
Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...Southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147...
Valid 260631Z - 260800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147
continues.
SUMMARY...Earlier supercells have grown upscale into a linear/bowing
cluster with continued wind damage and isolated large hail
potential.
DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells in southwest AR, with a history of
very large hail, have now merged and transitioned to more of a
linear/cold pool-driven structure, with the lead supercell evolving
into a comma head. This suggests the severe threat is also
transitioning more to wind damage and embedded mesovortex
circulations, though strong updrafts in the cluster could still
produce large hail. This storm cluster will likely persist for the
next couple of hours while moving southeastward along the buoyancy
gradient from southern AR into northern LA. The severe-threat will
potentially reach a tier or two of counties/parishes east of the
watch, but most of the threat should remain within the watch area.
..Thompson.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33289265 33469223 33339202 32989181 32599195 32439221
32359265 32429313 32629350 32819375 33069380 33289360
33289265
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CRS TO 10 WNW DAL TO 35 SW ADM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543 ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-349-379- 397-467-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR NAVARRO RAINS ROCKWALL VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1040 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells will continue
east/southeast across North Texas the next several hours. The
environment across North Texas remains favorable for strong
tornadoes. Additionally, very large hail has occurred with these
storms and potential for 2+ inch hail with continue into the
overnight period.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles east of Sherman TX to 50 miles
south southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 147...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.
...Leitman
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1010 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to track
southeast into the overnight hours. Nocturnal cooling and increasing
boundary-layer inhibition will limit surface-based storms and large
hail up to 2 inch diameter will be the main hazard. Isolated severe
gusts also are possible. If a storm can become surface-based, a
tornado is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of
De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 146...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Leitman
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW DEQ TO 15 ENE TXK TO 15 S PBF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544 ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-027-073-091-103-139-260840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC089-260840- OKRead more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions. A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon. Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range again today. Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the 85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO 35 NNW RUE. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC047-131-260540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC079-135-260540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133- 149-260440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more