SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may persist for few more hours this evening
across parts of central Florida and late tonight over portions of
coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...Discussion...
A few storms remain this evening along and slightly north of the
cold front in central Florida. Weak to moderate instability remains
across this region and could support these storms for a few more
hours. However, as the boundary layer continues to cool, expect the
storms to weaken over land.

Some lightning is possible late tonight near the Washington coast as
cooling temperatures aloft result in weak instability over the
relatively warm waters off the Washington coast.

..Bentley.. 03/25/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
An embedded short wave will propagate eastward within a largely
zonal mid-level flow maxima across the northern CONUS amplifying
before reaching the Great Lakes and Northeast by Days
5-6/Saturday-Sunday. A more subtle mid-level perturbation moving
into the Southern Plains on Day 3/Thursday along with a deepening
lee surface cyclone and trailing cold front should support a broad
fire weather threat across the Southwest and Southern Plains.
Farther west, an upper-level ridge builds across the Western U.S.
over the weekend, before a more progressive upper-level wave pattern
evolves across the contiguous U.S. for next week, likely bringing
much needed increasing chances for precipitation across the
Intermountain West.

...Day 3/Thursday - Upper Colorado River Basin and Southern
Plains...
The approaching mid-level short wave and an evolving surface cyclone
sliding southward into the southern High Plains will support a dry,
downslope regime across much of the region. Alignment of breezy
west-southwest winds, low humidity, well above normal temperatures
south of the advancing cold front is most likely across eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle where a 70% critical area remains. The
surrounding 40% critical probability area was expanded into much of
the Upper CO River Basin where accelerated drying of fuels has been
observed amid successive days of record/near record setting high
temperatures over the past several days across the West. The cold
front will quickly sweep southward from NE Thursday morning,
reaching well into TX by Thursday evening. This should pose at least
an initial fire weather concern for potentially active fires with
abrupt northward wind shifts expected. North-northeast winds behind
the front will be strong, although colder temperatures and higher
relative humidity should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
overnight.

...Day 4/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
A dry, post-frontal environment should encompass portions of the
central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. Despite cooler
temperatures, gusty north-northeast winds and low relative humidity
during peak heating amid very dry fuels will support at least an
elevated fire weather threat across southern KS, OK, into portions
of northwest TX and Panhandle regions, where a 40% critical
probability area was introduced.

...Day 5/Saturday - Central Plains and Portions of the Southeast...
A dry return flow pattern emerges across the Central Plains by Day
5/Saturday as surface high pressure slides into the OH River Valley
and lee troughing develops across the northern High Plains. This
should support a corridor of pronounced southerly flow across
portions of western KS/far eastern CO into NE and southern SD.
Widespread rainfall associated with the cold frontal passage on Days
3/Thursday is not expected with an expansive dry fuelscape remaining
largely intact. Dry, post-frontal northeasterly flow should enhance
fire weather concerns across portions of the Southeast where fuels
remain dry amid ongoing drought. Slight expansions were made to both
40% critical probability areas given latest model guidance
consensus.

...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
Forecast guidance continues to suggest upper-level troughing
developing across the West early next week. Initial surge of
mid/upper level Pacific moisture within the increasingly southwest
flow and daytime instability over higher terrain could bring
thunderstorms back into the CO River Basin. However, deeper Pacific
moisture along with the arrival of more pronounced and progressive
mid-level trough could provide a better opportunity for more
widespread rain and higher elevation snow to much of the West by Day
8/Tuesday, temporarily reducing overall fire weather concerns.
Similarly, increasing boundary layer moisture streaming northward
into the southern and central Plains reduces predictability in
overlap of breezy and dry conditions precluding introduction of
critical probabilities.

..Williams.. 03/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...