
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday as surface troughing pushes cooler air into the central US. Depending on the extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. RH values of 10-15% combined with westerly surface winds of 10-20 mph atop dry fuels may generate locally elevated fire weather conditions in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Sunday. Through early next week, broad southwesterly flow aloft in the Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a trough is forecast to move east across CONUS. Enhanced southerly surface flow may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region, though the extent of moisture advection is uncertain. Significant spread exists in the timing of upper trough ejection and development of a lee surface low. Despite model and ensemble uncertainties in the overlap of strong winds and low RH in the Southwest (and to some extent, parts of the southern High Plains), elevated fire weather conditions are likely to emerge Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday, a large upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest. Notable variance exists in long-term model solutions in the strength and/or evolution. The synoptic pattern could suggest the potential for fire weather conditions, though given the overall uncertainty in the upper-level pattern evolution, probabilities have been withheld for now. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...20z Update - Southeast... No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/ ...Southeast... A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California. ...Synopsis... The mean northwesterly flow regime currently over the CONUS will gradually begin to shift east through the late weekend and into early next week as a somewhat more potent upper-level wave approaches the West Coast. Cooling temperatures aloft associated with the approaching upper wave will support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across CA and into OR, NV, and parts of southwest ID late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Further east, strengthening mid-level flow across the central Rockies will promote weak lee cyclogenesis in proximity to a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Plains. An uptick in low-level winds will augment isentropic upglide over the frontal zone across OK into eastern KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR. Strong mid-level winds atop strong veering in the lowest few kilometers will conditionally support organized convection; however, most guidance suggests buoyancy profiles will remain fairly limited (less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE per GEFS/ECENS output) due to meager moisture quality. This limits confidence in any severe threat at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may linger across southern FL where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in place as a weak frontal boundary drifts south. ..Moore.. 02/27/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. Localized elevated fire weather conditions may arise in far southeastern Wyoming on Saturday afternoon. The ongoing prolonged downslope wind event should come to a close early evening as northwesterly flow aloft moves east and 700mb flow decreases. RH values of 15-25% and sustained west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher gusts) may exist for only a couple of hours, maintaining localized fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great Plains. ...Portions of southeastern Wyoming... Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of 15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more