Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across
the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it
overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited
moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter,
strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys
will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and
western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry,
offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward
from the central Plains/middle MS Valley into the eastern U.S.
through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will move
eastward across the TN Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold
front overspreads east TX and the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the
front, initially shallow/elevated convection should gradually deepen
as the PBL destabilizes across east TX and LA during the afternoon.
While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weak buoyancy and
only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severe risk --
especially given weak large-scale ascent over the warm sector.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains
through the period -- gradually phasing with a midlevel trough
moving into the MS Valley. In response, positive low-level theta-e
advection will strengthen across east TX into the Arklatex vicinity
ahead of an evolving surface low and attendant cold front. While
weak elevated buoyancy may develop within the warm-advection regime
toward the end of the period, only weakly modified Gulf moisture
(lower/middle 50s dewpoints) and lingering static stability should
preclude thunderstorms.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
After upper-level ridging shifts into parts of the Plains on Sunday,
a shortwave trough will lead to some breakdown of that ridge as it
dives southeastward into the central Plains on Monday. At the
surface, a modest lee trough/cyclone will develop in the central
high Plains and shift southward. Fire weather risk will broadly
remain low across a majority of the CONUS.

...Central/southern High Plains...
With the development of the lee trough/cyclone, at least modest
downslope winds appear possible during the afternoon. Winds will be
more northerly in the central High Plains. Mid/upper clouds make RH
reductions uncertain in this area. Farther south, winds in eastern
New Mexico will more likely be westerly and RH could fall below 20%.
In both areas, winds will be on the light side with around 15 mph
expected (locally up to 20 mph). This overall environment will be
conducive to fuel drying but is not expected to carry more than a
localized fire weather risk.

...Florida...
RH below 25-30% will again be possible during the afternoon. A more
relaxed pressure gradient will mean lighter winds than the previous
two days. Temperatures will be warmer, however. Without stronger
surface winds, fire weather risk appears low. Localized concerns are
possible where recent rainfall was not observed.

..Wendt.. 02/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the
CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of
central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along
the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through
the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler
temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a
greater fire weather risk.

..Wendt.. 02/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...