SPC Forecast Products
SPC Feb 17, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 at 03:53:52 AM CST
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an
initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region
at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a
supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the
south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson
Bay.  It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued,
with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic
through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern
periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave
perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing
progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of
the surface frontal zone.  However, further moistening along it
could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps
upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could
pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind.  While
severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than
15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could
change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week
appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the
Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley.  Beneath the confluent
regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface
ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Gulf Basin.  Associated low-level drying and
stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential
through the remainder of the period.

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 17 09:54:01 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 at 03:53:05 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 17 09:54:01 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Feb 17 09:54:01 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 at 03:53:04 AM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 17 09:54:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Feb 17, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 at 02:33:58 AM CST
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
evening.

...Discussion...
Considerable spread persists within latest model output concerning
short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North
America through this period.  In general, though, guidance indicates
that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift
inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while
being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great
Lakes and Appalachians vicinity.  The center of a subtropical high
is likely to shift from the Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean,
with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of
the Southeast.

One or two short wave perturbations emerging from the Intermountain
West may be in the process of progressing into and across the
central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity at the
outset of the period.  The lower amplitude lead perturbation may
continue into and across the Ohio Valley during the day, as the
stronger upstream perturbation pivots across the mid to lower
Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region.  This appears a bit
to the north, and at somewhat lower amplitudes, than what prior runs
of at least some model output has been indicating.  However, this is
still likely to be accompanied by a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
which may undergo one or two periods of additional deepening while
migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great
Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
Latest model output continues to indicate better low-level moisture
return (but still marginal for severe convective development) to
portions of the warm sector of the developing cyclone as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley Thursday
afternoon.  It appears that this may include a corridor of mid 50s
to near 60F surface dew points advecting northeast and east of the
confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.  However, it now
appears that much of this moistening may occur beneath relatively
warm mid/upper levels, associated with subsidence to the south of
the upper jet axis.

This is not reflected in the latest RRFS forecast soundings, which
indicate rather potent thermodynamic profiles evolving by Thursday
afternoon across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity, in terms of both
conditional and convective instability.  A general consensus of
other model output suggests the development of much more modest
CAPE.  This includes NAM forecast soundings, which depict CAPE at or
below 500 J/kg where the low-level moistening occurs, mostly due to
low equilibrium levels below the 500 mb level.  It remains unclear
if this environment will become supportive of convection capable of
producing lightning.

Even so, NAM forecast soundings still depict boundary-layer based
CAPE supportive of low-topped convection which could acquire
supercellular structure in the presence of strong cloud bearing
shear.  Aided by the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level
 hodographs beneath 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, and a relatively
moist boundary-layer with steep lapse rates, a few tornadoes appear
possible, in addition to small to marginally severe hail.  The
evolution of a small organizing cluster may still not be out of the
question, which probably would be accompanied by better potential
for damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 at 02:15:26 AM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
A second, pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader and
active upper troughing pattern, is poised to eject into the central
Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). A surface low will traverse the Upper
Mississippi Valley while a second surface low develops and quickly
deepens over the central High Plains. Strong isallobaric flow over
portions of the Midwest, and downslope flow along lee of the
southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, will promote
appreciable wildfire spread conditions over both locales.

...Southern High Plains...
The deepening of the surface low will augment downslope flow by
afternoon, resulting in widespread sustained southwesterly surface
winds around 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours.
Fuels in this region continue to cure given a lack of appreciable
rainfall prior exposure to dry and windy days, warranting the
introduction of Critical highlights for the second day in a row.

...Portions of the Midwest...
As a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes, sustained westerly
surface winds will reach the 15-25 mph range while advecting dry air
from the west. RH may reduce to 15-25 percent by afternoon peak
heating. Given an appreciable lack of rainfall from eastern
Nebraska, Iowa, and western/northern Illinois over the past month,
the aforementioned dry and windy conditions may certainly support
wildfire spread, necessitating high-end Elevated highlights. If a
greater consensus among guidance members can depict 20+ mph winds
better overlapping with 20 percent or lower RH, Critical highlights
will be needed.

..Squitieri.. 02/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 at 01:46:24 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
The first in a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the
Plains today, resulting in the rapid deepening of a surface low over
the northern Plains, with pronounced surface troughing over the
remainder of the Plains states. The combination of strong
isallobaric and downslope flow associated with this weather pattern
will promote a broad area of surface conditions highly supportive of
significant, dangerous wildfire-spread potential.

...Central High Plains...
As the surface low deepens over the northern Plains, sustained
westerly winds should peak in the 30-40 mph range, with higher gusts
for several hours, coinciding with boundary-layer mixing and
subsequent RH reductions, down to the 10-15 percent range in spots,
warranting widespread Critical highlights. Extremely Critical
highlights remain in place where guidance consensus continues to
show the longest term overlap of 30+ mph sustained westerly winds
and at least 15 percent or lower RH atop fuels with ERCs approaching
or exceeding the 90th percentile. Such conditions will support the
potential for very rapid and dangerous wildfire spread.

...Southern High Plains...
Widespread westerly sustained winds of at least 25 to 30 mph should
become common by afternoon as a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak
overspreads the region. Concern remains for mid- and high-level
cloud cover to accompany the jet streak, which may dampen RH
reductions (i.e. 25-30 percent), particularly west of the Amarillo,
TX longitude. Even with a more moist scenario, the strong winds atop
very dry fuels will compensate to support Critical wildfire-spread
conditions. East of Amarillo, RH should drop to at least 15-20
percent, suggesting that high-end Critical conditions will develop
and support significant, rapid wildfire-spread potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Feb 17, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 16 Feb 2026 at 11:52:37 PM CST
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for
thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday
through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to
remain generally weak.

...Discussion...
Notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning
short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic
regime evolving inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi
Valley by Wednesday.  

In general, one initial perturbation and associated surface
troughing, pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to
undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night.  It
is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing
for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain
sufficient strength to support continuing convective development
capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower
Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday.  This seems likely to
remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little
risk for severe weather before diminishing.

Upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada,
as another digs toward the Oregon/northern California coast. 
Beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that
boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak
destabilization supportive of convective development across the
eastern Great Basin through the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming
during the day.  It doesn't seem entirely out of the question that
some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning,
particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above
freezing.  However, this probably will remain very sparse in
coverage.  Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally
sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger
near Pacific coastal areas, mainly from Oregon into and just south
of San Francisco Bay. 

It does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the
West will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado
Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through
Wednesday night.  However, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer,
across and east of the southern Great Plains is forecast to maintain
a pronounced westerly component through the period.  Modest inland
moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer
appears likely to remain focused east of the lower Mississippi
Valley, into the Southeast, around the western periphery of
low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic.  It is possible that a weak
mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, and/or low-level warm
advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, could support weak thunderstorm
development Wednesday night.  But, probabilities appear near or
below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the
present time.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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SPC Feb 17, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 16 Feb 2026 at 11:37:55 PM CST
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of
California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into
the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.

...Pacific Coastal States...
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest
today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This
feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by
12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will
exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool
surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop
southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will
largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited
heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest
convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,
but severe storms are not currently forecast.

...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a
strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling
aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western
MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the
afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While
surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen
low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may
hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a
greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops
near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.
Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail
with this elevated activity.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026

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