Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from
the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface
high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge
of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is
forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of
the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening.
Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe
threat.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the
southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into
the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the
central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development.
Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and
to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated
severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently
destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into
Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an
upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model
spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial
distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the
timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons,
will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show
better agreement.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm
development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday
as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest
and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to
advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front
will also progress southward across the central Great
Plains/Midwest.

...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will
result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions
of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH
values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry,
receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote
elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New
Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance
suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph
may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO.
Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger
sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies
of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends
will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly
southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late
Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how
far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of
the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at
least some increase in relative humidity.

..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with
longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently,
surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great
Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East
Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move
southward across the northern Great Plains.

...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned
surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across
the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel
conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the
driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is
expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a
few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern
New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover
should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally
elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area,
the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater
uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a
southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time.

..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...