MD 0036 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest Texas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 240030Z - 240430Z

SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation will continue across
portions of southwestern and west-central Texas through the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations across southwestern Texas into
west-central Texas are showing a variety of wintry precipitation
types from light snow into the Panhandle to a mix of sleet/freezing
rain closer to the I-20 corridor. 00z sounding data from Amarillo
shows a weakening warm nose above 850mb, which supports the
transition to mostly snow across the Panhandle. 

RAP forecast soundings along and south of the Red River and along
and north of I-20 continue to show a pronounced warm nose around
850-700 mb through much of the evening into tomorrow morning. This
warmer air atop sub-freezing surface temperatures will support a
predominate precipitation type of mostly light to moderate sleet and
occasional light snow north of I-20, with a transition to light
freezing rain along and south of I-20 where a deeper layer of warm
air aloft resides.

..Thornton.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32430265 33110200 34130103 34630035 34939957 34939903
            34159817 33829790 33499772 32869778 32509840 32199934
            31920027 31660094 31550168 31730243 32430265

MD 0035 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and
southern Arkansas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 232350Z - 240445Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across
portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over
the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern
Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain
rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into
southern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate
precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into
southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These
plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic
upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic
response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to
gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result
in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into
southern AR. 

At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that
temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer
than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings
(implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be
better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft
(especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and
suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation
type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts
further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and
southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls
on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet
observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the
next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region.

Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates
up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into
southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary
precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to
heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose
at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet
to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours
roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast.

..Moore.. 01/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891
            34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540
            34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121
            33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...01z Update...

Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the
southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the
polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA.
This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region
later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for
elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance
continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the
front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not
particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is
expected to remain weak.

..Darrow.. 01/24/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

...Synopsis...
A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of
the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will
encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday,
while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New
England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive
southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with
reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average
temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper
ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great
Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next
week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA
northward into the Pacific Northwest.

Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very
low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern
2/3 of the CONUS.

..Barnes.. 01/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...