MD 0225 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and
Mississippi...southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 112318Z - 120115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
intensify and organize while advancing east of the lower Mississippi
Valley through 7-10 CDT, preceded by at least a couple of developing
supercells.  It appears that this may be accompanied by increasing
potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been slowly intensifying
along eastward advancing conglomerate convective outflow across
central Louisiana, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a
lower/mid-tropospheric short wave perturbation progressing toward
the lower Mississippi Valley.  Southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
ahead of the perturbation is on the order of 40+ kt, with shear
strong.  Although lapse rates do not appear particularly steep,
forecast soundings suggest that mixed-layer CAPE is now generally on
the order of 1000-1500 J/kg across the region.  Inflow of this air
may support continuing upscale convective growth, as more discrete
storms also develop and intensify downstream across parts of
southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi.

Latest Rapid Refresh indicates that a 30-35+ kt southwesterly 850 mb
jet nosing inland across south central Louisiana will continue
propagating east-northeastward through this evening, contributing to
enlarging low-level hodographs which could supporting increasing
potential for tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind gust.

..Kerr/Smith.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30869254 31919097 33008948 33758718 32068706 30288955
            29219111 29669254 30869254 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

MD 0224 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC


Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112247Z - 120045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist
into the early evening hours across the northern Mid Atlantic
states, with damaging winds and perhaps hail being the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms on the eastern edge of
WW 45 will pose a threat for primarily damaging straight-line winds
into the early evening hours. There is still a small window of
tornado potential through at least 8 PM EDT, though forecast
profiles ahead of the ongoing storms show a rapid stabilization of
the nocturnal boundary layer. Even with this stabilization, there is
sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer vertical shear to support a
continued severe threat as storms make the transition from
surface-based to elevated. Some potential for hail exists, though is
expected to largely remain at or below 1.0 inches in diameter.

..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39047785 39457751 39687732 40067743 40597662 40677582
            40507468 40237392 39427427 38607497 38857773 39047785 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

WW 0045 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 45

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HLG
TO 30 SSE LBE TO 20 N AOO.

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12/00Z.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MDC001-005-013-021-023-025-027-031-043-510-120000-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             BALTIMORE           CARROLL             
FREDERICK            GARRETT             HARFORD             
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          WASHINGTON          




MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY       


PAC001-009-013-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-067-071-075-087-
093-097-099-107-109-111-133-120000-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WW 0046 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 46

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HSV TO
30 WSW CSV.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC089-103-112340-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MADISON              MORGAN              


TNC035-049-051-112340-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CUMBERLAND           FENTRESS            FRANKLIN            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 47 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 112300Z - 120300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 47
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Delaware
  Eastern Maryland
  Central and Southern New Jersey
  Eastern Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday evening from 700 PM until 1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A broken cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will
move west to east across the Watch area this evening.  The stronger
storms will mainly be capable of a wind-damage risk, but a brief
tornado is possible.  This activity will likely move east of the
coast by the late evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest
of Trenton NJ to 30 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Smith

WW 0047 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0047 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 48 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 112355Z - 120700Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 48
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  West-Central and Southwest Alabama
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southern and Southeast Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 655 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...An organizing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to move east across the Watch this evening into the early
overnight hours.  Damaging straight-line winds and a tornado risk
will probably accompany the more intense portions of the squall
line.  Additionally, a couple of supercells ahead of the band are
also possible and may yield an all hazard risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Meridian MS to 25
miles southwest of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 47...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Smith

WW 0048 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0048 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 0044 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 44

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LCH TO
30 NNE ESF.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC001-009-023-039-053-059-079-097-120040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA               AVOYELLES           CAMERON             
EVANGELINE           JEFFERSON DAVIS     LA SALLE            
RAPIDES              ST. LANDRY          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 44 TORNADO LA TX CW 111625Z - 112300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 44
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western, Central, and Northern Louisiana
  East and Southeast Texas
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
  600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon and into the early evening while
posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds.
Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph with bowing line segments. A
strong tornado is possible if supercells develop ahead of the line
this afternoon.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Houston TX
to 15 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Gleason

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

Northwest flow aloft will be in place across much of the CONUS on
Day 3/Friday. Flow becomes more zonal across much of the central
CONUS for Day 4/Saturday as the first indications of a upper level
shortwave trough drops through the Pacific Northwest. By Day
5/Sunday, this trough digs significantly southward over the central
Plains and reaches the southern Appalachian Mountains by Day
6/Monday before retreating northward again on Day 7/Tuesday over the
Eastern Seaboard. The latest forecast guidance continues to dig the
trough farther south with successive runs, suggesting some
uncertainty related to the trough's evolution as it moves eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS
while the Great Plains remain between the two features under
northwest flow. Forecast guidance continues to show the upper level
high strengthening well above seasonal norms generally centered over
Arizona Day 8/Wednesday and beyond.

On Day 3/Friday, downslope flow off the central and southern Rocky
Mountains will continue. Minimal changes were made to the 40%
probabilities for this day. Forecast guidance continues to show wind
and RH values falling within elevated criteria. Over the southern
and central Appalachians, there remains significant differences in
forecast guidance as to how dry surface air will become under the
post-frontal environment not mention preceding rainfall. This will
be watched with future issuances.

