Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast
period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale
troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several
other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft
and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will
reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely
suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable
future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf
Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week,
overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the
extended forecast period.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS
Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast
and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will
develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An
associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its
wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and
central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return
and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In
turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the
offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western
US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of
the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into
early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from
southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over
the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will
be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the
southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow
will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over
the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late
Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front
moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level
moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and
the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more
substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026