MD 0203 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS


Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...parts of central Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 110301Z - 110430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms remain likely this evening across WW32. A
few tornadoes, hail and an increasing damaging wind threat are
expected.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of far eastern MO/IA into central IL,
several clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing as of 0300
UTC. A mixed convective mode is present, and expected to continue,
with semi-discrete supercells ongoing over the western portions of
the watch area. These storms are moving into a very strongly sheared
air mass that remains moderately unstable (LSX VAD 0-1km SRH 500+
m2/s2). This will continue to support supercells and linear
structures capable of all hazards. With time, upscale growth into
one or more linear clusters appears likely. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible.

..Lyons.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40709160 41149045 41178950 41098875 40738831 40508822
            40018833 39808928 39629093 39659124 39709146 40709160 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
and far western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 110254Z - 110530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A risk of damaging winds and tornadoes may develop into
eastern Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and far western Arkansas this
evening and overnight. A new watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Several corridors of strong to severe storms are
ongoing from southeast KS into southern OK and North TX. Much of
this activity has become linear/MCS, though embedded cells are noted
at times. The environment remains favorable for a continued severe
risk across the remainder of eastern OK into adjacent states, with
40-50 kt effective shear and a moist and unstable air mass. Further,
low-level shear and SRH has increased markedly over the last few
hours. For instance, the SGF VWP indicates over 500 m2/s2 0-1 SRH,
with nearly 400 m2/s2 at INX which is conditionally favorable for
strong tornadoes.

Conditionally, if discrete cells can develop ahead of the
approaching lines of storms, conditions would clearly favor
tornadoes. If the storm mode remains largely linear, corridors of
damaging winds and embedded mesocyclones may still yield a tornado.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35309659 37339614 37879571 38079488 38069434 37819358
            37229334 36559337 34339433 33829481 33799549 33979649
            34659672 35309659 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0201 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 33...38... FOR NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...North Texas into south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 33...38...

Valid 110157Z - 110400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 33, 38 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential is evident over
North Texas from the Metroplex into south-central Oklahoma. A
tornado cannot be ruled out where cells are discrete.

DISCUSSION...A squall line has become more organized this evening,
with a prominent leading bow now moving across Wise and Parker
counties in TX. Just ahead of this line, small convective elements
are noted confirming increasing mesoscale lift and the unstable and
uncapped air mass.

The 00Z sounding at FWD shows robust instability with 2850 J/kg
MLCAPE, and a long hodograph. Low-level shear has increased per VWPs
this evening, aiding rightward storm propagation in the moist
low-level environment. 

In addition tot the bow, other cells developing to the north will be
monitored for further organization, including tornado potential as
this area remains very moist and unstable with increasing low-level
shear.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33599785 33889751 34359726 34649715 34929691 34959651
            34829603 34459570 33919561 33379575 33339581 33079599
            32699651 32549701 32549798 33009777 33279781 33599785 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 0033 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 33

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BWD
TO 20 NE BWD TO 25 E SEP TO 5 NNW FTW TO 40 WSW GYI TO 20 SW ADM
TO 10 SE OKC TO 35 S END TO 20 WNW END TO 35 SW ICT.

..JEWELL..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC005-013-019-027-029-037-047-049-053-063-069-071-081-083-085-
087-095-099-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-125-133-110440-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                BRYAN               CARTER              
CLEVELAND            COAL                CREEK               
GARFIELD             GARVIN              GRANT               
HUGHES               JOHNSTON            KAY                 
LINCOLN              LOGAN               LOVE                
MCCLAIN              MARSHALL            MURRAY              
NOBLE                OKFUSKEE            OKLAHOMA            
OSAGE                PAWNEE              PAYNE               
PONTOTOC             POTTAWATOMIE        SEMINOLE            


TXC093-097-121-143-181-193-221-333-425-110440-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COMANCHE             COOKE               DENTON              
ERATH                GRAYSON             HAMILTON

WW 33 TORNADO OK TX 102200Z - 110400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 33
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Oklahoma
  Western North Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon in a warm and moist air mass.  Supercells and linear storm
segments are likely, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Ponca City OK to
20 miles east southeast of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Hart

WW 0034 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 34

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE AVK
TO 30 SSW ICT TO 15 SE ICT TO 35 NE ICT TO 25 NW EMP.

..JEWELL..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC015-017-035-191-110440-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER               CHASE               COWLEY              
SUMNER               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 34 SEVERE TSTM KS 102225Z - 110400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  South Central Kansas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over northwest Oklahoma will build
northeastward this evening across the watch area.  Large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Medicine Lodge KS to 50 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.

