
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the western Atlantic. While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes. The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025Read more