SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 12 21:16:02 UTC 2026
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 04:15:06 PM CDT
No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 12 21:16:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Mar 12 21:16:02 UTC 2026
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 04:15:05 PM CDT
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 12 21:16:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Mar 12, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 03:01:00 PM CDT
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for damaging winds will continue for another hour
or so across far eastern North Carolina. Strong convective wind
gusts remain possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as
well.

...20Z Update...
Probabilities have been removed behind a line of thunderstorms
across eastern North Carolina. A short-term severe threat persists
across the Outer Banks, where isolated damaging winds may occur for
the next hour or so. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities have been
trimmed from eastern MT, with no changes to the Marginal Risk across
the northern Plains.

..Broyles.. 03/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/

...Carolinas and North Florida...
A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will continue to move
quickly northeastward this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas
in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Southeast.
Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow should promote some
threat for occasional severe/damaging winds with this line as
filtered daytime heating fosters modest steepening of low-level
lapse rates and weak destabilization. Even so, poor mid-level lapse
rates will tend to limit the development of any more than modest
instability overall. While low-level winds have generally veered to
southwesterly per recent VWPs from LTX/MHX, there is still
sufficient speed shear in the 0-1 km layer to support embedded
circulations within the line, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
The Slight Risk has been adjusted for latest observational and
guidance trends to reflect the mainly damaging wind threat with the
line this afternoon, before it moves offshore into the western
Atlantic. A small Marginal Risk area has also been maintained for
parts of north FL where an isolated damaging wind threat should
exist in the short term with the far southern portion of the line.

...Northern Plains...
Very strong mid-level winds (around 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will
spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon in
tandem with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moving over
the northern Plains. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest very
weak instability may develop south of a front across the northern
Plains, such that shallow convection may develop with some threat of
lightning. This convection could augment the already strong
west-northwesterly low/mid-level flow, resulting in strong surface
wind gusts. Isolated significant wind gusts (65+ kt) could occur
with any sustained convection that develops, but confidence in this
scenario remains low.

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SPC Mar 12, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 02:15:30 PM CDT
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal upper-level flow over the CONUS early Saturday will give way
to amplification of an upper trough late Saturday and into Sunday
over the Plains. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated as a surface low
deepens within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet and
migrates from eastern WY into the eastern Plains. Increasing
southerly winds will advect moisture northward into the southern
Plains through the forecast period, but in the wake of the recent
frontal passage, moisture return will likely be insufficient to
overcome stout capping at the base of an expansive EML. Sporadic
lightning flashes appear possible within the warm advection branch
of the intensifying cyclone, but forecast soundings show poor
agreement with regards to the availability of MUCAPE. Thunderstorms
are most probable across south Florida and along the eastern FL, GA,
and SC coasts. While displaced from the strengthening low over the
Plains, southerly winds will support a weak warm advection regime
within a moist, buoyant, and uncapped environment. Diffuse forcing
for ascent and poor flow aloft should limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

..Moore.. 03/12/2026

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 01:52:17 PM CDT
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

The Elevated area focused on the lee side of the central and
southern Rocky Mountains remains on track for Day 2/Friday. Slight
expansions were made to account for the latest forecast guidance
showing winds reaching farther into western Kansas and over central
Colorado valleys. While conditions are not expected to reach
critical wind/RH criteria over a wide area, localized near-critical
conditions will be possible in portions of central New Mexico and
south-central Colorado where enhanced by gap and downslope winds.
Additionally, strong winds associated with the upper level jet are
expected over portions of the central Appalachian Mountains
throughout Virginia. However, recent rainfall over these areas will
keep fuel moistures sub-critical over the larger region.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central
and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing
transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface.
Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is
expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical
conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in
the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes
Critical highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Mar 12, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 12:24:51 PM CDT
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing east towards the southeastern U.S.
coast will continue to migrate offshore and southward along the FL
peninsula through Friday morning. This boundary will eventually
stall across south FL before gradually lifting north as a very
diffuse warm frontal zone. Diurnal heating of a moist and largely
uncapped environment will support thunderstorm development by early
to mid-afternoon - especially along the southwestern FL coastline
where sea-breeze interactions will locally augment ascent. Very weak
flow through 6 km will limit the potential for organized severe
thunderstorms, though the thermodynamic profiles may support very
isolated strong downburst winds. 

Further north, an intense cyclone will traverse the lower Great
Lakes into the Northeast through the day. Cold mid-level
temperatures may support adequate instability for sporadic lightning
flashes along the NY/PA border. Strong (40-50 knot winds) just above
the surface may be mechanically mixed to the surface by any shallow
convection that can develop, as hinted by recent HRRR solutions.
However, morning guidance depicts considerable spread regarding CAPE
availability that limits confidence in the overall lightning (or
severe wind) potential.

..Moore.. 03/12/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 at 11:43:25 AM CDT
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

Satellite imagery shows an area of high level clouds blanketing much
of the northern and portions of the central High Plains. These high
level clouds are expected to continue streaming southeast over
northern and western portions of the Day 1/Thursday Fire Weather
Outlook area. Surface observations do show westerly winds beginning
to increase across these areas on the lee side of the Front Range,
with gusts exceeding 70 mph in some locations. Meanwhile, across
portions of Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, southwest
winds are already sustained at 15-25 mph this morning.

The latest forecast guidance suggests that a cold front will push
south and eastward through the northern Plains as the upper level
trough continues to progress eastward. While the exact position of
the frontal boundary is somewhat in flux, it is anticipated to move
through South Dakota during the early afternoon and approach Kansas
about midnight before surging across the southern Plains before
sunrise on Day 2/Friday as it loses strength. Once the front begins
to outpace the mid-level jet max over south-central South Dakota,
precipitation coverage will diminish and the dry airmass will move
into place. Very strong west/northwest winds sustained at 30-40 mph
and gusting to near 60 mph will follow the front across the northern
Plains. Thus, the Elevated area was extended slightly to the north
and east over portions of South Dakota, extreme western Iowa and
northern Kansas.

Critical conditions are likely to persist at least an hour or two
past sunset over portions of southern Nebraska/northern Kansas and
east-central New Mexico, bringing the duration to over 6 hours in
these localized areas. Extreme south Texas will remain just below
elevated thresholds of wind/RH as the timing of the strongest winds
and driest air will remain slightly out of sync in that area.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and
deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt
mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper
Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy
conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains.

...Central and Southern Great Plains...
Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central
and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope
component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with
winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern
portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily
across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these
stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity
(25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall.
In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH
but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10%
relative humidity and critically dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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