Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during
the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the
country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may
develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and
possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend.
These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the
TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the
Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a
developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain
shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across
portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday morning. 

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced
southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the
weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions
of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance
varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure will spread across much of the CONUS on Monday
behind a prior cold frontal passage. Continental trajectories will
keep Gulf moisture cut-off, and a cold/stable airmass will preclude
thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated Sunday as
west-southwesterly surface flow develops across portions of Texas
and Oklahoma owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast. 


...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma...
Widespread downslope west-southwesterly winds across west/central
Texas will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the
area, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Sustained winds
of 15-20 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH) are forecast, overlapping fuels
that are more than receptive to wildfire ignition and spread. At
least Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with locally
Critical conditions possible with intermittent periods of stronger
surface winds.

..Halbert.. 01/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated
by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily
characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface
pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great
Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures,
some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon
over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. 

...Central and Southern Texas...
Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by
early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are
expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central
TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15%
will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for
ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting
to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions,
Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical
conditions possible with the most intense surface winds.

...West-Central High Plains...
Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and
Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low
as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may
pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to
be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low
30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional
highlights.

..Halbert.. 01/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...