Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California. ...South-central Plains/Ozarks... Scattered rain and generally weak thunderstorms will continue to accompany and reinforce a southward-shifting front, with the boundary stalling today, before starting to shift back northward late tonight. Weakening flow aloft will occur today in the presence of a building upper ridge and corresponding height rises. As outflows dissipate, ample heating/mixing is expected later today to the south of the front, where MLCAPE values may exceed 1500 J/kg across Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Even with modest overall forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of far southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front, and also within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity. With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis more immediately near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, although localized strong/damaging wind gusts could also occur. ...Nevada/southeast OR/southwest ID and north-central CA... A closed upper low off the coast of northern California will open and become more progressive, reaching the Sierra and parts of the Great Basin tonight. Related forcing for ascent and moisture will influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of central/northern California into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg. Mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase over time, with the most favorable overlap of vertical shear and instability expected across western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. A few locally severe storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California this afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker as compared to the northern Great Basin, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado, although this potential currently seems low/uncertain. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/10/2026Read more