SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cooler temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the southern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.

..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
Fairly zonal flow dominates much of central CONUS on Day 3/Thursday
as upper-level troughing traverses the Northeast and a cutoff low
approaches the California coast. However, it's not until Day
4/Friday into Day 5/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 6/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.

...Great Basin/Southwest - Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday
across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest.
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with 15-20% RH in
northwest AZ and southern NV may generate locally elevated fire
weather concerns on Day 3/Thursday. Similar conditions also appear
likely across eastern UT on Day 4/Friday. However, recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels
will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
precipitation appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure
system later in the week.

...Southern Plains - Day 6/Sunday through Day 7/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 6/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 7/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns.
However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and
coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread
appreciable rainfall on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday, critical
probabilities have been withheld for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...