SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 02/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in 
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 4 19:53:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 4 19:53:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook was needed. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the northern
High Plains Thursday. A building upper-level ridge over the
Intermountain West will promote record warm temperatures across the
northern High Plains where lower elevation fuels continue to dry
amid expanding drought and lack of snow cover. Downslope enhanced
West to northwest winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph in favorable
terrain) should align with relative humidity of 15-20% in localized
areas in the lee of the Rockies in central MT, but a broader fire
weather threat should be damped farther east where RH reductions
will be limited.

..Williams.. 02/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will shift more into the Plains on Thursday.
This will lead to warmer temperatures within the High Plains region.
Some modestly dry north/northwest winds will occur over the High
Plains and adjacent areas. However, winds of around 15 mph along
with marginally lowered RH in most locations does not suggest more
than a localized fire weather threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential generally appears low on Friday and Friday
night.

...Southwest...
Multiple minor shortwave impulses should gradually evolve within a
broad, low-amplitude trough shifting inland from the West Coast. 
Moisture for lightning-producing appears rather limited inland of
coastal southern CA, yielding insufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm
probabilities at or above 10 percent over the Mojave Desert and
Lower CO Valley. Still, most 12Z guidance indicates late-day
convective potential over the western Transverse Ranges. Scant
buoyancy amid 500-mb temperatures near -22 C, along with 
orographically augmented weak ascent, might foster a couple
thunderstorms.

..Grams.. 02/04/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Southern California...
A pronounced offshore pressure gradient continues to promote
east-northeast winds of 15-20 mph (25-35 mph with higher gusts in
favorable terrain corridors) amid relative humidity in the 10-20%
range. Despite the dry and breezy conditions amid near record
warmth, fuels remain largely unreceptive, mitigating a larger fire
weather threat across Southern CA today. 

...Northern Florida...
A surface low over GA will promote a subtle southwesterly flow over
much of FL today. A residual dry air mass across northern FL will
result in minimum relative humidity of 25-30% across the area.
However, higher sustained winds of 10-15 mph are expected to be
offset to the west of the drier conditions over northeastern FL,
mitigating a broader fire weather concern. Beneficial rainfall from
the surface low and trailing cold front are expected this evening
across northern FL, temporarily alleviating fire weather concerns.

..Williams.. 02/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level pattern with a ridge in the West and a
trough in the East will evolve through the day today. A cold front
will move off the Southeast coast and into the Florida Peninsula.
Elsewhere, surface high pressure will be quite expansive across the
CONUS.

...Southern Plains...
Modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected from West Texas into
parts of Central/South Texas. Winds will not be overly strong as
around 15 mph (locally near 20 mph) can be expected. RH will also be
marginally dry (25-30%). Given limited fuel receptiveness and these
marginal conditions, only locally elevated concerns are anticipated.

...Southern California...
15-20 mph winds (up to 30-40 mph in the terrain) will be possible
during the morning and part of the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be
possible. Despite these otherwise favorable fire weather conditions,
area fuels remain moist enough to mitigate greater fire weather
concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 02/04/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in 
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/04/2026