SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into
the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential on Friday will primarily be focused along and
ahead of a strong synoptic cold front that is forecast to push from
the upper OH Valley early Friday southward into the Southeast
through Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are likely at the
start of the period along the frontal zone, but thunderstorm
potential should wane from west to east through the day as the front
migrates into an environment with poor mid-level lapse rates south
of the OH Valley. Seasonally high dewpoints (mid to upper 50s)
coupled with daytime heating across the Carolinas into southern VA
will likely yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (100-250 J/kg MLCAPE
and lifted indices around -1 C) where thunderstorm re-development is
probable by late afternoon. Despite strong mid-level flow over the
region, paltry buoyancy will likely limit updraft intensities and
the overall severe threat. This idea is supported by recent
extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, which show very limited
convective signals over the Carolinas.

..Moore.. 03/25/2026

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 25 07:17:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 25 07:17:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...Synopsis...
The strongest upper-level winds will persist within the northern
tier states on Thursday. Some amplification of the upper ridge is
expected in the West. Modest amplification of the upper trough over
southeaster Canada is also expected. Cooler air will move into much
of the CONUS by Friday morning.

...Central New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma...
A cutoff low currently off the southern California coast will move
through the Southwest Wednesday and reach the southern Rockies/High
Plains Thursday afternoon. This feature will not be overly strong,
but will provide enhancement to the mid-level winds and help deepen
a surface low in the High Plains. This will promote 20-25 mph
surface winds. With very dry air remaining in the Southwest and
moving eastward, localized single digit RH is possible. More
broadly, 10-15% RH can be expected during the afternoon. Sustained
critical fire weather is most likely in these areas.

...Central Oklahoma into Flint Hills...
The exact degree of RH reductions within these areas remains
uncertain due to some moisture returning northward. However, mostly
clear skies are expected and warming temperatures (likely in the 90s
F given the current frontal progression forecast) will support RH
values of 20-30%. With the low-level jet centered over these
regions, winds of 15-25 mph (and stronger gusts) will promote
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions even with what
could be marginal RH reductions. The cold front will eventually move
southward and strong, gusty north winds will arrive in its wake.
Timing of the front will be mid/late afternoon for Kansas with
overnight into Friday morning for Oklahoma.

...Western Kansas...
Uncertainty in terms of the duration of fire weather concerns is
largest in this area. With the surface trough remaining here the
longest, weaker winds are expected for at least part of the day.
Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph may occur. Stronger northerly winds
are expected behind the front. As the front moves southward through
Wednesday into Thursday, some airmass modification appears probable
and the temperature drop behind the front will be more gradual. This
should allow for a secondary period of elevated to near critical
fire weather during late afternoon/early evening.

...Eastern Great Basin into the Southwest...
Ahead of a cold front, surface winds will increase across the
eastern Great Basin to 15-25 mph (locally higher). Across the
Southwest, weaker winds are expected due to the stronger mid-level
winds displaced farther north. There, only 15 mph is anticipated.
Elevated fire weather is forecast as fuels continue to dry.

..Wendt.. 03/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe winds will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
Latest GOES water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave encroaching
upon the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and southern British
Columbia as it rounds the apex of a stout upper ridge situated over
the West. This feature is expected to migrate eastward over the next
48 hours, reaching the Great Lakes region by late Thursday.
Early-morning surface observations reveal the early stages of lee
cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains with a long fetch of
southerly flow from the TX Gulf Coast into the Plains. While
moisture return is currently fairly weak, a plume of upper 50s to
low 60s dewpoints will spread northeastward into the Midwest/OH
Valley by Thursday afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold
front. Strong forcing along the front within a destabilizing air
mass, combined with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upper
wave, will promote scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across
portions of the Midwest and OH Valley Thursday afternoon and
evening. 

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon across the
southern Lake Michigan region as the cold front begins to impinge on
a plume of returning moisture. Stout capping at the base of an EML
will likely limit initial storm coverage, and elongated hodographs
(featuring 40-50 knot effective bulk shear values) will promote
organization of discrete/semi-discrete supercells for at least an
hour or two. Given the very favorable convective environment
(characterized by SCP values upwards of 8-12), large to very large
(2-3 inches in diameter) hail appears possible. However, it remains
unclear how long storm modes will remain discrete with latest HRRR,
RRFS, and MPAS solutions all suggesting relatively quick upscale
growth along the front by early evening. These solutions appear
reasonable given strong frontal ascent and deep-layer flow
predominantly along the boundary. This may modulate the
duration/coverage of the significant hail threat, and would favor a
scattered severe wind threat downstream into IN and OH. 

Regardless, 200-400 m2/s2 effective SRH immediately ahead of the
front will support some threat for tornadoes, including the
potential for a significant tornado if supercells can be maintained
just ahead of the front. Additionally, the consensus among HREF/REFS
solutions is a northward shift in the primary severe risk corridor
towards northern IL/IN, southern lower MI, and northwest OH. 15%
hail and wind probabilities were adjusted accordingly. More isolated
strong/severe storms appear possible with southwestward extent along
the front into central MO, but confidence in storm coverage west of
the MS River is limited due to displacement from the richer moisture
and stronger upper-level ascent.

..Moore.. 03/25/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level winds will remain across the northern CONUS
today. A surface low/lee trough will develop in the central/northern
Plains, extending southward through the High Plains as well. A
strong cold front will move into the northern Plains into Thursday
morning.

...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
Critical fire weather is expected by the afternoon as strong
mid-level winds and an increasing surface pressure gradient promote
20-25 mph winds (higher speeds within the terrain). RH will fall to
around 15% amid downslope warming/drying.

Adjacent portions of the northern Rockies and the central Plains
will experience elevated fire weather. Winds will still be strong in
the northern Rockies, but RH may not reach much below 20%. In the
central Plains, a strengthening pressure gradient will increase
winds to around 15 mph at least locally. RH will be 15-20% during
the afternoon.

...Texas Panhandle/South Plains...
The lee trough will promote increasing southerly surface winds by
the afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph appear possible. On the western
flank of northward returning moisture, RH will fall to 10-20%.

..Wendt.. 03/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge centered across the Rockies will become less
amplified through the period as a strong mid-level jet moves from
the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. A surface low will
emerge across the northern Plains by this evening. Strengthening
southerly flow ahead of this surface low will moisten regions from
the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough (evident at both 850mb and 500mb)
will move through the Ohio Valley tonight. As isentropic ascent
strengthens ahead of this trough, thunderstorms are expected.
Instability will remain quite weak (
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