MD 2272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST


Mesoscale Discussion 2272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas affected...Northern/Central California Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260011Z - 260215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a midlevel vort lobe
is located about 125mi southwest of EKA, lifting northeast toward
the northern CA coast. Radar data supports this with an arcing band
of convection, and embedded lightning, extending from the north side
of this vort, arcing southeast to about 100mi west of MRY. Strong
midlevel jet will translate inland over the next several hours in
association with this band of convection. While buoyancy is not
particularly strong, SBCAPE is on the order of 200-300 J/kg, and
wind profiles favor organized updrafts. Current thinking is gusty
winds may accompany this strongly forced band of convection as it
surges inland this evening; however, current thinking is a severe
thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

..Darrow/Hart.. 12/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA...

LAT...LON   35302183 40082465 40302316 35812044 35302183 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 26 00:43:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of
the Central and Northern Valleys.

...Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the
Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area
over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells
around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To
the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to
approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding
shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor
both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells
and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will
maintain the Marginal Risk.

For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.

..Jewell.. 12/26/2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.

...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.

..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.

..Williams.. 12/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...