Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the primary concern with these storms through early evening. ..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026Read more