Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Florida... Even with nebulous/weak ascent aloft, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along and south of a front. Moderate instability will develop across parts of central FL with diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, and occasional gusty winds and small hail could occur with the stronger cores given the presence of rather cool mid-level temperatures (around -12 to -14C at 500 mb). However, weak low/mid-level flow and modest deep-layer shear should generally limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Low-level moisture will continue to gradually stream northward across parts of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley into the Midwest/OH Valley through tonight. Some strengthening of a west-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast this evening into early Thursday morning across MO into IL/IN. Most guidance, with the exception of the NAM (which is probably overdone with its depiction of low-level moistening and related instability), suggests that MUCAPE will struggle to exceed 500-750 J/kg. Even with strong cloud-layer shear, this limited instability should temper the overall severe hail threat with any elevated convection that may develop this evening/overnight across IL/IN. Small hail appears possible, though. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains... High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent northern/central Plains as an upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and strong mid-level flow/large-scale ascent overspreads these regions. Low-level moisture will be very limited and MUCAPE is expected to remain meager (no more than 100-300 J/kg). Even so, some lightning flashes may occur with this convection as it spreads generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated, low-topped convection appears possible today mainly across parts of WA as a mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with a 100+ kt mid-level jet may support occasional lightning flashes with this activity even though instability will remain quite weak. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/25/2026Read more