MD 0415 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 105... FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI


Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

Valid 140246Z - 140415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

SUMMARY...Occasional wind damage and large hail threat may persist
until 05-06z across central Missouri, but the tornado threat is
slowly diminishing and a new downstream watch appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The earlier supercells have undergone cell interactions
and modest upscale growth into a cluster with a more expansive cold
pool/outflow.  A discrete supercell persists to the south in Henry
Co. MO, though this storm should be slowly absorbed into the
southeast flank of the cluster.  Thus, the more probable outcome
will be for gradual mergers and development atop the cold pool to
allow a storm cluster to persist for another few hours while
spreading eastward into central MO.  Occasional damaging winds of
60-70 mph and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the
primary threats, though an isolated/brief tornado will still be
possible with embedded circulations along the leading edge of the
cold pool, and as the remnant supercell interacts with the cold
pool.

..Thompson.. 04/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38429263 38359370 38579399 39099398 39279369 39419284
            39299241 38859235 38429263 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

MD 0414 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 103... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN


Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

Valid 140215Z - 140315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

SUMMARY...A replacement for the 03Z expiring WW 103 is expected
soon. Damaging winds will become more of threat with time, but the
threat for tornadoes will still be a concern into the overnight
given the strong low-level shear.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across the Upper Midwest has
generally become more linear over the past few hours. The increase
of the low-level jet (50+ kts observed on the KMKX VAD) suggests
that buoyant inflow will be sustained as storms move south and east
into the overnight period. The threat for damaging winds will likely
be on the increase as linear segments continue to organize and
low-level flow remains strong. The tornado threat has decreased
somewhat due to a less favorable storm mode. Even so, the KMKX VAD
has a notable 700+ 0-1 km SRH. The potential for tornadoes will
still be concern both with QLCS circulations and any discrete storms
that may form ahead of the linear segments. WW 103 is set to expire
at 03Z and a replacement watch will need to be issued soon.

..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43409324 44069262 44539011 44488961 43858785 42638782
            42648814 42668917 42659015 43409324 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 0106 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0106 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 106 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI LM 140240Z - 140900Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
940 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Iowa
  Southeast Minnesota
  Southern Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 940 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Lines and clusters of thunderstorms will persist overnight
across the watch area.  Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
are expected with this activity.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Rochester MN to 45 miles north northeast of Milwaukee
WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...WW 105...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Hart

WW 0105 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 105

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW SZL TO
15 E TOP.

..THOMPSON..04/14/26

ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC091-121-209-140340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JOHNSON              MIAMI               WYANDOTTE           


MOC013-037-083-095-101-140340-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BATES                CASS                HENRY               
JACKSON              JOHNSON             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 105 TORNADO KS MO 132335Z - 140400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  East Central Kansas
  West Central Missouri

* Effective this Monday evening from 635 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell and other widely scattered storms
will track eastward across the watch area.  Shear profiles are very
favorable for a risk of tornadoes and very large hail will storms
that can persist for a few hours.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Olathe KS to
60 miles south of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...WW 103...WW 104...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.

...Hart

WW 103 TORNADO IA MN WI LM 132010Z - 140300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Iowa
  Southern Minnesota
  Central Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon along a warm front across the watch area.  Supercells
capable of very large hail and tornadoes are possible.  A strong
tornado is possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Fairmont
MN to 20 miles east northeast of Oshkosh WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26030.

...Hart

WW 0103 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 103

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N FOD TO
20 SE FRM TO 30 ESE MKT TO 35 NNW RST TO 30 SW EAU TO 25 SSE EAU
TO 40 WSW CWA TO 25 N AUW.

..WENDT..04/14/26

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...GRB...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC005-033-081-089-131-189-191-195-140240-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLAMAKEE            CERRO GORDO         HANCOCK             
HOWARD               MITCHELL            WINNEBAGO           
WINNESHIEK           WORTH               


MNC039-045-047-055-099-109-147-157-169-140240-

MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DODGE                FILLMORE            FREEBORN            
HOUSTON              MOWER               OLMSTED             
STEELE               WABASHA             WINONA              


WIC001-015-021-023-027-039-047-053-057-063-073-077-081-087-089-
091-097-103-111-117-121-123-131-135-137-139-141-140240-

WI

WW 0104 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 105

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW SZL TO
15 E TOP.

