
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal in most areas. On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20 knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits. Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday, with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains. With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes such an expansion at this time. ..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns. ...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona... High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the addition of Elevated highlights at this time. Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48 hours, however. ..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more