Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today. ...Central/southern Florida Peninsula... Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the marginality of the overall scenario. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026Read more