Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Progressive zonal flow continues across the central US this weekend transitioning into a higher amplitude pattern early next week characterized by deep troughing over the East and a strong ridge over the West. On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig southward into the central and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough will track through the Great Lakes region by the end of Day 4/Monday before lifting northeast on Day 5/Tuesday. Simultaneously, a robust upper-level ridge will amplify over the western CONUS. By mid-to-late week, the upper high is forecast over southern Arizona, with much above normal geopotential heights over much of the western CONUS. On Day 3/Sunday, strong northwest flow on the backside of the upper-level trough will maintain a corridor of strong winds and persistent dry air across almost all of New Mexico and much of west Texas. Both of the 40% and 70% probability areas were expanded to account for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the tightening surface pressure gradient associated with the advancing cold front. Elevated to critical conditions will be ongoing in the morning across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally, portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and northeast New Mexico may see two periods of elevated/critical conditions interrupted by the frontal passage. The wind shift from westerly to northerly is of concern, especially with any ongoing wildfires. Meanwhile, the central and northern Plains will see a transition to much more stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler temperatures, allowing for a brief few days of relief from recent critical conditions. On Day 4/Monday, breezy and dry conditions are expected to persist across eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass remains dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface winds are likely to remain below elevated thresholds. The 40% area was expanded slightly over south Texas where northerly winds will precede and overlap with dry air behind the cold front. On Day 5/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with north to northwest upper-level flow over much of the central US. With resultant increased boundary-layer mixing, another day of widespread critical conditions will be possible over portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal environment over Georgia, Florida, and portions of the Carolinas, where fuels are driest, will provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions. This area will continue to be watched closely over the coming days. Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period. Regardless of winds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH would suggest extended burn periods in areas with receptive fuels. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
