
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern over the next eight days will generally feature a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This pattern will favor repeated cold fronts pushing into areas east of the Divide. Precipitation will largely miss much of the Great Basin/Southwest/southern High Plains. The southern Plains will be the primary focus for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels that exist within the region. The level of risk will depend on the timing of the frontal passages as well as the strength of the cold air mass pushing southward. Predictability is low during this extended period due to some of those uncertainties. ...Southern Plains... After a recent cold air intrusion, temperatures should warm slightly for Thursday in advance of another cold front. On Friday, a stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains during the afternoon. A cold front will move through Oklahoma/North Texas during early Friday morning. In its wake, temperatures will be cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. That being said, strong northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) and generally clear skies should promote boundary layer mixing with 15-25% possible. Fuel receptiveness is high across the region. Elevated to perhaps localized critical conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 01/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida coast late in the period. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to remove thunder from the southeastern Florida coast to account for recent trends. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/14/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS. This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS, as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday. ...Discussion... An expansive midlevel trough will encompass the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. This pattern will result in cool/dry/stable conditions, and therefore, no thunderstorms are expected. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast given the latest model guidance and fuel information. The forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 01/14/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/ ...Synopsis... As the initial upper trough over the East moves offshore, flow aloft will turn more northwesterly ahead of a second potent upper trough moving south out of Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday. ...Central and southern High Plains... Ahead of the second shortwave, lee troughing will promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High Plains Thursday. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold front, bolstered by downsloping, afternoon RH values of 15-20% are expected. Surface winds of 20-30 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels over parts of Northeast CO, western NE and northwestern KS. A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also possible across the region Thursday afternoon. While the strongest gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity, and some light precipitation is also expected D1/Wednesday potentially briefly limiting the driest fuels. Still with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther south, a similar, albeit slightly weaker, northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM. Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below 20%. With dry fuels in place, several hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. ...Southeast... Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the wake of the strong frontal passage. While afternoon RH values will likely be below 25%, much cooler surface temperatures and light precipitation are also expected. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more