MD 0607 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282344Z - 290145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm will pose a risk of large
hail for a couple of hours over parts of southwest Texas.  A watch
is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An isolated intense thunderstorm has formed in Terrell
county TX, just east of Sanderson.  This cell formed along the
surface dryline in a very hot/moist and unstable air mass.  This
storm will likely persist for a couple of hours, tracking into Val
Verde county.  Left-splits from this cell could affect southern
Crockett county as well.  Very steep mid-level lapse rates, high
CAPE, and supercell structures will continue to pose a risk of large
hail over 2 inches and locally damaging wind gusts.  Coverage of
storms is expected to remain sparse, so a watch is not currently
anticipated.

..Hart/Mosier.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30370191 30600122 30170043 29790035 29610064 29530113
            29890192 30140208 30370191 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

MD 0606 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 170...177... FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Much of Arkansas...northwest Louisiana...Northeast
Texas...Southeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 170...177...

Valid 282252Z - 290045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 170, 177 continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will track into western
AR this evening, with coverage of other storms increasing toward
sunset.

DISCUSSION...Three distinct clusters of severe/supercell storms are
present this afternoon over OK/AR.  One is southeast of FYV, one
near FSM, and a third near IDA.  These storms will track eastward
for several more hours into a very moist and moderately unstable air
mass.  Forecast soundings and the LZK VAD profile suggest sufficient
low-level and deep-layer shear for continued supercell storm
structures and a risk of all severe modes.  The low-level jet is
expected to strengthen this evening around dusk, resulting in
increased coverage of storms, and increasing the risk of a few
tornadoes.

New tornado watch #177 has just been issued for this area until 06z.

..Hart.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34209505 35129443 35939393 36499289 36279228 34989251
            33629335 33059468 33289520 33739527 34209505 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0605 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 173... FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...central Mississippi into southern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 173...

Valid 282250Z - 290045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 173 continues.

SUMMARY...The convective environment remains favorable or severe
thunderstorms across central Mississippi into parts of southern
Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KDGX and KGWX shows
intensification of a supercell (including a notable three-body
scatter spike) north of the Jackson, MS area. Although this storm is
likely elevated based on the placement of an outflow boundary (noted
in surface observations), a recent 21 UTC sounding from JAN sampled
sufficient MUCAPE for robust convection, even when accounting for
near-storm conditions within the cold pool. This sounding also
sampled effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots,
which is highly favorable for organized convection. As demonstrated
by the recent trends in the supercell north of Jackson, MS, this
environment should continue to support intensification of ongoing
elevated storms and/or development of new convection over the next
several hours.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31298664 32198985 32369018 32699033 32999030 33259008
            33318974 33168900 32458644 32188613 31788602 31578621
            31378640 31298664 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0604 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 174... FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL


Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel

Concerning...Tornado Watch 174...

Valid 282226Z - 290000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 174 continues.

SUMMARY...A supercell migrating across far southeast Missouri and
northeast Arkansas may pose a locally higher severe threat over the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the MS Valley show a
stationary boundary/outflow draped across northern AR into KY. A
supercell with a history of producing severe hail and gusts up to 70
mph is approaching this boundary from the northwest along the
eastern MO/AR border. Although MRMS 50 dBz echo tops depict a recent
weakening trend with this storm, regional radar imagery has recently
begun to sample strengthening mid-level flow within the storm
(though precise feature identification is difficult given the
storm's distance from the nearest RDA). Further intensification
appears possible as the storm reaches the boundary where low-level
SRH is enhanced and a more moist/buoyant air mass resides on the
immediate warm side. This may support a localized corridor of higher
severe hail, wind, and tornado potential within the next 1-2 hours.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36058967 36099003 36279055 36439072 36639071 36759053
            36849028 36818940 36668909 36518911 36288919 36148941
            36058967 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 172 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 281830Z - 290200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Illinois
  Western Kentucky
  Eastern Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Mostly elevated storms, driven by strong instability
aloft, will continue to move east-northeastward into the region this
afternoon and early evening. Large hail will be the most common
hazard, with localized wind damage a possibility as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Vichy MO to 35 miles east southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...WW 171...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Guyer

WW 0172 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 172

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DYR
TO 25 SSE CGI TO 25 NNE PAH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604

..MOORE..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 172 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-290040-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CARLISLE            FULTON              
GRAVES               HICKMAN             MCCRACKEN           


MOC133-290040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MISSISSIPPI          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 173 TORNADO LA MS 281855Z - 290300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Louisiana
  Central and Southern Mississippi

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
across the region the remainder of the afternoon, which may include
a few supercells and evolving linear clusters.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles south of Greenville MS to 35
miles north northeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...WW
171...WW 172...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.

