SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 02:15:18 PM CDT
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN
COLORADO...

A Critical area has been introduced over portions of southeast
Wyoming, extreme western Nebraska, and extreme northern Colorado. In
this area, forecast guidance indicates sustained west-northwest
winds of 20-25 mph combined with RHs of 10-18% by mid-afternoon. The
strongest winds will be near and east of the leeward slopes of the
Laramie Mountains. In this area, the duration of critical wind/RH
will likely approach 5 or more hours during peak heating.

The Elevated area was expanded to the east and south across the
northern and central Colorado plains and farther into the
southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. The limiting
factors for expansion farther west and north are cloud cover and
existing marginal fuel receptiveness. However, given the persistent
pattern and resultant anomalous temperatures expected over much of
the region, this area will be watched closely for potential
expansion as fuels continue to dry.

..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the
central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge
will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours,
which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central
CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern
Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT
to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is
fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across
central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption
of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the
20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed
solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which
would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly
across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this
potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around
40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless,
antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on
Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in
areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire
weather threat Wednesday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 17 19:16:01 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 02:15:06 PM CDT
No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 17 19:16:01 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Mar 17 19:16:01 UTC 2026
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 02:15:05 PM CDT
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 17 19:16:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Mar 17, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 01:52:29 PM CDT
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

The overall pattern will not change much from Wednesday into
Thursday. A large upper cyclone and attendant ridge will encompass
the western U.S., while an upper trough persists near the Eastern
Seaboard. Surface high pressure across the East and Southeast and a
prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will result in a
dearth of boundary layer moisture, maintaining a dry/stable airmass
across most of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 03/17/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 11:51:27 AM CDT
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...

The Critical area over the southern Plains was expanded to include a
slightly larger portion of central Texas and into nearby areas of
southwestern Oklahoma. Forecast guidance is indicating that this
region will experience at least a few hours of slightly stronger
westerly winds, sustained at 15-25 mph with minimum RHs near 10-20%.
Surface observations over this area are already indicating a
tightening pressure gradient with sustained southwest winds up to
15-20 mph and RHs dropping into the mid-teens. Over central Wyoming,
the latest forecast guidance shows that much of central portions of
the state are not expected to reach elevated criteria with RH
struggling to fall below 30%. Thus, portions of the Elevated area
were trimmed toward the south commensurate with the spatial extent
of the lowest RHs in this area. All other areas remain on track.

..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are
prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal
passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains
are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high
pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through
the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting
pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope
flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to
critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire
activity. 

...Southern Plains...
Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds
through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the
pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough
along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most
pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into
southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus
suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph;
however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry
return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than
actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds
under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which
will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather
conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across
this region.

...Central to southern High Plains...
Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will
support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from
central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance
show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with
areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these
regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are
possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the
NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent
days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this
corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble
agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will
be monitored for the need for Critical highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Mar 17, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 11:38:50 AM CDT
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern characterized by a trough in the East and
a ridge/upper high in the West will persist on Wednesday. Surface
high pressure across the East/Southeast will foster offshore flow
and a dry and stable airmass will prevail across most of the CONUS.
Modest boundary layer moisture will exist across far South FL and
the Keys, with a stalled front offshore across the FL Straits. A few
thunderstorms are possible near this boundary, but are expected to
mainly remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/17/2026

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SPC Mar 17, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Tue, 17 Mar 2026 at 11:11:00 AM CDT
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper
trough over the East with a ridge over the West.  Drier and stable
conditions have encompassed much of the CONUS in wake of a cold
front that continues to push eastward into the western Atlantic.

..Smith/Lyons.. 03/17/2026

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