MD 0097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL VICINITY


Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...east-central MO into west-central IL vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191644Z - 191815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may gradually increase in intensity over
the next couple hours. Some small to marginally severe hail could
accompany stronger cells in the short-term.

DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated convection is persisting late this
morning as storms approach the Mississippi River near the St. Louis
Metro vicinity. These storms are occurring within warm advection in
the vicinity of a warm front ahead of a shortwave impulse across
southwest MO. Morning regional RAOBs show steep midlevel lapse
rates, aided by cold temperatures aloft. While the boundary layer
continues to moisten with time and eastward extent, instability will
gradually increase. These storms will move into the improving
thermodynamic environment downstream across IL. Given favorable
vertical shear supporting organized convection, some gradual
increase in intensity/organization is possible as convection spreads
into west-central IL through midday, and isolated small to
marginally severe hail is possible. The overall magnitude of the
risk should remain limited over the MCD area, and a watch is not
anticipated for this initial convection. Subsequent MCDs will
address the expected downstream severe risk across southern/central
IL/IN later this afternoon.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38779124 39189127 39439103 39589055 39529018 39388979
            39158946 38828932 38468935 38138946 37968986 38039046
            38289102 38489110 38779124 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Morning Update...
Critical highlights were shifted farther south into the Red River
Valley and North Texas for the Day 1 update. Poor overnight moisture
recovery across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma combined with
west-northwesterly 20-25 mph winds (30-40 mph gusts) and 10-15
percent RH by peak heating will promote Critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and evening. The observed OUN sounding
portrayed 50 knot winds just above the surface, so as daytime mixing
occurs, the region could see stronger localized wind gusts. A cold
front will pass over the Oklahoma Panhandle/NW Oklahoma late this
morning and afternoon gradually shifting winds northerly, bringing
in cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints leading to a reprieve in
fire weather conditions. Elevated highlights have also been extended
across Eastern New Mexico to account for observed westerly downslope
winds of 20-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH atop receptive fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a
broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains
today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains
toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of
dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow
driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy
conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas
Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained
west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at
least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been
maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will
overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into
Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the
past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced
dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to
wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds
should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH,
warranting Elevated highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon. 

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving
thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells. 

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central
Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/19/2026

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through
early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
evening.

...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026