SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
On the backside of a positively tilted midlevel trough moving
eastward across the Rockies, expansive surface high pressure will
build over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will result in
an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern CA, while a
belt of moderate midlevel northerly flow overspreads the area. These
factors will contribute to breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface
winds amid 20-30 percent RH -- with a focus over the typical
wind-prone mountains and valleys of eastern Ventura and western Los
Angeles Counties. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible where any marginally receptive fuels are exposed to the
dry/breezy conditions.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 30 07:43:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 30 07:43:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A cold post-frontal air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across
the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow
(Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS
tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the
Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air
advection regime will become established across the Southeast,
resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg
MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded
thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River
Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf
Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front
and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along
with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the
00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline
in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat
cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus
strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been
introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast and southern
Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Severe storm potential is low over the CONUS today. A broad upper
trough over the Midwest will shift eastward with shortwave ridging
in its wake. A second shortwave trough will intensify over the
southern Rockies as flow aloft becomes more zonal over the eastern
half of the US. At the surface, low pressure over the Great Lakes
will quickly lift northward into Canada as a strong cold front
sweeps south toward the US Gulf/Atlantic Coasts. High pressure and
an arctic air mass behind the front will keep much of the US hostile
to thunderstorm development.

The only exception will be where modest instability can develop near
the southeastern FL Peninsula, eastern Atlantic waters and the
immediate Gulf Coast ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms
that develop will be aided by modest mid-level southwesterly flow
atop the surface frontal zone. These storms should move quickly
offshore before midday as the front continues surging south.
Residual buoyancy inland will become increasingly removed with time
as high pressure and resulting offshore flow intensifies. Given the
very weak instability and short residence time of onshore
convection, severe weather is not expected.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/30/2025