Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Mid-level flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies with short-waves traversing the crest of the central US ridge through the extended period. Eventually the ridge will break down, with potential for ejection of a deeper wave across Southwest into the Plains by the end of the period. Widespread rainfall will be common across the western US/eastern US during this time period, with little to no precipitation extending into the central/southern High Plains. As such, multiple periods of interest are expected to produce fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday through D4/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains... On D3/Sunday, aforementioned westerly flow aloft will increase across the northern/central Rockies. As a result of increasing westerly gradients and surface low development, an increase in downslope flow is expected across portions of the Front Range. There remains some disconnect in deterministic model runs in the strongest winds with the lowest relative humidity, with the strongest winds across Wyoming into Nebraska and the driest conditions across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Given the pattern, confidence is increasing that winds across the immediate Front Range and downslope favored zones will likely be higher than progged with lower relative humidity than in current guidance, with sustained westerly flow 15-20 mph gusting 30+ mph. It is also likely that through the higher elevations, winds may be even stronger. Fuels across portions of northeastern Colorado into Wyoming continue to be historically dry (seasonally above average and approaching maximum dryness for the time period). As such, a 40 percent area was introduced along the Front Range and into southeastern Wyoming. ...D5/Tuesday - Southern/Central Plains... Upper-level flow will shift southward D5/Tuesday, with increase in downslope flow expected to extend into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels across these regions remain critically dry. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and extend into southeastern Colorado. Some consideration was given to a small 70 percent region across the Texas Panhandle. For now, have maintained the 40 percent with some disagreement remaining in exactly how low relative humidity will be. Beyond D5/Tuesday, periods of locally Elevated conditions may occur across portions of the Central/Southern Plains as flow aloft remains strong. However, surface pressure gradients weaken D6/Wednesday with a building surface high. A stronger wave may eject from the Southwest on D7/Thursday to D8/Friday. At the same time, a stationary front may evolve across the eastern US into the southern Plains, bringing several rounds of precipitation. It is likely that some area of the central/southern High Plains will see additional increased fire weather potential. For now, model spread on features remains too high to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
