Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near
and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale
mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from
perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. 
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream
troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.

Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to
another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week
into next weekend.  It appears that this will occur before Gulf
boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry
intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist
return flow.

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 6 09:09:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 6 09:09:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging
from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will
continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the
Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period.  To the
southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is
forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western
Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin,
downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.

Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across
the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some
downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean
and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front
through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
Basin.

At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing
through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to
fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Florida...
It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to
limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the
southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at
least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast
coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on
D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions
across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high
pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US,
with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of
receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected.

..Thornton.. 12/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central
Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains.
The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support
enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east
central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap
of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not
receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions.

..Thornton.. 12/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the
central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild
offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while
being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this
period.  Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the
larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay
vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while
at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within
another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast.

This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level
height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late
Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin.  Downstream, a
weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving
frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with
subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western
Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly
across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday
evening.  However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly
low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary
layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and
become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening. 
It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of
thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold
front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.

At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the
environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe
weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or
two.  With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings
do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb.  At this
point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to
introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other
model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...

Mean long-wave trough is expected to remain centered across the
eastern Plains/MS Valley through the day1 period. Negligible height
changes are expected across lower latitudes which will result in a
synoptic front oscillating across the northern/central FL Peninsula.
This boundary will serve as the primary focus for the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance is not
particularly aggressive in air mass destabilization across the
Peninsula, but showers and a few thunderstorms should develop
along/north of the boundary as deep westerly flow provides weak lift
atop the frontal zone. While deep-layer shear is strong, weak
buoyancy and poor lapse rates do not support robust or organized
severe updrafts.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2025