
Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and
Mississippi...southwestern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 112318Z - 120115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
intensify and organize while advancing east of the lower Mississippi
Valley through 7-10 CDT, preceded by at least a couple of developing
supercells. It appears that this may be accompanied by increasing
potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been slowly intensifying
along eastward advancing conglomerate convective outflow across
central Louisiana, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a
lower/mid-tropospheric short wave perturbation progressing toward
the lower Mississippi Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
ahead of the perturbation is on the order of 40+ kt, with shear
strong. Although lapse rates do not appear particularly steep,
forecast soundings suggest that mixed-layer CAPE is now generally on
the order of 1000-1500 J/kg across the region. Inflow of this air
may support continuing upscale convective growth, as more discrete
storms also develop and intensify downstream across parts of
southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi.
Latest Rapid Refresh indicates that a 30-35+ kt southwesterly 850 mb
jet nosing inland across south central Louisiana will continue
propagating east-northeastward through this evening, contributing to
enlarging low-level hodographs which could supporting increasing
potential for tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind gust.
..Kerr/Smith.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30869254 31919097 33008948 33758718 32068706 30288955
29219111 29669254 30869254
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 112247Z - 120045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist
into the early evening hours across the northern Mid Atlantic
states, with damaging winds and perhaps hail being the primary
threats.
DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms on the eastern edge of
WW 45 will pose a threat for primarily damaging straight-line winds
into the early evening hours. There is still a small window of
tornado potential through at least 8 PM EDT, though forecast
profiles ahead of the ongoing storms show a rapid stabilization of
the nocturnal boundary layer. Even with this stabilization, there is
sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer vertical shear to support a
continued severe threat as storms make the transition from
surface-based to elevated. Some potential for hail exists, though is
expected to largely remain at or below 1.0 inches in diameter.
..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39047785 39457751 39687732 40067743 40597662 40677582
40507468 40237392 39427427 38607497 38857773 39047785
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HLG TO 30 SSE LBE TO 20 N AOO. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12/00Z. ..KERR..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-005-013-021-023-025-027-031-043-510-120000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BALTIMORE CARROLL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-009-013-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-067-071-075-087- 093-097-099-107-109-111-133-120000- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARERead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HSV TO 30 WSW CSV. ..KERR..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC089-103-112340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON MORGAN TNC035-049-051-112340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS FRANKLIN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday evening from 700 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A broken cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move west to east across the Watch area this evening. The stronger storms will mainly be capable of a wind-damage risk, but a brief tornado is possible. This activity will likely move east of the coast by the late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Trenton NJ to 30 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...SmithRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central and Southwest Alabama Southeast Louisiana Southern and Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 655 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...An organizing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to move east across the Watch this evening into the early overnight hours. Damaging straight-line winds and a tornado risk will probably accompany the more intense portions of the squall line. Additionally, a couple of supercells ahead of the band are also possible and may yield an all hazard risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Meridian MS to 25 miles southwest of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 47... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...SmithRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LCH TO 30 NNE ESF. ..KERR..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-009-023-039-053-059-079-097-120040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA AVOYELLES CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 44 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western, Central, and Northern Louisiana East and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and into the early evening while posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph with bowing line segments. A strong tornado is possible if supercells develop ahead of the line this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Houston TX to 15 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...GleasonRead more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Northwest flow aloft will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 3/Friday. Flow becomes more zonal across much of the central CONUS for Day 4/Saturday as the first indications of a upper level shortwave trough drops through the Pacific Northwest. By Day 5/Sunday, this trough digs significantly southward over the central Plains and reaches the southern Appalachian Mountains by Day 6/Monday before retreating northward again on Day 7/Tuesday over the Eastern Seaboard. The latest forecast guidance continues to dig the trough farther south with successive runs, suggesting some uncertainty related to the trough's evolution as it moves eastward. