SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 16 22:08:02 UTC 2026
Published: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 at 04:07:05 PM CST
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 16 22:08:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jan 16 22:08:02 UTC 2026
Published: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 at 04:07:04 PM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 16 22:08:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 at 04:02:15 PM CST
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

...Synopsis...
A large scale troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. is likely to
remain in place through much of next week, with occasional embedded
mid-level short waves and cold fronts translating southeastward
within the broad west-northwest flow. Above normal temperatures and
dry conditions are likely to persist across much of the
Intermountain West under an upper-level ridge through at least the
middle of next week. Ensemble and longer term guidance depicts a
de-amplifying wave pattern emerging for the latter part of next week
which could allow more opportunities for rainfall across the West
but with appreciable timing/spatial uncertainty of cold fronts/dry
return flow events across the central/southern Plains. Precipitation
associated with a cold front and vigorous mid-level trough is
expected across much of the Southeast on Day 3/Sunday, temporarily
mitigating fire weather threat through at least mid week.

...Day 3/Sunday - Southern Plains...
Dry southwest flow is expected to develop across the southern Plains
as surface high pressure moves towards the TX Gulf Coast. Downslope
warming and drying along with breezy southwest surface winds could
bring a fire weather threat back to portions of northwest TX and
southern OK, where a 40% critical probability area was introduced.
Farther north, post-frontal winds from the northwest will impact the
central Plains, but cooler temperatures and uncertainty in RH
reductions could limit a broader fire weather concern.

..Williams.. 01/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 at 02:03:26 PM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Central/Southern Texas to the Gulf Coast...
Breezy north and northeast winds behind a strong cold front, along
with a markedly drier but cooler air mass in place will support
elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern
Plains Saturday. North-northeast winds of around 15 mph (localized
20 mph) coinciding with relative humidity falling to below 15% in
some areas should align with receptive fuels (with above normal fuel
loading) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across
central/southern TX Saturday. A locally critical fire weather threat
will exist where sustained winds reach 20 mph near and east of the
Balcones Escarpment in south-central TX. However, cooler
temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s should mitigate a more
significant fire weather threat across the area.

...Central and Southern Plains...
Strong, albeit weaker than D1/Friday, northwesterly surface flow
under a pronounced mid-level jet is expected across the central High
Plains and southern Plains Saturday. Relative humidity will fall
below 15% within a very dry, polar continental air mass particularly
from the NE Panhandle, eastern CO, southward into the TX/OK
Panhandles. Temperatures struggling to rise above freezing should
somewhat mitigate a more significant fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 01/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/

...Synopsis...
As a cold front advances into the Gulf late Friday into Saturday,
post-frontal gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels
will warrant Elevated highlights across portions of central and
southern Texas. 

...Portions of Central Texas to the Gulf Coast...
Post-frontal winds out of the north-northeast during the afternoon
on Saturday are expected to reach 15 MPH (gusting to 20), with
relative humidity between 15 and 20%. Current ERC fuels guidance has
fuels exceeding the maximum seasonal values across the region,
warranting at least Elevated fire-weather highlights. 

...Central High Plains...
Strong post-frontal winds will continue across portions of the
Central High Plains -- particularly eastern Wyoming/Colorado into
western Kansas/Nebraska. These winds will be collocated with low
relative humidity and receptive fuels. However, surface temperatures
are expected to largely remain near or even below freezing during
the day Saturday. Some fire-weather concerns may be present during
the afternoon, though the near-freezing surface temperatures
preclude highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Jan 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 at 01:37:53 PM CST
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 01/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/

...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.

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SPC Jan 16, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 at 01:14:54 PM CST
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Southeastern Florida...
An amplified midlevel trough will move across the eastern CONUS
through Sunday evening. The tail-end of a related cold front will
cross the southern FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours.
Along/ahead of the front, sufficient boundary-layer moisture and
buoyancy will support isolated thunderstorms before the front moves
offshore. While moderate deep-layer shear would be sufficient for a
strong storm or two along coastal areas of southeastern FL and the
Upper Keys, current thinking is that limited buoyancy and quickly
veering low-level flow will limit strong-storm potential over land
areas.

..Weinman.. 01/16/2026

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