MD 0044 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 241634Z - 242030Z

SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand
from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The
precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any
12Z guidance and it continues to expand. This area of showers is
mostly sleet thus far, but KTLX CC and the 12Z OUN RAOB would imply
it will become mostly snow as it approaches I-40 across central
Oklahoma. 

Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snowfall
accumulation of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour are possible within the
heavier showers/bands from Northwest Texas into central Oklahoma
through mid-afternoon. 

Expect this area of precipitation to weaken as it moves farther
northeast during the afternoon. This will likely result in more
scattered precipitation coverage across this region for a few hours
during the late afternoon before precipitation rapidly expands this
evening ahead of the approaching main trough.

..Bentley.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32490119 32610154 33220201 34030195 34640135 35719819
            35709619 35059591 33939704 32969906 32480056 32490119

MD 0043 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...WESTERN MS


Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western
MS

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 241453Z - 242000Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to
persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early
afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to
quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch
per hour.

DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is
ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations
confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up
to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating
this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon,
gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level
warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding
was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should
continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east,
the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across
western MS into the early afternoon.

..Grams.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31729303 31419426 31579489 31919514 32729473 33429402
            33959252 34529126 34619041 33938962 33408970 33009011
            32379116 31729303

MD 0042 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST OK


Mesoscale Discussion 0042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwest OK

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 241347Z - 241645Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of winter mixed precipitation (mostly
sleet) is possible from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Deepening ascent is evident on satellite imagery from
far west TX into northwest TX, downstream of a subtle shortwave
trough moving through the southwesterly flow aloft well ahead of the
upper low off the central Baja California coast. This deepening
ascent has resulting in an expanding area of light to moderate
precipitation now moving into northwest TX. Surface temperatures in
this region are well-below freezing (i.e. lower teens to single
digits), but forecast sounding still show a substantial warm nose.
This profile appears to favor sleet, although some snow could be
mixed in a well. As a result, mixed winter precipitation is
anticipated from northwest TX into southwest TX over the next few
hours. Precipitation rates will generally be light, but modestly
steep lapse rates above the warm nose suggest some embedded moderate
rates are possible.

..Mosier.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   32889896 32979985 33350059 33870119 34630112 35010059
            35140013 35189924 34979859 34799814 34459781 34089767
            33379798 33019856 32889896

MD 0041 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI


Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Western and Middle
Tennessee...Far Northern Alabama...Far Northern Mississippi

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 241154Z - 241800Z

SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation is expected this morning
from the Mid-South northeastward into Tennessee and southern
Kentucky, where snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this
morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southeastern
U.S. shows a large area of precipitation from Arkansas extending
eastward to the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is being
supported by strong lift associated with the right entrance region
of an expansive mid-level jet, and by ascent due to a 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The nose of
the low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the Mid-South
and Tennessee Valley this morning, contributing to the maintenance
of widespread precipitation. RAP forecast soundings across the
region have a warm nose from 900 to 700 mb, where temperatures are
forecast to gradually warm to near 0 C after daybreak this morning.
This will result in a wintry mix of precipitation. Snow may continue
in parts of southern Kentucky through midday. However, further south
into western and middle Tennessee, a transition to sleet and
freezing rain will be likely. In far northern Mississippi and far
northern Alabama, the predominant precipitation type will be
freezing rain.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   34218753 34058865 34038945 34049004 34139036 34289047
            34779050 35858990 36778909 37238805 37328683 37228592
            36928511 36488459 35628468 35068514 34588614 34228742
            34218753

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing.  As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL.  This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear.  Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z.  Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today due to
widespread cold and wet conditions across much of the CONUS. Please
see the previous discussion below for additional information on
today's fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 01/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad
mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring
several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the
Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in
place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet
conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of
fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just
off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the
southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream
southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward. 

A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward
across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the
upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the
region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward,
resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast
soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential
for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest
thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but
low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles
will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet. 

The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the
day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early
tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward
progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front.
This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX
quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern
LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level
southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated
surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to
rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central
AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for
surface-based convection.

General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to
support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after
06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest
buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated
elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes
areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where
surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some
lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation.

...Southwest...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central
CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined
with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few
isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest
NM from the late afternoon through tonight.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026