
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward. This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe probabilities have been removed with this update. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower 60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast where the convective line is further displaced from stronger forcing/low-level mass response. A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Southeast... An energetic mid-level trough accompanied by a robust surface cold front will move into the Eastern Seaboard Sunday. Latest model guidance depicts current band of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front stretching from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic diminishing through tonight into D2/Sunday. A dry, post-frontal environment with downsloping support from the Appalachians will encompass the Southeast on Sunday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of 25-35% will allow for elevated fire weather conditions to impact southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas Sunday, where precipitation will be absent or limited. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the eastern US will continue to intensify as it moves offshore D2/Sunday. Strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through the day. Considerable rainfall associated with the trough and an advancing surface cold front will likely mitigate fire weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic. However, rain will be less common over portions of southern Georgia, the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas and northern Florida. As the front moves offshore, dry northerly flow is likely with gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35%. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible along the immediate coastal plain. However, fuels here remain only marginally receptive to fire spread in areas without recent precipitation. Thus, broader fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is expected to limit lightning potential. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night. The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic through the day. In association with these features, shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Southern Plains... A dry, post-frontal air mass continues to filter into the Southern Plains. Sustained north winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) combined and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across a broad swath of the Southern Plains through the afternoon. The best alignment of breezy north winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels will be across south-central TX and the Edwards Plateau areas, where the lack of recent rainfall events have contributed to a more receptive fuelscape. Although some rainfall had fallen across portions of northwestern TX, TX Panhandle and southwestern OK in recent days, pockets of drier fine fuels that avoided wetting rainfall could support a locally elevated fire threat through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the US today and tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward through the Plains and southeast States with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong high pressure will rapidly build over the Rockies and western states. A dry post-frontal air mass will develop in the wake of the front, with the driest portions expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope and gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH values as low as 15-20% this afternoon. While some rain has fallen over the eastern portions of south-central TX, overall fuels remain quite dry. This will promote a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will quickly diminish this evening as winds weaken and colder temperatures settle into region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will continue through the early afternoon from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower 60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast where the convective line is further displaced from stronger forcing/low-level mass response. A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak. ..Smith/Halbert.. 01/10/2026Read more