Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid-Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will progress eastward across Virginia and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong westerlies just off the surface could yield gusty winds. The south-southwest extent of front will decelerate today and then generally stall, orienting in a west/southwest-east/northeast fashion across Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the middle part of Georgia by late today. Isolated thunderstorms may become a bit more probable into tonight as weak ascent focuses along/north of the front. That said, relatively warm mid-level thermodynamic profiles may limit the prevalence of lightning, as well as any consideration for meaningful hail magnitudes. This is even while elevated instability will quantitatively increase and hodographs will be rather long, with steadily strengthening southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL and 50+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. While a couple of strong storms could occur tonight, thinking remains that the potential for severe storms should remain low/conditional. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/20/2026Read more