
Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Northern West
Virginia...Northern Virginia...Northern Delaware...New Jersey...Far
Southeast New York
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251101Z - 251700Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates of around 1 inch per hour, is
expected to continue to develop from parts of the upper Ohio Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic this morning.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows widespread
snowfall ongoing from the Ohio Valley eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. This is occurring along a broad zone of strong
isentropic ascent, aided by warm advection associated with a 50 to
60 knot low-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The exit
region of this feature will continue to move northward this morning
into the upper Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, helping to
gradually intensify snowfall rates. This will result in areas of
heavy snow from Pennsylvania and northern Virginia eastward to New
Jersey and far southeastern New York. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per
hour will be possible within the more well-defined bands that setup.
The heavy snowfall potential from Pennsylvania and New Jersey
northward should continue through the mid to late morning. In
northern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware, a changeover to freezing
rain is expected by late morning.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 41127934 41297761 41297613 41247459 40947379 40557364
40037371 39567396 39167436 38997498 38927678 38877868
38967970 39288035 39518054 40008053 40608035 41127934
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Portions of the Southeast States... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf. Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS. Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast. Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026Read more

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the next several days.Read more