Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid
to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching
parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD,
run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of
spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough
approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated
by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the
past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the
Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio
Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights
from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS
appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of
these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of
continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a
closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on
D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over
the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to
Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for
indications of possible severe, probably focused in the
South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible over the shelf waters east of the Mid-Atlantic coast, as
the mid-level cold core of the amplified eastern trough overspreads
the northern periphery of the Gulf Stream.

..Grams.. 11/09/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
A large, amplified trough over the eastern CONUS will translate
eastward through the day on Monday, pushing a front off the Florida
coast by evening. Behind this front, a dry air mass will be present,
with 25-30% RH and 20-25 mph winds, and some pockets of dry fuels
across southern Georgia may prove receptive to fire spread. Some
uncertainty remains on how much precipitation will fall ahead of the
front passage on Sunday evening, and this may limit the fire weather
risk. However, enough confidence exists to delineate an Elevated
risk area over southern Georgia.

Across southern California, the LAX-DAG and LAX-WJF pressure
gradients remain around -5 mb for portions of the day on Monday,
which may induce periods of offshore flow and drying. RH is expected
to remain near 15-20% through the day with poor overnight recovery
the previous night. However, due to uncertainty on how long the wind
may persist, an Elevated area is not introduced at this time, though
this may be reevaluated in the future.

..Supinie.. 11/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS through
the day today, which should result in an expansive surface high
pressure area over the central CONUS. North of a surface cold front,
strong surface flow (20-25 mph) is expected across portions of
southern Texas. In the dry post-frontal air mass, RH is expected to
be in the 15-20% range across the region, and fuels are fairly dry,
so have maintained the Critical fire weather risk in this area.
Surrounding the Critical risk is an Elevated highlight that covers
portions of southeastern Texas and southwest Louisiana, where fuels
are modestly dry due to ongoing drought.

Additionally, the expansive high pressure is expected to tighten the
pressure gradients in southern California, with the LAX-DAG and
LAX-WJF pressure gradients nearing -5 mb during the day on Sunday.
This should induce downslope flow with sustained winds of 15-25 mph
with higher gusts, particularly in wind-prone gaps. With the
downslope drying, RH is expected to be near 15-20%. Fine fuels in
the region should dry with the lowered RH and be receptive to fire
spread, so have maintained an Elevated highlight for fire weather in
the area.

..Supinie.. 11/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...