Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast. Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and another surface low off the California coast. As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected with this activity. Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2026Read more
