SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through nearly all
of the extended forecast period before an upper-level pattern change
early next week. The current pattern will prevail through Day
6/Sunday, aiding in continued Elevated fire weather conditions in
the Central and Southern Plains. Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday, a
transition to southwesterly flow aloft in the Southwest and Southern
Plains will evolve as a closed low develops off the western US
coast. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may
bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region, limiting broader
fire weather concerns in the extended forecast period.

...Day 3/Thursday - South Central Texas...
As the surface low continues to shift south towards the Texas Gulf
Coast, a weak dry cold front will push into South Central Texas
through the afternoon bringing dry and breezy northerly surface
winds of 15-20 mph. With daytime RH values of 15-20%, and above
normal surface temperatures across the area on Day 2/Wednesday,
finer fuels will likely have dried out leading to potential
receptiveness to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been
maintained. 

Beneath strong mid-level flow, tight surface pressure gradients
across central Wyoming may support strong downslope winds and low RH
in the lee of the Laramie Range into far western Nebraska on Day
3/Thursday and Day 4/Friday. However, with the potential for light
precipitation across the area on Day 2/Wednesday, and model
uncertainties in overlap of stronger winds and low RH, fire weather
highlights have been withheld for now. 

On Day 5/Saturday, mid-level flow slowly shifts zonal as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US while southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast advects moisture northward into the Southern
Plains. Some model spread exists past Day 6/Sunday in the extent of
surface moisture return, though given the agreement in the overall
resulting pattern, fire weather concerns appear fairly minimal and
localized through the extended forecast period.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Barnes.. 02/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 24 21:50:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 24 21:50:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across the TN Valley
into the Southeast on Thursday as a low-amplitude, positively tilted
mid-level trough overspreads the MS Valley. Cooler temperatures
aloft will gradually overspread the warm sector through the day over
the Southeast, characterized by modest low-level moisture. Tall,
thin buoyancy profiles in forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE
should remain at or below 500 J/kg in most places. Low-level WAA
atop the southward sagging surface frontal boundary should serve as
the impetus for isolated instances of convective initiation by
Thursday evening. Strong westerly flow aloft will yield straight,
elongated hodographs, so a couple of strong wind gusts cannot be
ruled out with the more organized storms. However, modest buoyancy
and forcing for ascent suggest that any severe threat that
materializes, while technically non-zero, will be too sparse for the
introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 02/24/2026

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.

..Thornton.. 02/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge over the southwest US today will yield
relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the CONUS.  No
organized thunderstorm activity is anticipated.  Nevertheless, an
isolated lightning flash or two will be possible from central CA
into the Great Basin region.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...20z Update...
Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained
from the previous forecast. A tight pressure gradient in the lee of
the Rockies beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will promote strong
downslope winds atop a dry fuelscape. High-level cloud cover is
likely throughout the day, and surface dewpoints may rise some owing
to mid-level moisture infiltrating the area. However, given a narrow
corridor of 20-30 mph westerly surface winds (gusts up to 45 mph),
RH values hovering around 15%, and a prolonged period of hot, dry,
windy conditions, localized Critical fire weather remains likely for
southeastern NM. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Barnes.. 02/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level winds will be maintained
across the central and southern Rockies on Wednesday. Lee troughing
will extend across much of the central/southern High Plains. Dry
downslope winds of 20-30 mph appear possible in portions of
east-central and southeast New Mexico as stronger upper-level winds
nudge farther south and align with the peak of the cross-terrain
surface gradient. With at least some connection to the mid-level
moisture plume on the West Coast, high-level cloud cover and a
modest increase in surface dewpoints are possible. Guidance is not
overly confident in RH lower than 15% for more than a short period.
However, the enhanced winds at the surface will still drive a period
of Critical fire weather during the afternoon.

Elsewhere within the High Plains, RH of around 20% should be more
common. While 15-20 mph will occur in most locations,
terrain-favored areas could see speeds of 20-25 mph.

...Edwards Plateau into parts of central Texas...
As a modest surface low evolves south and east during the day, winds
of 15-20 mph will be possible. During the afternoon RH of around
15-20% can be expected. Lack of stronger winds will preclude a
greater fire weather risk, but Elevated fire weather is probable.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...