SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the CONUS will gradually recombine as the
southern-stream trough merges with the northern trough over the
Midwest and Appalachians D2/Wed. Ridging will intensify over the
West as a cold front will sweep southeastward with a much cooler air
mass and gusty northerly winds likely behind it. Some fire-weather
potential remains possible over the southern and central Plains
where drier and windy conditions are possible. However, forecast
uncertainty is high.

...Central and southern High Plains...
A modestly dry post-frontal air mass is likely to develop across the
High Plains D2/Wednesday afternoon. While RH values will not be
overly low (generally above 30%) gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph
and higher gusts are expected from southern NE into western KS and
TX/OK. This may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions,
especially across parts of the southern Plains. 

Generally the overlap of gusty winds and RH below criteria appears
minimal with humidity quickly increasing through the day as colder
air filters south. Additionally, the potential for precipitation
from the prior day casts significant uncertainty on the potential
for sustained elevated conditions. However, the strengthen of the
northerly winds and some drying appears conducive to a few hours of
elevated fire-weather potential in the southern High Plains where
precipitation and cooler air should be minimized. Expansion is
possible in subsequent outlooks, pending precipitation and frontal
timing.

..Lyons.. 03/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern
Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible
where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High
Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will
move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will
deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with
strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of
the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly
low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core
upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west
of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of
20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are
likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX
and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in
brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region
and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower
RH may briefly overlap this afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of
the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over
parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of
moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an
inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation
given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is
relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain
uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the
west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery
of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update
as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details
become clearer.

..Lyons.. 03/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 10 07:19:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 10 07:19:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot east across the eastern U.S. on Thursday.
A surface low located over New England will lift northeast into the
Canadian Maritimes, while a trailing surface cold front moves across
the Eastern Seaboard and Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will
be ongoing along the front Thursday morning. While a moist airmass
will exist ahead of this activity across the Southeast into the
eastern Carolinas, limited heating and poor lapse rates will
preclude stronger destabilization (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg
expected). This should largely limit severe potential ahead of the
front. The front should move offshore the Carolinas and northern FL
into the central Gulf by mid to late afternoon. Some thunderstorm
potential will persist across the FL Peninsula, but severe storms
are not expected.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

A messy scenario is evident heading into Wednesday from east Texas
northeast into PA/MD/VA. A northern stream upper trough will develop
east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, while a southern stream
shortwave trough moves across TX and the Lower MS Valley. A broad
swath of strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread these
areas, with a particularly strong jet max across the Ohio Valley
(80-100 kt at 500 mb). At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
from southern Lower MI into central OK Wednesday morning. A
dryline/Pacific front will then extend southward across east-central
TX. A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it moves northeast
near the international border and Lower Great Lakes through
Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the surface cold front will
develop southeast, eventually overtaking the TX dryline during the
afternoon. This front will become oriented from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Ahead of the surface boundaries, a broad warm sector will be in
place, with surface dewpoints into the 60s F as far north as PA. The
strongest instability will likely be focused across the Lower MS
Valley where dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s F are possible and at
least some stronger surface heating will be possible. With northward
extent, instability will decrease, but MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg
will be common across the Ohio Valley into VA. One of the main
concerns/points of uncertainty precluding higher probabilities
across the Ohio Valley vicinity is possible ongoing convection
during the morning, and multiple rounds of convection within the
broad warm advection regime limiting lapse rates/instability and
greater severe potential. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer
southwesterly flow will support damaging wind potential across a
broad area and an outlook upgrade was considered for parts of
southeast OH/northeast KY/southwest PA and western/northern WV. If
enough destabilization occurs and a strongly forced line of
convection develops, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes could occur.

Further south into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley vicinity, a line
of convection is expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning.
Deep-layer flow will not be as strong compared to further north, but
still more than adequate for organized convection. Lapse rates are
forecast to remain modest, but linear convection along the surging
cold front will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Some forecast
guidance suggests discrete convection could develop ahead of the
line. If this occurs, some increased risk for tornadoes will
develop, especially as storms merge with the line. However,
confidence in this scenario is low. Depending on forecast trends,
outlook upgrades could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI...ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. AN
ENHANCED RISK IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible, including the risk for a few strong tornadoes
and very large hail.

...Southern Great Lakes...

Strong northern stream will gradually sag south across the northern
Rockies as a short-wave trough ejects across MT/WY. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern portion of the northern Plains
by 11/12z as a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across northwest IA
into southern MN. Late timing of this feature is not particularly
conducive for assisting daytime convection downstream across
northern IL/IN region, as height falls will lag until the latter
half of the period. Even so, latest model guidance suggests a weak
surface low will evolve along the front and track across northern MO
into northwest IL by early evening, then toward southern Lake MI by
midnight.

Boundary-layer heating should prove instrumental in destabilization
ahead of the surface low and forecast soundings suggest convective
temperatures may be breached after 21z from northern MO into
northern IL. Strong deep-layer shear favors supercell development
and this activity will spread east, along/south of a warm front that
should extend across northern IL into southern MI. Temperature
gradient across this boundary will be sharp so any supercells that
spread north of the wind shift will quickly become elevated and pose
mainly a hail risk. Environmental conditions south of the front
should be characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg with strong
0-3km SRH. Tornadoes and large hail are certainly possible with
warm-sector supercells. Parameters favor the potential for strong
tornadoes. This activity will spread east during the overnight
hours, possibly as far east as portions of northeast OH, as westerly
flow strengthens across this portion of the Great Lakes. 


...Southern Plains...

Strong upper low is clearly evident on water-vapor imagery over the
central Baja Peninsula early this morning. This low is ejecting
east-northeast in line with latest model guidance and should advance
into north central Mexico by 18z, then into far west TX by early
evening as it begins to open up. Strong boundary layer heating will
be noted across northeast Mexico, north along the TX/NM border into
western KS. As a result, steep 0-3km lapse rates will develop ahead
of the approaching trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent should
overspread the dry line around 21z and supercells should quickly
evolve as midlevel temperatures will cool quickly immediately ahead
of the trough. Very large hail is possible with initial supercell
development before strong forcing encourages a more linear evolution
and possible elongated MCS. Strong winds may accompany this squall
line.

Latest model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance may eject
well ahead of the primary low into south central TX. Deep convection
is possible ahead of this feature, but the primary concern will be
some hail and gusts.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/10/2026