...Guyer

WW 0173 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 173

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605

..MOORE..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 173 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC065-083-290040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

MADISON              RICHLAND            


MSC007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-043-049-051-053-055-061-069-
075-079-083-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-127-129-133-
149-151-155-159-163-290040-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATTALA               BOLIVAR             CARROLL             
CHOCTAW              CLAIBORNE           CLARKE              
CLAY                 COPIAH              GRENADA             
HINDS                HOLMES              HUMPHREYS           
ISSAQUENA            JASPER              KEMPER              
LAUDERDALE           LEAKE               LEFLORE             
LOWNDES              MADISON             MONTGOMERY          
NESHOBA              NEWTON              NOXUBEE             
OKTIBBEHA            RANKIN              SCOTT

WW 175 SEVERE TSTM AL 282105Z - 290400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and southern Alabama

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A few supercells may occur near an effective boundary, but
other clusters of storms will likely spread into the region through
this evening, with damaging winds and periodic hail as the primary
hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Evergreen AL to 20 miles north northeast of Muscle Shoals AL. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...WW
171...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer

WW 0175 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 175

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605

..MOORE..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC007-013-023-025-033-035-039-041-047-057-059-063-065-075-077-
079-085-091-093-099-105-107-119-125-127-131-133-290040-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BUTLER              CHOCTAW             
CLARKE               COLBERT             CONECUH             
COVINGTON            CRENSHAW            DALLAS              
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GREENE              
HALE                 LAMAR               LAUDERDALE          
LAWRENCE             LOWNDES             MARENGO             
MARION               MONROE              PERRY               
PICKENS              SUMTER              TUSCALOOSA          
WALKER               WILCOX              WINSTON             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0177 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0177 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 177 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 282245Z - 290600Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Arkansas
  Northern Louisiana
  Far Southeast Oklahoma
  Northeast and East-Central Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 545
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across north TX, eastern OK and far
northwest AR are expected to continue southeastward into the moist
and unstable environment that extends from northeast TX through
northern LA and into much of AR. Environmental conditions will
support supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes and
very large hail, throughout much of the evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 75
miles south of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...WW
171...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...WW 175...WW 176...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Mosier

WW 0176 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 176 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 282225Z - 290600Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern Kentucky
  Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 525
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms approaching the region from the
west is expected to continue northeastward over the next several
hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within this line,
with damaging gusts as the primary risk. A low-probability risk for
a brief line-embedded tornado exists as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of
Clarksville TN to 25 miles southeast of London KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...WW
171...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...WW 175...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Mosier

WW 174 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 281930Z - 290300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Arkansas
  Far Southeast Missouri
  Northern Mississippi
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify and potentially become
more surface-based this afternoon within a moist/unstable
environment. This should include an increasing damaging wind/tornado
risk aside from large hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Dyersburg
TN to 40 miles south southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...WW
171...WW 172...WW 173...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.

...Guyer

WW 0174 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 174

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WEINMAN..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...MEG...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 174 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-282240-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLAY                 CRAIGHEAD           CRITTENDEN          
CROSS                GREENE              LEE                 
MISSISSIPPI          PHILLIPS            POINSETT            
ST. FRANCIS          


MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-282240-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN               BENTON              CALHOUN             
CHICKASAW            COAHOMA             DESOTO              
ITAWAMBA             LAFAYETTE           LEE                 
MARSHALL             MONROE              PANOLA              
PONTOTOC             PRENTISS            QUITMAN             
TALLAHATCHIE         TATE                TIPPAH              
TISHOMINGO           TUNICA              UNION               
YALOBUSHA

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will be a predominant feature across the
eastern U.S. through early next week. A gradually southward
progressing cold front and accompanying rainfall is expected across
much of the Deep South, Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic
where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain. This should have
an overall mitigating influence on fire weather concerns through the
weekend, with the exception of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, an
upper-level trough with accompanying ample Pacific moisture aloft
will intersect a cold front draped over the Southern Plains on Day
3-4/Thursday-Friday. This should support widespread wetting rains
and a reduced fire weather threat across much of the central and
southern High Plains. Upper-level ridging across the West will
promote a warming and drying trend through the weekend, with a dry
and breezy regime returning to the Desert Southwest and southern
Great Basin ahead of the next Pacific trough early next week.

