SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the
lower Mississippi Valley to northwest Georgia.

...01z Update...

Gulf State: Convection that developed over southeast OK/AR earlier
this morning has grown upscale as it spread across the Mid-South
region. This MCS is now spreading across northern AL and appears to
be gradually expanding in areal extent. Earlier supercell structures
have mostly merged within the broader precip shield, and latest MESH
cores support this with hail signatures primarily below severe
levels. As the MCS propagates downstream, locally damaging winds,
and marginal severe hail will be the primary concerns.

Farther south across the lower MS Valley, both JAN and LIX exhibit
strong deep layer shear and modest-strong buoyancy. Scattered robust
convection persists along this corridor, driven in part by weak
low-level warm advection and diurnal heating. For the next few
hours, isolated severe will continue within this environment, but
nocturnal cooling should lead to few storms by mid evening, along
with weaker convection.

Southern AZ: Scattered convection has developed along the northern
periphery of an upper low advancing east across northwest Mexico.
This activity will continue spreading north this evening as
favorable large-scale ascent is noted near the international border.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker updrafts and the overall
risk of damaging winds/large hail should gradually wane with time.

..Darrow.. 03/10/2026

MD 0183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA


Mesoscale Discussion 0183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into far eastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092342Z - 100145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may persist this evening in the short term.
Coverage and longevity of severe potential is not expected to
warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and upper 60s F dewpoints have led to
moderate instability over the northern Gulf Coast area with MUCAPE
around 2000 J/kg. While the primary lift is with the wave moving
across northern AL, scattered storms persist extending southwestward
across much of MS and into eastern LA.

The VWP from HDC shows veering winds with height, with 35-40 kt
effective shear, as well as 0-1 km SRH near 100 m2/s2. Given the
uncapped air mass and favorably shaped hodograph, some cells have
exhibited supercell characteristics at times.

As the boundary layer begins to cool this evening, the number and
intensity of cells is expected to decrease. In the short term,
localized hail, a brief tornado or strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30829104 31269068 31888982 32098872 31848813 31408798
            30768828 30578884 30539051 30829104 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 30 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 092100Z - 100300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 30
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and northern Alabama
  Extreme northwest and west central Georgia

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Mississippi
into Alabama through late evening, and eventually reach northwest
Georgia.  Storm mode will be complicated with a mix of clusters and
some embedded supercells with attendant threats of occasional wind
damage, large hail, and a tornado or two.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Muscle Shoals AL to 45 miles east northeast of Anniston AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28035.

...Thompson

WW 0030 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 30

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E TUP TO
30 SW HSV TO HSV TO 5 WNW CHA AND 5 N CBM TO 45 NW BHM TO 20 W
GAD TO 35 WNW RMG TO 15 SE CHA.

..JEWELL..03/10/26

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-049-055-057-073-107-111-
115-117-121-123-125-127-100140-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BLOUNT              CALHOUN             
CHAMBERS             CHEROKEE            CHILTON             
CLAY                 CLEBURNE            COOSA               
DEKALB               ETOWAH              FAYETTE             
JEFFERSON            PICKENS             RANDOLPH            
ST. CLAIR            SHELBY              TALLADEGA           
TALLAPOOSA           TUSCALOOSA          WALKER              


GAC015-045-055-057-063-067-077-083-089-097-113-115-121-143-149-
199-223-233-285-295-100140-

GA 
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARTOW               CARROLL             CHATTOOGA           
CHEROKEE             CLAYTON             COBB                
COWETA               DADE                DEKALB

WW 0029 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 29

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LLQ
TO 10 WNW GWO TO 35 NE GWO TO 20 SSE TUP TO 30 SSW MSL.

..JEWELL..03/09/26

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 29 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC003-017-100040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY               CHICOT              


LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-100040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           EAST CARROLL        
FRANKLIN             MADISON             MOREHOUSE           
RICHLAND             TENSAS              WEST CARROLL        


MSC001-007-013-015-017-019-021-025-029-037-043-049-051-053-055-
063-077-079-083-085-087-089-095-097-099-103-105-121-123-125-127-
133-149-151-155-159-163-100040-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push
eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow
largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough
passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This
will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over
portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from
previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will
likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast.

On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30
mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the
cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical
thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the
High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to
eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities
were combined and also extended further north just barely into
southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward
this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South
Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not
expected to reach critical thresholds.

On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities
were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple
consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on
Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming
weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on
Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly
higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly
less mixing.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...