
Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Central/Southern Indiana into south central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160007Z - 160100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 01z from portions of central Indiana, south into south central Kentucky. DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line, with embedded bows and circulations, is propagating steadily east toward western Indiana. This LEWP appears to have increased its eastward movement to around 35-40kt, and should exit the current watch into west central Indiana by 01z. In advance of the squall line, a roughly 50mi wide band of weak elevated convection has evolved across southeast Illinois into western Indiana. This activity has struggled to attain intensity, but is likely a reflection of the adjusting lapse rates in response to the strong large-scale ascent that is spreading into this region. New Tornado watch will be issued by 01z. ..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36978684 40108724 39858508 37038492 36978684 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPHRead more

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western
Tennessee...northern Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...
Valid 152343Z - 160145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell
structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern
LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have
been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably
unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells
have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving
north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an
increased hail and tornado risk.
The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing
low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP
forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly
across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours.
The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an
increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to
increase as low-level hodographs enlarge.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32749288 33669283 34609170 35879104 37079033 37558951
37338829 36748767 36438771 36308785 35618809 34758868
33578967 33059097 32739279 32749288
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Texas...central
Louisiana...eastern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 152311Z - 160115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and
intensity this evening. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging
wind, and a couple of tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing along the cold
front moving east across far eastern TX into western LA. Comparison
of 18z to 20z sounding from SHV showed lifting of the MLCIN layer
between 850 and 700mb with the influence of the trough moving
eastward. Though some MLCIN remains across southeast Texas into
central Louisiana, the environment ahead of these storms is
characterized by MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear
around 40-45 kts. Cooling aloft will continue to erode MLCIN through
time this evening. This environment will support line embedded
supercells, capable of damaging wind, large hail, and couple of
tornadoes. Storms to the north have a history of 1-1.5 inch hail and
winds up to 65 mph. A new watch will be needed to cover this threat
over the next couple of hours.
..Thornton/Smith.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30259614 31229551 32779263 32869244 32849229 32679122
32459098 32099109 31719122 31209153 30329184 29879229
29699276 29749570 29949593 30189613 30259614
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SLO TO 35 SSW DEC. ..SPC..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-027-051-121-157-189-160040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE MARION RANDOLPH WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 52
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West-Central Illinois
Southern and Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this afternoon
while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A greater wind threat, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph,
may exist if thunderstorms can form into a line along/ahead of a
cold front over the next several hours. Isolated severe hail may
also occur with the strongest cores.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Alton IL to
40 miles west southwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Gleason
Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Far Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage and
intensity along and ahead of a cold front and dryline this afternoon
into early evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up
to 1-2 inches in diameter, along with some tornado risk. With time,
convection should develop into a squall line with greater threat for
severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph, along with a continued threat
for embedded tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Flippin AR
to 40 miles south southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Gleason
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LFK TO 25 SW SHV TO 10 W ELD TO 15 NW PBF TO 30 ENE LIT TO 25 SW ARG TO 20 WSW POF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..THORNTON..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-025-041-043-069-079-095-139-147-160040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONROE UNION WOODRUFF LAC013-015-027-031-061-081-111-119-160040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC073-347-419-160040-Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 54
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Illinois
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms should pose a threat for
scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes as
it moves quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Springfield IL
to 35 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Gleason
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SLO TO 15 N BMI. ..SPC..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-079-101-113-115- 139-147-159-173-183-160040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 55
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Far Northeast Louisiana
Southeast Missouri
Northern and Central Mississippi
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes
possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An intense squall line is expected to develop and pose a
substantial threat for widespread severe/damaging winds and several
tornadoes this evening as it moves quickly east-northeastward. Peak
gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. Supercells may develop ahead of the
squall line, with a threat for large to very large hail and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF-2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Mount Vernon
IL to 40 miles southeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Gleason
Read more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 15 E POF TO 30 NW CGI TO 10 SW BLV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..THORNTON..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-160040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-160040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITERead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will quickly move east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. Damaging straight-line wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado could accompany bowing segments or inflections within the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Danville IL to 25 miles south southeast of Jackson MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...SmithRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-075-091-105-160040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LIVINGSTON INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089- 091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183- 160040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WABASH WELLS WHITE WHITLEYRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 57
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast into Southwest Louisiana
East Texas
* Effective this Sunday night from 635 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A broken band of severe thunderstorms will continue to
progress east-southeast across the Watch area through the evening.
A few supercells will be capable of a risk for large hail (1 to 2
inches in diameter). A tornado risk may accompany the stronger
supercells or mesovortices as the broken band evolves into a squall
line later this evening. The threat for damaging gusts will
correspondingly increase as the transition to a linear mode occurs.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 60
miles east northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW
55...WW 56...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 30035.
...Smith
Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS which could introduce another cold front into the central and southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain West and central/southern Plains remains very low. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains... Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains... Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. ...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday... Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend. Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits predictability for the weekend time frame. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio Valley/Southeast. ...20Z Update... Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly, higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest... Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period. Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast. Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z). With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm development within the next few hours. General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for several QLCS tornadoes. The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight, a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN. Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. ...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas... Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with no changes.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX. ...Southern and Central Texas... Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning, leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across central/southern TX. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around 15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as portions of western TX where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after multiple days of dry/wind conditions. ...Southern/Central Texas... Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th percentile by D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more