SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the
eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface
low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues
southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening.
Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may
develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today,
but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust
convection will remain low.

For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm
advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge
in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands
along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone.

Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by
early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some
potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within
this warm-advection regime.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 22 12:41:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 22 12:41:02 UTC 2026.

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the
forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave
will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on
Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio
Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf
moisture northward across much of the Southeast. 

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday
along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of
the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level
wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist
boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong
convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced
ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few
strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent
lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low
to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent
forecasts. 

This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast
by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should
wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes
hold and begins to advect moisture northward.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States.

... Discussion ...

The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a
mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break
down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow
across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest
flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of
the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough
will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains. 

Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and
the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated
with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California,
thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2026