SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Friday.

...Discussion...
Embedded within a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the
mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the
afternoon. Strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening of
deep-layer lapse rates may yield weak and shallow buoyancy. However,
thermodynamic profiles appear insufficient to support deep
convection or lightning at this time.

..Weinman.. 01/15/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The forecast remains unchanged. The lowest RH is expected to remain
near the terrain/foothills in Colorado where downslope flow will be
greatest. However, there may be a small zone in northeast Colorado
along the fringe of lower RH that will observe a couple hours of
critical conditions this afternoon. For additional details, see the
previous discussion below.

..Wendt.. 01/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as
a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet
streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north
bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in
place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather
potential Thursday.

...Central and southern High Plains...
As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will
promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the
central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior
cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of
southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of
25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor
sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given
very dry fine fuels.

A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest
gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This
lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now.
However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range
and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are
possible.

A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX
Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee
troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below
20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several
hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts
of the southern Plains this afternoon.

..Southeast...
Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are
likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern
FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler
surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the
front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree,
though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry
state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the
Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories.
Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida
in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a
cold front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/15/2026