
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Southwest... A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas. As this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to advect northward across portions of southern California through the Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley. Coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional instability developing across the region overnight. The evolution of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at least 12Z Friday.. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A gradual breakdown of the highly amplified ridge across the western U.S. is expected through the weekend, with troughing becoming more established across the West by the middle of next week. An embedded mid-level short wave within the devolving ridge along with deepening lee surface troughing across the central/northern Plains will present an increased fire weather threat across portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Fire weather concerns could persist for portions of the Southern Plains early next week as surface troughing and subsequent stronger southwest flow affects the region. ...Day 3/Saturday... Dry and breezy conditions within a favorable downslope regime are likely across portions of the central High Plains Day 3 Saturday, where westerly winds align with low RH and persistently dry fuels. Farther south, dry southwest flow south of a deepening lee surface trough across the central Plains should support a fire weather threat to portions of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for these areas for Saturday. An exiting mid-level trough and dry, post-frontal flow is expected across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas region Saturday. However, recent precipitation and colder temperatures should mitigate a more significant fire weather threat. ...Day 5/Monday - Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns could linger across the southern central High Plains into early next week as surface lee troughing expands across the central Plains in the shadow of increasing mid-level flow over the central Rockies. However, increasing ensemble member spread and uncertainty regarding the northern extent of return Gulf moisture into the southern Plains precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more