SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts
of southern California and Arizona.

...Southern CA to AZ...
While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude
shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its
spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a
broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough
in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree
of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA
between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with
low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition,
with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level
cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm
potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for
low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along
with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate
negligible severe potential.

Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular
Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that
yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through
Thursday evening.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 30 07:36:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 30 07:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak,
will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East
Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across
the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH
may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to
Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with
sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph
(perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end
Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level
conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least
localized wildfire spread.

..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with
broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the
central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the
upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface
high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing
expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the
central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated
conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where
localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore
flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will
continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across
portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end
Elevated highlights remain in place.

..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Coastal southern CA...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore
of coastal southern CA through 12Z Thursday. The compact mid-level
cold core might reach the Channel Islands, with generally slight
cooling farther east. This may be sufficient for charge separation
near the end of the period, as low-topped convection is expected to
increase overnight ahead of the trough. Despite modest low-level
hodograph curvature, weak effective bulk shear amid a meager
buoyancy profile suggests convection should remain too
shallow/disorganized for an appreciable severe threat.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.


..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/30/2025