
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplified and partially blocked mid-level flow pattern over the US will persist much of this week before slowly devolving this weekend. Broad troughing over the East will continue as a cold continental air mass is reinforced by several frontal passages emanating from southern Canada. At the same time, a rex block over the West will keep relatively dry and unusually warm conditions in place for the next several days. Thereafter western ridging should slowly move eastward late this week as the overall flow pattern transitions to more zonal flow. While fire-weather concerns appear limited owing to below normal temperatures and recent precipitation over much of the eastern US, some areas of the West and FL could see dry/breezy conditions into next week. ...Southern CA... Beneath the upper ridge over the West Coast, a developing mid-level low near Baja California will encourage easterly low and mid-level flow over portions of Desert Southwest and southern CA D3/Wed and D4/Thursday. Ridge top gusts of 30-40 mph are possible early D3/Wednesday lingering into D4/Thursday with poor overnight RH recoveries below 30%. Although alignment of dry and breezy conditions are probable, a marginally dry fuelscape should limit more significant fire weather concerns. Thereafter, onshore flow should return as the upper low lifts north, limiting the fire-weather risk into the weekend. ...FL... The passage of several dry cold fronts later this week and into the weekend could support occasional dry/breezy conditions over parts of FL. With gusty northerly winds and offshore trajectories, well below average RH (20-30%) is expected D5/Friday and D6/Saturday. However, this will also coincide with below normal temperatures. Some fire-weather risk is possible late this week and into the weekend over the FL peninsula where precipitation has been limited. However, the overall threat for fire-weather activity is uncertain given only modestly receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast, northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained within the High Plains region. Another mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains. A similar pattern to Monday will occur on Tuesday. A weak surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and shift southward. A secondary cold front will again move through the central/southern High Plains. While dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the central/southern High Plains, a weaker surface pressure gradient and slightly cooler temperatures should mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, positive-tilt upper trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast vicinity, while another drops southward across the southern Plains. Weak convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near a cold front from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. This convection may continue through the day across parts of SC/GA and north FL, as the front advances southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, and forecast soundings suggest that convection will generally be too weak and low-topped for thunderstorm development. While very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, coverage currently appears too limited for any general thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 02/02/2026Read more