Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau. ...FL Peninsula... Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will encourage a surface front to settle south across the central Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and the primary concern will be between 18-00z. ...Elsewhere... A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts. Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z. High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent and moistening profiles spread into this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026Read more