
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat. On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon. On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA...western/northern
MD...eastern WV...northern VA
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 030536Z - 031130Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to develop and spread
east-northeastward overnight.
DISCUSSION...A large area of light precipitation is ongoing late
this evening across parts of OH/WV/VA. A veering low-level wind
profile and strengthening flow in the lowest 2 km AGL (as observed
in the KRLX VWP) are indicative of a low-level warm-advection regime
that will sustain this area of precipitation as it spreads
east-northeastward into the overnight. Precipitation will eventually
spread into parts of western/central PA/MD, eastern WV, and northern
VA that are currently below freezing, resulting in an increasing
coverage of winter precipitation.
Some sleet and/or light snow may fall at the onset of precipitation,
especially where colder antecedent temperatures (20s F) are in place
across parts of PA and northern MD. Otherwise, an increasingly
prominent warm nose in the 900-800 mb layer should allow for
development of freezing rain into the overnight hours as
precipitation spreads east-northeastward. Precipitation should
generally remain rather light, though liquid-equivalent rates
approaching 0.05 inches per 3 hours will support ice-accretion
potential, especially in terrain-favored areas where colder
temperatures and locally greater rates may persist. Southern and
western portions of the MCD area may eventually warm above freezing
overnight, but near/sub-freezing surface temperatures are expected
to persist through dawn from central PA into northern VA/MD.
..Dean.. 03/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 39177680 38547781 38187902 38007983 38168033 38418004
38807975 39227943 40507923 40747966 40868004 41118040
41348037 41678004 41747966 41577849 40377692 39837658
39507660 39177680
Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail, isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. Marginally severe storms may also develop from Thursday evening into the overnight across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, flow will become southwesterly across the Great Plains on Thursday, as a strong low pressure system moves though the Intermountain West. At the surface, a low will deepen across eastern Colorado, as south-southeasterly flow strengthens across the southern and central Plains. Low-level moisture will advect northward across Oklahoma, northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop across west Texas as a thermal/instability axis sets up over west-central Texas. Scattered storms are expected to initiate near the dryline on the Caprock in the late afternoon, moving eastward into the southern Plains during the early evening. As moisture advection continues, additional storms should develop further north into far southern Kansas during the evening. Late afternoon forecast soundings in west Texas from Big Spring to Childress have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. A tornado threat, along with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the most intense cells. The storms are expected to move eastward into western Oklahoma and the Lower Rolling Plains of northwest Texas during the evening, with additional cells developing across southern Kansas. The strengthening low-level jet will help sustain a threat for hail and severe gusts. Further north across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, moisture and instability will gradually increase during the evening as a low-level jet strengthens. Scattered elevated storms are expected to develop near the low-level jet around midnight and should increase in coverage during the overnight period. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range should be favorable for hail. The severe threat is expected to persist through late in the period. ..Broyles.. 03/03/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the central Great Plains through D2/Wednesday as a more amplified upper-level trough digs southeastward into the West. At the surface, a weak cyclone will transition northeastward across the Midwest along a nearly stationary boundary forecast to extend from far west Texas northeastward into the Midwest and then eastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and modestly increased RH within the post-frontal air mass are expected to temper any fire weather concerns across much of the central and southern High Plains. While a corridor of stronger sustained surface winds (15-20 mph) is forecast ahead of the surface low from southern Texas into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, richer low-level moisture will maintain surface RH above 40-50% across region. Meanwhile, a second surface cyclone will shift southeastward from Alberta into southeastern Montana and may bring a brief period of localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High Plains; however, sustained winds are forecast to remain light (less than 15 mph) across any areas that do see decreased RH values of 20% or less. Given the expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger sustained winds, widespread fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time. ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southern Plains and Ozarks... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support convective initiation along the front during the mid to late afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to organize along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith, Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail, especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a low-level jet strengthens. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across much of the east-central U.S. An axis of moisture and instability will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Near this axis of instability, low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. This will create lift, supporting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Forecast soundings along and near this axis in the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be present. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep, generally in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support an isolated large hail threat with cells that rotate. A marginal wind-damage threat may develop further west in the mid Mississippi Valley, where a few surface-based storms will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/03/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today. At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains this afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon. Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon. Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours, with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds accompanying the frontal passage. ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri. ...Southern Plains/Central MO... Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the overnight hours. Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However, forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based. Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms may generate severe hail. ..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026Read more