
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening. On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment. On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail may also develop in the southern High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing. ..Broyles.. 04/07/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia... Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35% during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia; however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future issuances. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains. This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15% range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however. ..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains. ...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle... Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations over the past 24-48 hours. ..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more