Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough across the northeastern U.S. on Day 3/Monday will move offshore into the Atlantic by Day 4/Tuesday, while ridging builds over central CONUS. Offshore flow trajectories under the deeper northwest flow from the departing upper trough will support a continued fire weather threat across portions of the Mid Atlantic, Southeast and FL on Day 3/Monday. Farther west, an upper-level trough will impinge upon the West Coast on Day 4/Tuesday. Fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge across portions of the Southwest and central/southern Plains as the upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level flow progress eastward midweek, with surface lee troughing evolving across the northern and central Plains on Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... ...Central and Southern Plains... Modest westerly flow aloft along with a surface trough across the northern Plains will promote downslope enhanced drying and breezy west winds across eastern WY into the NE Panhandle and southwestern SD on Day 3/Monday. Farther south, increasing southerly winds south of the surface trough amid dry boundary layer conditions should result in a fire weather concern from the northern TX Panhandle northeastward into much of southwestern KS. 40% critical probabilities for both regions remain largely intact. ...Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida... A fire weather threat will continue for portions of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast on Day 3/Monday as dry, post-frontal flow and robust northwesterly flow aloft impacts the region. Dry conditions and a steady northeast wind across FL is expected on Day 4/Tuesday as surface high pressure settles into the Deep South. ...Southwest... A mid-level perturbation and increasing mid/upper moisture from the Pacific should bring some high-based afternoon convection to portions of eastern AZ into central NM on Day 3/Monday. Dry and warm conditions will further dry fuels with some ignitions possible from isolated dry thunderstorm activity. Dry and breezy conditions return mid week as the next robust upper trough moves into the Intermountain West, with potential impact on holdover ignitions. A 10% dry thunderstorm probability was introduced to highlight this threat. ...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday... A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated increased southwest flow aloft will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest for the middle of next week where fuels remain receptive. Introduced a 70% critical probability for southeastern CO, northeastern NM, southwestern KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles for Day 5/Wednesday, where a mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface pressure gradients associated with the deepening lee trough. Downslope enhanced drying and stronger west/southwest winds continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 6/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains. ..Williams.. 04/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
