Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture. Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.Read more