Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains
southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A
cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern
Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F
with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe
threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable
concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current
thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two
areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into
northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A
15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in
later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the
western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal
severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday
across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture
return is forecast to take place over the southern and central
Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be
possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the
afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be
possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any
severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an
upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An
associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of
the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the
trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This
combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered
severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe
threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central
Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the
Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as
the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is
considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this
extended range.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A
severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet
translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains
and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along
the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward
toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be
maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late
afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains
north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move
across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon.
This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over
much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms.
Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet
further south during the late afternoon, which will be more
favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and
central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and
central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early
evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be
strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern
Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong
tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail
and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for
supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend
as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level
jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat
should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as
multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line
segment.

...Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into
the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the
mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward
into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be
favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an
intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under
this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of
large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line,
especially with bowing segments.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...

...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will track southeastward over the
Intermountain West and Four Corners D2/Thursday, with an associated
lee surface cyclone developing on the central High Plains through
the day. The surface cyclone will shift southeastward through the
period, with a sharpening, trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong sustained southwesterly surface
winds and very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the
southern/central High Plains.

...Portions of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado...
Dry, southwesterly downslope flow will increase on D2/Thursday
behind a sharpening dryline across the central/southern High Plains.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado where the best overlap of stronger
sustained surface winds (20-25 mph), low relative humidities
(5-15%), and receptive fuels is expected. Stronger 700 mb winds
coupled with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will also support
sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph along this corridor. Elsewhere
across the central/southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% will support
elevated fire weather concerns across much of New Mexico, southeast
Colorado, far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern
Kansas. The eastern extent of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions will depend on the dryline location, while the western
extent is limited by less receptive fuels.

The dryline will be a focus for D2/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Given lingering
uncertainty regarding dryline placement/movement and the potential
for precipitation from developing convection, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been withheld at this time.

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
central Great Plains today as a more amplified upper-level trough
digs southeastward into the West. At the surface, a nearly
stationary boundary is forecast to extend from west Texas into the
Midwest and then eastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler
temperatures, lighter winds, and modestly increased RH within the
post-frontal air mass will temper fire weather concerns across much
of the central and southern High Plains. A second surface cyclone
shifting southeastward from Alberta into Montana may bring a brief
period of localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High
Plains. Sustained surface winds are forecast to remain light across
any areas that do see RH values of 20% or less, however. Given the
expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger sustained wind,
widespread fire weather concerns are unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...