SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today.

...NY/PA/WV...
A deep, cold upper trough will be present today over the eastern US,
with the trough axis and associated cold pool aloft moving across
the upper OH Valley.  Forecast soundings suggest that despite cold
mid-level temperatures below -30C, weak/shallow CAPE profiles will
preclude charge separation except on a very isolated basis.

Elsewhere no thunderstorms are forecast today.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/11/2026

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 11 12:35:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 11 12:35:02 UTC 2026.

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in
the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be
favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower
forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high
pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens
across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move
southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and
dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason,
thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S.
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026