MD 0550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262025Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for rapid severe thunderstorm development is
being monitored across western north TX and southwestern OK.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations show a trough/dryline
extending southwestward from near Lawton, OK to Haskell, TX. A
narrow, though deepening, cumulus field is apparent in visible
satellite imagery along this boundary. Very warm and moist surface
conditions are present ahead of this dryline, with temperatures in
the low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s yielding extreme
instability ~4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Although mid to upper-level ascent is
currently lacking, continued enhanced surface convergence along the
dryline, increasing westerly flow aloft through this evening, and a
colder pocket of mid to upper-level air may aid in convective
initiation before 6 PM as peak heating is reached.

In addition to the highly buoyant airmass in place, 50-55 kt of
orthogonal effective bulk shear will support discrete supercells and
a threat of very large hail and perhaps a tornado, especially if any
thunderstorm can remain near the convergence axis through this
evening as the LLJ intensifies (200-300 m2/s2 SRH). Conditions will
continued to be monitored for convective initiation, and a watch may
be needed if this occurs.

..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   34889847 34489866 33779925 33519955 33149961 32969958
            32929913 33049864 33349834 33659811 34119799 34479790
            34759787 35049808 34889847 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 0151 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0151 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 151 TORNADO OK TX 262055Z - 270400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Oklahoma
  Western North Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Initial storm development appears imminent near the Red
River, and a very unstable environment and stronger deep-layer winds
will support intense supercells capable of very large hail. Tornado
potential would also steadily increase into this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Fort Sill OK
to 60 miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26025.

...Guyer

WW 0150 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0150 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 150 TORNADO KS MO 262025Z - 270400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Kansas
  Western and Southwest Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of strong storms will continue to move
east-southeastward through late afternoon and early evening, with
the most intense storms on its southern flank. Additional
potentially supercellular development may occur ahead of the line
and to its south-southwest. Large hail and damaging winds will
remain common, and tornado potential should increase through early
evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Chanute KS to 45
miles north northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

...Guyer

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.

...20Z Update...
The forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The main
changes made to this outlook were to expand severe probabilities
farther to the east to account for an uptick in severe potential
later tonight, as depicted by some of the latest high-resolution
guidance.

Overall, uncertainties remain regarding precisely where the
strongest storms are going to occur. OK Mesonet data over the past
few hours have depicted some lowering of dewpoints in west-central
OK, with a slightly diminished CU field noted. However, several
guidance members depict supercellular development in the 02-06Z
period over northern OK, likely in part to the strengthening of a
low-level jet. Given impressive shear profiles and 8.5-9 C/km
mid-level lapse rates expected in this region overnight, it is
plausible that the strongest storms for the remainder of the period
(to 12Z Monday morning) may occur here, with 2+ inch diameter hail
and perhaps strong tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for
introducing higher tornado probabilities over northern OK is the
possible late storm initiation and associated boundary layer
stabilization, which may dampen the robustness of tornado production
with these storms.

Visible satellite imagery depicts more agitated CU centered over
Baylor County, TX, which may hint at locally higher/less conditional
severe threat across far north-central TX later this afternoon and
evening. However, synoptic forcing is weak, and if storms form, they
will likely be sparse, precluding the addition of higher severe
probabilities in this region at this time.

..Squitieri.. 04/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk. 

Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.

WW 0149 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 149

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549

..DEAN..04/26/26

ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 149 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC001-003-005-013-015-017-027-031-041-043-045-049-059-061-073-
085-087-091-099-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-131-133-139-143-
149-161-177-197-201-205-207-209-262040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                ANDERSON            ATCHISON            
BROWN                BUTLER              CHASE               
CLAY                 COFFEY              DICKINSON           
DONIPHAN             DOUGLAS             ELK                 
FRANKLIN             GEARY               GREENWOOD           
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JOHNSON             
LABETTE              LEAVENWORTH         LINN                
LYON                 MARION              MARSHALL            
MIAMI                MONTGOMERY          MORRIS              
NEMAHA               NEOSHO              OSAGE               
OTTAWA               POTTAWATOMIE        RILEY               
SHAWNEE              WABAUNSEE           WASHINGTON          
WILSON               WOODSON             WYANDOTTE           


MOC013-021-037-047-049-095-165-262040-

WW 149 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 261710Z - 270000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Kansas
  Western Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to further develop near
a boundary and probably become more surface-based over time, with
large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Manhattan KS to 30 miles east southeast of Kansas City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS...

...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.

..Williams.. 04/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX. 

Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO 
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western Texas.

...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay
vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will
develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east. 

The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast.
It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the
Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley
through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher
probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.

Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front. 

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.

...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).

A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible. 

As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.

...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk. 

Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.

..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/26/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...
A stalled frontal boundary across northwest TX and the TX Panhandle
introduced extensive cloud cover and much higher relative humidity
north of the boundary overnight. Current satellite and surface
observation trends show a gradual erosion of the cloud cover across
southern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Latest short term model
guidance suggests a limited northeastward extent and onset of the
overall fire weather threat as a warm front evolves this afternoon.
This should restrict duration and northeast extent of fire-effective
weather conditions across the northeastern TX and adjacent OK
Panhandles. Thus, critical and elevated highlights have been trimmed
across portions of western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles for this
forecast update.

Extremely Critical fire weather conditions, including southwest
winds of 30-40 mph, with localized gusts near 60 mph, are still
expected across portions the southern High Plains today. The winds,
aided by an intense mid-level jet and associated lee surface cyclone
development across southeastern CO, will combine with surface RH
reductions of 10-20% to promote an extremely critical fire weather
threat across portions of eastern NM into far western TX Panhandle
this afternoon. A broader critical fire weather concern is still
expected across much of the southern High Plains into central and
southern NM, with no additional highlight changes.

..Williams.. 04/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.

A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.

Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...