
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Northwest Gulf Coast into the Ark-La-Miss... The low-level airmass over this region is continuing to slowly modify after a previous arctic intrusion into the Gulf basin. Only limited diurnal destabilization (i.e., mainly 50s surface dewpoints yielding weak CAPE) is expected within a warm conveyor extending across the central Gulf Coast states eastward into the southern Appalachians. A mid-level trough will approach the region and aid in pushing a cold front southeast. Forecast soundings suggest weak, isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over east TX and the Ark-La-Tex before shifting east-southeast across the lower MS Valley later this evening into tonight. ..Smith/Jewell.. 02/03/2026Read more

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel trough will move from the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, while an amplified upper ridge persists along the Rockies. This will yield dry/stable conditions and limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 02/03/2026Read more