MD 1817 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO


Mesoscale Discussion 1817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011857Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage will increase through the
afternoon. A few storms could produce strong outflow wind gusts or
marginal hail. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
the 80s to low 90s across lower elevated in central/eastern NM early
this afternoon. Coupled with steep mid and low-level lapse rates,
modest destabilization has occurred, while inhibition continues to
erode. Low-level winds have largely become east/southeasterly in the
post-frontal upslope flow regime. This is resulting in initial early
afternoon convection over higher terrain. Moderate northerly flow
aloft is supporting in sufficient vertical shear for loosely
organized cells. 

This initial activity may be capable of small/marginally severe
hail, particularly across the northern half of the MCD area where
midlevel temperatures are cooler through the bulk of the elevated
instability layer. As storms track south with time across the hotter
and steep low-level lapse rates environment in lower elevations,
sporadic strong outflow gusts will be possible. Given the overall
marginal parameter space and transient nature of any stronger
updrafts, a watch is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   36410520 36720430 36640394 36020363 35190362 34570365
            33800369 32720424 32260471 31980601 31980737 32020812
            32220833 32740848 34720728 35230678 36410520 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

MD 1816 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE


Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana and Ohio into central
Kentucky and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011731Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a
cold front and surface cyclone this afternoon across the OH/TN
Valleys. A mixed mode of clusters and supercell structures could
pose a risk for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. A WW is
possible, but uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC visible and radar imagery showed showers
and incipient thunderstorms intensifying along a broad frontal zone
over the lower OH valley. Diffuse heating amid lingering clouds
ahead of the front and occluded surface cyclone have raised surface
temperatures into upper 70s to low 80s F in a very moist surface air
mass. While overall lapse rate profiles are modest, the heating and
weak ascent from the associate upper low overspreading the area is
supporting continuing destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg expected. Storm coverage is forecast to increase from
IN, southward across KY and into parts of OH and middle TN this
afternoon.

A belt of stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting 30-35 kt of
effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature evident on
area VADs. This suggests a mix of organized multicells and transient
supercell structures is likely. The high PWATs will favor
water-loading of the downdrafts and some damaging gusts potential,
especially for cells that can cluster.

The tornado risk is less clear, but focused low-level buoyancy,
plentiful ambient vertical vorticity and 0-500m SRH of 75-150 m2/s2
could support a couple of tornadoes with any potential supercells.
This could be locally focused where the most robust surface heating
is occurring, and where low-level flow remains backed along portions
of the OH river in southern IN northern KY and southwest OH.

Given the expected increase in thunderstorms with some risk for
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes, a WW is being considered.
However, the lingering cloud cover and nebulous forcing lend low
confidence on timing and where the greatest threat may occur.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   36858729 37988686 39268683 39898709 40288654 40148524
            39888472 39588406 39168359 38728340 37508392 36758446
            36118485 35668535 35308604 35128680 35078728 35308773
            35548775 36858729 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER 
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday
afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across
parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday
night.

...Synopsis...
Weak troughing will bring modest flow and broad ascent across much
of the eastern US. Enhanced westerly flow will overspread the
northern periphery of the western ridge across the Northern Rockies
as a more progressive mid-level low moves across the Canadian
Prairies. 

At the surface, an occluding surface low will shift northeast across
the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, with a trailing cold front
slowly shifting east across the Ohio Valley into the Gulf States. A
cold front will shift across portions of the Northern Rockies into
the northern Plains.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
Broad forcing for ascent within the region of the eastward sagging
cold front will produce widely scattered thunderstorm activity
across much of the region from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast.
Activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the
northern Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Broken mid-level cloud
cover behind the morning convection should allow for sufficient
heating/destabilization and moderate instability ahead of the cold
front by the afternoon. This in combination with deep layer shear
around 25-35 kts will support isolated strong storms capable of
damaging wind where better heating can occur. 