...Day 3-5/Thursday-Saturday - Florida Peninsula...
Dry conditions including relative humidity at or below 35% and
breezy west winds are expected Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday with showers
and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary confined along
the northern Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. An upper-level wave
and deepening surface trough should bring increasing west/southwest
winds to FL on Day 5/Saturday. This could aid in bringing additional
boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into the state, although very
dry fuels and drought could still support wildfire spread. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into central FL for Days
3-5/Thursday-Saturday. Longer term forecast guidance shows
appreciable rainfall across the FL Peninsula on Day 6/Sunday as the
cold front finally shifts southeastward, bringing reprieve to a
preceding multi-day fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 04/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0171 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 171

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ABI TO
5 WSW GYI TO 20 NW MLC.

..WEINMAN..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 171 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC005-013-282240-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                BRYAN               


TXC059-085-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-221-223-231-237-
251-257-277-363-367-379-397-417-425-429-439-467-497-503-
282240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALLAHAN             COLLIN              COOKE               
DALLAS               DELTA               DENTON              
EASTLAND             ELLIS               ERATH               
FANNIN               GRAYSON             HOOD                
HOPKINS              HUNT                JACK                
JOHNSON              KAUFMAN             LAMAR               
PALO PINTO           PARKER              RAINS               
ROCKWALL             SHACKELFORD         SOMERVELL           
STEPHENS             TARRANT             VAN ZANDT           
WISE                 YOUNG

WW 171 TORNADO OK TX 281805Z - 290200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Oklahoma
  North Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter expected
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible

SUMMARY...Rapid development of intense storms/supercells is expected
through the afternoon, especially in vicinity of a surface triple
point and modifying outflow boundary. Given the extreme instability
and strong mid/high-level winds, these supercells will be capable of
very large hail, potentially in excess of baseball size. There will
also be some tornado potential, especially given the influence of
the aforementioned boundary, and some early evening increase in
low-level shear. Eventually, damaging wind potential may also
increase, including the possibility of destructive wind-driven hail
as storms progress east-southeastward.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 70 miles southwest of Wichita Falls
TX to 50 miles east southeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 169...WW 170...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

...Guyer

WW 170 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 281545Z - 290000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Arkansas
  Northern Louisiana
  Southeast Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1045 AM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The air mass across the region should quickly destabilize
as cloud-clearing occurs in the presence of a moist environment.
Large hail will be the most common concern initially, but damaging
wind and tornado potential are expected to steadily increase through
the afternoon regionally.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Paris TX to 45
miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...WW 169...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.

...Guyer

WW 0170 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 170

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WEINMAN..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-029-033-039-041-043-045-047-
051-053-057-059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-091-095-097-099-
103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-139-145-147-149-
282240-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS             ASHLEY              BRADLEY             
CALHOUN              CHICOT              CLARK               
CLEVELAND            COLUMBIA            CONWAY              
CRAWFORD             DALLAS              DESHA               
DREW                 FAULKNER            FRANKLIN            
GARLAND              GRANT               HEMPSTEAD           
HOT SPRING           HOWARD              JEFFERSON           
JOHNSON              LAFAYETTE           LINCOLN             
LITTLE RIVER         LOGAN               LONOKE              
MILLER               MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
NEVADA               OUACHITA            PERRY               
PIKE                 POLK                POPE                
PRAIRIE              PULASKI             SALINE              
SCOTT                SEBASTIAN           SEVIER              
UNION                WHITE               WOODRUFF            
YELL

WW 169 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 281515Z - 282300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Arkansas
  Southern Missouri
  Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1015 AM until
  600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms will continue to expand/increase
east-northeastward into this afternoon. Large hail will be the main
risk initially today, but surfaced-based storms, including damaging
wind potential, may increase later this afternoon, especially across
the Ozarks.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Muskogee OK to 25 miles east northeast of West Plains MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Guyer

WW 0169 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 169

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CQB TO
50 N JLN.

