
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. ...20Z Update... The majority of the forecast remains on track and is unchanged. Modest adjustments were made to the Enhanced risk in the southern Plains. Surface heating is increasing into more of the I-35 corridor as clouds continue to gradually erode from west to east. As mid-level ascent increases into the evening, there is potential for more organized linear structures to move into central Oklahoma and North Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by observed soundings and TAMDAR data suggest severe winds would be a concern with these linear structures. Farther north and east, it appears probable that capping will lead to decreasing storm intensity. Additional details are found in the previous discussion. For additional short-term, mesoscale details see MCD 186 and 187. ..Wendt.. 03/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/ ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A weak surface low over eastern KS late this morning will translate northeastward along a front towards northern IL through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes, where surface dewpoints of at least low to mid 60s will likely be present by this evening. Large-scale ascent across this region will remain fairly nebulous, as an upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains. Still, a strengthening low-level jet across MO into IL/IN from late afternoon into this evening should promote scattered supercell development along/near the front in north-central IL. Moderate to locally strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells. Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%) and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update. Convection should eventually grow upscale along/near the front late this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. But, the threat for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds will likely continue with eastward extent across the Midwest/OH Valley, as both sufficient instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will be present across the warm sector. ...Texas into Oklahoma... A closed mid/upper-level low over northern Mexico will move eastward across the Southwest and southern High Plains by this evening while devolving into an open wave. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft and pronounced large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will encourage robust thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon along the length of a surface dryline extending southward across much of west TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization, with an attendant threat for supercells initially. Very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will be possible with this discrete activity, before a transition to more linear structures occurs through the evening. An increase in the severe/damaging wind threat will likely be realized as this mode transition occurs across parts of central TX into southern OK. Some threat for embedded tornadoes will also exist, especially into central TX where greater low-level moisture and shear are forecast. A separate area of severe potential may develop this afternoon/evening across parts of central into northeast TX in the low-level warm advection regime. While weakly forced, there is some chance for at least isolated supercells to develop and pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. This scenario remains uncertain, but 5% tornado probabilities have been expanded eastward to account for this conditional potential. ...Oklahoma/Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley... A dryline will be in place across western OK today, with a cold front forecast to move slowly southward across KS and parts of MO through tonight. While this area will largely remain between stronger large-scale forcing to both the north and south, it appears probable that additional thunderstorms will eventually develop this evening/tonight along/south of the front. Tornadoes and large hail appear possible with any sustained supercells, while damaging winds should occur with line segments that can develop and spread eastward through early Wednesday morning.Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa/northeastern Missouri
into northern Illinois and northwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 101853Z - 102130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercell development along a surface warm front appears
likely across portions of the Midwest this afternoon, with a threat
for all severe hazards, including hail to 2+ inches in diameter and
a risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). While the
timing of convective initiation remains somewhat uncertain, a
Tornado Watch will be needed to cover this threat within the next
1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts deepening
cumulus across portions of northeastern Missouri into southwestern
Iowa and western Illinois. Recent observations also show an
increasingly unstable low-level air mass characterized by low-to-mid
60s F surface dewpoints south of a warm frontal boundary. While
synoptic-scale forcing is expected to remain modest at best,
continued low-level moist advection coupled with diurnal heating and
strong mid-to-upper level flow across the Midwest are expected to
support scattered severe thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, and strong effective bulk shear
50+ kts will support a very favorable environment for intense
supercells capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail of 2+
inches in diameter will be possible initially. While low-level shear
is currently modest per the ILX 18Z special sounding and VWP, a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet will favor an
accompanying strong increase in low-level shear and effective SRH
through this evening. The resultant enlarged/curved low-level
hodographs will support intense low-level mesocyclones with
supercells and an increasing risk for tornadoes (some within the
EF2-3+ range) along and immediately south of the surface warm front.
While low-level stability is expected to limit tornado potential
north of this boundary, elevated supercells that develop/persist on
the cool side of the warm front will continue to pose a threat for
large to very large hail. The timing of convective initiation
remains a bit uncertain, but a Tornado Watch will be needed within
the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 03/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41039205 41309188 41529106 41559007 41658890 41658791
41688721 41568648 41408623 41198615 40888630 40678675
40518715 40448741 40288838 40248898 40228965 40219039
40209104 40329153 40479192 40599207 41039205
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...Edwards Plateau to the Big Country in west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 101835Z - 102030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to initiate across the western
Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Very large to giant hail along
with an increasing tornado threat is expected into early evening,
especially across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. A tornado watch will
be issued by 21Z.
DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development is ongoing across the
Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos, along the leading edge of stronger
large-scale ascent downstream of the northwest Mexico shortwave
trough. The warm-moist sector ahead of the west TX dryline continues
to destabilize, with moderate buoyancy prevalent towards central TX.
18Z FWD sounding sampled a pronounced EML with substantial MLCIN,
likely limiting initial severe potential to west of the residual
stratocumulus deck lingering over central TX.
Storm development should emanate out of the high-based cumulus
across the western Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. With robust
southwesterly speed shear in the mid to upper levels, atop low-level
southerlies, wind profiles will be conducive to supercells and
eventual upscale growth into bowing linear segments. The latter
should be favored with northern/northeast extent, with some
uncertainty on just how far north sustained supercell development
will occur into the TX Big Country.
The very large hail to giant hail threat, along with an increasing
tornado risk should tend to be centered on the Edwards Plateau where
larger buoyancy and more discrete supercell structures impinge on an
increasing low-level jet by early evening. This setup may yield a
couple long-track/intense supercells.
..Grams/Gleason.. 03/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29870232 31380170 31400164 32000123 32590064 33079997
32949907 32099859 31019859 30389888 29519955 28819996
28520041 29870232
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper wave will continue to translate eastward across the eastern CONUS through the day Thursday before moving off the Atlantic Coast by late evening. At the surface, an attendant cyclone will continue to drift north/northeast into eastern Quebec as it begins to occlude. A trailing cold front will start the forecast period draped from the Northeast into the Southeast states, and is forecast to gradually shift east through the day before moving off the East Coast and stalling across the FL peninsula as broad-scale ascent weakens. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front at the start of the period across portions of southeastern AL, western GA, and the FL Panhandle. Lingering 40-50 knot mid-level flow may support a few organized thunderstorms during the morning hours - mainly along the I-10 corridor. However, it is unclear how intense this activity will be given linear/clustered storm modes and a marginal thermodynamic environment during the diurnal buoyancy minimum. Regardless, steady weakening is anticipated through the day as convection drifts into an environment with decreasing mid-level lapse rates and diminishing forcing for ascent. Across the northern High Plains, cold mid-level temperatures associated with a clipper low may support pockets of sufficient instability for lightning production. Steep low-level lapse rates and strong flow within the lowest kilometer may support a few stronger gusts, but the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for risk probabilities at this time. ..Moore.. 03/10/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Forecast guidance continues to show strong north and northwest winds on Day 2/Wednesday in the wake of the cold front that will have just passed through the central Plains overnight. Forecast guidance also suggests a drier environment, with minimum RHs of 15-25%, over much of the central and southern High Plains. The latest trends also depict the cold front progressing farther south and east through Oklahoma by the afternoon. This necessitates the expansion of the Elevated area to southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado through portions of western Oklahoma. While elevated winds/RH will likely exist farther north across much of western/central Nebraska into extreme eastern Wyoming, cold daytime temperatures and preceding precipitation, some of which is likely to fall as snow, will limit the northern extent of the outlook area. Farther south near the Trans Pecos, localized elevated conditions are possible as the cold front pushes through the Big Bend area, though the pressure gradient is weaker. Less receptive fuels over northwest New Mexico will continue to be the limiting factor, although peak heating will mix strong northwest flow aloft down to the surface. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the CONUS will gradually recombine as the southern-stream trough merges with the northern trough over the Midwest and Appalachians D2/Wed. Ridging will intensify over the West as a cold front will sweep southeastward with a much cooler air mass and gusty northerly winds likely behind it. Some fire-weather potential remains possible over the southern and central Plains where drier and windy conditions are possible. However, forecast uncertainty is high. ...Central and southern High Plains... A modestly dry post-frontal air mass is likely to develop across the High Plains D2/Wednesday afternoon. While RH values will not be overly low (generally above 30%) gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph and higher gusts are expected from southern NE into western KS and TX/OK. This may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of the southern Plains. Generally the overlap of gusty winds and RH below criteria appears minimal with humidity quickly increasing through the day as colder air filters south. Additionally, the potential for precipitation from the prior day casts significant uncertainty on the potential for sustained elevated conditions. However, the strengthen of the northerly winds and some drying appears conducive to a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential in the southern High Plains where precipitation and cooler air should be minimized. Expansion is possible in subsequent outlooks, pending precipitation and frontal timing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains to southern Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Northern Indiana Northern and Central Illinois Southern Lower Michigan * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a couple intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 03/10/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning. A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front through the day as it pushes east/southeast. ...Upper OH Valley... A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including supercells. The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley, though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture. Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent thermodynamic environment emerges. ...Lower MS Valley... One or more broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of a Pacific front across the greater Texarkana region Wednesday morning. While some modulation in convective intensity is anticipated during the morning hours, continued lift ahead of the southern stream upper wave through peak heating will promote a re-intensification of thunderstorms by early afternoon. Southerly flow through a deep layer will promote along-boundary storm motions and maintain a linear storm mode through the day. An increase in storm coverage is anticipated through the lower MS Valley as the primary synoptic cold front pushes into the region by late afternoon. While low to mid-level flow fields are expected to weaken by early evening as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast, adequate shear will likely be in place during the afternoon hours to support organized segments capable of severe gusts and embedded circulations. Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for discrete, pre-line convection across eastern LA into southern and central MS as heating and modest ascent erodes weak capping within the warm sector. Kinematic profiles - characterized by 40 knots of effective bulk shear and 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH - will support supercells capable of all hazards, though coverage and longevity of supercells remains uncertain given disparity between 12z CAM solutions and modest signals in calibrated guidance. ..Moore.. 03/10/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Northern portions of the Isolated Dry Thunder area were nudged eastward and trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest observations and forecast guidance showing less convective initiation along northwest portions of the previous Day 1/Tuesday Outlook. Expansion of the Isolated Dry Thunder area was considered farther to the southwest into the Trans Pecos as well, but showery precipitation appeared favored over extreme southwest Texas and very little if any storm coverage near the Big Bend area. Similarly, the Elevated area was also expanded slightly to the east to account for the anticipated surge of the dryline through much of the Texas Panhandle during peak heating this afternoon. Portions of the central Texas Panhandle will see stronger and drier southwest winds leading to some locally critical conditions. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a critical area being drawn. Portions of the Front Range will see locally Elevated fire weather conditions as well but the areal extent remains limited. A strong cold front will push through the central and into the southern High Plains late tonight with strong winds but higher RHs and cooler temperatures. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of 20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower RH may briefly overlap this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details become clearer. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A weak surface low over eastern KS late this morning will translate northeastward along a front towards northern IL through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes, where surface dewpoints of at least low to mid 60s will likely be present by this evening. Large-scale ascent across this region will remain fairly nebulous, as an upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains. Still, a strengthening low-level jet across MO into IL/IN from late afternoon into this evening should promote scattered supercell development along/near the front in north-central IL. Moderate to locally strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells. Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%) and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update. Convection should eventually grow upscale along/near the front late this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. But, the threat for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds will likely continue with eastward extent across the Midwest/OH Valley, as both sufficient instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will be present across the warm sector. ...Texas into Oklahoma... A closed mid/upper-level low over northern Mexico will move eastward across the Southwest and southern High Plains by this evening while devolving into an open wave. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft and pronounced large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will encourage robust thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon along the length of a surface dryline extending southward across much of west TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization, with an attendant threat for supercells initially. Very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will be possible with this discrete activity, before a transition to more linear structures occurs through the evening. An increase in the severe/damaging wind threat will likely be realized as this mode transition occurs across parts of central TX into southern OK. Some threat for embedded tornadoes will also exist, especially into central TX where greater low-level moisture and shear are forecast. A separate area of severe potential may develop this afternoon/evening across parts of central into northeast TX in the low-level warm advection regime. While weakly forced, there is some chance for at least isolated supercells to develop and pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. This scenario remains uncertain, but 5% tornado probabilities have been expanded eastward to account for this conditional potential. ...Oklahoma/Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley... A dryline will be in place across western OK today, with a cold front forecast to move slowly southward across KS and parts of MO through tonight. While this area will largely remain between stronger large-scale forcing to both the north and south, it appears probable that additional thunderstorms will eventually develop this evening/tonight along/south of the front. Tornadoes and large hail appear possible with any sustained supercells, while damaging winds should occur with line segments that can develop and spread eastward through early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/10/2026Read more