Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds will continue for another hour or so across far eastern North Carolina. Strong convective wind gusts remain possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well. ...20Z Update... Probabilities have been removed behind a line of thunderstorms across eastern North Carolina. A short-term severe threat persists across the Outer Banks, where isolated damaging winds may occur for the next hour or so. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities have been trimmed from eastern MT, with no changes to the Marginal Risk across the northern Plains. ..Broyles.. 03/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/ ...Carolinas and North Florida... A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will continue to move quickly northeastward this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Southeast. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow should promote some threat for occasional severe/damaging winds with this line as filtered daytime heating fosters modest steepening of low-level lapse rates and weak destabilization. Even so, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit the development of any more than modest instability overall. While low-level winds have generally veered to southwesterly per recent VWPs from LTX/MHX, there is still sufficient speed shear in the 0-1 km layer to support embedded circulations within the line, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been adjusted for latest observational and guidance trends to reflect the mainly damaging wind threat with the line this afternoon, before it moves offshore into the western Atlantic. A small Marginal Risk area has also been maintained for parts of north FL where an isolated damaging wind threat should exist in the short term with the far southern portion of the line. ...Northern Plains... Very strong mid-level winds (around 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon in tandem with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moving over the northern Plains. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest very weak instability may develop south of a front across the northern Plains, such that shallow convection may develop with some threat of lightning. This convection could augment the already strong west-northwesterly low/mid-level flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts. Isolated significant wind gusts (65+ kt) could occur with any sustained convection that develops, but confidence in this scenario remains low.Read more
