SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
The weather pattern will not change much from Wednesday into
Thursday, with prominent upper high over the Southwest, northwest
flow across the central states, and large-scale troughing just off
the East Coast. High pressure from the East into the Gulf of America
will preclude any moisture return, with a decided lack of
instability over land.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2026

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will exist over the eastern states, with an
upper high prominently situated over the Southwest. High pressure
will cover most of the CONUS, with dry offshore flow from the East
Coast into the Gulf of America. As such, the pattern will offer
little potential for destabilization or thunderstorms. However,
relative moisture from the Bahamas into the FL Straits may support a
few weak oceanic thunderstorms, most likely just off the FL
Peninsula.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that blocking within the large-scale pattern will
remain prominent through this period.  This includes one notable
mid-level high, which may build further while slowly beginning to
shift inland of the southern California coast, into the Southwest. 
As this occurs, large-scale ridging likely will be maintained across
the offshore mid-latitude Pacific through the Rockies, with at least
some expansion eastward across the Great Plains.

It appears that another mid-level high may attempt to form
downstream, within initially amplified large-scale ridging across
the western mid-latitude Atlantic, as a couple of significant short
wave perturbations emerge from lingering larger-scale troughing
initially across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard. 
Both of the waves are forecast to rapidly accelerate within strong
southwesterly flow into the northern mid-latitude Atlantic.  

As this occurs, a broad, deep and occluding surface cyclone is
forecast to migrate northeast of the eastern Canadian provinces,
with the trailing cold front advancing away from much of the
Atlantic Seaboard, while slowing/stalling across the Bahamas into
Caribbean. The center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from
near the northwestern Gulf coast into the Mid Atlantic vicinity
today through tonight, but models indicate that surface ridging will
be maintained to the southwest, across much of the Great Basin.  

In association with this regime, dry and/or stable conditions are
likely to prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for
thunderstorm activity today through tonight.

..Kerr.. 03/17/2026

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid
Atlantic States this afternoon...

* LOCATIONS...
  Eastern Virginia
  Eastern North Carolina
  Maryland
  A small part of northeast South Carolina
  District of Columbia

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few tornadoes, a couple strong

* SUMMARY...
  Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield
  potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few
  strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic
  States.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Thompson.. 03/16/2026

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Showers overspreading the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity may
continue to be accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts and
perhaps the risk for a tornado or two through mid to late evening.

...01Z Update...
The sharp surface frontal zone has been steadily progressing east of
the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge Mountains the past few hours,
coincident with an area of low pressure within deep surface
troughing migrating across northern Virginia into south central
Pennsylvania.  Along the front near and just south of the wave, a
narrow line of convection continues to develop, supported by lift of
moist boundary-layer layer air characterized by at least weak CAPE.

Due to relatively warm mid/upper levels with weak lapse rates,
convection is likely to remain low-topped with little, if any,
lightning.  However, downdrafts have been sufficient to support the
downward transfer of momentum, associated with 50-60 kt southerly
mean flow in the lowest 3 km above ground level.  Profiles sampled
in 17/00Z sounding from Dulles (IAD) appear supportive of at least
some risk for a tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 03/17/2026