No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 4 13:13:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 4 13:13:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning surface analysis places a cold front pushing southeast
across the northeast Gulf Coast southwestward through the Gulf of
America.  As an upper trough over the lower MO Valley/southern Great
Plains pivots southeast into the central Gulf Coast, it will drive
the front into central portions of the FL Peninsula late tonight. 
Scant buoyancy mainly over the FL Panhandle vicinity this morning
may yield a few weak thunderstorms before this activity diminishes
as it moves east into a more stable airmass.  Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions for thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/04/2026

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough
advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days
4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains
vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall
evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model
differences), current indications are that the
unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and
weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.