MD 2233 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN


Mesoscale Discussion 2233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 252332Z - 260530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates upwards of 1-2 inches/hour will
spread east/northeast across central Minnesota into northern
Wisconsin through the evening hours. Additionally, strong winds will
continue to support areas of blizzard conditions, especially in open
country and under heavier snow bands.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaics and surface observations show an
intense cyclone over the Twin Cities area. Aloft, ascent associated
with a narrow, but strong, zone of warm advection between 850-700 mb
is overlapping with lift within the left-exit region of a 500 mb
jet, which is supporting a broad swath of moderate to heavy snowfall
rates from the Sisseton hills in northeast SD into west-central MN.
These ascent mechanisms will continue to be favorably phased over
the next several hours, and will support 1-2 inch/hour snowfall
rates across central MN to northern WI and parts of the Upper
Peninsula as the cyclone and surface freezing line shift east. Given
the focused corridor of mesoscale ascent, snow banding will be
possible and may support locally higher snowfall rates in excess of
2 inches/hour. 

In addition to the potential for heavy snowfall rates, 25-35 mph
surface winds on the backside of the surface low are supporting
areas of blizzard conditions with visibility below 1/4 mile recently
noted on several web cams across western MN. Although temperatures
will remain relatively warm (30-32 F), the combination of strong
winds and moderate/heavy snowfall rates will continue to promote
areas of blizzard conditions, especially across open country and
under any heavier snow bands that develop.

..Moore.. 11/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   45009527 45909028 46048958 46278915 46658904 46938909
            47138947 47339003 47489078 47479145 47369210 47139315
            46369630 46169666 45909675 45029659 44919633 44949584
            45009527

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms remain possible from southern Alabama into
western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through late evening, and
over Deep South Texas.

...AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...
A marginally unstable air mass remains ahead of a cold front this
evening, extending from northwest GA across central AL. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing near/ahead of the front, with minimal
indications of severe potential currently. However, PWAT values up
to 1.50" persist, with minimal convective inhibition especially over
southern areas. Southwest 850 mb winds near 30 kt is also supporting
areas of 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH, which could aid rotation in
the stronger storms. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk, with
a low-end risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging gusts over the
next several hours.

...Deep South TX...
Weak easterly low-level flow persists this evening south of a
developing cold front, with 70s F dewpoints onshore. The 00Z CRP
sounding show minimal capping, though winds are weak below 700 mb.
Farther south, the 00Z BRO soundings still indicates substantial
capping. Latest radar already indicates convective showers may be
developing inland.

Conditionally, the environment supports hail over 1.00" diameter,
with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer effective shear around 50
kt. The primary uncertainty is due to weak lift. However, the cold
front will eventually push south into the moist and unstable air
mass later tonight, and this may result in sufficient lift for a few
strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms with localized hail threat.
As such, 5% hail probabilities have been added.

..Jewell.. 11/26/2025