Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well. ...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians... Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/16/2026Read more
