SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will deamplify as an upper trough moves
offshore the eastern U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front
will extend across the northern Gulf into the FL Peninsula Saturday
morning. As the front develops southward through the day, isolated
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern
FL Peninsula. Modest instability and weak vertical shear will
preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a dry and stable
airmass will reside across much of the CONUS in the wake of the
prior cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/26/2026

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No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 26 18:46:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 26 18:46:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

The Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northeastward
across parts of northeast and south-central KS respectively. In
south-central KS, temperatures should continue climbing into the
middle/upper 90s while RH falls to around 20 percent ahead of the
front this afternoon. These warm/dry conditions, coupled with
breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds, will favor critical
conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. These conditions will
be further exacerbated by the frontal passage and abrupt northerly
wind shift this evening.

The Critical area was also expanded into southeast CO and southwest
KS, where temperatures are already in the lower 90s amid
single-digit RH and breezy westerly surface winds. Given the
pre-frontal warm/dry/breezy conditions atop receptive fuels and the
strong post-frontal wind shift this evening, the expansion is
warranted.

Farther west, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded
slightly westward along the Front Range. Shallow cumulus is already
developing over the high terrain, and as midlevel moisture and
large-scale ascent impinge on the area, an isolated storm or two
will be possible over the dry fuels.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Weinman.. 03/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over northern
Mexico and West Texas today as a subtle, mid-level shortwave trough
shifts eastward across the Four Corners region before ejecting
eastward across the central Great Plains. A second mid-level
shortwave trough will shift southeastward across the upper Great
Lakes region. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
southward across the Great Plains and Great Basin while a deepening
surface low develops southward in the lee of the Rockies.

...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Dry, downslope flow will be favored ahead of the advancing cold
front, with sustained west-southwest winds of 20-25 mph expected to
overlap very low RH of 5-15% across much of central/eastern New
Mexico into portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, northwestern
Oklahoma, and extreme southern Kansas. Farther south, very low RH of
5-10% will overlap westerly winds of around 20 mph (locally higher
in terrain favored areas) in the lee of the Sacramento Mountains.
With record breaking temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F
aiding in rapid drying of finer fuels through the afternoon,
critical fire weather conditions are expected across these areas.
The cold front pushing south across the southern Plains will bring
an abrupt northerly wind shift to the region through early Friday,
with potential impacts to existing wildfires or potential new
ignitions.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected farther north across
much of southeastern Colorado and western Kansas where westerly
surface winds of around 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap receptive
fuels and RH of 10-15%. Farther to the east across portions of
south-central Kansas, western Oklahoma, and into portions of Texas
Big Country, RH values are forecast to be more marginal (ranging
between 20-30%) owing to some northward moisture return. However,
strong south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph and receptive
fuels should still support elevated fire weather concerns. A strong
low-level jet (30-40+ kts at 850 mb) coupled with boundary layer
mixing will also support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph across
portions of this area, especially from western Oklahoma into
south-central Kansas.

...Eastern Great Basin...
Sustained westerly surface winds will increase to 15-25 mph (locally
higher) ahead of the approaching cold front amid drying fuels and RH
values of 10-20%. This will support elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of the eastern Great Basin southward into portions
of the Southwest.

...Southwest to south-central Kansas...
A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern Kansas
before the cold front arrives late this afternoon. The cold front,
impinging mid-level shortwave trough, and some mid-level moisture
may support the development of isolated, dry high-based showers and
thunderstorms across portions of southwest and south-central Kansas
by late this afternoon/evening. Minimal precipitation over a very
receptive fuelscape preceded by record to near-record high
temperatures near 100 F should support a higher ignition efficiency
across the area. 

...Northeastern/east-central Colorado...
Latest guidance indicates that the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough coupled with mid-level moisture and a deep, dry boundary
layer (LCLs as high as 3-4 km AGL) may support the development of
isolated, dry showers and thunderstorms amid meager instability
(50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across portions of northeastern and
east-central Colorado this afternoon. Minimal precipitation and
critical fuels should support elevated ignition efficiency.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the
Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm
potential appears limited.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot across the eastern U.S. on Friday.
Stronger deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will remain focused
across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front extending from the
Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains will develop south/southeast
through the period, moving offshore by early Saturday. Ahead of the
front, modest boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints) will be in place across the VA Piedmont into the
Carolinas. Steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km are expected
across the region, and will aid in weak destabilization near the
front. NAM and RAP forecast soundings maintain capping across VA
before the front moves through around midday. Further south across
portions of NC, stronger heating may allow for sufficient mixing and
erosion of weak midlevel capping. A couple of surface-based
thunderstorms could develop near the front and produce gusty winds.
However, overall severe potential is expected to be limited by weak
instability and mostly anafrontal convective processes. 

Further west, isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning
near/just behind the cold front into the Ohio Valley. This activity
should diminish with time and southward extent through the day.

..Leitman.. 03/26/2026

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.  Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear
likely.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a flattened upper ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. with strong westerly
mid/upper-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes.  A mid-level
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will move quickly
east-southeast into the Upper Midwest and act to suppress mid-level
heights across the Midwest/Great Lakes through tonight.  Surface
analysis this morning showed a weak low over eastern IA with a
west-east oriented frontal zone extending east across the southern
Great Lakes.  If a weak surface reflection is maintained and
develops east across the southern Great Lakes through this evening,
it may notably influence severe potential within a focused corridor
late this afternoon through this evening.  The aforementioned front
will gradually push south and serve as the primary impetus for storm
development.  

Beneath a capping inversion, moistening will continue with surface
dewpoints rising into the 56-62 deg F range from the mid MS Valley
east into western PA.  Upwards of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely by
mid afternoon south of the front.  A belt of strong, westerly 50-65
kt 700-mb flow is forecast to move from IA and expand spatially
across the warm sector through early evening.  This increase in flow
will act to elongate hodographs despite mainly veered southwesterly
surface flow.  Recent convection-allowing model guidance varies
considerably on the depiction of cellular versus mostly linear
clusters evolving in the first few hours of the convective life
cycle.  Time-lagged HRRR would imply a more spatially and
numerically extensive supercell hail and tornado risk than most of
the 12z HREF HRW members showing less risk of these hazards. The
tornado risk could focus with potential supercells near a weak low
and where surface flow would locally back to southerly.  However,
confidence is muted regarding this specific scenario.  
 
Regardless, current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly
develop along the length of the front from central IL eastward into
IN, southern Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating
erodes lingering convective inhibition.  A mix of supercells and
organized linear clusters will evolve with large to very large hail
possible.  A fairly quick transition to more linear structures
appears likely given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat
for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more
clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley
into western/central PA through the late afternoon and evening.
Given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated
gusts of 75+ mph may occur.  There is a threat for a few tornadoes
as well with both supercells and embedded mesocirculations within
the linear clusters.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/26/2026

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