
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon. ...20z Update central and southern Plains... Thunderstorm development remains likely late this afternoon and this evening along the frontal zone from southern NE into northeast KS. While remnant cloud cover has slowed destabilization, sufficient buoyancy and supercell wind profiles will likely support a risk for hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this afternoon/evening. See MCD #367 for specific short-term information. Farther south along the trailing surface trough/dryline, more isolated thunderstorm development is expected across the TX Panhandle and far eastern NM. High cloud bases with deep inverted-v structures could support isolated severe wind gusts with the heavier cores. Storm coverage is likely to decrease farther south where weaker forcing and overall more limited buoyancy is present. Still, isolated storms are possible, and the 5% wind area was expanded southward slightly for the latest hi-res guidance. ...CA and OR... East of an upper low, broad-scale ascent over a modestly warm/moist air mass was supporting widely scattered thunderstorms over portions of northern CA and southern OR. While overall buoyancy is weak (generally below 500 J/kg of MLCAPE), strengthening southerly flow aloft could support a few organized clusters or transient supercells capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and some hail. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/ ...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO. Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with southward/eastward extent. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern California/Southwest Oregon... As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly some hail.Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Areas affected...Portions of northern California into Southwest
Oregon
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091904Z - 092100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail
will be possible this afternoon. Limited storm coverage and
intensity will likely preclude a watch.
DISCUSSION...As an upper low approaches the northern California
coast, an increase of mid-level ascent has led to deepening
convection within the terrain. Deep-layer southerly flow has
maintained moisture in the region and dewpoints have held in the
low/mid 50s F in some areas. Where the greatest heating can occur
(i.e., temperatures reaching into the low/mid 60s), MLCAPE of
500-750 J/kg can be expected. A few stronger cores have already
pulsed up and down in intensity. The expectation is for additional
storms, a couple strong to marginally severe, to form in the next
several hours. Weaker effective shear (25-30 kts) will likely limit
the overall severity of storms, however.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...
LAT...LON 39652334 41852430 43252389 43652296 43602242 43272223
42862246 42302297 41412284 40892274 40202270 39812285
39652334
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Areas affected...north central into northeastern Kansas and adjacent
portions of southern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091839Z - 092115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development accompanied by at
least increasing risk for large hail appears possible as early as
3-5 PM CDT. Trends are being monitored for a severe weather watch,
which probably will be needed at some point, but timing remains a
bit uncertain.
DISCUSSION...To the south of a stalled surface frontal zone near the
Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity into northern Missouri, forcing for
ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is
maintaining scattered weak elevated or high based thunderstorm
development. However, breaks in cloud cover are allowing for
sufficient insolation to contribute to destabilization, in the
presence of a still rather modestly moist, but slowly moistening,
boundary-layer.
Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting across
the high plains, stronger heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is
ongoing across western into central Kansas. Through mid to late
afternoon, it appears that a dryline may become better defined in
the vicinity of its intersection with the front, near Concordia KS,
south-southwestward.
As this occurs, it appears that strengthening low-level warm
advection will become focused near the nose of a persistent 30+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet, across and northeast of the surface
front/dryline intersection into southern Nebraska between Hastings
and Beatrice. Coinciding with destabilization including
mixed-layer/most unstable CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg, it
appears that this will support the initiation of intensifying
thunderstorm development.
