MD 0115 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NEW YORK CITY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND


Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Areas affected...New York City into Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 230024Z - 230530Z

SUMMARY...A long-duration moderate/heavy snowfall event will
increasingly impact NYC into parts of southern New England this
evening into Monday morning. 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates will
be likely, particularly after midnight EST.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery from the northern
Mid-Atlantic/southern New England shows a band of moderate to heavy
snow moving slowly northward into Long Island. Already, recent
surface observations reported 1 inch in the last hour at Islip,
LaGuardia, and JFK. This band should continue to impact parts of
southern New England this evening. The highest snowfall rates will
at least initially remain near the coast. With time, the 994 mb low
analyzed off the Mid-Atlantic coast will deepen, particularly after
11 pm/midnight EST. This will eventually promote a broader zone of
stronger isentropic ascent that will promote more widespread
moderate/heavy snow farther north. Surface winds will also
concurrently increase with the deepening of the low. Blizzard
conditions will be possible late this evening into Monday morning.

..Wendt.. 02/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   40437381 40837418 41297422 41837324 42027152 41987060
            41757033 41347048 40437381

MD 0114 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...AND FAR EASTERN VIRGINIA


Mesoscale Discussion 0114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Pennsylvania...much of
New Jersey...Delaware...eastern Maryland...and far eastern Virginia

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 222158Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow should continue into the evening.
1+ inch/hour rates remain possible in spots. Blizzard conditions may
begin within the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...21Z mesoanalysis indicates that the surface low,
located east of the Delaware coastline, has strengthened to 998 mb,
with surface observations along the coast showing northeasterly
surface gusts approaching 20 kts in spots. 700 mb WAA and
frontogenesis continues to intensify along the DE/NJ coastline, and
should strengthen further with surface low intensification. 1+
inch/hr snowfall rates are likely underway, and should only become
more common with time. Furthermore, surface low intensification will
result in increased gradient flow along the Mid Atlantic coastline,
where blizzard conditions will be possible. The current thinking is
that blizzard conditions will most likely develop in the next few
hours.

..Squitieri.. 02/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   37767705 38847675 39947600 40767509 40817445 40667412
            40307388 39797402 39377445 39007480 38357504 37597553
            37197577 37097599 37247648 37767705

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface low is beginning to deepen off the middle Atlantic coast
early this evening. Low-level warm advection will continue to focus
across the northern middle Atlantic into southern New England where
weak midlevel instability may prove adequate for lightning flashes
in the strongest snow bands.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes have been mostly confined to
offshore regions of the Pacific Northwest where marine influences
are contributing to a bit more buoyancy. Scattered weak convection
will continue this evening across western WA and a flash of
lightning can not be ruled out with this activity.

..Darrow.. 02/23/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 021200Z

Mid-level flow will remain amplified over the CONUS through the
extended forecast period. The predominant pattern will feature
troughing over the eastern US while strong mid-level flow continues
across the central US. Amplified ridging over the West will support
strong downslope flow and lee troughing over the southern and
central Plains. This will support continued Elevated to Critical
fire-weather conditions through this week and into next weekend.

...Central and Southern Plains States...
Strong northwest flow will develop over the Plains D3/Tuesday and
persist through much of next week ahead of a building ridge over the
West while broad troughing continues over the eastern US. Fire
weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread across the
southern Plains as a lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens. West/northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25
mph are likely D3/Tuesday across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle amid RH minimums of 15-20%. With area fuels exceptionally
dry, widespread Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are
probable.

Farther east into OK, TX and parts of KS/MO, surface winds will
remain southwesterly within a dry return flow regime east of the lee
low. While not as strong as farther west, gusts of 20-25 mph with
afternoon RH values below 30% will still support the potential for
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns amid
exceptionally dry fuels.

Broad fire-weather potential will continue over the southern and
possibly the central portions of the High Plains into
central/southern TX D4/Wednesday as the low moves eastward and
northwesterly downslope flow continues. Strong flow aloft will aid
in a broad area of 10-20 mph surface winds and higher gusts. RH
below 20% within areas of dry fuels appears likely to support at
least elevated and locally critical fire-weather concerns. This is
most likely over portions of the southern High Plains in NM and TX
where the best ensemble support currently exists. However, given the
strength of the flow aloft, some fire-weather potential is also
possible from WY and eastern CO into parts of KS/NE where fuels
remain dry.

Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 5/Thursday and into
next weekend regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions in
the wake of a cold front over the central US. Nonetheless, the
mid/upper-level pattern continues to favor enhanced mid-level flow
and dry conditions over much of the central US. This flow pattern
coupled with ongoing drought suggests some fire weather concerns
will remain possible across portions of the Plains late this week
and into next weekend despite limited details.

..Lyons.. 02/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...