Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Progressive mid-level flow will continue over the US through next week. Strong westerly winds will continue to increase over the Rockies and Plains through this week and into the weekend. This will encourage westerly downslope flow and lee troughing late this week. By this weekend a more substantial trough should emerge and deepen over the southern US. Some potential for more active fire-weather conditions appears possible over southern TX through this weekend. The active toughing pattern should continue into next week. ...Southern High Plains D4/Thursday... With zonal flow increasing over parts of the southern Rockies mid to late week, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the southern High Plains. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a weak lee low D4/Thursday. South of the low, enhanced westerly downslope flow is expected from eastern NM into west TX. Bolstered by stronger westerly winds and deep mixing, afternoon gusts of 15-25 mph appear possible. The strong winds will likely overlap with a warm and dry air mass with relative humidity below 20%. With little recent rainfall in the area, the overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible before a cold front moves south into D5/Friday. A 40% area has been added for D4/Thursday. ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas D5/Friday-D7/Sunday... The more prominent upper trough over Baja CA and northern MEX will translate eastward D5/Friday into the weekend. Strong ascent will overspread the far Southern Plains into parts of South TX and the Rio Grande. A lee low will move off the MEX High Plateau supporting inland moisture advection over parts of south TX. Widespread precipitation (projected QPF in the 0.5-2 inch range) is expected to develop north of the surface low along a stalled front across portions of central TX into OK and the mid to lower MS Valley. This should largely limit fire-weather potential farther north. D6/Saturday, dry and breezy surface conditions may develop behind the departing low from the TX Big Bend to the Rio Grande Valley. Trailing the low, a Pacific Front will move east with much drier air mass behind it. Strong west/northwesterly flow on the backside of the low may mix down increasing surface winds to 20 mph. This could support the potential for fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday. However, model spread on the potential for precipitation, the frontal passage, and impacts to area fuels remains too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. By D7/Sunday, the upper trough and Surface low will move eastward. A temporarily cooler air mass will fill in, before southerly winds start to build again into next week. Strong troughing over the West should continue, spreading strong flow aloft over parts of the Southwest and Plains. This appears likely to support a general increase in fire-weather concerns with time through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Elizalde-Garcia.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
