Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplified and partially blocked mid-level flow pattern over the US will persist much of this week before slowly devolving this weekend. Broad troughing over the East will continue as a cold continental air mass is reinforced by several frontal passages emanating from southern Canada. At the same time, a rex block over the West will keep relatively dry and unusually warm conditions in place for the next several days. Thereafter western ridging should slowly move eastward late this week as the overall flow pattern transitions to more zonal flow. While fire-weather concerns appear limited owing to below normal temperatures and recent precipitation over much of the eastern US, some areas of the West and FL could see dry/breezy conditions into next week. ...Southern CA... Beneath the upper ridge over the West Coast, a developing mid-level low near Baja California will encourage easterly low and mid-level flow over portions of Desert Southwest and southern CA D3/Wed and D4/Thursday. Ridge top gusts of 30-40 mph are possible early D3/Wednesday lingering into D4/Thursday with poor overnight RH recoveries below 30%. Although alignment of dry and breezy conditions are probable, a marginally dry fuelscape should limit more significant fire weather concerns. Thereafter, onshore flow should return as the upper low lifts north, limiting the fire-weather risk into the weekend. ...FL... The passage of several dry cold fronts later this week and into the weekend could support occasional dry/breezy conditions over parts of FL. With gusty northerly winds and offshore trajectories, well below average RH (20-30%) is expected D5/Friday and D6/Saturday. However, this will also coincide with below normal temperatures. Some fire-weather risk is possible late this week and into the weekend over the FL peninsula where precipitation has been limited. However, the overall threat for fire-weather activity is uncertain given only modestly receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
