SPC Forecast Products
SPC Nov 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 24 Nov 2025 at 10:27:30 AM CST
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning.  Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday.  This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.

Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border.  Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range.  The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail.  The threat will spread  this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/24/2025

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 24 16:28:01 UTC 2025
Published: Mon, 24 Nov 2025 at 10:27:08 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 24 16:28:01 UTC 2025.

SPC MD 2222
Published: Mon, 24 Nov 2025 at 10:27:02 AM CST
MD 2222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
MD 2222 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast into and east-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241620Z - 241745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
southeast into east-central TX. All severe hazards are possible,
including at least isolated tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
within a low-level confluence band within the free warm sector. The
16Z mesoanalysis shows the approach of a mid-level trough over far
west TX, which should provide increasing upper-support for
thunderstorm development through early afternoon. Meanwhile,
adequate insolation is contributing to boundary layer
destabilization ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Surface
temperatures are already warming into the 70s F, with upper
60s/lower 70s F dewpoints gradually spreading north-northeast across
central into eastern TX. Currently, MLCAPE west of the Houston metro
is reaching the 1500-2500 J/kg range within the moist axis, as 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the region. Deep-layer and
low-level shear appears strongest closer to the nose of the better
moisture plume (i.e. the warm front), and this is expected to remain
the case through the afternoon.

The current thinking is that ongoing warm sector storms may continue
to fluctuate in intensity with boundary layer destabilization,
assuming they do not outpace the better moisture. Large hail and
damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. The best
chance for tornado development will be with the more discrete storms
that can parallel the warm-frontal regime. It is unclear precisely
when storms will peak in severity. However, given the increase in
convective trends, a Tornado Watch issuance may eventually be
needed.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   29719760 30999708 31519598 31629507 31559422 31349373
            31109358 30769366 30319382 29959434 29529515 29309583
            29139644 29109694 29189720 29719760 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Mon, 24 Nov 2025 at 08:54:26 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.

..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today.
Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel
status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been
previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying
cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong
westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an
influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH
reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the
Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Nov 24, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 24 Nov 2025 at 06:40:21 AM CST
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains
this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected
to track into AR by evening.  At the surface, a warm front currently
extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast.  This boundary
will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately
unstable air mass spreading inland.  A combination of diurnal
destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to
convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX.  These
initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty
winds and a tornado or two.  

As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level
shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of
severe storms through much of the night across central LA and
southern MS.  Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025

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