SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not currently in the forecast.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and impinge on the
Midwest on Saturday, prompting a surface low over the central High
Plains to translate southeastward toward the Gulf while weakening.
The approach of the weakening low will spur some low-level warm-air
advection and return flow along the Gulf shoreline. Buoyancy driven
by this moisture however, is forecast to be scant, so mainly
isolated thunderstorms are forecast, with severe thunderstorms
currently not a concern.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 4 08:15:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 4 08:15:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will overspread much of the CONUS tomorrow
(Friday), prompting a surface trough to impinge on the Great Lakes
region while another surface low quickly develops along the northern
High Plains. Regardless of the synoptic weather pattern in place, a
relatively cool/dry, statically stable airmass will encompass much
of the Interior West, to the Plains states, eastward to the Atlantic
Seaboard. Therefore, thunderstorm development will be limited across
much of the CONUS. The one exception will be along the Gulf Coast.
Here, low-level moisture advection, prompted by an approaching upper
trough, will supply enough deep-layer ascent amid scant buoyancy
(e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) for a few thunderstorms through
Friday.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Across the U.S. today, mid-level flow will remain northwesterly in
the western states as a trough moves through the Great Plains.
West-southwesterly flow aloft will be in place across the Southeast.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be located over the western and
central Gulf. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
along the northern edge of the moist airmass along parts of the
western and central Gulf Coast, and further north into the lower
Sabine and lower Mississippi River Valleys. Low-level moisture and
instability is expected to be insufficient for severe storms.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not
forecast today or tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/04/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Downslope flow off the southern Rockies and weak lee cyclogenesis
over the central High Plains will favor 15-20 mph sustained westerly
surface winds and 15-20 percent RH from east-central NM into the TX
South Plains during the afternoon. However, ongoing precipitation
atop marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns.

..Weinman.. 12/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Expansive surface high pressure characterized by cold surface
temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
Locally dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across parts of
southern CA, though marginal fuels and weaker surface winds compared
to previous days should mitigate the overall risk.

..Weinman.. 12/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...