SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

The Elevated area was expanded slightly to the northwest in the
Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia and trimmed along the
eastern/southern edges based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated winds/RH are already
occurring in portions of the risk area as the forecast remains on
track. Please see the previous discussion for more details.

..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/

...Synopsis...
Diurnal heating amid a dry post-frontal air mass will result in
15-25 percent afternoon RH across parts of the Southeast. These dry
conditions combined with breezy/gusty northerly surface winds
(sustained around 15 mph) will result in elevated fire-weather
conditions across parts of southern GA and the western half of the
FL Peninsula during the afternoon, given dry/receptive fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.

...Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated
the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a
strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies.  Large-scale
height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will
result in marginal instability over TX and the development of
scattered thunderstorms later today.

Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX
this morning.  Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX
through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and
central TX this evening.  Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited
moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and
limit updraft strength/severe potential.  Nevertheless, the
strongest storms this evening could produce small hail.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025