MD 0518 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF LOWER MI...EASTERN/CENTRAL IN...AND WESTERN OH


Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...Parts of lower MI...eastern/central IN...and
western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241822Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of producing locally damaging
wind gusts are possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is moving eastward
across parts of central lower MI, where subtle midlevel height falls
are occurring ahead of a midlevel trough approaching from the west.
While poor midlevel lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture
(middle 50s dewpoints) are limiting buoyancy ahead of these storms,
around 35 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly flow preceding the
trough and steepening low-level lapse rates could support a couple
strong/loosely organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging
wind gusts. While large-scale forcing for ascent decreases with
southward extent, a similar environment may support a couple strong
storms with an attendant risk of locally damaging gusts across
central/eastern IN into western OH as well.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   39178462 38798511 38548578 38678644 38958659 39448652
            40118607 40918553 41568526 42518522 43288508 44158492
            44318462 44328418 44068330 43798302 42778293 41348330
            40448377 39178462 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKLATEX


Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 241820Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of the ArkLaTex this
afternoon. Timing of development is not certain, but a supercell or
two would be possible. Large/very-large hail and tornadoes are the
main hazards.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in southeast Oklahoma
into the ArkLaTex. Temperatures are just now reaching the mid/upper
70s F in this region which may mean robust development will take
another hour or two. The environment is becoming increasingly
favorable for severe convection, however. 35-40 kts of shear and
MLCAPE reaching 2000-2500 J/kg will promote supercells capable of
large/very-large hail and tornadoes. As low-level winds are expected
to remain rather modest, the tornado threat will depend on a
right-moving supercell (motion that would maximize warm-sector
residence time) interacting with backed surface flow near the
outflow boundary. Storms that cannot root in the warm sector will
tend to move more east/east-northeast into the cooler air. The
tornado threat would be less, but the hail concern would remain.

..Wendt.. 04/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32939426 33299495 34199562 34619555 34649495 34259436
            33709410 33069403 32929405 32939426 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

WW 0141 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0141 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 141 TORNADO AR OK TX 241855Z - 250200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Arkansas
  Southern and Eastern Oklahoma
  North and Northeast Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense storm development including supercells is
anticipated through mid/late afternoon across the region, especially
in vicinity of a front and modifying outflow boundary, and perhaps
near/just of a dryline across north Texas. Very large hail is
possible, along with a tornado risk, with damaging winds also
expected to increase by early evening in anticipation of storms
clustering/organizing as they move southeastward toward and across
the ArkLaTex.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Chickasha OK to 25
miles north northeast of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.

...Guyer

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts
of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily
Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue
to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the
western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough
initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward
toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern
Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment
across the south-central Plains by afternoon. 

At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across
the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending
southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX.
An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend
east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary
is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across
parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region.  

...Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex...
Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will
result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the
dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of
diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least
isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool
side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the
approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the
stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be
somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually
develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in
coverage into the evening. 

Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will
generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near
the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater
tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an
organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and
potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability
gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing
damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to
pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening.  

Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain,
since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent.
However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated
supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very
large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk. 

Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from
central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and
deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward
extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could
support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with
the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. 

...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the
afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia,
near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles
will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized
storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the
primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from
late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to
expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better
resolved.

..Dean.. 04/24/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex
region.

...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.

The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
spreads east-southeastward.

Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the
southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...
A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the
south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of
eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon. 

Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.

Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this
afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
localized severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move
northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.

...Western Nebraska...
A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/24/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
No changes to Critical highlights were made across CO. Poor
overnight relative humidity recoveries were noted in surface
observations across the central and southern High Plains, even more
so across the central and southeastern NM where RH failed to reach
25%. A lee surface cyclone across eastern CO and southward extending
trough into the central High Plains, coupled with modest deep layer
westerly flow will contribute to dry and breezy conditions through
the afternoon. Downslope drying and enhanced winds from the west and
southwest of 15-25 mph are likely across the central and southern
High Plains, with the driest boundary layer conditions during peak
heating across eastern CO where single digit RH values are likely.
These atmospheric conditions combined with very dry fuels will bring
critical fire weather conditions to portions of central and much of
eastern CO today. Locally critical thresholds are possible (20 mph
west winds and RH of 10-15%) in favored terrain gaps and in the
immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains
across eastern NM.

A slight westward extension of broader Elevated highlights across
much of the Southwest was incorporated into portions of the Grand
Canyon and AZ Strip areas. Above average ERC values remain across
the northwestern AZ, with several days of drying contributing to
increased fuel receptivity. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
relative humidity in the 15-20% range will bring an elevated fire
weather threat to the area this afternoon.

See previous discussion for additional forecast details.

..Williams.. 04/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.

...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.

While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
percentile.

...Carolinas...
As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
primed.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...