
Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...parts of northeastern Arkansas....southeastern
Missouri...adjacent portions of western Kentucky and
Tennessee...southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022048Z - 022245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway and
probably will persist into early evening, with potential for
intensification which could be accompanied by at least the risk for
a tornado or two. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch
will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently been initiating
in a broken band north of Poplar Bluff MO toward the Carbondale IL
vicinity. This appears to be occurring along a corridor of better
low-level moisture return and weak developing surface pressure fall
axis, near the southern periphery of the mid-level cold pool
associated with negatively tilted short wave troughing progressing
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley.
Destabilization has been sufficient to support only weak mixed-layer
CAPE. This may not improve much through the remainder of the
afternoon, except perhaps across parts of northeastern Arkansas into
the Missouri Bootheel vicinity, based on latest Rapid Refresh
guidance. Even so, this appears focused along the southeastern
periphery of a strong southerly low-level jet axis, including 40-50
kt speeds around 850 mb. It appears possible that low-level
hodographs and thermodynamic profiles could become supportive of
supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes. However, the
extent of this potential remains unclear.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
LAT...LON 38328857 37558852 35189028 35039105 36719087 38388970
38328857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northwest IL...far northeast
MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...
Valid 022041Z - 022215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will spread
eastward through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has developed across parts of
central/southern IA and far northern MO, immediately in advance of
an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
surface low. A warm front extending eastward from the low continues
to move quickly northward, with ongoing storms expected to persist
as they move eastward across the warm sector.
Ahead of the primary broken line of storms, a supercell has recently
intensified near Ottumwa, IA, where 2-hour surface pressure falls
were maximized on the 20Z surface analysis. This supercell recently
produced 2-inch diameter hail. While surface winds south of the warm
front remain somewhat veered, strong flow just above the surface
(50+ kt at 1-2 km AGL per area VWPs) is supporting 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 200 m2/s2, sufficient to support a tornado threat with
this supercell and any other warm-sector supercell through the
afternoon. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
continue to be possible.
Farther southeast, convection is gradually increasing across far
northeast MO/southeast IA, and a supercell or two could evolve
within this region with time, with an attendant threat of all severe
hazards.
..Dean.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
40299322
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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Mesoscale Discussion 0333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...much of central and eastern Upper
Michigan...adjacent northeastern Wisconsin and portions of northern
Lower Michigan
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 021734Z - 022130Z
SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is likely to continue to
develop and overspread the region through 5-7 PM EDT, with primary
accrual on elevated surfaces and vegetation.
DISCUSSION...As a still sub-1000 mb surface cyclone continues to
migrate east-northeastward into and through portions of
southern/eastern Iowa this afternoon, a fairly sharp warm frontal
zone to its east-northeast is forecast to continue to surge
northward across Wisconsin and Michigan. This is likely to occur
near the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, with strong
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing
maintaining light and developing embedded bands of moderate
precipitation.
While surface temperatures near or just below 30F are likely to also
be maintained at least into late afternoon or early evening, model
forecast soundings indicate notable warming above freezing in a
deepening layer above the surface, northward through much of central
and eastern Upper Michigan by 21-23Z. As this occurs, precipitation
rates may support at least occasional hourly freezing rain accrual
in excess of .10 inches, perhaps up to .25 inches.
..Kerr.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 45178681 44948770 45388892 46308828 46828705 46538410
45548285 44678265 44718363 45378519 45178681
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CDJ TO 15 WNW OTM TO 25 WSW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 ..DEAN..04/02/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-037-057-063-067-071-073-085-089-093- 095-099-103-109-111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-149-155-161-169- 171-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-022140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS DE KALB FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN OGLE PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC007-011-019-031-045-051-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 89
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Northwest Illinois
Northern Missouri
Southern Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening across the watch area and track rapidly
northeastward. A few supercells capable of damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Janesville
WI to 55 miles south southeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. ...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI... Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near 60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional RAOBs. Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is the primary concern. The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/ ...IA/IL/MO/WI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating. The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue to show only widely scattered discrete development across this corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI... Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from southeast Texas into the Mid-South. ...Upper OH Valley and vicinity... A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area, but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a gradual weakening of convection expected overnight. ...Southeast TX to the Mid-South... Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and likely influences of morning convection suggest additional refinements are likely in later updates. ..Thompson.. 04/02/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Afternoon Update... Portions of the northern and eastern Elevated risk were trimmed from areas that saw appreciable rainfall in the last 48 hours. A dry cold front will push through the central/southern High Plains D2/Friday morning and afternoon, transporting a breezy post-frontal airmass southward. Behind the front, spotty 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly winds may overlap with RH below 20 percent. Given uncertainty in the intersection of strongest winds and low RH, critical highlights have been withheld, though localized critical fire weather conditions may occur in east-central CO and northwest KS. Farther south, a few hours of strong westerly downslope winds of 20+ mph (gusts up to 40 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are expected in portions of central/eastern CO, which supports the continuation of Critical fire weather highlights. Existing guidance ambivalence on timing of the cold front arrival and RH reduction behind the front enhances uncertainty in fire environment duration. However, due to the risk of significant wildfire spread with the passage of the cold front, these weather conditions should be closely monitored for both new ignitions and any ongoing wildfires. ...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California... A locally strong Santa Ana wind event will peak D2/Friday afternoon as north-northeasterly sustained winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 50 mph) and very low RH of 10-15 percent traverse southern NV, the Low/High Desert of CA, and the wind-prone areas surrounding the Los Angeles Metro. These conditions support locally elevated fire weather concerns for areas with drier fine fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this surface low will progress southward across the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/eastern New Mexico... High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as it could be problematic for fire spread. ...Central High Plains... Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this time, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California... A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells. ...Northern MO/southern IA area... A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence is low in the forecast details. ...Ozarks to northwest TX... Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night. ...Southwest TX... Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell structures. ..Thompson.. 04/02/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. ...IA/IL/MO/WI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating. The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue to show only widely scattered discrete development across this corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI... Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. ..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Morning Update... Parts of eastern CO and western KS experienced good overnight RH recoveries, though will quickly dry once again out this afternoon under peak heating and clear skies. In east-central NM, sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts 30+) are already being measured this morning. As the surface low develops east of the Rockies, combined surface lee troughing and gradient flow will support southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and coincident RH drops below 20 percent across much of the Elevated risk area. A confined region of Critical fire weather is expected in southeastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles where RH will drop below 15 percent as sustained westerly veering to southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph (gusts 35+) atop very dry fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High Plains. ...Central/southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief periods of critical conditions are also possible farther south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this time. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more