...Northern Plains...
A conditional severe threat will extend across potions of North
Dakota into northern Minnesota. Within this region, the environment
will be favorable for severe storms, with moderate to strong
instability and strong deep layer shear. However, weak forcing for
ascent and strong capping at the base of the EML during the daytime
heating period may limit development until mid-level cooling and
ascent from the upper wave moves in late. Nonetheless, should a cell
or two develop the environment would support potential for large
hail and damaging wind. It appears most likely that convection
develops along the cold front toward the end of the D2 period, with
potential for large hail and damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 08/01/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN OREGON AND FAR WESTERN
IDAHO INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN OF
EASTERN IDAHO...

***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across
central/southeastern Washington and northern Oregon today.***

...Inland Northwest into western and central Montana...
No changes have been made to the highlights across this region.
Surface winds at 16Z have already increased to 15-25 mph with gusts
near 30 mph across portions of the Columbia Basin and north-central
Oregon, several hours ahead of the expected afternoon maximum. Along
the Rocky Mountain Front, west winds of 30-45 mph with gusts to 60
mph (locally near 75 mph) are expected to develop this evening and
peak between 9 PM and 6 AM MDT as mountain wave activity
strengthens. Fire weather concerns should continue through the night
into Sunday morning due to lingering breezy conditions coupled with
poor overnight RH recoveries. 

...Eastern Idaho...
Critical fire weather highlights have been expanded across the Snake
River Plain and the adjacent central Idaho mountains. While there
had been some uncertainty regarding recent rainfall and its impact
on fuels, observations suggest rainfall across eastern Idaho was
generally less than 0.10 inches and was associated with dry
thunderstorms (several of which produced ignitions that remain
active). West to southwest surface winds will increase to near 20
mph (gusts to 30 mph) this afternoon, amid minimum RH reductions of
near 10-15%, supporting the Critical expansion. The lowest RH is
expected across the Upper Snake River Valley and the Lemhi and Lost
River ranges, where single digits may persist for several hours.  

...Eastern Montana...
Elevated highlights have been expanded east across northeast
Montana. Very hot afternoon temperatures near 100 F will support
minimum RH reductions near 15-20%, with the lowest values over the
western portions of the area and higher RH farther east (where fuels
are also less receptive). While surface winds should remain modest
through the afternoon (generally 10-15 mph), northwesterly winds
will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph behind the front
late tonight, with poor overnight RH recovery. 

Widespread wildfire smoke continues across eastern Oregon, eastern
Washington, and central and western Idaho. 

Please see the previous discussion below for more information.

..Elliott.. 08/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across
central/southeastern Washington and northern Oregon today.***

Upper-level ridging will remain in place from the Desert Southwest
into the northern High Plains today as a potent upper-level trough
moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.
Simultaneously, a surface low will amplify across southern Alberta
as a dry cold front progresses rapidly east-southeastward through
the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. This setup will foster
widespread elevated to critical fire weather concerns across an
expansive area of the eastern Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies,
and northern Great Basin, with extremely critical conditions
forecast for portions of the Columbia Basin in central/southeastern
Washington and northern Oregon.

...Central/southeastern Washington into northern Oregon...
As the aforementioned upper trough begins to move onshore across the
Pacific Northwest, southwesterly surface winds will begin to
increase ahead of the approaching dry cold front, likely
accelerating to 20-25 mph as RH begins to decline. The cold front is
then expected to move through the region by late morning/early
afternoon, with an accompanying wind shift to broadly westerly (and
perhaps to west-northwesterly later in the evening). Concurrently,
stronger mid-level flow (35-45 kt at 700 mb) will overspread the
region and gradually attain a more perpendicular orientation
relative to the Cascades. In conjunction with a tightening surface
pressure gradient, this will foster a favorable environment for very
strong, dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades, with
sustained westerly winds increasing to 30+ mph (strongest in the lee
of the immediate foothills and in favored terrain/gap flow areas),
gusts increasing to 40-50+ mph, and RH falling to 5-15%. 

ERCs are commonly approaching or exceeding the 95th percentile, and
a few large wildfires are already ongoing across this region. This
combination of meteorological and fuel conditions will support
extremely critical fire weather conditions (with winds potentially
exceeding 25+ mph for up to 6 hours in some locations) across
portions of the Columbia Basin in central/southeastern Washington
and northern Oregon this afternoon and evening. While eventual RH
increases are expected later tonight, a longer duration of elevated
wind conditions (15+ mph) is also forecast, potentially lasting
12-14 hours for some locations. Only a minor expansion of the
northwestern edge of the extremely critical area was made with this
outlook cycle.

