
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent. A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the central and southern Rockies as a broader upper trough overspreads the northeast on Sunday. As a surface low rapidly ejects toward the Northeast Atlantic coastline, surface high pressure will overspread much of the Interior West and most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Static stability with the high pressure should limit thunderstorm development over most areas. The best chance for any thunderstorm development will be along the Gulf Coast ahead of a surface cold front early Sunday. Before the front moves offshore, near 60 F surface dewpoints along the coast will promote marginal buoyancy, which will support thunderstorm development along the front given low-level convergence. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Breezy surface winds are expected across the southern High Plains in the vicinity of a cold front moving through the area. Over southeast NM, around 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will briefly overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of the front during the afternoon. However, marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. Farther east, dry return flow is expected across parts of the Southeast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given receptive fuels), generally light surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk compared to previous days. ..Weinman.. 11/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Diurnal heating amid a dry post-frontal air mass will result in 15-25 percent afternoon RH across parts of the Southeast. These dry conditions combined with breezy/gusty northerly surface winds (sustained around 15 mph) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southern GA and the western half of the FL Peninsula during the afternoon, given dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon or evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains and Middle MS Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge southward across the southern Plains toward the Arklatex. Seasonal moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across much of central and eastern TX to the Sabine River Valley, promoting enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm development. Given the expected presence of a strong southerly low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Eastern TX to the Arklatex and Sabine River Valley... Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across eastern TX into the Sabine River Valley, pockets of occasional heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s F. Should this occur, mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, may yield MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. The latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal points for thunderstorm initiation. One is along the approaching cold front in northeast TX into southwestern AR and far northwestern LA by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and support severe gusts. Ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence bands, over the TX coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm initiation. Despite the departing nature of the low-level jet, appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+ kt west-northwesterlies glancing the Arklatex, will support elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity may begin to develop across parts of western Texas by this afternoon, before increasing within an expanding area of precipitation across parts of the central and southern Great Plains toward lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying flow, including building mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale digging troughing across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies later today through tonight. There is notable spread still evident within/among the model output concerning this evolution, but models generally indicate that this will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of eastern Colorado into the adjacent central Great Plains by 12Z Saturday. This is close on the heels of a cool/dry intrusion still ongoing across the central into southwestern Gulf Basin, in the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing approaching the Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most significant short wave perturbation still digging within this regime is forecast to rapidly accelerate into the northwestern Atlantic today through tonight, and trailing surface ridging likely will begin shifting east of the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Models suggest that this will occur in a manner allowing for a strengthening southerly return flow from the Texas South Plains/lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. This may be accompanied by rapid north-northeastward advection of moisture now present across/east of the Mexican Plateau, and include near-surface dew points increasing through the mid 50s to lower 60s F across Deep South Texas into portions of western North Texas by the end of the period. However, to the north of Deep South Texas, where relatively warm mid-level temperatures probably will inhibit thunderstorm development, the moisture return is generally forecast above a residual cool/stable near-surface layer, which will remain deeper with northward/eastward extent into the central Great Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley. Still, forecast soundings indicate that this moistening, near the base of a layer of steepening lapse rates aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, will provide support for convective development capable of producing lightning. It appears that this could initiate across the Permian Basin vicinity by this afternoon, if not perhaps earlier, before forcing for ascent supports increasingly widespread convection and embedded weak thunderstorm activity across parts of the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley tonight. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/28/2025Read more