MD 0151 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA


Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into western Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 062236Z - 070230Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow bands will likely continue into the
early evening hours across northeast Colorado into parts of western
Nebraska. Snowfall rates may exceed 1 inch/hour under the more
persistent bands.

DISCUSSION...Transient snow bands have been evident in regional
radar mosaics over the past couple of hours across northeast CO  and
western NE. ASOS/AWOS observations under these bands have been
reporting visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times under the
heavier bands. Despite winds of 20-25 mph, blowing snow model output
suggests these visibility reductions are mainly attributable to
heavy snowfall rates given temperatures in the upper 20s/low 30s.

Heading into the evening hours, strong synoptic ascent within the
left-exit region of a passing upper jet coupled with more focused
frontogenetical lift between 850-700 mb will support a continuation
of at least transient heavy snow bands across northeast CO and into
parts of western NE for the next several hours. Although some areas
remain above freezing, an influx of colder air behind a passing cold
front should allow for temperatures through the lowest couple of
kilometers to fall below freezing and support moderate to heavy
snowfall rates later this evening. Based on recent observations and
latest model guidance, snowfall rates up to one inch/hour appear
likely under the heavier, more persistent snow bands.

..Moore.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42530228 42560160 42410125 42110098 41800093 41460099
            41230127 40930167 40650203 40030254 39520307 39180360
            39130393 39220427 39430456 39770464 40110455 40630436
            41130395 42210277 42530228

MD 0150 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI


Mesoscale Discussion 0150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas into western/central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062147Z - 070015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk should gradually increase over the next
few hours. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection is gradually deepening
within a zone of low-level warm advection over southwestern MO and
southeastern KS -- along the southeastern periphery of earlier
thunderstorm clusters. Here, boundary-layer dewpoints are increasing
into the lower 60s amid pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks.
While a low-level warm layer and related inhibition (evident in
earlier nearby soundings and forecast profiles) limits confidence in
thunderstorm evolution/maturation -- especially given weak
large-scale forcing for ascent -- the continued destabilization may
favor gradual intensification through the afternoon into this
evening. If thunderstorms can become surface-based, around 40-50 kt
of effective shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
would support supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. 

Given the uncertainty on timing/evolution of the severe risk in this
corridor, a watch is not expected in the near-term, though
convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37929582 38539555 39269474 39649414 39739362 39609309
            39309281 38809271 38019311 37219385 36939426 36929468
            37069564 37479583 37929582 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

Split upper-level flow will start out the extended period on Day
3/Sunday with a cutoff low over Baja California and a positively
tilted shortwave trough progressing east through the Great Lakes
region. By Day 4/Monday, upper-level flow becomes largely zonal
across northern portions of the CONUS. The aforementioned
upper-level low begins to move eastward, passing through the
southern Plains on Day 6/Wednesday in phase with another
strengthening shortwave trough progressing across the northern
Plains.

On Day 3/Sunday, a 40% area was introduced over portions of
northeast New Mexico and the west Texas Panhandle where afternoon
RHs are expected to drop to 8-15% coinciding with west-southwest
sustained winds at 15-25 mph. A 40% area was strongly considered for
portions of the northern High Plains, especially near the Black
Hills where the lowest afternoon RHs of 15-25% would combine with
the strongest westerly sustained winds of 15-25 mph. However, given
recent and ongoing precipitation, including snow, over these areas
on Day 1/Friday and forecast uncertainty, probabilities were not
introduced. 

Weaker flow on Day 4/Monday over the Southwest and adjacent southern
High Plains is likely to present sub-Elevated fire weather
conditions. Thus, the decision was made to not include any marginal
probabilities with this issuance. Future outlooks will reconsider
this potential as forecast guidance evolves.

The aforementioned cutoff low begins to move eastward through the
Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 5/Tuesday and Day
6/Wednesday likely bringing precipitation to portions of the region.
While there are likely to be differences in the exact placement and
track of any precipitation, it does appear that some relief could be
headed for portions of these areas of recent concern.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0016 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0016 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 16 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 062115Z - 070400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Iowa
  Central and Northeast Kansas
  Northwest Missouri
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop near a
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front, with additional development
possible into this evening ahead of it. All aspects of severe
weather are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and
tornado potential.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Russell
KS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.

