MD 0158 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 16...19... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN IOWA


Mesoscale Discussion 0158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northern Missouri and eastern
Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 16...19...

Valid 070343Z - 070545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 16, 19 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado,
persists across portions of WW 16 and WW 19 from northeast Kansas
into northern Missouri and portions of eastern Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts most of the
ongoing convection across northeast KS and into western IA being
undercut by a strong cold front. Despite this, GOES IR imagery has
shown a few stronger updrafts developing over the past 30 minutes
along the post-frontal convective line, and cooling cloud-top
temperatures are noted with pre-frontal convection across
central/eastern IA as well. While much of this activity is elevated
in nature, it remains in a conditionally favorable environment for
severe convection with MUCAPE remaining near 1500 J/kg and effective
bulk shear near 50 knots. This will continue to support some
potential for organized deep convection capable of producing
sporadic large hail and perhaps damaging winds. Latest guidance
hints that ongoing warm advection ahead of the front may support
additional thunderstorms in the coming hours - particularly from
northern MO into southern IA. If such convection emerges, the
favorably sheared environment may support some tornado threat,
though this potential is uncertain given no signs of imminent
surface-based development within the pre-frontal regime.

..Moore.. 03/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39429616 39929557 42549320 42649240 42639178 42419142
            42059134 41649150 40979201 40389280 39719375 39109498
            38939563 38949589 38969613 39169630 39429616 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 0021 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0021 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 21 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 070425Z - 071200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 21
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  West-Central Illinois
  East-Central Missouri

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1025 PM
  until 600 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Squall line is slowly maturing across central Missouri.
Damaging winds may become more common with this line of storms as it
surges across east-central Missouri early this morning. A tornado or
two can not be ruled out, though damaging winds are the primary
concern.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southwest
of Scott Afb IL to 60 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19...WW 20...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Darrow

WW 0019 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 19

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W DSM TO
35 NE ALO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158

..MOORE..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC161-070440-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ROCK ISLAND          


IAC007-011-013-019-031-045-051-055-057-061-087-095-097-099-101-
103-105-107-111-113-115-117-123-125-127-135-139-157-163-171-177-
179-183-185-070440-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

APPANOOSE            BENTON              BLACK HAWK          
BUCHANAN             CEDAR               CLINTON             
DAVIS                DELAWARE            DES MOINES          
DUBUQUE              HENRY               IOWA                
JACKSON              JASPER              JEFFERSON           
JOHNSON              JONES               KEOKUK              
LEE                  LINN                LOUISA              
LUCAS                MAHASKA             MARION

WW 19 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 070215Z - 071000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 19
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Iowa
  Extreme Northwest Illinois
  East-Central Kansas
  Northern Missouri

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 815 PM
  until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are increasing in
coverage this evening across parts of Iowa and Missouri.  These
storms are forming in a strongly sheared environment that could
support the development of a few supercells capable of tornadoes,
hail, and damaging wind gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Cedar Rapids IA to 45
miles east southeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 17...WW
18...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

WW 0020 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0020 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 20 TORNADO AR OK 070355Z - 071000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 20
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Arkansas
  Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 955 PM
  until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will persist overnight across the
watch area, in a favorable sheared environment.  This might pose a
risk of a supercell or two capable of tornadoes, damaging winds, and
hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Fayetteville AR to 65
miles south of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 18...WW
19...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

WW 16 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 062115Z - 070400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Iowa
  Central and Northeast Kansas
  Northwest Missouri
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop near a
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front, with additional development
possible into this evening ahead of it. All aspects of severe
weather are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and
tornado potential.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Russell
KS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.

...Guyer

WW 0016 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 16

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUT TO
25 WSW MHK TO 25 NNE MHK TO 5 SSW BIE TO 30 WSW OMA TO 25 SSW FOD
TO 40 SW ALO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157

..MOORE..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...ICT...TOP...GID...DDC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 16 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC001-003-015-029-039-049-053-071-073-077-121-129-137-145-153-
155-159-169-173-175-181-070340-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ADAMS               BOONE               
CASS                 CLARKE              DALLAS              
DECATUR              FREMONT             GREENE              
GUTHRIE              MADISON             MILLS               
MONTGOMERY           PAGE                POLK                
POTTAWATTAMIE        RINGGOLD            STORY               
TAYLOR               UNION               WARREN              


KSC003-005-013-017-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-111-115-127-
131-139-149-177-197-070340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             ATCHISON            BROWN

WW 0015 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 15

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PRX TO
10 SE ADM TO 15 NNE PNC.

..SPC..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079-091-
097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-131-133-135-143-
145-147-070340-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ATOKA               BRYAN               
CHEROKEE             CHOCTAW             COAL                
CRAIG                CREEK               DELAWARE            
HASKELL              HUGHES              JOHNSTON            
LATIMER              LE FLORE            MCINTOSH            
MAYES                MUSKOGEE            NOWATA              
OKFUSKEE             OKMULGEE            OSAGE               
OTTAWA               PAWNEE              PITTSBURG           
PONTOTOC             POTTAWATOMIE        PUSHMATAHA          
ROGERS               SEMINOLE            SEQUOYAH            
TULSA                WAGONER             WASHINGTON          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0018 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 18

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SPC..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-070340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                BOURBON             CHAUTAUQUA          
CHEROKEE             CRAWFORD            ELK                 
LABETTE              MONTGOMERY          NEOSHO              
WILSON               WOODSON             


MOC009-011-013-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-083-085-097-105-109-
119-131-141-145-167-185-209-217-225-070340-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY                BARTON              BATES               
BENTON               CAMDEN              CEDAR               
CHRISTIAN            DADE                DALLAS              
GREENE               HENRY               HICKORY             
JASPER               LACLEDE             LAWRENCE            
MCDONALD             MILLER              MORGAN              
NEWTON               POLK                ST. CLAIR           
STONE                VERNON              WEBSTER

WW 18 TORNADO KS MO 062345Z - 070700Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 18
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Kansas
  Southwest Missouri

* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 545
  PM until 100 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercell thunderstorms over northeast
Oklahoma will build northeastward into the watch through the
evening.  The strongest cells will pose a risk of a few tornadoes,
damaging wind gusts, and hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Joplin MO
to 90 miles north northwest of Springfield MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 17...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

WW 0017 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 17

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LAF TO
25 E SBN TO 20 SW LAN.

..MOORE..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC017-039-049-085-087-103-113-151-169-183-070340-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CASS                 ELKHART             FULTON              
KOSCIUSKO            LAGRANGE            MIAMI               
NOBLE                STEUBEN             WABASH              
WHITLEY              


MIC023-059-070340-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRANCH               HILLSDALE           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms remain possible primarily from northeast
Oklahoma into Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, with isolated severe storms
extending from central Texas to Lower Michigan. Scattered hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible.

...Discussion...
The most active area of tornado threat is currently with a cluster
of storms over northeast OK. This activity may continue to evolve
this evening as the low-level jet increases, and shear remains
favorable into eastern KS and southwest MO. The TOP and SGF 00Z
soundings continue to show wind profiles favorable for tornadic
cells.

To the north along the cold front, an unstable air mass remains
ahead of it, although the front will quickly undercut much of the
area as it continues south. However, brief supercells may occur
along the boundary, with wind and tornado threat, and, elevated hail
will remain possible well behind the front.

For more information about KS into IA, see mesoscale discussion
0152.

For information on northeast OK, see mesoscale discussion 0153.

For information on northern IN into southern Lower MI, see mesoscale
discussion 0154.

..Jewell.. 03/07/2026