SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period.

...Synopsis...
The Marginal Risk across the Florida Peninsula has been removed with
this outlook. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
region but are expected to remain sub-severe with the loss of
daytime heating and thunderstorm activity becoming mainly
post-frontal. 

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening across
portions of the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Northern
Rockies. With weakly sheared profiles and marginal instability, no
severe storms are forecast.

..Thornton.. 05/03/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move onshore the West Coast on Day 3/Monday, then
transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day
4/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest
and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing
over the Mid-South on Day 5/Wednesday. This pattern will provide
additional precipitation to the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, likely resulting in above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to prevail through the forecast
period for much of western CONUS. 

Fire weather conditions reemerge for portions of the southern Plains
on Day 3/Monday as a deepening surface low tightens surface pressure
gradients across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Downslope
westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a
confined region of dry fuels, maintaining 40% Critical
probabilities. Due to recent precipitation, probabilities were
trimmed to exclude areas that received appreciable rainfall. Dry and
breezy conditions may persist for parts of the Southern Plains into
West Texas on Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday as southwesterly flow aloft
amplifies. However, guidance ambiguity in the placement of the upper
trough and timing of an approaching cold front precludes the
introduction of critical probabilities at this time. 

As the upper trough traverses the Mid-South, increasing
southwesterly flow and poor moisture return should promote dry and
breezy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Tuesday. However,
critical probabilities have been withheld due to recent appreciable
rainfall, marginal fuels, and expected moisture return overnight Day
4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...