Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on
Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level
flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In
response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great
Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough
is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday
afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the
trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over
much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass
during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer
shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for
severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a
tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also
develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable
airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains
north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat
will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the
greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where
model forecasts show the most favorable environment. 

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the
timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward
across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there
is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of
instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be
likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast,
which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on
D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the
Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously
approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will
progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a
surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia...
Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor
northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface
winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35%
during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire
weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of
western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential
for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia;
however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface
winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future
issuances.

...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor
lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for
D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15%
range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain
less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other
favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however.

..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as
a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote
largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At
the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with
high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system
will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains.

...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak
mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a
region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is
expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions
from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially
across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations
over the past 24-48 hours.

..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...