
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over the CONUS through early next week. The combination of an enhanced area of zonal mid-level flow over the Rockies on Day 3/Thursday coupled with a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains will encourage development of a weak lee surface low. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward, reaching the Southern Plains Day 5/Saturday and the Southeast Day 6/Sunday. Another substantial mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore across the Western U.S. late this weekend into early next week. ...Southern High Plains: Day 3/Thursday... Gusty and dry westerly downslope surface winds are expected to develop Day 3/Thursday afternoon across portions of New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. At least a few hours of Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions appear likely amidst critically receptive fuels before a cold front (and associated northerly wind shift) move through the area during the overnight. ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas: Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 5/Saturday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains. While some uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day 2/Wednesday and also Day 5/Saturday and its impact on fuel status, ensemble guidance continues to suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where locally Critical conditions currently appear most likely. Fire weather concerns may linger into Day 6/Sunday, though confidence is currently too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southwest and the Southern/Central High Plains: Day 6/Sunday - Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southwest Day 6/Sunday and the High Plains Day 7/Monday into early next week as the aforementioned secondary trough (and enhanced mid-level flow) overspread the area and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. While fire weather highlights may eventually be needed, increasing model spread reduces confidence which precludes introducing Critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...20Z Update... ...OH Valley into the Mid-South... Recent surface analysis places a low just east of Lake Erie, with an associated cold front extending southwestward from this low through northwest OH, central IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. This cold front will continue to push southeastward through the evening and overnight. Mid 50s dewpoints now reach into central KY, which is likely near the northern extent of these higher dewpoints. Even so, this could be just enough low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy just ahead of the front from central KY into central WV, where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight along and ahead of the front in the Mid-South vicinity. Here, overlap between modest low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and cooling mid-level temperatures will support limited buoyancy. As mentioned in the previous outlook, an isolated strong wind gust or two is possible in both of these areas, but the overall threat of severe storms remains low. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the TX Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau amid continued forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico. Severe hazards are not expected. ...CA... Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated this evening through tonight, mostly after 00Z, as a compact but strong shortwave trough moves into central CA. Gusty winds are possible within the primary frontal band, but organized severe weather is not expected. ..Mosier.. 02/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/ ...OH Valley... An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, the threat of severe storms appears low. ...CA... A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line, but organized severe weather is not anticipated.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A mid-level ridge will build across the southwest into the southern Plains on Thursday. To the northeast of this ridge, surface high pressure will build across the Midwest. The combination of these stabilizing factors, in addition to low-level moisture mostly suppressed into the Gulf, will limit the thunderstorm threat on Thursday. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's (Wednesday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no fire weather highlights needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... An upper-level low will move from the eastern Pacific to the Great Basin on Wednesday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability will develop from central California to the Great Basin with scattered thunderstorm activity likely. The weak instability and shear will preclude any severe weather potential. East of the Rockies, high pressure and cool/dry air will limit overall thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2026Read more