MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOTHWEST OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest
Texas into sothwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 311926Z - 312200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 21Z, with large hail and
locally damaging gusts possible through early evening. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front moving south across
western OK and the TX Panhandle, with a dryline extending south from
the surface low west of KCDS. Temperatures have warmed into the mid
80s F across the warm sector, with dewpoints holding in the 50s F.
Given cool midlevel temperatures, this is resulting in a deep layer
of steep lapse rates. MLCAPE will continue to rise perhaps into the
1500-2000 J/kg range. Satellite imagery shows CU already beginning
to form beneath the cirrus as of 1930Z.

Storms will likely form near the surface low and sporadically
southward along the dryline into parts of the South Plains after
21Z. These may be initially high based, but backing and
strengthening low-level winds will maintain or increase dewpoints
into the well-mixed boundary layer. The air mass should remain
sufficiently uncapped into southwest OK and northwest TX to
sustained any ongoing cells, although capping will become a factor
after sunset and with eastward extent into the cooler/more moist air
mass.

At least for a few hours, slow-moving cells may produce large hail,
and perhaps a tornado especially near the low or as storms
potentially propagate east along the sinking cold front. The warm
air mass and deep mixed layer suggest severe gust potential as well.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33540111 35030087 35130052 35419990 35829935 36009891
            35889829 35449828 34309894 33749942 33499988 33330050
            33540111 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE...NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO


Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern through the southern tier of
New York State...northwestern Pennsylvania...and northeastern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311749Z - 312015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Organizing thunderstorm development accompanied by a risk
of damaging wind gusts, and perhaps potential to produce a couple of
tornadoes, appears increasingly probable through 4-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early day convection, substantive
boundary-layer destabilization is underway in response to modest
boundary-layer moistening and insolation, southeast and east of the
Lake Erie vicinity.  This is occurring downstream of broad mid/upper
troughing progressing across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes
region, in the presence of broad lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, south of a sharp remnant frontal zone across the Lake
Ontario through southern New England vicinity.  

A small cluster of vigorous thunderstorm activity is already
underway across Ontario, to the north of Lake Erie.  This appears to
have developed near/south of a remnant cyclonic vorticity center
migrating toward Lake Ontario, which convection allowing guidance
suggests may contribute to additional development across
southwestern through the southern tier of New York by 20-22Z.  The
lake breeze may support additional development to the southeast of
Lake Erie, as west-southwesterly low-level flow begins to strengthen
across the lower Great Lakes (including to 40-50+ kt around 850 mb),
downstream of a low-amplitude frontal wave migrating across Lower
Michigan into southwestern Ontario.

Although potential for sustained discrete thunderstorm development
remains uncertain, low-level hodographs may become conducive to the
evolution of low-level mesocyclones with potential to produce a
couple of tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42697874 43247843 43007702 43167592 42617537 42297600
            41877815 41417967 41288056 41598115 42187968 42697874

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Midwest and Great Lakes region...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and related belt of 50-60-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow will move from the central Plains
northeastward across the Midwest during the afternoon and evening on
Thursday. At the same time, an accompanying 50+ kt low-level jet
will overspread the Midwest ahead of a deepening surface low
tracking northeastward across IA into WI. Showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing ahead of the surface low and along/south of an
eastward-extending warm front at the start of the period. 

In the wake of the early-day convection, current indications are
that lower/middle 60s dewpoints will spread northward beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates -- yielding sufficient boundary-layer recovery
ahead of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the surface low
and northward-moving warm front. Despite some uncertainty with the
early-day convection, around 50 kt of effective shear and enlarged
clockwise-turning hodographs will favor supercells and organized
clusters -- posing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. As the details become more clear regarding early-day
convection and related boundary-layer recovery, higher severe
probabilities may eventually be needed.

...Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys...
The latest guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible farther south within a zone of
broadly confluent and moist low-level flow. While relatively weaker
forcing for ascent limits confidence in severe potential with
southward extent, at least subtle midlevel heights falls amid
weak/moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective
shear could support a few strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage and isolated hail during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 03/31/2026

WW 0080 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0080 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 80 SEVERE TSTM OH PA LE 311900Z - 010100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 80
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Ohio
  Northwest Pennsylvania
  Lake Erie

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over northwest Ohio will track eastward
through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of
Findlay OH to 40 miles south southeast of Erie PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Hart

WW 0078 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 78

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MIE
TO 20 NNE FWA TO 45 SE AZO TO 15 SW ARB.

