Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Discussion... A dry and stable air mass encompassing most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Weinman.. 02/05/2026Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night. ...Southern/Central CA... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West Coast, an embedded midlevel low will move east-southeastward along the southern CA coast through the period. Broad large-scale ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates accompanying this feature may yield sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy for a couple thunderstorms across the region -- with the best potential over the higher terrain late in the day. ..Weinman.. 02/05/2026Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level ridge becoming more expansive across the CONUS, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for most areas on account of relatively weak winds. There will be pockets of dry/breezy conditions in north/central Florida, but recent and expected precipitation should keep any fire weather concerns localized at best. ..Wendt.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place today. Ridging will dominate the West with troughing in the East. While fire weather concerns will generally be low, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible within a weak downslope flow regime. These conditions will occur within the lee of the northern Rockies extending into portions of the central High Plains. There are some drying fuels in these areas that could allow for localized elevated fire weather. RH will range from 15-25% with winds around 15 mph (locally greater). ..Wendt.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of a significant, progressive short wave trough, models indicate that an initially vigorous perturbation across the southern mid-latitude Pacific will be forced northeastward/eastward toward the North American Pacific coast today through tonight. As it approaches a prominent mid/upper high which has evolved inland of the U.S coast, it is forecast to split, with one of the emerging perturbations accelerating toward the British Columbia coast while the other digs toward the southern California coast. Downstream of the latter impulse, broader weak troughing initially offshore of southern California and Baja is forecast to slowly accelerate north/northeastward inland of coastal areas. While models indicate that the blocking ridge will probably undergo notable weakening today through tonight, it appears that amplified ridging will generally be maintained across the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, with another significant short wave trough of Arctic origins digging downstream, across the southwestern Hudson Bay vicinity. It appears that this will be accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front advancing across the international border into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late tonight. This is likely to occur coincident with strong downstream surface cyclogenesis, offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard through the southern mid-latitude western Atlantic, trailed by a cold front advancing south of the Florida peninsula through the Bahamas and western Caribbean. ...Florida... Inland of the Gulf coast, across the remainder of the central and southern peninsula, with the mid-level cold core continuing to trail to the northwest of the surface cold front, and mid/upper support for ascent perhaps weakening ahead of the front, forecast soundings indicate minimal potential for pre-frontal thunderstorm development today. ...Southwest... Model forecast soundings, particularly the Rapid Refresh, suggest that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and moisture return from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may lead to the development of weak conditional instability across parts of southern California through the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley by late tonight. However, this may mostly occur in the wake of an initial short wave impulse overspreading the region, with little potential for thunderstorm activity through 12Z Friday. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2026Read more