
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances. Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the East Coast from the Northeast to Florida on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A strong upper-level low will move from the Great Lakes to southern Quebec on Wednesday. At the surface, a strong surface low will move slowly east from Lake Superior to western Quebec. A cold front will extend along the spine of the Appalachians Wednesday morning and move into the western Atlantic by Wednesday evening. Ahead of the cold front, weak instability is forecast from southeast Georgia to eastern North Carolina. This may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms, but weak instability should limit the overall intensity of these storms. Additional lightning flashes are possible beneath the cold upper-level temperatures across the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 11/24/2025Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Deep South... A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day, despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast. Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night. However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 11/24/2025Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will continue to be limited for Tuesday despite widespread strong winds across the Plains. A surface cyclone is forecast to develop today across the northern High Plains followed by a period of steady intensification through Tuesday evening as it shifts into the upper MS Valley/Midwest. Strong northwesterly winds are expected to spread across much of the central Plains behind an attendant cold front. Latest forecast guidance suggests widespread winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35 mph) are likely; however, an influx of continental air should modulate RH reductions for most locations. Furthermore, the spatial extent of dry fuels across NE into KS (where winds should be strongest) appears limited due to rainfall over the past 72 hours. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and sporadic large hail. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35 corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of moisture overnight across MS. ...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss... Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail at times. To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis. Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z. Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as mid/upper lapse rates will become steep. At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025Read more