SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.

..Halbert.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 20 07:21:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0105 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN


Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota...and
southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 200500Z - 201000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop/spread across northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin over the next several hours. Snow rates may
exceed 1 inch per hour at times.

DISCUSSION...Southwest-northeast oriented band of moderate-heavy
snow persists across IA late this evening. This band is expected to
spread/develop across northeast IA into southwest WI as the 700mb
low advances across eastern IA into southern WI by 12z. Latest
radar/satellite imagery suggest multiple heavier bands will begin to
coalesce along an axis from near ALO-PDC-VOK as the primary midlevel
circulation shifts east over the next few hours. While heavy snow
with rates around 1 inch per hour are expected, a very narrow zone
of mixed precipitation may exist along the eastern fringe of this
corridor briefly before transitioning to snow.

..Darrow.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43019271 43669143 44269029 43998980 42889077 42349218
            43019271

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses
across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and
breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will
result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma
Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with
southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a
variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile
ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any
ignitions during the afternoon.

..Halbert.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast
period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on
Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and
approaching northern stream trough. 

A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North
Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to
sea by Sunday morning.

Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should
persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and
surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal
heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing
segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear
present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany
any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during
the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity
to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish
during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few
showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026