SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as minimal fire weather
concerns exist across the contiguous U.S. An offshore pressure
gradient across southern CA amplified by a surface high moving into
the Interior West should increase Wednesday night into Day
3/Thursday morning as a cold front presses through the Desert
Southwest. This will result in east-northeast winds of 15-25 mph in
wind-prone areas and terrain gaps coupled with relative humidity
falling to 15-20% in some areas. However, fuels conducive to
significant wildfire spread remain subdued, mitigating impact from
the expected heightened fire weather conditions.

..Williams.. 12/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. This
will yield an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern
CA. While locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially
over the wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels and
limited RH reductions should keep any fire-weather risk localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 2 19:38:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2248 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND


Mesoscale Discussion 2248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Areas affected...Southern New York into New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 021834Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour remain
likely across southern New York into portions of New England this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaics show the development of a snow
band across portions of south/southeastern New York in response to
strengthening frontogenesis between the 925-850 mb levels across the
Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Surface observations and web cams
under this band are reporting visibility reductions between 1/4 to
1/2 mile, which given weak winds across the region, are likely being
driven primarily by moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Broad-scale
ascent ahead of an approaching upper wave and more focused mesoscale
ascent within the warm advection branch of an intensifying low-level
cyclone (augmented by frontogenetical responses) will remain
favorably phased through the remainder of the afternoon over the
greater New England region. This will continue to favor widespread
light/moderate precipitation and the maintenance and/or development
of heavier precipitation bands. Consequently, snowfall rates between
1-2 inches/hour will remain likely for areas north of the surface
freezing line. Nearly isothermal temperature profiles from the
surface to around 850 mb suggests that areas near the surface
freezing line may continue to see rapid fluctuations in
precipitation type between snow, sleet, and potentially freezing
rain.

..Moore.. 12/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42227105 41537270 41247350 41107407 41167459 41297490
            41587521 41947516 42257497 42457469 43647197 43657149
            43567127 43127069 42887051 42647051 42457066 42227105

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity.
Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Western and Center Gulf Coast vicinity...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Thursday.
Strong surface high pressure will be in place over the Rockies/Great
Basin, as well as across the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will
be draped along/just offshore the TX coast, while a warm front
extends eastward near the LA coast, then southeast across the
eastern Gulf. 

As an upper shortwave trough moves across the Plains, a weak coastal
low will develop along the Upper TX Coast/LA coast late in the
period. This may allow richer Gulf moisture to move into far
southeast LA and coastal MS/AL in the 09-12z time period. Midlevel
warm advection and increasing ascent atop a cool boundary layer will
support elevated thunderstorm activity along portions of the
western/central Gulf coast through the period. While some
surface-based instability could move inland very late in the period,
this is uncertain and may remain over immediate coastal areas of
southeast LA. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain
limited given Gulf moisture will mostly remain offshore through the
period, though trends will be monitored for some increasing
potential late in the Day 3 (early Friday morning) time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/02/2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Increasing westerly
flow aloft south of an advancing mid-level trough along with a
deepening lee surface trough along the central/southern High Plains
will support a favorable environment for dry, downslope flow across
east-central NM and the TX Panhandle through the afternoon.
West-southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity as
low as 15% are expected. However, the overall fuelscape remains
unreceptive to significant wildfire spread although pockets of drier
fuels/cured grasses could align with the dry and breezy conditions
to support locally elevated fire weather concerns.

..Williams.. 12/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
Within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough over
the West, a belt of moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today. In response, a
lee cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of northeastern NM. These
factors will contribute to dry/breezy downslope flow from eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle and South Plains during the afternoon. While a
corridor of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds are
expected amid 15-20 percent RH, unreceptive fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns. East of the lee cyclone, dry/breezy return
flow will develop across northwest TX into western OK. Similarly,
marginal fuels should limit the wildfire risk.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No organized severe storms are anticipated today.

...Northeast FL...
A large upper trough is spreading across the eastern states today,
with a strong cold front extending across southeast GA and northern
FL.  Scattered showers and a occasional thunderstorms have been
occurring along the front, in a moist and marginally unstable air
mass.  While a strong storms cannot be completely ruled out late
this morning across northeast FL, the area of concern is small
enough and convective trends are weak enough to suggest the risk is
less than 5%.

...Outer Banks NC...
A surface low has formed along the cold front sweeping eastward
across eastern NC.  This is aiding the creation of favorable
low-level shear profiles from the Outer Banks eastward/offshore. 
Radar imagery suggests several rotating storms offshore, and this
trend will continue.  Present indications are that the risk of
severe weather will also remain just east of the coast, so no
probabilities have been added.

..Hart/Moore.. 12/02/2025