SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

...Days 3-6/Monday-Thursday...
A mid-level wave and attendant surface trough/frontal features will
support showers and thunderstorms across the southern/central Plains
on Day 3/Monday, with precipitation expanding and moving into the
lower MS River Valley and OH River Valley by Day 4/Tuesday. A strong
cold front extending southwestward from a deepening surface low in
the Upper Midwest should sweep across much of the eastern U.S.
midweek, reaching the Atlantic Coast late Day 5/Wednesday period. A
dry, post-frontal flow regime could overlap with pockets of dry
fuels across southern GA, northern FL and the Carolinas on Day
6/Thursday, but some preceding rainfall associated with the frontal
passage should mitigate a more significant fire weather threat
across the Southeast. The lower confidence in spatial distribution
of expected rainfall and marginal fuel environment precludes
introduction of critical probabilities at this time. 

...Days 6-8/Friday-Saturday...
A descending upper-level trough into the western U.S. and subsequent
lee cyclogenesis across the central/southern Plains could provide a
supportive environment for elevated winds and dry conditions across
the southern High Plains closer to Day 8/Saturday. However,
uncertainty in state of fuels from preceding rainfall through the
Day 2-3/Sunday-Monday period reduces predictability of critical fire
weather conditions late next week.

..Williams.. 11/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast thinking remains the same, and no changes were
warranted with this update. See the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 11/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025/

...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal to
no overlap of dry/breezy conditions and receptive fuels supportive
of rapid fire spread expected across the contiguous U.S. Please see
previous discussion.

..Williams.. 11/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025/

...Synopsis...
There are no fire-weather concerns anticipated for Sunday. A
progressive trough will bring precipitation from the southern
Rockies into the southern Great Plains, while the rest of the
Continental U.S. will experience cooler temperatures and weak
surface winds, limiting the potential for wildfire ignition and
spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will
move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave
digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.
While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced
upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e
advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central
States through the period.

...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from
central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing
surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast
with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based
instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While
low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe
potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing
early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb
southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative
supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and
embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward. 

Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across
east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level
winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east.
Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist
across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged
low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the
surface-based instability plume.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025