MD 0168 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Louisiana into Mississippi and Far
Western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071854Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected to increase in coverage across portions of northeastern
Louisiana into much of central Mississippi and portions of western
Alabama. A new severe thunderstorm watch could be issued this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms across northern Louisiana into
northern Mississippi continues south-southeast across the discussion
area, with additional thunderstorm development ahead of this line
ongoing as daytime heating reaches convective temperatures. These
thunderstorms will be capable of damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH,
with the greatest threat being with any localized bowing segments or
downbursts supported by modest DCAPE and well-mixed boundary layers.
A new severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for this
afternoon.

..Halbert/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...SHV...

LAT...LON   31089089 31249158 31669194 32249205 32899198 33249139
            33739015 34068848 34028809 33548802 33118802 32768805
            32398826 31948845 31808875 31478970 31089089 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

MD 0167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO...NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK


Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western
Pennsylvania...southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071757Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable
of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of
tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper
Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains
somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the
mid/upper 50s.  However warming and mixing with continuing
insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and
thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess
of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow
increasing to near 50 kt.  

Deepening convective development now appears underway along and
discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal
surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio.  As
this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing
thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize. 
This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and
ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and
damaging wind gusts.  

With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly
component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become
supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given
the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. 
However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio
into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests
that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado
threat by late afternoon.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   42537973 42127817 40797932 40018008 38738163 38358266
            39088350 40548232 42537973 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

WW 0026 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0026 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 26 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 071915Z - 080300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 26
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Louisiana
  Mississippi

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
  900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to slowly progress
southeastward with additional storm development ahead of it from
northeast Louisiana into Mississippi. Wind damage is the primary
hazard with the stronger storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Natchez MS to 35 miles north northeast of Meridian MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...WW 25...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25020.

...Guyer

WW 23 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 071355Z - 072000Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Arkansas
  The Missouri Bootheel
  Northern Mississippi
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 755 AM until
  200 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will continue to move eastward this
morning and early afternoon while posing a threat for mainly
scattered damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph, and
a brief tornado or two may also occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of
Dyersburg TN to 25 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Gleason

WW 0023 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 23

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELD TO 50
NNW GWO TO 20 WSW UOX TO 60 SSW CKV.

..HALBERT..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 23 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC003-017-041-043-072040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY               CHICOT              DESHA               
DREW                 


MSC003-009-011-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-133-135-139-141-
145-151-161-072040-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN               BENTON              BOLIVAR             
CALHOUN              CHICKASAW           ITAWAMBA            
LAFAYETTE            LEE                 MONROE              
PONTOTOC             PRENTISS            SUNFLOWER           
TALLAHATCHIE         TIPPAH              TISHOMINGO          
UNION                WASHINGTON          YALOBUSHA           


TNC039-071-109-072040-

WW 0025 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 4

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MAI TO
45 S MCN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063.

..GRAMS..01/25/26

ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC013-063-252240-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALHOUN              JACKSON             


GAC007-071-087-095-131-201-205-253-277-287-321-252240-

GA 
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAKER                COLQUITT            DECATUR             
DOUGHERTY            GRADY               MILLER              
MITCHELL             SEMINOLE            TIFT                
TURNER               WORTH               


GMZ735-252240-

CW

WW 25 TORNADO NY OH PA WV 071825Z - 080100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 25
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
125 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western New York
  Eastern and Southern Ohio
  Western Pennsylvania
  Northern West Virginia

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
  800 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and intensify this
afternoon across the region, with conditions supportive of
supercells and fast-moving severe storms capable of damaging winds
and tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles south of Athens OH to 30 miles
north of Bradford PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.

...Guyer

WW 0024 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 24

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CKV TO
10 SE CKV TO 45 N BWG TO 40 SW SDF.

..KERR..03/07/26

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 24 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC003-009-031-061-085-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-179-213-219-
227-071940-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                BARREN              BUTLER              
EDMONSON             GRAYSON             GREEN               
HARDIN               HART                LARUE               
LOGAN                METCALFE            MONROE              
NELSON               SIMPSON             TODD                
WARREN               


TNC003-021-037-043-055-081-083-085-099-101-111-117-119-125-135-
147-149-159-165-169-181-187-189-071940-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              CHEATHAM            DAVIDSON            
DICKSON              GILES               HICKMAN             
HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           LAWRENCE            
LEWIS                MACON               MARSHALL            
MAURY                MONTGOMERY          PERRY

WW 24 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 071625Z - 072300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 24
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Kentucky
  Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM
  until 500 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue east-northeastward across
the region this afternoon with damaging winds as the most common
hazard.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Bowling
Green KY to 85 miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24030.

...Guyer

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A midlevel trough will move eastward across the Northeast, while a
related cold front moves slowly eastward across the Appalachians and
eventually to the East Coast late in the period. Ahead of the front,
isolated thunderstorms are expected within a broad pre-frontal
surface trough extending across the Carolinas into southeast VA
during the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest,
diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass
(lower/middle 60s dewpoints) will still contribute to weak
surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. This, combined with
around 30 kt of effective shear, may promote a couple loosely
organized storms during the afternoon and early evening before
quickly spreading offshore. The stronger storms will pose a risk of
locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Weinman.. 03/07/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and
well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/07/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing
east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This
feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today
as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A
combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread
rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will
limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies,
though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the
northern High Plains. 

...Northern High Plains...
A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support
strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late
afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may
coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the
downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather
concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into
adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal
highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours
per MRMS estimates. 

...Southern California Coast...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the
lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle
southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds
strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to
upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure
gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support
east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times)
today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds
is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and
ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain
unsupportive of fire spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...