MD 0625 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Far eastern Mississippi into central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292326Z - 300130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear plausible
across far eastern Mississippi into central Alabama as a front
pushes south. Confidence in the coverage of thunderstorms is
uncertain, and watch issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has been percolating across central
to northeast AL over the past hour, likely being driven by low-level
ascent along a southward moving cold front. This front is migrating
towards a fairly unstable air mass across central AL where
temperatures remain in the upper 70s, MLCAPE has recently been
analyzed near 2000 J/kg, and mid/upper-level flow is between 50-60
knots (per regional VWPs).

Given these trends, development along the front appears plausible in
the coming hours and may pose some threat for severe hail and wind.
Latest high-res guidance suggests the favorable convective
environment across central AL will likely linger through 02 UTC,
though the overall updraft/UH signal in these solutions appears
modest (including output from the typically bullish RRFS), possibly
due to somewhat weak low-level convergence along the front.
Consequently, confidence in the severe threat is limited and watch
issuance is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

..Moore/Hart.. 04/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...JAN...

LAT...LON   32498814 32538842 32698858 32938870 33238866 33478846
            34548607 34608574 34548554 34398547 34108545 33788551
            33508570 33378581 32898661 32658750 32498814 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast states. Large hail will be the primary threat in
the southern Plains. Wind damage and large hail will be possible in
the parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
states.

...Southern Plains...
Westerly mid-level flow is in place over much of the southern Plains
this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located over the Texas
Hill Country extending westward toward the Big Bend. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to strong
instability over much of south-central and southwest Texas, where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of
the instability max, a robust supercell is ongoing in the western
Texas Hill Country. Large to very large hail will continue to be
possible with this supercell as it moves southeastward across
south-central Texas this evening. Other supercells with potential
for large to very large hail may develop a further west and
southwest toward the Rio Grande this evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave
trough over east Texas. At the surface, a cold front is located in
east Texas extending eastward into central Mississippi. To the south
of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability. The axis of instability is
located from southeast Texas eastward into southern Mississippi.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a severe convective cluster
may develop this evening ahead of the shortwave trough over east
Texas and move east-southeastward along the instability gradient
into western Louisiana. If this cluster does materialize, then it
will likely be associated with a potential for large hail and wind
damage. Otherwise, convection that develops near the instability
axis in the central Gulf Coast states this evening will have a
potential for isolated severe gusts...see MCD 623.

Further north into parts of northeast Mississippi and north-central
Alabama, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe threat this
evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats...see MCD 625.

..Broyles.. 04/30/2026

WW 0180 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 180

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UTS
TO 40 NNW TYR TO 20 NE SHV TO 35 E MLU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622

..MOORE..04/29/26

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC013-017-021-031-043-049-059-069-073-081-085-127-292340-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE            CADDO               CALDWELL            
DE SOTO              GRANT               JACKSON             
LA SALLE             NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            
RED RIVER            SABINE              WINN                


TXC073-183-203-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459-499-292340-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHEROKEE             GREGG               HARRISON            
NACOGDOCHES          PANOLA              RUSK                
SABINE               SAN AUGUSTINE       SHELBY              
SMITH                UPSHUR              WOOD                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE

WW 180 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 291610Z - 300000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Far Southern Arkansas
  Northwest and Northern Louisiana
  Northeast into East Texas

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
with the stronger storms becoming supercells and yielding a risk for
large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter).  Additional
storm development will likely lead to a linear thunderstorm cluster
evolving later this afternoon.  The potential for damaging wind
gusts will become more prevalent as this transition in convective
mode occurs.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of
Corsicana TX to 25 miles south southeast of Monroe LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Smith

WW 0181 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 181

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ESF
TO 25 NE MCB TO 45 NNE MOB TO 10 SE TOI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623

..MOORE..04/29/26

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 181 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC003-035-053-097-300040-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN              CONECUH             ESCAMBIA            
MOBILE               


LAC025-029-033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-300040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           EAST BATON ROUGE    
EAST FELICIANA       LIVINGSTON          POINTE COUPEE       
ST. HELENA           ST. TAMMANY         TANGIPAHOA          
WASHINGTON           WEST BATON ROUGE    WEST FELICIANA      


MSC001-005-035-037-039-041-045-047-059-073-091-109-111-113-131-
147-157-300040-

WW 181 SEVERE TSTM AL LA MS CW 291820Z - 300200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest into South-Central Alabama
  Southeast Louisiana
  Central and Southern Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this
afternoon and persist into the evening.  The stronger thunderstorms
will be capable of a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts
(55-70 mph).  This activity will gradually push east-southeastward
towards the coast by mid evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of
Natchez MS to 30 miles east northeast of Evergreen AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Smith

WW 0182 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 182

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..LYONS..04/29/26

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC019-105-127-137-163-265-267-271-323-325-385-413-435-463-465-
507-300040-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA              CROCKETT            DIMMIT              
EDWARDS              FRIO                KERR                
KIMBLE               KINNEY              MAVERICK            
MEDINA               REAL                SCHLEICHER          
SUTTON               UVALDE              VAL VERDE           
ZAVALA               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 182 SEVERE TSTM TX 292055Z - 300400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest into South-Central Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM
  until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells are forecast to
develop over parts of the Watch area in the vicinity of a west-east
oriented front.  Large to giant hail (ranging 1 to 4 inches in
diameter) is possible with the more intense storms.  Isolated severe
gusts are also possible, especially as storms mature into the
evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Del Rio TX to 10 miles east of Hondo TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.

...Smith

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing should remain well established across the eastern
U.S. for the weekend into early next week while upper-level ridging
takes hold over the Intermountain West. Elevated westerly winds and
dry conditions will bring a fire weather threat to portions of
central FL Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday before a cold front and
associated band of rainfall shifts southward Saturday night into Day
5/Sunday. A Pacific trough intrudes into the western U.S. early next
week supporting dry, southwesterly flow across the Desert Southwest,
Great Basin and Colorado River Basin. However, limited fuel
receptiveness should mitigate fire weather concerns across portions
of the Intermountain West. Persistent northwest flow aloft over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest along with minimal precipitation,
along with several passing cold fronts, could pose a fire weather
concern next week as fuels dry. However, forecast uncertainty
remains in timing and extent of post-frontal impacts across the
region.

...Florida Peninsula...
Fire weather concerns will persist across portions of the FL
Peninsula Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday as a cold front and attendant
showers and thunderstorms remain draped across the Deep South and
Gulf Coast. Steady westerly flow over the FL Peninsula and
relatively dry boundary layer conditions will support a fire weather
threat amid very dry fuels on Friday. An upper-level trough
amplifying across the eastern U.S. and deepening surface low off the
Carolina Coast should bring enhanced westerly winds around 15 mph to
the peninsula Day 4/Saturday. Coupled with very warm temperature
(lower 90s F) and a deep well-mixed boundary layer, this will
promote a fire weather threat across central FL Saturday. 40%
critical probability areas on both Friday and Saturday were only
slightly modified based on latest forecast guidance. The cold front
and attendant showers and thunderstorms shift south by Day 5/Sunday,
bringing needed rainfall to many locations. However, there could be
some areas that evade wetting rains owing to timing of diurnal
convective cycle and rain intensity over central FL.

..Williams.. 04/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...