SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

The upper-level pattern over the next 8 days will generally feature
a trough in the East with ridging in the West. This will favor
repeated cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Within the
upper-level ridging, temperatures will be warmer within the
Southwest into parts of the southern Plains. This could lead to
areas of modest fuel drying, though current fuel states are not
receptive given recent cool/cold temperatures and precipitation. As
surface cyclones/lee troughs develop in the southern High Plains,
some dry and breezy conditions will be possible. As noted, fuels are
not receptive and confidence in more than localized concerns is
quite low at this time.

..Wendt.. 12/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 4 20:52:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 4 20:52:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previously issued outlook.

..Smith.. 12/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.

As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 12/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/

...Synopsis...
Downslope flow off the southern Rockies and weak lee cyclogenesis
over the central High Plains will favor 15-20 mph sustained westerly
surface winds and 15-20 percent RH from east-central NM into the TX
South Plains during the afternoon. However, ongoing precipitation
atop marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to
continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the
Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the
northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along
the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will
largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The
exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
where a few thunderstorms are possible early.

...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle...
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop
across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving
out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of
this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday
morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization
could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to
the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the
front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears
most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where
storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based
for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any
surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential
remains too low for probabilities.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.

..Moore.. 12/04/2025