MD 0436 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 109... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN


Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

Valid 150132Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado risk will focus on northern Illinois with QLCS
circulations still possible farther north. Damaging wind potential
will be greatest with linear storm modes.

DISCUSSION...The strongest activity in WW 109 exists in northern
Illinois. With the low-level jet focusing in this area (50+ kts
noted on KDVN and KLOT VAD), moist inflow and strong low-level shear
will support a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong) as well as
damaging winds and isolated large hail. Storm interactions have thus
far limited how organized low-level mesocyclones have become, but
the environment is quite favorable.

In southeast Wisconsin, convection has been much more linear. A line
segment moving toward Milwaukee is favorably oriented with the deep
layer shear vector. Damaging winds are still possible, but the
impacts of earlier supercell outflow may modulate this threat to
some extent. The KMKX VAD still shows sufficient low-level shear
that QLCS circulations may also occur at the leading edge of the
convective line.

..Wendt.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42119019 42299015 42418997 42498954 42558927 42698900
            43168829 43088785 42698776 42198779 42098832 42119019 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0435 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 110... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KS


Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Texas to southern KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

Valid 150053Z - 150230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

SUMMARY...The stronger storms with wind/hail are expected from
northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma through 02z, while more
isolated storm development could occur along the retreating dryline
into south central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection and rain-cooled air, in addition
to messy convective modes and storm interference, have largely
limited the severe threat to occasional severe gusts and isolated
large hail this evening from northwest TX into southwest OK.  There
will still be the potential for additional severe storms along the
edge of the rain-cooled air along the I-44 corridor near and
northeast of Wichita Falls through 02z.  The 00z OUN and FWD
soundings still show weak convective inhibition which will increase
slowly this evening with gradual surface cooling.  Still, lingering
moderate buoyancy and a modest increase in low-level shear through
late evening could support a supercell and conditional tornado
threat along the rain-cooled boundary.  Otherwise, damaging winds
and isolated large hail will be the main threats.

The presence of persistent anvil rain casts doubt on the short-term
severe threat north of I-44 into central OK.  Farther north, there
have been recent attempts at deep convection along the retreating
dryline near the OK/KS border, though the persistence of this
convection is in question.  If a sustained storm does manage to form
into southern KS, the environment will favor isolated large hail and
a conditional tornado threat.

..Thompson.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   34729725 34199767 33949814 33749873 33819897 34359904
            34689845 35069821 35739839 37069862 37649815 38009753
            37959715 37489703 36529727 35829709 35069712 34729725 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA


Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
Missouri...Southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150028Z - 150230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur
along a cold front sagging into parts of NE/KS/IA/MO.  A few severe
thunderstorms may occur with large hail being the main concern.  A
watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging
southward across parts of NE/IA.  Meanwhile, strengthening
southwesterly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture
northward, with 60s dewpoints now as far north as northern
MO/central KS.  The leading edge of the richer moisture is expected
to begin interacting with the approaching cold front in the next
couple of hours, leading to rapid thunderstorm development. 
Sufficient shear profiles will promote a risk of organized multicell
and occasional supercell structures, capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.  A
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon for this activity.

..Hart.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39979789 40999551 41479305 41249224 40669221 40359314
            39799544 39479698 39369767 39629799 39979789 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 0111 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 111

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT TO
20 ENE JCT.

..THOMPSON..04/15/26

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...EWX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC137-267-271-465-150240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

EDWARDS              KIMBLE              KINNEY              
VAL VERDE            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 111 SEVERE TSTM TX 142045Z - 150400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  West and West-Central Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very
large hail this afternoon and evening, with peak hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter possible. Isolated severe gusts may also
occur, along with a tornado or two.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northwest
of Abilene TX to 30 miles west of Del Rio TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...WW 109...WW 110...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24030.

