
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas. ...Southwest and South-central Texas... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening. Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000 meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the area should be confined to a small area in southwest and south-central Texas. ..Broyles.. 05/01/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening surface low near the Carolina Coast will lead to dry and breezy conditions south of a cold front, increasing the fire weather threat across FL on Day 3/Saturday. The cold front and associated rainfall will finally advance southeastward over the weekend, providing a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front sweeping southeastward under broader northeasterly flow should bring stronger west-northwest winds and low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 4/Sunday and Southern High Plains Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday as upper low gradually shifts into the region. ...Day 3/Saturday... ...Florida... Stronger west winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward from the northern Gulf Coast will bring a fire weather threat to the FL Peninsula on Day 3/Saturday. RH reductions could be limited to 35% locally due to increasing cloud cover but fuels remain very receptive amid expanding drought where 40% critical probabilities remain. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level short wave will translate southeastward into the Northern Plains from the southern Canadian Prairies on Day 3/Saturday. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from a parent low across ND will sweep into the eastern MT and Dakotas. Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front combined with dry fuels could allow for heightened fire weather concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. 40% critical probabilities were introduced to account for this fire weather threat. ...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy conditions across the Southwest on Sunday, with downslope drying and enhanced winds evolving in the Southern High Plains Monday and Tuesday. However, preceding widespread rainfall in the tonight and Day 2/Friday time frame in addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern. ..Williams.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more