SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
A generally benign fire weather pattern is expected across eastern
CONUS through early next week as successive cold fronts and
attendant precipitation along with cool/cold conditions mitigate
significant fire weather potential. Limited atmospheric moisture and
northward displacement of passing mid/upper level short waves should
keep dry conditions in place across the Southwest and portions of
the Southern Plains through the weekend. Latest model guidance
suggests another offshore wind event across southern CA Day
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday as surface high pressure settles into the
Intermountain West. However, fuels are expected to remain
unreceptive/marginal through the event, limiting the impact from dry
offshore flow. Stronger lee cyclogenesis is possible on Day
6/Saturday across the central/southern High Plains as a mid-level 
wave descends southeastward from the Northern Rockies. The
subsequent dry and breezy conditions from a tightening surface
pressure gradient could bring a fire weather threat to portions of
eastern NM and West TX, but uncertainty in timing/position of
surface low and overlap with sufficiently dry fuels precludes
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 12/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Accelerating mid-level westerly flow over the southern and central
Rockies and accompanying lee cyclogenesis across the central
southern High Plains will enhance dry, downslope flow across eastern
NM and the TX Panhandle Tuesday. West-southwest winds at the surface
of up to 20 mph along with relative humidity falling to around 15%
are expected across portions of eastern NM Tuesday afternoon, with
breezy south-southwest winds but slightly higher relative humidity
extending into the TX Panhandle and far western OK. However, fuels
remain unsupportive of significant wildfire spread across the
region, limiting impacts from dry/breezy conditions.

..Williams.. 12/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/

...Synopsis...
Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western
half of the CONUS, a belt of moderate midlevel westerly flow will
overspread the southern Rockies during the day. In response, a lee
cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, further enhancing
the downslope flow across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle
/South Plains. While around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly
surface winds and 15-25 percent RH are expected, cold antecedent
conditions and limited/marginal fuels should mitigate most
fire-weather concerns. This will also be the case to the southeast
of the lee cyclone over western OK -- where dry/breezy southerly
return flow is expected amid marginal/unreceptive fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required for
the severe-risk area. Adjustments to the thunder line were made
across east/northeast TX to account for recent convective trends
where weak elevated thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak
mid-level wave. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across the
greater Texarkana region over the next few hours before gradually
diminishing by late afternoon. See the discussion below for
additional details.

..Moore.. 12/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/

...Gulf Coast...

A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward
through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the
Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper
shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across
the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the
aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area
of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread
the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low
to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL
and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late
tonight. 

Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability
should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE
generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms
moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before
becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless,
transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or
localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue
north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at
the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for
more details).

Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the
TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This
activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent
and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer.
Severe storms are not expected with this activity.

...Coastal Carolinas...

A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the
Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the
period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer
moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last
couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and
stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z
Tuesday.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Progressive mid-level flow will amplify and persist over the US
Wednesday as broad troughing intensifies over the East. Weak ridging
over the central US will be enhanced by an upstream trough over the
Rockies and Great Basin moving toward the Plains into early
Thursday. At the surface, a cold and dry air mass is expected over
much of the country in the wake of a prior frontal passage. This
front will continue south over much of the Gulf and off the coast of
the Atlantic, as a second arctic front moves south over the central
US.

The only exception to widespread offshore flow will be across
portions of the western Gulf where the front will stall near the
TX/LA Coasts. Ahead of the second upper trough, warm-air advection
will support some southerly flow along the coast as a weak surface
wave develops over the Gulf. Weak elevated buoyancy and ascent will
support thunderstorm development across portions of southeast TX and
southern LA Wednesday afternoon/evening into early Thursday morning.
A stronger elevated storm or two with small hail is possible early
Thursday, but given the limited buoyancy, a sustained severe risk
appears unlikely.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to
the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are
possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...FL Gulf Coast...
A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves
eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads
the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a
stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong
coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early
Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and
upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over
the eastern half of the US.

Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and
deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified
Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a
relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the
more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first
few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend
region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula.
Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may
overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear
favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated
damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should
end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates
offshore.

...Outer Banks...
As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward,
the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly
narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the
near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most
model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a
brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the
surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a
brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will
be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate
coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the
short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and
trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025