SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update - Florida...

The 00z RAOB from MFL showed modest instability, but warm
temperatures through 700 mb. This should largely limit thunderstorm
activity, especially inland. Nevertheless, a few lightning flashes
remain possible through tonight near the immediate coast or over the
offshore waters from the Keys through southeast FL.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern U.S.
will invite largely cooler, more stable conditions across the
region. Primary fire-effective weather concerns continue to be
impacts from frontal passages through the weekend across the central
and southern Plains where precipitation is unlikely and dry fuels
remain. The Southeast is also susceptible to dry, post frontal winds
but preceding precipitation on Day 2/Wednesday could mitigate a
larger fire weather threat.

...Day 3/Thursday...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft should contribute to a strengthening
lee surface trough across the northern and central Plains on Day
3/Thursday. Dry, downsloping flow from the west-southwest is likely
to develop across the southern High Plains, aligning with
receptive/dormant fine fuels to enhance fire risk. Farther north, an
advancing cold front within a broad northwesterly flow regime should
support strong northwest winds across portions of the central Plains
Thursday. Some precipitation is anticipated through the early Day
2/Wednesday period but  probabilities of significant amounts appear
low. Dry conditions and onset of stronger northwest surface winds
returning rapidly Thursday, supporting an enhanced fire weather
concern where pockets drier fuels overlap. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for portions of northeast CO into
northwest KS. Dry, post-frontal northwest flow (with enhanced
downslope drying in the lee of the Appalachians) should envelope
much of the Piedmont region Thursday. However, colder temperatures
and preceding rainfall, albeit light, could largely mitigate the
fire weather threat. 

...Day 4/Friday...
Fire weather concerns increase across the Southern Plains on Day
4/Friday as a cold front quickly translates southward into the
region ahead of a pronounced upper-level short wave over the
Midwest. A drier, continental-polar air mass behind the front will
support lower surface dew points and daytime relative humidity
across the central and southern Plains Day 4/Friday. The most likely
area for alignment of gusty winds and driest conditions remains
across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK where 40%
probabilities were introduced, while colder temperatures and cloud
cover could somewhat mitigate the fire weather threat farther north
in the central Plains.

...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Larger scale pattern of ridging across the West and complimentary
troughing in the eastern U.S. is likely to hold through early next
week. Fire weather predictability challenges arise by the weekend
with increased uncertainty in timing of frontal features east of the
Continental Divide. However, the Southern Plains and Southeast 
remain susceptible to these events given dry fuels and minimal
expected rainfall.

..Williams.. 01/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...