MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN


Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa...and
southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271752Z - 272015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon with
the primary hazard being hail up to 1.0-1.5" in diameter.

DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon water-vapor imagery indicates a
vigorous vorticity maximum over northern IA into southern MN,
lifting to northeast. At the surface, 17z analysis placed a low over
south-central MN with a cold front trailing to the south-southwest,
and a trough/wind shift extending southeast into eastern IA.

Convection is in the process of deepening as of 17z along the cold
front in north-central IA amidst a marginally unstable air mass with
estimated MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg, per objective analysis. Breaks in
the clouds ahead of the cold front will allow for further
destabilization this afternoon, especially given the height
falls/mid-level cooling overspreading the region from the
west/southwest. As such a few strong to potentially severe storms
are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface low and cold
front this afternoon with the primary hazard being hail up to
1.0-1.5" in diameter. 

Veered low-level winds (evident in RAP forecast soundings) are
expected to limit a more robust tornado threat, at least along the
cold front. A potentially more favorable low-level wind profile
likely exists along/east of the surface wind shift preceding the
cold front. The most likely location for a brief spin up is along
and to the southeast of the surface low track where local maximum in
surface vorticity will coincide with 0-3-km CAPE of 100-125 J/kg.

..Mead/Guyer.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43249360 44199277 44519158 44128998 42799001 42249125
            42079218 42519343 43249360 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS


Mesoscale Discussion 0568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...central Missouri into west-central and southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 271656Z - 271900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A surface-based, severe-storm threat is expected to
increase this afternoon. All hazards are possible, including the
potential for strong tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will likely be
required.

DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection remains active along the
immediate cold side of an outflow boundary stretching from the St.
Louis metropolitan area into central MO near Warsaw. To the south of
that boundary, cloud breaks have allowed boundary-layer temperatures
to warm into the upper 70s, which when coupled with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates is resulting in
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg with decreasing cap strength. 

Latest model guidance suggests that the influx of the moderately
unstable air mass into the ongoing storms will support a gradual
uptick in intensity by early afternoon, confined largely along the
current position of the outflow boundary. The deleterious effects of
the active cold pools casts uncertainty of the preferred storm mode
immediately along the boundary, in an otherwise increasingly
favorable environment for tornadic supercells as afternoon
progresses. However, even in a mixed-mode case, the overall
environmental evolution will support all severe-weather hazards,
including the potential for strong tornadoes.

..Mead/Guyer.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38679274 39019152 39328990 38778948 38168963 37969245
            37929327 38519334 38679274 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid Mississippi
Valley and Mid-South today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Southern and Central Illinois
  Central and Eastern Missouri
  Western Kentucky
  Western Indiana
  Northern and Central Arkansas
  Western Tennessee

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a couple intense
  Widespread damaging winds
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid
  Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this
  evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes
  (EF-3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered
  large to very large hail.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

WW 159 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 271610Z - 272300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Illinois
  Southern and Central Indiana
  Northern Kentucky

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
  600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Elevated storms will spread generally eastward and
potentially pose a hail risk while damaging wind risk may increase
into western/southern Indiana as well as an upstream linear cluster
of storms moves into the region.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east of
Lafayette IN to 20 miles west southwest of Owensboro KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer

WW 0159 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 159

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..HART..04/27/26

ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC185-271840-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WABASH               


INC011-013-021-023-027-037-045-051-055-057-063-081-083-093-097-
101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-129-133-147-153-157-163-165-167-
171-173-271840-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE                BROWN               CLAY                
CLINTON              DAVIESS             DUBOIS              
FOUNTAIN             GIBSON              GREENE              
HAMILTON             HENDRICKS           JOHNSON             
KNOX                 LAWRENCE            MARION              
MARTIN               MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
MORGAN               ORANGE              OWEN                
PARKE                PIKE                POSEY               
PUTNAM               SPENCER             SULLIVAN            
TIPPECANOE           VANDERBURGH         VERMILLION          
VIGO                 WARREN              WARRICK

WW 0160 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 160 TORNADO IL MO 271750Z - 280200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Illinois
  Eastern and Southern Missouri

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A remnant boundary left over by overnight/early morning
storms will be an initial focus for intense storm development
including supercells, with additional storms developing later
afternoon across broader parts of the region. All severe weather
hazards all possible, including strong/intense tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Springfield MO to
45 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

...Guyer

WW 158 SEVERE TSTM IL 271330Z - 272100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
830 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Southern Illinois

* Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 830 AM until
  400 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A bowing linear cluster will continue to steadily move
eastward with additional development to its southeast. Large hail
and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially as the air
mass continues to warm/destabilize across southern and central
Illinois through late morning and afternoon.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northwest of Quincy IL to 40 miles east southeast of Mattoon IL. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 156...WW 157...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Guyer

WW 0158 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 158

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ALN
TO 35 SSW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 25 SSW DNV TO 25 NNW DNV.

..HART..04/27/26

ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC005-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-079-101-117-121-135-
159-173-183-189-271840-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOND                 CLARK               CLAY                
CLINTON              COLES               CRAWFORD            
CUMBERLAND           EDGAR               EFFINGHAM           
FAYETTE              JASPER              LAWRENCE            
MACOUPIN             MARION              MONTGOMERY          
RICHLAND             SHELBY              VERMILION           
WASHINGTON           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Southeastern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley...
Within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the south-central Rockies toward the
mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
move from TX toward the TN Valley and Southeast, to the south of the
primary shortwave trough. These features will impinge upon a
reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley, resulting in a potentially active severe
weather episode Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. 

