SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered over northern Mexico and West Texas
will remain in place today as a mid-level shortwave trough moves
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface,
strong high pressure will shift southeastward from the northern
Great Plains into the Midwest while a cold front progresses
southward across the southern Great Plains and Southeast.

...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into western OK and far south-central
KS...
Broad north-northeasterly post-frontal flow amid a dry air mass will
encompass portions of the central/southern Great Plains today. While
the latest guidance indicates RH values will remain more marginal
(20-25%), receptive fuels, sustained northeasterly surface winds of
20-25 mph, and the potential for occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph
(locally higher) should support a period of critical fire weather
concerns from the eastern TX/OK Panhandles into far south-central
Kansas. 

Farther northeast, minimum RH values are forecast to range from
20-30% across much of central/eastern Kansas northward into eastern
Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri. Coupled with
receptive fuels and sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon, with the exception being across areas that saw
appreciable rainfall Thursday evening.

...Eastern Arizona into Southwestern New Mexico...
A backdoor cold front will progress south-southwestward through
portions of the Southwest today. Dry and breezy conditions are
forecast in the wake of this front, with the latest guidance
depicting a corridor of 15-25 mph sustained southeasterly surface
winds overlapping low RH around 20%. These conditions atop receptive
fuels are expected to promote a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon, particularly in the vicinity of the White
Mountains and Gila Region.

..Chalmers.. 03/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 27 06:23:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 27 06:23:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong cold front currently pushing southward across the Plains
and OH Valley is forecast to reach central to southern Florida by
Saturday afternoon. Continued displacement from the primary synoptic
low and upper wave to the northeast will lead to a gradual abatement
of frontal advancement and the onset of frontolysis through the day.
Despite diminishing low-level forcing for ascent, event modest lift
within an unstable and weakly capped environment will likely support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by peak heating into
early evening. Very weak winds (less than 20 knots) through much of
the column will limit storm organization and the potential for
severe convection. Elsewhere across the country, dry and stable
conditions in the wake of the frontal passage will limit
thunderstorm potential.

..Moore.. 03/27/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from the Ohio Valley into
North Carolina and Virginia but no severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the eastern U.S.
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Behind the front, isolated
thunderstorm development with a potential for a few strong gusts,
will be possible in weak instability this afternoon. Elsewhere
across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today or
tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/27/2026