
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast. Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and another surface low off the California coast. As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected with this activity. Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Southern High Plains... Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Southern High Plains this afternoon. Current guidance is still on track for strong west-southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph in some areas and RH decreasing to 10-15 percent atop a dry fuelscape. An expansion of the Elevated area was added along the southern foothills of Colorado to include a corridor of strong winds and low RH overlapping potentially receptive fuels. ...Central High Plains... Increased mid-level cloud cover and passage of a cold front across eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska this afternoon may inhibit deeper mixing and limit the temporal extent of more critical fire weather conditions. However, a few hours of dry and breezy conditions atop dry fuels should still support fire weather concerns today. The Elevated and Critical areas are unchanged, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight. ...MT/ID/WY... A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%. ..Hart/Thornton.. 02/09/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight. ...Discussion... Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S. through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to nil across the continental United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026Read more