
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Discussion... Embedded within a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon. Strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening of deep-layer lapse rates may yield weak and shallow buoyancy. However, thermodynamic profiles appear insufficient to support deep convection or lightning at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast remains unchanged. The lowest RH is expected to remain near the terrain/foothills in Colorado where downslope flow will be greatest. However, there may be a small zone in northeast Colorado along the fringe of lower RH that will observe a couple hours of critical conditions this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 01/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday. ...Central and southern High Plains... As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of 25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels. A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity, and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now. However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible. A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below 20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. ..Southeast... Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories. Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a cold front progresses southeastward. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/15/2026Read more