SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface front has surged into central TX, arcing across northern LA
into central MS early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this boundary over east TX and across northern
IL. This activity should gradually increase in areal coverage as the
front advances toward the northwest Gulf Coast. 00z soundings from
SHV and LCH exhibit sufficient buoyancy for lighting within deep
convection, but profiles do not favor particularly robust
thunderstorms and severe is not anticipated.

Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters are currently noted across
the FL Straits within a seasonally high PW air mass characterized by
weak buoyancy. Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable
short-wave trough over the eastern Gulf Basin. This feature should
continue to support convection across the Straits and the southern
FL Peninsula tonight.

..Darrow.. 12/14/2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions. 

Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.

..Elliott.. 12/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...