MD 0209 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHWEST AR


Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of east-central/northeast TX into northwest
LA and southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 110808Z - 110945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in the severe threat is possible overnight, with
some potential for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have been generally disorganized early this
morning across northeast TX, with the bulk of deeper convection
appearing to be slightly elevated to the north of a expansive
convective outflow. However, convection has been gradually
increasing within a modest warm-advection regime to the south of the
outflow, within an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms. Increasing
ascent downstream of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently
moving across southwest TX may allow for gradually increasing storm
coverage from parts of east-central TX into the ArkLaTex. 

Some weakening of low-level flow has been noted on the KSHV VWP, but
effective SRH remains more than sufficient for a conditional tornado
threat, in addition to localized hail and damaging-wind potential.
Substantial uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
surface-based convection to mature within this regime, given the
current disorganization of convection and a tendency for the
low-level jet to become focused to the north of the region, but
watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support
potential for supercell development.

..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31729649 33209436 33839342 33829274 33419242 32809297
            32279372 31229554 31299636 31729649 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sat-Mon...

An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern
Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on
Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen
as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by
early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in
response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface
cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly
good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain
confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With
northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN
Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will
intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S.
on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better
quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop
from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front
tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear
less than 15 percent at this time.

This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday,
though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this
time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface
front.

...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed...

An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during
the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists
across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal
passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place,
precluding severe potential.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...Synopsis...
A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the
West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the
Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field
across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday.  Lee trough
development extending southward from the parent low over the
central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a
dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region.

...Central Plains...
Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed
boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest
winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High
Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of
20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire
weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions
where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align.

...Southern Plains...
A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve
across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad
west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model
guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon
aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer
heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK.

..Williams.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will persist over much of the U.S. on Friday.
At the surface, a cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of America
will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies,
and a cool/dry/stable airmass will be in place. The exception will
be across south FL where a seasonally moist boundary layer will
persist south of the diffuse surface boundary. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Peninsula.
However, modest vertical shear, poor lapse rates, and a lack of
large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2026

WW 0040 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 40

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PRX
TO 40 SSW RKR TO 25 NNW FSM TO 25 ESE GMJ TO 40 SW SZL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206

..DEAN..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 40 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-015-033-047-061-071-081-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-
110740-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CARROLL             CRAWFORD            
FRANKLIN             HOWARD              JOHNSON             
LITTLE RIVER         LOGAN               MADISON             
POLK                 SCOTT               SEBASTIAN           
SEVIER               WASHINGTON          


MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-109-119-141-145-
167-185-209-217-110740-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY                BARTON              BENTON              
CAMDEN               CEDAR               CHRISTIAN           
DADE                 DALLAS              GREENE              
HICKORY              JASPER              LAWRENCE

WW 40 TORNADO AR KS MO OK TX 110320Z - 110900Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 40
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western Arkansas
  Southeast Kansas
  Southwest Missouri
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1020 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas will track eastward and into the watch area through
the next several hours.  A few storms may develop supercell or
bowing structures capable of damaging winds and a tornado or two.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Joplin MO to 45 miles
west southwest of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW
35...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38...WW 39...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will translate eastward into the
Upper-Midwest/Lower Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday as
deep surface low pressure area moves into the eastern Great Lakes
region, while a ridge begins to build across the West. Strong
north-northwest winds behind a cold front will usher in a drier air
mass, raising fire weather concerns across portions of the central
and southern Plains Wednesday.

...Central and Southern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow will encompass much of the central and
southern Plains on Wednesday. Clearing skies will support a
well-mixed, but shallower boundary layer by late afternoon along
with enhanced downslope drying under increasing northwest flow aloft
across southeastern WY, far northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle.
However, expected precipitation, some in the form of snow, in
addition to much cooler temperatures could limit an otherwise
near-critical fire weather concern where northwest winds of 15-25
mph are anticipated across this area. Sufficient widespread RH
reductions below 20 percent during peak insolation continues to be a
limiting factor in a more substantial fire weather risk across
western KS and OK/TX Panhandles, with broad Elevated Highlights
maintained where northerly winds of 20-30 mph and dry fuels align. 
Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible across far
northwest TX/Rolling Plains area where afternoon RH briefly falls to
around 15 percent amid breezy north winds of up to 30 mph.  

...Far South Texas...
Elevated Highlights were added to portions of far southern TX for
Wednesday. Dry west-northwest flow supported by an exiting short
wave trough and eastward shunting of deeper Gulf moisture will
impact far southern TX Wednesday. Ongoing convection across central
TX is expected to diminish through Wednesday morning, limiting
precipitation across far southern TX. West-northwest winds of 10-20
mph behind an eastward mixing dry line, along with minimum daytime
RH of around 15% should support Elevated fire weather conditions in
dry fuels where minimal rainfall has occurred over the last several
days.

..Williams.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds are possible
across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into early
afternoon. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Southeast...

An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast will
pivot east, moving offshore the Atlantic Seaboard by late
Thursday/early Friday. Thursday morning, a cold front will extend
south/southwest from the Mid-Atlantic coast to southern AL.
Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the front within a
moist warm sector, mainly from the central portions of the Carolinas
into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Mid and low-level lapse
rates are forecast to remain modest (6-6.5 C/km), and limited
heating downstream of the front through midday/early afternoon will
be stunted by cloudiness. As a result, instability is expected to
remain modest (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE). Deep-layer westerly flow
parallel to the front will remain fairly robust, with 30-50 kt from
850-500 mb. Coupled with weak instability, a few stronger storms
producing mainly gusty winds will be possible across portions of
northern FL into southeast GA, and perhaps portions of coastal SC.
The front should move offshore by mid-afternoon (arcing
southwestward across north FL and the eastern Gulf). Overall, severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from
the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic...

Northern-stream trough is digging east-southeast across the northern
Rockies/High Plains early this morning and should advance into the
upper MS Valley by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates through the
base of the trough, then increases in intensity as it moves across
lower MI during the afternoon. Large-scale height falls will
overspread the Great Lakes/OH-TN Valley region as southwesterly flow
strengthens across the downstream warm sector. Latest model guidance
suggests the sharp cold front associated with this feature will
extend across lower MI-central IL-northern MO at the start of the
period. This boundary will serve as a primary focus for thunderstorm
development through the period. By mid day, the front will have
surged into northwest OH-central IN and modest boundary layer
heating is expected across the warm sector downstream.

Current thinking is modest destabilization will be noted across much
of the OH/TN Valley such that MLCAPE values should be on the order
of 1500 J/kg within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast
soundings support this and supercells are expected to develop, in
addition to possible line segments and clusters. Large hail is
possible with supercells, along with damaging winds and a risk for a
few tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the Middle
Atlantic by late afternoon.

...Gulf States...

Positive-tilt short-wave trough is shifting east across west
TX/northeast Mexico. However, this feature is expected to become
more negative tilt by late afternoon as it ejects toward the lower
Sabine River Valley. Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures are noted
with this feature and a focused 70kt midlevel jet is forecast to
translate along the Gulf coast during the latter half of the period.
Left-exit region of this jet will encourage ascent/deep convection.
Latest guidance suggests a surface low may evolve in response,
tracking from the upper TX coast, across southern LA into southern
MS by 12/06z. Some LLJ response is also expected which should aid
organized thunderstorms across the southern Gulf states. Strong
shear favors severe winds along with a risk for tornadoes. Some
consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities ahead of
this feature. This may be done in later outlooks if conditions
continue to evolve toward an organized squall line.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/11/2026