Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in
the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be
favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower
forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high
pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens
across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move
southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and
dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason,
thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S.
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern
Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and
southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much
of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development
across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.

The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.

..Lyons.. 01/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.

..Lyons.. 01/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...