Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Morning Update... Changes were made to the previous forecast to extend the Elevated fire risk along the southern Colorado Front Range. This morning, low RH values of 10-20% are present in the lee of the Rockies with sporadic gusts up to 40 mph extending to the Laramie Range. As the area approaches peak heating, deep mixing coupled with westerly downslope flow will support sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and terrain-induced isolated gusts of 35-45 mph, supporting Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. In central to east-central New Mexico, sustained winds are forecast to be much lighter than previous days. This morning, a few gusts of 20-30 mph were observed in Albuquerque and east of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. RH is expected to drop to 10-20% for a few hours this afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. These conditions overlapping dry fuels should support Elevated Fire Weather conditions today. For parts of the northern Missouri Valley into the Corn Belt and Midwest, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon. Morning surface RH values are gradually dropping between 30-40% and will likely decrease to 20-30% by peak heating. Ahead of an advancing cold front, broad sustained west-southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph are expected, possibly up to 30 mph in a localized area of northeastern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa. Given recent precipitation across the region, sporadic fine fuels may be receptive to fire, keeping fire weather concerns fairly localized. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies ahead of a southward surging cold front. ...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle... Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire. Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the Palmer Divide this afternoon. ...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico... Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however, winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. ...Northern Plains into the Midwest... A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east, lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
