Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. is likely to remain in place through much of next week, with occasional embedded mid-level short waves and cold fronts translating southeastward within the broad west-northwest flow. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are likely to persist across much of the Intermountain West under an upper-level ridge through at least the middle of next week. Ensemble and longer term guidance depicts a de-amplifying wave pattern emerging for the latter part of next week which could allow more opportunities for rainfall across the West but with appreciable timing/spatial uncertainty of cold fronts/dry return flow events across the central/southern Plains. Precipitation associated with a cold front and vigorous mid-level trough is expected across much of the Southeast on Day 3/Sunday, temporarily mitigating fire weather threat through at least mid week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern Plains... Dry southwest flow is expected to develop across the southern Plains as surface high pressure moves towards the TX Gulf Coast. Downslope warming and drying along with breezy southwest surface winds could bring a fire weather threat back to portions of northwest TX and southern OK, where a 40% critical probability area was introduced. Farther north, post-frontal winds from the northwest will impact the central Plains, but cooler temperatures and uncertainty in RH reductions could limit a broader fire weather concern. ..Williams.. 01/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
