SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the mid-Atlantic seaboard
this evening, as another trough moves across the northern Plains.
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move across
the Southeast as a cold front advances across the central Plains. A
cold and dry airmass will remain in place over much of the nation,
being unfavorable for thunderstorm development through tonight.

..Broyles.. 01/16/2026

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 16 00:55:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 16 00:55:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

The upper-level pattern from this weekend through next week will
feature a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Model
guidance continues to suggest the possible development/evolution of
the trough within the West late next week into the weekend, but
model variability--both between models and run-to-run--grows rather
large by that time frame. This pattern will promote multiple cold
air intrusions east of the Divide. Precipitation appears likely from
the Mississippi Valley eastward. The southern High Plains into parts
of the central High Plains are expected to remain dry. Depending on
how fuels respond to the colder air, some fire risk could increase
in these areas where stronger surface winds/downsloping occur.
Predictability of where this will occur and how intense these
conditions will be is too low for highlights.

..Wendt.. 01/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...