Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts. ... Discussion ... The upper-air pattern across the United States will remain best characterized by broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Within this flow, the primary focus will be on a shortwave trough forecast to drop southward from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Southeast. Recent guidance suggests trend toward a weaker, more dampened trough as it dives south of the main belt of mid-level flow. In response to this weaker, more detached forcing, a surface low is forecast to develop much farther south than originally anticipated, likely across the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. Recent model trends indicate this cyclone will not develop as deeply, resulting in a notably weaker low-level wind field across the warm sector. Consequently, the associated surface cold front appears likely to merely sag southward rather than being dynamically driven, as the lack of robust cyclogenesis and a weaker trough limit frontal acceleration. Despite weaker forcing and diminished convergence along the sagging front, some guidance suggests that buoyancy profiles may be slightly improved compared to previous outlooks, though they remain meager overall. Moisture return should yield surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to low 60Fs, which may support a narrow, forced convective band. Kinematically, forecast soundings indicate that low-level curvature is less than previously forecast, limiting the localized tornado potential, but hodographs remain quite long due to the persistence of stronger flow aloft. This maintains sufficient deep-layer shear for organized linear structures capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. However, given the weakening trends in forcing and low-level kinematics, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 5% severe probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 02/24/2026Read more
