MD 0458 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123... FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...North and central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

Valid 160101Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual decrease in storm coverage and intensity is
expected by 02-03z.

DISCUSSION...The earlier dryline storms have moved well east into
the moist sector across north TX, and will still pose a large
hail/wind damage threat through about 02z.  Farther southwest,
isolated storm development persists into the Edwards Plateau with an
isolated hail threat.  In the broader sense, storm coverage and
intensity are expected to decrease with the loss of surface heating
in a weakly forced environment, and the severe threat is likewise
expected to decrease after 02z.

..Thompson.. 04/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31779884 31190056 31370075 32449881 33869725 33869725
            33859638 33509638 31779884 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for damaging wind gusts could still increase a bit with
developing clusters of storms through mid to late evening across
parts of the Midwest into the southeastern Great Plains, while also
continuing with another cluster of storms spreading across northern
portions of the Allegheny Plateau.

...01Z Update...
Mid-level ridging centered near the south Atlantic Seaboard remains
prominent, but is undergoing some suppression as at least a couple
of short wave troughs migrate around its western through northern
periphery.  The most substantive of these waves is forecast to
continue migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through
Wisconsin/Illinois by late tonight, accompanied by a modest
downstream surface frontal wave.  A vigorous jet streak associated
with one or two lower amplitude downstream perturbations is forecast
to propagate from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through southern
New England.  It appears that mid/upper troughing with embedded
low-amplitude perturbations will linger across parts of the southern
Great Plains.  

Peak afternoon destabilization along the dryline, from near its
frontal intersection (roughly near/north of the Greater Kansas City
area) southwestward into the Texas South Plains, is already waning. 
However, it appears that at least a narrow corridor of moderate
residual boundary-layer instability in the warm sector to its east
could may maintain vigorous convection and support continuing
upscale convective growth into mid/late evening across parts of
southeastern Oklahoma, western/northern Arkansas, central/eastern
Missouri and central/northern Illinois.  As this occurs, largely
coincident with a northeastward propagating 30-40 kt southwesterly
850 mb jet, this may be accompanied by developing areas of
increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief
tornadoes, before convection weakens overnight.

..Kerr.. 04/16/2026

WW 0125 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0125 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 125 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 160055Z - 160500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Northern Illinois
  Southeast Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Wednesday night from 755 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will overspread the watch area this evening,
with occasional intense cells possible.  Locally damaging winds are
the main concern, with some risk of a tornado or two.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of
Milwaukee WI to 65 miles southwest of Peoria IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...WW 124...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Hart

WW 123 SEVERE TSTM TX 152145Z - 160300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western North Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 445 PM
  until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms are affecting parts of
western North Texas this afternoon in a very unstable air mass.  A
few supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds are
the main concern.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles south southeast
of Abilene TX to 145 miles northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...WW
121...WW 122...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.

...Hart

WW 0123 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 123

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI
TO 20 NNW ABI TO 50 WNW MWL TO 10 ESE SPS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457

..THOMPSON..04/16/26

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 123 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC059-077-097-121-133-181-237-253-337-353-363-367-417-429-441-
447-497-503-160140-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALLAHAN             CLAY                COOKE               
DENTON               EASTLAND            GRAYSON             
JACK                 JONES               MONTAGUE            
NOLAN                PALO PINTO          PARKER              
SHACKELFORD          STEPHENS            TAYLOR              
THROCKMORTON         WISE                YOUNG               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0121 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 121

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SPS TO
40 NNE ADM TO 35 NNW MLC TO 10 NE MKO TO 30 SSW GMJ TO 20 W GMJ
TO 15 SW BVO TO 10 E PNC.

..THOMPSON..04/16/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-143-160140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               WASHINGTON          


KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-160140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                BOURBON             CHEROKEE            
CRAWFORD             LABETTE             MONTGOMERY          
NEOSHO               WILSON              


MOC009-011-015-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-
217-160140-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WW 121 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 151930Z - 160200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far Northwest Arkansas
  Southeast Kansas
  Southwest Missouri
  Central and Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for mainly large hail
initially, with peak hailstones up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter.
Scattered damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorms
that can form into one or more clusters through the evening. The
threat for a couple of tornadoes should also gradually increase this
evening, especially for any convection that can remain at least
semi-discrete.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Joplin MO to 35 miles
south southwest of Ardmore OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Gleason

WW 0119 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 119

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W SDA TO
15 SE SUX.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448

..WEINMAN..04/15/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC009-013-015-017-023-025-027-047-049-069-073-075-077-079-083-
085-091-099-127-129-133-153-155-157-161-165-169-171-187-197-
152140-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUDUBON              BLACK HAWK          BOONE               
BREMER               BUTLER              CALHOUN             
CARROLL              CRAWFORD            DALLAS              
FRANKLIN             GREENE              GRUNDY              
GUTHRIE              HAMILTON            HARDIN              
HARRISON             HUMBOLDT            JASPER              
MARSHALL             MILLS               MONONA              
POLK                 POTTAWATTAMIE       POWESHIEK           
SAC                  SHELBY              STORY               
TAMA                 WEBSTER             WRIGHT              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0120 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 120

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CAK
TO 25 SW ERI TO 35 NNW ERI.

