
Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Areas affected...Southeastern Mississippi into central Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 641...
Valid 252036Z - 252230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 641 continues.
SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two and isolated wind damage remain
possible where surface heating/low-level lapse rates remain
strongest this afternoon. A weakening trend can be expected with
eventual loss of daytime heating.
DISCUSSION...Overall trends for storms within WW 641 this afternoon
have been for relatively brief intensification. A few cells have
continued to show weak low-level rotation, but this has also been
rather transient. Local VAD data suggest low-level shear has
weakened slightly, but is still sufficient for brief tornado
potential. This potential will be maximized where surface heating
has been greatest: southwest of Birmingham and parts of
southern/east-central Alabama. Storms should be able to maintain
some intensity for the next 2-3 hours. Beyond that point,
diminishing surface heating will lead to a weakening trend late this
afternoon.
..Wendt.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 30918882 31128901 32308825 33068771 33398744 33508704
33418632 33308567 32798550 32608544 31668621 31188732
30918882
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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Mesoscale Discussion 2230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...southeast North
Dakota...west-central Minnesota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251649Z - 252145Z
SUMMARY...Potential for moderate to heavy (around 1 inch per hour
rates) snowfall is expected to increase through the afternoon as the
upper trough intensifies and the surface low deepens in the Upper
Midwest.
DISCUSSION...An amplifying trough is evident on water vapor imagery
in the northern Plains. As this features continues into the Upper
Midwest, a surface low now analyzed in eastern South Dakota should
deepen and generally shift eastward. Ascent from low to mid levels
will promote a region of heavier precipitation. Recent observations
from northeast South Dakota showed heavy snow occurring.
Temperatures farther east are currently above freezing, but between
low-level cold air advection and diabatic cooling within the heavier
precipitation bands, moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates
(around 1 inch per hour) are probable into the mid/late afternoon.
..Wendt.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45219667 45239786 45379822 45479836 45579847 46039827
46349762 46619644 46459568 46279519 45809528 45609558
45439591 45219667
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-013-021-023-025-027-035-037-041-047-051-063-065-073- 085-091-099-101-105-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX MSC041-111-153-252040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE PERRY WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Alabama Extreme southeast Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through this afternoon/evening from extreme southeast Mississippi northeastward into central Alabama. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage with thunderstorms gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa AL to 50 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...ThompsonRead more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US. With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat. Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands. ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20z Update.. Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday. This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely mitigated fuel concerns at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Southeast... A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore early Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier conditions. ...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts... Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon. However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still, strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present. ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains. 06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast. Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025Read more