SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. Deep layer
west-northwest flow over the central/southern Rockies increases
through Day 2/Saturday as an upstream mid-level short wave
approaches the Great Plains. A strengthening lee trough across the
central/southern Plains combined with the broad northwesterly flow
aloft should promote a dry and breezy downslope regime across
southeastern NM and TX Permian Basin region Saturday. A few hours of
sustained west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity
below 15% are likely, although fuels will remain largely unreceptive
to wildfire spread, limiting the fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 12/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee
cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will
likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the
southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent
wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 5 19:50:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 5 19:50:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move
from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In
response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible
into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an
approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will
tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.

Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the
Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective
showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern
MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast
soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be
sufficiently deep for lightning production. 

Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally
supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL
Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be
ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic
zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be
limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may
approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in
deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates
and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the
organized-severe threat.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across
the Southeast states, and over parts of the northern Rockies.

Added a small area of thunderstorm potential along the ID/MT border
for later this afternoon and evening.  A strong shortwave trough and
associated mid/upper level jet max are digging southeastward into
the region.  This will provide favorable large-scale ascent, while
forecast soundings show the potential for weak, elevated CAPE.  This
may result in a few lightning flashes.

No changes were made to the southeast states, where scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and
evening.

..Hart.. 12/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/

...Synopsis...
A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through
tonight.  Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a
trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the
Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region.  Visible-satellite
imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from
the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL
Panhandle and far southern GA.  Occasional weak elevated
thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary
from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA.  A small area for a
stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big
Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the
front.  However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing
for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm
activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some
diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to
upper flow.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move
offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a
midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move
southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS
Valley. 

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the
FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the
central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is
expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where
thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Weak lee troughing
development across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough
ejects into the Great Plains will promote a favorable dry, downslope
environment across portions of eastern NM and TX Permian Basin
today. West-northwest winds of 15 mph combined with relative
humidity in the 15-20% range are expected, but recent precipitation,
relatively cool conditions and unreceptive fuels should limit
broader fire weather concerns.

..Williams.. 12/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across
eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low
develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20
percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon.
However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High
Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any
widespread fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through
tonight.  Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a
trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the
Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region.  Visible-satellite
imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from
the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL
Panhandle and far southern GA.  Occasional weak elevated
thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary
from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA.  A small area for a
stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big
Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the
front.  However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing
for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm
activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some
diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to
upper flow.

..Smith/Wendt.. 12/05/2025