SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A midlevel trough will move from the eastern U.S. into the western
Atlantic, while a related cold front and low-topped convection move
across the central/southern FL Peninsula. A lack of buoyancy will
preclude deep convection capable of producing lightning.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 4 06:53:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 4 06:53:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface observations show a cold front advancing south
into the northwestern Gulf/lower MS River Valley. This feature is
expected to continue southeastward over the next 24 hours amid
building high pressure across the central CONUS. Despite seasonal
moisture in place along the Gulf Coast, warm mid-level
temperatures/poor lapse rates will largely limit much appreciable
buoyancy. However, forecast soundings suggest sufficient MUCAPE for
isolated thunderstorms may develop within the pre-frontal air mass
by late morning/early afternoon across the northern Gulf into parts
of southern AL and the FL Panhandle. Given the poor thermodynamic
environment, severe/organized convection is not expected, and any
appreciable lightning threat to land should diminish after 00 UTC.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/04/2026