
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection, precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff low's progression. The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains. A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2 (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX, the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and receptive. The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday. While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Areas affected...Parts of LA into southwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091812Z - 092015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms may pose a risk of
damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a localized/brief tornado
risk.
DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broad/weak low-level warm advection in
southern/central LA, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is
aiding in destabilization and removal of inhibition. As a result, a
modest uptick in thunderstorm strength and coverage has occurred
over the last 30 minutes or so. While the lingering inhibition and
generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on
thunderstorm intensification/longevity, around 30-40 kt of effective
shear (stronger with northward extent) and small clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs may support a couple loosely organized storms
through the afternoon. The stronger/longer-lived storms will pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, though
the moist boundary layer and low-level streamwise vorticity may
support a localized/brief tornado risk as well. Current thinking is
that the severe risk will remain too localized for a watch, though
trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30829390 31129382 31549363 32029315 32569198 32579101
32429025 32158998 31858993 31489003 31009053 30439229
30389313 30509363 30829390
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 28
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and southern Arkansas
Extreme souheast Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until
300 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will spread eastward from
southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas through the morning, with
additional storm development possible into southern Arkansas. Large
hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be the main threat through the
morning, though upscale storm growth could support the potential for
some wind damage by late morning into early afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of De
Queen AR to 45 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Thompson
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELD TO 20 S LIT TO 25 NE LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179 ..CHALMERS..03/09/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-025-041-043-069-079-085-095-117-091940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PRAIRIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southeast Arkansas
Extreme northeast Louisiana
Northern Mississippi
Southern part of western Tennessee
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Arkansas into
Tennessee and northern Mississippi, with an expected increase in the
threat for wind damage and large hail through the afternoon.
Additional, more isolated storm development is expected across the
Ark-La-Miss, where a couple of supercells will be possible. Storm
interactions across the watch area could support an isolated tornado
or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north of
Greenville MS to 35 miles east southeast of Tupelo MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas. Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. ...Midwest... The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance. Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly. However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface pressure falls/ascent will be maximized. ...Southern Plains... 12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+ inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia. ...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening... A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today. Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are probable. ...Central High Plains... Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected. Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of western OK. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more