Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas. ...Southwest and South-central Texas... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening. Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000 meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the area should be confined to a small area in southwest and south-central Texas. ..Broyles.. 05/01/2026Read more
