Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into
the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot
mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the
surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from
central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the
moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late
afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow.
Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates
will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of
producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest
potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas
north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A
severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the
north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the
Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front
during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a
marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon
over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the
Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to
move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of
the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary
from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to
the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place
from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow
again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be
favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that
heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong
upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central
U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central
Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the
forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model
guidance.

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 3 09:55:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0127 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...WESTERN/NORTHERN MD...EASTERN WV...NORTHERN VA


Mesoscale Discussion 0127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA...western/northern
MD...eastern WV...northern VA

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 030536Z - 031130Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to develop and spread
east-northeastward overnight.

DISCUSSION...A large area of light precipitation is ongoing late
this evening across parts of OH/WV/VA. A veering low-level wind
profile and strengthening flow in the lowest 2 km AGL (as observed
in the KRLX VWP) are indicative of a low-level warm-advection regime
that will sustain this area of precipitation as it spreads
east-northeastward into the overnight. Precipitation will eventually
spread into parts of western/central PA/MD, eastern WV, and northern
VA that are currently below freezing, resulting in an increasing
coverage of winter precipitation. 

Some sleet and/or light snow may fall at the onset of precipitation,
especially where colder antecedent temperatures (20s F) are in place
across parts of PA and northern MD. Otherwise, an increasingly
prominent warm nose in the 900-800 mb layer should allow for
development of freezing rain into the overnight hours as
precipitation spreads east-northeastward. Precipitation should
generally remain rather light, though liquid-equivalent rates
approaching 0.05 inches per 3 hours will support ice-accretion
potential, especially in terrain-favored areas where colder
temperatures and locally greater rates may persist. Southern and
western portions of the MCD area may eventually warm above freezing
overnight, but near/sub-freezing surface temperatures are expected
to persist through dawn from central PA into northern VA/MD.

..Dean.. 03/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   39177680 38547781 38187902 38007983 38168033 38418004
            38807975 39227943 40507923 40747966 40868004 41118040
            41348037 41678004 41747966 41577849 40377692 39837658
            39507660 39177680

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail,
isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible.
Marginally severe storms may also develop from Thursday evening into
the overnight across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, flow will become southwesterly across the Great
Plains on Thursday, as a strong low pressure system moves though the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a low will deepen across eastern
Colorado, as south-southeasterly flow strengthens across the
southern and central Plains. Low-level moisture will advect
northward across Oklahoma, northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle
during the afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop across west
Texas as a thermal/instability axis sets up over west-central Texas.
Scattered storms are expected to initiate near the dryline on the
Caprock in the late afternoon, moving eastward into the southern
Plains during the early evening. As moisture advection continues,
additional storms should develop further north into far southern
Kansas during the evening.

Late afternoon forecast soundings in west Texas from Big Spring to
Childress have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg,
and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. A tornado
threat, along with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with the most intense cells. The storms are expected to
move eastward into western Oklahoma and the Lower Rolling Plains of
northwest Texas during the evening, with additional cells developing
across southern Kansas. The strengthening low-level jet will help
sustain a threat for hail and severe gusts.

Further north across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley,
moisture and instability will gradually increase during the evening
as a low-level jet strengthens. Scattered elevated storms are
expected to develop near the low-level jet around midnight and
should increase in coverage during the overnight period. MUCAPE in
the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the
7 to 8 C/km range should be favorable for hail. The severe threat is
expected to persist through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
central Great Plains through D2/Wednesday as a more amplified
upper-level trough digs southeastward into the West. At the surface,
a weak cyclone will transition northeastward across the Midwest
along a nearly stationary boundary forecast to extend from far west
Texas northeastward into the Midwest and then eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and modestly
increased RH within the post-frontal air mass are expected to temper
any fire weather concerns across much of the central and southern
High Plains. While a corridor of stronger sustained surface winds
(15-20 mph) is forecast ahead of the surface low from southern Texas
into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, richer low-level moisture
will maintain surface RH above 40-50% across region. 

Meanwhile, a second surface cyclone will shift southeastward from
Alberta into southeastern Montana and may bring a brief period of
localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High Plains;
however, sustained winds are forecast to remain light (less than 15
mph) across any areas that do see decreased RH values of 20% or
less. Given the expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger
sustained winds, widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern
Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the
primary threats.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward
across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the
surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across
north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface
temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support
convective initiation along the front during the mid to late
afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the
front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early
evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
organize along and ahead of the front.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith,
Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear
up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8
C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail,
especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be
discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should
organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage
potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with
supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should
persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a
low-level jet strengthens.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday
across much of the east-central U.S. An axis of moisture and
instability will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Near this axis of
instability, low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. This will
create lift, supporting scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Forecast soundings along and
near this axis in the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will be
around 500 J/kg, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be present.
In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep,
generally in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support an
isolated large hail threat with cells that rotate. A marginal
wind-damage threat may develop further west in the mid Mississippi
Valley, where a few surface-based storms will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
southern High Plains this afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.

Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
accompanying the frontal passage.

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri.

...Southern Plains/Central MO...

Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to
eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max
translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will
progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the
surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful
cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the
synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the
overnight hours.

Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into
the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be
breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However,
forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the
dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating
will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based.

Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the
day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much
colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings
suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely
during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the
strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a
corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms
may generate severe hail.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026