SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing beneath zonal flow aloft will support
relatively quiescent fire weather conditions for most of the central
CONUS today. The one exception will be over portions of the central
High Plains, where locally stronger downslope flow is expected as a
small mid-level impulse overspreads the region during the afternoon.
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH
will overlap with drying fuels for several hours, warranting the
continuance of Elevated highlights.

..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 6 07:42:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 6 07:42:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from
west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is
forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as
it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower
guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat
faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to
deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.
Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints
potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the
period. 

As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the
increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected
Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may
spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.
Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer
shear could support some storm organization. 

There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development
near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of
convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile
will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering
near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm
sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any
organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for
strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably
sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated
strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out
with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly
depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the
potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be
monitored regarding any tornado threat. 

...Pacific Northwest coast...
Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be
possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific
Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across
the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will
support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),
primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong
low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,
though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe
potential.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Thermodynamic profiles across the U.S. remain generally stable, or
at least not appreciably conducive to convective development capable
of producing lightning, and models indicate little potential for
change today through tonight. Limited ongoing moisture return, off a
still slowly modifying Gulf boundary-layer, appears likely to become
cut off, as low-level flow takes on an increasing westerly component
to the south and southwest of a modest cyclone forecast to migrate
across the southern Great Lakes region.  Increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with secondary cyclogenesis near/offshore of the
northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast by late
tonight, may be accompanied by a substantive increase in
thunderstorm development, but mostly ahead of the trailing cold
front, near/east of the Gulf Stream.

Upstream, models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo
amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
western North America.  It appears that this may include at least
one vigorous short wave impulse digging toward the Pacific
Northwest, accompanied by a potentially notable convective band with
embedded thunderstorm activity, but probably not quite reaching the
coastal waters prior to 12Z Wednesday.

Farther south, within larger-scale troughing digging across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific, a relatively
compact cyclonic mid-level circulation may evolve, with an
associated cold core that could support a developing area of
thunderstorm activity.  However, before undergoing an
east-northeastward acceleration toward northern Baja and the
Southwestern international border vicinity, it appears that this
will remain offshore through 12Z Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 01/06/2026