MD 2238 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IA


Mesoscale Discussion 2238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...East-central/southeast NE into southwest/central IA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 291049Z - 291615Z

SUMMARY...Snow rates may approach or exceed 1 inch per hour at times
this morning.

DISCUSSION...A long-duration snow event is underway across parts of
NE and IA this morning. A somewhat more organized precipitation band
has recently developed from eastern NE into west-central IA, within
a zone of enhanced frontogenesis within the 900-800 mb layer. This
band may continue to progress eastward in conjunction with a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough (and related surface low) currently
moving eastward across the central Plains. 

Light to moderate snow has been ongoing this morning across much of
IA, while observations and recent dual-pol data from KOAX indicate
that a changeover from freezing rain/drizzle to snow is underway
from Omaha to near Lincoln, NE. Snow rates within the ongoing band
(and any additional organized bands that develop) may approach or
exceed 1 inch per hour at times this morning. Farther south into far
southeast NE and northwest MO, a residual warm layer may result in a
mix of precipitation types, though brief periods of moderate to
heavy snow rates could occur where a full changeover to snow can be
maintained.

..Dean.. 11/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41299700 41769569 42119475 42469373 42529282 41699269
            40769261 40639416 40479570 40539684 41299700

MD 2237 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO...SOUTHEAST IA...WESTERN IL


Mesoscale Discussion 2237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Northeast/east-central MO...southeast IA...western
IL

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 290918Z - 291315Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow rates are possible early
this morning.

DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield is spreading across parts
of MO/IA and western IL early this morning, within the warm conveyor
region of a surface cyclone centered over southwest KS. Strong, deep
ascent being driven by both low-level warm advection and favorable
upper-level difluence will maintain widespread precipitation through
the early-morning hours. 

Observations indicate that the surface freezing line (currently
draped from near/north of St. Louis into north-central/northwest MO)
generally delineates the transition between rain/mixed precipitation
and snow. Heavy snow has recently been observed at Kirksville (KIRK)
and Hannibal (KHAE) in northeast MO, with moderate snow observations
extending into southeast IA and western IL. Snow rates of near to
locally above 1 inch per hour may persist across these areas through
the pre-dawn hours. 

Farther south into east-central MO, surface temperatures remain
near/above freezing with residual low-level dryness, but evaporative
cooling of the column should eventually allow for development of
moderate to locally heavy wet snow for a period of time this
morning. Precipitation intensity may support snow rates of
near/above 1 inch/hour and notable visibility reductions, though the
marginal surface temperatures could limit actual accumulation rates
to some extent. Later this morning (generally after sunrise), parts
of east-central MO may transition to mostly rain or mixed
precipitation, in response to persistent low-level warm advection.

..Dean.. 11/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38398984 38669113 39549204 40209267 41269249 41269153
            40589027 39898960 39108933 38398984

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 29 11:33:02 UTC 2025.

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another
mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming
week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the
southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day
4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast
Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and
associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development
over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this
point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may
foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is
plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may
develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday)
time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support
greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance
agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the
introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S. while rapidly
tracking eastward, encouraging surface high pressure to overspread
most of the CONUS on Day 3/Monday. As such, thunderstorm development
will be limited over most locales given static stability. However,
through the period, the eastward progression of the aforementioned
mid-level trough will encourage surface low development along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Low-level warm air advection ahead of the
developing low will allow low-level moisture to move inland by up to
a couple hundred miles, fostering enough buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may first develop along the TX/LA
coastlines during the day, with thunderstorms then developing over
southern MS to the northern FL Peninsula late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. However, this buoyancy, which may be largely
elevated in nature, appears too scant to support organized severe
potential, with no severe probabilities introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Expansive surface ridging characterized by cool/cold surface
temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on
Sunday.

..Weinman.. 11/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough and related surface cyclone will advance
east-northeastward from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes through
the period. A related cold front will move southward across the
southern Plains, with strong northerly surface winds in its wake.
However, a minimal overlap between the strongest post-frontal
surface winds and low RH will limit fire-weather concerns --
especially given recent and upcoming precipitation. 

Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across parts of
the Southeast in response to the evolving surface low. Around 10-15
mph sustained southeasterly surface winds and 25-35 percent RH may
yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 11/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...