
Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Areas affected...Far eastern Mississippi into central Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292326Z - 300130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear plausible
across far eastern Mississippi into central Alabama as a front
pushes south. Confidence in the coverage of thunderstorms is
uncertain, and watch issuance is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has been percolating across central
to northeast AL over the past hour, likely being driven by low-level
ascent along a southward moving cold front. This front is migrating
towards a fairly unstable air mass across central AL where
temperatures remain in the upper 70s, MLCAPE has recently been
analyzed near 2000 J/kg, and mid/upper-level flow is between 50-60
knots (per regional VWPs).
Given these trends, development along the front appears plausible in
the coming hours and may pose some threat for severe hail and wind.
Latest high-res guidance suggests the favorable convective
environment across central AL will likely linger through 02 UTC,
though the overall updraft/UH signal in these solutions appears
modest (including output from the typically bullish RRFS), possibly
due to somewhat weak low-level convergence along the front.
Consequently, confidence in the severe threat is limited and watch
issuance is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.
..Moore/Hart.. 04/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...JAN...
LAT...LON 32498814 32538842 32698858 32938870 33238866 33478846
34548607 34608574 34548554 34398547 34108545 33788551
33508570 33378581 32898661 32658750 32498814
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Large hail will be the primary threat in the southern Plains. Wind damage and large hail will be possible in the parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains... Westerly mid-level flow is in place over much of the southern Plains this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located over the Texas Hill Country extending westward toward the Big Bend. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to strong instability over much of south-central and southwest Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of the instability max, a robust supercell is ongoing in the western Texas Hill Country. Large to very large hail will continue to be possible with this supercell as it moves southeastward across south-central Texas this evening. Other supercells with potential for large to very large hail may develop a further west and southwest toward the Rio Grande this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave trough over east Texas. At the surface, a cold front is located in east Texas extending eastward into central Mississippi. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The axis of instability is located from southeast Texas eastward into southern Mississippi. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a severe convective cluster may develop this evening ahead of the shortwave trough over east Texas and move east-southeastward along the instability gradient into western Louisiana. If this cluster does materialize, then it will likely be associated with a potential for large hail and wind damage. Otherwise, convection that develops near the instability axis in the central Gulf Coast states this evening will have a potential for isolated severe gusts...see MCD 623. Further north into parts of northeast Mississippi and north-central Alabama, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe threat this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats...see MCD 625. ..Broyles.. 04/30/2026Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UTS TO 40 NNW TYR TO 20 NE SHV TO 35 E MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622 ..MOORE..04/29/26 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-017-021-031-043-049-059-069-073-081-085-127-292340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CADDO CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE WINN TXC073-183-203-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459-499-292340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE GREGG HARRISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southern Arkansas
Northwest and Northern Louisiana
Northeast into East Texas
* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
with the stronger storms becoming supercells and yielding a risk for
large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Additional
storm development will likely lead to a linear thunderstorm cluster
evolving later this afternoon. The potential for damaging wind
gusts will become more prevalent as this transition in convective
mode occurs.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of
Corsicana TX to 25 miles south southeast of Monroe LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Smith
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ESF TO 25 NE MCB TO 45 NNE MOB TO 10 SE TOI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623 ..MOORE..04/29/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-035-053-097-300040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE LAC025-029-033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-300040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-035-037-039-041-045-047-059-073-091-109-111-113-131- 147-157-300040-Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into South-Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this afternoon and persist into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts (55-70 mph). This activity will gradually push east-southeastward towards the coast by mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Natchez MS to 30 miles east northeast of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...SmithRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 182 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/29/26 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-105-127-137-163-265-267-271-323-325-385-413-435-463-465- 507-300040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA CROCKETT DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO KERR KIMBLE KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA REAL SCHLEICHER SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest into South-Central Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells are forecast to
develop over parts of the Watch area in the vicinity of a west-east
oriented front. Large to giant hail (ranging 1 to 4 inches in
diameter) is possible with the more intense storms. Isolated severe
gusts are also possible, especially as storms mature into the
evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Del Rio TX to 10 miles east of Hondo TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Smith
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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing should remain well established across the eastern U.S. for the weekend into early next week while upper-level ridging takes hold over the Intermountain West. Elevated westerly winds and dry conditions will bring a fire weather threat to portions of central FL Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday before a cold front and associated band of rainfall shifts southward Saturday night into Day 5/Sunday. A Pacific trough intrudes into the western U.S. early next week supporting dry, southwesterly flow across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin and Colorado River Basin. However, limited fuel receptiveness should mitigate fire weather concerns across portions of the Intermountain West. Persistent northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest along with minimal precipitation, along with several passing cold fronts, could pose a fire weather concern next week as fuels dry. However, forecast uncertainty remains in timing and extent of post-frontal impacts across the region. ...Florida Peninsula... Fire weather concerns will persist across portions of the FL Peninsula Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday as a cold front and attendant showers and thunderstorms remain draped across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Steady westerly flow over the FL Peninsula and relatively dry boundary layer conditions will support a fire weather threat amid very dry fuels on Friday. An upper-level trough amplifying across the eastern U.S. and deepening surface low off the Carolina Coast should bring enhanced westerly winds around 15 mph to the peninsula Day 4/Saturday. Coupled with very warm temperature (lower 90s F) and a deep well-mixed boundary layer, this will promote a fire weather threat across central FL Saturday. 40% critical probability areas on both Friday and Saturday were only slightly modified based on latest forecast guidance. The cold front and attendant showers and thunderstorms shift south by Day 5/Sunday, bringing needed rainfall to many locations. However, there could be some areas that evade wetting rains owing to timing of diurnal convective cycle and rain intensity over central FL. ..Williams.. 04/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more