Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi. ...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight... A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt) from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F), and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm front. Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight, though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD 2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward MS. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/24/2025Read more
