MD 0015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE LA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHWEST AL


Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the LA into southern/central MS and
southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092146Z - 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the tornado threat is possible into
early evening. Damaging wind and isolated hail are also possible.
Watch issuance through the remainder of the afternoon appears
unlikely, but a Tornado Watch will likely be needed at some point
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon from
LA into southern MS, within a seasonably warm/moist and moderately
unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is strong region-wide, but
convection has largely remained disorganized thus far, likely due to
generally weak ascent and the presence of a warm nose around 700 mb
noted in 18Z soundings from LIX and LCH. 

With time, ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper shortwave
trough may support increasing storm organization from late afternoon
into the evening. Low-level flow/shear (which has generally weakened
this afternoon) will also increase in response to the approaching
shortwave, though any more substantial strengthening may not occur
until later this evening. 

The current expectation is for a gradually increasing threat of more
organized clusters and a few supercells from late afternoon into the
evening, accompanied by some tornado and wind-damage threat, and
potentially isolated hail. Watch issuance through the remainder of
the afternoon appears unlikely, but Tornado Watch issuance will
become increasingly likely with time into this evening, due to the
anticipated strengthening of the low-level wind profile.

..Dean/Smith.. 01/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31799353 32079086 32208966 32248896 32208842 31938785
            31768778 30788879 29608986 29789201 29789252 29959338
            31219355 31799353 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures will likely
dominate the western U.S. under a relatively stagnant upper-level
ridging pattern across the region. Broad northwest flow and
upper-level troughing across the eastern U.S. will continue to usher
in periods of colder temperatures and some precipitation via frontal
systems through late next week, although the High Plains should
remain largely dry.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
A dry return flow pattern should materialize early next week across
the Southern Plains as surface high pressure settles into the
southeastern U.S. Although dry conditions will persist, surface
winds from the west/southwest should remain muted, limiting a
broader fire weather threat. A more amplified upper-level pattern
should emerge by Day 6/Wednesday accompanied by a broad cold front
across the central U.S. This could present a fire weather concern
for portions of the Southern Plains/TX. Increasing northwest flow
aloft over the central/southern Rockies by Day 7/Thursday and
another potential cold front will promote a favorable downslope wind
set up in the lee of the central/southern Rockies. Some uncertainty
in frontal timing limits predictability at this time with no
critical probabilities introduced. 

...Day 3/Sunday - Southeast...
Considerable rainfall associated with an upper-level trough and
surface cold front over the weekend will likely mitigate fire
weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic
for early next week. However, portions of southern Georgia, Coastal
Plains of the Carolinas and Florida could evade heavier rainfall.
This region could be exposed to dry, post-frontal flow from the
northwest on Day 3/Sunday although marginal fuels precludes
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 01/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states.  A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.

...20Z Update...
A stronger storm has evolved out of activity in central Texas. This
activity is occurring along a buoyancy gradient along the surface
boundary. While storms will likely remain elevated, a strong to
severe storm or two may be capable of marginally severe hail. The
Marginal has been adjusted to account for this potential.
Additionally, the Slight risk has been moved slightly southward in
central Mississippi given persistent northerly winds and drying low
levels in northern portions of the state. See the previous forecast
for additional details.

..Wendt.. 01/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/

...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon.  Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass.  Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight.  In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.  

...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA.  Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley.  In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight.  The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.  This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight.  Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.  Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify.  This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms.  A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard.  However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...South-Central Texas and Edwards Plateau...
A dry, post-frontal environment will be in place across the Southern
Plains for Day 2/Saturday as an upper-level trough progresses
eastward and surface high pressure builds into the region. Current
observations and short term model guidance suggests showers and
thunderstorms evolving from late Day 1/Friday through early Day
2/Saturday will remain largely east of the eastern extent of
existing elevated highlight area across central TX. Farther west,
dry conditions including single digit surface dew points and RH
values as low as 15%, combined with broad northerly post-frontal
flow of 10-15 mph (locally sustained 20 mph ) will promote a few
hours of heightened fire weather concern in south-central TX and
Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon. Fire weather concerns diminish
late Saturday afternoon and evening as winds relax and colder
temperatures in the 30s settle into region.

..Williams.. 01/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the
central US D2/Saturday. In the wake of the trough, a cold front will
sweep southeastward through the Plains. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop over much of the Plains, with the driest portions
expected across parts of south-central TX and the Rio Grande Valley.
Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with the dry air
mass likely supporting elevated fire-weather conditions over
portions of south-central TX and the Big Bend Region Saturday
afternoon.

As the front moves eastward, there is some uncertainty regarding how
far west thunderstorms will form overnight D1/Friday into early
D2/Saturday. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may briefly be
possible farther east if significant rain does not fall. However,
the most likely corridor is farther west toward the Big bend region
where the strongest winds and lowest RH are expected to persist.
Fire-weather concerns will quickly abate near sunset as a cooler air
mass enhances RH recoveries and winds slacken.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Strong forcing for
ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates preceding the trough
could result in an isolated lightning flash with low-topped
convection overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. However, low confidence
in this scenario and expected limited coverage precludes a TSTM area
at this time. Upstream, an expansive cool/dry air mass will limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/09/2026