
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week. ...D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains... The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening. ...D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley... Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon. The primary hazard will be severe gusts, but a tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it accelerates northeastward towards the upper MS Valley in tandem with an upper trough through the day Thursday. Residual thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Ozarks and will track northeast within a strengthening wind field. Re-intensification appears likely by mid-afternoon from lower MI southwestward into IL and IN. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along a trailing cold front across the mid-MS Valley through the afternoon. Elsewhere, more loosely organized convection is expected across the lower MS Valley and along the Appalachians. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A combination of northward moisture advection and diurnal heating will likely support a re-intensification of residual convection emanating out of MO by mid-afternoon. Winds through the 925-850 mb layer are forecast to increase to 45-55 knots through the day, which will support organized convective lines with an attendant threat for damaging/severe gusts. Additionally, forecast soundings generally depict strong veering above 1 km AGL, which coupled with hodograph elongation through the lowest 1-3 km, will support effective SRH values on the order of 250-350 m2/s2 and a tornado threat with the more intense/robust lines. That said, the degree of destabilization ahead of this activity remains uncertain with guidance generally depicting MLCAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg. While somewhat meager, the strong flow fields will likely compensate and support a severe wind threat. 15% probabilities were introduced from eastern IL northeastward into MI where confidence in the overlap of strong low-level flow and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg is highest. Further to the west, additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the primary synoptic cold front across the mid/upper MS Valley. As with the activity further east, this convection will develop within a modestly buoyant, but strongly sheared environment that should favor a damaging wind threat. Confidence in destabilization is somewhat more limited owing to uncertainty on how quickly early-morning showers/thunderstorms will exit the region and allow for adequate diurnal destabilization. ..Moore.. 03/31/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in rapid surface low development across the central Plains. Strong gradient flow will support widespread 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds west of a dryline. While Critical highlights were considered, widespread cloudiness will dampen boundary-layer mixing to a degree, with RH expected to stay above Critical thresholds (i.e. 20-25 percent RH). Given the presence of dry fuels and stronger winds, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development along the TX Panhandle/OK border. Dry downslope flow will occur along the southern High Plains, resulting 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent RH, warranting Elevated highlights. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may also develop ahead of a frontal boundary atop a dry boundary layer and receptive fuels. Given the potential for lightning induced ignitions with these storms, as well as the potential for ignition exacerbation from erratic thunderstorm wind gusts, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints (already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins to eject during the early evening hours. ...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas... Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening). Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri... Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours - likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1 km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants an expansion of probabilities. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 03/31/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected today into this evening across parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. Isolated severe storms may also occur from the mid to upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the southern and central Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes today, as a more subtle shortwave trough moves through the Midwest. At the surface, a low will move into Lower Michigan as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a cluster of storms is expected to move eastward through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the morning, reaching Lower Michigan by midday. To the south of this cluster of storms, surface heating with dewpoints of 55 to 60 F will contribute to a broad area of instability. An outflow boundary appears likely to move into northern Indiana and northern Ohio around midday, where scattered convective initiation should take place in the early afternoon. These storms are forecast to move eastward into the central Appalachians during the mid to late afternoon, with additional storms forming further west across northern Missouri and central Illinois. As cells gradually increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, MCS development will be possible. The greatest chance for severe storms appears likely to occur this afternoon and evening from far northeast Illinois eastward into western New York and northern Pennsylvania. Along much of this east-to-west corridor, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will also increase across the Midwest as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the jet, lift and shear will be sufficiently strong for organized storms. Supercells and short multicell line segments, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected from mid afternoon into the evening. Increasing cell coverage could result in a somewhat larger severe line segment, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Further west into the lower Missouri Valley, isolated severe storms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and early evening. This area will be located further from the mid-level jet, which will make deep-layer shear and low-level flow a bit weaker. For this reason, the severe threat is expected to remain more localized. ...Southern and Central Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the southern and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Texas Panhandle extending northeastward into southern and eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 55 to 60 F range will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE rising into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. As low-level convergence increases along and to the south of the front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis late this afternoon have large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions with very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will result in high-based storms that could be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail. The threat should persist into the evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/31/2026Read more