WW 637 SEVERE TSTM TX 232015Z - 240400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  West Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few
hours from the Permian Basin into the Pecos Valley. Strong vertical
shear overlapping modest buoyancy is expected to support initial
supercells, with large hail as the primary risk. A few strong gusts
and a brief tornado are possible as well. A trend towards a more
linear mode is anticipated with time, but the threat for isolated
hail and damaging gusts will likely persist through the evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast
of Big Spring TX to 75 miles east southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Mosier

WW 0637 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 637

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FST
TO 35 SW MAF TO 30 SW LBB.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2219

..MOORE..11/24/25

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC033-081-095-103-105-115-135-151-173-207-227-235-253-317-329-
335-353-371-383-399-413-415-431-435-441-443-451-461-240140-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BORDEN               COKE                CONCHO              
CRANE                CROCKETT            DAWSON              
ECTOR                FISHER              GLASSCOCK           
HASKELL              HOWARD              IRION               
JONES                MARTIN              MIDLAND             
MITCHELL             NOLAN               PECOS               
REAGAN               RUNNELS             SCHLEICHER          
SCURRY               STERLING            SUTTON              
TAYLOR               TERRELL             TOM GREEN           
UPTON                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

MD 2219 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU


Mesoscale Discussion 2219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and the Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

Valid 232330Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms remain probable in the coming
hours across portions of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau where the
convective environment remains very favorable for organized
convection.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows a broken line of
thunderstorms between the I-20 and I-10 corridors west of the San
Angelo, TX region. While most cells remain fairly weak, a leading
supercell has shown periodic intensification and a persistent,
albeit weak, mid-level mesocyclone. Despite the meager intensity
thus far, these cells are beginning to move into the axis of better
low-level moisture where MLCAPE is regionally maximized (between
1000-1500 J/kg). Regional VWPs continue to sample elongated
hodographs featuring 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 50-60 knots.
As such, the regionally best convective environment remains
immediately downstream of ongoing cells, which may support an uptick
in convective intensity in the coming hours. Additionally, new
updraft development is noted in IR imagery on the southwestern flank
of the broken band, hinting that an increase in thunderstorm
coverage is probable. Recent CAM solutions support this idea and
suggest thunderstorm coverage may be maximized in the coming hours.

..Moore.. 11/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29870237 30050267 30310288 30630303 30900301 31170284
            32090178 32290156 32370112 32340062 32240020 31979993
            31499984 31119989 30850004 30200066 29930102 29750137
            29730168 29760203 29870237 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level short wave currently over the Southwest will shift
eastward and deamplify through Day 3/Tuesday while an accompanying 
surface cold front will aid in bringing more precipitation to much
of eastern U.S. A strengthening surface cyclone over the Great Lakes
and deepening mid-level trough encompassing the eastern U.S. on Day
4/Thursday, should usher in colder and drier air mass into much of
the region through late week, mitigating fire weather concerns.
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a deep upper-level trough
evolving across the West over the weekend with subsequent surface
cyclogenesis over the Central Plains supporting the potential for
additional widespread precipitation across the central U.S. Weak
offshore flow across southern CA along with dry conditions under a
ridge aloft are expected Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. However, recent
expansive precipitation events have limited fuel receptiveness to
wildfire spread across southern CA. Overall, minimal fire weather
concerns across the contiguous U.S. are expected next week.

..Williams.. 11/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
severe gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
west Texas.

...20Z Update...
Both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly
northwestward in the TX South Plains. Here, continued diurnal
heating amid middle 50s dewpoints is yielding sufficient
surface-based buoyancy for any left-mover supercells that may evolve
(posing a risk of severe hail). Additionally, a significant-hail
area was added over the western part of the Slight Risk. Given the
expectation for discrete storms in this area, a long/mostly straight
hodograph and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE should support hail to around
2 inches in diameter with any longer-lived supercells. Finally, the
5-percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward. Despite
increasing boundary-layer static stability, gradual upscale growth
and a focused/eastward-translating low-level jet should allow for
embedded severe gusts within the line into the early morning hours.
For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2218.

..Weinman.. 11/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado. 

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.