..WEINMAN..04/28/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC005-007-009-015-023-049-063-065-067-075-087-089-101-121-129-
135-137-141-143-282140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAXTER               BENTON              BOONE               
CARROLL              CLEBURNE            FULTON              
INDEPENDENCE         IZARD               JACKSON             
LAWRENCE             MADISON             MARION              
NEWTON               RANDOLPH            SEARCY              
SHARP                STONE               VAN BUREN           
WASHINGTON           


KSC021-037-282140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHEROKEE             CRAWFORD            


MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-109-
119-125-131-145-149-153-161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
were made with this update. Most noteworthy, the CIG2 (intensity
level 2/2) hail area was expanded northward into south-central OK,
where robust splitting supercells are evolving in an environment
characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and around 50 kt of effective
shear. These storms will continue to pose a risk of very large hail
through the afternoon. In north TX, a corridor of relatively higher
tornado potential is evident along a remnant outflow boundary --
where low-level shear is locally enhanced. Refer to Tornado Watch
171 and MCD 599 for more information.

..Weinman.. 04/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is
anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells
including very large hail potential along with some damaging
wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through
early/mid-evening.

First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress
east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at
late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development
seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis
and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the
possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated
severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from
northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the
Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a
surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer
warming.

Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable
airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and
near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is
beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in
mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense
surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple
point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon,
where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong
deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple
intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur
with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable
environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though
low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and
Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term
details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms
with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this
same region late today, or more so tonight.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Southwest...
A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of an embedded, low-amplitude
short wave within broader west-southwest flow will evolve across the
Southwest and Southern Plains Wednesday. Increasing upper cloud
cover within a Pacific moisture plume will have overspread the
region by Wednesday morning. This should inhibit RH recoveries west
of the NM central mountain chain, preconditioning an already dry
fuel environment for another dry and breezy day. Sustained west
winds of around 15 mph across portions of far eastern AZ into
western NM overlapping RH of 10% or less during the day, will
support an elevated fire weather threat Wednesday. Locally critical
fire weather conditions to include sustained winds of 20-25 mph are
possible mainly in the leeward slopes of more prominent mountain
ranges in southern NM. Farther east, a backdoor cold front will
bring considerable improvement in dewpoints and RH, lowering the
overall fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Some
slight modifications were made to the highlighted area based on
latest forecast guidance consensus.

...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
Increasing west winds south of a surface low moving into the
northeastern U.S. will emerge across portions of the Southeast
Wednesday. The steady west winds and residual dry boundary layer
with minimal Gulf moisture influence will overlap a dry and drought
stressed landscape. This will support elevated fire weather
conditions across portions of southern GA into northern FL where
west winds of around 10 mph, RH of 25-35% and receptive fuels align.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the FL
Panhandle and adjacent AL/GA border areas Wednesday afternoon, but
more widespread precipitation is not expected until Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. A slight southward extension into the FL
Peninsula was made to the existing elevated area based on latest
model guidance.

..Williams.. 04/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon.
Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on
Wednesday.

...Southwest...
Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface
troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ
into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to
previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less
than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where
delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is
expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally
less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern
FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely
along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire
weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast
guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and
rainfall amounts.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest and south-central Texas on Thursday.

...Southwest into central TX...
A mid/upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is
forecast to eject eastward as a shortwave across northern Mexico,
and approach Far West Texas late in the period. A belt of moderate
to strong midlevel westerlies will be maintained downstream of this
system across much of TX. Easterly post-frontal low-level flow will
maintain relatively favorable moisture across southwest TX, though
somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates (compared to previous days) may
limit MUCAPE to the 1000-2000 J/kg range. While weaker than previous
days, this buoyancy magnitude would still be conditionally favorable
for organized convection, given the presence of moderate to strong
deep-layer shear. 

Details of storm coverage and evolution through the period remain
uncertain. Relatively vigorous elevated convection could support
some isolated hail potential, especially if early-day storms can be
maintained through the day, or with any diurnal surface-based
development. Storm coverage will likely tend to increase by Thursday
night, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While
convective mode may quickly become complex late in the period, some
threat for hail or localized severe gusts could accompany the
strongest storms. Given the potential for one or more rounds of deep
convection within a relatively favorable environment, a Level
1/Marginal Risk has been included for southwest TX and vicinity.

..Dean.. 04/28/2026