
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great Plains. ...Portions of southeastern Wyoming... Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of 15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels. ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies ahead of a southward surging cold front. ...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle... Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire. Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the Palmer Divide this afternoon. ...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico... Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however, winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. ...Northern Plains into the Midwest... A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east, lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather concerns should remain localized. ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. ...Florida... A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Oklahoma/Northern Texas... Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below severe limits. ...Northern California/Southern Oregon... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon. The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could support a strong thunderstorm or two. ..Broyles.. 02/27/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast. ...Southeast/Florida... Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to warrant much risk of severe. As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates. ..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/27/2026Read more