
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday. ...Synopsis... The weather pattern will not change much from Wednesday into Thursday, with prominent upper high over the Southwest, northwest flow across the central states, and large-scale troughing just off the East Coast. High pressure from the East into the Gulf of America will preclude any moisture return, with a decided lack of instability over land. ..Jewell.. 03/17/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will exist over the eastern states, with an upper high prominently situated over the Southwest. High pressure will cover most of the CONUS, with dry offshore flow from the East Coast into the Gulf of America. As such, the pattern will offer little potential for destabilization or thunderstorms. However, relative moisture from the Bahamas into the FL Straits may support a few weak oceanic thunderstorms, most likely just off the FL Peninsula. ..Jewell.. 03/17/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that blocking within the large-scale pattern will remain prominent through this period. This includes one notable mid-level high, which may build further while slowly beginning to shift inland of the southern California coast, into the Southwest. As this occurs, large-scale ridging likely will be maintained across the offshore mid-latitude Pacific through the Rockies, with at least some expansion eastward across the Great Plains. It appears that another mid-level high may attempt to form downstream, within initially amplified large-scale ridging across the western mid-latitude Atlantic, as a couple of significant short wave perturbations emerge from lingering larger-scale troughing initially across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard. Both of the waves are forecast to rapidly accelerate within strong southwesterly flow into the northern mid-latitude Atlantic. As this occurs, a broad, deep and occluding surface cyclone is forecast to migrate northeast of the eastern Canadian provinces, with the trailing cold front advancing away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while slowing/stalling across the Bahamas into Caribbean. The center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from near the northwestern Gulf coast into the Mid Atlantic vicinity today through tonight, but models indicate that surface ridging will be maintained to the southwest, across much of the Great Basin. In association with this regime, dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2026Read more

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026 ...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic States this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Virginia Eastern North Carolina Maryland A small part of northeast South Carolina District of Columbia * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes, a couple strong * SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Thompson.. 03/16/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Showers overspreading the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity may continue to be accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps the risk for a tornado or two through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... The sharp surface frontal zone has been steadily progressing east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge Mountains the past few hours, coincident with an area of low pressure within deep surface troughing migrating across northern Virginia into south central Pennsylvania. Along the front near and just south of the wave, a narrow line of convection continues to develop, supported by lift of moist boundary-layer layer air characterized by at least weak CAPE. Due to relatively warm mid/upper levels with weak lapse rates, convection is likely to remain low-topped with little, if any, lightning. However, downdrafts have been sufficient to support the downward transfer of momentum, associated with 50-60 kt southerly mean flow in the lowest 3 km above ground level. Profiles sampled in 17/00Z sounding from Dulles (IAD) appear supportive of at least some risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2026Read more