
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon. ..Halbert.. 02/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota...and
southwest Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 200500Z - 201000Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop/spread across northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin over the next several hours. Snow rates may
exceed 1 inch per hour at times.
DISCUSSION...Southwest-northeast oriented band of moderate-heavy
snow persists across IA late this evening. This band is expected to
spread/develop across northeast IA into southwest WI as the 700mb
low advances across eastern IA into southern WI by 12z. Latest
radar/satellite imagery suggest multiple heavier bands will begin to
coalesce along an axis from near ALO-PDC-VOK as the primary midlevel
circulation shifts east over the next few hours. While heavy snow
with rates around 1 inch per hour are expected, a very narrow zone
of mixed precipitation may exist along the eastern fringe of this
corridor briefly before transitioning to snow.
..Darrow.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43019271 43669143 44269029 43998980 42889077 42349218
43019271
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any ignitions during the afternoon. ..Halbert.. 02/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts. ... Discussion ... Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and approaching northern stream trough. A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to sea by Sunday morning. Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens. ..Marsh.. 02/20/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES ...SUMMARY... Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds. To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral. While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026Read more