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region Tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and
locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse
rate/buoyancy environment across the southern Plains into the
ArkLaTex. Strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by Tuesday
afternoon, to the east of a dryline across TX, and along and to the
warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast OK
toward the mid MS Valley. Evolution of storm development remains
uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front
and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon. 

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg
as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX
into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. An increase in storm coverage should lead to development
of storm clusters and potentially an MCS that would spread eastward
into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible.
Storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter
weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could
persist through much of the night with any organized storm
structures.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this
evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes
(EF3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large
to very large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley...
Forecast scenario largely unchanged in that a very active
severe-weather/tornado day is expected regionally, especially into
late afternoon and this evening. Initially, a relatively long-lived
linear cluster of convection persists at late morning across
east-central/south-central Illinois, with additional initially
elevated storms on its eastern/southern periphery, moving from
eastern Illinois into Indiana, with severe hail and damaging winds
persisting as early day hazards.

Over time, air mass will continue to moisten and rapidly destabilize
along/south of the MCS-associated outflow from central Missouri into
south-central Illinois. A mid/upper-level trough will eject
northeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and
middle Mississippi Valley through the period. Low-level mass
response will encourage the primary surface low to consolidate
across Minnesota/Wisconsin by this evening, with a warm front
effectively delineated by the morning convection.

Strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with a 50-70
kt mid-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector by peak
heating, and a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will both
provide ample low-level and deep-layer shear to support supercells.
Initially discrete surface-based development appears likely to occur
into mid-afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South ahead
of the surface cold front, and perhaps along weak low-level
confluence zones in the open warm sector including generally near
the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers southward into the
Mid-South.

These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for
tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to
intense tornadoes (EF2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of
Missouri into Illinois along/near the effective front. This strong
tornado potential will also likely extend farther south within the
warm sector into the Mid-South.

By early evening, convection will probably tend to consolidate into
clusters of supercells and then more linear segments with some
increase in damaging wind potential aside from large hail and a
continued multi-mode tornado risk tonight.

...ArkLaTex into Texas...
While storm coverage may trend lesser with southwest extent, the
potential for at least isolated intense storms will exist across the
region. Supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and
occasional damaging winds are expected. Increasing low-level
warm/moist advection tonight could foster additional robust
thunderstorms along the retreating dryline and eventually the
southward-moving cold front.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/27/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

Some slight expansion of Critical Highlights were made across
central and southeastern NM into far west TX, primarily for wind
prone areas in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains and Guadalupe
Mountains in southeastern NM and far west TX. A robust 55-65 knot
mid-level jet remains over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while
current surface analysis shows a trough and associated cold front
extending southwestward from a surface low approaching the Upper
Midwest. Dry, downslope-enhanced westerly flow corridors of 15-20
mph south of the cold front will support an enhanced fire weather
threat across portions eastern NM and western TX through the
afternoon. The persistent downslope regime inhibited overnight RH
recoveries, with minimum RH reductions of around 10% likely across
southeastern NM into far west and northwestern TX by afternoon peak
heating. These fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels
will promote a higher potential for wildfire spread.

..Williams.. 04/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface
observations show that a very dry air mass resides over the
Southwest and southern High Plains with dewpoints in the 15-25 F
range for most locations. This air mass resulted in RH minimums
generally near 10% yesterday, and with no moisture recovery expected
over the next 24-48 hours, similar RH values are anticipated this
afternoon. 

Gradient winds will generally increase to 15-20 mph across the
region through late morning and early afternoon before gradually
abating by early evening as a surface cyclone drifts towards the MS
Valley/Midwest region. Critical conditions appear most likely
roughly along the I-40 corridor and downwind of the Sacramento
Mountains. Here, residual belts of 20-30 mph low-level flow within
the boundary layer will help support sustained winds closer to 20
mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Given dry conditions over preceding
days and recent new fire activity, fuels will support some degree of
fire spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0157 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 157

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E UIN TO
30 SSE UIN TO 45 S UIN TO COU TO 5 SSE VIH TO 20 S FAM TO 35 ESE
POF.

..HART..04/27/26

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 157 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC003-013-047-055-059-061-065-069-077-081-083-087-119-127-133-
145-149-151-153-157-163-165-181-185-191-193-199-271540-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER            CALHOUN             EDWARDS             
FRANKLIN             GALLATIN            GREENE              
HAMILTON             HARDIN              JACKSON             
JEFFERSON            JERSEY              JOHNSON             
MADISON              MASSAC              MONROE              
PERRY                PIKE                POPE                
PULASKI              RANDOLPH            ST. CLAIR           
SALINE               UNION               WABASH              
WAYNE                WHITE               WILLIAMSON          


KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-271540-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CALLOWAY            CARLISLE            
FULTON               GRAVES              HICKMAN

WW 0156 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 156

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CNU TO
20 ESE SZL TO 10 WNW COU.

..HART..04/27/26

ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MOC013-015-039-083-141-185-217-271540-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BATES                BENTON              CEDAR               
HENRY                MORGAN              ST. CLAIR           
VERNON               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.