SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.

...20Z Update...
Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper
Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through
parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later
this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually
diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has
encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward.
This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH
VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe
probabilities have been removed with this update.

..Wendt.. 01/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/

...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast.  The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA.  Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. 
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region.  As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border.  A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.  

A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 10 20:01:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 10 20:01:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...Southeast...
An energetic mid-level trough accompanied by a robust surface cold
front will move into the Eastern Seaboard Sunday. Latest model
guidance depicts current band of showers and thunderstorms along the
cold front stretching from the northern Gulf Coast into the
Mid-Atlantic diminishing through tonight into D2/Sunday. A dry,
post-frontal environment with downsloping support from the
Appalachians will encompass the Southeast on Sunday. Northwest winds
of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of 25-35% will allow for elevated
fire weather conditions to impact southeastern Georgia and the
Coastal Plains of the Carolinas Sunday, where precipitation will be
absent or limited.

..Williams.. 01/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/

...Synopsis...
Troughing over the eastern US will continue to intensify as it moves
offshore D2/Sunday. Strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through the
day. Considerable rainfall associated with the trough and an
advancing surface cold front will likely mitigate fire weather
concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic.
However, rain  will be less common over portions of southern
Georgia, the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas and northern Florida.
As the front moves offshore, dry northerly flow is likely with gusts
of 15-20 mph and RH below 35%. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible along the immediate coastal plain. However,
fuels here remain only marginally receptive to fire spread in areas
without recent precipitation. Thus, broader fire-weather concerns
appear unlikely.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm
development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper
shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to
move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts
of southwest TX.  Weak convective showers may accompany both of
these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is
expected to limit lightning potential.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move
across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the
Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night.
The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at
the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the
FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential. 

An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will
move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid
Atlantic through the day. In association with these features,
shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm
potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible
buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated
lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

...Southern Plains...
A dry, post-frontal air mass continues to filter into the Southern
Plains. Sustained north winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) combined
and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support elevated
fire weather conditions across a broad swath of the Southern Plains
through the afternoon. The best alignment of breezy north winds, low
relative humidity and dry fuels will be across south-central TX and
the Edwards Plateau areas, where the lack of recent rainfall events
have contributed to a more receptive fuelscape. Although some
rainfall had fallen across portions of northwestern TX, TX Panhandle
and southwestern OK in recent days, pockets of drier fine fuels that
avoided wetting rainfall could support a locally elevated fire
threat through the afternoon.

..Williams.. 01/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across
the US today and tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward
through the Plains and southeast States with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong high pressure will rapidly build
over the Rockies and western states. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop in the wake of the front, with the driest portions
expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande
Valley. Downslope and gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will
overlap with RH values as low as 15-20% this afternoon. While some
rain has fallen over the eastern portions of south-central TX,
overall fuels remain quite dry. This will promote a few hours of
Elevated fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and
Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will quickly
diminish this evening as winds weaken and colder temperatures settle
into region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will
continue through the early afternoon from the central Gulf Coast
northeastward into the southern Appalachians.

...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast.  The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA.  Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. 
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region.  As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border.  A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.  

A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.

..Smith/Halbert.. 01/10/2026