
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low/short-wave trough have advanced inland across interior CA early this evening. Earlier isolated thunderstorm activity, beneath this feature, has weakened and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/02/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Low amplitude ridging is expected to develop over the central US this weekend, with low amplitude ridging to quasi-zonal flow over much of the CONUS early to mid-next week. A jet will like likely extend east-northeast from off the southern California coast through the Colorado Rockies this weekend into early next week, which will increase downslope flow for portions of the southern/central Plains. While widespread precipitation is expected for the West Coast, much of the central US, especially the Plains, are likely to remain dry into mid-next week. Most of the Southeast will also receive little to no precipitation after Day 3/Saturday. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday: central/southern High Plains... Downslope flow will increase across the central High Plains on Day 4/Sunday as a westerly mid-level jet impinges on the central/southern Rockies. Elevated conditions are possible from southeast Wyoming into southern Colorado along and just east of the eastern slopes of the Rockies. However, current forecast guidance indicates misalignment of the strongest winds and lowest RH. Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding how far down the eastern slopes of the Rockies the stronger winds will extend. Despite recent precipitation, fuels remain historically dry for this time of year across portions of these areas. On Day 5/Monday, downslope flow and subsequent lee troughing will likely result in elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity as breezy west-southwest winds strengthen amid a dry airmass across portions of the southern High Plains. Forecast guidance indicates the possibility of elevated fire weather conditions continuing on Day 6/Monday in portions of west Texas extending into central/north Texas, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The potential for lighting flashes with low-topped convection across parts of southern CA has generally diminished, as a shortwave trough continues northeastward across northern/central CA this afternoon and evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures and modest daytime heating may still support sufficient MUCAPE for isolated thunderstorms across parts of central CA for a few more hours this afternoon, before this potential diminishes this evening. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/ ...California... A shortwave trough will continue to move inland along coastal north-central California early today, and toward the Sierra and other parts of Nevada late this afternoon into tonight. With minimal buoyancy noted in 12z observed soundings, convective potential will further diminish across far southern California coastal areas today via frontal passage. More immediately preceding the aforementioned shortwave trough, potential for a few low-topped thunderstorms will exist through the afternoon across the central Valley.Read more