SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low will move across far northern New England this
evening, as northwest flow remains in place from the Appalachians
northwestward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold
front will move southward across the central and southern Plains
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Over almost the entire nation, a
relatively dry airmass will be in place, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development through daybreak on Friday.

..Broyles.. 12/12/2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West
this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are
likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over
the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet
along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on
the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower
and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next
week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and
portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period. 

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New
Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching
cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions
of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into
portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of
central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels
in these areas. 

As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies
Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather
conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will
increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple
days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain
uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time.
However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical
conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on
portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High
Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South
Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes
through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are
likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the
Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited
overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were
included.

..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...