Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A small portion of the Elevated area stretching from southeast Colorado into far western Oklahoma was removed. Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that the warm front will not lift as far to the northeast today before sliding back to the southwest as a cold front tomorrow. HREF/REFS probabilities of forecast elevated winds/RH were less than 15% in the removed portion of the Elevated area. High clouds will be a mitigating factor tomorrow over the southern High Plains and Rockies. The aforementioned cold front sliding southwest through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, southeast Colorado, and northeast New Mexico during the evening and subsequent precipitation across portions of these areas will limit the duration of elevated to locally critical conditions as well. ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon. Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks. Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
