
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period. Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region. Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri. ...Discussion... Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region during this period, as a notable short wave perturbation and associated 50-70 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet streak progress northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley region. Beneath a plume of warm/capping elevated mixed-layer air nosing northeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley, low-level warm sector moistening is generally forecast to contribute to moderate to strong potential instability. Although the details of the potential convective evolution remain unclear, the environment appears likely to become supportive of organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells. Even if convection grows quickly upscale into one or more clusters/lines, embedded supercell structures will probably still pose potential for producing strong tornadoes. If an initially discrete supercell mode is maintained for a sustained period, tornadic potential could maximize, with a few long track, particularly damaging tornadoes possible. At this time, it appears that strongest thunderstorm development may initially focus in forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of the initially capping elevated mixed-layer across parts of southeastern Iowa into central Illinois. Enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along this corridor, perhaps coinciding with a zone of stronger differential surface heating associated with a modifying outflow boundary, may become conducive to several strong tornadic supercells before convection tends to grow upscale while propagating southeastward into Monday evening. A dryline structure extending southwestward through portions of eastern Missouri may also support initially discrete supercell development, before activity tends to grow upscale ahead of an advancing cold front while spreading into the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Monday evening. ..Kerr.. 04/25/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts. Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range across eastern NM and western TX. The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels are already in place across much of the region based on increasing ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that a remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation will tend to redevelop north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba during this period, within generally weakening larger-scale troughing extending along an axis inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the same time, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable strength, as a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within southwesterly flow which is likely to strengthen across the southern Rockies through central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. There appears a bit more disparity within guidance concerning when the stronger mid-level height falls associated with the primary impulse spread across the Rockies through the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high plains. It now appears that it may not be until early evening or later, but it does appear that this may be preceded by a more subtle perturbation across the same vicinity, perhaps as early as Sunday morning. The lead wave may be accompanied by one developing surface low within lee surface troughing across central Nebraska into the mid Missouri Valley, while the trailing wave supports the eastward migration of another surface cyclone out of southeastern Colorado into central Kansas late Sunday through 12Z Monday. In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air, initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models suggest that warm advection, at least in lower/mid-levels, will strengthen and become focused in a corridor across north central through northeastern Kansas by late Sunday evening, near the nose of a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Central/Southern Great Plains... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, has not offered much more in the way of clarity concerning convective potential for this period. Among other issues, the plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeastward through the southern and central Great Plains may prove inhibitive to the initiation of storms across much of the developing warm sector, while also contributing to moderate to strong potential instability. Potential for early day convection across western Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains may also impact later day severe weather potential. Even so, guidance generally indicates that a cyclonically curved, 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak will nose across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region by early Sunday evening. This likely will contribute to strengthening convergence along a sharpening dryline, particularly across portions of western Kansas, where at least a narrow corridor of moderate boundary-layer destabilization probably will become supportive of supercell development. The potential for a couple of strong tornadoes probably will increase as cells propagate east-northeastward Sunday evening, in the presence of enlarging clockwise curved hodographs beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb). Tornadic potential probably will maximize during the mid to late evening, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one or more clusters, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across north central/northeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of the Great Plains. ..Kerr.. 04/25/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits to low teens across the region. Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating. This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours. Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week. ..Moore.. 04/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon and evening. RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage threat. ...Central and Southwest Texas... A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today. Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/25/2026Read more