SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
A persistent and strong mid-level flow pattern emerges over the
southern U.S. early next week as upper-level troughing evolves
across the West. Subsequent lee trough development across the Plains
with deeper Gulf moisture confined to the southeastern U.S. will aid
in keeping dry and breezy conditions across portions of the central
and Southern Plains next week. More pronounced mid-level short waves
and attendant jet cores within the broad west/southwesterly flow
aloft could bring more significant fire weather threats to the
central and southern Plains, particularly on Day 4/Tuesday and Day
6/Thursday. 

...Day 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly winds in response to a deepening lee trough
across the central High Plains under moderate westerly flow aloft
should bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle on Day 3/Monday where 40% critical probabilities remain. A
robust 100 kt+ mid-level jet max ahead of a pronounced short wave
trough, along with rapidly strengthening lee trough across the
northern High Plains will promote enhanced fire weather concerns
across much of the central and southern Plains on Day 4/Tuesday.
Some uncertainty in RH reductions exists across the high Plains
adjacent to the Southern Rockies as mid and upper-level subtropical
moisture moves into the Southwest, but overall fire weather threat
remains high. Critical fire weather conditions remain most likely
across the TX Panhandle/vicinity and northeastern CO and the NE
Panhandle on Tuesday where a 70% critical probability area has been
introduced. Broad westerly flow aloft and associated downslope
drying and mixing will persist across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Wednesday. Another mid-level short wave and jet max moves into the
Southwest Thursday accompanied by deepening surface low pressure
across the Central Plains. Favorable downslope trajectories will
support dry and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday but wind magnitude uncertainty limits introduction of a
70% critical probability area at this time.

...Day 7-8/Friday-Saturday - Southern Plains...
Longer term ensemble guidance indicates a transition to northwest
flow aloft as a more progressive wave pattern emerges across CONUS
late next week, inviting a colder air mass into the Southern U.S.
for the weekend. Dry, post frontal flow could support continued fire
weather concerns for portions of the southern Plains on Day
7/Friday, but timing uncertainty limits predictability of fire
weather impacts late next week.

..Williams.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

MD 0076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX


Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142048Z - 142245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A discrete cell has recently intensified across
Maverick and Zavala Counties, while other more disorganized storms
continue to develop near/north of a sagging outflow in the San
Antonio vicinity. The undercutting outflow has tended to limit storm
duration and intensity thus far, but the Zavala County cell may have
a somewhat better opportunity to persist as it moves nearly parallel
to the outflow over the next 1-2 hours. Additional isolated cells
may develop later this afternoon across parts of south-central TX,
as relatively strong heating and ascent attendant to an approaching
mid/upper-level shortwave trough continue to erode an initially
substantial capping inversion. 

MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are
conditionally supportive of organized convection, and some threat
for severe hail and wind may accompany any persistent cells through
the afternoon. At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain
rather isolated, with the southeastward-moving outflow potentially
limiting the duration of any discrete cells. Uncertainty regarding
the coverage of the threat renders watch issuance unlikely, though
trends will continue to be monitored for development of multiple
longer-lived cells.

..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29040067 29919824 30029733 29979701 29529690 29079699
            27709743 27779815 28080027 29040067 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA


Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of east TX into western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142005Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase
through the afternoon. Watch issuance may eventually be needed,
though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has developed across parts of
north-central TX early this afternoon, with occasional weak
low-level rotation noted along the leading edge of the line. Weak
buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates have likely limited the
severe threat thus far across north TX, while a persistent capping
inversion (noted on the 18Z CRP/LCH soundings and a special College
Station sounding) has inhibited development of deep convection
farther south into central TX. However, increasing ascent associated
with an approaching mid/upper shortwave trough and filtered diurnal
heating are expected to weaken the cap and gradually increase
warm-sector buoyancy with time. An increase in storm coverage and
organization is still expected by late afternoon along the composite
outflow/cold front, as convection approaches east TX. 

