SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cool, dry, and stable conditions are noted across the country this
evening per 00z RAOBs. With a synoptic regime in place that is
unfavorable for destabilization, thunderstorm potential appears
minimal. One exception to this is along/west of the Cascades in the
Pacific Northwest where occasional lightning flashes have been
observed in recent hours. Regional 00z soundings did sample weak
buoyancy, but this will quickly diminish in the coming hours with
the onset of nocturnal cooling. As such, any additional lightning
potential is expected to be short-lived and should wane rapidly
through the late evening.

..Moore.. 02/02/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. and
ridging across the West is likely to persist through much of this
week. Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a slow deamplification
and shift eastward of the ridge into the Great Plains early next
week which could allow more favorable Pacific moisture trajectories
into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies by Day 8/Sunday. At
the surface, another southward advancing cold front and related
mid-level trough encountering increasing lower-level Gulf moisture
will support widespread precipitation from eastern TX on Day
3/Tuesday into much of the Southeast by Day 4 Wednesday, mitigating
fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures
are expected under the ridge for the West and into the High Plains.

...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern
California...
A developing mid-level low near Baja California, along with an
emerging sustained east-to-west surface pressure gradient should
augment stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and
southern CA by midweek. Persistently low relative humidity
(including poor overnight recoveries) are likely to persist through
midweek. Although alignment of dry and breezy conditions are
probable, a marginally dry fuelscape should allay a more significant
fire weather concern Wednesday and Thursday.

..Williams.. 02/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...