SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes,
hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the
middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into
early evening.

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level flow regime, characterized by multiple
low-amplitudes perturbations and strong west/southwesterly flow
aloft is expected over the CONUS Day2/Thursday. The primary
shortwave trough will move from the southern Rockies/Plains into the
Midwest by 00z, assuming a slight negative tilt as multiple weaker
preceding subtropical perturbation are absorbed. Strong ascent
associated with the trough a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will
deepen a surface low over the eastern Plains, reaching the Great
Lakes by early Friday.

...Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...
As the upper trough and surface low approach the Mid MS Valley early
Thursday, rapid low-level moistening is expected across parts of
eastern MO western IL and the lower OH Valley. While moisture
content is seasonably limited (surface dewpoints in the 50s to near
60 F), cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the preceding
subtropical shortwave trough will support some destabilization
Thursday afternoon.

While instability will remain modest owing to limited boundary-layer
moisture, clearing ahead of a surging dryline tied to the surface
low  will allow for diurnal heating. In combination with steepening
mid-level lapse rates, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is exacted by
early afternoon. An arc of mainly cellular convection should develop
by mid afternoon across far eastern MO and western to south-central
IL and move quickly eastward. Amid very strong kinematic fields
(EBWD 55+ kt) a supercell mode is expected. Strong low-level shear
and the concentration of buoyancy in the lowest few km will favor
strong vertical accelerations and stretching with seasonably cool
mid-level temperatures. Hail is likely with the stronger rotating
storms. Additionally, with backed low-level flow near the low/warm
front and large low-level shear, (0-1 km BWD 25+ kt) a few tornadoes
are possible.

As ascent spreads eastward, thunderstorm activity may eventually
grow upscale enough to support increasing potential for damaging
wind gusts given the strong background flow. However, decreasing
buoyancy and weakening height falls with eastward extent should
gradually limit convective intensity into parts of the middle OH
Valley late Thursday evening.

..Lyons.. 02/18/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

...Southern and Central High Plains...
An expansive area of Critical fire weather conditions are still
expected today across much of eastern CO, into portions of the
Southern Plains and southeast NM. An 80-90 kt mid-level jet on the
southern fringe of an approaching short wave, along with deepening
lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support a
favorable dry downslope regime across the region. A broad area of
southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph along with afternoon relative
humidity of 10-15 percent will yield high-end Critical fire weather
conditions across much of the southern High Plains including
portions of eastern CO and southeastern NM. Sporadic Extremely
Critical conditions including 30+ mph southwest winds and single
digit relative humidity are most likely across portions of southeast
NM, although overall fuelscape remains only moderately receptive
with ERC percentiles near to below normal. Less volatile but still
Elevated fire weather conditions extend eastward into central TX, OK
and KS where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity of
15-20 percent align through the afternoon.

...Portions of the Midwest...
Breezy west winds south of a surface low across along with
anomalously dry boundary layer conditions will support a swath of
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the
Midwest today. West winds of 15-25 mph combined with relative
humidity as low as 15 percent will align from far northeastern NE to
much of IA into northwestern IL. Dry fuels combined with these
Critical meteorological conditions will support wildfire spread over
a region where considerable precipitation deficits have been
observed.

..Williams.. 02/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/

...Synopsis...
Two mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in a broader low-amplitude
upper troughing pattern, will traverse the central CONUS today. One
trough will overspread the Great Lakes as a surface low gradually
weakens along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. The second mid-level
trough will eject into the southern Plains by afternoon, accompanied
by an 80-90 kt 500 mb jet streak. As a result, gradient flow
associated with the surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley,
as well as dry downslope flow east of the southern Rockies, will
encourage appreciable wildfire spread potential over portions of the
Midwest and southern High Plains, respectively.

...Southern High Plains...
As downslope flow peaks in intensity by mid to late afternoon,
widespread 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds, with higher
gusts, will overlap with 10-15 percent RH (perhaps lower in some
locales). The best chance for these conditions will be over
northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and immediate
surrounding areas. Given very receptive fuels, high-end Critical
conditions, supporting dangerous/rapid wildfire-spread potential,
are expected. While Extremely Critical conditions are not expected
to be widespread like the yesterday, spotty Extremely Critical
conditions may be observed. Otherwise, 15-20 percent RH will overlap
with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds for several hours
across much of the southern High Plains, warranting broad
Elevated/Critical highlights.

...Portions of the Midwest...
Before the surface low undergoes significant weakening, strong
gradient flow will persist during the afternoon, when boundary-layer
mixing will support a belt of overlapping 25 mph sustained westerly
surface winds and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. These
conditions will most likely be observed over central Iowa and
immediate surrounding areas. Such conditions are high-end Critical
for the Midwest, especially when considering that yesterday's
precipitation has not yielded meaningful accumulations, which have
also been lacking in the past few weeks. Rapid, dangerous wildfire
spread is possible wherever dry fuel beds exist, and a sparse
instance of Extremely Critical conditions cannot be ruled out.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with
numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that
covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently
maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone
expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist
farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the
southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently
dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded
by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA
Coast. 

All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better
low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central
Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe
potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several
areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central
Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the
West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the
coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely
occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West
Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move
through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south
in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon
from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max
currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but
lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level
moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the
vorticity max moves through.

Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level
airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN
and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 02/18/2026