..LYONS..04/15/26

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...CLE...PBZ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 120 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OHC029-075-083-099-133-151-153-155-169-160040-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIANA           HOLMES              KNOX                
MAHONING             PORTAGE             STARK               
SUMMIT               TRUMBULL            WAYNE               


PAC031-039-049-053-065-073-085-121-160040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARION              CRAWFORD            ERIE                
FOREST               JEFFERSON           LAWRENCE            
MERCER               VENANGO             


LEZ149-169-160040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

WW 122 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 152035Z - 160200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  South-Central and Eastern Iowa
  Far Northwest Illinois
  Far Eastern Kansas
  Northern and West-Central Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very
large hail initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). With time,
upscale growth into one or more clusters should result in a greater
threat for scattered severe/damaging winds as thunderstorms move
eastward this evening. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible,
especially with any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete
into the evening hours.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Dubuque IA
to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...WW 121...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Gleason

WW 0124 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0124 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 124 TORNADO IL MO 152350Z - 160500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  West Central Illinois
  Northeast and Central Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday night from 650 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms over western Missouri will
track eastward across the watch area through the evening.  Locally
damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are the main
concerns.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles north northeast of Quincy IL
to 50 miles south southwest of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...WW
121...WW 122...WW 123...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Hart

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Friday, an amplifying trough will move into the central
U.S. as an associated mid-level speed max will intensify over the
central Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradients and a strong
cold front will promote a concentrated fire weather threat over the
southern Plains. Across the eastern U.S., a shortwave impulse will
aid in the upper ridge breakdown as the aforementioned trough
traverses the Midwest. As above normal temperatures prevail,
exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated winds will pose a
lingering fire weather threat throughout the East through the
weekend. Temporary ridging builds across the West on Day 4/Saturday
as post-frontal surface flow drives a dry and breezy airmass across
much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest. On Day
5/Sunday-Day 6/Monday, the upper ridge slides east of the Rockies as
the upper trough exits eastern CONUS, promoting dry return flow over
the Plains and post frontal winds in the Southeast. Towards the end
of the forecast period, another deep trough is forecast to approach
western CONUS. While model discrepancy exists in the extended, fire
weather concerns will likely continue next week in regions that have
seen minimal precipitation.

...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Friday through
Day 5/Sunday...
An amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS on Day
3/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening lee
surface troughing across the central Plains will aid in strong
west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70% Critical
probabilities have been trimmed slightly to account for quicker cold
frontal progression than previously forecast. Combined probabilities
of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds ahead of
the front should maintain a critical fire weather threat. An abrupt
wind shift of gusty northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold
front has the potential to impact any new or ongoing wildfires
through the evening hours.

On Day 4/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 5/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.

...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont/Southeast - Day 3/Friday through Day
5/Sunday...
As the East Coast upper ridge breaks down on Day 3/Friday, the
potential for a downslope wind event exists in the lee of the
Appalachians. West/northwesterly winds will traverse the Blue Ridge
Mountains allowing for surface RH to drop as surface winds increase
along the Piedmont, resulting in a continuation of 40% Critical
probabilities. On Day 4/Saturday, dry southwesterly flow returns to
the Piedmont and broader Southeast as the surface low enters
southern Ontario. With no expected precipitation across the region,
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained where dry and breezy
conditions continue atop exceptionally dry fuels. Chances for
precipitation increase on Day 5/Sunday as the upper trough moves
overhead, which could alleviate broader fire concerns. However, the
extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain, precluding the introduction
of probabilities at this time. On Day 6/Monday, post-frontal
northeasterly flow may increase fire weather concerns across the
Southeast as drought conditions worsen. However, uncertainty in
precipitation chances along the front on Day 5/Sunday preclude the
introduction of probabilities at this time.

As a secondary upper trough develops over the western U.S. on Day
6/Monday-Day 7/Tuesday, subsequent dry southerly flow over parts of
the Southwest and lee surface troughing across the High Plains will
continue broader fire weather concerns towards the end of the
forecast period.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...