MD 0109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL


Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas affected...central/southern parts of MS/AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211009Z - 211245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop this morning from
initially elevated cells over parts of central Mississippi, as they
spread east-southeast along a quasi-stationary front.

DISCUSSION...As-advertised by the 00Z ECMWF/HREF and 06Z REFS
guidance, convective development has been increasing along the MS
portion of a quasi-stationary front in the Deep South. A pronounced
low-level thermodynamic gradient across the boundary, along with
moderate southwesterlies, has aided in isentropic ascent to the cool
side of the front. Recent HRRR guidance has been quite insistent on
a sustained rotating storm or two along the front, as cells shift
into AL through mid-morning. Deep-layer shear is certainly favorable
for mid-level rotation. However, weak to modest mid-level lapse
rates should curtail hail growth to an extent. But with the presence
of rich low-level moisture south of the front, there is concern that
a near-boundary supercell could eventually attain surface-based
character beyond a severe hail threat. However, low-level winds are
expected to become slightly more veered from the west-southwest
towards and after daybreak, which may help modulate the overall
threat.

..Grams/Guyer.. 02/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32758922 32918789 33078681 33148532 32378517 32088556
            31958612 31758866 31679050 32069050 32758922 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain
across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface
anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states
suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the
anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly
winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.

Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains
into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface
cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of
the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any,
severe potential as the front moves through.

The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern
Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest
moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into
Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble
guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through
the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once
again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and
poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.

... Discussion ...

As the East Coast cyclone departs on Monday, a cool, dry airmass
will settle over much of the country, suppressing thunderstorm
activity.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.

..Halbert.. 02/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. 

...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
additional highlights at this time.

...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.

..Halbert.. 02/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...