SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 28 22:33:02 UTC 2025
Published: Fri, 28 Nov 2025 at 04:32:05 PM CST
No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 28 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Nov 28 22:33:02 UTC 2025
Published: Fri, 28 Nov 2025 at 04:32:04 PM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 28 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 28 Nov 2025 at 03:19:19 PM CST
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

An upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies and strengthen
over the Midwest/Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, while
another upper-level trough will move out of the Intermountain West
and deepen over the central US Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. Yet
another upper-level trough is likely to move southward into the West
Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday. Late in the period, upper-level
ridging is likely over the northeast Pacific onto the West Coast
with upper-level troughing over the eastern US.

Overall, fire weather concerns will be mostly low, but there may be
some locations at times where elevated fire weather conditions are
possible. Multiple days of dry/breezy conditions are likely on
portions of the southern High Plains ahead of expected cold frontal
passages this upcoming week, but there is a fair amount of forecast
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and location of these dry/breezy
conditions. Widespread rainfall is likely across most of the
Southeast, but portions of southern Georgia and Florida could
receive little appreciable rainfall, with dry post-frontal
conditions likely mid to late next week. Given the forecast tracks
of the upper-level troughs over the West, periodic offshore winds in
California, especially southern California, are likely. However,
fuels are unlikely to be receptive given the recent precipitation
across the state, and only potentially elevated winds/RH are
forecast currently.

..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Nov 28, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Fri, 28 Nov 2025 at 01:33:32 PM CST
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 11/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.

Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.

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SPC Nov 28, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Fri, 28 Nov 2025 at 01:12:59 PM CST
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.

Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 28 Nov 2025 at 12:54:27 PM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.

..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/

...Synopsis...
Breezy surface winds are expected across the southern High Plains in
the vicinity of a cold front moving through the area. Over southeast
NM, around 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will
briefly overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of the front during the
afternoon. However, marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather
concerns. 

Farther east, dry return flow is expected across parts of the
Southeast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible (given receptive fuels), generally light surface winds
should limit the overall fire-weather risk compared to previous
days.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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