Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An eastward translating upper-level trough will exit the eastern U.S. by the weekend, with a broad surface high pressure settling into the OH River Valley by Day 5 Sunday. A building ridge across the West will continue to support near record heat across much of the Southwestern U.S. through the end of the week as a trough impinges upon the West Coast by early next week. At the surface, a strong cold front should elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday as dry, post-frontal flow impacts this region. Dry southerly flow returns on Day 4/Saturday across much of the southern and central Plains as surface high pressure pushes into the eastern U.S. and lee troughing evolves in the northern High Plains. Mid and upper-level moisture entering the Southwest ahead of the next trough could bring high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of NM and AZ over the weekend, increasing opportunities for ignitions over unseasonably dry fuels. ...Day 3/Friday - Central and Southern Plains... Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast will encompass portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. The gusty north-northeast winds accompanying a very dry air mass centered across portions of eastern KS, southwestward into OK and the TX Panhandle should support a fire weather threat across this region. A northeastward expansion of the existing 40% probabilities was warranted based on latest model guidance and receptive fuels in place. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern/Central Plains and Southeast... Fire weather impacts from the dry post-frontal environment will extend into portions of the Southeast by Day 4/Saturday. Appreciable northeast winds amid low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels supports continuation of the 40% critical probabilities for portions of the Carolinas, GA, southern TN and northwestern AL. ...Day 5/Sunday - Arizona and New Mexico... Increasing mid and upper-level moisture from the Pacific and emerging daytime instability should support high-based convection across portions of the Southwest. Exceptionally warm and dry conditions preceding and leading up to this event has aided in fuel receptivity to spread. As such, introduced a 10% probability for isolated dry thunderstorms for portions of eastern AZ and western NM, where drier fuels exist. Farther north, warming temperatures and an increasingly dry boundary layer should align with breezy west winds across portions of southeastern WY into western NE and far northeastern CO where minimal precipitation is expected to fall over the next few days. Dry fuels should largely still be in place by Day 5/Sunday across much of the High Plains so introduced 40% critical probabilities where the dry fuels coexist with breezy west winds and dry conditions. The high-based convection and dry thunderstorm threat could linger into early next week as the trough enters the western U.S. but generally cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity could reduce overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 03/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