A broader area of elevated to critical fire weather conditions is
forecast farther south from northeastern California and northern
Nevada into much of central/eastern Oregon and western Idaho. Across
this region, sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph are expected to
overlap very low RH of 5-20% and ERCs above the 90th to 98th
percentiles.

...Northwestern and north-central Montana...
As the upper trough transitions eastward through the day,
strengthening mid-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies,
with a 55-65+ kt 700 mb jet emerging along the Rocky Mountain front
of northern/central Montana. This will favor strong, westerly
downslope winds of up to 30+ mph (and gusts of 50+) beginning during
the afternoon (21-00 UTC) and persisting through the overnight
hours. RH values will initially range from 10-20% in the afternoon
and increase to 20-35% overnight amid ERCs at the 99th percentile,
supporting critical to potentially locally extremely critical fire
weather conditions across portions of northwestern and north-central
Montana.

During the afternoon, southwesterly surface winds of 10-15 mph and
RH values of 10-15% will also promote elevated fire weather concerns
across much of central Montana. While RH will increase to 15-25%
overnight, a stronger northwesterly surge (15-25 mph sustained with
gusts to 30-40+ mph) will accompany the passage of the cold front
during the overnight hours.

...Central Idaho into the Snake River Plain...
Ahead of the cold frontal passage, southwesterly surface winds will
strengthen to 15-20 mph (locally stronger) amid very low RH around
10%. While recent rainfall across eastern Idaho precludes the
expansion of Critical highlights, these conditions are expected to
support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns this
afternoon across central Idaho and the Snake River Plain. In
addition, this will likely serve as a preconditioning-style event
leading into expansive critical fire weather concerns on D2/Sunday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and Far West
Texas.

..OH and TN Valleys...
Recent satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough
moving through the Mid MS Valley. Surface analysis shows an occluded
surface low over central IL beneath the shortwave. Expectation is
for this cyclone to drift slowly east-southeastward throughout the
day, with the surface low gradually filling. As this low fills, the
triple point low, currently near the IL/IN/KY border intersection,
will become more prominent through the afternoon before it too
occludes.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from eastern
IN/western OH through eastern TN into AL, along the eastern
periphery of an arcing warm conveyor. These showers and
thunderstorms should continue northeastward/eastward as the entire
system drifts east-southeastward, with some modest moisture
advection anticipated throughout the warm sector. This should allow
the warm sector to at least moderately destabilize, but persistent
cloudiness will limit heating, likely tempering the overall
buoyancy. Expectation is for more modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
around 500 to 1000 J/kg) across IN and OH, with greater buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) farther south across central KY and
Middle TN. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead
of the cold front as it moves through this destabilized and buoyant
airmass.

Moderate mid-level flow throughout the base of the Mid MS Valley
shortwave trough will spread eastward across KY and TN, supporting
effective shear around 30 to 35 kt across KY. Reduced vertical shear
is expected farther north across the OH Valley (due to weaker
mid-level flow) and farther south across TN Valley (due to more
westerly low-level flow). Given these kinematic conditions, a
predominantly multicellular mode is favored, although a few
supercells appear possible from southeast IN/southwest OH through
central KY. Damaging wind gusts will be the most prominent hazard,
but a tornado or two is also possible, particularly within the
corridor from far southeast IN through far north-central KY and far
southwest OH. Here, some modestly increased low-level shear is
possible near the triple point low as it moves through.

...Eastern AZ through NM into west TX...
Moderate mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain from western AZ through
central/northeast NM. Relatively strong northerly winds aloft will
aid storm organization/clustering as storms spread
south-southeastward into the deeply mixed boundary-layer across the
lower elevations. Outflow-dominant storm structures will result in
strong cold pools capable of isolated strong to severe wind gusts.
Resulting forward-propagating lines could reach as far
south/southeast as Far West TX by later this evening.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/01/2026