No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 5 13:08:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 5 13:08:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough
progressing east across the Southeast while a ridge resides over the
Interior West.  A cold front will continue to push southeast across
the FL Peninsula today with cool/stable conditions accompanying high
pressure across the Southeast.  Tranquil conditions will prevail
across the Lower 48 states.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/05/2026

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern
Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave
and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While
thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of
this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf
moisture will limit appreciable severe potential -- especially given
modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough. 

In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to
consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the
West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer
moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in
the extended forecast period.