Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating
within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level
flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface
high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry
airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week,
when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs
will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough
buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support
thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe
threat.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida
Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears
very low.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern
CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the
eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains
on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be
present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit
thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast
will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level
moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the
Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period.
Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the
chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025