SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late
week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the
western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend
and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will
facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the
shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event
across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days
3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the
Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level
trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the
Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday.
This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns  across the
majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer
term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer
and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day
6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under
a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial
distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through
this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for
this region in the longer term.

..Williams.. 01/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 01/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/

...ArkLaTex Region...
The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain
fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today.  A
surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and
eventually into MS.  The air mass ahead of the front is moderately
moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg.  This will result in
occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are
anticipated.

...South FL...
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf
and approach FL late tonight.  This will result in an increase in
the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after
midnight.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and
light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and
Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally
breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations
in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across
southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels
will limit a larger fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 01/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/

...Synopsis...
An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central
Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of
the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern
Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will
favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday
through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern
Great Plains Red River Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained
across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow
across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. 
Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may
begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri
Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the
leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across
the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern
Texas by late Friday night.

The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the
southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building
mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern
U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the
international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and
a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific. 

There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of
the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. 
However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing
low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow,
across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal
areas.

...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley...
Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen
appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric
thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by
late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing
cold air.  It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient
for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of
producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern
Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2026