
Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Areas affected...Parts of lower MI...eastern/central IN...and
western OH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241822Z - 242045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of producing locally damaging
wind gusts are possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is moving eastward
across parts of central lower MI, where subtle midlevel height falls
are occurring ahead of a midlevel trough approaching from the west.
While poor midlevel lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture
(middle 50s dewpoints) are limiting buoyancy ahead of these storms,
around 35 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly flow preceding the
trough and steepening low-level lapse rates could support a couple
strong/loosely organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging
wind gusts. While large-scale forcing for ascent decreases with
southward extent, a similar environment may support a couple strong
storms with an attendant risk of locally damaging gusts across
central/eastern IN into western OH as well.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 39178462 38798511 38548578 38678644 38958659 39448652
40118607 40918553 41568526 42518522 43288508 44158492
44318462 44328418 44068330 43798302 42778293 41348330
40448377 39178462
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...ArkLaTex
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 241820Z - 242015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of the ArkLaTex this
afternoon. Timing of development is not certain, but a supercell or
two would be possible. Large/very-large hail and tornadoes are the
main hazards.
DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in southeast Oklahoma
into the ArkLaTex. Temperatures are just now reaching the mid/upper
70s F in this region which may mean robust development will take
another hour or two. The environment is becoming increasingly
favorable for severe convection, however. 35-40 kts of shear and
MLCAPE reaching 2000-2500 J/kg will promote supercells capable of
large/very-large hail and tornadoes. As low-level winds are expected
to remain rather modest, the tornado threat will depend on a
right-moving supercell (motion that would maximize warm-sector
residence time) interacting with backed surface flow near the
outflow boundary. Storms that cannot root in the warm sector will
tend to move more east/east-northeast into the cooler air. The
tornado threat would be less, but the hail concern would remain.
..Wendt.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32939426 33299495 34199562 34619555 34649495 34259436
33709410 33069403 32929405 32939426
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Southern and Eastern Oklahoma
North and Northeast Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
SUMMARY...Intense storm development including supercells is
anticipated through mid/late afternoon across the region, especially
in vicinity of a front and modifying outflow boundary, and perhaps
near/just of a dryline across north Texas. Very large hail is
possible, along with a tornado risk, with damaging winds also
expected to increase by early evening in anticipation of storms
clustering/organizing as they move southeastward toward and across
the ArkLaTex.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Chickasha OK to 25
miles north northeast of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.
...Guyer
Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment across the south-central Plains by afternoon. At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex... Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in coverage into the evening. Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening. Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain, since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent. However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk. Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia, near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better resolved. ..Dean.. 04/24/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches) should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex region. ...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field. The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon, setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection spreads east-southeastward. Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande... A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio). Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon. Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent, upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb) suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with 50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively. Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with localized severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front, supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk. ...Western Nebraska... A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/24/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains... No changes to Critical highlights were made across CO. Poor overnight relative humidity recoveries were noted in surface observations across the central and southern High Plains, even more so across the central and southeastern NM where RH failed to reach 25%. A lee surface cyclone across eastern CO and southward extending trough into the central High Plains, coupled with modest deep layer westerly flow will contribute to dry and breezy conditions through the afternoon. Downslope drying and enhanced winds from the west and southwest of 15-25 mph are likely across the central and southern High Plains, with the driest boundary layer conditions during peak heating across eastern CO where single digit RH values are likely. These atmospheric conditions combined with very dry fuels will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of central and much of eastern CO today. Locally critical thresholds are possible (20 mph west winds and RH of 10-15%) in favored terrain gaps and in the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains across eastern NM. A slight westward extension of broader Elevated highlights across much of the Southwest was incorporated into portions of the Grand Canyon and AZ Strip areas. Above average ERC values remain across the northwestern AZ, with several days of drying contributing to increased fuel receptivity. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity in the 15-20% range will bring an elevated fire weather threat to the area this afternoon. See previous discussion for additional forecast details. ..Williams.. 04/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains... Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity. While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th percentile. ...Carolinas... As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment primed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more