
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable. Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be noted with the most robust storms. ..Darrow.. 01/09/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The large-scale pattern over the CONUS will be generally characterized by ridging over the West and troughing over the eastern US this weekend through mid-next week. The upper high will likely retreat over the West Coast, with strong north-northwest flow aloft developing over the Rockies and Plains and deeper troughing over the eastern US early to mid-next week. Little to no precipitation is forecast for much of the western/central US during the forecast period. ...Texas and southern/central High Plains... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of west/central/south Texas Day 3/Saturday. Lingering dry/breezy conditions will be in portions of south Texas on Day 3/Saturday morning, with gusty northerly winds also likely in the morning and continuing into the afternoon in the western Hill Country/vicinity towards the Big Bend and the Rolling Plains. RH will drop in the afternoon there will likely be enough overlap of breezy northerly winds and low RH for elevated fire weather conditions. There is some uncertainty regarding how far west thunderstorms will form on Day 2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday in central Texas and the duration of coincident elevated winds/RH. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of northwest Kansas/vicinity as strong west-northwest winds develop on Day 3/Saturday. However, forecast temperatures in the 40s and minimum RH of 25-40% currently precludes elevated criteria being met. Dry conditions will continue across much of the western half of Texas into mid-next week. Breezy winds are likely to return early to mid-next week amid dry return flow and pre-frontal regimes. However, there remains to much forecast uncertainty to identify areas and introduce probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Dry/breezy northwest winds are expected across portions of the Southeast, likely stretching from southeast Virginia through the Carolinas, Georgia, and into Alabama and north Florida. Preceding rainfall may mitigate these conditions, including just hours before these post-frontal conditions develop. However, some areas may remain dry with portions of the coastal Carolinas into southern Georgia and north Florida currently favored. Dry conditions will continue across much of Southeast into Day 6/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more