SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift
southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A
second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great
Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast
to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern
US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and
western portions of the country with increasingly strong
northwesterly flow. 

At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong
high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves
offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread
winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust
inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak
lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential
here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely
over the US on Monday.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 24 08:33:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0040 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK


Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/North-Central
TX...South-Central/Southeast OK

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 240729Z - 241130Z

SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet is expected to persist
from southwest Texas into north-central Texas and
south-central/southeast Oklahoma throughout the morning.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations around the region currently place
the freezing line from Bonham (in Fannin County TX) southwestward
through northwest Tarrant County before diving more
south-southwestward through San Saba, TX. This orientation puts much
of the DFW Metroplex just above freezing, with some temperatures
actually increasing a degree or two amid light precipitation and
resultant wet bulbing. Even so, continued cold-air advection is
anticipated, with temperatures eventually dropping below freezing
later this morning. Those areas already below freezing will also see
temperatures continue to decrease throughout the morning.

Current regional radar imagery shows some banding across
north-central TX (northwest of the Metroplex), where strong 850mb
warm-air advection is ongoing. Correlation coefficient from KFWS
suggests most of this is sleet. Additionally, a large area of light
precipitation continues to build upstream of the region amid modest
lift attendant to a subtle lead shortwave trough and continued
isentropic ascent. Expectation is for precipitation to continue
across this region for the next several hours, with sleet as the
prominent p-type across southwest/northwest TX and south-central OK.
Freezing rain will likely become more common across north-central TX
over the next hour or two, with another transition to sleet possible
later this morning as the surface continues to cool.

..Mosier.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33530002 34539740 34689541 33419497 32439587 31120069
            32130113 33530002

MD 0039 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.


Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Central and Northern
Arkansas.

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 240718Z - 241115Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates up to 1 inch per hour, are
expected to develop from parts of far eastern Oklahoma eastward
across much of central and northern Arkansas over the next several
hours. The snow should be mixed with sleet over parts of central
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough
in the western U.S., with a belt of strong zonal westerly flow over
much of the central and eastern U.S. Lift is currently maximized
over the Ark-La-Tex and southern Ozarks, where a shortwave trough
appears to moving through the flow, and the right exit region of an
expansive mid-level jet is located. Within this zone, radar shows a
large area winter precipitation, which is organized into an
east-to-west band. This band is being supported by strong lift
associated with the northern edge of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet.
As the low-level jet shifts eastward across south-central Arkansas
over the next 3 to 6 hours, isentropic lift will become maximized in
parts of central and northern Arkansas. Snowfall rates are expected
to peak near 1 inch per hour within the heaviest part of the band.
On southern edge of the band, a sleet/snow mix is expected. The
potential for heavy precipitation should continue over the next four
to six hours.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35809038 35429017 35139019 34919024 34569051 34479078
            34429160 34439365 34489446 34619484 34899502 35169505
            35579494 35969445 36069279 35989086 35809038

MD 0038 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR THE TEXARKANA REGION INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI


Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...The Texarkana Region into southern Arkansas and far
western Mississippi

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 240526Z - 241030Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across the
Texarkana region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi
through the overnight hours. Freezing rain rates between 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures across southern AR into the
Texarkana region are now mostly below freezing despite a slight
abatement of near-surface cold air advection. Several ASOS/AWOS
stations, mPING reports, and web cams have been reporting
predominantly freezing rain with pockets of embedded sleet over the
past couple of hours. Looking upstream, a heavier precipitation band
is noted migrating eastward across north TX/southern OK attendant to
a focused zone of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent at around
850 mb. This uptick in low-level warm advection is noted in regional
VWPs as a steady enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph, which supports
recent analyses and forecasts. 

Further strengthening of warm advection/frontogenetical ascent at
around the 850 mb level is expected per recent guidance as the
precipitation band spreads east into southern AR over the next 4-6
hours. Strong ascent combined with persistent warm temperatures at
around 700 mb will maintain a broad swath of freezing rain across
the Texarkana region into southern AR, and will likely promote the
onset of freezing rain to far western MS. Freezing rain rates on the
order of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely, but localized rates up to 0.1
inch/hour appear possible across southwest/south-central AR where
CAM consensus for the past few hours has depicted the highest QPF
amounts (which appear reasonable based on observed banding
upstream).

..Moore.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32889136 32999414 33229473 33589517 33919537 34229537
            34489517 34579469 34619391 34609290 34609163 34559112
            34399070 34179042 33959036 33219058 32999086 32889136

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.

...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.

Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central
US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS.
Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the
southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow
pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low
for D2/Sunday.

..Thornton.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad
mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring
several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the
Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in
place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet
conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of
fuels.

..Thornton.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
slightly elevated in nature.

Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026