Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Active and progressive mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave troughing will progress through the Rockies and Plains this weekend with more troughing expected later next week. Fire weather concerns should generally increase for portions of the Southern Plains early next week as stronger southwest flow affects the region. ...Northern Rockies D3-D4... Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible ahead of a northern stream shortwave trough across parts of the northern Rockies D3/Sunday and D4/Monday. With westerly flow expected to increase behind a departing lee low, downslope winds of 15-30 mph are possible. Uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be given the arrival of western troughing and snow. However, some localized fire-weather concerns are possible given ongoing drought and increase in low-level winds, especially D4/Monday over parts of WY and CO. ...Southwest/Southern Plains D4-D7... Increasing mid-level flow over the central Rockies is expected much of next week as the large-scale pattern moves toward more active southern stream flow. A shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies D4/Monday increasing winds across portions of eastern NM and west TX. Episodic troughing and stronger flow aloft will continue through much of the week and into next weekend with an increase in the fire-weather risk given dry fuels and warm temperatures. While some fire-weather risk appears possible, increasing ensemble member spread and uncertainty regarding the northern extent of returning Gulf moisture and precipitation into the southern Plains precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
