Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short
wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast
of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes
region, Monday through Monday night.  It appears that the warm
sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become
characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the
dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi
Valley during the afternoon into evening.  In the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears
probable.  It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained
supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection
quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there
appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in
addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe
wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of
next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow
trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the
Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the
northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. 
Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from
the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still
forecast to progress into the Southwest.  But latest model output
suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east
of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface
cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across
the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may
tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba
through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity
weakens through this period.  However, mid/upper ridging across
southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable
strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of
the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong
southwesterly flow between the two features.

Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally
overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska
vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening,
before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by
12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern
portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the
southern Great Plains.  Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon
across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region
may reach portions of central Kansas.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon.  Downstream, models
suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early
Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau
vicinity, before tending to shift northward.

...Great Plains... 
Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within
latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during
this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell
development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest
Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization
and strengthening shear.  By early Sunday evening, this probably
will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet.  This may become
supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes,
in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable
across the western Kansas vicinity.

Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm
front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms
spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along
with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026