
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), models indicate that a vigorous short wave perturbation will undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin, into the northern Rockies Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop inland, centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Guidance indicates that the lead perturbation will be accompanied by an intense mid/upper jet (including a 100-110+ kt maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be supporting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday. ...Southern California coast... It appears that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, will gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, NAM forecast soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable low-level hodographs developing, aided by orography, south of the western Transverse Ranges into the Los Angeles Basin, potentially contributing to an environment conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to be over the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge over northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This should result in dry, breezy conditions across parts of the central and northern High Plains and downslope flow along the Front Range in Colorado. RH near 15-20% is expected along in the presence of winds near 15-20 mph with localized higher winds possible near the mountainous terrain. These factors along with dry fuels in the area prompted the addition of an Elevated area across portions of the central and northern High Plains. Precipitation is expected across parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado, with the much of the wetting rains expected to remain south of the Elevated risk area. However, if more or less rain falls than expected, adjustments may be needed in this area. ..Supinie.. 02/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east, elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region. ..Supinie.. 02/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late Sunday afternoon into early evening across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two. ...Discussion... Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, it still appears that a prominent blocking ridge centered over the mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W) may undergo further amplification toward the higher latitudes, across and north-northwest of the Aleutians in mid/upper levels through this period. As this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast. It appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the base of this feature will support modest renewed surface cyclogenesis, but this is generally forecast to occur and remain offshore of central and southern California coastal areas through 12Z Monday, as an initial occluding cyclone weakens to the north and northwest. Downstream, it appears that flow across the Rockies into the western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase. In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Sunday night. Spread persists within/among the various model output concerning this troughing. In general, guidance suggests that an embedded mid-level cyclonic circulation and associated surface cyclone will tend to weaken by the time it progresses offshore by late Sunday night. However, at least some guidance, including the NAM and Rapid Refresh, appear to maintain a stronger mid-level perturbation across the eastern Gulf Coast states through the day Sunday. ...Eastern Gulf States... Questions remain concerning the extent to which thermodynamic profiles may be conducive to continuing severe weather potential, in association with an initial line of convection which may be in the process of spreading into Alabama and offshore of the southeastern Louisiana coast at the outset of the period. Moist adiabatic or more stable near surface lapse rates and weak CAPE, particularly inland of coastal areas, still seem likely to limit the risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes at least into early afternoon, as activity progresses eastward. Through mid to late afternoon, it is appearing increasingly probable that a belt of 40-50+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer will overspread the northern Florida/southern Georgia vicinity. As this occurs, forecast soundings from the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM suggest that this may be accompanied by rapidly moistening and destabilizing thermodynamic profiles rooted within the boundary layer, coincident with low-level hodographs becoming rather large and clockwise curved, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. It appears that this environment may contribute to a re-intensification of the convective line, with embedded supercells and perhaps preceded by discrete supercell development. As this activity tends to propagate eastward toward the coast into early evening, it may be accompanied by damaging wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi. ...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley... Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated severe threat. Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS. Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of the period. ..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026Read more