SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels. 

...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.

...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.

..Moore.. 03/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 8 08:08:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 8 08:08:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this
afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is
noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains
with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as
initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later
today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced
across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support
strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. 

...Southern High Plains...
Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this
afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM
into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations
are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is
around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP
solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry
air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air
mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that
sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between
30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week
and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal),
fuels will likely support fire spread. 

...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing
the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International
border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure
gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect
will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and
WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent
observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the
effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are
expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain
receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern.

..Moore.. 03/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3
km. 

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.

...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today,
with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A
surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the
Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime
heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates
aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and
perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on
the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode
storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal
hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt. 

...Southern TX...
Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak
warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at
the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft,
supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The
weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail)
chances today.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026