
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Florida Peninsula... Westerly flow south of a cold front over the northern Gulf Coast and northern FL, will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the central FL Peninsula Friday. Sufficient boundary layer mixing despite the presence of a few clouds should support minimum RH of 30-35% (locally 25%) in most inland locations in central/eastern FL, where temperatures reach into the lower 90s. West winds of around 10 mph combined with low RH and dry, receptive fuels (ERCs in the 90-97th percentiles) will generate elevated fire weather conditions, where Elevated Highlights have been slightly expanded based on latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 04/30/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns where drought-stressed fuels exist. ...Central Florida... Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula. In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon. However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the U.S. east of the Continental Divide on Friday. A shortwave trough will dig through the central Plains into the Southeast through the period. Within the subtropical jet, another shortwave trough will begin the day in the Trans-Pecos and move eastward roughly along the Gulf Coast. These two features will eventually phase by late afternoon into the evening. The mid-level jet will increase in intensity in response. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be positioned from South Texas and eastward along the Gulf Coast. As the southern stream trough progresses east, a weak frontal low will develop and perhaps allow some inland advancement of upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints. ...South Texas/Middle Texas Coast... Rich moisture will exist south of the surface boundary. Southward progression of the boundary will determine how much risk of surface-based convection there will be. Given the amount of precipitation north of the front, there may be a tendency for most storms to be undercut except closer to the coast. With 60+ kts of effective shear, supercells will be possible despite modest buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates. Where storms can remain surface based, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Large hail could occur even with storms that become slightly elevated. ...Southeast Louisiana into Florida Panhandle... Severe potential along the central/eastern Gulf coast hinges on the degree of inland moisture advancement. The expectation is for low-level warm advection to increase with time and eastward extent. This would suggest slightly higher confidence of near-surface/surface-based storms in parts of the Florida Panhandle to the Apalachicola vicinity. A mix of linear and supercell structures appears possible. Damaging winds and large hail may occur with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is more conditional, but nonzero. This threat would be maximized with any discrete storms that develop and move inland. ..Wendt.. 04/30/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z No changes to the previous outlook. A weak but consistent westerly wind, south of nearly stationary frontal boundary draped over northern FL, will continue across the FL Peninsula through today. A subtle thermal trough will evolve across the FL Peninsula today, resulting in a relative temperature maximum across east-central FL. High temperatures in the lower 90s under partly cloudy skies should support minimum RH reductions in the 30-35% range today. Coupled with west winds of around 10 mph amid drought affected and receptive fuels, an elevated fire weather threat exists across the central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain across northern FL through today. A few lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds, potentially impacting existing wildfires, will be the primary concern. ..Williams.. 04/30/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain. Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm, dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge amid a very dry fuelscape. ...Central Florida... Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving, quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary, mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall, and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10 mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought stressed fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana. ...Texas... A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD #627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop. Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated. ...Coastal/Southern Louisiana... A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move across the front later today could pose some risk for locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 04/30/2026Read more