Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Gulf Coast States...

An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging
across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast
states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F
dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and
southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to
weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain
meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States...

Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day
6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun.
Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this
feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for
some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast
vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the
developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture
return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in
thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across
the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large
spread among guidance.

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 7 08:55:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 7 08:55:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low/trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday,
approaching the Rio Grand Valley in western TX by early Tuesday.
Downstream, upper riding is forecast across the Gulf Basin. As a
surface lee trough develops across the central/southern Plains,
southerly low-level flow will allow for modified Gulf moisture to
spread across southern/southeastern portions of TX toward the Lower
MS Valley (dewpoints in the 40s-50s F). Some scant elevated
instability may develop across the TX Big Bend vicinity during the
afternoon into evening as meager midlevel cooling occurs in
proximity to the upper trough over Mexico. However, thunderstorm
potential appears low given poor moisture further west across TX and
warm 850-700 mb temperatures.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the
East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the
Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern
Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will
persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable
moisture return likely over the southern Plains. 

A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will
crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low
development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central
Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only
dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should
limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no
highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over
this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few
weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated
highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes
evident in later guidance.

Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida
Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting
localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 02/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low
meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded
mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central
Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains
region. 

Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts
widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with
downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By
peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the
Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with
the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical
highlights appear warranted.

Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas
Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least
a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance
of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the
southern High Plains.

Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with
the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS.
RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower
values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be
relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook.
Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized
wildfire-spread potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...AZ...

Forecast guidance has trended further south with a closed upper low
and attendant shortwave trough moving over northwest Mexico on
Sunday. As a result, forecast thermodynamic profiles show a somewhat
drier profile, especially in the midlevels. While cooling aloft will
support steepening midlevel lapse rates and development of minor
elevated instability, thunderstorm potential appears to be somewhat
lower compared to this time yesterday. Will maintain the 10 percent
general thunderstorm area across southeast AZ for now, but this may
be removed in subsequent outlooks if current trends are maintained. 

Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm
activity.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...AZ/NM...
A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of 
Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak
warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later
this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the
afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below
100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge
separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to
be below 10 percent.

In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast
AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500
J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of
the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift
should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the
degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more
aggressive spectrum.

..Grams.. 02/07/2026