SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.

...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.

Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.

..Jewell.. 02/16/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the
western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before
a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded
short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee
cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial
fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern
Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer
term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across
the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader
northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of
the Continental Divide early next week.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet
streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a
pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the
northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across
the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities
expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and
subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire
spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH
reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical
moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest.
Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther
east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer
mixing and drier fuels exist.

...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the
central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire
weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH
recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the
fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover
across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing
environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with
breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are
more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday,
where a 70% critical area has been added.

...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains...
An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad
downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains
should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern
into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.

...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern
NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature
remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability
of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat
is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters
into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft.

..Williams.. 02/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...