Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period
D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a
few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the
front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry
air and high pressure will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm
activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday. 

By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains
and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large
trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into
early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this
trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely
return at some point given the approaching trough and inland
moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Southeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday
with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the
Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the
period. 

...Southeast...
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate
destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer
shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm
development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL
during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the
Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be
that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe
weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late
evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front. 

...South Texas...
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across
South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this
front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may
be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will
likely be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern
states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the
Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across
the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast
Monday morning will lift north through the day. 

...East Texas to southern Arkansas...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of
a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but
a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The
warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to
moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode
is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some
marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should
begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector
and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.
This should result in scattered supercell development within the
open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet
(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this
same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late
afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)
could occur. 

A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late
evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to
maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where
cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
No fire-weather concerns are anticipated on Monday due to an overall
lack of overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels. Cooler
temperatures, weaker surface winds, and recent wetting rainfall will
all serve to reduce the threat for wildfire ignition and spread.

..Halbert.. 11/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
There are no fire-weather concerns forecast for Sunday. A lack of
dry and windy conditions coupled with cooler temperatures and recent
wetting rainfall will mitigate any threat for wildfire ignition and
spread.

..Halbert.. 11/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of
west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed
max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist
across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse
rates aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface
temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints
will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into
central TX by 12Z Monday.

As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will
move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air
mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be
substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e
advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will
be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As
such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into
western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where
instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely
after about 18Z.

Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,
surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort
Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to
stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form
along the weak boundary.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025