MD 0135 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12... FOR NORTH TX INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR


Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...North TX into eastern OK and western AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12...

Valid 050043Z - 050245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado will continue through mid evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing from north TX into eastern
OK early this evening, with occasional storm organization and
midlevel rotation noted with cells near the DFW Metroplex, and also
in the vicinity of a cold front between McAlester, OK and Fort
Smith, AR. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
(as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding) will continue to support
occasional supercells across the region this evening, with an
increasing coverage of storms expected in response to an approaching
midlevel shortwave trough and modest strengthening of the low-level
jet. 

Cell interactions may tend to limit the longevity of any particular
cell, though slow storm motions and a tendency for backbuilding near
a composite outflow across north TX may continue to support a nearly
stationary storm cluster near the eastern DFW Metroplex. Farther
north, occasional splitting supercells may continue as convection
spreads from southeast OK into western AR. 

Some hail and localized damaging-wind threat will continue to
accompany any sustained supercells this evening. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out, especially if any surface-based supercells can
persist later into the evening, when a modest strengthening of
low-level shear/SRH is expected. However, there may continue to be a
tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow or the slow-moving
cold front.

..Dean.. 03/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32499605 32199670 31579792 31819877 34209661 35609542
            36119472 36299433 36109357 34859396 33789470 32909565
            32499605 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0134 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11... FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY


Mesoscale Discussion 0134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks into the lower Ohio River
Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

Valid 042330Z - 050130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat for all hazards continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #11 until 0300 UTC, with the primary threat for
large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg coupled with effective bulk
shear of 30-40 kts and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of
around 7 C/km will continue to favor a threat for severe hail across
WW0011, primarily across portions of southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas where an ongoing, isolated supercell may persist for at
least another 1-2 hours. Increasing low-level flow is also expected
to yield a modest increase to low-level hodograph curvature over the
next few hours. With additional development across the southwestern
portions of the Watch area possible, this will support at least some
potential for an isolated tornado in addition to the continuing
hail/wind threats, particularly where developing storms are able to
maintain a more discrete storm mode.

Farther northeast, a cluster of ongoing thunderstorms continues
across portions of southern Illinois/Indiana along and north of the
surface boundary. While instability and mid-level lapse rates are
more limited (approximately 500 J/kg MUCAPE and 6 C/km,
respectively, per latest mesoanalysis), modest warm air advection
within the 925-850 mb layer atop the frontal boundary coupled with
effective bulk shear around 30 knots will continue to support the
risk for isolated severe hail over the next couple of hours. A
downstream watch is not anticipated at this time.

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36149200 36409249 36859278 37379209 38668902 39068772
            39128726 39078658 38828613 38458614 38028653 37518728
            36898830 36009008 36149200 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 11 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO 042035Z - 050300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 11
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southern Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM
  until 900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to further develop and intensify
regionally as additional destabilization occurs. This will include
clusters and a few supercells with hail and wind as the primary
hazards, although some tornado potential will exist.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Harrison AR to 10 miles east northeast of Evansville
IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Guyer

WW 0011 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 11

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE POF
TO 25 SSW POF TO 30 NNW ARG TO 30 SE UNO TO 30 NNW BVX TO 30 W
BVX TO 20 E RUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134

..CHALMERS..03/05/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC005-009-049-065-071-089-101-115-129-137-141-050140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAXTER               BOONE               FULTON              
IZARD                JOHNSON             MARION              
NEWTON               POPE                SEARCY              
STONE                VAN BUREN           


ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-050140-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER            EDWARDS             FRANKLIN            
GALLATIN             HAMILTON            HARDIN              
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JOHNSON             
MASSAC               PERRY               POPE                
PULASKI              SALINE              UNION

WW 12 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 042240Z - 050500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 12
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western Arkansas
  Southeast Oklahoma
  North Central Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM
  until 1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma.  These storms will
spread northeastward across the watch area during the evening, with
a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of
Fort Worth TX to 45 miles east southeast of Fayetteville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 11...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.

