Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to marginal hail or gusty winds may occur. ...Discussion... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN, resulting in elongated hodographs. At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central KY, though this front will sink south late. Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline hodographs, favoring cells. 00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the marginal area. ..Jewell.. 11/22/2025Read more