SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the
central and north Florida.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front, now approaching the Piedmont, will move
southward into FL and stall by Tuesday afternoon.  Daytime
heating/mixing along the stalled front, as well as local sea breeze
circulations, will support the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms across central/north FL during the afternoon/evening. 
This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger westerly
flow aloft, and the combination of buoyancy and vertical shear does
not appear favorable for severe storms.

Otherwise, a midlevel shortwave trough will move over Vancouver/WA
Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Weak buoyancy rooted aloft will be
possible in the warm advection zone preceding the midlevel trough,
and steepening low-level lapse rates will allow shallow buoyancy in
the post-frontal environment late in the forecast period.  Isolated
lightning flashes could occur and this area will be re-examined in
later outlook updates.

..Thompson.. 03/23/2026

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 23 17:30:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 23 17:30:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas.

...Coastal Carolinas/Georgia...
A large upper trough continues to track eastward across the lower
Great Lakes and into New England today, while the associated surface
cold front sags across the southeast states.  As the front
approaches the more moist and marginally unstable offshore air mass,
showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous.  This
process will occur late this afternoon, and might result in a strong
storm or two along the immediate coast of NC before activity moves
out to sea.  Small hail or gusty winds are possible, but the overall
severe threat seems too low to warrant probabilities at this time.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 03/23/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

Much of the Elevated area was refined to account for the footprint
of recent precipitation across portions of South Carolina and
Georgia. The strong cold front and resultant associated downslope
flow over the lee side of the southern Appalachians required
expansion of the Elevated area farther west into portions of
northern Georgia as well. Higher recent rainfall accumulation to the
south of this area (where some of the windiest conditions are
expected) may allow for locally elevated conditions this evening as
the front passes.

..Stearns.. 03/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will modestly amplify in the Northeast today.
A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians.
Farther west, a weak lee trough will help to enhance surface winds
on the western flank of a surface high.

...Piedmont...
Dry, downslope winds off of the southern Appalachians will promote
elevated fire weather this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will be
possible in the lee of the terrain. RH is not as certain, but 25-30%
appears probable. Values closer to 20% may occur locally.

...Central Plains...
An enhanced surface pressure gradient will develop as a weak lee
trough deepens on the westerly flank of a seasonably strong surface
high in the Upper Midwest. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible.
How low RH will drop during the afternoon is the biggest uncertainty
in this scenario. Copious mid/high-level cloud cover is expected.
Most guidance suggests RH will be only marginally below elevated
criteria. Furthermore, the strongest winds may be slightly displaced
from the lowest RH. Overall, locally elevated conditions are
expected given dry fuels, but broad, sustained elevated conditions
are much less certain.

...Southwest into central High Plains...
Very dry conditions will exist from the Southwest into southeast
Colorado. RH of 10-20% is expected by the afternoon. Winds in most
locations will be relatively weak. Terrain-enhanced wind could reach
up to 20 mph. Locally elevated to near critical conditions could
occur.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...