Area VWPs generally depict gradually strengthening low-level flow
and enlarging hodographs, and this trend is expected to continue as
low-level mass response increases and a surface low begins to
consolidate and deepen near the ArkLaTex by late afternoon/early
evening. The strengthening ascent and effective SRH may result in
development of a more organized QLCS across parts of east/southeast
TX by late afternoon. While questions remain regarding the impact of
poor low-level lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z SHV sounding) on the
north and east extent of the severe threat, gradually increasing
damaging-wind and line-embedded tornado potential may necessitate
watch issuance by mid to late afternoon.

..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   32619549 32629478 32619424 32539369 32249346 31309336
            30599350 29189384 28949524 29339613 29719677 30359662
            31229634 32619549 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

WW 0005 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 4

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MAI TO
45 S MCN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063.

..GRAMS..01/25/26

ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC013-063-252240-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALHOUN              JACKSON             


GAC007-071-087-095-131-201-205-253-277-287-321-252240-

GA 
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAKER                COLQUITT            DECATUR             
DOUGHERTY            GRADY               MILLER              
MITCHELL             SEMINOLE            TIFT                
TURNER               WORTH               


GMZ735-252240-

CW

WW 5 TORNADO LA TX CW 142150Z - 150300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 5
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far Northwest Louisiana
  East and Southeast Texas
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
  900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms should gradually strengthen
through the rest of the afternoon and persist into the evening as it
moves across east/southeast Texas and into parts of Louisiana.
Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph will be a concern,
along with a few tornadic circulations embedded within the line.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Longview TX
to 15 miles south southwest of Angleton TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.

...Gleason

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

...20Z Update...
Relatively minor changes were made in portions of Central Texas
where stabilization has occurred behind earlier-day convection. A
line of convection moving into East Texas is still expected to
intensify later this afternoon as the shortwave trough progresses
east and the boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize. Some
semi-discrete/discrete activity also remains possible in the
vicinity of San Antonio. Outflow pushing south and deep-layer shear
parallel to the outflow continues to suggest large hail and damaging
wind potential will remain isolated. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 02/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/

...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this
afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.

Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.

Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.

...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

...Northwestern Nebraska and far South-Central South Dakota...
Increasing westerly flow at the crest of an upper-level ridge is
expected Sunday. A corresponding lee trough forming across the
northern/central Plains will enhance surface winds across the
region. A low-level jet collocated atop the broader southwest
surface wind field in northwestern NE and far south-central SD,
along with RH reductions to 15-20% and markedly dry fuels should
yield a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across the
area Sunday afternoon where critical highlights have been added.

...Central High Plains...
Slight modifications to the existing broad region of elevated
highlights were needed owing to recent precipitation across portions
of eastern CO and western KS. Expanding upper-level cloud cover over
the High Plains adjacent to the CO Front Range could reduce boundary
layer mixing and subsequent surface wind speeds for the area,
mitigating a broader fire weather concern. Downslope enhanced winds
of 15-25 mph with higher gusts should emerge south of the Palmer
Divide amid afternoon RH of around 15%. However, recent observed
rainfall between 0.10-0.40" should temporarily mitigate an otherwise
critical fire weather environment across the area.

..Williams.. 02/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to be over the southern
Rockies during the day on Sunday with a weak jet max near the apex
of the ridge over northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This
should result in dry, breezy conditions across parts of the central
and northern High Plains and downslope flow along the Front Range in
Colorado. RH near 15-20% is expected along in the presence of winds
near 15-20 mph with localized higher winds possible near the
mountainous terrain. These factors along with dry fuels in the area
prompted the addition of an Elevated area across portions of the
central and northern High Plains. Precipitation is expected across
parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado, with the much of
the wetting rains expected to remain south of the Elevated risk
area. However, if more or less rain falls than expected, adjustments
may be needed in this area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado.

...Discussion...
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated
100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California
Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid
50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As
temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak
instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of
southern California. Strong low-level flow  (a 40+ knot low-level
jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves
onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore
flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe
weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.

..Bentley.. 02/14/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern
Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential
for a strong tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge
with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build
across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the
mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken
through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the
western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges. 

...Southeast...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability
is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong
low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential
where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows
varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line
becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps
it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough
and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain
more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this
line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and
northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and
strong low-level jet overlap.

12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South
Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the
forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern
North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat
Sunday morning through the afternoon. 

Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool
Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE
around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this
time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but
no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 02/14/2026