
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Active and progressive mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave troughing will progress through the Rockies and Plains this weekend with more troughing expected later next week. Fire weather concerns should generally increase for portions of the Southern Plains early next week as stronger southwest flow affects the region. ...Northern Rockies D3-D4... Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible ahead of a northern stream shortwave trough across parts of the northern Rockies D3/Sunday and D4/Monday. With westerly flow expected to increase behind a departing lee low, downslope winds of 15-30 mph are possible. Uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be given the arrival of western troughing and snow. However, some localized fire-weather concerns are possible given ongoing drought and increase in low-level winds, especially D4/Monday over parts of WY and CO. ...Southwest/Southern Plains D4-D7... Increasing mid-level flow over the central Rockies is expected much of next week as the large-scale pattern moves toward more active southern stream flow. A shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies D4/Monday increasing winds across portions of eastern NM and west TX. Episodic troughing and stronger flow aloft will continue through much of the week and into next weekend with an increase in the fire-weather risk given dry fuels and warm temperatures. While some fire-weather risk appears possible, increasing ensemble member spread and uncertainty regarding the northern extent of returning Gulf moisture and precipitation into the southern Plains precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Southern CA... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA. ..Hart.. 02/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today, ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low- to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA. Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...High Plains... Downslope winds and unusually dry conditions are expected Saturday afternoon over parts of CO, WY western NE and northwest KS. RH below 20% and winds gusting to 20-30 mph are likely behind a lee trough amid unseasonably dry fuels. This will support Elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. Similar downslope enhanced winds and drying are expected farther south into parts of West TX and eastern NM. While winds will be somewhat weaker and more southerly, a few gusts to 20-25 mph and RH below 20% will still favor Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...FL... Mid-level subsidence on the back side of the departing eastern US trough will allow very dry mid-level air to move into parts of FL. While cooler surface temperatures are expected behind a departing surface cold front, mixing may allow RH values to fall below 20% during the day. Occasional gusts to 10-15 mph could support brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon across the Fl Peninsula. However, cooler surface temperatures and minimal overlap with dry fuels should preclude broader fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly upper ridging will prevail over the central U.S. tomorrow (Saturday). However, an embedded mid-level impulse will traverse the ridge over the central Rockies and overspread the central Plains by afternoon. Surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow over portions of the Colorado/Wyoming border into western Nebraska, and northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle by afternoon peak heating. Over both of these areas, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds should overlap with 25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the lack of recent precipitation over these areas, fuels should be dry enough to support some wildfire-spread potential, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A large ridge across the western CONUS will suppress through the period on Sunday as a jet streak extends from the Pacific into the northern Rockies. Cooling air aloft across the Pacific Northwest may lead to sufficiently deep instability for some lightning. At this time, expect most of the lightning to remain offshore. Therefore, no thunder area has been added to the coastal areas at this time. Beneath the larger ridge, an upper low will move slowly east across northern Mexico. Surface heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will result in modest instability across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Forcing will remain relatively weak, but the uncapped environment, combined with some terrain influences may lead to isolated thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2026Read more