MD 0507 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 134... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA


Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into far northern Missouri and
central Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...

Valid 232204Z - 240000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will spread east over
the next 2-4 hours into central Iowa and far northern Missouri.
Trends will be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Across western IA, a convective band is showing signs
of intensification with a low to mid-level wind surge noted within
portions of the line - possibly the early stages of a rear inflow
jet. Downstream of this band, mid-level lapse rates remain fairly
steep (around 8 C/km), which may contribute to some intensification
of the line and an increasing wind threat downstream into central IA
over the coming hours. 

Further south, a supercell with a history of producing severe hail
continues to show signs of intensification with an established
mesocyclone now apparent in KOAX velocity data. This cell will
continue to pose a threat for severe hail as well as tornadoes
(including the potential for a strong tornado) as it moves
downstream into southwest IA/northwest MO over the next 1-2 hours.
Continued clustering and upscale growth along the front may limit
the tornado and hail potential beyond the 23-00 UTC time frame.

Later this evening, a weakening trend is anticipated as convection
migrates into a region with stronger capping and diminishing
deep-layer wind shear. However, some severe threat will likely
persist beyond 00 UTC across central, and perhaps portions of
eastern, IA. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated in the coming
hours as this activity approaches the eastern bounds of WW 134.

..Moore.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   40269647 40879575 41849511 42619486 43189447 43439351
            43449256 43319235 43029223 42599227 41989248 41429276
            40959311 40489351 40269406 40159475 40169583 40129617
            40269647 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0505 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 136... FOR CENTRAL KS


Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...central KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 136...

Valid 232026Z - 232230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 136 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of increasing severe potential is expected
across central KS over the 2-3 hours. Very large hail to 3.5 inches
and tornadoes possible.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convection is noted along and just east of a
surface boundary from Geary County west/southwest toward McPherson
and Reno Counties in central/east-central KS. This convection is
developing within 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, very steep midlevel lapse rates,
and 40 kt effective shear magnitudes. This should support robust
updrafts that organize quickly. In fact, 19z WoFS data show a swath
of 2.5-3.5 inch hail potential within this corridor through 23z.
This corridor appears most favorable very large hail and tornado
potential in the short term (2-3 hours).

..Leitman.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38719771 39179735 39429702 39509654 39409628 39189615
            38699628 38279647 37899681 37729711 37609738 37669775
            37919800 38269794 38719771 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

MD 0504 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX


Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...central OK into western North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 232002Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected across north-central OK
this evening. Further south, from central OK into western North TX,
a more conditional risk is expected. A tornado watch may be needed
for portions of OK into western north TX in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the region has resulted in
warming into the low/mid 80s to the east of the dryline, with low
90s noted just west of the dryline, which is oriented from northwest
OK into western north TX. East of the dryline, low-level moistening
is resulting in surface dewpoints in the 64-68 F range. Midlevel
lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km per SPC Mesoanalysis and 18z LMN
RAOB are contributing to strong instability across the warm sector
(near 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Within this environment, supercell
wind profiles will support severe storms capable of very large hail,
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. This is most likely across
north-central OK this evening.

A more conditional severe/tornado risk exists from central OK into
western north TX. Weak capping across this area and more modest
large-scale ascent may preclude thunderstorm development. However,
modified forecast soundings based on current observations suggest
convective temperatures will be reached. Furthermore, developing
cumulus along the dryline suggests deeper dryline circulations may
further erode capping. While high resolution forecast guidance/CAMs
have varied throughout the day, most have suggested at least one or
two attempts at convective initiation anywhere from near the Red
River toward central OK in the 22-02z time frame. While this risk is
conditional, the environment will be very supportive for very large
hail, a tornado or two, and severe gusts. 

Trends will be monitored, and a tornado watch may be needed for
portions of OK in the next few hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33459856 33579892 33849905 34569901 35549862 36469827
            36959802 37009774 36979695 36929683 36339671 35749673
            35429678 35319681 34149729 33729757 33469807 33479826
            33459856 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

WW 0137 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0137 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 137 TORNADO OK 232210Z - 240400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central Oklahoma

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop in north-central
Oklahoma along a dryline/cold front.  Other isolated storms may
develop this evening farther south along the dryline into southwest
Oklahoma.  Supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes
are possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Ponca City OK to 25
miles east of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 134...WW 135...WW 136...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Hart

WW 136 TORNADO KS 231905Z - 240200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Kansas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense storm development is expected initially across
parts of northern/east-central Kansas through late afternoon,
becoming more scattered/widespread into this evening across the
remainder of eastern Kansas. All severe hazards are expected,
including tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast of Manhattan
KS to 45 miles south southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 134...WW 135...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Guyer

WW 0136 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 136

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W SLN TO
10 E CNK TO 10 WSW BIE.

