
STATUS REPORT ON WW 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FDY TO 25 NNE FDY TO 40 WNW CLE TO 25 NNE CLE. ..DEAN..04/15/26 ATTN...WFO...CLE...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC043-077-093-123-143-147-150940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ERIE HURON LORAIN OTTAWA SANDUSKY SENECA LEZ143-144-145-163-164-165-150940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TORead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1140 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along a cold front and move across the watch area. A few storms will pose a risk of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Ottumwa IA to 20 miles northeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW 115...WW 116... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...HartRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE OXV TO 35 NE MLI. ..DEAN..04/15/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC131-161-150940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER ROCK ISLAND IAC101-107-115-139-163-183-150940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON KEOKUK LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley... An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening. ...Days 5-6/Sun-Mon... Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed... An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A robust upper trough will eject eastward from the northern High Plains and central Rockies to the Upper Midwest and central Plains on Friday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Flow at 850-700 mb around 40-60 kt will be common. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN to a low over eastern NE Friday morning. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest from the NE low into central KS, northwest OK and western TX. A warm front initially arcing across central IA into south-central IL will lift northward through the period ahead of the eastward-advancing surface low tracking across northern IA/southern MN into WI. A warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by midday, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints extending north into portions of eastern MN and WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km) will overspread this moist boundary layer, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. As strong ascent overspreads the aforementioned surface boundaries by mid afternoon, widespread thunderstorm development is expected. While initial supercells are possible given a favorable thermodynamic environment and supercell vertical wind profiles, linear forcing along the front combined with strong deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the initiating boundary may result in rapid upscale development into a QLCS, particularly from northeast KS/northwest MO into IA. A well-organized line of convection will pose a damaging wind risk along with possible QLCS tornadoes as convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening. If any discrete supercells develop, an all-hazards risk will also accompany that activity. Further south across southern KS into OK, supercell development may be more probable, at least initially. Convection will initially develop along the dryline prior to the cold front overtaking this boundary later in the evening. Any supercells that develop and can maintain discrete characteristics will pose a risk for very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds. With time, the cold front will overtake the dryline during the evening and move southeast overnight. Linear convection is expected along the front, posing a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk during the nighttime hours. Capping, weakening large-scale ascent and more modest vertical shear with southern extent may limit storm potential along the dryline in western/west-central TX. ..Leitman.. 04/15/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England. This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. ... New York vicinity... Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime. Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of 30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at 500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected. ...Mid-South and Ohio Valley... Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 04/15/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the southern Great Basin/Four Corners on Thursday. A modest subtropical jet stream will develop across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will deepen in the vicinity of the Black Hills. A fairly strong cold front will progress southward into the central Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into central High Plains... This region will generally exist in between the developing southern stream jet and the digging trough to the northwest for most of the period. Some increase in mid-level winds may occur by late afternoon, however. A very dry airmass is expected. RH could approach single digits locally, but will more broadly be 10-20%. This is forecast despite increasing mid/upper clouds with time. The overall expectation is for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Sustained critical could occur locally, but confidence highlighting where this will occur remains low. ...Far eastern Wyoming into Nebraska/South Dakota... As the surface low deepens, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH values of 10-20% will occur during the afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow will generally remain farther west of the region which should limit the potential for sustained critical conditions. Further, the cold front is forecast to progress southward which will lead to a stark shift to northerly winds and greater RH. Given the strength of the front, the more southern frontal solutions have been weighted higher in this forecast. ...Southern Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic... The persistent dry return flow pattern will continue another day. Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F will again promote a broad area of reduced RH values during the afternoon. 25-35% will again be common, but areas near 20% are still possible. Winds will still be somewhat weak at 10-15 mph, but very dry fuels will still support a elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A migratory upper-level wave is evident in water-vapor imagery over northern Mexico. This feature will lift northeastward into the Plains through the day, resulting in the eastward progression of a modest surface cyclone from the central High Plains into eastern NE by late afternoon. A broad, uncapped, and moderately sheared warm sector will be in place from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and eastward into the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across much of this warm sector, whether induced by ascent ahead of the primary upper wave or by localized mesoscale boundaries. ...Iowa and northern Missouri... Thunderstorm development appears likely by late afternoon from central IA into northern MO in the vicinity of the surface low. Stronger mid-level height falls compared to previous days lends higher confidence in thunderstorm development, and 50-60 knot 500 mb flow overspreading much of the warm sector will support organized convection, including the potential for splitting supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes across IA and northern MO. A focused zone of higher tornado potential may emerge roughly along the I-80 corridor where backed low-level winds along the effective warm front will locally augment SRH and could support a strong tornado. HREF/REFS guidance both show the strongest UH signals across this zone, warranting higher (5%) tornado probabilities. ...Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas... Further south, initially discrete cells are anticipated along the dryline from southeast KS into OK and north TX by mid-afternoon. Despite somewhat higher confidence in storm development compared to previous days, mean flow vectors along the boundary may promote clustering and upscale growth within a few hours after initiation. This scenario appears to be reflected in recent HREF/REFS guidance in the form of numerous, but weak, UH streaks, as well as in deterministic CAM solutions that depict one or more convective bands emerging by early evening. Additionally, guidance hints at the potential for morning convection across parts of OK and the Ozark Plateau. It remains unclear what influence - if any- this activity will have on the southern Plains warm sector or if any outflow boundaries can emerge and focus a higher severe threat along mesoscale corridors. Given these uncertainties, all severe probabilities were expanded to account for the fairly wide envelope of potential outcomes, most of which will likely feature the potential for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes. ...Great Lakes into New England... The combination of low to mid-60s dewpoints and the eastward advection of an EML will support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg across much of the Great Lakes region with gradually diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent towards the New England coast. Aloft, 40-50 knot westerly mid-level winds will remain in place within the crest of a modest ridge, establishing a zonal corridor of a buoyant and moderately sheared environment. It appears likely that multiple outflow boundaries and/or mid-level perturbations associated with upstream MCSs across MI, AR, and IA will likely reside within the warm sector by peak heating. Thunderstorm development along or in the vicinity of these features will support multiple corridors of strong to severe convection. This scenario is depicted by most recent CAMs, which show multiple convection bands traversing the warm sector through early evening. However, exactly where these bands will become established (and where corridors of higher severe potential will emerge) remains uncertain given variance in recent guidance. ..Moore/Wendt.. 04/15/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will depart the southern Plains through the day today. A weak lee trough will develop in the High Plains. Dry return flow will continue in the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... Modest mid-level winds across the southern Rockies will promote a weak lee trough to the east. Surface winds of 15 to locally 20 mph are possible amid a dry airmass (10-20% RH by the afternoon). Elevated fire weather is expected given continued lack of rainfall and dry fuels. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s to low 90s F. RH of 25-35% is probable for most areas, but values closer to 20% may occur locally. Very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BEH TO 20 SE AZO TO 20 WSW JXN TO 15 SE LAN TO 30 NW MTC TO 35 S BAX TO 15 ENE BAX. ..DEAN..04/15/26 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC039-087-091-141-151-150640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELKHART LAGRANGE LA PORTE ST. JOSEPH STEUBEN MIC021-023-027-059-063-065-075-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-151- 161-163-150640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM JACKSON LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH SANILAC WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-LMZ043-046-080-849-Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MKO TO 30 NE MKO TO 30 WSW JLN. ..THOMPSON..04/15/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-041-115-135-150540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE OTTAWA SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more