MD 0479 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 130... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA


Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas...northwestern
Missouri...and extreme southern Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 130...

Valid 172031Z - 172200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 130 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across portions of Tornado
Watch 130.

DISCUSSION...Two lines of supercells have become more well
established over the past hour from southeastern Kansas into
southern Iowa, with strengthening low-level rotation noted with some
storms and a tornado recently reported in Atchison County, Kansas.
The environment near/ahead of these storms is within a zone of
favorable low-level moisture and increasing low-level shear, with
the latest mesoanalysis and EAX/INX VAD profiles indicating around
100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH and effective STP of 2+. With a coincident
favorable thermodynamic environment, the potential for tornadoes
(and perhaps a strong tornado) is increasing.

..Chalmers.. 04/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38839329 38259393 37219490 37019550 37009662 37529695
            38019688 38489648 39019594 40289451 40669396 40769333
            40639276 40459252 40199239 39789242 39299291 38839329 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

MD 0476 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 129... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA


Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Iowa into southeastern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...

Valid 171949Z - 172145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail, wind, and tornadoes
continues within WW129.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased along the cold
front in central Iowa into southeastern Minnesota. Mode is rather
mixed, with clusters and more semi-discrete supercells along and
ahead of the front. Reports of large hail 1-1.75 inches in diameter
and a tornado were reported near Olmstead, MN. The threat for large
hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind will continue over the next
several hours. Daytime heating and warm air advection has yielded
MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. The 18z RAOB from DVN shows this well,
with analyzed 2100 J/kg MLCAPE, steep low to mid-level lapse rates
and an enlarged clock-wise low-level hodograph.

As the front moves eastward and mode shifts to become more linear,
the main threats will shift to damaging wind and continued potential
for line embedded tornadoes. With any supercells that can maintain
ahead of the line (particularly from eastern Iowa into southern
Wisconsin), large hail, and strong tornado potential will continue.

..Thornton.. 04/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44689181 44719166 44089098 43199071 42469086 41279180
            40809269 40839376 41469364 43379278 44239250 44559207
            44689181 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

WW 0128 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 128

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LSE TO
10 WNW EAU TO 60 NNW EAU TO 25 E DLH.

..WENDT..04/17/26

ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH...GRB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

WIC003-005-007-017-051-069-085-099-107-113-119-125-129-172240-

WI 
.    WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLAND              BARRON              BAYFIELD            
CHIPPEWA             IRON                LINCOLN             
ONEIDA               PRICE               RUSK                
SAWYER               TAYLOR              VILAS               
WASHBURN             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 128 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 171420Z - 172200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East-Central and Far Southeast Minnesota
  Northwest and North-Central Wisconsin

* Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 920 AM until
  500 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms over southeast MN is
forecast to continue northeastward. The overall environment ahead of
this line is expected to become more supportive of strong to severe
storms with time. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated
as well. Large hail is the primary severe risk, although isolated
strong gusts are possible as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 105 miles north of Eau
Claire WI to 10 miles east of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.

...Mosier

WW 129 TORNADO IA IL MN MO WI 171740Z - 180100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Iowa
  Northern and West-Central Illinois
  Southeast Minnesota
  Far Northeast Missouri
  Central and Southern Wisconsin

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...A very moist and unstable airmass exists ahead of a cold
front progressing eastward/southeastward across the region.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the warm sector ahead
of the front, where discrete supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes,
are possible. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front
as well, with large hail and strong gusts the primary risk with
these storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Des
Moines IA to 55 miles east of Madison WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.

...Mosier

WW 0129 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 129

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E LWD TO
25 NE OXV TO 10 SE ALO TO 35 SSW LSE TO 25 WNW LSE TO 15 WSW EAU.

..WENDT..04/17/26

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MPX...GRB...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 129 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC007-011-015-037-067-071-073-085-099-103-109-111-131-141-155-
161-177-187-195-201-172240-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE                BUREAU              CARROLL             
DE KALB              HANCOCK             HENDERSON           
HENRY                JO DAVIESS          LA SALLE            
LEE                  MCDONOUGH           MCHENRY             
MERCER               OGLE                PUTNAM              
ROCK ISLAND          STEPHENSON          WARREN              
WHITESIDE            WINNEBAGO           


IAC005-007-011-013-019-031-043-045-051-055-057-061-065-087-095-
097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-123-135-139-157-163-171-177-179-
183-172240-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLAMAKEE            APPANOOSE           BENTON              
BLACK HAWK           BUCHANAN            CEDAR               
CLAYTON              CLINTON             DAVIS

WW 0130 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 130

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W AVK TO
AVK TO 20 WSW EMP TO 10 NE TOP TO 35 NE STJ TO 25 E LWD.