..JEWELL..04/23/26

ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 136 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC001-003-013-015-017-019-027-031-035-041-045-049-059-061-073-
077-079-085-087-095-111-113-115-117-127-131-139-149-155-161-169-
173-177-191-197-201-205-207-232240-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                ANDERSON            BROWN               
BUTLER               CHASE               CHAUTAUQUA          
CLAY                 COFFEY              COWLEY              
DICKINSON            DOUGLAS             ELK                 
FRANKLIN             GEARY               GREENWOOD           
HARPER               HARVEY              JACKSON             
JEFFERSON            KINGMAN             LYON                
MCPHERSON            MARION              MARSHALL            
MORRIS               NEMAHA              OSAGE               
POTTAWATOMIE         RENO                RILEY               
SALINE               SEDGWICK            SHAWNEE             
SUMNER               WABAUNSEE           WASHINGTON          
WILSON               WOODSON             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
Canada border through Day 4/Sunday. An upper ridge over the eastern
U.S. will break down as a mid-level shortwave approaches on Day
3/Saturday and widespread precipitation chances return, bringing
much needed relief to exceptionally dry fuels across the Piedmont
and Southeast. A secondary shortwave trough will move into the
Southwest on Day 4/Sunday with increasing southwest flow aloft,
inducing lee cyclogenesis over the central Plains. This pattern
change will bring widespread chances for precipitation across
portions of the High Plains into the Upper Midwest and Mid-South
through Day 6/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see appreciable
rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger. Towards the
end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude trough is
forecast to approach the southwestern U.S. Given the overall
pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels remain
receptive.

...Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday - Southern Plains into portions
of the Southwest...
As upper troughing persists across the north-central U.S., strong
zonal flow over the Southwest will encourage very breezy and
continued dry conditions on Day 3/Saturday. With preceding days of
Critical fire weather conditions, westerly downslope flow of 15-20
mph and 10-15 percent RH atop dry fuels will further exacerbate the
fire environment, supportive of 40% Critical probabilities on Day
3/Saturday. A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over
the High Plains on Day 4/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over
portions of eastern CO and western KS. Behind an emerging dryline,
westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained to encompass the
expansive fire weather threat. 

As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
will persist over the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
Breezy conditions may emerge in advance of an approaching upper
trough later in the forecast period, albeit model guidance varies in
the timing and strength of the overall upper pattern. Thus, guidance
ambiguity precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0245 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening from the southern through central Plains and Minnesota into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley.
Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...
The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over
southern BC/AB and a northeastward moving trough over the western
Dakotas will lead to the formation of a deep closed low over
southern SK.  An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken
across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves
across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK.  Low-level moisture will spread
northward across IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the
northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer.  Surface heating and the
degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into
MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs
structures (stronger low-level shear lingering across IA).  Mixed
convective modes are expected along and ahead of the front this
afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon
through late evening from eastern KS into northern OK, near and just
northeast of a cold front/dryline triple point and weak secondary
cyclone.  A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will progress
eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent in the
left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point near or
just north of the KS/OK border.  An influx of mid 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective inhibition
across KS by mid afternoon.

Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid
afternoon, with storms expected to develop southward to near the
triple point.  The large buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and
deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very large
hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms.
 The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level
shear/hodograph curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there
will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern supercells
near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool
development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional
wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads
southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.

...OK dryline this evening...
Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this
afternoon/evening.  Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of
surface heating/mixing along the dryline and residence time in the
dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep convection.  If
storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large
hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat
with any sustained storm.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

WW 0134 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 134

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW LNK
TO 30 SW TQE TO 10 ENE OTG.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503

..LYONS..04/23/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 134 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC001-003-009-021-025-027-029-035-041-047-059-063-071-073-077-
081-085-091-093-109-129-133-137-141-143-145-147-151-155-159-161-
165-173-175-187-189-193-197-232040-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ADAMS               AUDUBON             
BUENA VISTA          CALHOUN             CARROLL             
CASS                 CHEROKEE            CLAY                
CRAWFORD             DICKINSON           EMMET               
FREMONT              GREENE              GUTHRIE             
HANCOCK              HARRISON            HUMBOLDT            
IDA                  KOSSUTH             MILLS               
MONONA               MONTGOMERY          O'BRIEN             
OSCEOLA              PAGE                PALO ALTO           
POCAHONTAS           POTTAWATTAMIE       RINGGOLD            
SAC                  SHELBY              TAYLOR              
UNION                WEBSTER             WINNEBAGO           
WOODBURY             WRIGHT              


