SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 03:47:14 PM CST
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

Mid-level flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies
with short-waves traversing the crest of the central US ridge
through the extended period. Eventually the ridge will break down,
with potential for ejection of a deeper wave across Southwest into
the Plains by the end of the period. Widespread rainfall will be
common across the western US/eastern US during this time period,
with little to no precipitation extending into the central/southern
High Plains. As such, multiple periods of interest are expected to
produce fire weather concerns.

...D3/Sunday through D4/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains...
On D3/Sunday, aforementioned westerly flow aloft will increase
across the northern/central Rockies. As a result of increasing
westerly gradients and surface low development, an increase in
downslope flow is expected across portions of the Front Range. There
remains some disconnect in deterministic model runs in the strongest
winds with the lowest relative humidity, with the strongest winds
across Wyoming into Nebraska and the driest conditions across
eastern Colorado into western Kansas.

Given the pattern, confidence is increasing that winds across the
immediate Front Range and downslope favored zones will likely be
higher than progged with lower relative humidity than in current
guidance, with sustained westerly flow 15-20 mph gusting 30+ mph. It
is also likely that through the higher elevations, winds may be even
stronger. Fuels across portions of northeastern Colorado into
Wyoming continue to be historically dry (seasonally above average
and approaching maximum dryness for the time period). As such, a 40
percent area was introduced along the Front Range and into
southeastern Wyoming.

...D5/Tuesday - Southern/Central Plains...
Upper-level flow will shift southward D5/Tuesday, with increase in
downslope flow expected to extend into the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles. Fuels across these regions remain critically dry. A 40
percent area was maintained with this outlook across eastern New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and extend into
southeastern Colorado. Some consideration was given to a small 70
percent region across the Texas Panhandle. For now, have maintained
the 40 percent with some disagreement remaining in exactly how low
relative humidity will be.

Beyond D5/Tuesday, periods of locally Elevated conditions may occur
across portions of the Central/Southern Plains as flow aloft remains
strong. However, surface pressure gradients weaken D6/Wednesday with
a building surface high. A stronger wave may eject from the
Southwest on D7/Thursday to D8/Friday. At the same time, a
stationary front may evolve across the eastern US into the southern
Plains, bringing several rounds of precipitation. It is likely that
some area of the central/southern High Plains will see additional
increased fire weather potential. For now, model spread on features
remains too high to include areas at this time.

..Thornton.. 01/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 2 21:48:01 UTC 2026
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 03:47:06 PM CST
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 2 21:48:01 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 3
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 03:47:02 PM CST
MD 0003 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NE
MD 0003 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central NE

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 021834Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain may continue through the afternoon, and may
occasionally mix with sleet. Modest ice accretion is possible.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation has gradually increased in coverage
through the morning across western/central NE, in association with
midlevel shortwave trough moving east-southeastward across the
region. Initial dryness in the 850-700 mb layer (as observed in the
18Z OAX sounding) has likely limited precipitation amounts to some
extent, but a modest increase in rates is possible into mid
afternoon as saturation occurs and precipitation continues. The
surface freezing line is currently oriented north-south across
west-central NE, and is expected to make only slow eastward progress
through the afternoon, as ongoing precipitation and low-level
cold/dry advection help to maintain subfreezing conditions farther
east. 

The bulk of the afternoon precipitation will fall where surface
temperatures will remain below freezing. Some sleet will be possible
within the colder environment across north-central/northeast NE, but
short-term guidance continues to indicate primarily freezing rain
across central NE, where a shallower subfreezing layer will be in
place. Precipitation will generally remain rather light, but 3-hour
rates may approach or exceed 0.05", with modest ice accretion
possible.

..Dean.. 01/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42599956 42539834 41849752 41329706 40939707 40739767
            40719860 40919965 41139992 41439999 42160004 42599956 

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SPC Jan 2, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 01:47:51 PM CST
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Scattered
elevated thunderstorms remain possible over portions of the
Southeast tonight associated with the advancing shortwave trough.
Weak buoyancy should largely limit the severe risk.

To the west, isolated thunderstorms are also possible over portions
of northern coastal CA. Increasingly strong westerly flow aloft
could support an occasional stronger gust with an advancing frontal
rain band. But again, weak buoyancy will likely preclude a
greater-than sporadic severe threat through tonight.

..Lyons.. 01/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/

...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.

The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.

...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.

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SPC Jan 2, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 01:25:53 PM CST
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of
the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day
Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL
Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the
coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will
limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production.
Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the
coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most
likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA
and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread
modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared
to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection.
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the
northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of
mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all
guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 01:18:25 PM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 01/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on
Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern
trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the
Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US
longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture
will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this
trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once
again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest
Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds
should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Jan 2, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Fri, 02 Jan 2026 at 11:28:33 AM CST
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

...Southeast...
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show
the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening
surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery
over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest
strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into
the Southeast states through Saturday evening. 

Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection
regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late
afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low
to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late
afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should
support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing
showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some
degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer
shear for organized convection, including the potential for
semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs
through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado
threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode
limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is
reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest
signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor
of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective
environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.

...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland
over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating
when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely
support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through
the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature
that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,
40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and
support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

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