
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough over the lower Great Lakes is expected to rapidly intensify as several smaller perturbations merge with the main trough and western US ridging develops Sunday. A 100+ kt jet streak will round the base of the trough and move over the Atlantic coast through midday Sunday. Increasing large-scale ascent will aid in rapid cyclogenesis off the NC Coast. The resulting mass response will surge a cold front southward over portions of the FL Peninsula. Ahead of the front, a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg should develop with daytime heating ahead of the southward advancing front. This may support convective showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of central and southern FL. However, warming/drying mid-levels and the departure of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent should tend to limit lightning coverage with southward extent into later Sunday Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night into early Monday. Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection associated with another upper-trough may support shallow convection along and off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. While coverage should remain relatively low, cold mid-level temperatures and the strong ascent could support a few lightning flashes through Sunday evening. ..Lyons.. 02/21/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Surface observations at 16Z indicate pockets of elevated fire weather conditions developing across southwest portions of the Edwards Plateau in Texas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected to expand in coverage through this evening across portions of South-Central Texas southward into the Big Bend region, where sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH values near 15-20% will overlap receptive fuels. While the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southwest portions of the Edwards Plateau and the South Texas Brush Country, these conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a Critical fire weather area. Please see the previous discussion below for more information, including a discussion on the Elevated fire weather area across southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. ..Elliott.. 02/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. ...South-Central Texas/Big Bend... Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of 15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant additional highlights at this time. ...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F. Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH. Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards. ...Southeast States... A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However, occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026Read more