
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat. ...D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains... A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat. ...D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley... More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high. On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday across the Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to deepen across the central/northern Plains through the day Monday ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave. By early Tuesday, this low will begin accelerating eastward, reaching southern Quebec by 12 UTC Wednesday. A cold front trailing the surface cyclone will push south into the Plains and eastward across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Thunderstorm potential will be most pronounced along and ahead of the front, though more isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a dryline across portions of TX, across portions of the Southeast, and over the northern Great Basin. ...Great Lakes... Residual thunderstorms from Monday night may be ongoing by 12 UTC across the Great Lakes region along and north of the surface warm front. Most guidance suggests that northward moisture advection will occur ahead of the approaching cold front as the surface low lifts east/northeast with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely by 21-00 UTC. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the front by early afternoon, and 35-45 knot effective bulk shear should promote organized convection - most likely in the form of organized clusters and/or linear segments. Large hail and severe winds will most likely be the predominant hazards given the expectation for clustered/linear storm modes, though some tornado threat may emerge across the lower Great Lakes region where low-level SRH will be regionally greatest on the northeastern fringe of the returning moisture. ...Southern Plains... A weak surface trough/dryline will likely emerge across the TX Panhandle/western OK southward into west-central TX by late afternoon as a weak lee low deepens over the southern High Plains. Richer low-level moisture will likely be displaced to the east away from the boundary, and warm temperatures at the base of an EML will most likely preclude thunderstorm development until the arrival of the cold front Tuesday evening. However, a few deterministic solutions hint that diurnal heating may be strong enough to support isolated convection along the dryline by late afternoon. Wind profiles across this region hint that organized thunderstorms are possible and could pose a severe threat. While this potential is noted, ensemble support for this scenario is low, and any convection that does develop will most likely struggle to be maintained owing to weak forcing for ascent and fairly dry low/mid-level conditions. ..Moore.. 03/29/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). An embedded impulse will traverse the northern Rockies, supporting the development and eastward progression of a surface low over the northern Plains. The combination of gradient and dry downslope flow across the central Rockies into the High Plains will yield Elevated conditions by Monday afternoon. At least 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours. Wind will be regionally stronger across much of Wyoming (i.e. 25 mph in several locales), suggesting the need for Critical highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of central Arizona into far western New Mexico, where the approach of a mid-level impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a mixed boundary layer and dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more