SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a large scale upper-level
troughing pattern should hold across the eastern U.S. through the
middle of next week. This should facilitate a mostly stable and
colder air mass across much of the eastern U.S., limiting the fire
weather threat. A mid-level jet and associated ascent in addition to
a frontal boundary meandering near the Gulf Coast should bring
several rounds of rain to much of the Deep South and Piedmont
regions, where severe/extreme drought lingers in portions of
southern GA/northern FL. Farther west, model guidance shows a
gradually expanding upper-level ridge across building into CA and
Desert Southwest through the weekend, allowing dry conditions and
above normal temperatures to develop. A short wave within the
broader northwest flow aloft translates southeastward into the
central/southern Rockies on Day 4/Saturday while a lee cyclone
evolves across the central/southern High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions should develop across eastern NM and West TX on Day
4/Saturday but antecedent precipitation tonight into Day 2/Thursday,
including accumulating snowfall, should mitigate fire weather
impacts overall into the weekend. The Southern Plains will remain
the focus for fire weather concerns on Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday
with potential lee cyclone/trough development along the
central/southern High Plains under robust northwest flow aloft.
However, uncertainty in fuels precludes introducing critical
probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 12/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible along the upper Texas Gulf Coast
into the Sabine Valley. Marginally severe hail could occur.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are necessary. See the previous discussion
for additional details.

..Wendt.. 12/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of
mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains
through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow
will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches,
which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km)
lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast
region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off
the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward
towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave
increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and
steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX
Coastal Plain and central to southern LA. 

...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection
atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is
that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast
period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection.
However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will
likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast
where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy
profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic
environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and
effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm
interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any
particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic
environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of
small to severe hail.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire
weather concerns across the contiguous U.S. An ongoing offshore wind
event from the east-northeast will begin to wane Thursday afternoon
across southern CA as surface pressure gradients relax throughout
the day. Existing marginal fuel conditions should reduce wildfire
spread potential, limiting impacts from the dry and locally breezy
winds.

..Williams.. 12/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will favor another
day of locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southern
CA. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible,
marginal fuels should limit most concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Friday or Friday night.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday along the western and central Gulf Coast, within a broad
swath of low-level isentropic ascent atop a slow-moving offshore
surface front. This will spread east during the day across parts of
the Southeast. Some of the non-CAM guidance suggest the front may
penetrate inland in a portion of the FL Panhandle attendant to a
decaying weak surface low. With the synoptic pattern favoring a
broad/low-amplitude trough into the south-central states,
large-scale ascent and mid-level lapse rates should remain weak,
compounding uncertainty in how much surface-based destabilization
can occur with any afternoon convection. The bulk of ML guidance
outside of the SPC-CSU indicates less than 5 percent severe probs as
well. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential
mesoscale level 1-MRGL risk.

..Grams.. 12/03/2025