
Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of
the Ohio Valley
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 020310Z - 020915Z
SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or
in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across
western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3
AM CST).
DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt
of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the
southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard. Around 500 mb, the
strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau
through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of
increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to
overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley
late this evening into the overnight hours.
It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift
maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River.
This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where
saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.
Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through
northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below
freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal
wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier
precipitation commences. As precipitable water content increases to
0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at
least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of
Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas
around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.
..Kerr.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918
37308815 38238585 39068358
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Synopsis... A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours. Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame. ...FL Panhandle... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally support a couple transient supercell structures and small line segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts northeastward into the afternoon hours. Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the weak buoyancy. ...Outer Banks.. As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2025Read more