MD 0589 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 165...167... FOR FROM SOUTHERN OHIO ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INTO MIDDLE TO WESTERN TENNESSEE


Mesoscale Discussion 0589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...from southern Ohio across Kentucky and into Middle
to western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 165...167...

Valid 280600Z - 280800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 165, 167 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk of tornadoes persist from northeast Arkansas into
Middle Tennessee and western Kentucky, with transition to damaging
wind into eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A linear structure with damaging gusts and QLCS tornado
risk currently extends from the OH/KY border southwestward across
much of northern Kentucky. Instability drops off rapidly with
eastward extent, and the need for additional watches there is
uncertain. 

Farther southwest, supercells are ongoing over much of Middle TN,
near the eastern edge of the stronger instability. Shear remains
quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes with effective values
over 400-500 m2/s2. The tornado risk may extend a bit outside/east
of TOR #0167, and a local expansion may be needed.

Otherwise, the strongest combination of instability currently
extends from far western KY/TN into AR. Although these cells have
generally merged into a line, periodic supercell tornado risk will
remain possible, especially with any rightward moving embedded
cells.

..Jewell.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35348676 35288841 35159139 35549157 35938991 35988918
            36428824 37208796 37488695 38248462 38448434 38878410
            39038345 38738270 37928287 37538325 36048567 35348676 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
 MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast.  Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night.  At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing
encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front.  Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...
Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period.  The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas.  Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.  

Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong
west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization.  Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period.  Remnant convective cloud cover and rain
overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization.  However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development.  This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across
parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and
a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader
low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S.
today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to
progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day.
However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark
Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface
trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward
progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level
warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and
accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime,
supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical
wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely,
especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN
Valley.

...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley...
A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN
Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently
initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between
12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level
impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid
50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells
capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across
the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these
storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a
damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states. 

Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus
depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the
Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface
temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface
dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach
the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the
primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains,
promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to
initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially
straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a
severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over
northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing
severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering
low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level
curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving
supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat
will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer
mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe
hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS,
accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley.  

...Portions of central into southern TX...
Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into
southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear
exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that
can initiate, mature, and sustain itself should be supercellular in
nature, accompanied by a severe hail threat. Any instance of hail
with these storms may include stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
Since a second, low-amplitude mid-level impulse will overspread
western and central TX toward the end of the period, isolated
supercell initiation will be possible across portions of central
into southwestern TX late this afternoon into early (12Z) Wednesday
morning.

..Squitieri/Moore.. 04/28/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon.
Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on
Wednesday.

...Southwest...
Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface
troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ
into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to
previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less
than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where
delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is
expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally
less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern
FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely
along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire
weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast
guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and
rainfall amounts.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
VT amid a very dry airmass.

...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.

...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
across upstate NY and western VT.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 167 TORNADO AL AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 280245Z - 281000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
945 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far Northwestern Alabama
  Far Northeastern Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Far Southwestern Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Far Southeastern Missouri
  Northern Mississippi
  Western and Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 945 PM
  until 500 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is expected to continue
eastward/southeastward into the Lower OH and Mid MS Valleys, and
Mid-South over the next few hours. Strong wind gusts and
line-embedded tornadoes are possible within this line. Additional
more discrete storms are possible across northern MS and into far
northwest AL. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible
with any discrete storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville
IN to 20 miles south of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 164...WW
165...WW 166...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.

...Mosier

WW 0167 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 167

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ARG TO
40 WNW DYR TO 20 NNW DYR TO 30 SW PAH TO 10 N PAH TO 10 NNE OWB
TO 35 NE OWB.

..JEWELL..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC033-059-077-280640-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLBERT              FRANKLIN            LAUDERDALE          


ARC031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-280640-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAIGHEAD            CRITTENDEN          CROSS               
GREENE               LEE                 MISSISSIPPI         
PHILLIPS             POINSETT            ST. FRANCIS         


ILC127-280640-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MASSAC

WW 165 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 280035Z - 280800Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern and Central Indiana
  North-Central Kentucky
  Far Western Ohio

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 835 PM
  until 400 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts
and isolated hail will continue in the vicinity of the Ohio River
across far southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.
Additionally, the line of storms approaching Indiana from the west
is expected to continue quickly eastward. Damaging gusts are
possible within this line. There is also a low-probability risk for
a brief tornado within the line as it moves eastward across Indiana
and eventually into far western Ohio.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Lafayette IN to 35 miles southeast of Louisville KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW
162...WW 163...WW 164...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Mosier

WW 0165 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 165

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OWB TO
15 WNW SDF TO 35 NE SDF TO 35 SW LUK TO 20 WNW LUK TO 25 S DAY.

..JEWELL..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...LMK...ILN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC043-061-155-280640-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FLOYD                HARRISON            SWITZERLAND         


KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049-
053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-
113-117-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-187-
191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-280640-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ALLEN               ANDERSON            
BARREN               BOONE               BOURBON             
BOYLE                BRACKEN             BRECKINRIDGE        
BULLITT              BUTLER              CAMPBELL            
CARROLL              CASEY               CLARK               
CLINTON              CUMBERLAND          EDMONSON            
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GALLATIN            
GARRARD              GRANT               GRAYSON             
GREEN                HANCOCK             HARDIN

WW 0166 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 166

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FSM TO
15 E FLP TO 35 ESE UNO.

..LEITMAN..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 166 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC023-029-045-051-059-063-065-067-075-083-085-095-097-105-113-
115-117-119-121-125-127-135-137-141-145-147-149-280540-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLEBURNE             CONWAY              FAULKNER            
GARLAND              HOT SPRING          INDEPENDENCE        
IZARD                JACKSON             LAWRENCE            
LOGAN                LONOKE              MONROE              
MONTGOMERY           PERRY               POLK                
POPE                 PRAIRIE             PULASKI             
RANDOLPH             SALINE              SCOTT               
SHARP                STONE               VAN BUREN           
WHITE                WOODRUFF            YELL                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 166 TORNADO AR 280120Z - 280900Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and Central Arkansas

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 820 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening
across northern and central Arkansas. A strongly unstable airmass is
in place, with strong deep-layer vertical shear over the region as
well. The environmental conditions will support the development of
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and
tornadoes. Strengthening low-level flow over the next few hours
could result in an environment that supports strong to intense
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 35
miles south southwest of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW
162...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Mosier