Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains. This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle. ...Southwest and Plains... A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the area extent is uncertain. More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next week. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
