
Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...parts of central Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...
Valid 110301Z - 110430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storms remain likely this evening across WW32. A
few tornadoes, hail and an increasing damaging wind threat are
expected.
DISCUSSION...Across parts of far eastern MO/IA into central IL,
several clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing as of 0300
UTC. A mixed convective mode is present, and expected to continue,
with semi-discrete supercells ongoing over the western portions of
the watch area. These storms are moving into a very strongly sheared
air mass that remains moderately unstable (LSX VAD 0-1km SRH 500+
m2/s2). This will continue to support supercells and linear
structures capable of all hazards. With time, upscale growth into
one or more linear clusters appears likely. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible.
..Lyons.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40709160 41149045 41178950 41098875 40738831 40508822
40018833 39808928 39629093 39659124 39709146 40709160
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
and far western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 110254Z - 110530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A risk of damaging winds and tornadoes may develop into
eastern Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and far western Arkansas this
evening and overnight. A new watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Several corridors of strong to severe storms are
ongoing from southeast KS into southern OK and North TX. Much of
this activity has become linear/MCS, though embedded cells are noted
at times. The environment remains favorable for a continued severe
risk across the remainder of eastern OK into adjacent states, with
40-50 kt effective shear and a moist and unstable air mass. Further,
low-level shear and SRH has increased markedly over the last few
hours. For instance, the SGF VWP indicates over 500 m2/s2 0-1 SRH,
with nearly 400 m2/s2 at INX which is conditionally favorable for
strong tornadoes.
Conditionally, if discrete cells can develop ahead of the
approaching lines of storms, conditions would clearly favor
tornadoes. If the storm mode remains largely linear, corridors of
damaging winds and embedded mesocyclones may still yield a tornado.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35309659 37339614 37879571 38079488 38069434 37819358
37229334 36559337 34339433 33829481 33799549 33979649
34659672 35309659
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...North Texas into south-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 33...38...
Valid 110157Z - 110400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 33, 38 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential is evident over
North Texas from the Metroplex into south-central Oklahoma. A
tornado cannot be ruled out where cells are discrete.
DISCUSSION...A squall line has become more organized this evening,
with a prominent leading bow now moving across Wise and Parker
counties in TX. Just ahead of this line, small convective elements
are noted confirming increasing mesoscale lift and the unstable and
uncapped air mass.
The 00Z sounding at FWD shows robust instability with 2850 J/kg
MLCAPE, and a long hodograph. Low-level shear has increased per VWPs
this evening, aiding rightward storm propagation in the moist
low-level environment.
In addition tot the bow, other cells developing to the north will be
monitored for further organization, including tornado potential as
this area remains very moist and unstable with increasing low-level
shear.
..Jewell.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33599785 33889751 34359726 34649715 34929691 34959651
34829603 34459570 33919561 33379575 33339581 33079599
32699651 32549701 32549798 33009777 33279781 33599785
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 33 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BWD TO 20 NE BWD TO 25 E SEP TO 5 NNW FTW TO 40 WSW GYI TO 20 SW ADM TO 10 SE OKC TO 35 S END TO 20 WNW END TO 35 SW ICT. ..JEWELL..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-027-029-037-047-049-053-063-069-071-081-083-085- 087-095-099-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-125-133-110440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRANT HUGHES JOHNSTON KAY LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE TXC093-097-121-143-181-193-221-333-425-110440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COMANCHE COOKE DENTON ERATH GRAYSON HAMILTONRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 33
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon in a warm and moist air mass. Supercells and linear storm
segments are likely, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Ponca City OK to
20 miles east southeast of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Hart
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE AVK TO 30 SSW ICT TO 15 SE ICT TO 35 NE ICT TO 25 NW EMP. ..JEWELL..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-035-191-110440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE COWLEY SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over northwest Oklahoma will build
northeastward this evening across the watch area. Large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Medicine Lodge KS to 50 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Hart
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-031-035-053-085-099-113-119-137-139-145-147-171-209- 217-223-231-251-257-259-265-271-277-281-293-299-309-323-349-379- 385-397-439-453-463-465-491-110440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS DELTA EDWARDS ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GILLESPIE HAYS HILL HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN KENDALL KERR KINNEY LAMAR LAMPASAS LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MAVERICK NAVARRO RAINS REAL ROCKWALL TARRANT TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 38
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and North Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 815 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are tracking eastward across TX through a
moist and unstable air mass. A few storms may maintain a risk of
large hail and damaging winds for several more hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Paris TX to 50 miles southwest of Austin TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Hart
Read more

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains to southern Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Northern Indiana Northern and Central Illinois Southern Lower Michigan * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a couple intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 03/10/2026Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 39 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Lower Michigan Lake Huron * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1000 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over western Lower Michigan will spread eastward this evening, posing a risk of large hail and gusty winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Saginaw MI to 35 miles east southeast of Bad Axe MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...HartRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 36
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Western Illinois
Southeast Kansas
Central and Northern Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front extending
from eastern Kansas into southeast Iowa. A few severe storms are
