
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week, when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe threat.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears very low. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period. Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025Read more