Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail possible across portions of Texas. ...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to 2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into the lower MS Valley. Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX (with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts of TX to southern AL with this update. ...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC). Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could also support a brief tornado. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026Read more
