
Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Carolina into
central and eastern North Carolina.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...
Valid 161919Z - 162115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes continues across
WW69.
DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, strong thunderstorms were ongoing
within a loosely organized convective band from east-central NC to
coastal SC. Thus far, numerous storm interactions and weak buoyancy
(~500 J/kg MLCAPE 18z MHX Sounding) have limited storm organization.
Numerous, but transient, low-level mesocyclones have been observed
with embedded convective element this afternoon. Kinematics remain
quite strong with 0-1 km shear of 40+ kts. This will continue to
pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes with any stronger
mesocyclones able to become established.
Some clearing as been noted to the west of the primary cluster over
central NC. As large-scale ascent from the upper trough moves
overhead this afternoon, additional storm development is possible
ahead of the cold front. Storm mode is likely to remain mixed/messy
with clusters and line segments. Still, the very strong low-level
wind fields will support a continued risk for damaging gusts and
tornadoes across WW69 this afternoon.
..Lyons.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33597958 35527822 36557751 36607597 36327548 35807529
35427531 34987570 34637633 34157739 33897775 33677806
33317878 33207896 33147922 33207941 33597958
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 67
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Maryland
Northeast North Carolina
Eastern Virginia
The eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1050 AM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Several bands and clusters of storms are expected to
intensify through the afternoon, with the potential to produce
swaths of damaging winds, some significant (75-85 mph), and embedded
circulations will pose a threat for several tornadoes, some of which
could be strong (EF2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Baltimore MD to 55
miles west southwest of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Thompson
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RZZ TO 30 ENE RIC TO 25 SSW NHK TO 20 E NHK TO 20 SE DOV. ..BENTLEY..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC019-039-045-047-162140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC001-073-093-095-103-115-119-131-133-159-181-199-550-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-162140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 68
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Delaware
Eastern Maryland
New Jersey
Southeast Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1130 AM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Pre-frontal bands of storms will spread northeastward from
Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania through the afternoon, with an
attendant threat for swaths of damaging winds (60-80 mph) and a few
tornadoes with embedded circulations. A couple of strong tornadoes
(EF2) will be possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Allentown PA to
35 miles west of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.
...Thompson
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BWI TO 30 NW ILG TO 20 W ABE TO 10 NW AVP. ..BENTLEY..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-162140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-162140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-162140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTERRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 69
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern North Carolina
Northeast South Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters and band of storms are expected to intensify and
spread northeastward this afternoon/evening while the environment
becomes more favorable for both damaging gusts up to 75 mph and
tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong (EF2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elizabeth City NC
to 30 miles south southeast of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67...WW
68...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.
...Thompson
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CHS TO 10 NNW GSB TO 20 ENE AVC. ..LYONS..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-055-061-065-079-083-095-103-107-117- 129-133-137-141-147-155-163-177-187-191-195-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HALIFAX HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON SCC033-041-043-051-067-089-162140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURGRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 70 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Florida Extreme southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...New storms are forming in the warm sector across north Florida, and a separate band of storms over the northeast Gulf will move inland through the afternoon. The storm environment favors the potential for a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and supercells ahead of the line, as well as occasional damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Brunswick GA to 80 miles southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67...WW 68...WW 69... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...ThompsonRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 45 ENE SGJ. ..LYONS..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-083-089-101-119-125-162140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION NASSAU PASCO SUMTER UNION GAC127-162140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GLYNN AMZ454-162140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NMRead more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...20Z Update... A couple of changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change is to remove the Moderate Risk area. Numerous storms have developed early this afternoon along and near the instability axis from the eastern Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, instability has remained weaker than was expected, and severe threat coverage should be a bit less than was previously forecast. The second change to the outlook is to remove severe threat probabilities and thunder to the west of the instability corridor from the Florida Panhandle northward into parts of the southern and central Appalachians. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/ ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion. Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line. Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer destabilization over eastern NY into New England. In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line. Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity through this evening. ...GA/FL... Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region, there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this evening.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. One exception may be near the far southern FL Peninsula and Keys as the prior cold front intrusion on D1-2 stalls near the FL Straits. While some airmass modification will occur north of the boundary over offshore waters, thunderstorm potential on land appears negligible through Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 03/16/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated area over the southern Plains was adjusted slightly eastward to align with the latest forecast guidance. Locally critical conditions will be possible over portions of the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma during the Day 2/Tuesday time frame. Additionally, this lack of moisture recovery will effectively extend the burn period and pre-condition fuels prior to the arrival of the strongest synoptic winds on Day 2/Tuesday afternoon. Farther west and north, an additional Elevated fire weather area has been introduced across north-central New Mexico, the eastern Colorado plains, and adjacent segments of the central High Plains. This region will experience sustained west-to-northwest winds near 15-20 mph with RHs of 15-20%. While northern portions of this risk area may struggle to meet strict RH thresholds, the proximity to the upper-level jet suggests these areas will see the highest wind magnitudes, likely compensating for the marginal humidity. ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20% will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Discussion... With the trailing portion of a cold front expected to have exited the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday, any lingering deep convection near the front should be relegated to the FL Straits during the mid to late morning. An expansive surface anticyclone, initially centered over far southeast TX/Lower Sabine Valley vicinity, will maintain a pervasive continental air mass across the northern Gulf. Conditions will be too hostile for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 03/16/2026Read more

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026 ...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic States this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Virginia Eastern North Carolina Maryland A small part of northeast South Carolina District of Columbia * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes, a couple strong * SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Thompson.. 03/16/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...WASHINGTON D.C. AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion. Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line. Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer destabilization over eastern NY into New England. In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line. Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity through this evening. ...GA/FL... Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region, there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 03/16/2026Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CLT TO 30 WNW SOP TO 20 WNW DAN TO 30 W SHD. ..LYONS..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-033-037-051-063-077-085-093-105-125-135-145-153-165-181- 183-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CASWELL CHATHAM CUMBERLAND DURHAM GRANVILLE HARNETT HOKE LEE MOORE ORANGE PERSON RICHMOND SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-083-143-590-680-161740- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE HALIFAX PITTSYLVANIA VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARERead more