
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the Gulf Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the southern Plains late. During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA. Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range. While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak. Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north of the boundary. To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be non-severe. ..Jewell.. 02/25/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop. Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the 21-01 UTC period. Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated convection. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 02/25/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. Ample high cloud cover is visible on satellite imagery across eastern NM and west TX, likely to persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph have already been observed this morning in southeastern NM with RH values hovering at and below 20%. Increasing sustained downslope winds of 20-30 mph and RH below 20% atop a dry fuelscape will support Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for this area. In the CO Front Range, cross-terrain surface pressure gradients beneath an incoming 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will support gusty downslope winds through the Central High Plains. In central-southeastern CO, RH of 20-25% will be slightly displaced from the strongest sustained surface winds to the north, though local terrain-driven wind tunneling may generate isolated areas of higher winds, so locally critical fire weather conditions may be possible given receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/southern High Plains... Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the central and southern Rockies today with lee troughing in place across much of the central and southern High Plains. The cross terrain surface pressure gradient will support dry, downslope winds of 20-30 mph across portions of east-central and southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A plume of mid-level moisture will nose into the area through the day, fostering some high-level cloud cover and a modest increase in surface dewpoints. Given this, guidance is not overly confident in RH dropping below 15% for more than a brief period. However, the increased winds overlapping a dry fuelscape will still support a period of Critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. RH values of around 20% with surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains, but locally higher winds are possible within terrain-favored locations. ...Edwards Plateau into South-Central Texas... A modest surface low will gradually progress southeastward across portions of central Texas today. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible to the south and west of this feature. Coupled with expected RH values of 15-20%, this will support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. ...Northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas... Strong northwesterly flow across the central Rockies will align with a favorable cross-terrain surface pressure gradient to support a strong downslope wind event across portions of the central High Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected along with the potential for gusts up to 45-55 mph. While RH values are forecast to remain marginal (20-25%), the strong downslope winds will overlap with receptive fuels to support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible farther north into portions of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle; however, such conditions are expected to be brief given anticipated RH increases behind an advancing surface cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay. An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely. Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated convection. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/25/2026Read more