
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle and into far western OK. ...Central High Plains... A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire spread on Monday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys... A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening. In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3 km. Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage, but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter) and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas. ...Carolinas into southeast Virginia... A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today, with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt. ...Southern TX... Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft, supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail) chances today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026Read more