
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation. ...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells. A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push northward toward Lower Michigan. ... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ... As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front. Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline. However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm mode evolution. If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode, uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent forecasts. ... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan ... Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone. ... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest Texas... Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear segments. ... Southwest Texas ... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk. ..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface low will transition northeastward across the Great Lakes region on D2/Saturday while upper-level ridging builds across the West. A trailing cold front will progress eastward across portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and southward across southern Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains behind this front. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time. ...Portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into Southern New Mexico... Latest high-res guidance suggests that sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph along the southern periphery of the aforementioned surface high may briefly overlap reduced RH values of 15-20% Saturday afternoon to promote locally elevated fire weather concerns from the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained surface winds of 15+ mph and RH values below 20% as well as the potential for light precipitation on D1/Friday across Texas. Trends will continue to be monitored for future outlooks. ..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland. ...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern Maryland... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina, far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be steepest. ..Broyles.. 04/03/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing cold front progressing southward across the central and southern High Plains through the period. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph) along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at least a few hours this afternoon. A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local wind enhancements. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains, supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado (where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range, sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low RH of 10-20%. ...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California... A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph) and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine fuels. ..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more