SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Update...
No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the
previous discussion below for details.

..Barnes.. 01/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several
rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern
US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place
across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given
widespread cold and wet conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 23 19:47:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0034 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TO NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK


Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...west to north TX and southern OK

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 231855Z - 240000Z

SUMMARY...A plume of mixed precipitation is expected to
substantially increase into early evening from west to north Texas
into southern Oklahoma. Sleet should be the primary precipitation
type, with the freezing rain line gradually shifting south. Initial
rates should generally be light, before increasing tonight.

DISCUSSION...Initial swath of precipitation has been increasing over
the past few hours across the South Plains to central TX. The
northern extent of this precip shield is about to overspread a
southward-moving nose of sub-freezing surface temperatures across
the Low Rolling Plains, centered on the surface ridge over northwest
TX. This should initially impact areas near to southeast of LBB, but
will increase greatly in areal coverage by late afternoon into early
evening. Light freezing rain should be anticipated where surface
temps remain in the 29-32 F range. Sleet should be the overarching
PTYPE through 00Z as low-level warm theta-e advection in the 850-700
mb layer maintains an above-freezing warm nose atop the increasingly
cold boundary layer. Pervasive surface dry advection will slow the
northern extent of winter precip reaching the surface, especially in
OK, through early evening. This should also aid in yielding
generally light liquid-equivalent rates until tonight.

..Grams.. 01/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32100095 32060243 32580359 33040380 33540343 34530026
            34909770 34659610 34229569 33839585 33669688 32479983
            32100095

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 01/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK.  Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms.  This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.  

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s.  Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark.  While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI,...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by
some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Within a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies,
models suggest that positively tilted larger-scale mid-level
troughing may continue to consolidate while progressing across and
east of the Mississippi Valley during this period, downstream of
broad mid-level ridging within split flow developing inland of the
Pacific coast into Intermountain West.  In its wake, it appears that
another notable cold surface ridge will build south-southeastward to
the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night.  Ahead of it, models
indicate that the remnants of a preceding Arctic intrusion will
undergo more substantive modification, but, coupled with weak inland
 upper forcing, probably not enough to support significant frontal
surface cyclogenesis across the Allegheny Plateau or Southeast.

...Eastern Gulf Coast states...
Guidance currently suggests that low-level thermal and moisture
advection, supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, may be
confined to a narrow inland spreading corridor across southeastern
Louisiana through portions of southern/eastern Alabama and adjacent
Georgia during the day Sunday, before being undercut/cut off by a
developing cold front.  It appears that this will coincide with, but
generally trail to the southwest of, a modest to weak developing
frontal wave across the Piedmont of Alabama into Georgia.

Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreading the destabilizing
environment will probably still contribute to shear potentially
conducive to organized convective development.  This may include
sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the pre-cold
frontal warm advection regime.  However, forecast soundings suggest
that these low-level hodographs will trend more linear, as the 
initially stable boundary-layer destabilizes.  So the risk for
tornadoes seems rather limited, but there may be a window for an
evolving line of storms with potential to produce strong surface
wind gusts, particularly across parts of southeastern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday
afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 01/23/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western
North America, it still appears that several short wave troughs will
gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across
the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley through this
period.  This is likely to include at least a couple of merging
perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the
international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great
Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the
southern Great Basin.  Yet another impulse, emerging from the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and currently in the form of
a mid-level low as it digs toward Baja, is forecast to undergo
considerable deformation while being forced eastward, then
northeastward, across the northern Mexican Plateau into the southern
Great Plains by late Saturday night.

This is being preceded by the southeastward development of an
expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity.  While
highest surface pressures centered across the Upper Midwest, Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes at the outset of the period are forecast to
continue to fall while shifting northeastward, it appears that the
residual Arctic air mass will impede significant inland surface
cyclogenesis.  

Models do still indicate modest deepening of surface troughing in
one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower
Ohio Valley (as well as in another near/offshore of the Carolina
coast) by late Saturday through Saturday night.  Elevated moisture
return above the cold air to the north and northwest of this feature
appears likely to be accompanied by weak destabilization.  However,
appreciable boundary-layer destabilization along the surface trough
axis, inland across southeastern Louisiana through southeastern/east
central Mississippi and adjacent western Alabama by 12Z Sunday,
appears unlikely.  This is expected to minimize the risk for severe
weather.

...Southern Great Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Convection allowing output and other guidance suggest that the most
substantive potential for thunderstorm development will largely
focus just to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, near/inland
of mid/upper Texas Gulf coastal areas through Louisiana and
central/southwestern Mississippi Saturday through Saturday night.. 
Layers of developing weak conditional and convective instability
further aloft, and to the west through north, might become
supportive of convective development capable of producing lightning,
anywhere from the Texas South Plains and Big Country into the Mid
South.  The extent of this potential remains a bit unclear due to
spread evident in the model output.  However, further adjustments to
the 10 percent thunder line may be needed in subsequent outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 01/23/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Update...
The fire weather risk will remain low today. No changes were
required. Please see the previous discussion below for additional
details.

..Barnes.. 01/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today.
A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in
cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central
and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns
low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK.  Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms.  This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.  

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s.  Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark.  While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026