SPC Forecast Products
SPC Feb 10, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 at 03:04:52 AM CST
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun -- TX into the Southeast...

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest
into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday,
southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the
trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western
TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central
to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model
spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression
of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some
guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further
north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at
least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer
moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer
southwesterly flow. 

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening
through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS
Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall
severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a
somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this
early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 10 09:05:02 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 at 03:04:05 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 10 09:05:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Feb 10 09:05:02 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 at 03:04:04 AM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 10 09:05:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 at 01:47:11 AM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough
amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges
on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will
remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface
troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The
overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather
conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no
fire weather highlights needed.

..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 at 01:46:25 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the Rockies as a broad mid-level
trough traverses the Northeast, and a second upper trough
overspreads the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and an
associated cooler airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of
the Rockies, and is expected to limit wildfire-spread potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Feb 10, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Tue, 10 Feb 2026 at 01:36:56 AM CST
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

Upper level ridging will persist across central portions of the
CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the eastern states and an upper trough will move across
CA toward northwest Mexico. Lee low development is forecast across
the central/southern High Plains, supporting southerly low-level
flow across the western Gulf. Modest moisture will spread across
parts of the south-central U.S. in response, mainly after 00z.
However, upper ridging and surface high pressure across most of the
rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity as stable
conditions prevail.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

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SPC Feb 10, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 11:52:37 PM CST
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging will build across much of the central CONUS on
Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper
trough/low will develop east/southeast across CA into the Great
Basin vicinity. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible beneath upper low, particularly across
portions of central CA. Thunderstorm potential should decrease
during the nighttime hours with eastward extent as thermodynamic
profiles become less favorable.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

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SPC Feb 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 11:37:54 PM CST
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced
short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half
of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern
CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates
and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective
updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak
destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short
wave/cold front.

Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject
northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by
late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of
this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove
favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning
is expected with some of this activity.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026

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