...Gleason

WW 0110 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 110

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SPS
TO 20 NW SPS TO 20 WNW FSI TO 5 WSW OKC TO 25 W PNC TO 20 SE P28.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435

..THOMPSON..04/15/26

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 110 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC001-015-017-019-035-049-073-077-079-099-115-125-133-173-191-
205-207-150240-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                BUTLER              CHASE               
CHAUTAUQUA           COWLEY              ELK                 
GREENWOOD            HARPER              HARVEY              
LABETTE              MARION              MONTGOMERY          
NEOSHO               SEDGWICK            SUMNER              
WILSON               WOODSON             


OKC027-031-033-037-049-051-067-071-081-083-087-103-105-109-113-
117-119-125-137-147-150240-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLEVELAND            COMANCHE            COTTON              
CREEK                GARVIN              GRADY               
JEFFERSON            KAY                 LINCOLN

WW 110 TORNADO KS OK TX 142020Z - 150400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  South-Central and Southeast Kansas
  Western, Central, and Northern Oklahoma
  Western North Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Supercells that develop this afternoon and evening will
likely pose a threat for large to very large hail initially. With
time this evening, the threat for a few tornadoes should gradually
increase with any thunderstorms that can remain at least
semi-discrete. Scattered severe/damaging winds may also occur with
any clusters that can eventually form and spread northeastward
through the evening. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX
to 55 miles west northwest of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...WW 109...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Gleason

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the southern
Plains into the Midwest. Large hail, several tornadoes (some
strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely,
particularly from eastern Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
Scattered discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across
eastern Iowa, far northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin along a
diffuse warm frontal zone stretching eastward from weak surface low
analyzed over eastern NE/western IA. The primary severe risk through
the overnight hours will be associated with this activity as it
spreads southeast through early morning. Further south across the
central/southern Plains, poorly organized convection casts
uncertainty in the nocturnal severe threat; however, a favorable
environment will remain in place through Wednesday morning and could
support severe convection. 

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
01 UTC regional radar mosaics show semi-discrete supercells ongoing
across far eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI with the early
stages of upscale growth evident as storms interactions increase.
This trend will continue through the overnight hours as this
activity propagates east/southeast into lower MI and northern IN.
The recent 00z DVN RAOB sampled a convective environment highly
favorable for organized convection, which will maintain the
potential for significant hail and tornadoes in the near term (most
likely through 03 UTC) before a full transition to a linear mode
takes place. Once this transition occurs, severe winds (including
the potential for significant gusts in excess of 75 mph) and
embedded circulations appear probable for areas downstream. 

...Southern Iowa into Kansas...
Thunderstorm development along a southward sagging cold front is
anticipated in the coming hours across northeast KS into southern
IA. Regional soundings sampled adequate buoyancy and strong
deep-layer wind shear (around 50 knots) that will likely support
organized convection along the front for a few hours. Storm motions
along the boundary may foster clustering/upscale growth, but a
severe wind, hail, and perhaps tornado threat is expected to
materialize through the night.

...Oklahoma into Texas...
Convective evolution thus far across western OK into northwest TX
has been relatively lackluster given the otherwise buoyant and
strongly sheared environment sampled by the 00z OUN sounding. This
is likely due to expansive convective outflows resulting in
undercutting and clustered storm modes as well as the presence of a
subsidence inversion (also noted in the 00z sounding). It remains
unclear whether or not this activity will be able to re-intensify
through the late evening hours given. However, strengthening flow
fields through 06 UTC may support some degree of improved
organization and a more robust severe threat. This potential is
hinted by recent HRRR solutions, but overall confidence is limited.
Based on these trends, opted to remove the 30% hail/wind
probabilities given low confidence in severe coverage. Further south
into western TX, attempts at sustained convection have been noted
over the past hour along the dryline, but downstream inhibition may
limit overall storm coverage.

..Moore.. 04/15/2026

WW 0113 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0113 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 113 TORNADO IN MI LE LH LM 150055Z - 150800Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
855 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Indiana
  Central and Southern Lower Michigan
  Lake Erie
  Lake Huron
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 855 PM
  until 400 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Lines and clusters of intense thunderstorms over Wisconsin
and Lake Michigan will track eastward across the watch area through
evening and overnight, posing risks of large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Muskegon MI to 20
miles east of Mount Clemens MI. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...WW 109...WW
110...WW 111...WW 112...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.

...Hart

WW 109 TORNADO IA IL MN WI LM 141930Z - 150300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Iowa
  Northern Illinois
  Extreme Southeast Minnesota
  Southern Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for very large
to giant hail this afternoon and evening as they track eastward,
with the largest hailstones potentially reaching up to 3-4 inches in
diameter. The threat for several tornadoes will increase later this
afternoon and evening along a warm front, and any sustained
supercell will be capable of producing a strong tornado. Otherwise,
scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds may eventually occur as
thunderstorms consolidate into one or more bowing clusters, with
peak gusts up to 65-75 mph.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Waterloo
IA to 20 miles north northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.

