
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably. Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore, especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few hours. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this evening. Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the CONUS. ...Southwest D3/Monday... Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting locations to the east (NM). ...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday... A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front. ...Eastern NM D6/Thursday... Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday, though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least eastern NM may be needed. ..Barnes.. 02/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more