SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, resulting in
slight expansion over portions of southeast Colorado and
south-central New Mexico. As previously mentioned, the uncertainty
of cloud cover prevented expansion any farther south. Fuel
conditions across much of the highlighted and surrounding area of
the southern Plains are some of the driest within the CONUS right
now. Possible expansion to include more of southeast New Mexico will
be monitored with future forecast issuances.

..Stearns.. 04/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.

...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 4 17:52:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY


Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...central and northern Ohio toward Lake Erie and
Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 041746Z - 042015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours, with
areas of strong to damaging gusts possible. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out near the warm front.

DISCUSSION...A composite cold front, reinforced by outflow from
ongoing rain, is nearing the IN/OH border, and extending south
across the OH River. Meanwhile, a warm front is moving into extreme
southeast Lower MI, and extending east across Lake Erie and into far
southwestern NY.

Strong heating has already steepened low-level lapse rates across
the warm sector, resulting in strong southerly wind gusts to 30 kt.
As warming persists, the air mass will destabilize further, with
MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg expected.

While deep-layer mean wind fields are substantial with 40-50 kt
speeds common aloft, shear is a bit marginal. Another mitigating
factor is a midlevel subsidence inversion, which is reducing overall
CAPE.

Despite this, the leading north-south outflow boundary will serve as
a focus for renewed development over the next few hours. Additional
storms may form in the warm sector as the air mass becomes uncapped.
The steep low-level lapse rates and 40+ kt mean winds aloft will aid
surface gusts with any of the substantial storms. Low-level shear
near the warm front could favor a brief tornado as the cold front or
individual cells interact, though much of that activity should
quickly cross into cooler air.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   40328193 39728260 39328433 39348470 39848460 40608450
            41258449 41748423 42078378 42178268 42418056 42567944
            42387912 42087922 41657999 41388038 40328193 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SABINE VALLEY INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY


Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041714Z - 041915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Filtered surface heating of a very moist arimass will
support scattered thunderstorms capable of wind damage this
afternoon. Lack of storm organization should preclude watch
issuance, however.

DISCUSSION...Broken cloud cover is promoting modest surface heating
of a very moist (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass early
this afternoon. With time, additional heating should allow for
scattered thunderstorm development along and ahead of the cold
front. This region exists on the southern fringe of the stronger
mid-level winds, but will have 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon.
25-35 kts of effective shear would support marginally, transiently
organized storms capable of wind damage. Poor mid-level lapse rates
and a linear mode will limit hail potential. There is lingering,
modestly strong 850 mb winds that will be diminishing through the
afternoon. The tornado threat should be low and conditional in the
short-term and decreasing with time.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30979636 31989598 33399367 34279100 34728917 34308836
            32229001 30919255 30479412 30549581 30649617 30979636 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will develop
eastward over the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will extend south/southwest across the Mid-Atlantic into 
central AL at midday. Ahead of the front, a plume of low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place across the eastern Carolinas into
southern NJ. Where stronger heating can occur, weak destabilization
is expected. Enhanced low and midlevel flow (30-40 kt just off the
surface) could support isolated strong to severe wind gusts where
stronger heating and modest destabilization occurs. Overall severe
thunderstorm potential should be tempered by poor lapse rates and
MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively
reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud
breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/04/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made to the previous forecast. As was previously
mentioned, rainfall over portions of Texas yesterday and last night
has dampened any fire weather threat there today. Farther west over
portions of southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the
duration, coverage, and magnitude of surface wind is likely to
remain below elevated thresholds according to the latest forecast
guidance. See below for additional details.

..Stearns.. 04/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.

...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time. 

Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...