Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE WEST FLORIDA COAST... ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of Northeast and Mid Atlantic in the wake of a departing upper-trough. A dry airmass will remain in place across the eastern U.S., Southeast and Deep South as surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic. Farther west, a negatively-tilted upper trough will surge into the Western U.S., with dry and breezy conditions focused over the Great Basin ahead of an advancing cold front. ...Florida into Southern Georgia... East to northeast winds of 10-15 mph on the southern fringe of the surface high are expected today across portions of southern GA into FL. Stronger sustained east winds of 15 mph (with higher gusts) will be located farther south across the FL Peninsula, while drier conditions including relative humidity as low as 15% amid higher temperatures in the lower 80s will be displaced to the north over the FL Panhandle and southern GA. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of central FL and the West FL Coast where sustained winds are likely to reach 15 mph and RH falls into the 25-35% range. Elevated fire weather concerns were extended into much of the FL Panhandle where offshore trajectories will maintain a dry boundary layer through much of the afternoon. Fuels remain very receptive amid worsening drought conditions with ongoing fire activity. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... A relative minimum in recent rainfall and existing dry fuels coupled with dry return flow on the western periphery of the broad surface high pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic, will bring a fire weather threat to portions of western TN/MS and eastern AR. South to southwest winds of 10-15 mph amid relative humidity of 20-25% supports a continuation of Elevated fire weather highlights across portions of the lower MS River Valley. ...East-Central Wyoming... A limited fire weather threat will emerge across east-central WY with a weak downslope warming and drying regime in place across the central High Plains. A shallow near-surface temperature inversion will quickly mix out under mostly sunny skies through the late morning hours, following possible poor RH recoveries overnight in eastern WY/CO. RH of 10% or below is likely by the afternoon across the central High Plains. However, weak boundary layer flow and lack of substantial surface lee troughing across the region should limit spatial extent and duration of sustained west winds of up to 15 mph across east-central WY, precluding introduction of Elevated Highlights. ..Williams.. 04/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
