MD 0372 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

Valid 100142Z - 100345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds will likely increase over
the next few hours before diminishing later this evening.

DISCUSSION...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to
convective clusters is evident across northern KS in regional radar
imagery. MRMS data shows vertically integrated ice steadily
declining while velocity data from KTWS depicts a recent surge in
outflow from the leading supercells. Downstream VWP observations
show a steady increase in 0-2 km winds over the past hour as the
nocturnal jet begins to strengthen. This hints at increasing
isentropic ascent along the frontal boundary draped across northeast
KS, which will continue to support an uptick in thunderstorm
development in the coming hours. While severe hail will remain
possible in the short term, a transition to primarily a severe wind
threat is anticipated as thunderstorm coverage and cold pool
amalgamation increases - especially downstream from the most
organized cluster emerging over northern Riley/northwest
Pottawatomie counties. This activity will likely spread
east/southeastward along and north of the I-70 corridor towards the
KS/MO border. East and south of here, drier low-level conditions and
more meager buoyancy will likely limit the severe threat heading
into the overnight hours and mitigate the need for further watches.

..Moore.. 04/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39469738 39589711 39809668 39859648 39879617 39789506
            39509498 39289513 38839586 38799617 38819643 39249743
            39369749 39469738 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts remain possible this evening across parts of Kansas, southeast
Nebraska, and northwest Missouri.

...Central/southern Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms have developed this evening from
southwest into north-central KS and far southern NE this evening,
near/south of a southward-moving cold front, and along/east of a
weak dryline. Despite modest low-level moisture (with warm-sector
dewpoints generally in the low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates
and relatively cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, within a moderately sheared environment. 

A few relatively high-based supercells remain possible through the
evening, with an attendant threat of large hail (potentially
golf-ball-sized or larger) and localized severe gusts. A tornado
also cannot be ruled out across north-central/northeast KS, as
low-level moisture/shear gradually improve in conjunction with a
nocturnal low-level jet. Otherwise, some upscale growth remains
possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated
severe-wind threat spreading across parts of northeast KS and
northwest MO later tonight, before the threat diminishes in response
to increasing MLCINH. See MCD 370 and MD 371 for more information
regarding the short-term severe threat in this area. 

...Northwest CA/southwest OR vicinity...
A few strong storms remain possible through early evening across
parts of northwest CA and southwest OR, in association with an upper
low off of the northern CA coast. Any remaining severe threat should
tend to diminish with time, as already weak buoyancy further
decreases due to convective overturning and nocturnal stabilization.

...CA Central Valley...
Isolated strong storms have recently developed across parts of the
CA central valley, with a supercell noted northwest of Fresno. While
deep-layer flow is rather weak, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and modest
veering of the wind profile could support a very isolated threat of
gusty winds and small to marginally severe hail, though coverage and
duration of the threat are expected to remain limited.

..Dean.. 04/10/2026

WW 98 SEVERE TSTM KS MO NE 092210Z - 100400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 98
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest into Central and Northeast Kansas
  Northwest Missouri
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
early this evening.  The stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire
supercellular characteristics, mainly across northern portions of
Kansas.  Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger
updrafts.  A brief period for a tornado is possible this evening
mainly across northern Kansas where supercells will be the preferred
storm type through early evening.  Severe gusts 60 to 75 mph are
possible with high-based thunderstorms over southwest Kansas
northeastward to where an eventual cluster of thunderstorms is
likely to develop by mid to late evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northeast of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles west northwest of Dodge
City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25015.

...Smith

WW 0098 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 98

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL
TO 15 NE DDC TO 25 W RSL TO 45 NNE RSL TO 30 NNW CNK TO 20 NW BIE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370

..MOORE..04/10/26

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC005-009-013-025-027-029-041-043-047-053-057-061-085-087-089-
097-105-113-117-119-123-131-143-145-149-157-159-161-165-167-169-
185-201-100140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATCHISON             BARTON              BROWN               
CLARK                CLAY                CLOUD               
DICKINSON            DONIPHAN            EDWARDS             
ELLSWORTH            FORD                GEARY               
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JEWELL              
KIOWA                LINCOLN             MCPHERSON           
MARSHALL             MEADE               MITCHELL            
NEMAHA               OTTAWA              PAWNEE              
POTTAWATOMIE         REPUBLIC            RICE                
RILEY                RUSH                RUSSELL             
SALINE               STAFFORD            WASHINGTON          


MOC003-005-021-087-147-100140-

MO

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is
forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an
upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly
shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day
7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of
precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would
temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level
ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should
promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of
the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards
the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east.  

...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday...
Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent
RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region
range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above
the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire
weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be
adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent
of gulf moisture advection. 

...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday...
Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent
shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in
precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall
earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on
Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface
pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance
dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent
probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both
days to account for these concerns.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...