Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Despite modest boundary-layer heating observed across the Ohio Valley this afternoon, boundary-layer moisture has struggled to return to this region. Surface dew points are only in the upper 40s to near 50F across OH/KY into western PA/WV. As a result, MUCAPE is pretty meager within only a few hundred J/kg noted across this region. 00z soundings from ILN/PIT support this with 240 J/kg at PIT and 130 J/kg at ILN. While deep-layer shear is strong, buoyancy will likely remain too meager to warrant robust updrafts this evening. Latest radar data depicts weak convection, a few flashes of lighting, just ahead of the cold front over central Ohio. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage, but aforementioned negatives suggest severe probabilities are too low to warrant a risk this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/21/2026Read more