SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Florida Peninsula...
Westerly flow south of a cold front over the northern Gulf Coast and
northern FL, will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the
central FL Peninsula Friday. Sufficient boundary layer mixing
despite the presence of a few clouds should support minimum RH of
30-35% (locally 25%) in most inland locations in central/eastern FL,
where temperatures reach into the lower 90s. West winds of around 10
mph combined with low RH and dry, receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will generate elevated fire weather conditions,
where Elevated Highlights have been slightly expanded based on
latest forecast guidance.

..Williams.. 04/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/

...Synopsis...
A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a
closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying
upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and
amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast
region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the
southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief
to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions
across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns
where drought-stressed fuels exist. 

...Central Florida...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady
westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will
pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula.
In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud
cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon.
However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing
into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak
heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 30 19:25:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 30 19:25:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of
South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern
Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon
through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the U.S. east
of the Continental Divide on Friday. A shortwave trough will dig
through the central Plains into the Southeast through the period.
Within the subtropical jet, another shortwave trough will begin the
day in the Trans-Pecos and move eastward roughly along the Gulf
Coast. These two features will eventually phase by late afternoon
into the evening. The mid-level jet will increase in intensity in
response. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be positioned from
South Texas and eastward along the Gulf Coast. As the southern
stream trough progresses east, a weak frontal low will develop and
perhaps allow some inland advancement of upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints.

...South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
Rich moisture will exist south of the surface boundary. Southward
progression of the boundary will determine how much risk of
surface-based convection there will be. Given the amount of
precipitation north of the front, there may be a tendency for most
storms to be undercut except closer to the coast. With 60+ kts of
effective shear, supercells will be possible despite modest
buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates. Where storms can remain surface
based, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Large
hail could occur even with storms that become slightly elevated.

...Southeast Louisiana into Florida Panhandle...
Severe potential along the central/eastern Gulf coast hinges on the
degree of inland moisture advancement. The expectation is for
low-level warm advection to increase with time and eastward extent.
This would suggest slightly higher confidence of
near-surface/surface-based storms in parts of the Florida Panhandle
to the Apalachicola vicinity. A mix of linear and supercell
structures appears possible. Damaging winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is more conditional,
but nonzero. This threat would be maximized with any discrete storms
that develop and move inland.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301700Z - 011200Z

No changes to the previous outlook. A weak but consistent westerly
wind, south of nearly stationary frontal boundary draped over
northern FL, will continue across the FL Peninsula through today. A
subtle thermal trough will evolve across the FL Peninsula today,
resulting in a relative temperature maximum across east-central FL.
High temperatures in the lower 90s under partly cloudy skies should
support minimum RH reductions in the 30-35% range today. Coupled
with west winds of around 10 mph amid drought affected and receptive
fuels, an elevated fire weather threat exists across the central and
eastern portions of the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary
frontal boundary will remain across northern FL through today. A few
lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds, potentially impacting
existing wildfires, will be the primary concern.

..Williams.. 04/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a
robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending
into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport
will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather
threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad
upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored
by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the
Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected
to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation
chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain.
Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm,
dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge
amid a very dry fuelscape. 

...Central Florida...
Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much
of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving,
quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and
northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary,
mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning
ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall,
and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could
further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an
Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10
mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought
stressed fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of
southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.

...Texas...
A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late
this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and
southwest TX by daybreak Friday.  Strong westerly mid to high-level
flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states.  Surface
analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX
eastward across coastal LA and into north FL.  Widespread cloud
cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite
a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across
northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande.  A
couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early
afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD
#627 for short-term details).  Farther west, ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms
developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional
activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop. 
Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated.  

...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north.  Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon.  Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 04/30/2026