
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear. In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains as broader troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move south into OK/TX early Friday. This will support strong northwesterly gusts over much of the Plains and some fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front moves south temperatures will be cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. With the air mass already dry from the prior frontal intrusion, dry downsloping should result in low RH of 10-20% over much of the Plains. Strong northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are likely from western KS into OK/TX. Fuels remain very dry despite light precipitation and cooler temperatures over the preceding days. This should support widespread elevated and some critical fire-weather conditions Friday afternoon. A couple hours of critical conditions appear most likely beneath and just south of the strong 700 mb jet across northern and western OK Friday afternoon. Here, a few gusts to 40+ mph are possible overlapped with fuels in the 90-95th seasonal percentile. ...Central High Plains... Much cooler surface temperatures (30s and 40s F) are expected farther north into KS and eastern CO behind the front. However, very dry conditions, single digit to below zero dewpoints and strong winds of 20-30 mph may still pose a brief locally elevated fire-weather threat where fuels are the most receptive. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday. ...Central and southern High Plains... As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of 25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels. A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity, and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now. However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible. A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below 20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. ..Southeast... Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026Read more