WW 638 TORNADO LA TX 241745Z - 250100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Extreme west central Louisiana
  Southeast and east central Texas

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1145 AM until
  700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected this
afternoon/evening across east central and southeast Texas, with the
potential for a few tornadoes, occasional severe thunderstorm gusts
of 60-70 mph, and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Later the
afternoon/evening, the severe threat will spread into western
Louisiana.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Lufkin TX
to 55 miles south of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Thompson

WW 0638 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 638

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CLL
TO 35 NNE CLL TO 50 NW LFK TO 5 NW GGG.

..JEWELL..11/24/25

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 638 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC031-081-085-250040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

DE SOTO              RED RIVER           SABINE              


TXC005-015-041-051-073-157-185-199-201-225-241-291-313-339-347-
351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-473-477-250040-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA             AUSTIN              BRAZOS              
BURLESON             CHEROKEE            FORT BEND           
GRIMES               HARDIN              HARRIS              
HOUSTON              JASPER              LIBERTY             
MADISON              MONTGOMERY          NACOGDOCHES         
NEWTON               PANOLA              POLK                
RUSK                 SABINE              SAN AUGUSTINE       
SAN JACINTO          SHELBY              TRINITY             
TYLER                WALKER              WALLER              
WASHINGTON

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

Deep upper-level troughing over the eastern US and weaker
upper-level ridging over the West will continue through mid-week
before transitioning into quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS.
Upper-level troughing is likely to develop over the West this
weekend, but forecast guidance varies widely on the strength and
trajectory of the troughing over the West. 

...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday: Southeast Coastal Plain into
Florida...
A cold front will push through the Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday -
Day 4/Thursday, with dry/locally breezy post-frontal conditions
expected. Elevated to locally critically winds/RH are possible from
the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Panhandle Day 4/Thursday,
with dry/locally breezy conditions likely continuing Day 5/Friday
and expanding into central Florida. Probabilities for critical fire
weather conditions were not added due to potential rainfall ahead of
the front and uncertainty regarding the overlap of critical
winds/RH. If the rainfall does not materialize or confidence grows
in areas that will receive little to no rainfall, probabilities will
be necessary in subsequent outlooks. 

...Day 6/Saturday - Day 7/Sunday: Southwest Texas...
Dry/windy conditions are possible across southwest Texas this
weekend. However, given the aforementioned high uncertainty
regarding the potential troughing over the West and marginal fuel
dryness, no probabilities for critical conditions were introduced.

..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon
into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to general thunder and severe probabilities have
been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect the latest
observations and guidance consensus. Storms have increased in
coverage and intensity along the cold front, and along a primary
low-level moisture confluence zone within the free warm sector.
Storms seem to be struggling in intensity at the moment, possibly
due to a sub-optimal vertical wind shear profile in place (please
see MCD 2223 for more details on short-term convective trends).
However, convection should persist to some degree along and ahead of
the cold front through the afternoon into the overnight hours as
upper support from an approaching mid-level trough overspreads the
Sabine/MS River Valleys. With adequate low-level moisture advection
continuing ahead of the cold front, supercells and line segments
capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will remain
possible through tonight, from eastern TX into central MS.

..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/

...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning.  Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday.  This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.

Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border.  Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range.  The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail.  The threat will spread  this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
An amplified shortwave trough will further deepen as it swings
across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Associated
deep surface cyclone will track across the central Great Lakes to
the Ottawa Valley. Downstream frontal occlusion should arc to a
weaker low moving across New England, with the leading cold front
trailing southward and exiting much of the Atlantic Seaboard by
Wednesday night. 

...East...
Surface-based thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the
aforementioned front is expected to remain sparse on Wednesday,
limiting unconditional severe probabilities. Instability should be
weak north of south GA/north FL, where strong deep-layer shear will
be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned front.

Rather low-topped convection may precede the most pronounced
mid-level DCVA in the western/upstate NY vicinity on Wednesday
afternoon. While it may be insufficient to produce lightning amid
flimsy buoyancy, it could be accompanied by strong gusts along a
secondary surface frontal surge with a strengthening pressure
gradient in its wake.

..Grams.. 11/24/2025