WW 4 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 251650Z - 260000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Alabama
  Western Florida Panhandle
  Southwest Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1050 AM until
  600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a cold front over
western Alabama.  This activity will spread eastward through the
afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
either side of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL
to 25 miles north northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.

...Hart

WW 0004 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 4

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CEW TO
25 SSW CSG.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060.

..GRAMS..01/25/26

ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-252040-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBOUR              COFFEE              DALE                
GENEVA               HENRY               HOUSTON             


FLC005-013-059-063-091-131-133-252040-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY                  CALHOUN             HOLMES              
JACKSON              OKALOOSA            WALTON              
WASHINGTON           


GAC007-037-053-061-071-081-087-095-099-131-177-197-201-205-239-
243-249-253-259-261-273-277-287-307-321-252040-

GA

MD 0060 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA...SOUTHEAST AL


Mesoscale Discussion 0060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Areas affected...the FL Panhandle...southwest GA...southeast AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...

Valid 251832Z - 252000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and potential for a few tornadoes
should persist into late afternoon with a QLCS progressing eastward.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped QLCS has been quickly moving east along a
cold front sweeping through southeast AL to the far western FL
Panhandle. Pre-frontal convection has remained linear as well, with
an upcoming merger of the two lines over far southeast AL shortly.
Surface winds have consistently veered just ahead of the front,
reducing low-level SRH to an extent. But the presence of a confined
corridor of mid 70s surface temperatures from the central FL
Panhandle into extreme southeast AL may support deepening convection
into mid-afternoon, centered on the Chattahoochee Valley. Overall
severe threat will become more spatially limited towards late
afternoon as the QLCS likely outpaces the northeast extent of the
surface-based instability plume.

..Grams.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32498551 32378494 32148440 31508387 30898412 30048515
            30188665 30378759 30858709 31828603 32498551 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MD 0059 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA


Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina...and
parts of western North Carolina

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 251757Z - 252200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy freezing rain is expected between 19Z and 23Z this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Persistent cold air damming persists in the lee of the
Appalachians and into northern Georgia. An expansive area of
stratiform rain will overspread this cold air this afternoon and
result in moderate to heavy freezing rain.

Heavy precipitation rates will likely warm temperatures a few
degrees which may limit freezing rain efficiency in areas that are
currently 31-32F. However, where temperatures are currently in the
20s, northeast of Atlanta and eastward, expect below freezing
temperatures to persist within the wedge. Additionally, a meso-low,
analyzed on the 17Z surface chart in east-central Alabama, will move
east into central Georgia which will alleviate any chance for
erosion of the cold wedge and perhaps reinforce the westerly flow
across northern Georgia. 

As a result, moderate to heavy precipitation with temperatures in
the mid to upper 20s will result in significant ice accumulation
between 19Z and 23Z from northeast Georgia into western South
Carolina and into portions of southeast North Carolina. Given the
expectation for relatively efficient ice accretion and QPF of 0.5 to
0.7 inches, expect another 0.25" to 0.5" of ice accretion this
afternoon and early evening.

..Bentley.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34068403 34228423 34348429 34578412 34968313 35198233
            35838150 35158082 33798187 33568258 33638358 34068403

MD 0058 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.


Mesoscale Discussion 0058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania...southern New
York...northern New Jersey...Connecticut...Rhode Island...and
southern Massachusetts.

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 251655Z - 252100Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall is expected through the afternoon with
rates up to 2 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is already ongoing across
Pennsylvania and New Jersey this morning. This heavy snow will shift
northeast through the afternoon. In addition, very heavy rates are
expected to develop across far southeast New York, Connecticut, and
Rhode Island. In this region, very strong 700mb frontogenesis is
forecast between 18Z and 21Z amid strong isentropic ascent. 

In addition, amid strong warm-air advection, the transition zone
from snow to sleet is moving rapidly north across eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey (as sampled by KDOX Correlation
Coefficient). Expect this transition zone to continue to advect
north during the early afternoon before stalling near the
Connecticut shore by mid-afternoon.

..Bentley.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40547360 40457485 40387616 40537855 40897905 41537880
            42327785 42587441 42457181 42037085 41367074 40587296
            40547360

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be
maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and
stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development
is unlikely.

..Wendt.. 01/25/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest will shift eastward and
phase with the broader synoptic trough within the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This will push a reinforcing
surface high pressure system southward into the southern
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley regions. A cold front will also
continue to sag southward in the Florida Peninsula. South of the
front, modest buoyancy will remain. Even so, forcing for ascent will
become increasingly removed from the region and thunderstorm
development does not appear likely. Elsewhere, cold air/offshore
trajectories will similarly prohibit thunderstorms.

..Wendt.. 01/25/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire
weather concerns across CONUS. A dry, post frontal air mass has
infiltrated into much of the Desert Southwest, resulting in relative
humidity falling into the 10-15 percent range this afternoon across
the lower CO River Basin. However, a weakening surface pressure
gradient and reduced northerly winds through the day along with
marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of highlights.

..Williams.. 01/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread
precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will
continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an
arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast
and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels
across the Southern Plains.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the
main concerns.

...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR.  This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states.  This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA.  Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms.  Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS.  Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern.  Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/25/2026