MOC003-005-087-147-232040-

WW 134 TORNADO IA MO NE 231700Z - 240000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Iowa
  Northwest Missouri
  Eastern Nebraska

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from NOON until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and steadily
increase in coverage and intensity through early/mid-afternoon, with
all severe weather hazards.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA
to 30 miles west of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Guyer

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma
and Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. These storms will
pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across
portions of Texas.

...Synopsis...
Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread parts of the
southern and central Plains on Saturday, as the midlevel pattern
responds to a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into
the Southwest. This will induce strong southerly winds across the
Plains, helping to draw an outflow-influenced frontal boundary
northward. This boundary is currently forecast to be oriented from
northwest to southeast across portions of Oklahoma by late Saturday.

...Parts of KS/OK/TX into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley...
No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk. Rich moisture, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and diurnal heating will result in strong
destabilization across parts of the southern Plains, with at least
moderate destabilization into parts of KS. Large-scale ascent will
be subtle at best during the day, but isolated storm development
will be possible by late afternoon in the vicinity of the diffuse
warm front extending from eastern OK into southern KS and vicinity.
Favorable deep-layer shear combined with the moderate to strong
buoyancy will favor initial supercell development, with a threat of
very large hail and potentially a couple tornadoes (especially near
the remnant boundary). 

Some upscale growth will be possible into the evening, with
potential for an organized cluster or MCS to move southeastward
along the instability gradient towards parts of the ArkLaTex, and
potentially the lower MS Valley, before weakening. This evolution
could be accompanied by an increasing damaging-wind threat, along
with isolated hail and/or tornado potential with any embedded
supercells. 

Farther south, a conditionally favorable environment will be in
place during the afternoon along/east of the effective dryline, from
southwest OK into TX. Despite the lack of notable large-scale
ascent, isolated storms may develop due to weakening CINH and
heating to convective temperatures. Any storms that can mature
within this environment could evolve into supercells with large to
very large hail potential. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
southwestward across TX, where some global and extended CAM guidance
shows a signal for sustained development during the late afternoon.

..Dean.. 04/23/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF COLORADO FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...Afternoon Update...
Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced to portions of
the CO Rockies and adjacent High Plains where forecast guidance has
trended towards increased probabilities of very low RH and strong
winds. Beneath the upper trough, a surface low will emerge over
eastern CO promoting westerly downslope winds along the Front Range
and southwesterly winds over eastern CO. Deeper mixing will
encourage sustained winds of 15-25 mph and critically low RH of
10-15 percent (locally below 10 percent) at peak heating,
overlapping very dry fuels in a region where multiple preceding days
of critical fire weather conditions have further exacerbated the
fire environment. Elevated highlights have been expanded further
west to encompass the Four Corners into northwestern CO where
westerly winds of 15-20 mph and less than 20 percent RH will overlap
ERCs approaching the 75th-90th percentile.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Friday, upper level ridging across the eastern U.S. will
begin to flatten, transitioning to a fairly zonal flow regime over
much of the southern CONUS. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough
will persist over the north-central U.S. along the Canadian border.
Expect very breezy and continued dry conditions through the end of
the work week over the Southwest and southern and central High
Plains.

...Southwest and Southern Plains...
The aforementioned westerly winds aloft will mix down to the surface
during peak heating, leading to strong westerly downslope flow
(sustained at 15-20 mph) and critically low RH (10-15%) that will
overlap very dry fuels on Day 2/Friday. Following several preceding
days of heightened fire weather conditions, the environment will be
further exacerbated across portions of the Southwest and southern
Plains. Winds look to be particularly strong near the Palmer Divide
in east-central CO; this area will be monitored for meeting Critical
thresholds if trends in forecast guidance continue. Increasing
clouds cover later in the day on Day 2/Friday is expected over much
of the region, which will likely work to mitigate some of the fire
weather threat before sunset.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0135 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0135 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 135 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 231845Z - 240100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern and Eastern Minnesota
  Western Wisconsin

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify through mid/late
afternoon initially across southern/central Minnesota, before
spreading into western Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east southeast
of Fairmont MN to 60 miles northeast of Saint Cloud MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 134...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.

...Guyer

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio 
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026