
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic. Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period. To the southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin, downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West. Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin. At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and across much of the remainder of the U.S. ...Florida... It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening. ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US, with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains. The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast. This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening. It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor. At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Mean long-wave trough is expected to remain centered across the eastern Plains/MS Valley through the day1 period. Negligible height changes are expected across lower latitudes which will result in a synoptic front oscillating across the northern/central FL Peninsula. This boundary will serve as the primary focus for the potential for isolated thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance is not particularly aggressive in air mass destabilization across the Peninsula, but showers and a few thunderstorms should develop along/north of the boundary as deep westerly flow provides weak lift atop the frontal zone. While deep-layer shear is strong, weak buoyancy and poor lapse rates do not support robust or organized severe updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2025Read more