Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Afternoon Update... Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of 10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains. However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical highlights at this time. Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the 90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains, resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels. ...High Plains... A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south, the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the early stages of moisture return. ...Southeast... A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day of elevated fire weather conditions. ...New Mexico to eastern Arizona... Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development. Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile, lightning ignitions appear possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
