SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 14 10:58:01 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 at 05:57:06 AM CDT
No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 14 10:58:01 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Apr 14 10:58:01 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 at 05:57:05 AM CDT
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 14 10:58:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Apr 14, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 at 03:49:56 AM CDT
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR  DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will
eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly
mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt
850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours.
A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low
deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a
second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast
into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low
to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by
midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN
into central KS at midday. 

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized
by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm
into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will
overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong
destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind
profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of
all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are
expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a
squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an
accompanying increase in damaging wind potential. 

...Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity...

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough
continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an
eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least
weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor
a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore
the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential
appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal
precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday.
Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the
wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on
Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts
another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return
flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However,
severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

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SPC Apr 14, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 at 02:23:30 AM CDT
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the
Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this
feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing
convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger
destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of
clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts
where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates. 

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place
across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the
day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is
then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm
development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of
large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be
monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is
possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north
TX into southern OK.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 at 01:32:39 AM CDT
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the
Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds
across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the
day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the
afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest
lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could
be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most
other areas reaching only 15-20%.

...Piedmont...
Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to
near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the
lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is
more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness
will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon.

...Southeast Wyoming...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon.
While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns,
there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which
lowers confidence in the overall risk.

..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 at 01:32:36 AM CDT
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the
surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow
will continue into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southeast Colorado into central Plains...
A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during
the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of
20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the
terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with
greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally
strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent
precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk.

...Southwest into southern High Plains...
Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern
Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH
higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain
appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire
weather threat during the afternoon.

...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic...
Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH
will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s
F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire
weather threat.

..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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