
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday. Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical conditions remains. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2 period. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns. Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds 20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times. Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours. Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-25%. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday. A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60 F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern Lower MI. As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the heart of the Enhanced Risk area. Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight, and perhaps along parts of the coast. ...Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower MI... While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes. Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early Monday. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move from the Northeast offshore into the western Atlantic today. At mid-levels, westerly flow will prevail over much of the central U.S., as a trough amplifies in the northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough this afternoon. As the trough moves into the Great Plains tonight, thunderstorms will be possible near the edge of a low-level jet in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered storms may also develop across the Florida Peninsula today. No severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the U.S. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/14/2026Read more