
Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...Far southern WV...western VA...far eastern
TN...western NC and SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 160821Z - 161015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds will continue with an
eastward-advancing squall line. A downstream watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented QLCS is tracking eastward across
eastern KY, TN, and northern GA at around 40 kt. While
boundary-layer moisture and surface-based buoyancy is limited ahead
of the line (especially with northward extent), very strong
deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the leading gust front
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Given the linear mode, damaging wind gusts will continue to
be the primary concern, though an embedded mesovortex tornado cannot
be entirely ruled out -- given strong low-level shear. A downstream
watch will likely be issued soon.
..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
LAT...LON 37368226 37658211 37808159 37818110 37658062 37348038
36868049 36188085 35288138 34708199 34478252 34608331
34768396 34988411 35378396 35878329 36568263 37368226
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...Far western NC/SC...northern/western GA...southeast
AL...and western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160737Z - 160930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Monitoring environmental and convective trends for a
possible downstream watch. The primary concern would be damaging
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data depicts a
northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS advancing eastward across eastern
TN, far northwest GA, and northern/central AL -- with additional
isolated thunderstorms attempting to intensify ahead of the line in
AL. This activity continues to pose a risk of damaging gusts and a
couple tornadoes. Downstream, the pre-convective environment is
characterized by weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy (higher
with southward extent) and around 50 kt of line-parallel 0-6 km
shear (per regional VWP). This, along with a 40-50 kt low-level jet,
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Despite some uncertainty in the severe risk with eastward
and northward extent, the potential for damaging gusts and perhaps
an embedded tornado or two may continue, and a new downstream watch
may be needed.
..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30678713 32798629 34798451 35138393 35098325 34828279
34448267 33918281 33018340 31068497 30458564 30258644
30328696 30678713
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ADM TO 15 NNW GYI TO 20 NNE DUA TO 15 SSW MLC TO 10 E MLC TO 30 S MKO TO 15 S MKO. ..CHALMERS..03/05/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-061-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-149-050340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HOWARD LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-005-013-023-061-077-079-089-127-135-050340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-159-181-221-223-231-251-257-277-Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Georgia Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina Western Virginia Southern West Virginia * Effective this Monday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms will track eastward across the watch area through the early morning. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Anderson SC to 30 miles northeast of Bluefield WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 62...WW 63... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...HartRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW TYS TO 55 SE LOZ TO 25 ESE JKL TO 30 WNW HTS. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC071-095-115-119-127-133-153-159-193-195-160940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT LAWRENCE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE TNC009-019-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-155-163-171-179- 160940- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CARTER COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON JOHNSON SEVIER SULLIVAN UNICOI WASHINGTON VAC051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-160940-Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Tennessee
Southwestern Virginia
Southwestern West Virginia
* Effective this Monday morning from 1240 AM until 700 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will move from west to east across the Watch
area overnight. Scattered damaging gusts associated with the more
intense portions of bowing segments and inflections within the
squall line will be the primary hazard. A brief tornado is
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Jackson
KY to 15 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...WW 58...WW
59...WW 60...WW 61...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
24045.
...Smith
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 ..CHALMERS..03/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-049-065-071-075-089-101-115-121-129-135-137-141- 050040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE FULTON IZARD JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON POPE RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-050040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNIONRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Florida Panhandle Northern and Western Georgia * Effective this Monday morning from 310 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will overspread the region through the morning hours, with the strongest cells posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southeast of Pensacola FL to 50 miles north northwest of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 62... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...HartRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW JKL TO 30 W CMH TO 30 NW MFD. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-081-089-135-160740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GRANT GREENUP LEWIS OHC001-041-045-047-049-073-079-087-089-097-129-131-141-145-163- 160740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HOCKING JACKSON LAWRENCE LICKING MADISON PICKAWAY PIKE ROSS SCIOTO VINTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LFT TO 30 SW MEI TO 30 NW GAD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261 ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-019-021-023-025-047-055-063-065-073-091-105-115- 117-119-121-125-129-131-160740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE DALLAS ETOWAH GREENE HALE JEFFERSON MARENGO PERRY ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC005-063-103-105-117-160740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTONRead more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20% will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BHM TO 20 NE CSV TO 15 WSW LOZ. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC049-071-095-160740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEKALB JACKSON MARSHALL GAC015-047-055-083-111-115-123-129-213-227-295-313-160740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON MURRAY PICKENS WALKER WHITFIELD TNC007-011-035-065-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-153-160740- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLEDSOE BRADLEY CUMBERLANDRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 59
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Far Northwest Georgia
Middle into Eastern Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Broken bands of severe thunderstorms will move across the
Watch area this evening into the overnight. A few stronger cells
embedded within the bands will potentially pose the greatest severe
risk. A few tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of
strong tornadoes, and severe gusts 60-80 mph are the main threats
with the stronger thunderstorms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Nashville TN to
35 miles south southwest of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55...WW
56...WW 57...WW 58...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Smith
Read more

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... ...Synopsis... Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast. ...New Mexico and far west Texas... Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area. ...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast... As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on Sunday. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CSV TO 35 SSW LUK. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC017-049-181-160740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CLARK NICHOLAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will prevail, with high pressure at the surface. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026Read more