
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well. ...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians... Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/16/2026Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Areas affected...southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...portions of
western Tennessee/Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 161611Z - 161745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe risk to increase through the early afternoon.
Primary risks will include large hail and damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite across southern Missouri shows an
area of deepening cu development, with a few smaller cells with
occasional lightning developing east of Springfield. The 12z RAOB
from SGF (Springfield, MO) shows MLCIN in place, which can still be
observed in surface objective analysis. With additional
heating/mixing and cooling aloft with the approaching shortwave,
this is expected to erode over the next couple of hours.
HREF guidance suggests that a cluster of thunderstorms may develop
by early afternoon before moving south and eastward into northern
Arkansas as forcing for ascent increases. Forecast soundings depict
linearly elongated hodographs and steep low to mid-level hodographs,
favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Through time, it is
likely that storms will cluster with an increase in damaging wind
potential. Additional thunderstorms will be possible near the OK/AR
border this afternoon. A watch will likely be needed to cover these
threats.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 04/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35679001 35269132 34989266 35009340 35079404 35239437
35589446 36039459 36599456 37359301 37349293 37459249
37499175 37499137 37139014 36728949 36018957 35679001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Central and northern High Plains... A surface low will deepen in the northern and central Plains ahead of an approaching upper-level trough currently traversing the Northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and consolidating surface pressure gradient will aid in developing gusty south to southwest winds accompanied by a dry, well-mixed boundary later across much of the central and northern Plains this afternoon. A corridor of stronger southerly winds is expected across portions of eastern SD and southwestern MN although RH reductions should be limited to the 20-25% range this afternoon. Nonetheless, receptive fuels coupled with the increasing southerly winds in place could support wildfire spread, necessitating a northeastward extension of Elevated Highlights into this region. ...Southern Plains... Lee surface troughing extends southward from the evolving surface low in the Northern Plains into the central and southern High Plains. A considerably drier boundary layer and supportive downslope trajectories will allow for Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern CO, northeastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles. Poor relative humidity recoveries were observed across portions of the southern High Plains, with current RH at 10% or below across southeastern NM and northwest TX. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid the presence of a 90F+ low-level thermal ridge and RH dropping into the single digits during peak heating this afternoon, will support critical fire weather conditions. Critical and corresponding Elevated Highlights were nudged southward into portions of Northwest TX to account for current surface observation trends and near term model guidance. The forecast remains on track for an elevated fire weather threat across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic with no changes to current highlights. Please see previous discussion for additional details. ..Williams.. 04/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. ...Central and Southern High Plains... As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the surface low. Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a broad area of critical fuels. ...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic... Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. ...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Mid South... Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket (-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon. The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid evening. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly 100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026Read more