..WENDT..04/17/26

ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...DDC...SGF...OUN...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-077-
091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-173-191-205-207-209-
172240-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                ANDERSON            BOURBON             
BUTLER               CHASE               CHAUTAUQUA          
CHEROKEE             COFFEY              COWLEY              
CRAWFORD             DOUGLAS             ELK                 
FRANKLIN             GREENWOOD           HARPER              
JOHNSON              LABETTE             LEAVENWORTH         
LINN                 LYON                MIAMI               
MONTGOMERY           NEOSHO              OSAGE               
SEDGWICK             SUMNER              WILSON              
WOODSON              WYANDOTTE           


MOC001-011-013-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-079-081-
083-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-159-165-171-175-177-185-195-
197-211-217-172240-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WW 130 TORNADO KS MO OK 171835Z - 180200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  South-Central and Eastern Kansas
  Northern and West-Central Missouri
  Northern and Western Oklahoma

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway along a southeastward
progressing cold front that extends from northwest Missouri into
northwest Oklahoma. The environment ahead of this front is very
unstable and strongly sheared, and capable of supporting robust
supercells. All hazards are possible with these supercells,
including very large to giant hail (3 to 4" in diameter), strong
wind gusts, and tornadoes. A transition from hail as the primary
risk to strong gusts is anticipated as storm undergo upscale growth
into a robust convective line. Gusts from 70 to 80 mph will be
possible within this line, which is expected to move from
south-central Kansas into central Missouri.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Chillicothe
MO to 25 miles south of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.

...Mosier

WW 131 TORNADO IL MO LM 172030Z - 180400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Northeast Illinois
  Northeast Missouri
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have intensified across northeast MO, with
some additional intensification possible as they continued
northeastward into central IL. The airmass across the region
supports supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail and tornadoes. Another round of storms will follow in the
wake of the ongoing storms later this evening as a cold front moves
across the region. Wind gusts will be the primary risk with the
storms along the front, but line-embedded circulations are possible
as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Valparaiso
IN to 30 miles southeast of Jefferson City MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW 130...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.

...Mosier

WW 0131 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 131

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WENDT..04/17/26

ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-027-031-039-043-051-053-057-061-063-
075-083-089-091-093-095-097-105-107-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
129-133-135-137-143-149-163-167-169-171-173-175-179-189-197-203-
172240-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BOND                BROWN               
CALHOUN              CASS                CHRISTIAN           
CLINTON              COOK                DE WITT             
DUPAGE               FAYETTE             FORD                
FULTON               GREENE              GRUNDY              
IROQUOIS             JERSEY              KANE                
KANKAKEE             KENDALL             KNOX                
LAKE                 LIVINGSTON          LOGAN               
MCLEAN               MACON               MACOUPIN            
MADISON              MARION              MARSHALL            
MASON                MENARD              MONROE              
MONTGOMERY           MORGAN              PEORIA              
PIKE                 ST. CLAIR           SANGAMON            
SCHUYLER             SCOTT               SHELBY              
STARK                TAZEWELL            WASHINGTON          
WILL                 WOODFORD

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for progression
of the cold front this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast is
unchanged. See MD 475 for short-term details of evolving tornado
risk along the Illinois/Wisconsin border.

..Wendt.. 04/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. 

A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.

...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.

Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.

Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front.  Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.

...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX. 

With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves
off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, a
narrow corridor of diurnal heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints
(higher over the FL Peninsula) ahead of the front should support
isolated thunderstorms from the coastal Carolinas southward across
parts of the FL Peninsula. Weak/narrow buoyancy profiles will limit
thunderstorm intensity and the severe risk.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

...Southern/Central Plains
A Critical area was added for portions of western/central Nebraska
as west-northwest sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of
15-20% are expected. The Critical area may need to be expanded in
Nebraska if ensemble high-resolution forecast guidance continues to
trend towards higher probabilities for critical RH. The Elevated
area was expanded across Nebraska, central Kansas, southern South
Dakota, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma, and west Texas amid dry
and breezy post-frontal conditions, with recent/forecast
precipitation helping to delineate the expansion of the Elevated
area.  

...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Elevated area in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic was also
expanded slightly, with pre-frontal elevated winds/RH appearing more
likely along/east of the Appalachians in portions of Virginia, West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the southern/central
Appalachians tomorrow late afternoon into tomorrow night. While not
a conducive or typical dry thunderstorm environment, the expected
lightning with 50%+ probability of receiving less than 0.25" of
rainfall on eastern slopes of the Appalachians onto the Piedmont
Plateau could result in ignitions. Given the following dry and
breezy post-frontal conditions on Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, there
is concern for increased spread potential of any existing and new
ignitions.

..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.

...Central Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions. 

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe. 

...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms. 

...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.

...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR ORIENTATION OF THE 45% HAIL PROBABILITIES

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. 

A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.

...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.

Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.

Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front.  Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.

...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX. 

With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 04/17/2026