...Hart

WW 0038 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 38

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC019-027-031-035-053-085-099-113-119-137-139-145-147-171-209-
217-223-231-251-257-259-265-271-277-281-293-299-309-323-349-379-
385-397-439-453-463-465-491-110440-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA              BELL                BLANCO              
BOSQUE               BURNET              COLLIN              
CORYELL              DALLAS              DELTA               
EDWARDS              ELLIS               FALLS               
FANNIN               GILLESPIE           HAYS                
HILL                 HOPKINS             HUNT                
JOHNSON              KAUFMAN             KENDALL             
KERR                 KINNEY              LAMAR               
LAMPASAS             LIMESTONE           LLANO               
MCLENNAN             MAVERICK            NAVARRO             
RAINS                REAL                ROCKWALL            
TARRANT              TRAVIS              UVALDE              
VAL VERDE            WILLIAMSON          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 38 SEVERE TSTM TX 110115Z - 110700Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 38
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and North Texas

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 815 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are tracking eastward across TX through a
moist and unstable air mass.  A few storms may maintain a risk of
large hail and damaging winds for several more hours.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Paris TX to 50 miles southwest of Austin TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.

...Hart

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
to southern Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northern Indiana
  Northern and Central Illinois
  Southern Lower Michigan

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a couple intense
  Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today
  and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes
  vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for
  multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very
  large hail.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Gleason.. 03/10/2026

WW 0039 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0039 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 39 SEVERE TSTM MI LH 110200Z - 110700Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 39
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Lower Michigan
  Lake Huron

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1000 PM
  until 300 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over western Lower Michigan will
spread eastward this evening, posing a risk of large hail and gusty
winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of Saginaw MI to 35 miles east southeast of Bad Axe MI.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Hart

WW 36 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 102300Z - 110500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 36
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Iowa
  Western Illinois
  Southeast Kansas
  Central and Northern Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front extending
from eastern Kansas into southeast Iowa.  A few severe storms are
expected across this region through the evening, with large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Emporia
KS to 65 miles east northeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

WW 0036 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 36

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MHK TO
20 SE TOP TO 30 NE MKC TO 20 ENE CDJ TO 30 ESE OTM TO 35 W MLI.

..LYONS..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...LSX...ICT...TOP...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC001-110240-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                


KSC001-003-019-031-045-049-059-073-091-099-107-111-121-125-133-
139-205-207-209-110240-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                ANDERSON            CHAUTAUQUA          
COFFEY               DOUGLAS             ELK                 
FRANKLIN             GREENWOOD           JOHNSON             
LABETTE              LINN                LYON                
MIAMI                MONTGOMERY          NEOSHO              
OSAGE                WILSON              WOODSON             
WYANDOTTE            


MOC001-013-033-037-041-047-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-
121-127-137-159-175-177-195-197-205-211-110240-

WW 0035 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 35

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE OTM
TO 25 SE CID TO 25 WSW DBQ TO 35 NW DBQ.

..LYONS..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...GRR...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC007-015-031-037-043-085-089-093-097-103-111-141-161-177-195-
197-201-110240-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE                CARROLL             COOK                
DE KALB              DUPAGE              JO DAVIESS          
KANE                 KENDALL             LAKE                
LEE                  MCHENRY             OGLE                
ROCK ISLAND          STEPHENSON          WHITESIDE           
WILL                 WINNEBAGO           


IAC031-045-061-097-105-139-163-110240-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CEDAR                CLINTON             DUBUQUE             
JACKSON              JONES               MUSCATINE           
SCOTT                


MIC005-015-025-037-045-057-065-067-075-077-081-117-121-139-159-

WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN MI WI LM 102240Z - 110500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Iowa
  Northern Illinois
  Northwest Indiana
  Southwest Lower Michigan
  Southern Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight
  CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread the
watch area through the evening.  These storms will pose a risk of
large hail, and perhaps damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from Cedar Rapids IA to 15
miles southeast of Grand Rapids MI. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Hart

WW 0031 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 31

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE 6R6 TO
70 NE 6R6 TO 30 S SJT TO 45 WSW BWD TO 20 NW BWD TO 45 WNW SEP.

..JEWELL..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC019-049-095-105-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-385-411-
413-435-463-465-110240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA              BROWN               CONCHO              
CROCKETT             EDWARDS             GILLESPIE           
KERR                 KIMBLE              KINNEY              
LLANO                MCCULLOCH           MASON               
MENARD               REAL                SAN SABA            
SCHLEICHER           SUTTON              UVALDE              
VAL VERDE            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from
the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to
intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.

