SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
gradually shifts into the region.

...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
...Northern Plains...
Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
amid very dry fuels.

...Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Fri May 1 21:44:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 1 21:44:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening
into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some trimming
was done to thunder/severe probabilities in western into southern
Texas, with 5 percent hail probabilities added in southern LA, to
account for the latest storm trends and near-term guidance
consensus.

..Squitieri.. 05/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua.  This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough.  As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance.  Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon.  A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update.  See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.

Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle.  North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields.  Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...Afternoon Update...
Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal
progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,
resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the
cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the
front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35
percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern
WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few
hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before
rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger
winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical
highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the
frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions. 

In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account
for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph
and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave
will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern
Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of
the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is
expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing
low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds
along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in
sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up
to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,
exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the
frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into
the overnight hours.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.

...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.

...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS
will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave
troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower
Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to
shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the
southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the
northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will
move southeastward into the Midwest.

...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys...
Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to
be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F
dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited
moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at
500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears
possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is
reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and
aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms
can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary
layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this
outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest
guidance trends.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S.
on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the
period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold
front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.

...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of
this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in
a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm
layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest
cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is
expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon
of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold
front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the
convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters
could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would
likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still
a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm
mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet
will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east
through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be
out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the
overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow
zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and
boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning.
Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics
is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026