Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sun -- Deep South/Southeast...

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day
4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist
boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much
remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit
instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems
most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and
trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk
appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread
heavy rain.

...Days 5-8...

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east
from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium
range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading
across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper
shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However,
forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some
increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of
the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity,
but predictability is low.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of
Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind
gusts are the most likely hazard.

...OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will be oriented from the
central High Plains to the Southern Rockies and northern Mexico
Saturday morning. The trough will progress eastward through the
period, extending from the Ozarks to the western Gulf Coast by early
Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low in the vicinity of the TX
Panhandle/western OK will modestly deepen as it shifts east toward
northern MS through the period and a trailing cold front advancing
southeast across the region. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow,
characterized by a 60-80 kt 500 mb jet, will overspread the region
by afternoon into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a 30-40 kt
southerly low-level jet across OK/TX early in the period will
intensify with eastward extent after 00z. Forecast guidance depicts
40-50 kt 850mb southwesterly flow over AR/LA/MS/AL after dark. 

Most guidance maintains surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low
60s F across the region, with perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints hugging
the immediate Gulf Coast. Midlevel cooling atop moistening low to
midlevels will support modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), especially over portions of TX/OK into western LA/southwest
AR. Instability is likely to wane somewhat with eastward extent
overnight as lapse rates weaken, nocturnal boundary layer
stabilization occurs, along with convection possibly outpacing
better moisture return.

Overall, at least some isolated risk for severe storms appears
possible across a broad area from central/southeast OK into
central/eastern TX, eastward toward the Lower MS Valley. Initial
thunderstorms development is likely to be cells/clusters near the
surface low and trailing cold front over OK/TX. As the low deepens
and front shifts east, increasing ascent and strengthening
southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will
favor a transition to a linear/QLCS mode. Strong gusts will likely
be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will traverse the Southeast as a mid-level trough
overspreads the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). Surface high
pressure and associated cooler temperatures will linger over the
Appalachians and points east. Meanwhile, surface low development
over the southern Plains will promote a continued moistening
low-level airmass, along with appreciable rainfall accumulations
from showers and thunderstorms. As such, quiescent fire weather
conditions are expected across the CONUS on Friday.

..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the Plains as a mid-level trough
approaches from the west, and another upper trough progresses
further over the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will dominate
over the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with moist return
flow expected over the southern Plains given potential weak surface
low development. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are
expected CONUS wide. However, a dry low-level airmass will
overspread portions of the Southeast and the central High Plains,
supporting drying fuels and perhaps localized wildfire growth
potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas into far southwest Oklahoma.

...Texas and Oklahoma...

A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from
southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through
the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern
Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing
southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low
development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary
layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK.
Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across
western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid
moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization
is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE
values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with
weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into
central OK.

Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening,
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With
temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial
convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become
elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly
flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization.
Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel
lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk
with convection over western TX into far southwest OK, though a
couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are
surface-based. 

Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast
extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK.
A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the
nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse
rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026