SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot
quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic
Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front
advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf
Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this
morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain
sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it
approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity),
especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers
aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface
dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south
FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability
should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas.
Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of
the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually
focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft
strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Gleason.. 01/18/2026

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 18 12:56:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0026 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GA


Mesoscale Discussion 0026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Areas affected...Portions of far southeast AL and the western FL
Panhandle into southwest and central GA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 181206Z - 181700Z

SUMMARY...Rain will transition to snow this morning, with snowfall
rates around 0.5 to locally 1 inch per hour possible for a few hours
before diminishing.

DISCUSSION...A secondary surface cold front will continue to advance
southeastward across AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle this morning. A
plume of precipitation is ongoing ahead of/near the front across
southern/southeast AL into much of southern/central GA and parts of
the FL Panhandle. This activity is being aided by large-scale ascent
associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moving
eastward across the Southeast and the entrance region of a
pronounced southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Recent RAP/NAM
forecast soundings suggest that additional modest low/mid-level
cooling of already saturated profile will support a quick rain to
snow transition this morning across parts of southeast AL into
southwest/central GA and the FL Panhandle.

Latest (12Z) surface observations show this transition already
occurring across southeast AL, west-central GA, and the western FL
Panhandle, where temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s.
Expect this trend to continue farther east in southwest/central GA
through the remainder of the morning. While snowfall rates are not
forecast to be overly high, most guidance suggests that 0.5 to
locally 1 inch per hour rates may occur within the most intense
portion of the precipitation band. These enhanced snowfall rates
should not last more than a few hours in any given location, as
rapidly drying low/mid-levels on the back side of the shortwave
trough will quickly erode precipitation from west to east through
about 17Z (11 AM CST/Noon EST).

..Gleason.. 01/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30938620 32248492 33078410 33188303 32838259 32218282
            31528361 31058440 30698525 30518585 30658622 30938620

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains
and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest
Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley
ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be
possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and
severe potential is low. 

Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement
with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The
control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some
increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the
end of the forecast period.  However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any
Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these
large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.