Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains where dry fuels align. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains... Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling Plains. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold front moves into the central/southern Plains Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region. ..Williams.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
