SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the central US. Depending on the
extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. RH values of 10-15%
combined with westerly surface winds of 10-20 mph atop dry fuels may
generate locally elevated fire weather conditions in eastern New
Mexico on Day 3/Sunday.

Through early next week, broad southwesterly flow aloft in the
Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a trough is
forecast to move east across CONUS. Enhanced southerly surface flow
may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region, though the
extent of moisture advection is uncertain. Significant spread exists
in the timing of upper trough ejection and development of a lee
surface low. Despite model and ensemble uncertainties in the overlap
of strong winds and low RH in the Southwest (and to some extent,
parts of the southern High Plains), elevated fire weather conditions
are likely to emerge Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. 

Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday, a large upper-level trough is
forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest. Notable variance exists
in long-term model solutions in the strength and/or evolution. The
synoptic pattern could suggest the potential for fire weather
conditions, though given the overall uncertainty in the upper-level
pattern evolution, probabilities have been withheld for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe
thunderstorms appears low.

...20z Update - Southeast...

No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous
discussion below for details.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.

...Synopsis...
The mean northwesterly flow regime currently over the CONUS will
gradually begin to shift east through the late weekend and into
early next week as a somewhat more potent upper-level wave
approaches the West Coast. Cooling temperatures aloft associated
with the approaching upper wave will support adequate buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms across CA and into OR, NV, and parts of
southwest ID late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Further
east, strengthening mid-level flow across the central Rockies will
promote weak lee cyclogenesis in proximity to a residual baroclinic
zone across the southern Plains. An uptick in low-level winds will
augment isentropic upglide over the frontal zone across OK into
eastern KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR. Strong mid-level winds
atop strong veering in the lowest few kilometers will conditionally
support organized convection; however, most guidance suggests
buoyancy profiles will remain fairly limited (less than 500 J/kg
MUCAPE per GEFS/ECENS output) due to meager moisture quality. This
limits confidence in any severe threat at this time. Isolated
thunderstorms may linger across southern FL where an unstable, but
weakly capped, environment should be in place as a weak frontal
boundary drifts south.

..Moore.. 02/27/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...19z Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Localized elevated
fire weather conditions may arise in far southeastern Wyoming on
Saturday afternoon. The ongoing prolonged downslope wind event
should come to a close early evening as northwesterly flow aloft
moves east and 700mb flow decreases. RH values of 15-25% and
sustained west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally
higher gusts) may exist for only a couple of hours, maintaining
localized fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will
gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening
flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains
downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great
Plains. 

...Portions of southeastern Wyoming...
Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level
flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained
surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low
as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of
15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening
upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of
higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values,
elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized.

...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may
heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms
pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas
that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from
lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...