SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
Great Basin early this evening. Large-scale ascent is spreading
downstream ahead of this feature into southern WY where isolated
thunderstorms are currently noted, especially over Carbon County,
just east of Rawlins. This activity appears to be aided by the 500mb
speed max and steep 0-6km lapse rates. 00z soundings from RIW, GJT,
and LKN all support this with 8-9 C/km values, but only ~0.35 inch
PW. Very weak buoyancy will continue to support lighting with weak
convection this evening.

Later tonight, surface warm front will advance north into the Ozarks
and 850mb warm advection will increase along the cool side of the
boundary. While 00z sounding from SGF exhibited a very strong cap,
and negligible instability, weak MUCAPE should gradually increase
later tonight and isolated elevated convection is expected to
develop across the MO/IL region.

..Darrow.. 03/03/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

An upper-level trough will move into the West and deepen Day
3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. Moisture return will increase on the
southern/central Plains with a sharpening dryline on the
southern/central High Plains. Two upper lows are likely to develop
within the troughing with one tracking to the northeast Day 5/Friday
- Day 6/Saturday with the other upper low likely shifting over
southern/Baja California. 

...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday: Southern/central High Plains...
Strong flow aloft arrives Day 4/Thursday across the Southwest onto
the southern/central High Plains as the upper-level trough moves
into the Intermountain West. Lee troughing and a sharpening dryline
will develop on the southern/central High Plains with stronger flow
intersecting a thermal ridge. Ensemble forecast guidance indicates
70%+ probabilities of critical fire weather conditions developing on
portions of the southern High Plains and along eastern slopes of the
southern Rockies. South-southwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph amid
minimum RH of 8-20% are forecast across southern/central/eastern New
Mexico into west Texas, southeast Colorado, and western Kansas. High
clouds and the dryline position on Day 4/Thursday along with
possible light precipitation on Day 2/Tuesday night in northern
portions of the 40/70% areas are sources of forecast uncertainty.
However, confidence is high that critical conditions will develop on
portions of the southern/central High Plains and onto eastern slopes
of the southern Rockies. 

Along the dryline on Day 4/Thursday, dry thunderstorm development
cannot be ruled out. The risk of dry thunderstorms would likely be
confined to along/near the dryline with deeper moisture and wetter
storms farther east of the dryline. 

Elevated and critical fire weather conditions are expected on Day
5/Friday across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. However, forecast
thunderstorm development on Day 4/Thursday along/east of the dryline
will dictate the expanse of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas on
Day 5/Friday. A 70% area will likely be needed in subsequent
outlooks, but the forecast uncertainty regarding the dryline and
potential precipitation precludes expanding and introducing higher
probabilities at this time.

..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...