Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs, including one within the southern stream over northern Mexico and another moving into Ohio Valley within the base of a large cyclone centered over the northern Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Recent surface analysis places a weak front from Deep South Texas northeastward through the western Gulf and central Plaquemines Parish, continuing through the north-central Gulf and across northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of the front and downstream of the northern Mexico shortwave from the Texas Hill County eastward to the Upper Texas Coast. Thermodynamic conditions across these region are expected to remain largely unchanged throughout much of the day, with modest elevated instability persisting amid the moist southwesterly mid-level flow. Some modest increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the shortwave trough continues eastward through TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. An attendant increase in large-scale ascent is expected as well. Resulting increase in the deep-layer shear could result in slightly more organized storm structures and greater overall storm intensity this afternoon despite numerous preceding showers and thunderstorms, and little change in the overall thermodynamics. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the strongest storms. A surface low is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough over the western Gulf, before then tracking quickly northeastward as the shortwave continues eastward. This low will likely be just off the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday, and off of southern Plaquemines Parish by 06Z. Elevated thunderstorms are expected across the Lower MS Valley amid a combination of warm-air advection and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. The strongest storms may be capable of producing small hail. The surface low may also track far enough north for the warm sector to advect into the near-coastal regions of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western/central Florida Panhandle. If this occurs, surface-based storms could develop, enhancing the potential for damaging gusts as well as introducing a low-probability tornado risk. ..Mosier/Dean.. 05/01/2026Read more