
Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...
Valid 252321Z - 260045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe hail and wind threat continues for northern
portions of WW 134, but thunderstorm intensity downstream into
southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas is uncertain. Trends are
being monitored for the need for additional watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a collection of discrete cells and
a convective band have shown periodic intensification across
northern KS and southern NE. Occasional nickel to quarter sized hail
reports and sporadic gusts between 60-70 mph have been noted over
the past hour, and regional VWPs continue to sample favorable wind
profiles for maintenance of strong/severe convection. These trends
suggest that the threat for severe hail/wind should continue for the
next hour or so. However, latest surface observations show
downstream temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints
between 45-55 F. These observations support recent RAP mesoanalyses
that depict increasing inhibition and diminishing MLCAPE across
southeast NE and northeast KS. These thermodynamic conditions cast
uncertainty on downstream convective intensity. While the favorable
kinematic environment may compensate for the thermodynamic
deficiencies, the expectation is that this activity will generally
weaken with eastward extent after 00 UTC. Downstream watch issuance
will be considered if a weakening trend is not observed over the
next hour or so.
..Moore.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39089804 39319791 39819753 40829708 41259652 41279603
40989573 40389551 39979546 39379565 39069604 38909650
38939770 38939798 39089804
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-260140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-037-049-051-061-063- 067-069-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-095-099-101-107-109-111-121- 123-125-127-133-135-137-260140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CREEK GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Oklahoma
North Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...Intense storm development is expected through late
afternoon and early evening, initially and especially across
south-central Oklahoma and far northern Texas. Robust supercells
capable of very large hail are expected, along with heightened
tornado potential, especially in vicinity of the warm front.
Damaging wind potential will also steadily increase later this
evening as storms progress east-southeastward across the region.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Wichita Falls
TX to 65 miles northeast of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.
...Guyer
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DDC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 40 NNE CNK TO 30 S OLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534 ..MOORE..04/25/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-027-029-033-041-047-053-077-079-095-097-105-113-143- 145-151-155-157-159-169-173-185-191-201-260040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO REPUBLIC RICE SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WASHINGTON OKC003-011-039-043-047-053-059-071-073-083-093-103-119-151-153- 260040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas Far Southern Nebraska Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a surface boundary, and progress east-southeastward through early evening. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards, but a tornado could occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Concordia KS to 50 miles southwest of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...GuyerRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..04/25/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-047-087-143-260040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON WASHINGTON KSC015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-260040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC009-011-057-097-109-119-145-260040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON DADERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop east/northeast
through the evening. These storms will mainly pose a risk for large
hail in the 1.0-2.0 inch range. A few strong to severe wind gusts
also are possible. While the overall tornado risk is low, a surface
boundary across west-central Arkansas could lift northward this
evening and a tornado along this boundary is conditionally possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Bartlesville OK to 35 miles north northeast of Fayetteville AR.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Leitman
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 545
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms developing near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border
will develop east/southeast this evening. Isolated supercells
developing near a surface boundary will pose a risk for a few
tornadoes, very large hail up to 3 inches diameter, and scattered
damaging wind gusts this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Hot Springs AR to 25
miles southeast of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.
...Leitman
Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0426 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering subtropical jet and lee surface troughing will continue to bring dry and breezy conditions and resultant adverse fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Upper-level troughing deepens across the eastern U.S. by midweek, while a surface low and cold front provides much needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Another upper-level short wave reaches the Southwest on Day 6/Thursday, while a surface low evolves ahead of this mid-level feature across west TX. This would support widespread rainfall across NM and much of the Southern Plains on Thursday night into Day 7/Friday morning, as low-level moisture makes marked westward progress well into eastern NM, mitigating the fire weather threat across the region. ...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains... A fire weather threat will persist across portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday as robust, 55-65 knot mid-level flow from the west-southwest continues over this region early next week. Subsequent lee surface troughing in concert with deep layer westerly winds aloft will support dry, westerly flow and fire weather concerns across much of NM and the southern High Plains where broad 40% probabilities were largely maintained. At the surface, a cold front should sweep southward east of the Continental Divide midweek. Latest forecast guidance still suggests an improving fire weather scenario unfolding across the Southern Plains by the Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday time frame. Widespread rainfall is possible across much of the Southern Plains and into portions of the Southwest ahead of an advancing upper-level trough moving into northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday. A troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. should similarly ameliorate, at least temporarily, fire weather concerns for the Appalachians, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front and attendant precipitation push through the region. ..Williams.. 04/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The main adjustments made to the outlook (albeit minor) were to slightly extend the moderate risk-driven hail probabilities to the southwest to align with the current position of the surface boundary. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus has consistently depicted some of the most robust storms to form and anchor along this boundary. With current mesoanalysis already showing 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE colocated across far south-central OK, the current thinking is that intense supercells traversing this boundary will produce severe hail in the 3-4 inch range, and a couple of stones above 4 inches in diameter cannot be completely ruled out. Tornadoes may also occur, with the best chance of a strong to intense tornado being with a boundary-anchoring supercell that can remain discrete and dominant. ..Squitieri.. 04/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/ ...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z), especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north across south-central/east-central Oklahoma. 40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation, and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the surface triple point across North Texas. Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and across the ArkLaTex. ...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska... Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast... Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS, approach the region from the northwest late tonight.Read more