Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates
that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of
the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. 
Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the
Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is
not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow
across North America.  It still appears that an increasingly
confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging
across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream
troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface
ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard
late this week through next weekend.  This is likely to further
impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. 
Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from 
the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that
generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the
large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period. 
Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with
downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard and western Atlantic.  The troughing is likely to be
reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging
within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge.  

It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating
cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper
Great Lakes region by late tonight.  In the wake of this feature,
models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air
will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow
veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf
coast vicinity.

Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a
stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through
the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely
through this period and beyond.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025