
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt shortwave trough responsible for isolated thunderstorms over eastern Lower MI this evening will continue to lift north across the Great Lakes, while westerly winds at 850 mb maintain a degree of instability over southwest Ontario and perhaps into parts of western NY. Thunderstorm chances here will be relatively low. To the south, height falls will occur overnight across the Mid MS and OH Valleys as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across KS and OK. Isolated activity may occur into Thursday morning from parts of MO into TN and IL/IN as elevated instability develops within a subtle warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough. Elsewhere, lift will increase across northern CA as a shortwave trough dives southeastward just offshore. Cold temperatures aloft and relatively warmer air near the coast may yield a few lightning flashes overnight. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... An embedded mid-level short wave and attendant jet arrives to the Southern Plains by Day 3/Friday along with a related lee surface trough evolving across eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Dry and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains should keep a heightened fire weather threat in place. As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a dry cold front sweeps across the Southern Plains bringing dry northerly flow and fire weather concerns to southern TX Day 4/Saturday. Widespread rainfall across much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for southern FL where dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather threat for Day 6/Monday. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern Plains... A pronounced mid-level jet and surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across much of the region on Day 3/Friday. A corridor of stronger west winds across northeastern NM and the western TX Panhandle coinciding with enhanced downslope drying, will likely yield Critical fire weather conditions for the area on Day 3/Friday amid increasingly dry fuels and recent wildfires. A 70% critical probability area has been added due to higher confidence in model guidance. Farther south, dry westerly flow will keep the fire weather threat elevated for much of eastern NM and western TX. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Texas... Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front moves into TX Day 4/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should exist across portions of central and southern TX where 40% critical probabilities have been expanded. ...Day 6/Monday - Florida... Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day 5/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal precipitation across FL. The dry northerly flow along with dry fuels should increase the fire weather threat particularly across the southern FL Peninsula where 40% Critical probabilities have been added. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Fire weather concerns could reemerge across portions of the central and southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West breaks down. However, timing uncertainty of surface trough/cyclone features limits predictability in the longer term with no inclusion of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 02/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more