SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...Central High Plains...
An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest
flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of
the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest
surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday.
Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights
across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE
and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO
Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced
drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10
percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph
and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions
for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally
critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop
in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced
across portions of south-central CO.

..Williams.. 01/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.

This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 19 19:55:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0028 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK


Mesoscale Discussion 0028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Areas affected...Pennsylvania into western New York

Concerning...Snow Squall 

Valid 191650Z - 192045Z

SUMMARY...Occasional visibility reductions associated with
moderate/heavy snow showers and gusty winds may spread east across
parts of Pennsylvania and into western New York through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of snow showers migrating across eastern OH
and western PA over the past few hours have yielded occasional
visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile per regional web cams and
ASOS observations. These visibility reductions are largely being
driven by moderate to heavy snowfall rates within shallow, but
convectively augmented, snow showers ahead of a progressive
mid-level wave evident in GOES imagery. Strong cold advection
through 850 mb will continue to support 25-35 mph wind gusts, which
will further contribute to periods of low visibility by blowing
falling snow and the antecedent snow pack in place across western
PA. As such, periods of snow squall conditions should spread
east/northeast through mid-afternoon in tandem with the upper wave
and the surging low-level cold air mass.

..Moore.. 01/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40088011 40158059 40468072 41068072 41588055 41898026
            42797841 42867780 42807704 42447635 42117596 41627592
            41247586 40767613 40477662 40088011

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
No changes.

..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/

...Discussion...
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be
hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will
generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North
America during this period.  However, it appears that the southern
tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing
influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to
subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific.

Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing
mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern
California/northern Baja Pacific coast.  It appears that this may be
accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower
latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra
Nevada.  However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better
boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic
profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development,
will likely remain offshore through at least this period.

Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to
overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night.  It appears
that weak  boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of
thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of
an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern
Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas.  However, elevated
inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become
sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through
Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath
large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America
(across and east of the Rockies).  While little change in amplitude
is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an
initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening.  As a
developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of
this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it
appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical
eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central
Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex...
It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing
lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late
Tuesday through Tuesday night.  This is likely to mainly emanate
from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a
modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels.  While
forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing
layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to
negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection
capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas
coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Florida Panhandle...
Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph
(15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the
20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the
western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However,
cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a
more significant fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 01/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The
one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL,
where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon.
A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds
and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather
conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be
hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026