SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a deep upper trough moving across the western
Atlantic, one shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
across the northern Great Plains, while another low-amplitude
shortwave trough will move eastward across TX. A weak surface low is
expected to develop across the southern High Plains, resulting in
modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s F) across
central/south TX. However, surface-based buoyancy is expected remain
very weak to negligible. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in
the period across parts of east TX and the ArkLaTex region. The
shortwave trough moving across TX may aid in the development of
convective showers early Tuesday morning, but any such convection is
expected to remain too weak/shallow for thunderstorm development
prior to the end of the period.

..Dean.. 02/01/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

...Florida...
Current surface observations across FL depict a very dry,
post-frontal northwest flow of 10-15 mph over the state this
morning. Single digit dew points and daytime heating should result
in afternoon relative humidity values close to 20 percent across the
east-central FL peninsula. Although abnormally cold temperatures
with highs only in the 40s F are expected, current fire activity
along with dry fuels, lack of significant rainfall attributed to the
frontal passage yesterday and northwest winds of up to 15 mph will
yield an enhanced fire weather concern through the afternoon. Thus,
Elevated highlights were introduced across the east-central FL.

..Williams.. 02/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the
CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of
central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along
the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through
the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler
temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a
greater fire weather risk.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.

..Gleason.. 02/01/2026