SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday. 

Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains. 

Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.

..Thornton.. 03/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 14 06:34:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 14 06:34:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the
Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to
develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening
rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in
tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern
High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and
locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns.

Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high
terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the
downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity
reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds
20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will
be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the
Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times.
Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather
conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a
broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into
western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and
eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these
regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated
to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours.

Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and
southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to around 15-25%.

..Thornton.. 03/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to
southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to
be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana
during the evening and overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the
Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper
level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into
Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO
into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as
it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from
the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This
front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys
overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday.

A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the
cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer
and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial
low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and
toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60
F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as
the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over
the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the
mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern
Lower MI.

As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability
plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward
toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a
squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the
heart of the Enhanced Risk area.

Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and
the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms
across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight,
and perhaps along parts of the coast.

...Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower
MI...
While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon
and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing
extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging
winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to
develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early
afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes.
Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in
the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and
eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into
western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push
rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and
isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A
conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the
front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early
Monday.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move from the Northeast offshore into the
western Atlantic today. At mid-levels, westerly flow will prevail
over much of the central U.S., as a trough amplifies in the northern
Rockies. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead
of the trough this afternoon. As the trough moves into the Great
Plains tonight, thunderstorms will be possible near the edge of a
low-level jet in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered
storms may also develop across the Florida Peninsula today. No
severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the U.S.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/14/2026