
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Southern Plains...Mid/Lower MS Valley...Southeast... An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon. By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior. ...Days 7-8/Thu-Fri... The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010600Z - 010830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will
continue overnight.
DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
south-central TX as of 06 UTC, with occasional elevated supercells
noted. This activity continues to develop north of a nearly
stationary surface front, and may persist through much of the
overnight as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the
region from northern Mexico.
While midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z CRP sounding and
analyzed by the RAP) are not particularly steep, rich moisture above
the frontal inversion is supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg where
storms are ongoing. Strong mid/upper-level westerly flow is
resulting in effective shear of 60+ kt, more than sufficient for
organized convection. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will
continue to be possible with the strongest storms overnight. A
recent elevated storm with hail near Houston suggests that some
severe potential may extend farther north than analyzed MUCAPE would
indicate, though storms that track farther south (closer to the
front) will have access to stronger buoyancy, and perhaps a
localized very large hail threat.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29270104 29689823 29629692 29399618 29059603 28609608
28299670 28009753 27769866 27729927 27680001 29270104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT. ...FL... Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible into the evening and overnight. ...Northern Plains... On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL. ...FL... South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts), the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the 90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Mid-MS Valley... Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near -20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/01/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening. ...FL vicinity... An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place. Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop, isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization. ..Leitman.. 05/01/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026Read more