SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

Mid-level flow over the CONUS is forecast to intensify and shift
southward as upper troughing over the East weakens. As stronger
zonal flow aloft becomes established, several shortwave
perturbations will move over the Rockies and into the Plains next
week. Periods of stronger westerly flow will likely support more
active fire-weather conditions in the High Plains early next week.
general amplification of the pattern should continue into next
weekend, likely with an increase dry conditions and fire danger over
the central and Southwestern US.

...High Plains...
Several perturbations within the increasingly zonal flow regime will
pass over the Rockies next week. A southern stream trough moving out
of northern Mexico will allow for modest lee cyclogenesis D3/Monday
over parts of NM and southern CO. Dry and breezy downslope
conditions are possible south of the low with RH below 20% expected
across portions of eastern NM and west TX D3/Monday. This will
likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential
despite fuels that are only modestly receptive to fire spread.

Farther north into parts of the central High Plains, a stronger
upper trough will move over the northern Rockies also supporting
strong downslope winds. A surface cold front will also move south
bolstering surface winds over parts of CO/WY and NE. Downslope winds
of 20-30 mph are possible. However, uncertainty exists on how dry
surface conditions will be given the cooler temperatures and cloud
cover associated with the front. Still, unusually dry fuels and a
few hours of strong winds and lower RH should support elevated
fire-weather conditions D3/Monday.

Episodic troughing will continue over the Rockies and Plains next
week with the overall pattern gradually amplifying into next
weekend. Ensemble spread increases by mid week but does hint at
strong troughing and increasing fire-weather potential into week two
across the Plains and Southwest. For now confidence in dry/windy
conditions and the return of Gulf Moisture/precip precludes any
additional probabilities.

..Lyons.. 02/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of
southeast AZ.  Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.

..Hart.. 02/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM. 

Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...19z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope
winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO
Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and
dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is
possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may  increase
overnight into D3/Monday.

..Lyons.. 02/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the
East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the
Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern
Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will
persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable
moisture return likely over the southern Plains. 

A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will
crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low
development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central
Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only
dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should
limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no
highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over
this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few
weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated
highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes
evident in later guidance.

Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida
Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting
localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but
shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential.
An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east
beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures
aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico.
Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with
this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern
Mexico.

..Bentley.. 02/07/2026