SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern
FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near
the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted
better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z
sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest
radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably.
Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore,
especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few
hours.

00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep
boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is
mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only
has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it
appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough
approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects
into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may
accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.

..Darrow.. 03/01/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.

...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).

...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.

...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.

..Barnes.. 02/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...