SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
The western upper-level ridge will amplify on Tuesday. With the
eastern surface high weakening and moving offshore, the surface
pressure gradient will weaken compared to previous days. Pockets of
marginally dry and breezy conditions may occur in central Plains and
the Midwest. A weak lee trough will also encourage localized dry and
windy conditions in the immediate lee of southern/central Rockies.
Given the marginal fire weather conditions expected, only localized
concerns are expected at this time.

..Wendt.. 03/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 23 06:09:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 23 06:09:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will modestly amplify in the Northeast today.
A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians.
Farther west, a weak lee trough will help to enhance surface winds
on the western flank of a surface high.

...Piedmont...
Dry, downslope winds off of the southern Appalachians will promote
elevated fire weather this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will be
possible in the lee of the terrain. RH is not as certain, but 25-30%
appears probable. Values closer to 20% may occur locally.

...Central Plains...
An enhanced surface pressure gradient will develop as a weak lee
trough deepens on the westerly flank of a seasonably strong surface
high in the Upper Midwest. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible.
How low RH will drop during the afternoon is the biggest uncertainty
in this scenario. Copious mid/high-level cloud cover is expected.
Most guidance suggests RH will be only marginally below elevated
criteria. Furthermore, the strongest winds may be slightly displaced
from the lowest RH. Overall, locally elevated conditions are
expected given dry fuels, but broad, sustained elevated conditions
are much less certain.

...Southwest into central High Plains...
Very dry conditions will exist from the Southwest into southeast
Colorado. RH of 10-20% is expected by the afternoon. Winds in most
locations will be relatively weak. Terrain-enhanced wind could reach
up to 20 mph. Locally elevated to near critical conditions could
occur.

..Wendt.. 03/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the
Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move east-southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will move from the central Appalachians into the western
Atlantic. A dry airmass will be located over most of the continental
U.S, except along parts of the Gulf Coast. Within this moist
airmass, isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Florida
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Instability across Florida is expected
to be weak, and no severe threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from eastern Georgia
northward into extreme southeast Virginia.

... Overview ...

A western ridge will support northwest midlevel flow across the
eastern US on Monday. Within that flow, a broad shortwave trough
will move through the Northeast out into the Atlantic Ocean. At the
surface, a weak low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will quickly move
east-northeast, dragging a cold front south along the East Coast.
The cold front will be draped across the northern Florida Peninsula
Tuesday morning.

... Eastern Georgia northward to extreme Southeast Virginia ...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the
southward moving cold front. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
remain lean as veered low-level flow ahead of the front acts to
limit convergence along the front. The airmass ahead of the front
will become weakly unstable during the afternoon, with the degree of
instability strongly dependent upon the quality of boundary layer
moisture. However, even if boundary layer moisture is greater than
00Z guidance indicates, generally neutral height tendency, poor
midlevel lapse rates, and weak deep-layer shear will further hinder
sustained robust thunderstorm updrafts. As such, organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Marsh/Wendt.. 03/23/2026