
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An eastward translating upper-level trough will exit the eastern U.S. by the weekend, with a broad surface high pressure settling into the OH River Valley by Day 5 Sunday. A building ridge across the West will continue to support near record heat across much of the Southwestern U.S. through the end of the week as a trough impinges upon the West Coast by early next week. At the surface, a strong cold front should elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday as dry, post-frontal flow impacts this region. Dry southerly flow returns on Day 4/Saturday across much of the southern and central Plains as surface high pressure pushes into the eastern U.S. and lee troughing evolves in the northern High Plains. Mid and upper-level moisture entering the Southwest ahead of the next trough could bring high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of NM and AZ over the weekend, increasing opportunities for ignitions over unseasonably dry fuels. ...Day 3/Friday - Central and Southern Plains... Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast will encompass portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. The gusty north-northeast winds accompanying a very dry air mass centered across portions of eastern KS, southwestward into OK and the TX Panhandle should support a fire weather threat across this region. A northeastward expansion of the existing 40% probabilities was warranted based on latest model guidance and receptive fuels in place. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern/Central Plains and Southeast... Fire weather impacts from the dry post-frontal environment will extend into portions of the Southeast by Day 4/Saturday. Appreciable northeast winds amid low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels supports continuation of the 40% critical probabilities for portions of the Carolinas, GA, southern TN and northwestern AL. ...Day 5/Sunday - Arizona and New Mexico... Increasing mid and upper-level moisture from the Pacific and emerging daytime instability should support high-based convection across portions of the Southwest. Exceptionally warm and dry conditions preceding and leading up to this event has aided in fuel receptivity to spread. As such, introduced a 10% probability for isolated dry thunderstorms for portions of eastern AZ and western NM, where drier fuels exist. Farther north, warming temperatures and an increasingly dry boundary layer should align with breezy west winds across portions of southeastern WY into western NE and far northeastern CO where minimal precipitation is expected to fall over the next few days. Dry fuels should largely still be in place by Day 5/Sunday across much of the High Plains so introduced 40% critical probabilities where the dry fuels coexist with breezy west winds and dry conditions. The high-based convection and dry thunderstorm threat could linger into early next week as the trough enters the western U.S. but generally cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity could reduce overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 03/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...Central and Southeastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma... A pronounced surface low south of a strong cold front will develop across the Southern High Plains Thursday while a subtle mid-level short wave ejects into the southern High Plains by Thursday afternoon. Dry, downslope favored flow with west to southwest winds of 15-25 mph ahead of the advancing cold front will overlap with very low relative humidity of around 10% across much of eastern NM, the TX Panhandle into northwestern OK. In addition, record breaking temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F will aid in rapid drying of finer fuels through the afternoon. Farther south, single digit relative humidity and downslope enhanced, albeit more localized, winds of 15-20 mph along and east of the Sacramento Mountains warranted a southward expansion of critical fire weather highlights into southeastern NM. The cold front pushing south across the southern Plains will bring an abrupt northerly wind shift to the region through early Friday, with potential impacts to existing wildfires or potential new ignitions. ...South-central Kansas... A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern KS before the cold front arrives by late Thursday afternoon. The cold front and impinging mid-level short wave, along with some mid-level moisture should support development of high-based showers and thunderstorms across southern KS by late Thursday afternoon and evening. Minimal precipitation over a very receptive fuelscape preceded by likely record high temperatures near 100 F should support a higher ignition efficiency across the area. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced, with westward expansion into southwestern KS and even extreme northern OK potential needed in subsequent outlooks. ..Williams.. 03/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... The strongest upper-level winds will persist within the northern tier states on Thursday. Some amplification of the upper ridge is expected in the West. Modest amplification of the upper trough over southeaster Canada is also expected. Cooler air will move into much of the CONUS by Friday morning. ...Central New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma... A cutoff low currently off the southern California coast will move through the Southwest Wednesday and reach the southern Rockies/High Plains Thursday afternoon. This feature will not be overly strong, but will provide enhancement to the mid-level winds and help deepen a surface low in the High Plains. This will promote 20-25 mph surface winds. With very dry air remaining in the Southwest and moving eastward, localized single digit RH is possible. More broadly, 10-15% RH can be expected during the afternoon. Sustained critical fire weather is most likely in these areas. ...Central Oklahoma into Flint Hills... The exact degree of RH reductions within these areas remains uncertain due to some moisture returning northward. However, mostly clear skies are expected and warming temperatures (likely in the 90s F given the current frontal progression forecast) will support RH values of 20-30%. With the low-level jet centered over these regions, winds of 15-25 mph (and stronger gusts) will promote elevated to near critical fire weather conditions even with what could be marginal RH reductions. The cold front will eventually move southward and strong, gusty north winds will arrive in its wake. Timing of the front will be mid/late afternoon for Kansas with overnight into Friday morning for Oklahoma. ...Western Kansas... Uncertainty in terms of the duration of fire weather concerns is largest in this area. With the surface trough remaining here the longest, weaker winds are expected for at least part of the day. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph may occur. Stronger northerly winds are expected behind the front. As the front moves southward through Wednesday into Thursday, some airmass modification appears probable and the temperature drop behind the front will be more gradual. This should allow for a secondary period of elevated to near critical fire weather during late afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southwest... Ahead of a cold front, surface winds will increase across the eastern Great Basin to 15-25 mph (locally higher). Across the Southwest, weaker winds are expected due to the stronger mid-level winds displaced farther north. There, only 15 mph is anticipated. Elevated fire weather is forecast as fuels continue to dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... Relatively dry and stable conditions will be present over most of the CONUS today, but with several small areas of some concern for thunderstorms. These include the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Mid/Upper MS Valley, and FL. ...Florida... A weak surface front lies across the central FL peninsula, with strong heating and dewpoints in the 60s leading to moderate afternoon CAPE. Similar to yesterday, scattered thunderstorms are expected along the east-coast sea-breeze and along/south of the front. Winds aloft are weak, but cool temperatures aloft could be sufficient for a strong storm or two capable of hail or gusty wind. The overall threat appears too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ...IL/IN... Visible satellite imagery shows a zone of weak low-level warm advection over IA, spreading eastward into IL. Several model solutions suggest the risk of some lightning activity this afternoon in this region, although it appears to be rooted in the mid-levels and unlikely to produce any severe risk. After dark, more active thunderstorms may develop over eastern IL and much of IN, but weak instability will continue to limit any organized severe threat.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will pivot across the eastern U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a cold front oriented from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Ohio Valley and southern Plains early Friday will develop southward through the period, moving offshore by Saturday morning. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. However, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near and just behind the front within a warm advection regime atop the boundary. Limited instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 03/25/2026Read more