SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough responsible for isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Lower MI this evening will continue to
lift north across the Great Lakes, while westerly winds at 850 mb
maintain a degree of instability over southwest Ontario and perhaps
into parts of western NY. Thunderstorm chances here will be
relatively low.

To the south, height falls will occur overnight across the Mid MS
and OH Valleys as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across KS
and OK. Isolated activity may occur into Thursday morning from parts
of MO into TN and IL/IN as elevated instability develops within a
subtle warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough.

Elsewhere, lift will increase across northern CA as a shortwave
trough dives southeastward just offshore. Cold temperatures aloft
and relatively warmer air near the coast may yield a few lightning
flashes overnight.

..Jewell.. 02/19/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave and attendant jet arrives to the
Southern Plains by Day 3/Friday along with a related lee surface
trough evolving across eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Dry and breezy
conditions across the Southern Plains should keep a heightened fire
weather threat in place. As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a
dry cold front sweeps across the Southern Plains bringing dry
northerly flow and fire weather concerns to southern TX Day
4/Saturday. Widespread rainfall across much of the Southeast should
temporarily alleviate fire weather concerns over the weekend.
Rainfall should be limited farther south across the Gulf Coast and
FL, with particular concern for southern FL where dry-post frontal
northerly flow could increase the fire weather threat for Day
6/Monday.

...Day 3/Friday - Southern Plains...
A pronounced mid-level jet and surface lee troughing across the
southern High Plains should support dry and breezy downslope
conditions across much of the region on Day 3/Friday. A corridor of
stronger west winds across northeastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle coinciding with enhanced downslope drying, will likely
yield Critical fire weather conditions for the area on Day 3/Friday
amid increasingly dry fuels and recent wildfires. A 70% critical
probability area has been added due to higher confidence in model
guidance. Farther south, dry westerly flow will keep the fire
weather threat elevated for much of eastern NM and western TX.  

...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Texas...
Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front moves
into TX Day 4/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
exist across portions of central and southern TX where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.

...Day 6/Monday - Florida...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
5/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. The dry northerly flow along with dry fuels
should increase the fire weather threat particularly across the
southern FL Peninsula where 40% Critical probabilities have been
added. 

...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday...
Fire weather concerns could reemerge across portions of the central
and southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
breaks down. However, timing uncertainty of surface trough/cyclone
features limits predictability in the longer term with no inclusion
of critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 02/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...