MD 0054 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK


Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Northern West
Virginia...Northern Virginia...Northern Delaware...New Jersey...Far
Southeast New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 251101Z - 251700Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates of around 1 inch per hour, is
expected to continue to develop from parts of the upper Ohio Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows widespread
snowfall ongoing from the Ohio Valley eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. This is occurring along a broad zone of strong
isentropic ascent, aided by warm advection associated with a 50 to
60 knot low-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The exit
region of this feature will continue to move northward this morning
into the upper Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, helping to
gradually intensify snowfall rates. This will result in areas of
heavy snow from Pennsylvania and northern Virginia eastward to New
Jersey and far southeastern New York. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per
hour will be possible within the more well-defined bands that setup.
The heavy snowfall potential from Pennsylvania and New Jersey
northward should continue through the mid to late morning. In
northern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware, a changeover to freezing
rain is expected by late morning.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   41127934 41297761 41297613 41247459 40947379 40557364
            40037371 39567396 39167436 38997498 38927678 38877868
            38967970 39288035 39518054 40008053 40608035 41127934

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Portions of the Southeast States...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more
single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface
analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the
central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low
southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf.
Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system
that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS. 

Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an
extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX
into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as
either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying
this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and
western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends
from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL
Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change
throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further
modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the
advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold
front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the
maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins
to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical
shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts. 

Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk
concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into
southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best
thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast.
Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this
area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring
brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more
discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the
line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time
due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to
limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast
period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly
flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable
air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface
cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic
coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust
moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the
next several days.