MD 0581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL KY


Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...central IN into central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 280009Z - 280145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase this evening
across central Indiana into central Kentucky. A watch will be needed
soon.

DISCUSSION...A messy convective evolution is occurring across the
region this evening. Strong to severe storms near the OH River in
southern IN/north-central KY have left a relative minimum in MLCAPE
to the north, though MUCAPE and moderate vertical shear remain
sufficient for severe storms across the area. Some improvement of
the boundary layer could occur with time as warm advection and a
strengthening low-level jet overspread the region. However, it
remains unclear how much of a tornado risk may accompany the QLCS
shifting east across IL as it impinges on this more marginal and
convectively contaminated environment. Given an influx of better
upstream moisture with time and a favorable kinematic environment,
one or more watches are likely across the region.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...

LAT...LON   40598751 40408581 39868541 38808466 38028459 37558488
            37318580 37718654 38578712 39238748 40598751 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 272335Z - 280130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Attempts at convective initiation continue across northern
Mississippi. Weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on the
likelihood and coverage of severe storms, but the convective
environment will support intense convection if it can become
sustained.

DISCUSSION...Several attempts at convective initiation have been
noted across northern MS over the past 1-2 hours. However, weak
forcing for ascent and residual capping (noted in satellite imagery
and regional ACARs soundings) has precluded sustained deep
convection so far. Nonetheless, recent attempts have shown colder
cloud-top temperatures and higher VIL values compared to previous
attempts as well as occasional lightning strikes. These trends
suggests that the probability for sustained convection may be
increasing. 

If deep convection can become established, it will mature within an
environment featuring around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, effective shear near
40 knots, and 150-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per regional VWPs). This
thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will likely support
supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may be
needed if sustained convection appears eminent.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33209038 33319088 33479104 33819115 34229107 34729082
            34889050 34959032 35018760 34878726 34508702 34088706
            33668724 33378768 33178845 33108949 33209038 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

MD 0579 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 162... FOR SOUTHERN IL...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...EASTERN KY...NORTHWEST TN


Mesoscale Discussion 0579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...southern IL...far southeast MO...eastern
KY...northwest TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 162...

Valid 272318Z - 280045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of WW 162.
Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and a few towering cumulus are noted
in GOES-16 DCP imagery recently. A couple of towers now have
lightning occurring over far southern IL. This activity is occurring
within an axis of strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The
VWP from KPAH also shows wind profiles favorable for supercells with
strong tornado potential, indicated by enlarged, looping low-level
hodographs and 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2. Additional strengthening
of the nocturnal low-level jet is expected over the next couple of
hours. In tandem, forcing for ascent should increase across portions
of WW 162. This may support additional supercell
development/strengthening of current convective attempts in the
short term. Any storms the develop could strengthen and organize
quickly, posing a risk for very large hail and strong to intense
tornadoes.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   38268886 38208830 38038792 37768768 36968762 35868811
            35238829 35038869 35008966 35059057 35189086 35749078
            36219050 37259002 37698973 38128958 38268886 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

MD 0578 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... FOR SOUTHERN IN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KY


Mesoscale Discussion 0578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...southern IN into north-central KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...

Valid 272226Z - 280030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may persist for a few hours
late this afternoon/early this evening, posing mainly a risk for
hail and gusty winds. However, the severe risk may increase again
later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing across southern IN along outflow
north of the Ohio River. Training convection and cloud cover
extending southward in central KY is limiting instability and
resulting in at least weak inhibition. Some lingering risk for
marginally severe hail and gusty winds is expected over the next few
hours. Later this evening into tonight, airmass recovery is expected
as stronger warm advection overspreads the lower OH Valley and a
cold front approaching the Mid-MS Valley advances eastward. 

A relative lull in severe potential may develop in the short term
due to convective contamination. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159 could
be locally extended to cover the short term marginal severe
potential. However, increasing severe potential will likely have to
be addressed later this evening across portions of the region.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   39018496 38298486 37758538 37478628 37698668 38328706
            38848719 39188698 39398649 39298538 39018496 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 0160 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 160

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE UMN TO
20 SSW TBN TO 20 NW TBN TO 30 NNW ALN.

