MD 0534 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

Valid 252321Z - 260045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail and wind threat continues for northern
portions of WW 134, but thunderstorm intensity downstream into
southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas is uncertain. Trends are
being monitored for the need for additional watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a collection of discrete cells and
a convective band have shown periodic intensification across
northern KS and southern NE. Occasional nickel to quarter sized hail
reports and sporadic gusts between 60-70 mph have been noted over
the past hour, and regional VWPs continue to sample favorable wind
profiles for maintenance of strong/severe convection. These trends
suggest that the threat for severe hail/wind should continue for the
next hour or so. However, latest surface observations show
downstream temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints
between 45-55 F. These observations support recent RAP mesoanalyses
that depict increasing inhibition and diminishing MLCAPE across
southeast NE and northeast KS. These thermodynamic conditions cast
uncertainty on downstream convective intensity. While the favorable
kinematic environment may compensate for the thermodynamic
deficiencies, the expectation is that this activity will generally
weaken with eastward extent after 00 UTC. Downstream watch issuance
will be considered if a weakening trend is not observed over the
next hour or so.

..Moore.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39089804 39319791 39819753 40829708 41259652 41279603
            40989573 40389551 39979546 39379565 39069604 38909650
            38939770 38939798 39089804 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 0144 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 144

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..THORNTON..04/26/26

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC033-131-260140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAWFORD             SEBASTIAN           


OKC005-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-037-049-051-061-063-
067-069-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-095-099-101-107-109-111-121-
123-125-127-133-135-137-260140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                BRYAN               CADDO               
CANADIAN             CARTER              CHOCTAW             
CLEVELAND            COAL                COMANCHE            
COTTON               CREEK               GARVIN              
GRADY                HASKELL             HUGHES              
JEFFERSON            JOHNSTON            LATIMER             
LE FLORE             LINCOLN             LOVE                
MCCLAIN              MCCURTAIN           MCINTOSH            
MARSHALL             MURRAY              MUSKOGEE            
OKFUSKEE             OKLAHOMA            OKMULGEE            
PITTSBURG            PONTOTOC            POTTAWATOMIE

WW 144 TORNADO OK TX 252050Z - 260400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern and Central Oklahoma
  North Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense storm development is expected through late
afternoon and early evening, initially and especially across
south-central Oklahoma and far northern Texas. Robust supercells
capable of very large hail are expected, along with heightened
tornado potential, especially in vicinity of the warm front.
Damaging wind potential will also steadily increase later this
evening as storms progress east-southeastward across the region.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Wichita Falls
TX to 65 miles northeast of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.

...Guyer

WW 0143 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 143

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DDC TO
25 ENE RSL TO 40 NNE CNK TO 30 S OLU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534

..MOORE..04/25/26

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GID...OUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC007-009-027-029-033-041-047-053-077-079-095-097-105-113-143-
145-151-155-157-159-169-173-185-191-201-260040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               BARTON              CLAY                
CLOUD                COMANCHE            DICKINSON           
EDWARDS              ELLSWORTH           HARPER              
HARVEY               KINGMAN             KIOWA               
LINCOLN              MCPHERSON           OTTAWA              
PAWNEE               PRATT               RENO                
REPUBLIC             RICE                SALINE              
SEDGWICK             STAFFORD            SUMNER              
WASHINGTON           


OKC003-011-039-043-047-053-059-071-073-083-093-103-119-151-153-
260040-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WW 143 SEVERE TSTM KS NE OK 251945Z - 260200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Kansas
  Far Southern Nebraska
  Northern Oklahoma

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm are expected to develop
through mid/late afternoon near a surface boundary, and progress
east-southeastward through early evening. Large hail and damaging
winds are expected to be the primary hazards, but a tornado could
occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
of Concordia KS to 50 miles southwest of Enid OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Guyer

WW 0145 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 145

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MOORE..04/25/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-015-047-087-143-260040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CARROLL             FRANKLIN            
MADISON              WASHINGTON          


KSC015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-260040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER               CHAUTAUQUA          CHEROKEE            
COWLEY               CRAWFORD            ELK                 
GREENWOOD            LABETTE             MONTGOMERY          
NEOSHO               WILSON              


MOC009-011-057-097-109-119-145-260040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY                BARTON              DADE

WW 145 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 252225Z - 260500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Arkansas
  Southeast Kansas
  Southwest Missouri
  Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
  CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop east/northeast
through the evening. These storms will mainly pose a risk for large
hail in the 1.0-2.0 inch range. A few strong to severe wind gusts
also are possible. While the overall tornado risk is low, a surface
boundary across west-central Arkansas could lift northward this
evening and a tornado along this boundary is conditionally possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Bartlesville OK to 35 miles north northeast of Fayetteville AR.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Leitman

WW 0146 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0146 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 146 TORNADO AR 252245Z - 260600Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Arkansas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 545
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms developing near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border
will develop east/southeast this evening. Isolated supercells
developing near a surface boundary will pose a risk for a few
tornadoes, very large hail up to 3 inches diameter, and scattered
damaging wind gusts this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Hot Springs AR to 25
miles southeast of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.

...Leitman

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

...Synopsis...
A lingering subtropical jet and lee surface troughing will continue
to bring dry and breezy conditions and resultant adverse fire
weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains
Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Upper-level troughing deepens across the
eastern U.S. by midweek, while a surface low and cold front provides
much needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
Another upper-level short wave reaches the Southwest on Day
6/Thursday, while a surface low evolves ahead of this mid-level
feature across west TX. This would support widespread rainfall
across NM and much of the Southern Plains on Thursday night into Day
7/Friday morning, as low-level moisture makes marked westward
progress well into eastern NM, mitigating the fire weather threat
across the region.

...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A fire weather threat will persist across portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday as robust, 55-65 knot
mid-level flow from the west-southwest continues over this region
early next week. Subsequent lee surface troughing in concert with
deep layer westerly winds aloft will support dry, westerly flow and
fire weather concerns across much of NM and the southern High Plains
where broad 40% probabilities were largely maintained.

At the surface, a cold front should sweep southward east of the
Continental Divide midweek. Latest forecast guidance still suggests
an improving fire weather scenario unfolding across the Southern
Plains by the Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday time frame. Widespread
rainfall is possible across much of the Southern Plains and into
portions of the Southwest ahead of an advancing upper-level trough
moving into northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday. A troughing
pattern across the eastern U.S. should similarly ameliorate, at
least temporarily, fire weather concerns for the Appalachians,
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front and attendant
precipitation push through the region.

..Williams.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds
are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the
southern Plains and ArkLaTex.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The main
adjustments made to the outlook (albeit minor) were to slightly
extend the moderate risk-driven hail probabilities to the southwest
to align with the current position of the surface boundary. The
latest high-resolution guidance consensus has consistently depicted
some of the most robust storms to form and anchor along this
boundary. With current mesoanalysis already showing 4000+ J/kg
MLCAPE colocated across far south-central OK, the current thinking
is that intense supercells traversing this boundary will produce
severe hail in the 3-4 inch range, and a couple of stones above 4
inches in diameter cannot be completely ruled out. Tornadoes may
also occur, with the best chance of a strong to intense tornado
being with a boundary-anchoring supercell that can remain discrete
and dominant.

..Squitieri.. 04/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/

...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.

40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas. 

Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.

...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.