
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough progressing east across the Southeast while a ridge resides over the Interior West. A cold front will continue to push southeast across the FL Peninsula today with cool/stable conditions accompanying high pressure across the Southeast. Tranquil conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states. ..Smith/Jewell.. 02/05/2026Read more

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential -- especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough. In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.Read more