
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Progressive zonal flow continues across the central US this weekend transitioning into a higher amplitude pattern early next week characterized by deep troughing over the East and a strong ridge over the West. On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig southward into the central and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough will track through the Great Lakes region by the end of Day 4/Monday before lifting northeast on Day 5/Tuesday. Simultaneously, a robust upper-level ridge will amplify over the western CONUS. By mid-to-late week, the upper high is forecast over southern Arizona, with much above normal geopotential heights over much of the western CONUS. On Day 3/Sunday, strong northwest flow on the backside of the upper-level trough will maintain a corridor of strong winds and persistent dry air across almost all of New Mexico and much of west Texas. Both of the 40% and 70% probability areas were expanded to account for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the tightening surface pressure gradient associated with the advancing cold front. Elevated to critical conditions will be ongoing in the morning across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally, portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and northeast New Mexico may see two periods of elevated/critical conditions interrupted by the frontal passage. The wind shift from westerly to northerly is of concern, especially with any ongoing wildfires. Meanwhile, the central and northern Plains will see a transition to much more stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler temperatures, allowing for a brief few days of relief from recent critical conditions. On Day 4/Monday, breezy and dry conditions are expected to persist across eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass remains dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface winds are likely to remain below elevated thresholds. The 40% area was expanded slightly over south Texas where northerly winds will precede and overlap with dry air behind the cold front. On Day 5/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with north to northwest upper-level flow over much of the central US. With resultant increased boundary-layer mixing, another day of widespread critical conditions will be possible over portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal environment over Georgia, Florida, and portions of the Carolinas, where fuels are driest, will provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions. This area will continue to be watched closely over the coming days. Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period. Regardless of winds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH would suggest extended burn periods in areas with receptive fuels. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS ...DISCUSSION... ...Updated discussion for D4... The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. ...Previous discussion below... Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast. Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z. There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA. Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk. Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes are necessary to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/ ...Western/Central Pennsylvania... An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating. One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with this update. ...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should remain low.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely on late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A 100+ knot mid-level jet will lead to rapid amplification as it rounds the base of the mid-level trough across the Central Plains on Sunday. As the associated surface cyclone moves northeastward through the day, strong low-level moisture transport will occur across the warm sector. This will result in weak to potentially moderate instability ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. This cold front will accelerate east-southeastward from the Midwest to the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and from Ohio to western Georgia/eastern Alabama by Monday morning. ....Ohio Valley... Despite dewpoints only increasing to the mid to upper 50s, a very favorable kinematic environment will be in place with a 70 knot low-level jet and nearly 125 knot mid-level jet by Monday morning. Given this wind field, any instability, combined with the strong frontal forcing, will be sufficient for a powerful QLCS during the evening and overnight hours. This squall line will likely have widespread 60+ mph wind gusts with some stronger 75+ mph wind gusts possible. In addition, very long hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH will support a threat for line-embedded tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Additionally, the strong shear may also allow for some embedded supercells, also depicted by the 12Z RRFS, which also may lead to a locally greater tornado threat. Pre-frontal development cannot be ruled out, especially from northeast Arkansas to southern Illinois at the nose of the 500mb jet and the northern extent of the richer low-level moisture. This scenario is more uncertain, but could pose a greater tornado threat if it were to materialize. ...Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... The squall line will form during the afternoon, perhaps with some initial supercell/hail threat across Arkansas and northeast Texas and then move northeastward through the overnight period. The strongest low-mid level wind field will remain north of this region, however, greater instability will compensate and should maintain the damaging squall line through the overnight hours. The greatest STP values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM) between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early morning period. ...FL/AL Coast... Toward the end of the period, richer low-level moisture will begin to move inland across the FL Panhandle into southern Alabama. Within this zone, discrete convection may develop after 08Z. If this were to occur, strong shear would support supercells capable of tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST TEXAS... The Critical area over New Mexico was significantly expanded to include much of the eastern Colorado plains, the southwestern half of Nebraska, and the northwest third of Kansas. Similarly, the Elevated area was expanded to include the much of the western halves of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, and far southeastern Wyoming, portions of south-central Colorado, and nearly all of New Mexico. The expansion of the risk areas are notable given the ongoing very large fires in central/western Nebraska. The latest forecast guidance shows critically windy and dry surface conditions developing over much of the Front Range and pushing much farther east across much of the central High Plains. Sustained westerly winds of 20-30 with widespread RHs of 10-15% can be anticipated across much of this area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Colorado Rockies during the afternoon and early evening hours. Elevated to critical conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours on portions of the central and southern High Plains. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southward across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D2/Saturday. As westerly flow develops across the Rockies, strong lee cyclone development is likely on D2/Saturday across the Nebraska Panhandle. As a result, westerly surface gradients will strengthen across the central/southern High Plains. Very strong/dry downslope flow is expected to develop, particularly across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. In this region, sustained westerly surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. This in combination with dry fuels will support maintaining Critical fire areas for Saturday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to extend into eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming/western Nebraska. The immediate area in the lee of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado may see locally Critical conditions. This area may need to be included in further outlooks if trends increase or confidence in mountain wave activity increases. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on portions of the southern and central High Plains. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of western New Mexico and Arizona. For now, fuels in this region are not supportive but this event will work to precondition fuels amid temperatures well above normal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A generally zonal pattern across the CONUS will become more amplified on Saturday with a trough developing across the Plains by the end of the period. A lack of moisture will limit severe weather concerns Saturday and Saturday night. Where greater moisture is present across Florida, isolated storms are expected on Saturday amid moderate instability and weak height falls. Shear will be on the weaker side (~25 knots) and mid-level lapse rates will remain weak. Therefore, an isolated stronger storm is possible, but more organized severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible north of the warm front from northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin early Sunday morning given the strong isentropic ascent, but forecast soundings show relatively meager moisture/instability at this time, which may preclude more widespread thunderstorm development. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2026Read more