
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited. ...Synopsis... A cold front noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern Plains is forecast to push southeast over the next 48 hours. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front across the OH Valley around 12 UTC Friday, but should gradually wane in coverage from west to east through late morning as frontal ascent shifts south into an air mass with poor mid-level lapse rates. Heating of a seasonally moist air mass across the Carolinas and southern Virginia (mid 50s dewpoints) will likely yield a pocket of MLCAPE values between 100-300 J/kg ahead of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front pushes through during the mid to late afternoon hours. While 30-40 knot mid-level flow will overspread the region through peak heating, the general consensus among guidance, including the typically aggressive RRFS, is that buoyancy profiles will remain too marginal to support intense updrafts and a more appreciable severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough topping the dominant southwestern anticyclone over southern WY. Latest lightning data supports this with isolated thunderstorms currently noted from southern WY into the NE Panhandle. 00z model guidance suggests this feature will advance into the Mid-MO Valley by 18z, then progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 27/00z. As this short wave advances east, surface ridging will build south across the Plains and force a pronounced cold front across much of IA by early afternoon with the sharp boundary settling south across northern IL as a weak surface wave tracks toward southern Lower MI. Deep westerly flow should allow surface temperatures to warm quickly into the lower-mid 80s south of the front over IL/western IN. Even so, convective temperatures may struggle to be breached until late afternoon. Current thinking is upper 50s to near 60 F dew points should return to this region prior to frontal passage, thus modest MLCAPE is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest weak capping may hold across the warm sector so it's not entirely clear how much activity will develop well ahead of the front. However, strong frontal forcing will easily encourage thunderstorm development and convection will evolve within a strongly sheared environment. Profiles favor organized rotating updrafts and supercells are expected, especially early in the convective cycle. Given the strength of the front there is an expectation for storm mergers and line segments to evolve. Very large hail is possible, especially with early supercell development. As a frontal MCS evolves, damaging winds are expected to be more common with the LLJ strengthening into the evening hours across the OH Valley. Some tornado threat also exists with storms that are not undercut by the surging cold front, both with supercells and within the extensive frontal squall line. This activity will spread toward the Ohio River where gradual weakening is expected during the late-night hours. ..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/26/2026Read more