..LEITMAN..04/27/26

ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 160 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC005-013-025-027-033-049-051-079-083-101-117-119-121-133-135-
157-159-163-189-280040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOND                 CALHOUN             CLAY                
CLINTON              CRAWFORD            EFFINGHAM           
FAYETTE              JASPER              JERSEY              
LAWRENCE             MACOUPIN            MADISON             
MARION               MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
RANDOLPH             RICHLAND            ST. CLAIR           
WASHINGTON           


MOC043-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-123-125-149-153-161-169-
179-183-186-187-189-203-213-215-219-221-229-510-280040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHRISTIAN            CRAWFORD            DENT                
DOUGLAS              FRANKLIN            GASCONADE           
HOWELL               IRON                JEFFERSON           
MADISON              MARIES              OREGON

WW 160 TORNADO IL MO 271750Z - 280200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Illinois
  Eastern and Southern Missouri

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A remnant boundary left over by overnight/early morning
storms will be an initial focus for intense storm development
including supercells, with additional storms developing later
afternoon across broader parts of the region. All severe weather
hazards all possible, including strong/intense tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Springfield MO to
45 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

...Guyer

WW 161 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 271910Z - 280200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Arkansas
  Southeast Kansas
  Western Missouri
  Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorms should further
develop across the region within a very unstable environment in the
presence of strong deep-layer winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of Chanute KS to 45 miles north northeast of Springfield
MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...WW 160...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24025.

...Guyer

WW 0161 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 161

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N FYV TO
30 ESE SGF.

..LEITMAN..04/27/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-015-280040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CARROLL             


MOC009-209-280040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY                STONE               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 162 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO TN 271945Z - 280400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Southern Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense supercell development is expected to occur through
late afternoon, with a multi-round of severe storms expected to
occur across much of the region through this evening. As
deep-layer/low-level winds continue to strengthen, this includes the
potential for tornadoes, such of which are likely to be
strong/intense (EF2+/EF3+). Large hail and damaging winds are also
expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Evansville
IN to 10 miles east of Memphis TN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...WW
160...WW 161...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25025.

...Guyer

WW 0162 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0162 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 0163 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0163 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 163 TORNADO IL 272140Z - 280200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central Illinois

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A remnant boundary left over by overnight/early morning
storms will be an initial focus for intense storm development
including supercells, with additional storms developing later
afternoon across broader parts of the region. All severe weather
hazards all possible, including strong/intense tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Springfield IL to 25
miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...WW
161...WW 162...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

...Mosier

WW 0164 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 164 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 272355Z - 280700Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Far Northwest and Far Southwest Arkansas
  Southeast/East-Central Oklahoma
  North and Northeast Texas

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 655 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the
region this evening and tonight. Environmental conditions favor
strong to severe thunderstorms, with a primary risk for very large
hail. Some strong downdrafts are possible as well. The tornado risk
is low, given the modest low-level flow, but the expected supercell
mode suggests a low-probability risk still exists.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Tyler TX to 65 miles north of De Queen AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW
162...WW 163...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Mosier

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. for the latter
part of the week while a cold front a parent surface low shifts off
the Eastern Seaboard by Day 4/Thursday. Dry westerly flow south of
the advancing cold front should bring a fire weather threat to
portions of southern GA and northern FL on Day 3/Wednesday where
fuels remain dry, although some rainfall is expected to temporarily
alleviate fire weather concerns on Day 4/Thursday. Farther west, a
Pacific upper-level trough advances towards Baja CA midweek. Robust
mid-level flow ahead of this trough will bolster a downslope regime,
allowing for continued fire weather concerns across portions of the
Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. Widespread wetting rains are expected
across much of the Southern Plains as the Pacific trough moves into
the Southwest on Day 5/Thursday. Most of the eastern U.S. is
expected to receive rainfall through the week, reducing overall fire
weather concerns, although remaining dry pockets and thus receptive
fuels could remain particularly across central and northern Plains
and portions of the Southeast.

