Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu...

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu
across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward
the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold
front.  Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from
GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be
ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result
in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse
rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential
appears less than 15 percent.

...Days 5-8/Fri-Mon...

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a
prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary
layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to
deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some
moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold
front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This
could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the
south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better
moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...East Texas northeast to the Ohio Valley vicinity...

A split-flow regime will continue into Wednesday, with upper
troughing over the central U.S. remaining bifurcated through much of
the period. In the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave
trough will migrate from TX to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the
northern stream upper trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop east across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of
these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend
from east TX into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. At the surface, a
cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern
Lower MI into western OK. This front will advance southeast through
the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the
central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport Gulf
moisture as far north as the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of
the ArkLaTex into the Midwest. This, along with the warm advection
regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in
how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with
northeast extent into parts of the Ohio Valley vicinity. Somewhat
stronger destabilization is likely across the Lower MS Valley where
richer Gulf moisture will reside. Strong vertical wind profiles will
support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. Linear
convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow
parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent
overspreading the boundary. If discrete cells can form, some tornado
potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the
vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley, and perhaps near a secondary
surface low over the lower MS Valley, though this scenario remains
highly uncertain.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential.

...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow
aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains.
A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting
dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2
(Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should
support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX,
the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and
receptive.

The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline
remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal
extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the
dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the
potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite
relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to
the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding
dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday.

While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture
profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these
storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep
low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes
are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for
lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry
thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at
this time.

..Lyons.. 03/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low
moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the
northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will
support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow
over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are probable.

...Central High Plains...
Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should
continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains.
Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface
low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected.
Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after
multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread
elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions
of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions
will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing
surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central
Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25
mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles
this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region
today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A
swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from
northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow
aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued
drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of
western OK.

..Lyons.. 03/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and
central Gulf states.

...Mid-South/Central Gulf States...

Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the
southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into
central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by
10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight
hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are
forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a
result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation
as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the
southern Plains into the northern Gulf states.

Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into
portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew
points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should
spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of
the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is
increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just
before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then
potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF
members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm
clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time.
Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and
hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat
will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward
northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA
during the evening.

...Southern AZ...

Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just
south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for
large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will
develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was
given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this
region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle
to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could
accompany the strongest convection.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/09/2026