SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region.
Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly
surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated
fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE,
and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and
temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front.

Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee
troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally
dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and
Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM.

..Weinman.. 01/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 07:51:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 07:51:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja
will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on
Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly
mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front
plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place
ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal
Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the
midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even
accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to
filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on
Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of
south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern
FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure
over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could
develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous
large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm
potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore,
but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited,
precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold
and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening.

...DISCUSSION...
A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the
U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the
south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today.
Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However,
no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026