
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening. Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week. Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Discussion... Latest model output continues to indicate the evolution of a broad mid-level cyclonic circulation across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early Saturday, with a number of vigorous short wave perturbations pivoting around its center, generally settling near 44N/140W. At least a couple of these may already be providing support for surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone which may occlude while migrating around its northeastern through northern periphery during the day Saturday. It appears that a trailing cyclone may undergo substantive strengthening before occluding, while migrating around the eastern through northeastern periphery of the mid-level low Saturday through Saturday night. Downstream, as amplification of large-scale mid-level ridging proceeds Saturday across the Rockies, digging short wave perturbations to its east are forecast to contribute to the amplification of larger-scale troughing east of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. This may be accompanied by further development of a frontal wave offshore of the Carolina coast by 12Z Sunday, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Pacific coast... The offshore cyclogenesis may be accompanied by intensifying southerly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields near northern Pacific coastal areas by late Saturday night, as a frontal precipitation band approaches or progresses a bit inland of coastal areas. However, with the mid-level cold core supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorm activity likely to remain well offshore through this period, the potential for severe storms appears negligible. ...Southeast... Aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, vigorous organizing convection may be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, mainly near or to the cool side of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone across parts of central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. As this forcing develops eastward, and daytime heating contributes to modest boundary-layer destabilization to the south/southeast of the front, there appears potential for convection to develop and intensify to the warm side of the front, in the presence of strong and sheared westerly mean flow, including 30-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer. This may be accompanied by further organization and increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts while spreading toward the Carolina/Georgia coast and northern Florida through early Saturday evening. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The next in a series of mid-level impulses embedded in broader upper troughing will overspread the southern Plains, resulting in surface low development across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). As the low tracks eastward, dry westerly flow will promote wildfire spread conditions. The latest guidance consensus depicts 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but generally sub-severe wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific through this period. This is likely to include a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley. There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan. It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of Friday into Friday evening. ...Gulf Coast States... While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning. ...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley... Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with 50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs. Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH. Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity, the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms. However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie. ...Central CA Coast... A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such, locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front pushes south. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026Read more