..THOMPSON..04/14/26

ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC091-121-209-140340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JOHNSON              MIAMI               WYANDOTTE           


MOC013-037-083-095-101-140340-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BATES                CASS                HENRY               
JACKSON              JOHNSON             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, through the overnight hours. A
more focused risk for severe storms will continue through late
evening across the southern to central Plains.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface analysis reveals a slow-moving surface low over
eastern NE with a warm frontal zone draped eastward into southern MN
and central WI. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
along the frontal zone as of 01 UTC and will likely continue through
much of the overnight hours across the upper MS Valley and the
Midwest. Further south, several attempts at convective initiation
have been noted along a dryline draped from eastern NE southward
into KS, OK, and TX. Although additional attempts at thunderstorm
development are possible over the next few hours, the primary severe
risk will be focused across the Kansas City metro area where a
cluster of supercells has emerged. 

....Upper MS Valley/Midwest...
Scattered supercells are ongoing across southern MN and into central
WI along and north of the surface warm front. A tornado and
significant (2+ inch) hail threat will likely persist for the next
couple of hours, but the expectation is for increased storm
clustering and upscale growth through the overnight hours. The
developing MCS will likely spread east/southeast into southern WI
and possibly northern IL prior to 12 UTC Tuesday with an attendant
risk for severe winds.

...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
A cluster of supercells has emerged across eastern KS over the past
few hours and will likely continue to spread east into western MO
through late evening. Given very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematics noted in the 00z TOP sounding, this activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. 15%
hail and 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced to account
for this localized threat.

...Southern Plains...
GOES imagery over the past few hours has shown several attempts at
convective initiation across OK and TX; however, most of these
attempts have failed due to very meager/localized ascent along the
dryline. While one strong storm is noted across northwest TX, the
potential for new storm development should wane through the evening
given residual inhibition noted in 00z soundings and as nocturnal
cooling begins to diminish the dryline circulation. Because of this,
opted to remove 15% risk probabilities, but maintain some risk
probabilities given the ongoing convection and otherwise very
favorable convective environment.

..Moore.. 04/14/2026

WW 0102 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 102

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W FWA TO
40 ESE SBN TO 25 S AZO TO 5 E AZO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406

..WENDT..04/13/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC003-033-085-087-113-151-183-132340-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                DE KALB             KOSCIUSKO           
LAGRANGE             NOBLE               STEUBEN             
WHITLEY              


MIC023-059-149-132340-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRANCH               HILLSDALE           ST. JOSEPH          


OHC039-051-069-171-132340-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM
and West TX on Day 3/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates
eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest Day 4/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope
flow and a continued fire weather threat across the southern High
Plains Day 4/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather impact across
this region is expected on Day 5/Friday as the amplifying trough
moves into the central U.S. Farther east, upper-level ridging will
keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the
week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly
winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region.

...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Central/Southern Plains...
The central/southern High Plains will remain a focus for fire
weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime
prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and
subsequent lee surface troughing across the region will support
breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon on Days
3-5/Wednesday-Friday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a dry airmass of below 15
percent RH and sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist
behind the western OK dry line in the southern Plains. 40%
probabilities of Critical have been maintained to account for this
threat. On Day 4/Thursday, fire weather concerns persist with dry
and breezy southwesterly flow extending into southeastern CO,
maintaining 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions.
However, passing mid/high level clouds may dampen the fire
environment to some extent, precluding the introduction of 70%
Critical probabilities at this time.

A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
central CONUS by Day 5/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in
stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line.
Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in
some areas, several days of drying will allow more receptive fuels
to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week.
70% Critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 5/Friday
across much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of
West Texas. This is to account for extended guidance agreement in
combined probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than
20 mph winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may
further exacerbate the fire environment. 

On Day 6/Saturday, a dry, post-frontal airmass will emerge in the
wake of the aforementioned surface cyclone. However, ensemble spread
remains high regarding wind speeds, precluding the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...