SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the central and
eastern U.S. this evening into tonight, as a shortwave mid-level
trough moves across the southern Plains. At the surface, a large
high pressure area will remain in place over the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. The pattern, along with a dry and cold airmass,
will limit thunderstorm potential across the nation through early
morning on Sunday.

..Broyles.. 01/18/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Synopsis...
A broad, upper-level troughing pattern should persist across the
eastern U.S. through the middle of next week, ushering in several
cold fronts into the central and southern Plains, where dry
conditions and pockets of receptive fuels remain. Pronounced ridging
aloft will support dry and anomalously warm conditions across much
of the Intermountain West through Day 5/Thursday. Longer term
ensemble guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge across the western
U.S./northeast Pacific by late week, that could promote better
opportunities for Pacific moisture intrusion into the West by the
weekend.

...Day 4/Tuesday - Central High Plains...
Increasing west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level
short wave and lee trough development across the central/northern
High Plains should support enhanced downslope drying and warming
across southeastern WY and eastern CO Tuesday. However, preceding
light snowfall late Day 2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday across eastern CO
could mitigate overall fire weather impacts. 

...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday...
Surface high pressure is expected to slide into the Southeast/Mid
Atlantic while troughing evolves across the southern High Plains
midweek, promoting better moisture return and subsequent widespread
precipitation across eastern TX and the Lower MS River Valley.
Timing of frontal passages and spatial distribution of dry return
flow events later in the week becomes less certain, particularly
across the southern/central Plains where receptive fuels remain.
This precludes introduction of critical probabilities in the longer
term.

..Williams.. 01/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...