MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN WV...WESTERN VA...FAR EASTERN TN...WESTERN NC AND SC


Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Far southern WV...western VA...far eastern
TN...western NC and SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 160821Z - 161015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds will continue with an
eastward-advancing squall line. A downstream watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented QLCS is tracking eastward across
eastern KY, TN, and northern GA at around 40 kt. While
boundary-layer moisture and surface-based buoyancy is limited ahead
of the line (especially with northward extent), very strong
deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the leading gust front
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Given the linear mode, damaging wind gusts will continue to
be the primary concern, though an embedded mesovortex tornado cannot
be entirely ruled out -- given strong low-level shear. A downstream
watch will likely be issued soon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

LAT...LON   37368226 37658211 37808159 37818110 37658062 37348038
            36868049 36188085 35288138 34708199 34478252 34608331
            34768396 34988411 35378396 35878329 36568263 37368226 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR WESTERN NC/SC...NORTHERN/WESTERN GA...SOUTHEAST AL...AND WESTERN FL PANHANDLE


Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Far western NC/SC...northern/western GA...southeast
AL...and western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160737Z - 160930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring environmental and convective trends for a
possible downstream watch. The primary concern would be damaging
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data depicts a
northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS advancing eastward across eastern
TN, far northwest GA, and northern/central AL -- with additional
isolated thunderstorms attempting to intensify ahead of the line in
AL. This activity continues to pose a risk of damaging gusts and a
couple tornadoes. Downstream, the pre-convective environment is
characterized by weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy (higher
with southward extent) and around 50 kt of line-parallel 0-6 km
shear (per regional VWP). This, along with a 40-50 kt low-level jet,
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Despite some uncertainty in the severe risk with eastward
and northward extent, the potential for damaging gusts and perhaps
an embedded tornado or two may continue, and a new downstream watch
may be needed.

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30678713 32798629 34798451 35138393 35098325 34828279
            34448267 33918281 33018340 31068497 30458564 30258644
            30328696 30678713 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

WW 0064 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 12

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ADM TO
15 NNW GYI TO 20 NNE DUA TO 15 SSW MLC TO 10 E MLC TO 30 S MKO TO
15 S MKO.

..CHALMERS..03/05/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 12 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-015-033-047-061-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-149-050340-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CARROLL             CRAWFORD            
FRANKLIN             HOWARD              LOGAN               
MADISON              POLK                SCOTT               
SEBASTIAN            SEVIER              WASHINGTON          
YELL                 


OKC001-005-013-023-061-077-079-089-127-135-050340-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ATOKA               BRYAN               
CHOCTAW              HASKELL             LATIMER             
LE FLORE             MCCURTAIN           PUSHMATAHA          
SEQUOYAH             


TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-159-181-221-223-231-251-257-277-

WW 64 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA WV 160840Z - 161500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Georgia
  Western North Carolina
  Upstate South Carolina
  Western Virginia
  Southern West Virginia

* Effective this Monday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms will track
eastward across the watch area through the early morning.  Locally
damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest
of Anderson SC to 30 miles northeast of Bluefield WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 62...WW 63...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Hart

WW 0062 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 62

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW TYS TO
55 SE LOZ TO 25 ESE JKL TO 30 WNW HTS.

..WEINMAN..03/16/26

ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC071-095-115-119-127-133-153-159-193-195-160940-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FLOYD                HARLAN              JOHNSON             
KNOTT                LAWRENCE            LETCHER             
MAGOFFIN             MARTIN              PERRY               
PIKE                 


TNC009-019-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-155-163-171-179-
160940-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT               CARTER              COCKE               
GRAINGER             GREENE              HAMBLEN             
HANCOCK              HAWKINS             JEFFERSON           
JOHNSON              SEVIER              SULLIVAN            
UNICOI               WASHINGTON          


VAC051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-160940-

WW 62 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA WV 160440Z - 161100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Kentucky
  Eastern Tennessee
  Southwestern Virginia
  Southwestern West Virginia

* Effective this Monday morning from 1240 AM until 700 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A squall line will move from west to east across the Watch
area overnight.  Scattered damaging gusts associated with the more
intense portions of bowing segments and inflections within the
squall line will be the primary hazard.  A brief tornado is
possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Jackson
KY to 15 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...WW 58...WW
59...WW 60...WW 61...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
24045.

...Smith

WW 0063 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 11

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134

..CHALMERS..03/04/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC005-009-049-065-071-075-089-101-115-121-129-135-137-141-
050040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAXTER               BOONE               FULTON              
IZARD                JOHNSON             LAWRENCE            
MARION               NEWTON              POPE                
RANDOLPH             SEARCY              SHARP               
STONE                VAN BUREN           


ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-050040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER            EDWARDS             FRANKLIN            
GALLATIN             HAMILTON            HARDIN              
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JOHNSON             
MASSAC               PERRY               POPE                
PULASKI              SALINE              UNION

WW 63 TORNADO AL FL GA 160810Z - 161400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 63
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Alabama
  Florida Panhandle
  Northern and Western Georgia

* Effective this Monday morning from 310 AM until 900 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will overspread the region through the
morning hours, with the strongest cells posing a risk of locally
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles southeast of Pensacola FL to
50 miles north northwest of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 62...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

WW 0061 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 61

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW JKL
TO 30 W CMH TO 30 NW MFD.

..WEINMAN..03/16/26

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...RLX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC019-043-081-089-135-160740-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOYD                 CARTER              GRANT               
GREENUP              LEWIS               


OHC001-041-045-047-049-073-079-087-089-097-129-131-141-145-163-
160740-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                DELAWARE            FAIRFIELD           
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            HOCKING             
JACKSON              LAWRENCE            LICKING             
MADISON              PICKAWAY            PIKE                
ROSS                 SCIOTO              VINTON              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES

WW 0060 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 60

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LFT
TO 30 SW MEI TO 30 NW GAD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261

..WEINMAN..03/16/26

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC007-009-015-019-021-023-025-047-055-063-065-073-091-105-115-
117-119-121-125-129-131-160740-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BLOUNT              CALHOUN             
CHEROKEE             CHILTON             CHOCTAW             
CLARKE               DALLAS              ETOWAH              
GREENE               HALE                JEFFERSON           
MARENGO              PERRY               ST. CLAIR           
SHELBY               SUMTER              TALLADEGA           
TUSCALOOSA           WASHINGTON          WILCOX              


LAC005-063-103-105-117-160740-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION            LIVINGSTON          ST. TAMMANY         
TANGIPAHOA           WASHINGTON

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday
across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across
the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will
extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will
promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west
TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%
will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A
corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible
within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of
critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low
combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.

..Thornton.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0059 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 59

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BHM TO
20 NE CSV TO 15 WSW LOZ.

..WEINMAN..03/16/26

ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...OHX...MRX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 59 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC049-071-095-160740-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEKALB               JACKSON             MARSHALL            


GAC015-047-055-083-111-115-123-129-213-227-295-313-160740-

GA 
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARTOW               CATOOSA             CHATTOOGA           
DADE                 FANNIN              FLOYD               
GILMER               GORDON              MURRAY              
PICKENS              WALKER              WHITFIELD           


TNC007-011-035-065-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-153-160740-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLEDSOE              BRADLEY             CUMBERLAND

WW 59 TORNADO AL GA TN 160120Z - 160800Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 59
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Alabama
  Far Northwest Georgia
  Middle into Eastern Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Broken bands of severe thunderstorms will move across the
Watch area this evening into the overnight.  A few stronger cells
embedded within the bands will potentially pose the greatest severe
risk.  A few tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of
strong tornadoes, and severe gusts 60-80 mph are the main threats
with the stronger thunderstorms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Nashville TN to
35 miles south southwest of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55...WW
56...WW 57...WW 58...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.

...Smith

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through
Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The
ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the
period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great
Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will
maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with
high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of
America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is
likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states
into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this
cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be
minimal.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...

...Synopsis...
Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains
this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from
central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast.

...New Mexico and far west Texas...
Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New
Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this
region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry
conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area.

...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast...
As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will
overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the
middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across
the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this
outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to
northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to
dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence
has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle
Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added
with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on
Sunday.

..Thornton.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0058 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 58

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CSV TO
35 SSW LUK.

..WEINMAN..03/16/26

ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC017-049-181-160740-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOURBON              CLARK               NICHOLAS            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a
large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the
Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore
winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the
Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective
showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will
preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the
northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and
trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z
Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture
off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability
may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential
will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers
and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will
prevail, with high pressure at the surface.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
Atlantic today.  There is potential that a couple of storms could
become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain
amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and
U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond.  At the same time, it
appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification
just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward
progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the
Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard.

It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will
gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the
Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating
northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this
evening through the overnight hours.  Models suggest that this will
eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface
cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening
cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity.

Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast
to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and
Blue Ridge  today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface
pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern
Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage
of the trough and trailing cold front.  The cold front may clear all
the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and
the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday.

...Atlantic Seaboard...
Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into
middle Atlantic Seaboard.  By early this afternoon, it appears that
60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher
terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew
points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North
Carolina and Virginia.  In advance of a pre-frontal squall line,
which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the
southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the
outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and
large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm
development fairly early in the day.  The extent to which this may
impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains
unclear.

Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak
lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air
aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front.  Even
so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at
least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is
possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic.  

In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on
the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear,
including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment
appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving
supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes.  Barring much
interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this
time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the
storm motions.

Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front
might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of
promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to
produce widespread damaging wind gusts.

Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be
maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to
severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the
southern Atlantic coast.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026