
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity. While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 02/22/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. ...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia... Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought conditions. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains... Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma. Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day 4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions. Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast. Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains, with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the evolution/strength of the cyclone. Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day 5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area. ...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains... Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through at least Day 8/Saturday. ..Elliott.. 02/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Southeast this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast States... Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Hart.. 02/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/ ...Southeast States... A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However, occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.Read more