
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning. ...Southern CA... A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of southern CA toward the San Joaquin Valley through the day, before dampening somewhat as it approaches the Great Basin during the evening. The strongest DCVA and cooling aloft will generally be displaced north of the most favorable low-level moisture, but some thunderstorm potential will continue to accompany this system for at least the first part of the day. The greatest relative potential for surface-based convection appears to be across immediate coastal areas of southern CA and adjacent offshore regions, where surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the low 60s F. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong, but 30-40 kt of 700 mb flow and modest enlargement of low-level hodographs could support potential for weakly rotating storms. While confidence in sufficiently robust convection is not high, locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger cells near the coast, primarily during the morning. ..Dean.. 12/31/2025Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Elevated highlights were removed for portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle as light winds less than 10 mph and marginal fuel dryness limits a broader fire weather threat for this area. Elevated highlights continue for the eastern FL Peninsula, much of GA and the Carolinas as dry conditions with RH falling as low as 20-25 percent this afternoon amid a dry continental air mass. See previous discussion for more details. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Dry, downslope flow continues across the southern and central High Plains, supporting low relative humidity in the 15-25% range this afternoon within the region. However, relatively weak northwest flow aloft and a diffuse surface pressure gradient will present a more localized elevated fire weather threat just leeward of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 15 mph and RH dropping to around 15% are expected, but marginal fuel dryness should limit a more substantial wildfire potential. ..Williams.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress south-southeastward while amplifying over the Northeast today, supporting surface troughing along the East Coast as surface high pressure overspreads the Midwest. Dry offshore flow should occur by afternoon peak heating from the Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula. 10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH will encourage localized wildfire-spread potential amid dry fuels, with Elevated highlights remaining in place. Surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage breezy downslope conditions along the central and southern High Plains, though RH appears too high for Elevated conditions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With upper ridging remaining prominent over the western CONUS and upper troughing centered across the eastern states, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal though tonight for a large majority of the CONUS. One exception will be across parts of southern CA late tonight into early Thursday morning, as an upper trough/low over the eastern Pacific gradually approaches the CA Coast by the end of the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, increasing large-scale ascent and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures preceding the upper trough/low may still support isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, mainly after 01/06Z. Both MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear too weak to support a meaningful threat for organized severe thunderstorms through the end of the period (12Z Thursday morning). ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/31/2025Read more