...Day 3/Wednesday...
...Southwest...
Enhanced mid-level flow will continue over the Southwest region
while a surface lee trough develops across the southern High Plains.
A modified, post frontal air mass filtering into OK, TX and eastern
NM will limit fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains,
with dry and breezy conditions impacting areas mainly along and west
of the central NM mountain ranges. 40% critical probabilities were
introduced across much of central and western NM into far eastern
AZ. 

...Southeast...
Increasing west/southwest winds of 10-15 mph, south of a surface
trough migrating into the upper OH River Valley, should evolve
across portions of the Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday. Delayed Gulf
moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer should support
minimum RH reductions of 20-30% across portions of southern GA into
northern FL by Wednesday afternoon. Fuels remain quite receptive
with ongoing active fires in the region. The dry and breezy
conditions along with a receptive fuel environment should yield
enhanced fire weather threat across southern GA and northern FL,
where 40% critical probabilities have been added.

..Williams.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
EAST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this
evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes
(EF3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large
to very large hail.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Marginal Risk back
into southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma to account for storms
initiating over the last hour.

The Moderate Risk remains unchanged with this update. The morning
MCS is now moving through eastern Illinois/southern Indiana. Further
west in Missouri and western Illinois, modifying remnant outflow
remains near the St. Louis Metro. Cumulus south of this boundary
across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, cumulus within
the warm sector is deepening. Increasing MLCAPE/steepening lapse
rates are nosing northward in southern central Missouri and
south-central Illinois.

Just to the west of the Mississippi River, radar shows occasional
attempts at initiation within the open warm sector. While the
details continue to evolve, it likely that a corridor of conditional
threat for strong-intense tornadoes will develop from the Missouri
Bootheel into southern Illinois/western Kentucky. Within this region
strong daytime heating has led to a volatile air mass, with moderate
to strong MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear. VAD
profiles frm PAH (Paducah, KY) and LSX (St. Louis, MO) indicate a
rich SRH environment of around 200-300 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer. It
is likely that supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong-intense tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds. Will develop across this region soon. See MCD571 for
additional information.

The conditional threat for strong tornadoes will extend as far south
as the Arklatex into portions of western Tennessee. Through time,
storm mode will shift to become linear with the southward moving
front, which will bring an increase into the evening of damaging
wind threat. Line embedded tornadoes, some of which may be strong,
will continue to be a threat into the evening.

..Thornton.. 04/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley...
Forecast scenario largely unchanged in that a very active
severe-weather/tornado day is expected regionally, especially into
late afternoon and this evening. Initially, a relatively long-lived
linear cluster of convection persists at late morning across
east-central/south-central Illinois, with additional initially
elevated storms on its eastern/southern periphery, moving from
eastern Illinois into Indiana, with severe hail and damaging winds
persisting as early day hazards.

Over time, air mass will continue to moisten and rapidly destabilize
along/south of the MCS-associated outflow from central Missouri into
south-central Illinois. A mid/upper-level trough will eject
northeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and
middle Mississippi Valley through the period. Low-level mass
response will encourage the primary surface low to consolidate
across Minnesota/Wisconsin by this evening, with a warm front
effectively delineated by the morning convection.

Strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with a 50-70
kt mid-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector by peak
heating, and a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will both
provide ample low-level and deep-layer shear to support supercells.
Initially discrete surface-based development appears likely to occur
into mid-afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South ahead
of the surface cold front, and perhaps along weak low-level
confluence zones in the open warm sector including generally near
the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers southward into the
Mid-South.

These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for
tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to
intense tornadoes (EF2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of
Missouri into Illinois along/near the effective front. This strong
tornado potential will also likely extend farther south within the
warm sector into the Mid-South.

By early evening, convection will probably tend to consolidate into
clusters of supercells and then more linear segments with some
increase in damaging wind potential aside from large hail and a
continued multi-mode tornado risk tonight.

