Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over
northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress
eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day
6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will
support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture
northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states
through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is
possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited
by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures. 

By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the
south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from
parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level
flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over
portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will
develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into
Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be
possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model
run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture
return.

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 6 07:54:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 6 07:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...Synopsis...
Predominantly upper ridging will prevail over the central U.S.
tomorrow (Saturday). However, an embedded mid-level impulse will
traverse the ridge over the central Rockies and overspread the
central Plains by afternoon. Surface lee troughing will encourage
dry downslope flow over portions of the Colorado/Wyoming border into
western Nebraska, and northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas
Panhandle by afternoon peak heating. Over both of these areas, 15+
mph sustained westerly surface winds should overlap with 25 percent
RH for at least a few hours. Given the lack of recent precipitation
over these areas, fuels should be dry enough to support some
wildfire-spread potential, warranting the introduction of Elevated
highlights.

..Squitieri.. 02/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a highly
amplified mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface
high pressure and an accompanying cool airmass will overspread much
of the U.S. from the Plains eastward, limiting significant
wildfire-spread concerns, except over the northern Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. The passage of a surface trough will encourage 10-15
mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH dips into the 25-35
percent range. Given the lack of recent rainfall over northern parts
of the Peninsula, Elevated highlights have been introduced.

..Squitieri.. 02/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Arizona/New Mexico...

An upper shortwave trough within southern stream flow will move
across northern Mexico on Sunday. Increasing midlevel moisture
across southern AZ/NM, and cooling in the 500-700 mb layer will
support weak elevated instability from late morning through early
evening. This could result in isolated weak thunderstorms over parts
of southern AZ/NM within the cold core of the upper trough/low. Weak
instability and relatively warm surface to 700 mb temperatures will
preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will envelop much of the western two-thirds of the
CONUS on Saturday, though an embedded southern stream shortwave
trough will develop east across portions of northwest Mexico and the
Southwest. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will move offshore the Atlantic
coast through early Sunday. At the surface, Gulf moisture will
remain cut-off as high pressure persists over the eastern half of
the CONUS. After 00z, weak surface lee troughing across the High
Plains will allow for modest south/southeasterly return flow to
spread across the western Gulf and the southern Plains. Some minor
increase in boundary-layer moisture will occur over south TX,
however this moisture is expected to remain shallow and
thunderstorms are not expected given weak forcing and warm midlevel
temperatures.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities will remain generally near or below 10
percent across the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast
becomes increasingly suppressed, it appears that large-scale ridging
will be maintained across the Pacific coast through the Canadian
Prairies and U.S. Great Plains.  Some expansion east of the Canadian
Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains is possible, but a vigorous
short wave trough of Arctic origins likely will reinforce amplified
larger-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Atlantic
Seaboard, as it digs south-southeast of the Great Lakes through Mid
Atlantic region today through tonight.  Beneath a confluent
mid-level regime in the wake of this feature, cold surface ridging
is forecast to build across the Mississippi Valley through
Appalachians vicinity, with the leading edge of the reinforcing cold
intrusion advancing as far south as the Florida peninsula and
northeastern Gulf Basin through central Texas by 12Z Saturday.

Near and inland of the southern California through Baja coast, broad
weak mid-level troughing is forecast to linger and become reinforced
by a digging short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream
southern mid-latitude Pacific.  Models indicate that this may
include the evolution of a notable mid-level low, which probably
will remain offshore of the southern California and northern Baja
coast through this period.

...Southwest...
Models suggest that modest moisture return off the subtropical
eastern Pacific, coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by
mid-level cooling, will contribute to weak destabilization across
parts of California into the Great Basin today through tonight. 
With the evolving low and associated coldest mid-level temperatures
forecast to remain offshore, forcing to support convective
development inland remains unclear.  Spread among the model output
adds to the uncertainty.  

Orographic forcing might contribute to potential for thunderstorm
development with sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, and
there appears a consensus among the various ensemble calibrated
thunderstorm guidance for minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities across at least western portions of the Transverse
Ranges of southern California.  Eastward into the San Gabriel
Mountains, and northward into portions of the southern Sierra
Nevada, thunderstorm probabilities appear a bit less at this time.

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026