SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Southwest...
A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one
emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and
Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly
accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas.  As
this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of
sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to
advect northward across portions of southern California through the
Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley.  Coincident with steepening
lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM
forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional
instability developing across the region overnight.  The evolution
of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at
least 12Z Friday..

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
A gradual breakdown of the highly amplified ridge across the western
U.S. is expected through the weekend, with troughing becoming more
established across the West by the middle of next week. An embedded
mid-level short wave within the devolving ridge along with deepening
lee surface troughing across the central/northern Plains will
present an increased fire weather threat across portions of the
central and southern Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Fire weather concerns
could persist for portions of the Southern Plains early next week as
surface troughing and subsequent stronger southwest flow affects the
region. 

...Day 3/Saturday...
Dry and breezy conditions within a favorable downslope regime are
likely across portions of the central High Plains Day 3 Saturday,
where westerly winds align with low RH and persistently dry fuels.
Farther south, dry southwest flow south of a deepening lee surface
trough across the central Plains should support a fire weather
threat to portions of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. 40%
critical probabilities were maintained for these areas for Saturday.
An exiting mid-level trough and dry, post-frontal flow is expected
across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas region Saturday. However, recent
precipitation and colder temperatures should mitigate a more
significant fire weather threat.

...Day 5/Monday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather concerns could linger across the southern central High
Plains into early next week as surface lee troughing expands across
the central Plains in the shadow of increasing mid-level flow over
the central Rockies. However, increasing ensemble member spread and
uncertainty regarding the northern extent of return Gulf moisture
into the southern Plains precludes introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 02/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...