SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping
portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into
southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the
initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of
thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also
indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the
dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection,
precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry
sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not
expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion
peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this
environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development
on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and
within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by
changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff
low's progression.

The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme
southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with
latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of
the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent
HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/

...Synopsis...
The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential.

...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow
aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains.
A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting
dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2
(Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should
support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX,
the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and
receptive.

The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline
remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal
extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the
dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the
potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite
relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to
the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding
dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday.

While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture
profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these
storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep
low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes
are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for
lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry
thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at
this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

MD 0180 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS


Mesoscale Discussion 0180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of LA into southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091812Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms may pose a risk of
damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a localized/brief tornado
risk.

DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broad/weak low-level warm advection in
southern/central LA, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is
aiding in destabilization and removal of inhibition. As a result, a
modest uptick in thunderstorm strength and coverage has occurred
over the last 30 minutes or so. While the lingering inhibition and
generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on
thunderstorm intensification/longevity, around 30-40 kt of effective
shear (stronger with northward extent) and small clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs may support a couple loosely organized storms
through the afternoon. The stronger/longer-lived storms will pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, though
the moist boundary layer and low-level streamwise vorticity may
support a localized/brief tornado risk as well. Current thinking is
that the severe risk will remain too localized for a watch, though
trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30829390 31129382 31549363 32029315 32569198 32579101
            32429025 32158998 31858993 31489003 31009053 30439229
            30389313 30509363 30829390 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 28 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 091345Z - 092000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 28
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and southern Arkansas
  Extreme souheast Oklahoma

* Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until
  300 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will spread eastward from
southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas through the morning, with
additional storm development possible into southern Arkansas.  Large
hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be the main threat through the
morning, though upscale storm growth could support the potential for
some wind damage by late morning into early afternoon.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of De
Queen AR to 45 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Thompson

WW 0028 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 28

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELD
TO 20 S LIT TO 25 NE LIT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179

..CHALMERS..03/09/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC001-011-025-041-043-069-079-085-095-117-091940-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS             BRADLEY             CLEVELAND           
DESHA                DREW                JEFFERSON           
LINCOLN              LONOKE              MONROE              
PRAIRIE              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0029 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0029 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 29 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TN 091755Z - 100000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Extreme southeast Arkansas
  Extreme northeast Louisiana
  Northern Mississippi
  Southern part of western Tennessee

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Arkansas into
Tennessee and northern Mississippi, with an expected increase in the
threat for wind damage and large hail through the afternoon. 
Additional, more isolated storm development is expected across the
Ark-La-Miss, where a couple of supercells will be possible.  Storm
interactions across the watch area could support an isolated tornado
or two.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north of
Greenville MS to 35 miles east southeast of Tupelo MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Thompson

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.

...Synopsis...
A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas.
Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low
migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold
front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds
behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall
later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning
moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as
surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the
Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering
over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave
over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive
warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains
and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal
boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent
along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains
increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.

...Midwest...
The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the
frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance
suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm
front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor
belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact
placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential
influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain
uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance. 

Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled
with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates
will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized
convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the
cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of
200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south
of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including
strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become
established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will
still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells
capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2
inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening
hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains
somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given
along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the
supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly.
However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the
tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front
across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface
pressure falls/ascent will be maximized.

...Southern Plains...
12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level
lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep
moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should
spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning.
Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated
thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the
Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late
afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with
the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete
supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+
inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing
for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one
or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs
associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded
circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind
probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher
hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX.

..Moore.. 03/09/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.

...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening...
A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and
will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. 
Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through
the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading
eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s.  Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the
eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor
with minimal convective inhibition.

Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat
organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms
as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially
reaching northwest GA by late evening.  The initial storms in the
cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some
increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across
northern AL/northwest GA.  More discrete storms will be possible
immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a
maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland.  Wind
profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail
(some could exceed 2 inches in diameter).  A modest increase in
low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level
moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from
the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a
couple of tornadoes. 

Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest
along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a
conditional threat for large hail.

...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening...
High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent
immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. 
Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear
will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail
and gusts approaching 60 mph.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level
clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High
Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to
clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing
increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface
winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today.
Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect
the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the
aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more
marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong
westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon
with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low
moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the
northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will
support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow
over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are probable.

...Central High Plains...
Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should
continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains.
Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface
low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected.
Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after
multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread
elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions
of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions
will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing
surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central
Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25
mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles
this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region
today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A
swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from
northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow
aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued
drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of
western OK.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...