MD 0046 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into West Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 242117Z - 250115Z

SUMMARY...An increase in precipitation coverage and intensity is
expected into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level shortwave trough can be seen across
northern Mexico on water vapor imagery. This trough is starting to
take on a negative tilt as it advances towards Far West Texas. As
this occurs, large-scale ascent will strengthen across the southern
High Plains.

This will result in an increase in coverage and intensity of
precipitation late this afternoon and into the evening. Regional
radar imagery shows this expansion beginning already with cooling
cloud tops upstream across northern Mexico and Far West Texas.
Forecast soundings support sleet across much of this area late this
afternoon and into early evening. However, the sleet/snow line will
move gradually southeast through the evening as temperatures cool
aloft.

Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snow
accumulations of 1 inch per hour are expected as forcing increases.
Particularly closer to 00Z.

..Bentley.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34160314 34690180 34790008 34479925 32320005 30890161
            30150217 30130305 30490430 32110449 34160314

MD 0045 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN MS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS


Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...northern MS to the southern Appalachians

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 241817Z - 242345Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain mixed with sleet is expected to expand
across parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians
through late afternoon. The most likely corridor for appreciable
accretion appears centered on north-central Mississippi, northwest
Alabama, and southeast Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A broad swath of mixed winter precip is ongoing from
KY/TN southwest to LA. The initial leading activity has largely
remained as sleet and snow, with greater liquid-equivalent rates in
sleet, freezing rain, and rain over LA. This latter plume is
expected to be the most prolific for freezing rain rates as it
shifts northeast through late afternoon. Liquid-equivalent rates of
.05 to .25 in/hr should remain common. Despite ample low-level
isentropic ascent, guidance is quite insistent on expanding the
above-freezing warm nose north-northeast across northern MS to
eastern TN through 00Z. A 15Z UL-Monroe sounding sampled around 12C
at 900 mb, indicative of a classic freezing rain/mixed sleet
profile. The overall setup suggests that these should become the
primary PTYPEs across central/northern MS through northwest AL to
southeast TN.

..Grams.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34209026 35448831 36048675 36338482 36348395 36048318
            35708306 35228341 34968374 34838495 34278684 33138962
            33659021 34209026

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on
current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected
precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is
possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer
to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this
occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe
probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information.

..Wendt.. 01/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing.  As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL.  This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear.  Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z.  Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the
eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will
continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the
Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to
the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of
Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the
weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs -
especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern
California. 

Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low
across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one
exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where
little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly
dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day
3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain
over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic
Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as
fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this
time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a
40% Critical fire weather probability.

..Elliott.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting
in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar
airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential.
A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL
Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of
the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the
withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day
2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting
precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's
fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 01/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central
US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS.
Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the
southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow
pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low
for D2/Sunday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...