Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is
forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason,
thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.

...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward
in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place
into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development
will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains
eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for
thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area
as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be
possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the
spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this
time.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds.  A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.

... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...

As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution. 

If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.

... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...

Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.

... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...

Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.

... Southwest Texas ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface low
will transition northeastward across the Great Lakes region on
D2/Saturday while upper-level ridging builds across the West. A
trailing cold front will progress eastward across portions of the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and southward across southern
Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains behind this
front. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are
expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.

...Portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into Southern New Mexico...
Latest high-res guidance suggests that sustained northeasterly to
easterly surface winds around 15 mph along the southern periphery of
the aforementioned surface high may briefly overlap reduced RH
values of 15-20% Saturday afternoon to promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns from the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New
Mexico. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained
surface winds of 15+ mph and RH values below 20% as well as the
potential for light precipitation on D1/Friday across Texas. Trends
will continue to be monitored for future outlooks.

..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.

...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.

...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon. 

A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.

...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.

...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.

..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...