SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO
SOUTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind are possible tonight
through Saturday morning across parts of the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Forecast largely remains as advertised with a corridor of generally
marginal severe hail and wind potential from parts of west TX to
southeast KS. See MCD 0071 for short-term discussion across the TX
South Plains. Overall severe threat might increase overnight as an
expanding swath of storms occurs with strengthening large-scale
ascent downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough over the
Desert Southwest. Some models, most notably recent HRRR runs, are
insistent on a meso-beta corridor of sustained storm structures
developing in the pre-dawn hours in the Permian Basin vicinity of
west TX. The 00Z MAF observed sounding confirmed a robust speed
shear profile above 800 mb, which is expected to remain
conditionally conducive to a couple mid-level supercells capable of
large hail through early morning. However, the influx of low-level
moisture from the south will remain modest and limit available
buoyancy. In addition, storm mode should remain cluster-dominated,
eventually evolving into a linear structure by 12Z towards the TX
Big Country. These factors may curtail greater severe hail coverage
overnight.

..Grams.. 02/14/2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 01:00:03 UTC 2026.

MD 0071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140028Z - 140300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal threat for severe gusts and hail may develop
across parts of west Texas this evening. The threat is expected too
be to isolated for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over west Texas. Ahead of this feature, scattered
thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of hours to the
north and west of Lubbock. In the vicinity of these storms,
mesoscale analysis shows a small pocket of instability in west Texas
with SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has
0-6 km shear in the 75 to 80 knot range, with some speed shear in
the mid-levels. This could support weak rotation within the stronger
cells. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km, which could be enough for isolated marginally severe hail. A
strong wind gust would also be possible. However, the weak
instability will be a limiting factor, and any severe threat should
remain very isolated through mid to late evening.

..Broyles/Hart.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33530301 34150293 34530270 34740234 34820190 34780110
            34550064 34140050 33340064 32940092 32750127 32670175
            32680226 32700261 32840285 33130300 33530301 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level troughing regime is likely to evolve across
the western U.S., with several short wave features ejecting into the
Plains through next week. Enhanced and broad mid-level flow over the
southern U.S. along with subsequent lee cyclogenesis events are
expected to a bring multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the
central and southern Plains through at least Day 7/Thursday. 

...Day 3/Sunday - Central Plains and Colorado Front Range...
Increasing mid-level winds over the Southern Rockies ahead of a
broad trough approaching the West Coast, along with surface trough
development across the Northern Plains should favor dry, downslope
flow across the CO Front Range. The dry and breezy conditions will
likely align with dry fuels to support an increasing fire weather
threat for the Front Range where 40% critical probabilities have
been introduced. Enhanced fire weather concerns remain farther
northeast across western NE and adjacent areas where a broader
west-southwest wind field associated with the surface trough/low
aligns with dry conditions and fuels.

...Day 4/Monday - Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough heads into the West Coast on
Day 4/Monday. Increasing mid-level flow on the nose of a pronounced
mid-level jet along with continued lee troughing should promote dry
and breezy conditions across portions of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle on Monday. The dry, downslope-favored flow from the
west-southwest along with minimal preceding rainfall and abundant
dry fuels necessitated introduction of a 40% critical probability
area for eastern NM and the TX Panhandle vicinity.

...Day 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
Forecast confidence is increasing for a more expansive fire weather
threat for the southern and central Plains for Day 5/Tuesday.
Pronounced surface cyclogenesis across the central Plains along with
an impinging 90-100 knot jet core at the base of a mid-level trough
will likely produce a broad fire weather concern from southeastern
WY, eastern CO and particularly across the southern Plains. A 70%
critical probability area has been introduced into far eastern NM
and the northwest TX Panhandle where alignment of deep-layer
southwesterly flow (including critical low relative humidity),
dry/receptive fuels and absence of recent precipitation is most
likely. A dry, downslope regime should remain over the southern High
Plains on Day 6/Wednesday imparting additional fire weather threats
to eastern NM and the TX Panhandle area. A similar synoptic setup as
Day 5/Tuesday likely emerges for Day 7/Thursday, where another
mid-level short wave and attendant jet max enters the Southern
Plains. An emergent deepening cyclone across the Central Plains
should yield expanding dry, southwest flow across the Southern
Plains where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced.

..Williams.. 02/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...