...ArkLaTex into Texas...
While storm coverage may trend lesser with southwest extent, the
potential for at least isolated intense storms will exist across the
region. Supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and
occasional damaging winds are expected. Increasing low-level
warm/moist advection tonight could foster additional robust
thunderstorms along the retreating dryline and eventually the
southward-moving cold front.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...

...Southern Plains...
Deep layer westerly flow under a mid-level jet over the Southwest
and Southern Plains aided by enhanced downslope drying is still
expected to promote a broad fire weather threat across much of NM,
south-central CO and west TX Tuesday. Widespread west to southwest
winds of around 15 mph coupled with RH falling to 10-20% amid dry
fuels will increase fire spread potential amid receptive fuels. More
intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions close to
10% will yield critical fire weather conditions across east-central
and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Minor adjustments
to Critical and surrounding Elevated Highlights were made given
latest forecast guidance.

...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
Increasing low-level southerly flow ahead of surface trough and cold
front will evolve across the Northeast Tuesday. Mid and upper-level
cloud cover from convection across the Midwest/Ohio River Valley
today will overspread the region tonight into Tuesday. Despite the
cloud cover, tightening surface pressure gradients will support a
modest southerly wind of 10-15 mph, with localized/terrain enhanced
20 mph corridors likely. The stronger southerly winds along with RH
reductions of 25-35% (locally 20%) are expected by early afternoon.
These dry and breezy conditions will align with receptive fuels to
promote an enhanced fire weather concern across upstate NY and
western VT, where Elevated Highlights have been introduced.

..Williams.. 04/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue into Tuesday across
parts of eastern NM and western TX. Early-morning water-vapor
imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave over central CA. This
feature will quickly progress eastward into the Southwest over the
next 48 hours, which will result in surface pressure falls and
increasing westerly gradient winds across the southern High Plains
Tuesday afternoon. 

Latest forecast consensus is that wind speeds will generally
increase into the 15-20 mph range for most of the region. Given an
antecedent dry air mass and several preceding days of dry/windy
conditions, fuels will remain stressed through Tuesday and should
support some degree of fire spread. Additionally, increasing
downslope flow will maintain dry conditions with RH minimums in the
10-20% range likely. Critical fire weather conditions appear most
probable in the lee of the more prominent southern Rockies mountain
ranges where terrain enhancement of flow under the upper jet will
promote sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as from west-central
Texas to the central Gulf Coast, mainly Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...West-central TX into the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast...
A substantial buoyancy reservoir is expected to persist from parts
of central/south TX toward the lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Due to
substantial early-week convection, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the potential for an ongoing isolated severe threat in the
morning, and the location of the composite front/outflow and
potential redevelopment during the afternoon and evening. 

With favorable instability and deep-layer shear, the environment
will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, including
potential for large hail and locally damaging wind. Large-scale
ascent is likely to be displaced north of the primary surface
boundary and strongest instability, so storm coverage remains
uncertain, but isolated supercells and/or small clusters will be
possible along/south of the front. An increase in severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of this region,
depending on observational and guidance trends regarding boundary
placement and anticipated storm coverage. 

...Allegheny Plateau to the Mid Atlantic...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. An attendant
surface low will move from the upper OH Valley toward the Delmarva
region, with trailing front extending southwestward into parts of
the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia by afternoon. The expectation
for substantial early-day cloudiness and precipitation continues to
result in uncertainty regarding potential for appreciable
destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization
can occur, then favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear
related to the approaching shortwave trough could support organized
storms, with a threat of damaging wind and possibly some hail. 

Due to the lingering uncertainties regarding destabilization, a
broad Level 1/Marginal Risk is maintained with this outlook. An
eventual increase in severe probabilities will be possible for parts
of the region, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

WW 159 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 271610Z - 272300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Illinois
  Southern and Central Indiana
  Northern Kentucky

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
  600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Elevated storms will spread generally eastward and
potentially pose a hail risk while damaging wind risk may increase
into western/southern Indiana as well as an upstream linear cluster
of storms moves into the region.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east of
Lafayette IN to 20 miles west southwest of Owensboro KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer