Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale
troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset
of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of
the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. 
It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a
series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations.  However,
given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to
the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface
cyclogenesis, possible strong.  

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability
with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater
certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by
Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes
region.  Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf
boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support
limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the
middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday.  By
Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture
surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing
convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains
unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may
commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great
Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to
emerge from the West.  However, current model output suggests that
renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that
convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side
of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather
potential.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night.  However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially
offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating
inland Tuesday.  However, an associated intense offshore northerly
mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward
toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the
southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing
across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.  

The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at
least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast
to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the
middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad
belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues
developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid
Atlantic Seaboard.  

In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially
deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into
the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle
and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.  However, it
appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger
southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains
into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component.
 Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf
Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a
warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the
central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas.  However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.  This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet.  Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small
hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic
profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe
limits.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that
the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential
lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak
elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor
spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026