MD 2232 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 641... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA


Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeastern Mississippi into central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 641...

Valid 252036Z - 252230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 641 continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two and isolated wind damage remain
possible where surface heating/low-level lapse rates remain
strongest this afternoon. A weakening trend can be expected with
eventual loss of daytime heating.

DISCUSSION...Overall trends for storms within WW 641 this afternoon
have been for relatively brief intensification. A few cells have
continued to show weak low-level rotation, but this has also been
rather transient. Local VAD data suggest low-level shear has
weakened slightly, but is still sufficient for brief tornado
potential. This potential will be maximized where surface heating
has been greatest: southwest of Birmingham and parts of
southern/east-central Alabama. Storms should be able to maintain
some intensity for the next 2-3 hours. Beyond that point,
diminishing surface heating will lead to a weakening trend late this
afternoon.

..Wendt.. 11/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   30918882 31128901 32308825 33068771 33398744 33508704
            33418632 33308567 32798550 32608544 31668621 31188732
            30918882 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MD 2230 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA


Mesoscale Discussion 2230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...southeast North
Dakota...west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 251649Z - 252145Z

SUMMARY...Potential for moderate to heavy (around 1 inch per hour
rates) snowfall is expected to increase through the afternoon as the
upper trough intensifies and the surface low deepens in the Upper
Midwest.

DISCUSSION...An amplifying trough is evident on water vapor imagery
in the northern Plains. As this features continues into the Upper
Midwest, a surface low now analyzed in eastern South Dakota should
deepen and generally shift eastward. Ascent from low to mid levels
will promote a region of heavier precipitation. Recent observations
from northeast South Dakota showed heavy snow occurring.
Temperatures farther east are currently above freezing, but between
low-level cold air advection and diabatic cooling within the heavier
precipitation bands, moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates
(around 1 inch per hour) are probable into the mid/late afternoon.

..Wendt.. 11/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45219667 45239786 45379822 45479836 45579847 46039827
            46349762 46619644 46459568 46279519 45809528 45609558
            45439591 45219667

WW 0641 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 641

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WENDT..11/25/25

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 641 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC001-007-013-021-023-025-027-035-037-041-047-051-063-065-073-
085-091-099-101-105-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-252040-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA              BIBB                BUTLER              
CHILTON              CHOCTAW             CLARKE              
CLAY                 CONECUH             COOSA               
CRENSHAW             DALLAS              ELMORE              
GREENE               HALE                JEFFERSON           
LOWNDES              MARENGO             MONROE              
MONTGOMERY           PERRY               SHELBY              
SUMTER               TALLADEGA           TALLAPOOSA          
TUSCALOOSA           WASHINGTON          WILCOX              


MSC041-111-153-252040-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GREENE               PERRY               WAYNE               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE

WW 641 TORNADO AL MS 251805Z - 260000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and southern Alabama
  Extreme southeast Mississippi

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until
  600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through this
afternoon/evening from extreme southeast Mississippi northeastward
into central Alabama.  A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage
with thunderstorms gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail near 1
inch in diameter are the main threats.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa
AL to 50 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.

...Thompson

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will
further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a
weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic
flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending
northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong
low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves
offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.

With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of
the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be
limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse
rates and  buoyancy should limit the severe threat.

Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern
Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind
the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold
thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase
precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to
deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening.  A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...20z Update..
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further
southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with
recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across
central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime
heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger
cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from
BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of
hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating
cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated
large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 11/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley.  An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL.  Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain.  Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells.  Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening.  A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion.

..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/

...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong
cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains
is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday.
This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and
OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire
concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore
pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established
through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see
winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely
mitigated fuel concerns at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Southeast...
A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward
quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands
from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the
secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow
aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over
the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should
also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern
Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will
sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore
early Thursday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of
the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective
cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm
sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their
wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass
could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms
in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC
into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse
rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should
limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore
Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions.

...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts...
Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped
convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon.
However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite
limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still,
strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray
convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of
lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for
more details.

..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains.
06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the
northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low
will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it
shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly
winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains
through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast.
Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH
reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with
unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather
potential.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening.  A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley.  An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL.  Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain.  Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells.  Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening.  A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025