Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...FAR NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two remain possible this evening from parts of the southern Plains into Arkansas. ...Southern Plains into Arkansas... Multiple areas of convection are ongoing across parts of the southern Plains this evening, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough that will continue to eject northeastward tonight. The greatest remaining severe threat appears to reside from parts of south-central into northeast TX, where MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear remain in place immediately downstream of ongoing storms. At least transient supercell structures will be possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly marginal hail. Modest enhancement of low-level hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2) could support a brief tornado threat. Some uptick in the damaging-wind threat could occur with any upscale growth, before convection weakens as it encounters diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent. See MCD 2216 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some storm redevelopment will be possible late tonight across central TX, as an initially quasi-stationary boundary begins to move eastward as a cold front. Buoyancy and deep-layer will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and an isolated severe threat could persist across this region overnight. ..Dean.. 11/21/2025Read more