
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most likely. ...Discussions... A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00 and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will likely gradually reduce storm strength. Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts. A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the strongly veering winds with height. ..Jewell.. 02/16/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of the Continental Divide early next week. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains... An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest. Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer mixing and drier fuels exist. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday, where a 70% critical area has been added. ...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains... An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day 5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical probabilities have been expanded. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft. ..Williams.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more