
Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the TX/OK Panhandles...western into
north-central OK...south-central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040527Z - 040800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and perhaps locally
gusty winds are possible overnight.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed across parts
of the TX Panhandle, with increasing midlevel cumulus noted into far
northwest OK. A further increase in elevated convection is expected
with time overnight, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently
over the central/southern Rockies begins to impinge upon a reservoir
of moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg).
Steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in regional 00Z soundings) and
strong mid/upper-level flow (with effective shear of near/above 40
kt) are favorable for organized elevated storms with large hail,
potentially into the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range. However, recent
CAM guidance generally depicts a transition to a cluster or linear
mode with time, which could temper the magnitude and coverage of the
hail threat to some extent. Also, despite a substantial cool/stable
near-surface layer to the north of an advancing cold front, locally
gusty surface winds cannot be ruled out if any substantial
clustering or upscale growth occurs.
..Dean/Mosier.. 03/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34269994 34520122 34620239 35670160 36210088 37469902
37749750 37659652 37449606 36889643 36329688 35229797
34289978 34269994
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two will be possible. ...Southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley today and tonight. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains to the OH Valley. Height falls will remain modest with this system, resulting in on a weak surface wave migrating northeast along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone/surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of the front, southerly return flow will support dewpoints climbing into the low 60s F. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will foster MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg (possibly higher toward North TX where stronger heating is expecting). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized convection. However, storm mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad ascent within the warm advection regime near the surface boundary. Additionally, morning convection and cloudiness could hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization. Nevertheless, a broad area of severe storm potential exists. First with elevated convection this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into MO and southern IL. By afternoon, surface-based convection will be more likely closer to the surface front. A mix of supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, some wind damaging potential will also materialize within steepened low-level lapse rates. A low-end tornado risk will also accompany supercells near the surface boundary, especially where stronger heating can occur. ..Leitman/Chalmers.. 03/04/2026Read more