MD 0590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest/southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 280949Z - 281245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the morning hours, with isolated damaging hail possible. A
watch may be required.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front moving northward
into northwest TX and across the Red River, with 68-70 F dewpoints
to the south. Both IR imagery and GPS water vapor sensors indicate a
rapid northward surge of moisture, with PWAT values increasing from
0.55 to over 1.20" in about 2 hours. Already, thunderstorms have
developed 1-2 hours ahead of schedule southeast of LBB, and a
gradual increase has been seen in storm intensity.

Southerly winds just off the surface will raise elevated instability
values north of the warm front over the next several hours. Some
forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, though effective
value will depend on moisture depth/quality in the elevated
slab/layer. Clearly, the environment will favor hail regardless,
with deep-layer effective shear over 60 kt, along with steep lapse
rates aloft and ample/increasing moisture.

Uncertainty exists as to how far north severe hail cells will
develop, but consensus is at least into southern OK. Significant
hail over 2.00" diameter is quite possible, perhaps larger should
sustained elevated supercells develop as depicted by some models. As
such, a watch will need to be considered this morning.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33110118 33500114 34600015 35099890 35319756 35049663
            34489661 34189678 33759729 33199918 33000083 33110118 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and
central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject
eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS
Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread
northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a
low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the
lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a
weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain
over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big
Bend region.

A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the
ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning
warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX.
This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and
low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these
supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very
large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread
east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual
clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into
the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses
greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.

Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the
triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this
afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for
multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches)
may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very
favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even
though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern
Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In
its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift
northward some through the day, with the greater instability
forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse
rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through
the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to
numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely.
Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection
across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat
still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026

WW 0168 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0168 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 168 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 281030Z - 281800Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
530 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern Oklahoma
  Western North into North-Central Texas

* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 530 AM until
  100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose a threat for large
to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) as they spread
east-northeastward. Later this morning some clustering may occur,
with occasional damaging winds possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of
Wichita Falls TX to 30 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

...Gleason

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may
maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the
Rockies through this period.  While a broad area of lower mid-level
heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest
through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking
ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific
Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week.  A
developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across
California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging
building across the Rockies.  

There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave
developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection
will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts
of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San
Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or
just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain.  Due to
a combination of low predictability and low severe weather
potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less
than 15 percent through this period.

WW 0167 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 167

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE BVX
TO 25 N MEM TO 25 W MKL TO 50 E MKL TO 60 SSW CKV TO 25 SW BNA TO
25 SE BWG.

..JEWELL..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC035-037-077-107-123-280940-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRITTENDEN           CROSS               LEE                 
PHILLIPS             ST. FRANCIS         


MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-280940-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN               BENTON              CALHOUN             
CHICKASAW            COAHOMA             DESOTO              
ITAWAMBA             LAFAYETTE           LEE                 
MARSHALL             MONROE              PANOLA              
PONTOTOC             PRENTISS            QUITMAN             
TALLAHATCHIE         TATE                TIPPAH              
TISHOMINGO           TUNICA              UNION               
YALOBUSHA

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night
appear less than 5 percent.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights
will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of
the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard,
with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward
through the Great Lakes region.  In its wake split westerlies will
remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short
wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern
Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short
wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies,
downstream of the subtropical perturbation.

Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of
the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a
branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific.  However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging
is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley into Southeast.  While the frontal zone on the
leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the
Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern
Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity.  More
uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make
further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and
coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal
plain and Pecos Valley.

Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation,
may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development
above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin
and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late
Thursday night.  However, it remains unclear if elevated
destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail,
before convection becomes increasingly widespread.

Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while
destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin
into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal
thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026