MD 0024 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA/NY


Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern OH and western PA/NY

Concerning...Snow Squall 

Valid 171600Z - 172000Z

SUMMARY...Snow squalls are likely to accompany a cold front pushing
east across eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania and
New York through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has recently increased along a
cold front progressing through north-central/northeast into central
Ohio. Both KLPR and KOSU sampled a visibility reduction to
quarter-mile with gusts of 30 and 31 kts respectively, and KMFD
recently dropped to quarter mile as well. The more organized portion
of the snow squalls will probably be confined closer to Lake Erie,
where stronger low-level convergence is anticipated. Steep low-level
lapse rates along/ahead of the front are the primary driver of a
favorable thermodynamic environment with SPC Mesoscale Analysis
estimates of a 2-4 Snow Squall Parameter. This is expected to shift
east with the front, favoring snow squall production throughout the
afternoon.

..Grams.. 01/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41518163 42288020 42907905 43077855 42927810 42427808
            41677831 41237869 40577952 40168084 39988148 39978212
            40218248 41518163

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday
with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air
mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward
across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features
will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday,
and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform
precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However,
negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest
low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the
southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm
advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm
motions should further limit the duration of convection over land.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...Central and Southern Texas...
Very dry, post-frontal flow from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph
(locally 20 mph) will continue across much central/southern Texas
through this evening. Despite the cooler temperatures ranging from
the upper 40s to upper 50s, surface dewpoints in the 0-10F range
should yield very low relative humidity below 10% across southern TX
by peak afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. These conditions
aligned with receptive and drought stressed fuels will promote at
least elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and
southern TX through today. A locally critical fire weather threat
still exists where winds of 20 mph materialize. A slight expansion
of the Elevated highlights was necessary owing to current surface
observations and short term model trends.

...West-Central High Plains...
Sustained north-northwest winds of 25-35 mph with localized gusts to
50-55 mph this morning should gradually diminish today across
southeastern WY, eastern CO, the NE Panhandle and western Kansas.
Although the gusty winds will align with minimum relative humidity
of 10-20% this afternoon, cold temperatures with highs in the 20s to
low 30s should inhibit ignitions across an otherwise receptive
fuelscape.

..Williams.. 01/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated
by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily
characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface
pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great
Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures,
some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon
over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. 

...Central and Southern Texas...
Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by
early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are
expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central
TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15%
will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for
ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting
to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions,
Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical
conditions possible with the most intense surface winds.

...West-Central High Plains...
Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and
Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low
as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may
pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to
be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low
30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional
highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight
as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded
shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks
and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue
southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the
Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with
some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse
rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer.. 01/17/2026