SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and
over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough over the lower Great Lakes is expected to rapidly
intensify as several smaller perturbations merge with the main
trough and western US ridging develops Sunday. A 100+ kt jet streak
will round the base of the trough and move over the Atlantic coast
through midday Sunday. Increasing large-scale ascent will aid in
rapid cyclogenesis off the NC Coast. The resulting mass response
will surge a cold front southward over portions of the FL Peninsula.

Ahead of the front, a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between
500 and 1000 J/kg should develop with daytime heating ahead of the
southward advancing front. This may support convective showers and a
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of central and
southern FL. However, warming/drying mid-levels and the departure of
stronger mid-level forcing for ascent should tend to limit lightning
coverage with southward extent into later Sunday

Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts,
intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm
advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated
instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to
support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the
Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night
into early Monday.

Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with another upper-trough may support shallow convection
along and off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. While coverage
should remain relatively low, cold mid-level temperatures and the
strong ascent could support a few lightning flashes through Sunday
evening.

..Lyons.. 02/21/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Surface observations at 16Z indicate pockets of elevated fire
weather conditions developing across southwest portions of the
Edwards Plateau in Texas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected to expand in coverage through this evening
across portions of South-Central Texas southward into the Big Bend
region, where sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
values near 15-20% will overlap receptive fuels. While the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest near critical
fire weather conditions are possible across southwest portions of
the Edwards Plateau and the South Texas Brush Country, these
conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a Critical fire
weather area. 

Please see the previous discussion below for more information,
including a discussion on the Elevated fire weather area across
southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

..Elliott.. 02/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. 

...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
additional highlights at this time.

...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today.  To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg.  This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening.  Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear.  However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts.  Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026