SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.

...Discussion...
An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in
place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the
Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the  Gulf
Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the
Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the
southern Plains late.

During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist
ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA.
Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower
70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range.

While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective
shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak.
Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the
Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated
CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with
this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler
temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could
occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north
of the boundary.

To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps
across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate
areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead
wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be
non-severe.

..Jewell.. 02/25/2026

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 25 17:31:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 25 17:31:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight.  Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F).  A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast.  Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon.  As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop. 
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong
west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment.  A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.  

Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 02/25/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Ample high cloud
cover is visible on satellite imagery across eastern NM and west TX,
likely to persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts of
25-35 mph have already been observed this morning in southeastern NM
with RH values hovering at and below 20%. Increasing sustained
downslope winds of 20-30 mph and RH below 20% atop a dry fuelscape
will support Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for
this area. In the CO Front Range, cross-terrain surface pressure
gradients beneath an incoming 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will support gusty
downslope winds through the Central High Plains. In
central-southeastern CO, RH of 20-25% will be slightly displaced
from the strongest sustained surface winds to the north, though
local terrain-driven wind tunneling may generate isolated areas of
higher winds, so locally critical fire weather conditions may be
possible given receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for more
information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/

...Synopsis...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across
the central and southern Rockies today with lee troughing in place
across much of the central and southern High Plains. The cross
terrain surface pressure gradient will support dry, downslope winds
of 20-30 mph across portions of east-central and southeast New
Mexico this afternoon. A plume of mid-level moisture will nose into
the area through the day, fostering some high-level cloud cover and
a modest increase in surface dewpoints. Given this, guidance is not
overly confident in RH dropping below 15% for more than a brief
period. However, the increased winds overlapping a dry fuelscape
will still support a period of Critical fire weather conditions
during the afternoon. 

RH values of around 20% with surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected
elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains, but locally
higher winds are possible within terrain-favored locations.

...Edwards Plateau into South-Central Texas...
A modest surface low will gradually progress southeastward across
portions of central Texas today. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible
to the south and west of this feature. Coupled with expected RH
values of 15-20%, this will support Elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon.

...Northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
Kansas...
Strong northwesterly flow across the central Rockies will align with
a favorable cross-terrain surface pressure gradient to support a
strong downslope wind event across portions of the central High
Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected along with
the potential for gusts up to 45-55 mph. While RH values are
forecast to remain marginal (20-25%), the strong downslope winds
will overlap with receptive fuels to support Elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible farther north
into portions of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle;
however, such conditions are expected to be brief given anticipated
RH increases behind an advancing surface cold front.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority
of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an
anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay.
An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern
High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will
influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across
higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A
few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this
afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer
environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely.
Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward
toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist
advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak
buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated
convection.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/25/2026