Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that
at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore
of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast.  It remains a bit
uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and
an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern
California into the Southwest.  

Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is
possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the
remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave
impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying
southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic
Seaboard by the end of the period.  However, it now appears probable
that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic
circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern
international border.

In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early
next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface
troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies.  This may begin to more
substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in
advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the
digging mid-level troughing.  However, there is notable spread among
 the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near
and northeast of the Rockies.

Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday.  However,
inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air
overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting
factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong
destabilization.  

There remains at least some signal in the model output for
potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio
Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday.  However, with
uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe
probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 30 09:03:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 30 09:03:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms may impact parts of northern Florida and southern
Georgia Saturday with potential for some of this activity to become
severe.

...Discussion...
Within amplified ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific by
the outset of the period, models indicate that a mid-level high may
begin to form over the northeastern Pacific, roughly near 50N/140W,
while an evolving low to its south digs offshore of the California
coast.  Downstream flow is forecast to remain broadly confluent
across and east of the Rockies, with one notable short wave
perturbation pivoting east of the Ozark Plateau through the Mid
Atlantic coast by 12Z Sunday.  This likely will be preceded by a
shearing impulse, emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific
today, across the eastern Gulf Coast states through southern Mid
Atlantic by late Saturday afternoon.

In lower-levels, models indicate that these developments will be
accompanied significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the
Atlantic Seaboard.  It remains a bit unclear whether this will
initiate from a developing frontal wave initially offshore of the
Carolina coast, before migrating northeastward, or in association
with continuing development of a wave initially forming Friday
near/offshore of the lower to middle Texas coast.

Regardless, in association with the wave approaching from the Gulf,
a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears
possible across the Florida Big Bend vicinity through southern
Georgia/northern Florida Atlantic coastal areas by mid to late
Saturday afternoon.  Coinciding with strengthening southwesterly to
westerly wind fields, including 30-70+ kts in the 850-500 mb layer,
if this occurs, it is possible that the environment could become
conducive to severe thunderstorm development.  This may include
evolving supercell structures, and perhaps a small organizing
convective system.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western
Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast
evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period. 
Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through
Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis
west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a
larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S.
Rockies.  Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the
west of the U.S. Pacific coast.  At the same time, broad upper
ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific
toward Baja California.

Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across
and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels
across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley,
as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area
of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the
Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity.

A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by
12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough.  However, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance
suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a
developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas
coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday
afternoon through Friday night.

...Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle...
Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to

the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly
weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern
Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night.  Forecast soundings
continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to
support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity
to the surface front.  Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly
across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm
initiation to the south of the front.

Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this
period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the
evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization
along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain.  However, it still
appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for
ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell
development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday
afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday
evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening
into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.

...Southwest and South-central Texas...
At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon
into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward
across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will
increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting
scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into
south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a
quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening
forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large
hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a
closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying
upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and
amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast
region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the
southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief
to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions
across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns
where drought-stressed fuels exist. 

...Central Florida...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady
westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will
pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula.
In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud
cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon.
However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing
into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak
heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a
robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending
into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport
will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather
threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad
upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored
by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the
Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected
to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation
chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain.
Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm,
dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge
amid a very dry fuelscape. 

...Central Florida...
Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much
of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving,
quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and
northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary,
mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning
ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall,
and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could
further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an
Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10
mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought
stressed fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...