MD 2227 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 639...640... FOR NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS


Mesoscale Discussion 2227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 639...640...

Valid 250728Z - 250900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 639, 640 continues.

SUMMARY...Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread
east-northeast with time overnight.

DISCUSSION...A large southwest to northwest oriented storm cluster
is ongoing early this morning from LA into central/northern MS. A
midlevel shortwave trough currently near the ArkLaTex region, and an
associated strong low-level jet, will sustain this convection
overnight as it moves east-northeastward through a moist and
modestly unstable environment. Strong deep-layer shear (generally
50-60 kt) will continue to sustain organized convection with a
threat of wind damage, while enlarged hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 300 m2/s2 per the KDGX VWP) will support some tornado
potential with any persistent supercell structures or line-embedded
circulations. 

A tendency for the composite outflow to sag southeastward may
continue to temper the severe threat to some extent. However, the
strong low-level jet will aid in the northeastward expansion of
richer boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based buoyancy
with time. A potentially severe line segment currently approaching
the LA/MS border will likely persist as it moves near and south of
the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone. Farther north/east, marginal
supercells currently north of Jackson, MS (as of 0725 UTC) could
pose a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, if they remain in
the effective warm sector. Some severe threat will eventually spread
east/northeast of WW 640, which could eventually necessitate local
watch expansion or new watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31689188 32869066 33128953 32958908 32588908 32288919
            31658959 31389031 31259175 31689188 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the
entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the
Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar
airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited. 

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across
Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any
severe storm threat limited. 

Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the
cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great
Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some
graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around
-20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile,
the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a
general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong
cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains
is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday.
This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and
OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire
concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore
pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established
through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see
winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely
mitigated fuel concerns at this time.

..Moore.. 11/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains.
06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the
northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low
will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it
shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly
winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains
through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast.
Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH
reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with
unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather
potential.

..Moore.. 11/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move along the
southern extent of this trough from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast. A surface low will move from Lake Superior to western
Quebec during the forecast period. An occluded front will extend
east from this surface low to a cold front which will start the day
near the Appalachians and move mostly into the western Atlantic by
00Z. 

Some surface heating is forecast ahead of the cold front from
southeast Georgia to the Carolinas Wednesday morning and early
afternoon. While this will lead to some weak destabilization,
relatively warm 850-700mb temperatures should limit the overall
threat despite strong shear and long hodographs across the region.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

WW 639 TORNADO LA TX CW 250035Z - 250700Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and Central Louisiana
  East-central and Southeast Texas
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 635 PM
  until 100 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently extends from northwest
LA through southeast TX to the Middle TX Coastal Plain. Airmass
ahead of these storms remains moist and unstable, with some increase
in southerly low-level winds expected over the next few hours.
Resulting environmental conditions will support a continued risk for
supercells embedded within the line, as well as the potential for a
few discrete cells ahead of the line. There is enough low-level
shear present for a tornado risk to accompany these supercells, with
damaging gusts possible within the line as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Houston TX to 50
miles east northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Mosier

WW 0639 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 639

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS
TO 45 SSE LFK TO 30 NW POE TO 20 ESE IER TO 40 N ESF.

..DEAN..11/25/25

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 639 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC003-009-011-039-059-069-079-115-250740-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                AVOYELLES           BEAUREGARD          
EVANGELINE           LA SALLE            NATCHITOCHES        
RAPIDES              VERNON              


TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-250740-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDIN               JASPER              JEFFERSON           
NEWTON               ORANGE              TYLER               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 640 TORNADO LA MS 250440Z - 251200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far Northeastern Louisiana
  Western/Central Mississippi

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM
  until 600 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across
northern LA towards western/southwestern MS. A strongly sheared and
modestly buoyant environment precedes this line from far
northeastern LA into western and central MS. These environmental
conditions support a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts within
any stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line. A
few thunderstorms could also develop ahead of the line, with the
threat for a brief tornado and/or strong gusts accompanying these
storms as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Natchez MS to
100 miles east northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Mosier

WW 0640 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 640

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DEAN..11/25/25

ATTN...WFO...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC025-029-041-065-083-107-250740-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           FRANKLIN            
MADISON              RICHLAND            TENSAS              


MSC001-021-029-037-049-063-065-077-085-089-121-127-149-250740-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                CLAIBORNE           COPIAH              
FRANKLIN             HINDS               JEFFERSON           
JEFFERSON DAVIS      LAWRENCE            LINCOLN             
MADISON              RANKIN              SIMPSON             
WARREN               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over
east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,
amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.
Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over
the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As
this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as
of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold
front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary
across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern
Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong
wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of
central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection
begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in
inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by
late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating
increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain. 

30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will
continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central
and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate
destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development
as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The
combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by
mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging
wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level
helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will
support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.
Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may
modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and
isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall
ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker
compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be
somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were
maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL
where strong/severe storms appear most likely.

..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025