SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 9 10:42:02 UTC 2026
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 04:41:06 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 9 10:42:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Feb 9 10:42:02 UTC 2026
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 04:41:05 AM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 9 10:42:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Feb 9, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 03:27:53 AM CST
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.

Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the
aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 01:50:25 AM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough
progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow
(Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold
front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through
the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a
relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the
Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Feb 9, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 01:44:56 AM CST
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper level ridge will develop east from the Rockies into the
Plains on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough weakens as it moves
from TX to over the Gulf. Thunderstorm potential appears low given a
generally stable airmass across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS.
Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will overspread the western
U.S. Cooling aloft and midlevel moistening may be sufficient for a
couple of lightning flashes across the Great Basin vicinity as the
upper trough impinges on the region, but overall thunderstorm
potential is expected to be minimal.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Mon, 09 Feb 2026 at 01:16:26 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
will foster wildfire-spread potential.

...Central High Plains...
Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
wildfire spread.

...Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
maintained.

..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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