
Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...east-central MO into west-central IL vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191644Z - 191815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms may gradually increase in intensity over
the next couple hours. Some small to marginally severe hail could
accompany stronger cells in the short-term.
DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated convection is persisting late this
morning as storms approach the Mississippi River near the St. Louis
Metro vicinity. These storms are occurring within warm advection in
the vicinity of a warm front ahead of a shortwave impulse across
southwest MO. Morning regional RAOBs show steep midlevel lapse
rates, aided by cold temperatures aloft. While the boundary layer
continues to moisten with time and eastward extent, instability will
gradually increase. These storms will move into the improving
thermodynamic environment downstream across IL. Given favorable
vertical shear supporting organized convection, some gradual
increase in intensity/organization is possible as convection spreads
into west-central IL through midday, and isolated small to
marginally severe hail is possible. The overall magnitude of the
risk should remain limited over the MCD area, and a watch is not
anticipated for this initial convection. Subsequent MCDs will
address the expected downstream severe risk across southern/central
IL/IN later this afternoon.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38779124 39189127 39439103 39589055 39529018 39388979
39158946 38828932 38468935 38138946 37968986 38039046
38289102 38489110 38779124
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Morning Update... Critical highlights were shifted farther south into the Red River Valley and North Texas for the Day 1 update. Poor overnight moisture recovery across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma combined with west-northwesterly 20-25 mph winds (30-40 mph gusts) and 10-15 percent RH by peak heating will promote Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. The observed OUN sounding portrayed 50 knot winds just above the surface, so as daytime mixing occurs, the region could see stronger localized wind gusts. A cold front will pass over the Oklahoma Panhandle/NW Oklahoma late this morning and afternoon gradually shifting winds northerly, bringing in cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints leading to a reprieve in fire weather conditions. Elevated highlights have also been extended across Eastern New Mexico to account for observed westerly downslope winds of 20-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH atop receptive fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north. Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon. These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized storm mode and supercells. The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening. ..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/19/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening. A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64, across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late evening. ...Coastal South-Central California... Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026Read more