Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into southern California. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the base of the trough. To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA, but severe weather is not expected. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2026Read more