Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Daily high temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds of the western US will continue to be broken during Day 1/Monday and Day 2/Tuesday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the amplitude of the existing ridge as it moves across the northern CONUS border on Day 4/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern Seaboard on Day 5/Friday. The western US upper-level ridge is poised to build back next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this ridge will be nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the northern Pacific, but the timing and speed of the parent trough is uncertain at this point. The latest forecast guidance does suggest that a shortwave could move through the flow around Day 8/Monday. If this does come to fruition, it could provide some precipitation across portions of the Intermountain West starting on Day 7/Sunday. On Day 3/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down, warm surface temperatures will support a deep boundary layer, mixing strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level jet to the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for much of east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, eastern Idaho, southern Montana, southwest South Dakota, and western Nebraska where surface winds will be slightly weaker and/or RHs slightly higher. A very small potential for a thunderstorm or two will be possible over the western slopes of Colorado during peak heating. If convection does initiate, very little precipitation will be realized at the ground level. On Day 4/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the central and southern Plains. A 70% probability was added over the area of greatest certainty covering much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and portions of east-central New Mexico. The 40% probability area was expanded slightly east due to forecast guidance advecting drier conditions farther across the southern Plains while the western extent was expanded to include extreme eastern Arizona and across much of New Mexico. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area. On Day 6/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 5/Friday will likely produce downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this region. Thus, the drawn 40% area is likely to evolve over the coming days as this precipitation influences fuels receptivity to ignition over this region. Additionally, a 40% area was drawn over a good portion of the central Plains for Day 6/Saturday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten across this area as a result of a surface high located over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and a strengthening surface low over Wyoming, resulting in strong southerly winds from Kansas to South Dakota. ..Stearns.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
