SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early
this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later
tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered
thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into
southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity.
While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust
updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity
will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a
result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the
period.

..Darrow.. 02/22/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 011200Z

An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. 

...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions. 

...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.

Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast. 

Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains, 
with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
evolution/strength of the cyclone. 

Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area. 

...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains... 
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
at least Day 8/Saturday.

..Elliott.. 02/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today.  To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg.  This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening.  Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear.  However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts.  Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.