...Hart

WW 0012 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 12

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135

..DEAN..03/05/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 12 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-015-033-047-061-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-149-050140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CARROLL             CRAWFORD            
FRANKLIN             HOWARD              LOGAN               
MADISON              POLK                SCOTT               
SEBASTIAN            SEVIER              WASHINGTON          
YELL                 


OKC001-005-013-023-029-061-069-077-079-089-095-121-127-135-
050140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ATOKA               BRYAN               
CHOCTAW              COAL                HASKELL             
JOHNSTON             LATIMER             LE FLORE            
MCCURTAIN            MARSHALL            PITTSBURG           
PUSHMATAHA           SEQUOYAH

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

Upper-level flow will split by Day 3/Friday, leading to a cutoff
upper-level low over western Arizona and a strong jet progressing
northeastward through the central Plains. The Arizona low is
forecast to retrograde toward Baja California through Day
4/Saturday. It's not until Day 7/Tuesday that this cutoff low begins
to move eastward through northern Mexico. However, differences in
the timing and evolution of this upper low movement are not yet well
resolved by the available forecast guidance.

On Day 3/Friday, the aforementioned strong flow aloft will
contribute to 20-35 mph west to southwest sustained winds combined
with 10-20% RH from southeastern New Mexico and west Texas through
southwest Kansas. Additionally, a corridor of higher probabilities
for critical fire weather conditions extends from extreme eastern
New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where sustained
winds could potentially exceed 40 mph during the afternoon hours.

On Day 4/Saturday, due to the upper low tracking south of southern
California, gusty offshore, northeasterly flow will develop across
portions of southern California. However, recent rainfall over the
last few weeks and higher live fuel moistures preclude an
introduction of probabilities. 

Early next week, the upper level pattern remains uncertain due to
differences in the forecast timing and track of the upper level low
over the southwest US and northern Mexico. However, introduction of
probabilities may be necessary across portions of the southern High
Plains and Southwest.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...

The latest forecast guidance has slightly slowed the area of maximum
winds associated with the upper level trough transiting the
central/southern Rockies on Day 2/Thursday. Additionally, in part
due to the timing and curvature of the jet maximum, there is some
uncertainty as to how far east the dryline will progress later in
the day. Meanwhile, the aforementioned elevated to critical
conditions will be ongoing for several hours across a good portion
of central to northeastern New Mexico from noon to sunset local
time. A subtle westward movement was necessitated over the southern
extent of Critical area due to this trend in the latest guidance.
Additionally, the Elevated was expanded over portions of the Trans
Pecos to account for forecast guidance trending toward slightly
lower relative humidity in that area. With additional information on
fuels conditions, also added in portions of eastern central Colorado
and extreme southeastern Arizona.

Consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat
primarily in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Limiting factors precluding any areas include the uncertainty of the
dryline placement and progression, the expected cloud cover over the
region, and the propensity for increasing coverage of strong storms.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will track southeastward over the
Intermountain West and Four Corners D2/Thursday, with an associated
lee surface cyclone developing on the central High Plains through
the day. The surface cyclone will shift southeastward through the
period, with a sharpening, trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong sustained southwesterly surface
winds and very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the
southern/central High Plains.

...Portions of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado...
Dry, southwesterly downslope flow will increase on D2/Thursday
behind a sharpening dryline across the central/southern High Plains.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado where the best overlap of stronger
sustained surface winds (20-25 mph), low relative humidities
(5-15%), and receptive fuels is expected. Stronger 700 mb winds
coupled with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will also support
sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph along this corridor. Elsewhere
across the central/southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% will support
elevated fire weather concerns across much of New Mexico, southeast
Colorado, far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern
Kansas. The eastern extent of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions will depend on the dryline location, while the western
extent is limited by less receptive fuels.

The dryline will be a focus for D2/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Given lingering
uncertainty regarding dryline placement/movement and the potential
for precipitation from developing convection, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been withheld at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...