SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).

On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.

On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns. 

Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.

..Marsh.. 12/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm
potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of
northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 12/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains
through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface
temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential
for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this
afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.

Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight
across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong
cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid
MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a
low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and
central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast
to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe
hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer
shear will be strong.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification.  At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin.  However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.

In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night.  Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday. 
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025