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS while the Great Plains remain between the two features under northwest flow. Forecast guidance continues to show the upper level high strengthening well above seasonal norms generally centered over Arizona Day 8/Wednesday and beyond. On Day 3/Friday, downslope flow off the central and southern Rocky Mountains will continue. Minimal changes were made to the 40% probabilities for this day. Forecast guidance continues to show wind and RH values falling within elevated criteria. Over the southern and central Appalachians, there remains significant differences in forecast guidance as to how dry surface air will become under the post-frontal environment not mention preceding rainfall. This will be watched with future issuances. On Day 4/Saturday, the latest forecast guidance indicates a slightly more southerly track associated with the aforementioned deep trough. This will allow for stronger winds to impact much of the state of New Mexico, thus necessitating a 70% area of critical conditions. The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn farther west was the high fuel moistures across extreme western New Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are expected to meet criteria. However, this event will serve to pre-condition fuels in these areas. Farther north through the Front Range, yet another day of downslope winds will need to be watched for trends toward a potential mountain wave setup. On Day 5/Sunday, on the back side of the trough, expect northwest flow to provide another day of strong winds associated with persistent dry air again over southeastern New Mexico and much of west Texas. The 40% area was moved slightly south over this region with a 70% area also introduced over extreme southeast New Mexico and portions of nearby west Texas. Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will serve to cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period. Regardless of winds, RHs would suggest extended burn periods across these areas given receptive fuels. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W SDF TO 15 WSW LUK. ..KERR..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-043-061-115-155-112240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FLOYD HARRISON OHIO SWITZERLAND KYC011-015-017-023-029-037-041-063-069-073-077-081-097-103-111- 117-135-161-163-181-185-187-191-201-205-209-211-215-223- 112240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOONE BOURBON BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL ELLIOTT FLEMING FRANKLIN GALLATIN GRANT HARRISON HENRY JEFFERSON KENTON LEWIS MASON MEADE NICHOLAS OLDHAM OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON ROWAN SCOTT SHELBYRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MGW TO 25 ESE ZZV TO 20 NW PIT. ..KERR..03/11/26 ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-059-067-081-111-121-112240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE NOBLE WVC009-029-051-069-103-112240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL OHIO WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the Gulf coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...20z update... Storm coverage has been a bit more limited compared to earlier expectations for the OH Valley into the Appalachians, though widely scattered storms persist in an environment with relatively straight hodographs and weak-moderate buoyancy. Some tornado/wind threat persists with perhaps a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes in PA where storms interact with a diffuse north-south baroclinic zone. Otherwise, storm clusters/line segments are more concentrated across middle TN and extreme southeast TX. The TN storms will pose mainly a wind/marginal hail threat for the next few hours, while the southeast TX storms will spread eastward with some uptick in the wind/tornado threat overnight as the upstream midlevel trough begins to accelerate eastward. A separate/small area with some wind/hail threat will be associated with the midlevel cold core later this afternoon across interior southeast TX. ..Thompson.. 03/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/ ...OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening... A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over the upper MS Valley. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into OH/western PA/WV as of midday. Clouds/convection have been prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas immediately south of this morning convection. Additional thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this evening. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight... Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss. Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss. Though regional soundings are limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in advance of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer southwesterly shear, largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also possible. Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm mergers into the band of storms. Otherwise, wind damage will be the main threat with the line segments through tonight.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... The northern extents of both the Critical and Elevated risk areas have been shifted southward to account for recent precipitation and the latest model guidance. Conversely, the risk areas have been expanded eastward as guidance trends more progressive with the dry air mass currently blanketing the central and southern Plains. The new Critical area now encompasses both previous Critical areas with additional portions of the southern/central Plains also now included. While the synoptic pattern provides multiple forcing mechanisms across this broad region, localized areas, particularly in extreme eastern Colorado, may see transient periods where wind and RH thresholds are not perfectly coincident. Across extreme south Texas, the timing of lowest RHs and strongest winds appear out of sync according to latest forecast guidance. Thus, this area doesn't meet elevated combined wind and RH thresholds. Across northern Georgia and the western Carolinas, post-frontal winds will combine with slightly drier air to bring localized elevated wind and RH conditions to the region. However, recent rainfall is a mitigating factor likely keeping forecast guidance from dropping RHs any lower. Both of these areas will be monitored as future forecast guidance becomes available. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday. Lee trough development extending southward from the parent low over the central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region. ...Central Plains... Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of 20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align. ...Southern Plains... A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently pushing across the Ohio Valley and lower MS Valley will migrate off the East Coast and down the FL peninsula through Thursday before stalling over southern FL early Friday morning. A dry/cool air mass overspreading much of the CONUS in the wake of this front will mitigate thunderstorm potential for most areas aside from the southern FL peninsula. Although lapse rates will be very marginal, rich low-level moisture coupled with negligible capping should yield a thermodynamic environment supportive of deep convection. 20-30 knot flow above 6 km may support some degree of storm organization, but very weak low-level winds/convergence should generally limit storm coverage and modulate overall convective intensity. ..Moore.. 03/11/2026Read more