SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 081700Z - 091200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Surface high pressure
across the Intermountain West will continue to promote dry, offshore
flow across southern CA today. Farther east, dry and relative mild
conditions under a building ridge aloft will encompass much of the
lower CO River Basin and southern High Plains although winds will
remain light. Fuels across CONUS are largely not conducive for
significant wildfire spread, mitigating impacts from locally
dry/breezy conditions.

..Williams.. 12/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the
influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high
pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a
trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions
will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative
humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns
low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 8 16:42:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 8 16:42:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of
shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central
Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and
central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair
of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift
eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low,
currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses
northeastward. 

A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface
low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire
CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL
preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis
indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the
front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be
displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening.
Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a
very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However,  
limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall
severe potential.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 12/08/2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded
shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to
coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south
across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier
convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of
thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence
with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this
region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates,
should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or
two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025