...Guyer

WW 0015 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0015 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 15 TORNADO OK TX 062045Z - 070400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 15
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Oklahoma
  North Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including supercells are expected to
develop through mid/late afternoon across the region, with the most
intense storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado
risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Bartlesville OK
to 25 miles southeast of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.

...Guyer

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...20z Update...
No categorical changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook.

A corridor of more favorable tornado potential is possible this
evening near the interface of the surface low and warm front across
far southeastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. Here,
within the warm sector cells may develop ahead of the cold front
within an region of enhanced low-level shear (given the placement of
the warm front and forecast increase in south-southwesterly
low-level jet). There are some complicating factors, such as ongoing
cloud cover and convection in the warm air advection regime this
morning. Some sheltered heating is ongoing with breaks in the cloud
cover, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg nosing in from the west. The 18z
soundings from Lamont, OK and Topeka, KS show this trend in
instability as well as enlarged/curved hodographs and strong 50 kt
flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict further enlargement of
low-level hodographs this evening, amid steep lapse rates and dew
points in the low to mid 60s, and STP values around 2. Given the
favorable parameter space, tornado probabilities were increased with
this outlook.

Otherwise, the Enhanced remains unchanged. See previous discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/

...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of
the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with
upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon.
Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will
support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into
Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although
such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover
across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast
Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the
surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support
organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This
activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly
quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind
damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as
convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at
least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into
early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan
if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is
forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these
areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong
tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level
shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level
jet.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning
across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating
the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved
short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation
along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a
bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will
be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the
region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day
storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible
into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more
likely to its east potentially related to differential
heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.

Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe
and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm
development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold
front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging
winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the
period.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made to the Day 2/Saturday Outlook. While elevated
criteria is close to being met over portions of the northern High
Plains, cold conditions Day 1/Friday behind the cold front will
mitigate any fire weather threat over that area in the short term.
However, above normal temperatures combined with dry and breezy
conditions Day 2/Saturday will precondition fuels ahead of a
potential fire weather threat on Day 3/Sunday.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow will split on D2/Saturday, with a mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the central Great
Plains and Great Lakes regions while a closed upper-low retrogrades
southwestward across portions of the Southwest, eventually settling
off the coast of northern Baja California. At the surface,
moderately strong high pressure will build into the Great Basin,
with a low pressure center settling over Baja California. Meanwhile,
a second surface low will progress northeastward from the northern
Great Lakes across southeastern Canada, with an attendant cold front
moving southeastward across the eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying this front are
expected to limit fire weather concerns at this time.

...Portions of Southern California...
Aided by strong northeasterly mid-level flow aloft, the placement of
the aforementioned surface features across the West will contribute
to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over portions of
Southern California. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20-25
mph (with gusts as high as 35-45 mph in favored coastal/terrain
areas) are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-20%; however,
unreceptive fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS
TO SOUTHEAST VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave impulse will quickly progress east from the Saint
Lawrence Valley, as a backside shortwave trough rapidly moves from
the Upper Great Lakes across New England by Sunday night. Surface
front trailing southwest from the lead impulse will push off the
coastal Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon, with frontolysis occurring
over the Southeast during the evening/night.  

...Carolinas and southeast VA...
The northern extent of the surface-based warm sector should overlap
the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies atop the trailing
cold front. Guidance consensus suggests weak buoyancy should develop
by midday/early afternoon across the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain and adjacent Piedmont. Both the 12Z NAM and ECMWF depict
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may be present near the
mid-level jetlet across VA. Bulk of guidance indicates isolated to
scattered storm development off the Piedmont to coastal plain
through the afternoon into early evening, before convergence along
the front wanes. While low-level shear should be weak, favorable mid
to upper-level speed shear could support a few cells with transient
mid-level rotation. Isolated severe storms with marginal hail/wind
magnitudes seem plausible. This scenario is supported by at least 5
percent total severe probs in the 12Z SPC-GEFS, along with the 00Z
NSSL-GEFS and both NCAR-ECENS ML products.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026