Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low. Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.Read more