On Day 4/Saturday, the latest forecast guidance indicates a slightly
more southerly track associated with the aforementioned deep trough.
This will allow for stronger winds to impact much of the state of
New Mexico, thus necessitating a 70% area of critical conditions.
The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
farther west was the high fuel moistures across extreme western New
Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are expected to meet
criteria. However, this event will serve to pre-condition fuels in
these areas. Farther north through the Front Range, yet another day
of downslope winds will need to be watched for trends toward a
potential mountain wave setup.

On Day 5/Sunday, on the back side of the trough, expect northwest
flow to provide another day of strong winds associated with
persistent dry air again over southeastern New Mexico and much of
west Texas. The 40% area was moved slightly south over this region
with a 70% area also introduced over extreme southeast New Mexico
and portions of nearby west Texas.

Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will serve to cure
fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
Regardless of winds, RHs would suggest extended burn periods across
these areas given receptive fuels.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0043 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 43

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W SDF TO
15 WSW LUK.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC019-043-061-115-155-112240-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARK                FLOYD               HARRISON            
OHIO                 SWITZERLAND         


KYC011-015-017-023-029-037-041-063-069-073-077-081-097-103-111-
117-135-161-163-181-185-187-191-201-205-209-211-215-223-
112240-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BATH                 BOONE               BOURBON             
BRACKEN              BULLITT             CAMPBELL            
CARROLL              ELLIOTT             FLEMING             
FRANKLIN             GALLATIN            GRANT               
HARRISON             HENRY               JEFFERSON           
KENTON               LEWIS               MASON               
MEADE                NICHOLAS            OLDHAM              
OWEN                 PENDLETON           ROBERTSON           
ROWAN                SCOTT               SHELBY

WW 0042 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 42

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MGW
TO 25 ESE ZZV TO 20 NW PIT.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OHC013-059-067-081-111-121-112240-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BELMONT              GUERNSEY            HARRISON            
JEFFERSON            MONROE              NOBLE               


WVC009-029-051-069-103-112240-

WV 
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOKE               HANCOCK             MARSHALL            
OHIO                 WETZEL              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE GULF COAST TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from the Gulf coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...20z update...
Storm coverage has been a bit more limited compared to earlier
expectations for the OH Valley into the Appalachians, though widely
scattered storms persist in an environment with relatively straight
hodographs and weak-moderate buoyancy.  Some tornado/wind threat
persists with perhaps a locally greater threat for a couple of
tornadoes in PA where storms interact with a diffuse north-south
baroclinic zone.

Otherwise, storm clusters/line segments are more concentrated across
middle TN and extreme southeast TX.  The TN storms will pose mainly
a wind/marginal hail threat for the next few hours, while the
southeast TX storms will spread eastward with some uptick in the
wind/tornado threat overnight as the upstream midlevel trough begins
to accelerate eastward.  A separate/small area with some wind/hail
threat will be associated with the midlevel cold core later this
afternoon across interior southeast TX.

..Thompson.. 03/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/

...OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening...
A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward
across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in
advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over
the upper MS Valley.  The warm sector of the cyclone is
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into
OH/western PA/WV as of midday.  Clouds/convection have been
prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle
MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas
immediately south of this morning convection.  Additional
thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from
southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms
will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this
evening.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long
low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and
supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of
damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening.

...Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight...
Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching
southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along
a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss. 
Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream
from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a
continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from
southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss.  Though regional soundings are
limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface
observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in
advance of the ongoing storms.  Deep-layer southwesterly shear,
largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain
clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also
possible.  Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the
potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or
favorable storm mergers into the band of storms.  Otherwise, wind
damage will be the main threat with the line segments through
tonight.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

The northern extents of both the Critical and Elevated risk areas
have been shifted southward to account for recent precipitation and
the latest model guidance. Conversely, the risk areas have been
expanded eastward as guidance trends more progressive with the dry
air mass currently blanketing the central and southern Plains. The
new Critical area now encompasses both previous Critical areas with
additional portions of the southern/central Plains also now
included. While the synoptic pattern provides multiple forcing
mechanisms across this broad region, localized areas, particularly
in extreme eastern Colorado, may see transient periods where wind
and RH thresholds are not perfectly coincident.

Across extreme south Texas, the timing of lowest RHs and strongest
winds appear out of sync according to latest forecast guidance.
Thus, this area doesn't meet elevated combined wind and RH
thresholds. Across northern Georgia and the western Carolinas,
post-frontal winds will combine with slightly drier air to bring
localized elevated wind and RH conditions to the region. However,
recent rainfall is a mitigating factor likely keeping forecast
guidance from dropping RHs any lower. Both of these areas will be
monitored as future forecast guidance becomes available.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the
West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the
Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field
across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday.  Lee trough
development extending southward from the parent low over the
central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a
dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region.

...Central Plains...
Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed
boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest
winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High
Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of
20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire
weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions
where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align.

...Southern Plains...
A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve
across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad
west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model
guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon
aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer
heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing across the Ohio Valley and lower MS
Valley will migrate off the East Coast and down the FL peninsula
through Thursday before stalling over southern FL early Friday
morning. A dry/cool air mass overspreading much of the CONUS in the
wake of this front will mitigate thunderstorm potential for most
areas aside from the southern FL peninsula. Although lapse rates
will be very marginal, rich low-level moisture coupled with
negligible capping should yield a thermodynamic environment
supportive of deep convection. 20-30 knot flow above 6 km may
support some degree of storm organization, but very weak low-level
winds/convergence should generally limit storm coverage and modulate
overall convective intensity.

..Moore.. 03/11/2026