
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Gulf Coast... A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late tonight. Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless, transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for more details). Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. ...Coastal Carolinas... A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2025Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 2242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Areas affected...Northeast OK...western/central AR...far southwest
MO
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 011237Z - 011700Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain may increase across parts of central
Arkansas this morning, while light mixed precipitation will continue
to spread from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far
southwest Missouri.
DISCUSSION...Mixed precipitation (mainly in the form of shallow
convective showers) has been spreading east-northeastward across
central/eastern OK this morning. The 00Z OUN, 06Z LMN, and 12Z FWD
soundings, along with recent objective mesoanalyses, suggest that a
temperature inversion above 700 mb is limiting the depth of the
convective showers, while dryness below 800 mb initially limited
precipitation rates. However, the regenerative nature of this
precipitation has resulted in evaporative moistening and cooling of
the column, allowing for at least light accumulations of
precipitation at the ground. Some icing has been noted in the OKC
area, and light ice accretion and/or sleet accumulation may spread
east-northeastward from northeast OK into northwest AR and far
southwest MO. Some snow may mix with the precipitation in this area,
though with the primary ascent and saturation occurring generally
below the dendritic growth zone, a tendency toward sleet or freezing
rain may persist in these areas as well.
Farther south, stronger buoyancy (as observed in the 12Z FWD
sounding with MUCAPE above 100 J/kg) may support somewhat heavier
precipitation rates from southwest into central AR later this
morning, within a persistent low-level warm-advection regime. While
low-level temperatures are more marginal compared to areas farther
north, evaporative cooling and relatively dry/cold surface
trajectories from the northeast may allow for some ice accretion,
especially on elevated surfaces. A transition to primarily rain may
occur from southwest to northeast by late morning, due to continued
warm advection and muted diurnal heating.
..Dean.. 12/01/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35399566 35989597 36629598 36859458 36509267 35449188
34449201 33789247 33749316 34059431 34529443 35189452
35399566
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving eastward through the Four Corners vicinity, within the base of a larger upper trough that extends from the Upper MS Valley through AZ. This shortwave is forecast to pivot eastward and then northeastward throughout the period, moving across the southern/central High Plains, OK/KS, and the Mid-South before ending the period over the upper OH Valley. A strong mid-level jetlet (i.e. 90 kt at 500-mb) is anticipated within the base of this shortwave, with a more expansive strengthening of the mid-level southwesterly flow anticipated across much of area preceding the wave (i.e. from the mid/lower MS Valley into much of the eastern CONUS). Even with the strengthening wind fields aloft and large-scale ascent attendant to this deepening wave, the limited time since the previous frontal intrusion will keep any low-level moisture return confined largely to the immediate Gulf Coast. Even so, a few elevated thunderstorms are possible from this morning into the afternoon across the TX Gulf Coast, with much of this activity supported by ascent and warm-air advection attendant to a more subtle, lower-amplitude shortwave currently moving into south TX. Phasing of this lower-amplitude shortwave with the stronger shortwave farther north will support a more expansive strengthening of the low-level south-southwesterly flow late in the period. This phasing will also contribute to a deepening of a surface low progressing northeastward along a warm front moving northward into the FL Panhandle. Some severe potential is possible late tonight into early tomorrow as this surface low interacts with an increasingly moist and buoyant airmass over the FL Panhandle. ...Coastal AL and FL Panhandle... Most guidance brings mid 60s dewpoints into immediate coastal region of AL and the FL Panhandle during the last 4 hours of the period (08Z-12Z Tuesday), just ahead of the surface low. This increasing low-level moisture should erode any low-level convective inhibition and result in an airmass supportive of surface-based thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but still sufficient, for deep updrafts, amid veering low-level wind profiles and robust mid-level flow. As a result, a few supercells could be maintained or develop as the warm sector convection moves ashore from coastal AL across the FL Panhandle. Primary risks with these storms are a brief tornado and/or localized damaging gusts over the immediate coast. This threat will continue past 12Z Tuesday into northern FL, which is discussed in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ...Coastal Carolinas... Strengthening low-level flow will contribute to increasing warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early Tuesday. Consensus within the guidance keeps the higher low-level moisture just offshore, and the majority of this activity will be elevated atop a strong low-level inversion. This should temper the overall severe potential. Immediate coastal regions south of MHX may see higher dewpoints right at the end of the period, but any stronger storms are still expected to remain offshore. ..Mosier/Dean.. 12/01/2025Read more