MD 0033 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK


Mesoscale Discussion 0033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of Upstate New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 222317Z - 230315Z

SUMMARY...Heavy lake effect snow band to persist with potential for
rates 1-2"/hr through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A band of lake effect snow continues along and east of
Lake Ontario across portions of the Tug Hill Plateau. Heavy snow has
been reported within this band periodically through the afternoon in
Watertown and Fort Drum, with visibility 
Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over
the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest
mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains
possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears
sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities. 

Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and
stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential.
A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across
southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave
currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near
-20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC
time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on
this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial
moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms
can be supported.

..Moore.. 01/23/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will
move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a
surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward
evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast
on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across
the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation,
stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next
week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high
pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit
fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge
building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry
conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures
returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy
north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day
4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains
largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 01/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...