Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. ...Discussion... Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW values are quite low. Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for severe hail. Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak and sub-severe. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026Read more