SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...20 Update...
The thunder area was removed from the southern Florida Peninsula as
activity has moved offshore. Thunder chances are expected to be less
than 10% across the CONUS through the end of the period.

..Thornton.. 01/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026/

...Discussion including South Florida...
A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to
multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential
for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern
Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front,
somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air
mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the
thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will
particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and
the front progresses offshore.

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 18 19:51:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 18 19:51:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Surface high pressure settling Ozark Plateau will give rise to
increasing southeasterly flow of 10-15 mph across southern/central
TX. A residual dry air mass in place should result in RH reductions
in the 15-20% range as temperatures quickly rise into the lower 60s
by Sunday afternoon. Brief elevated fire weather concerns are
possible across the Edwards Plateau of TX on Sunday, but potential
for a widespread fire weather threat remains low.

..Williams.. 01/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler
temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather
concerns are forecast at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Dry/stable conditions for lightning-producing convection should
persist across the CONUS through the period. The next in a series of
shortwave troughs should progress from the Canadian Rockies towards
the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys. A weak surface cyclone should similarly
track from the northern High Plains to near Lake MI. This will
support onshore air mass modification along the TX Gulf Coast. Scant
but shallow buoyancy should reach the immediate south TX coast by
12Z Wednesday, with flimsy elevated buoyancy possible northward
across east TX. Given poor-quality thermodynamics and only weak
large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential in TX appears negligible.

..Grams.. 01/18/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. A surface
trough across the Central Plains and surface anticylone over
southern TX will promote dry, west-southwest flow across portions of
the Southern Plains through this afternoon. Clear skies will allow
for more efficient mixing of a very dry, albeit shallow boundary
layer through the afternoon resulting in sustained west-southwest
winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity falling into the 10-20%
range over central/northwestern TX and southern OK. Model guidance
continues to suggest a locally critical fire weather threat evolving
across northwest TX this afternoon, but sustained 20 mph winds
should be transitory limiting a broader impact.

..Williams.. 01/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing
to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support
Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of
Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. 

...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma...
Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and
central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass
characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels
sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated
fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may
occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though
00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained
winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...Discussion including South Florida...
A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to
multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential
for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern
Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front,
somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air
mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the
thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will
particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and
the front progresses offshore.

..Guyer/Moore.. 01/18/2026