...01z Update...

Large reservoir of MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg extends across
the southern Plains through the mid MS Valley into northwest
Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low near the
IA/MO/IL border, lifting northeast in line with earlier model
guidance. A very sharp warm front extends across northern IL into
lower MI and this will serve as the demarcation for surface-based
convection through sunrise.

Scattered supercells have developed along and just south of the warm
front, immediately ahead of the surface low. This aligns with
earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for potentially strong
tornadoes along with very large hail. 00z sounding from ILX strongly
supports this with very steep lapse rates and strong instability.
Additionally, 0-3km SRH is on the order of 300 m2/s2. This activity
will spread/develop east/northeast along/near the warm front, as
currently depicted by the Moderate Risk.

Farther southwest across the central Plains, isolated severe
supercells are developing along the cold front across northwest
MO-south central KS. These storms should gradually increase in areal
coverage later this evening as they advance downstream as LLJ is
forecast to increase across eastern OK into central MO.

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over
northeast Mexico/far west TX. This feature is beginning to open up
as it ejects northeast. Leading edge of large-scale ascent has
overspread the dry line, and earlier supercell activity is beginning
to evolve into a linear MCS from the Edwards Plateau into portions
of northwest TX. This activity should continue to grow upscale as it
spreads downstream, as strengthening LLJ across central TX will
support ongoing organization. 00z soundings from both FWD and OUN
exhibit very steep lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear, and strong
instability and this strongly suggests the potential for
longer-lived supercells and QLCS.

..Darrow.. 03/11/2026

WW 32 TORNADO IA IL IN MO 102055Z - 110400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 32
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Iowa
  Northern and Central Illinois
  Far Northwest Indiana
  Far Northeast Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should quickly develop this
afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large
hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will likely
increase through the evening with any supercells that can remain
along and south of a surface boundary draped across southeast Iowa
into north-central Illinois and northwest Indiana. A couple of
strong to intense tornadoes appear possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds may also occur.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Burlington IA to 100
miles east northeast of Bloomington IL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Gleason

WW 0032 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0032 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 0037 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0037 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 37 TORNADO IN MI LM 102345Z - 110600Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 37
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Indiana
  Southwest Lower Michigan
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 745 PM
  until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible

SUMMARY...An intense supercell over northeast Illinois will track
eastward into the watch area this evening, while other storms form
along a boundary across the region.  Tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging wind gusts will be possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles west southwest of Valparaiso
IN to 75 miles east of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Hart

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

The large-scale pattern remains progressive through the forecast
period with the jet stream favoring northern portions of the CONUS.
A trough will move through the Great Lakes region on Day 3/Thursday
with another trough and associated jet max moving through the same
areas again on Day 4/Friday, leaving much of the western and central
CONUS under west to northwest flow as a ridge builds over the West
Coast. Another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Day
5/Saturday and digs into the southern CONUS on Day 6/Sunday before
approaching the Eastern Seaboard by Day 7/Monday.

On Day 3/Thursday, surface temperatures will rebound 5-15 degrees
above normal across much of central CONUS. This will lead to a well
mixed atmosphere with the jet stream positioned over the northern
1/3 of the CONUS. Thus, dry air and windy conditions will reach the
surface with the strongest northwest winds of 20-30 mph over western
Nebraska and also westerly winds of 20-30 mph in a somewhat narrow
corridor over east-central New Mexico and much of the Texas
Panhandle.

On Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday, conditions aloft will be fairly
similar throughout both days with downslope flow likely from near
the Colorado Front Range through eastern New Mexico. These days will
have to be watched closely to determine if higher probabilities of
critical conditions will need to be introduced with future
issuances.

On Day 6/Sunday, the jet reaches farther south into the Southwest
and southern High Plains as the aforementioned large scale trough
digs farther south toward the region. Forecast guidance remains
uncertain due to the track and timing of the trough as it progresses
eastward. However, it's likely given the pattern that portions of
this area bear at least a 40% chance of critical conditions as a
cold front pushes south through the central/southern Plains.

At the end of the forecast period, much of the western CONUS will be
continuing to experience several consecutive days of drier and
warmer than normal conditions. While fuels are not yet receptive in
many of these areas, these anomalous conditions for mid March could
begin to affect fuel dryness well ahead of seasonal norms.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...