MD 0108 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST NY INTO VT/NH/SOUTHERN ME


Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas affected...Northeast NY into VT/NH/southern ME

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 202142Z - 210215Z

SUMMARY...Occasional moderate to locally heavy snow rates are
possible into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Sporadic moderate to locally heavy snow is ongoing late
this afternoon from parts of northeast NY into VT/NH. Favorable deep
ascent downstream of a midlevel cyclone over lower MI will allow the
extensive precipitation shield to spread northeastward into this
evening across parts of northern NY and New England. In addition, an
embedded shortwave trough that is currently producing shallow
convection across western NY may help to enhance precipitation rates
for a time this evening. 

Low-level temperatures remain relatively warm across parts of New
England, but continued ascent and evaporative cooling should help to
maintain snow as the primary precipitation type from northern NY
into much of VT/NH. Substantial cooling aloft is also expected from
west to east this evening, which could lead to an increase in
snow-to-liquid ratios prior to cessation of the heavier
precipitation rates. Farther east, gradually backing surface winds
in response to a deepening cyclone off of the southern New England
coast will eventually lead to low-level cold advection across areas
of southern ME that are currently above freezing. 

Occasional moderate to locally heavy snow rates are expected to
continue and expand into a larger portion of northern NY into VT/NH
and southern ME this evening, before an anticipated weakening trend
near/after 03Z as the stronger ascent begins to wane and shift
offshore.

..Dean.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   43547302 43717453 44137493 44597502 45007488 44967303
            44817150 44246991 43627003 43307033 43257071 43387163
            43547302

MD 0107 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT/NH/MA


Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas affected...Northern/eastern NY into parts of VT/NH/MA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 201827Z - 202300Z

SUMMARY...Occasional moderate to locally heavy snow rates are
possible this afternoon. A transition to sleet and/or freezing rain
is possible along the southern periphery of the precipitation
shield.

DISCUSSION...An extensive area of winter precipitation is ongoing
early this afternoon across parts of northern/eastern NY into New
England, with occasional observations of heavy snow noted earlier
from Albany into parts of western MA/CT. This winter precipitation
is occurring within a region of deep ascent driven by a favorable
overlap of low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence, in
advance of a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across
the Great Lakes. This area of deep ascent and winter precipitation
should continue to gradually shift northeastward through the
afternoon.

Low-level temperature profiles are somewhat marginal across the
region, especially in areas of terrain-favored downslope flow.
However, strong ascent will help to maintain snow as the primary
precipitation types within the heavier bands, potentially resulting
in localized snow rates approaching 1 inch per hour at times. Some
transition to sleet and/or freezing rain will be possible along the
southern periphery of ongoing precipitation, where ascent gradually
weakens with time but some low-level warm advection persists. 

Later this afternoon, a cold front approaching from the west will
allow a changeover to snow where above-freezing temperatures are
currently observed across parts of north-central NY, near and
downstream of Lake Ontario.

..Dean.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42677083 42097133 42287270 42877393 43417507 43697595
            44177608 44417585 44937509 44597369 43967235 43527146
            43267111 42677083

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across North Carolina was removed with this
update. Convection is moving offshore this hour, with minimal
development expected through the rest of the afternoon. 

See previous discussion for more information on potential for
thunderstorm development overnight across MS/AL/GA.

..Thornton.. 02/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing
southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states. 

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.

Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.

...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes
will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

...Discussion...
Mid-level flow will amplify Sunday as a trough deepens over the far
Southeastern US states and Atlantic Coast. An associated surface low
will move off the NC coast and deepen rapidly. This will drive a
cold front southward across the FL Peninsula early Sunday morning.
Modest moisture advection ahead of the front could support a few
thunderstorms through midday Sunday. Additional storms are possible
along the sea breeze in south FL. However, drying/warming mid-levels
and large-scale subsidence south of the deepening trough should
temper the overall convective intensity such that no severe weather
is expected.

Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible
across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly
deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated
instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.

Additionally, very isolated lightning is possible off the Pacific
Coast of WA and northern OR. Strong ascent and some moisture
advection increase with the next upper-trough. However, coverage
should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation.

..Lyons.. 02/20/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...19z Update...

Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected
for portions of central and southern TX Saturday afternoon. Daytime
heating will drop relative humidity to 15-20% with northerly surface
winds sustained between 10-20 mph (gusting up to 25 mph) atop dry
fine fuels. A small corridor in the northern portion of
South-Central TX may be more favorable for Critical fire weather
conditions in recent model guidance. However, forecast soundings
have some low-mid level cloud cover passing over the region during
the daytime hours, and given uncertainties in stronger sustained
winds, Critical highlights have been withheld for now. See the
previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliot.. 02/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

...Synopsis...
A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHERN CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday and Saturday night. A few
stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and a brief tornado are
possible.

...Discussion...
An initially low-amplitude zonal flow regime over the CONUS is
forecast to amplify considerably as a shortwave trough over the
lower MS Valley deepens while moving into the Southeast. A stalled
frontal boundary will be in place from southern North Carolina
southwestward toward the northern Gulf Coast. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before moving quickly
out to sea by Sunday morning. Sufficient moisture and ascent will
likely support widely scattered thunderstorms with some potential
for damaging gusts and a brief tornado over parts of the Southeast
and southern Carolinas Saturday and Saturday night.

...Northeastern Gulf Coast States and the southern Carolinas...
Early morning elevated storms should gradually become surface-based
as they track east/southeastward ahead of a subtle wave low along
the front. South of the front, modest diurnal heating amid mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will result in an environment with up to 500
to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Driven mostly by
low-level warm air advection, mid-level lapse rates will remain
generally poor (~6.5 C/km) which in combination with the lagged
primary upper forcing may tend to limit initial updraft intensity. 

As the upper trough amplifies, the low will gradually deepen,
potentially serving as a local focus for more sustained convection
in southern GA and far southern SC. Long straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone could allow a few more organized
line/clusters Saturday afternoon/evening. Given the strong
deep-layer shear and some buoyancy from heating, damaging gusts and
a brief tornado are possible. Forecast guidance shows a few stronger
storms in this region through Saturday evening. Should coverage and
overall intensity increase, higher wind probabilities may be needed
in future outlooks.

Farther west, the surging front will likely undercut convection
across the western flank of the warm sector as the surface low
deepens. However, stronger heating and relatively larger buoyancy
suggests isolated strong gusts remain possible with any stronger
storms able to persist. Convection should gradually diminish as it
moves southeastward toward the Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle into
early Sunday.

..Lyons.. 02/20/2026