Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the
process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by
12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance
across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before
stalling later this work week into next weekend.  It appears that
this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of
subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and
influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this
period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of
the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both
ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential
for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.  An evolving pre-frontal corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex
through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale
growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear
associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the
region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the
lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a
focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development,
particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation,
emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern
Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies.  However, barring
more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast,
potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...A PORTION OF
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF EASTERN
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening.  At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
Missouri.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed
across the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region during this
period, as a notable short wave perturbation and associated 50-70 kt
cyclonic 500 mb jet streak progress northeast of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley region.  Beneath a plume of warm/capping elevated
mixed-layer air nosing northeastward across the middle Mississippi
Valley, low-level warm sector moistening is generally forecast to
contribute to moderate to strong potential instability.  Although
the details of the potential convective evolution remain unclear,
the environment appears likely to become supportive of organized
severe thunderstorm development, including supercells.  Even if
convection grows quickly upscale into one or more clusters/lines,
embedded supercell structures will probably still pose potential for
producing strong tornadoes.  If an initially discrete supercell mode
is maintained for a sustained period, tornadic potential could
maximize, with a few long track, particularly damaging tornadoes
possible.

At this time, it appears that strongest thunderstorm development may
initially focus in forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of the
initially capping elevated mixed-layer across parts of southeastern
Iowa into central Illinois.  Enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs along this corridor, perhaps coinciding with a zone of
stronger differential surface heating associated with a modifying
outflow boundary, may become conducive to several strong tornadic
supercells before convection tends to grow upscale while propagating
southeastward into Monday evening.

A dryline structure extending southwestward through portions of
eastern Missouri may also support initially discrete supercell
development, before activity tends to grow upscale ahead of an
advancing cold front while spreading into the lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys through Monday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts. 

Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX. 

The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.

..Moore.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early
Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great
Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread
toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a remnant elongated cyclonic
mid-level circulation will tend to redevelop north-northeastward
through Saskatchewan/Manitoba during this period, within generally
weakening larger-scale troughing extending along an axis inland of
the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity.  At the same
time, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions
of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears
likely to maintain considerable strength, as a notable short wave
perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower
Colorado Valley, within southwesterly flow which is likely to
strengthen across the southern Rockies through central Great Plains
late Sunday through Sunday night.

There appears a bit more disparity within guidance concerning when
the stronger mid-level height falls associated with the primary
impulse spread across the Rockies through the eastern
Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high
plains.  It now appears that it may not be until early evening or
later, but it does appear that this may be preceded by a more subtle
perturbation across the same vicinity, perhaps as early as Sunday
morning.  The lead wave may be accompanied by one developing surface
low within lee surface troughing across central Nebraska into the
mid Missouri Valley, while the trailing wave supports the eastward
migration of another surface cyclone out of southeastern Colorado
into central Kansas late Sunday through 12Z Monday.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon.  Downstream, models
suggest that warm advection, at least in lower/mid-levels, will
strengthen and become focused in a corridor across north central
through northeastern Kansas by late Sunday evening, near the nose of
a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.

...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, has not
offered much more in the way of clarity concerning convective
potential for this period.  Among other issues, the plume of warm
elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeastward through the
southern and central Great Plains may prove inhibitive to the
initiation of storms across much of the developing warm sector,
while also contributing to moderate to strong potential instability.
 Potential for early day convection across western Kansas and
adjacent portions of the high plains may also impact later day
severe weather potential.

Even so, guidance generally indicates that a cyclonically curved,
50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak will nose across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region by early Sunday evening.  This likely will
contribute to strengthening convergence along a sharpening dryline,
particularly across portions of western Kansas, where at least a
narrow corridor of moderate boundary-layer destabilization probably
will become supportive of supercell development.  The potential for
a couple of strong tornadoes probably will increase as cells
propagate east-northeastward Sunday evening, in the presence of
enlarging clockwise curved hodographs beneath a strengthening
southerly low-level jet (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb). 
Tornadic potential probably will maximize during the mid to late
evening, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one
or more clusters, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by
strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across north
central/northeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of the Great
Plains.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region. 

Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.

..Moore.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and
wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains
and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and
strong tornadoes will be possible.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern
Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At
the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the
approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the
southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into
the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong
destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into
Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward
this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will
increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence
will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These
two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this
afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move
southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon
and evening.

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma
to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into
the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8
C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for
the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells
with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will
be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30
knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north
Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong
low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear
will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early
this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the
low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400
m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with
the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop
with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much
of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward
toward the Ark-La-Tex.

...Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central
Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the
east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from
central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of
the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level
convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As
instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area
by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage
threat.

...Central and Southwest Texas...
A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today.
Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level
convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although
large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could
develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support an
isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/25/2026