Based on latest model output, how far to the cool side side of the
surface front/dryline intersection and how soon remain a bit
unclear. However, it appears possible as early as the 20-22Z time
frame, in the presence of sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to
support supercell structures capable of producing large hail. For
any storm development rooted closer to the surface near the boundary
intersection, the potential for strong surface gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two would be more appreciable.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 40339864 40709707 40079587 39529537 38989683 38859917
40339864
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts of central California. ...Synopsis... An upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern CA late on Saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. To the east, an upper ridge will be located over the MS Valley during the day, and this will shift east toward the Appalachians by 12Z Sunday. In between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow aloft will encompass the Rockies and Plains states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s F dewpoints across TX and OK. A lee trough over the High Plains will be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support areas of severe storms. Elsewhere, low pressure will also affect parts of central CA, moving ashore late in the day. This may also focus a few strong storms. ...Southern Plains... Low pressure will deepen over the northern and central High Plains, with gusty south winds bringing 50s F dewpoints as far north as NE by 00Z. Southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture westward across west TX and into eastern NM. Here, strong heating and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon. Shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt southwest winds at 500 mb. Some storms may produce hail, and several storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with areas of strong to severe gusts possible. A separate area from northeast CO into KS and western NE may support a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and with locally backed surface winds. ...Central CA... Strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as the upper low moves toward the area. Weak instability will develop as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is currently forecast. Isolated cells may occur in the central valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it approaches the central coast. Gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be possible. Severe potential is more uncertain three days out, but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. In eastern UT and western CO, seasonably warm temperatures and low RH on Day 1/Thursday will promote short-term fuel preconditioning for Elevated fire weather conditions on Day 2/Friday. While mid and high level clouds are expected to increase across the risk area throughout the day, very low RH of less than 15 percent and southerly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 35 mph) atop dry fuels will maintain broader fire concerns. Farther east, portions of northern KY and southern OH may experience locally elevated fire weather conditions for a few afternoon hours. Ahead of an approaching cold front, westerly sustained winds of up to 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with RH dropping to near 35 percent are expected to overlap a region of drying and potentially receptive fuels. ERCs in northern KY are approaching the 97th percentile as 10-hr and 100-hr fuel moistures are forecast to be within the 10th percentile. While winds will shift out of the north with the late afternoon cold front arrival, increasing moisture and decreasing wind speeds into the evening hours should provide some relief to the fire environment, precluding the introduction of elevated highlights. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on D2/Friday as another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Simultaneously, upper ridging will persist across the Rockies and eastern Great Basin, with zonal flow continuing across the Great Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will progress southeastward across the Ohio River Valley and Northeast with high pressure building into the Great Lakes/Midwest. ...Portions of the Great Basin... A tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained southerly winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin on D2/Friday. Despite some mid/high cloud cover, RH values are forecast to fall to 15-20% (locally down to 10%) during peak mixing Friday afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from D1/Thursday, this combination of winds and RH is expected to support elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Utah into west-central/northwestern Colorado. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also support the potential for occasional gusts to 35 mph across this region. Expected precipitation arrival on Saturday may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, with temporary ridging across the Plains. To the west, a large-scale upper trough will develop, with a lead wave moving into the Great Basin overnight while a deeper upper low drops south off the West Coast. Despite the ridging over the Plains, midlevel temperatures will remain seasonably cool with around -14 C over KS. At the surface, high pressure will move from the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the Northeast and into the OH Valley. Farther west, this front will decelerate from southern MO into northern OK, and become a warm front overnight into southern KS. Elsewhere, a surface trough will develop from ID into NV as height falls occur late. ...From northeast NM eastward across southern KS and northern OK... Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning from southeast KS into northern OK, southwest MO and into northwest AR, with perhaps some strong gust potential. This activity may weaken during the day. To the west, strong heating will occur south of the main boundary, with 50 F to near 60 F dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Backed surface winds near the boundary will likely aid storm development into northeast NM late in the afternoon, with activity moving into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening. Activity will be slow moving, with localized hail or wind potential. ...Northwest NV into southwest ID... Strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures will result in steep lapse rates across the region as the upper trough gradually approaches. Deep-layer shear will be weak during the day but will increase to 35-40 kt by evening as height falls arrive. Given the later influence of the upper trough and marginal combination of shear and instability, will maintain no severe probabilities at this time. However, a cell or two could produce locally strong gusts or small/marginal hail into the evening. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon. ...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO. Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with southward/eastward extent. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern California/Southwest Oregon... As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/09/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries over the northeastern NM plains and current RH hovering around 20 percent are expected to maintain Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15 mph across the area. Forecast soundings portray a dry sub-cloud layer beneath increased mid-level moisture, supportive of strong and erratic wind gusts with any thunderstorms that manage to develop. In addition to isolated convection, very sparse lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out. In parts of the Northeast, morning surface observations are reporting widespread RH of 25-35 percent with increasing southerly sustained winds up to 10 mph. Locally elevated fire weather is possible this afternoon as winds are forecast to increase to 15 mph (locally higher within the Hudson/Champlain Valleys). However, increasing mid and high level clouds may dampen the fire environment, and given questionable fuel receptivity, elevated highlights have been withheld. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today, with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a closed upper-level low approaching the northern California coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the southern High Plains... A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also support the development of isolated, high-based convection across this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of 50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out. However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld. ...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest... Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time. ...Portions of the Northeast... Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of drier fine fuels, however. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more