MD 0524 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA


Mesoscale Discussion 0524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...much of northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 250109Z - 250315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind and hail potential should
persist into northeast Texas and parts of northwest Louisiana this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A robust complex of storms is moving out of southeast
OK and into northeast TX, with a particularly large cell on the
southwest flank over Lamar County TX. This cell has an impressive
satellite presentation, with large overshooting tops. 00Z soundings
indicate strong instability remains in place, beneath the westerly
flow regime aloft. While the outflow boundary continues to push
southwestward, reducing SBCAPE, it may eventually slow as the storm
complex propagates south/southeast. This should leave a corridor of
wind damage potential, with large hail possible as well due to
lengthy mid/upper hodographs. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out if
the outflow boundary slows later this evening.

..Jewell/Leitman.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   33519595 33719573 34069507 34109477 34029437 33689398
            33209369 32739322 32289293 31869297 31559330 31489394
            31509474 31819550 32649591 33519595 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

MD 0523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI


Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...far southern Arkansas...northeast
Louisiana...southwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250032Z - 250230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms near an outflow boundary may produce
brief periods of marginal hail this evening from southern Arkansas
into northern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to push southward across
northern LA and into southwest MS. This boundary is undercutting a
very moist and unstable air mass, with periodic strong to marginally
severe storms at times.

Forcing for ascent is generally limited to this shallow boundary, as
southwesterly boundary layer winds are not particularly strong. For
example, 15-20 kt at 850 mb on area VWPs. However, given such strong
instability on nearby 00Z soundings, the undercutting action/lift of
the outflow boundary may be enough for a couple more hours of
marginal severe risk, including hail at or above 1.00" and localized
strong gusts. Given the scattered and likely short-lived nature of
these cells, a watch is not anticipated.

..Jewell/Leitman.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32359326 32759334 33569330 33609273 32239066 31838994
            31628956 31158965 31038980 31079061 31219139 31659233
            31939293 32359326 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will continue this evening from the southern Plains,
into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, wind
damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. The strongest of
storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the
Ark-La-Tex this evening. Ahead of the trough, a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing from near the Red River
northeastward across far southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
This cluster is located at the northern end of an axis of strong
instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE near the instability axis
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In this area, RAP forecast soundings
also show steep mid-level lapse rates, exceeding 7.5 C/km. In
addition to this favorable thermodynamic environment, a low to
mid-level speed max is evident over the Ark-La-Tex, where flow is
westerly at 45 to 50 knots. This is creating moderate to strong
deep-layer shear, which will continue to be favorable for severe
storms this evening. Cells that can remain semi-descrete will could
be supercellar and have potential for large to very large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more intense storms. The large hail threat should persist for a
few more hours as the cluster interacts with the strong instability
over the Ark-La-Tex. Supercells could also be associated with a
wind-damage and tornado threat. 

The cluster of storms is expected to gradually organize into a
linear MCS, moving east-southeastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley during the mid to late evening. Severe wind gusts will become
the primary threat as the line segment develops. A couple of QLCS
tornadoes will be possible as well. The severe threat may persist
into the early overnight period...See MCD 521 and 523.

..Broyles.. 04/25/2026

WW 0141 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 141

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..04/25/26

ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC057-061-073-081-091-133-250140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HEMPSTEAD            HOWARD              LAFAYETTE           
LITTLE RIVER         MILLER              SEVIER              


OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-067-069-085-089-095-099-123-137-
250140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                BRYAN               CARTER              
CHOCTAW              COAL                COTTON              
GARVIN               JEFFERSON           JOHNSTON            
LOVE                 MCCURTAIN           MARSHALL            
MURRAY               PONTOTOC            STEPHENS            


TXC037-063-067-085-097-119-147-159-181-223-231-277-343-379-387-
397-449-499-250140-

TX

WW 141 TORNADO AR OK TX 241855Z - 250200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Arkansas
  Southern and Eastern Oklahoma
  North and Northeast Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense storm development including supercells is
anticipated through mid/late afternoon across the region, especially
in vicinity of a front and modifying outflow boundary, and perhaps
near/just of a dryline across north Texas. Very large hail is
possible, along with a tornado risk, with damaging winds also
expected to increase by early evening in anticipation of storms
clustering/organizing as they move southeastward toward and across
the ArkLaTex.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Chickasha OK to 25
miles north northeast of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.

...Guyer

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level short wave trough enters the Southwest on Day
3/Sunday while an attendant jet max pushing into the southern High
Plains, bringing an enhanced fire weather threat to the region where
fuels remain receptive. Lingering strong southwesterly flow aloft
and a departing surface low across the Midwest, will continue to
bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the southern High
Plains on Day 4/Monday. The broader troughing pattern across the
western U.S. should bring some relief to much of the Intermountain
West in the form of cooler temperatures and precipitation. Mid/upper
troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. by mid to late week, bringing
much needed additional rainfall to much of the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, although some pockets of lingering dry
fuels could exist by the end of next week.

...Day 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A strong mid-level jet and parent trough entering the Southwest and
incipient surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will
bring an expansive wind event to portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Enhanced downslope drying with west
winds of 15-25 mph behind a demarcating dry line will likely bring a
critical fire weather threat to much of southern and eastern NM, TX
Panhandle and West TX where some modifications to the 40% and 70%
critical probabilities were made. Latest forecast guidance does
suggest the potential for a corridor of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions, including southwest winds of 30-35 mph over
receptive fuels, emerging across portions of southern and eastern NM
by Sunday afternoon.

Lingering fire weather concerns should be concentrated across the
Southwest and Southern Plains through Day 5/Tuesday as persistent
westerly flow aloft and dry conditions persist, as upper-level
troughing begins to shift into the central U.S. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for both Day 4/Monday and Day
5/Tuesday for portions of NM and West TX to account for dry, fire
effective westerly winds encompassing portions of the Southern
Plains. Longer term model guidance indicates a lower latitude
mid-level wave moving into the Southwest and northern Mexico by the
Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday time frame. A corresponding surface low
across southern TX could bring much of eastern NM and the Southern
Plains much needed rainfall owing to more favorable Gulf moisture
return trajectories.

..Williams.. 04/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...