MD 0500 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA


Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...northern Nebraska into much of central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 230006Z - 230300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly producing damaging gusts,
are expected to develop this evening from parts of northern Nebraska
across central South Dakota. It is uncertain whether coverage of
severe tonight will necessitate a watch.

DISCUSSION...High-based storms have recently produced several
measured severe gusts over west-central SD, though this activity is
rather disorganized. These storms are near a impressive dryline
where a warm and very dry boundary layer exists. 

Visible imagery shows substantial CU still developing along the
dryline across west-central NE, with isolated thunderstorms
developing over Cherry County. Meanwhile, surface observations
indicate dewpoints currently rising into the 40s F in that area,
with 50 or above from LBF south.

As the upper trough moves into the northern High Plains through
early tonight, height falls as well as an increasing low-level jet
to over 50 kt will likely support additional thunderstorms, mainly
from northern NE into central SD. There is some uncertainty how
severe this activity may be as the boundary layer cools and
convective inhibition increases. However, the steep lapse rate
environment combined with increasing lift and moisture may yield at
least a marginal severe wind gust threat.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42080010 41970064 41860180 42120220 42740231 43950188
            45010119 45280046 45039913 44149819 42489867 42080010 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
across parts of the central and northern Plains this evening into
tonight.

...Central and Northern Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the northern Rockies,
with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Desert Southwest
into the northern Plains. At the surface, a north-to-south oriented
trough is present across the High Plains. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the trough from northwest
Nebraska into west-central South Dakota. Additional storms are
ongoing in northeastern Montana to the west of a surface low. As the
low-level jet strengthens across the region tonight, continued
thunderstorm development is expected. A hail and wind-damage threat
will be possible along and near an axis of weak instability from
west-central Nebraska into far southern North Dakota. A wind-damage
threat will also be possible with storms currently ongoing in
northeast Montana.

..Broyles.. 04/23/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
Canada border through Day 5/Sunday. Upper ridging across the eastern
U.S. will begin to flatten on Day 3/Friday transitioning to fairly
zonal flow through the weekend. Much of the Piedmont into the
Southeast will remain fairly dry until a low-amplitude trough enters
the southwestern U.S on Day 4/Saturday and traverses the High Plains
early next week. This pattern change could bring some relief to the
central/southern Plains into portions of the Southeast Day
5/Sunday-Day 7/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see
appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger.
Towards the end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude
trough is forecast to move onshore the southwestern CONUS. Given the
overall pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels
remain receptive.

...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal
flow over the Southwest will promote very breezy and continued dry
conditions this weekend. With preceding days of fire weather
conditions, strong westerly downslope flow and critically low RH
atop very dry fuels will further exacerbate the fire environment,
supportive of 40% Critical probabilities across portions of the
southern Plains into the Southwest on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday.

A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over the High
Plains on Day 5/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over portions
of western KS and northwestern OK. Behind an emerging dryline,
westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained over the southern Plains
and parts of West TX to encompass the expansive fire weather threat.


As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
will persist over eastern AZ into NM early next week. While a brief
reprieve in winds is forecast for the Southwest on Day 6/Monday,
breezy conditions may return in advance of an approaching secondary
upper trough. Guidance ambiguity precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time, however, highlights may be introduced in
future outlooks as a result of the overall upper pattern.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...