SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 22 11:02:02 UTC 2026
Published: Wed, 22 Apr 2026 at 06:01:05 AM CDT
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 22 11:02:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Apr 22 11:02:02 UTC 2026
Published: Wed, 22 Apr 2026 at 06:01:04 AM CDT
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 22 11:02:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Apr 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Published: Wed, 22 Apr 2026 at 04:03:56 AM CDT
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next
week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a
lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of
this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE
values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects
mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear
around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that
should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is
introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for
the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast
overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable
of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and
western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued
risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist
into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection
will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low
70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the
same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern
Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a
mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma
along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile
atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a
strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should
thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could
materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across
central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global
models continue to struggle to develop convection within this
environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical
velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests
the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack
of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with
this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be
refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along
and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg
and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number,
and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the
events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not
occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of
CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may
develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe
potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence
in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale
details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be
added in subsequent forecasts.

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SPC Apr 22, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Wed, 22 Apr 2026 at 02:22:30 AM CDT
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

... Synopsis ...

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the
northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic
midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within
this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely
across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust
large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially
acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage. 

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...


At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be
ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow
boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the
morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening
low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag
south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity
of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus
for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source
of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain
in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist
boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability,
with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35
knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support
robust updrafts. 

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm
modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any
persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts

... Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the
afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly
east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although
instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain
sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and
hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

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