Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN COLORADO... A Critical area has been introduced over portions of southeast Wyoming, extreme western Nebraska, and extreme northern Colorado. In this area, forecast guidance indicates sustained west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph combined with RHs of 10-18% by mid-afternoon. The strongest winds will be near and east of the leeward slopes of the Laramie Mountains. In this area, the duration of critical wind/RH will likely approach 5 or more hours during peak heating. The Elevated area was expanded to the east and south across the northern and central Colorado plains and farther into the southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. The limiting factors for expansion farther west and north are cloud cover and existing marginal fuel receptiveness. However, given the persistent pattern and resultant anomalous temperatures expected over much of the region, this area will be watched closely for potential expansion as fuels continue to dry. ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours, which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the 20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around 40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless, antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire weather threat Wednesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
