
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts. ... Discussion ... The upper-air pattern across the United States will remain best characterized by broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Within this flow, the primary focus will be on a shortwave trough forecast to drop southward from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Southeast. Recent guidance suggests trend toward a weaker, more dampened trough as it dives south of the main belt of mid-level flow. In response to this weaker, more detached forcing, a surface low is forecast to develop much farther south than originally anticipated, likely across the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. Recent model trends indicate this cyclone will not develop as deeply, resulting in a notably weaker low-level wind field across the warm sector. Consequently, the associated surface cold front appears likely to merely sag southward rather than being dynamically driven, as the lack of robust cyclogenesis and a weaker trough limit frontal acceleration. Despite weaker forcing and diminished convergence along the sagging front, some guidance suggests that buoyancy profiles may be slightly improved compared to previous outlooks, though they remain meager overall. Moisture return should yield surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to low 60Fs, which may support a narrow, forced convective band. Kinematically, forecast soundings indicate that low-level curvature is less than previously forecast, limiting the localized tornado potential, but hodographs remain quite long due to the persistence of stronger flow aloft. This maintains sufficient deep-layer shear for organized linear structures capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. However, given the weakening trends in forcing and low-level kinematics, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 5% severe probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 02/24/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley. ... Discussion ... A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight near the Red River. Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector. However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area. Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms. ..Marsh.. 02/24/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... ...Central/southern High Plains... Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level winds will be maintained across the central and southern Rockies on Wednesday. Lee troughing will extend across much of the central/southern High Plains. Dry downslope winds of 20-30 mph appear possible in portions of east-central and southeast New Mexico as stronger upper-level winds nudge farther south and align with the peak of the cross-terrain surface gradient. With at least some connection to the mid-level moisture plume on the West Coast, high-level cloud cover and a modest increase in surface dewpoints are possible. Guidance is not overly confident in RH lower than 15% for more than a short period. However, the enhanced winds at the surface will still drive a period of Critical fire weather during the afternoon. Elsewhere within the High Plains, RH of around 20% should be more common. While 15-20 mph will occur in most locations, terrain-favored areas could see speeds of 20-25 mph. ...Edwards Plateau into parts of central Texas... As a modest surface low evolves south and east during the day, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. During the afternoon RH of around 15-20% can be expected. Lack of stronger winds will preclude a greater fire weather risk, but Elevated fire weather is probable. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains vicinity... Stronger mid-level flow across much of the central and parts of the southern Rockies will promote a deepening lee trough during the afternoon and evening today. A moderately strong pressure gradient across the terrain will drive 20-25 mph (locally higher) downslope winds across these regions. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10% in some locations with around 15% being more common. Continued lack of precipitation and dry fuels will support Critical fire weather in the lee of the terrain and as far east as the Texas South Plains. Farther south into the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend, lighter winds (15-20 mph) are expected, though locally stronger winds may occur within the Davis Mountains. Here, elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ...Northwest Texas...Oklahoma...Ozarks... Ahead of a surface cold front, southerly/southwesterly winds will increase to 15-20 mph. Winds within the lowest 2 km will also be strong and lead to gusty winds (up to around 35 mph). RH of 20-30% is possible by the afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to how low RH will fall given the expected mid/high level cloud cover increasing through the day. Even so, dry fine fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the US today. ...Discussion... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge encompassing the western half of the CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will impinge on the northern Rockies during the overnight hours. While the development of shallow buoyancy may promote low-topped convection ahead of the trough, lightning is not expected. ..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/24/2026Read more