Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains and Northwest. ...Portions of the central/northern High Plains... Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle. Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and 20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the possibility of a future upgrade. Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds (15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%. ...Southern Great Basin... Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and abnormally dry fuels align. ...Northeastern New Mexico... While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to portions of northeastern New Mexico. ...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico... Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep, dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive fuels. ..Chalmers.. 03/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