..KERR..03/31/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...IND...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC001-003-009-033-053-075-151-179-312040-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ALLEN               BLACKFORD           
DE KALB              GRANT               JAY                 
STEUBEN              WELLS               


MIC023-059-312040-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRANCH               HILLSDALE           


OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-312040-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                DEFIANCE            FULTON              
HENRY                PAULDING            PUTNAM

WW 78 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 311425Z - 312200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 78
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
925 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Illinois
  Northern Indiana
  Southwest Lower Michigan
  Northwest Ohio
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 925 AM until
  500 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern Illinois will
track eastward through the day across the watch area.  The strongest
storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest
of Valparaiso IN to 70 miles east northeast of Fort Wayne IN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Hart

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Afternoon Update...
The Elevated risk area was trimmed to account for expected higher RH
and precipitation chances in the northern TX Panhandle. Strong
southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) combined with
20-25 percent RH atop a dry fuelscape will maintain an Elevated fire
weather concern. However, widespread cloud cover and scattered light
rainfall could dampen fire weather conditions across parts of the
area. East-central and southeastern NM may experience locally
critical fire weather conditions where RH will decrease to 15-20
percent for a couple of hours within a region of 90th percentile
ERCs. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow
(Wednesday), resulting in rapid surface low development across the
central Plains. Strong gradient flow will support widespread 20-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds west of a dryline. While
Critical highlights were considered, widespread cloudiness will
dampen boundary-layer mixing to a degree, with RH expected to stay
above Critical thresholds (i.e. 20-25 percent RH). Given the
presence of dry fuels and stronger winds, Elevated highlights have
been introduced.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0079 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0079 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 79 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 311820Z - 010100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 79
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central New York
  Northern Pennsylvania
  Lake Erie
  Lake Ontario

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to track across Lake Erie and
into western New York, then spread eastward across the watch through
the afternoon.  The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail.  A tornado or two is also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Jamestown NY to 60 miles southeast of Utica NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Hart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains and Central Plains...
A midlevel trough and accompanying 50-60-kt speed max will advance
eastward from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains by
Wednesday evening. As related height falls overspread the High
Plains, a lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern CO, while a
southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains.
Ample diurnal heating and parcel residence time along the dryline
will promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20-00Z time
frame -- aided by the strengthening large-scale ascent. Steep
midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML and lower 60s dewpoints
will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector. This, combined
with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters/line segments initially. 

The risk of large to very large hail (some 2+ inch diameter) should
be greatest with these initial semi-discrete storms over the
southern/central High Plains. With time, the strengthening DCVA and
expanding cold pools will promote upscale growth into a
north/south-oriented band of storms with embedded supercell
structures -- given elongated hodographs and a substantial
line-orthogonal component to the deep-layer shear. Large hail will
remain possible, though scattered severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will become the main concerns. Additionally, a 40-50+ kt
low-level jet will strengthen ahead of the upscale-growing
convection into the evening, resulting in expanding clockwise-curved
hodographs and additional concerns for a few tornadoes. Higher
tornado probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence in
where the risk will be maximized spatially. Storms will track
eastward across the I-35 corridor into the overnight hours and
continue to pose a damaging-wind risk and perhaps embedded
tornadoes. However, confidence in the overall severe-risk decreases
with eastward extent.  

Farther north, additional thunderstorm development is expected near
a warm front extending across northeastern KS and vicinity during
the evening/overnight hours. While buoyancy will be weaker here,
40-50 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level shear in the
warm-advection regime will support organized clusters and
potentially a couple supercells. The primary concern with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. 

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid 
upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote
widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a
subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30
kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely
organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of
severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though
confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to
upgrade at this time.

..Weinman.. 03/31/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311700Z - 011200Z

...Morning Update...
A southward extension was made to the Elevated area in southeast NM
and West TX to account for downslope winds east of the Sacramento
and Guadalupe Mountains. Westerly lee-surface winds up to 15 mph
amid 10-15 percent RH are expected atop dry fuels. A small part of
the southeastern TX Panhandle received appreciable rainfall
yesterday evening, thus has been trimmed from the Elevated risk
area. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information. 

In northeast UT and northwest CO, breezy southwesterly winds of
15-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH will occur over the Colorado Plateau
and Uinta Basin ahead of precipitation arrival. However, cloud cover
should alleviate broader fire concerns across the region, precluding
the introduction of elevated highlights.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies today,
supporting surface low development along the TX Panhandle/OK border.
Dry downslope flow will occur along the southern High Plains,
resulting 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH, warranting Elevated highlights. Isolated high-based
thunderstorms may also develop ahead of a frontal boundary atop a
dry boundary layer and receptive fuels. Given the potential for
lightning induced ignitions with these storms, as well as the
potential for ignition exacerbation from erratic thunderstorm wind
gusts, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN.  These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.  See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.

...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA.  The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating.  Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail.  A tornado or two is also
possible.  Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.

...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon.  A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon.  These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening. 
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.

..Hart/Jewell.. 03/31/2026