Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are expected to continue across the Front Range in Colorado through the afternoon. Morning surface observations have shown gusts 40-50 mph and relative humidity 15-25 percent across the foothills and into the Denver Metro extending southward to Pueblo. Winds will likely begin to decrease through the afternoon, but a few more hours of sustained winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph are expected. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
