SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 10 21:57:01 UTC 2025
Published: Wed, 10 Dec 2025 at 03:56:03 PM CST
No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 10 21:57:01 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Dec 10 21:57:01 UTC 2025
Published: Wed, 10 Dec 2025 at 03:56:02 PM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 10 21:57:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Wed, 10 Dec 2025 at 03:53:16 PM CST
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

Upper-level ridging will continue and potentially amplify over the
West through early next week, but weak upper lows/troughs are likely
to traverse through the ridging over the southern half of the West
this weekend into early next week. Upper-level troughing is likely
to continue over the Great Lakes and Northeast into mid-next week,
but a stronger upper low is forecast to move into these areas early
to mid-next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central
Plains, and much of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall
through early next week. 

Dry/breezy conditions are likely on portions of the southern/central
High Plains, most likely from southeast Colorado into eastern New
Mexico and far west Texas Day 4/Saturday ahead/along an approaching
cold front. Another round of dry/breezy conditions are likely early
to mid-next week, but the timing/magnitude of potential
elevated/critical winds/RH remains uncertain. Fuels continue to cure
due to recent dry weather, with increasing fire activity noted
during dry/breezy periods in portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Rain
chances increase along the Rio Grande and into central/east/north
Texas this weekend and early to mid-next week, but how much rain and
how far north/west it extends remains uncertain. However, heavy rain
is unlikely in west/central/north Texas.

Dry cold frontal passages late this week and early next week will
continue to dry fuels across the Southeast. However, recent rainfall
and the lack of overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH preclude
introducing probabilities.

..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Wed, 10 Dec 2025 at 01:18:27 PM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely across portions of
southeast Wyoming and eastern Colorado where west-northwest
sustained winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph and minimum RH of
15-30% are forecast. Elevated winds/RH are also likely from
northwest Texas into southern/central Oklahoma tomorrow amid dry
return flow, with southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum
RH of 18-30%. However, given the marginal fuel conditions and
perhaps more local coverage of elevated winds/RH, Elevated areas
were not added.

..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The
pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west
and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies
and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap
of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive
to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather
concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Dec 10, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Wed, 10 Dec 2025 at 01:14:20 PM CST
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

No changes.

..Hart.. 12/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb
winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley
today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low
associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its
current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario
along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into
the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front
extending southeastward from this low will push quickly
eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the
eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast. 

Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable
conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over
central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level
temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the
thunderstorm potential.

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SPC Dec 10, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Wed, 10 Dec 2025 at 12:31:30 PM CST
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east
through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists
across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio
Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late
Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will
develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest
boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any
appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf.
A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period
offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately
inland should remain limited.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2025

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