MD 0544 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147...

Valid 260631Z - 260800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147
continues.

SUMMARY...Earlier supercells have grown upscale into a linear/bowing
cluster with continued wind damage and isolated large hail
potential.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells in southwest AR, with a history of
very large hail, have now merged and transitioned to more of a
linear/cold pool-driven structure, with the lead supercell evolving
into a comma head.  This suggests the severe threat is also
transitioning more to wind damage and embedded mesovortex
circulations, though strong updrafts in the cluster could still
produce large hail.  This storm cluster will likely persist for the
next couple of hours while moving southeastward along the buoyancy
gradient from southern AR into northern LA.  The severe-threat will
potentially reach a tier or two of counties/parishes east of the
watch, but most of the threat should remain within the watch area.

..Thompson.. 04/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33289265 33469223 33339202 32989181 32599195 32439221
            32359265 32429313 32629350 32819375 33069380 33289360
            33289265 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX. 

Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.

..Moore.. 04/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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WW 0148 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 148

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CRS TO
10 WNW DAL TO 35 SW ADM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543

..THOMPSON..04/26/26

ATTN...WFO...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-349-379-
397-467-260840-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLLIN               COOKE               DALLAS              
DELTA                DENTON              ELLIS               
FANNIN               GRAYSON             HENDERSON           
HOPKINS              HUNT                KAUFMAN             
LAMAR                NAVARRO             RAINS               
ROCKWALL             VAN ZANDT           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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WW 148 TORNADO TX 260340Z - 261000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  North Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1040 PM
  until 500 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells will continue
east/southeast across North Texas the next several hours. The
environment across North Texas remains favorable for strong
tornadoes. Additionally, very large hail has occurred with these
storms and potential for 2+ inch hail with continue into the
overnight period.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles east of Sherman TX to 50 miles
south southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 147...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.

...Leitman

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WW 147 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 260310Z - 261100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Arkansas
  Northwest Louisiana
  Southeast Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1010 PM
  until 600 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to track
southeast into the overnight hours. Nocturnal cooling and increasing
boundary-layer inhibition will limit surface-based storms and large
hail up to 2 inch diameter will be the main hazard. Isolated severe
gusts also are possible. If a storm can become surface-based, a
tornado is also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of
De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 146...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.

...Leitman

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WW 0147 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 147

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW DEQ
TO 15 ENE TXK TO 15 S PBF.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544

..THOMPSON..04/26/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC011-013-027-073-091-103-139-260840-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADLEY              CALHOUN             COLUMBIA            
LAFAYETTE            MILLER              OUACHITA            
UNION                


LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260840-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE            BOSSIER             CADDO               
CLAIBORNE            JACKSON             LINCOLN             
OUACHITA             UNION               WEBSTER             


OKC089-260840-

OK 

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.

A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.

Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.

..Moore.. 04/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent
subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a
bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and 
Gulf Coast states through this period.  This is forecast to occur
downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while
broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward
through much of the interior of North America.

Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a
significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the
lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone.  A
trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern
Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a
cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern
Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into
evening.  It appears that this may be preceded by one or two
clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing
across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and
central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.  

The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization
and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source
of lingering forecast uncertainty.  However, most guidance continues
to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer
destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and
insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of
capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline.  Substantive
destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an
outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may
retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central
through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm
frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.

...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+
kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the
triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern
Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois.  Given the
environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
 beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include
discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail
and strong tornadoes.  Gradually, it is probable that this will grow
upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as
it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into
the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening.  As this occurs,
embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong
tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts
of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
damaging wind gusts.

The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will
probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained
along/ahead of the dryline.  However, depending on how the modifying
initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into
central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened
tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging,
tornadoes possible.  Categorical and severe probabilities could
still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and
isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the
southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an
associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the
Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will
overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and
strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High
Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas.
Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over
the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts
will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and
strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during
the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the
overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of
the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the
southern Plains.

Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be
in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping
inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast
soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion
during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening
in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the
storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some
cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early
overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop.
The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible.

Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent
will make initiation difficult along the dryline.  If a storm can
become established during the late afternoon or early to mid
evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large
to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2
would also support a tornado threat.

...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in
the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will
be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated
convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up
the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early
evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.

...Central and Southwest Texas...
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located
from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a
dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The
extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable
for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026

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WW 0145 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 145

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO
35 NNW RUE.

..THORNTON..04/26/26

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC047-131-260540-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FRANKLIN             SEBASTIAN           


OKC079-135-260540-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LE FLORE             SEQUOYAH            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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WW 0146 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 146

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..THORNTON..04/26/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133-
149-260440-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARK                GARLAND             HEMPSTEAD           
HOT SPRING           HOWARD              LITTLE RIVER        
LOGAN                MONTGOMERY          NEVADA              
OUACHITA             PERRY               PIKE                
POLK                 SCOTT               SEVIER              
YELL                 


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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