SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D2/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. Widespread rain/thunderstorm
activity can be expected across some portions of the central/eastern
Southern Plains into the Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less
precipitation is likely across portions of western Texas, where fire
concerns are possible D3/Friday.

...D3/Friday - Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts across the Southern Plains but has wavered
on overall amounts and exactly where this will be. Confidence is
moderate that portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma will
receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels guidance suggests
grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses present and ERCs
around the 80th percentile within these regions. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low on D3/Friday. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph across portions of north-central and southwestern Texas. A 40
percent area was maintained with this outlook, given some continued
uncertainty in where the gradient of higher precipitation will be.
Another factor would be the duration of any Critical conditions as
relative humidity increases with colder air coming in behind the
departing cold front. Depending on how much precipitation occurs, a
Critical area may be warranted for the upcoming transition from D3
to D2. 

Beyond D3/Friday, the trough will progress eastward, with heights
rising across the Southern Plains. The front will have ushered
moisture largely offshore, with dry conditions remaining across much
of the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry
conditions will be possible D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday before lighter
winds return.

..Thornton/Elizalde-Garcia.. 01/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday
morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.

...Discussion...
Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and
lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the
period. 

A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will
move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday
morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring
60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold
front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about
09Z.

Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front
into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will
depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or
two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive.

..Jewell.. 01/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/

...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime
prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48.  The
aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east
across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX
by early Thursday morning.  

A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface
dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning.  As
the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,
strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward
into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC
period.  Although the primary cyclone will remain near the
CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the
attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of
interest.  Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over
west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK.  Model-based
soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000
J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear.  An isolated risk for large
hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of
localized severe gusts.