expected across this region through the evening, with large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Emporia
KS to 65 miles east northeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MHK TO 20 SE TOP TO 30 NE MKC TO 20 ENE CDJ TO 30 ESE OTM TO 35 W MLI. ..LYONS..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...LSX...ICT...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-110240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS KSC001-003-019-031-045-049-059-073-091-099-107-111-121-125-133- 139-205-207-209-110240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON LABETTE LINN LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC001-013-033-037-041-047-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115- 121-127-137-159-175-177-195-197-205-211-110240-Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE OTM TO 25 SE CID TO 25 WSW DBQ TO 35 NW DBQ. ..LYONS..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-015-031-037-043-085-089-093-097-103-111-141-161-177-195- 197-201-110240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL COOK DE KALB DUPAGE JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL LAKE LEE MCHENRY OGLE ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO IAC031-045-061-097-105-139-163-110240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR CLINTON DUBUQUE JACKSON JONES MUSCATINE SCOTT MIC005-015-025-037-045-057-065-067-075-077-081-117-121-139-159-Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread the
watch area through the evening. These storms will pose a risk of
large hail, and perhaps damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from Cedar Rapids IA to 15
miles southeast of Grand Rapids MI. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE 6R6 TO 70 NE 6R6 TO 30 S SJT TO 45 WSW BWD TO 20 NW BWD TO 45 WNW SEP. ..JEWELL..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-095-105-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-385-411- 413-435-463-465-110240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN CONCHO CROCKETT EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. ...01z Update... Large reservoir of MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg extends across the southern Plains through the mid MS Valley into northwest Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low near the IA/MO/IL border, lifting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. A very sharp warm front extends across northern IL into lower MI and this will serve as the demarcation for surface-based convection through sunrise. Scattered supercells have developed along and just south of the warm front, immediately ahead of the surface low. This aligns with earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for potentially strong tornadoes along with very large hail. 00z sounding from ILX strongly supports this with very steep lapse rates and strong instability. Additionally, 0-3km SRH is on the order of 300 m2/s2. This activity will spread/develop east/northeast along/near the warm front, as currently depicted by the Moderate Risk. Farther southwest across the central Plains, isolated severe supercells are developing along the cold front across northwest MO-south central KS. These storms should gradually increase in areal coverage later this evening as they advance downstream as LLJ is forecast to increase across eastern OK into central MO. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over northeast Mexico/far west TX. This feature is beginning to open up as it ejects northeast. Leading edge of large-scale ascent has overspread the dry line, and earlier supercell activity is beginning to evolve into a linear MCS from the Edwards Plateau into portions of northwest TX. This activity should continue to grow upscale as it spreads downstream, as strengthening LLJ across central TX will support ongoing organization. 00z soundings from both FWD and OUN exhibit very steep lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear, and strong instability and this strongly suggests the potential for longer-lived supercells and QLCS. ..Darrow.. 03/11/2026Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 32
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Northern and Central Illinois
Far Northwest Indiana
Far Northeast Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should quickly develop this
afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large
hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will likely
increase through the evening with any supercells that can remain
along and south of a surface boundary draped across southeast Iowa
into north-central Illinois and northwest Indiana. A couple of
strong to intense tornadoes appear possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds may also occur.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Burlington IA to 100
miles east northeast of Bloomington IL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Gleason
Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 37
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 745 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...An intense supercell over northeast Illinois will track
eastward into the watch area this evening, while other storms form
along a boundary across the region. Tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging wind gusts will be possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles west southwest of Valparaiso
IN to 75 miles east of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The large-scale pattern remains progressive through the forecast period with the jet stream favoring northern portions of the CONUS. A trough will move through the Great Lakes region on Day 3/Thursday with another trough and associated jet max moving through the same areas again on Day 4/Friday, leaving much of the western and central CONUS under west to northwest flow as a ridge builds over the West Coast. Another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Saturday and digs into the southern CONUS on Day 6/Sunday before approaching the Eastern Seaboard by Day 7/Monday. On Day 3/Thursday, surface temperatures will rebound 5-15 degrees above normal across much of central CONUS. This will lead to a well mixed atmosphere with the jet stream positioned over the northern 1/3 of the CONUS. Thus, dry air and windy conditions will reach the surface with the strongest northwest winds of 20-30 mph over western Nebraska and also westerly winds of 20-30 mph in a somewhat narrow corridor over east-central New Mexico and much of the Texas Panhandle. On Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday, conditions aloft will be fairly similar throughout both days with downslope flow likely from near the Colorado Front Range through eastern New Mexico. These days will have to be watched closely to determine if higher probabilities of critical conditions will need to be introduced with future issuances. On Day 6/Sunday, the jet reaches farther south into the Southwest and southern High Plains as the aforementioned large scale trough digs farther south toward the region. Forecast guidance remains uncertain due to the track and timing of the trough as it progresses eastward. However, it's likely given the pattern that portions of this area bear at least a 40% chance of critical conditions as a cold front pushes south through the central/southern Plains. At the end of the forecast period, much of the western CONUS will be continuing to experience several consecutive days of drier and warmer than normal conditions. While fuels are not yet receptive in many of these areas, these anomalous conditions for mid March could begin to affect fuel dryness well ahead of seasonal norms. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more