...Gleason

WW 0109 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 109

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BRL TO
30 SSW DBQ TO 30 NW DBQ TO 25 SE LNR TO 25 NNE MSN TO 10 SW GRB.

..WENDT..04/15/26

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...LOT...GRB...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC007-015-037-073-085-089-097-103-111-141-161-177-195-201-
150140-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE                CARROLL             DE KALB             
HENRY                JO DAVIESS          KANE                
LAKE                 LEE                 MCHENRY             
OGLE                 ROCK ISLAND         STEPHENSON          
WHITESIDE            WINNEBAGO           


IAC045-061-097-163-150140-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLINTON              DUBUQUE             JACKSON             
SCOTT                


WIC015-025-027-039-045-055-059-065-071-079-089-101-105-117-127-
131-133-150140-

WW 0108 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 108

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ELM
TO BGM TO 30 WSW ALB TO 20 ESE ALB TO 35 W EEN TO 20 N EEN TO 25
SSE LEB.

..WENDT..04/14/26

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

CTC005-142340-

CT 
.    CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LITCHFIELD           


MAC003-142340-

MA 
.    MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE            


NYC007-021-025-027-039-105-107-111-142340-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOME               COLUMBIA            DELAWARE            
DUTCHESS             GREENE              SULLIVAN            
TIOGA                ULSTER

WW 0112 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 112

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW LUK
TO 20 NNW MIE TO 45 SSW JXN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429

..WENDT..04/14/26

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC001-009-035-041-047-065-075-135-161-177-179-150040-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BLACKFORD           DELAWARE            
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            HENRY               
JAY                  RANDOLPH            UNION               
WAYNE                WELLS               


OHC003-011-037-107-109-113-135-137-149-161-150040-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                AUGLAIZE            DARKE               
MERCER               MIAMI               MONTGOMERY          
PREBLE               PUTNAM              SHELBY              
VAN WERT             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a
continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day
3/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather threat is expected on Day
4/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S.
Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry
fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering
fire weather threat across this region. Towards the end of the
forecast period, another deep trough will approach western CONUS.
While extended model discrepancy exists, fire weather concerns will
likely continue next week in regions that have seen minimal
precipitation.

...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Thursday through
Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee
surface troughing will support a continued fire weather threat as
dry and breezy southwesterly surface flow extends into the
upper-central High Plains. Southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph combined
with RH hovering around 15 percent are expected across portions of
the southern Plains, with 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions maintained. North of a region of forecast precipitation
on Day 1/Tuesday - Day 2/Wednesday, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced across eastern WY, southern SD, and northern NE.
This is to account for 15-25 percent RH and southwesterly winds of
15-20 mph atop drying fuels. However, increasing mid/high level
clouds may dampen the bimodal fire environment to some extent,
precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this
time.

A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
central CONUS by Day 4/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
and deepening surface cyclone across the central Plains will aid in
stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Friday across
much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West
Texas where extended guidance agreement portrays combined
probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph
winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further
exacerbate the fire environment.

On Day 5/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 6/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.

...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont - Day 3/Thursday through Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, a leading shortwave will aid in the breakdown of
the upper ridge across the East Coast. However, precipitation
chances are minimal east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, maintaining
dry conditions. Southwesterly winds of up to 10 mph and 25-35
percent RH atop receptive fuels support the introduction of 40%
Critical probabilities across the region. As the East Coast upper
ridge breaks down ahead of the deepening upper trough over the High
Plains on Day 4/Friday, the potential for a downslope wind event
exists in the lee of the Appalachians. Strong west/northwesterly
winds will traverse the Blue Ridge Mountains allowing for surface RH
to drop as surface winds increase along the Piedmont, promoting the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 5/Saturday, dry
southwesterly flow returns to the Piedmont and broader Southeast as
the surface low enters southern Ontario. With no expected
precipitation across the region, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced where dry and breezy conditions continue atop dry
fuels. Chances for precipitation increase on Day 6/Sunday as the
upper trough moves overhead, which could alleviate broader fire
concerns. However, the extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain,
precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...