
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies and strengthen over the Midwest/Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, while another upper-level trough will move out of the Intermountain West and deepen over the central US Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. Yet another upper-level trough is likely to move southward into the West Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday. Late in the period, upper-level ridging is likely over the northeast Pacific onto the West Coast with upper-level troughing over the eastern US. Overall, fire weather concerns will be mostly low, but there may be some locations at times where elevated fire weather conditions are possible. Multiple days of dry/breezy conditions are likely on portions of the southern High Plains ahead of expected cold frontal passages this upcoming week, but there is a fair amount of forecast uncertainty regarding the magnitude and location of these dry/breezy conditions. Widespread rainfall is likely across most of the Southeast, but portions of southern Georgia and Florida could receive little appreciable rainfall, with dry post-frontal conditions likely mid to late next week. Given the forecast tracks of the upper-level troughs over the West, periodic offshore winds in California, especially southern California, are likely. However, fuels are unlikely to be receptive given the recent precipitation across the state, and only potentially elevated winds/RH are forecast currently. ..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/ ...Southern Plains vicinity... A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK. Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe potential appears low given expected modest updrafts intensity/longevity.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft will persist with nearly zonal flow. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture. Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is expected to remain non-severe. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2025Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy surface winds are expected across the southern High Plains in the vicinity of a cold front moving through the area. Over southeast NM, around 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will briefly overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of the front during the afternoon. However, marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. Farther east, dry return flow is expected across parts of the Southeast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given receptive fuels), generally light surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more