Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over the CONUS through early next week. The combination of an enhanced area of zonal mid-level flow over the Rockies on Day 3/Thursday coupled with a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains will encourage development of a weak lee surface low. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward, reaching the Southern Plains Day 5/Saturday and the Southeast Day 6/Sunday. Another substantial mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore across the Western U.S. late this weekend into early next week. ...Southern High Plains: Day 3/Thursday... Gusty and dry westerly downslope surface winds are expected to develop Day 3/Thursday afternoon across portions of New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. At least a few hours of Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions appear likely amidst critically receptive fuels before a cold front (and associated northerly wind shift) move through the area during the overnight. ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas: Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 5/Saturday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains. While some uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day 2/Wednesday and also Day 5/Saturday and its impact on fuel status, ensemble guidance continues to suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where locally Critical conditions currently appear most likely. Fire weather concerns may linger into Day 6/Sunday, though confidence is currently too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southwest and the Southern/Central High Plains: Day 6/Sunday - Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southwest Day 6/Sunday and the High Plains Day 7/Monday into early next week as the aforementioned secondary trough (and enhanced mid-level flow) overspread the area and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. While fire weather highlights may eventually be needed, increasing model spread reduces confidence which precludes introducing Critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
