Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed -- East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity...

Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region
ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the
Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front,
rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX
into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong
destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the
southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in
forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front
and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is
uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe
potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given
the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear. 

...Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast...

Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as
the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist
and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as
forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well
northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread
region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.

Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of
the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold
front shifts east across that region. However, widespread
showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and
convection could become anafrontal by this time. 

...Days 6-8/Fri-Sun...

Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend,
though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist.
This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an
upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern
Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely
with the timing and evolution of these features however, and
predictability is low.

No watches are valid as of Sun May 3 07:54:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 3 07:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLED WORD

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off
low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet
stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern
Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will
promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains
supporting elevated fire-weather potential.

...Southern Plains...
Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains
Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the
Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest
surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and
15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels,
exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support
several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a
developing dryline.

...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern
Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and
cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets
of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds.

..Lyons.. 05/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow
aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low
over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the
northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface
cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low
will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated
with it.

...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At
the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses
south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves
eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions
ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30
mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy
conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather
potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible
given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT.
However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal
and temporal extent of the more critical conditions.

...Southern Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest
gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee
cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor
transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far
northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK
have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with
minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading
exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the
confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader
fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions
will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3.

..Lyons.. 05/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening. 

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more
uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will dig southward across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Monday. At the same time, a upper low near CA and
attendant trough will pivot eastward toward the Southwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Ontario will develop northeast toward
James Bay while a trailing cold front moves southeast across the
northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity.
Meanwhile, a second surface low is forecast to deepen in the
vicinity of western KS/OK with a dryline extending southward across
central KS/western OK and west-central TX. Modest southerly return
flow will transport mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints northward
across OK/eastern KS into MO. More modest boundary layer moisture is
expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the Midwest.

...Eastern KS toward Lake Michigan and western OH...

Modest boundary layer moisture and uncertainty in timing/location of
the surface front contribute to uncertainty in severe potential for
Monday. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft will support steep
midlevel lapse rates and a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE appears
likely ahead of the front. A lead shortwave impulse will migrate
across the OH Valley during the day. This may provide sufficient
forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development within an
uncapped and modestly sheared airmass. Strong storms could produce
small hail and gusty winds. Additional strong storms are possible
during the afternoon further to the northwest near the surface front
from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer
moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading
to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer
could support strong wind gusts.

Stronger ascent will arrive after 00z across the central Plains and
Mid-MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple
points in central/eastern KS and into MO as the surface cold front
drops southward. This activity may pose a risk for hail and strong
gusts.

...Southwest OK vicinity...

Some forecast guidance develops thunderstorms near the dryline late
afternoon/early evening across the southwest OK vicinity. Large
scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region and capping may
preclude thunderstorm development. However, strong heating west of
the dryline and strong convergence in model guidance are noted. If a
storm could break the cap, a severe risk could develop. However,
coverage/temporal risk would likely be limited and confidence in
this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow
within the broader eastern US trough will overspread the Missouri
Valley through this evening. A weak cold front will extend across
portions of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. This
boundary will be the focus for potential isolated thunderstorm
development as the short-wave moves in across the region by the
evening.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Moisture quality continues to be a question within the Marginal Risk
area as previously stated in prior outlooks. Surface observations
show 50s dew points have made it as far north as the Red River in
southern Oklahoma as of late Saturday evening. There remains some
question just how far north (or deep) this moisture will be by late
afternoon across Missouri/Illinois. Most 00z guidance suggests that
50 F dew points will steadily spread into Missouri through the day
today. However, afternoon sounding profiles suggest this moisture to
be thin and potentially subject to mixing. Through the afternoon,
weak convergence along the front and a mid-level capping inversion
will likely prohibit convective development. As the short-wave
ascent arrives in the evening, 00z HREF guidance suggest that at
least isolated thunderstorms may develop (as seen in ensemble paint
balls >40z dBZ and in calibrated thunder chances around 40-50%).
Temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb).
Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps
1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Given steepening
lapse rate profiles and cold temperatures aloft, potential for a few
instances of severe hail and strong to severe winds will be
possible.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/03/2026