Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... A large-scale trough over the East Coast and broad/expansive upper ridge over the West will maintain dry and stable conditions across the CONUS. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ..Weinman.. 02/24/2026Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through the extended forecast period. The predominant pattern will feature troughing over the eastern US while strong mid-level flow continues across the central US. Amplified ridging over the West will support strong downslope flow and lee troughing over the Southern and Central High Plains. This pattern will aid continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions through the forecast period. ...Day 3/Wednesday - Southern Plains and Southeastern Colorado... Fire weather conditions are expected to continue as a lee surface low moves southeast across the Central Plains amid northwesterly flow. Strong mid-level flow aloft will support broad downslope northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph and RH values below 20% , so 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained. 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced where a localized area in southeastern NM may experience stronger northwesterly downslope surface winds of 20-30 mph atop dry, receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Thursday - South Central Texas... As the surface low continues to shift south towards the Texas Gulf Coast, a weak dry cold front will pass through South Central Texas late morning/afternoon bringing dry and breezy northerly surface winds. With low humidity and warm surface temperatures across the area on Day 3/Wednesday, fine fuels will likely have dried out some, leading to potential receptiveness to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for fire weather concerns. Beneath strong mid-level flow, tight surface pressure gradients across central Wyoming may support strong downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Laramie Range into far western Nebraska on Day 4/Thursday and Day 5/Friday. However, with the potential for light rainfall across the area on Day 3/Wednesday, fire weather highlights have been withheld for now. Model spread increases on Day 5/Friday through the remainder of the forecast period regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions. Nonetheless, as the mid/upper-level pattern persists, fire weather conditions will likely continue across portions of the Central and Southern High Plains into the weekend. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more