Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z A surface front is oriented generally southeast to northwest from western Oklahoma through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to along/near the Front Range. No changes were made to the outlook, but there is some uncertainty regarding elevated conditions developing in north-northeastern portions of the Elevated area due to the frontal position and expected southwest movement of it later today and tonight. Additionally, locally elevated conditions may extend through east/southeast portions of the Texas Panhandle. Please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today. At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains this afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon. Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon. Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours, with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds accompanying the frontal passage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
