MD 0120 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL


Mesoscale Discussion 0120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern/central MS and northern/central
AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262323Z - 270130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible for
the next next few hours. The main concern will be severe hail and
locally damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data depicts scattered thunderstorms
evolving along a weak surface boundary and ahead of a subtle surface
wave in northern/central MS into northern/central AL. A few of these
storms have recently intensified and are capable of producing severe
hail. Despite the loss of daytime heating, modest midlevel lapse
rates atop lower 60s dewpoints are yielding around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
ahead of these storms. This buoyancy, coupled with a long/straight
hodograph (50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear per GWX VWP) may continue to
favor a couple organized cells, to include marginal/transient
supercell structures. Given weak large-scale ascent, these storms
may remain mostly discrete/semi-discrete and pose a risk of isolated
severe hail for the next couple hours. However, storm mergers and
localized upscale growth into clusters along the boundary could also
support locally damaging gusts. Given the gradual onset of
boundary-layer nocturnal cooling and limited forcing for ascent, the
overall severe risk is expected to remain too localized/brief for a
watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 02/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33228599 32658679 32518819 32608939 32749029 33159072
            33689088 34319061 34659001 34828883 34768752 34628669
            34228601 33828589 33228599 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from
the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms
may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.

...01z Update...

Notable midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across
northern OK/southern MO early this evening. Synoptic front has
settled south to a position from southeast TN-northern MS-central
AR. While LLJ is primarily focused off the NC coast, weak low-level
warm advection is noted across the Mid-south ahead of the
progressive short wave. Scattered convection has developed along
this corridor, and several supercells are noted from east central AR
to northern AL. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail is observed
with the most robust updrafts golf ball size hail has been reported
with a few of these supercells. While scattered convection will
continue ahead of the digging short wave, nocturnal cooling should
begin to affect updraft strength a bit such that overall intensity
of this activity is expected to gradually weaken. Even so, hail/wind
are expected through at least mid evening until low-level lapse
rates begin to adjust to cooling surface temperatures.

..Darrow.. 02/27/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 061200Z

Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through Day
3/Saturday before the ridge over the Southwest slowly shifts east
Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. On Day 3/Saturday, continued downslope
flow in southeastern Wyoming will bring dry and breezy conditions
atop curing fuels. Throughout the day, 700 mb winds will decrease
and northwesterly flow aloft will gradually move eastward,
minimizing upper-level support for stronger sustained winds atop the
lowest RH. Therefore, 40% Critical probabilities have been withheld
for now. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 2/Friday into Day
3/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
holdovers from potential lightning ignitions. 

Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US. Depending on the
extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. Locally elevated fire
weather conditions may arise in areas with stronger terrain-driven
wind. 

Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday, a transition to southwesterly flow
aloft in the Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a
closed low develops off the West Coast and treks across the Great
Basin. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may
bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region. Despite model and
ensemble uncertainties in the overlap of strong winds and low RH in
the Southwest (and to some extent, parts of the southern High
Plains), elevated fire weather conditions may emerge as a result of
the overall synoptic pattern.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...