Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday...
An increase in severe potential remains evident across the
south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but
uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude
of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding
the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough
that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains
from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat
nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop
late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while
isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized
storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak
until late Wednesday night. 

As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture
and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become
increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead
of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the
southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for
storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a
surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central
Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into
parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday,
though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward
extent. 

Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level
mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread
storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and
the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties
appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest
probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the
likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous
low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks. 

...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday...
Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by
late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into
parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy
will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z
ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains
next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite
large within other extended-range guidance.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of
the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant deep trough are forecast to move
slowly eastward across the Southwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly
east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic. A
surface low initially over the east-central Plains is forecast to
move eastward and weaken, as a trailing cold front stalls over parts
of the Ozarks and southern Plains, before returning northward as a
warm front late in the period. 

...Southern Plains into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across
parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys, which will tend to spread
eastward toward the TN Valley and parts of the Appalachians.
Uncertainties regarding the magnitude of elevated buoyancy will
continue into early D3/Tuesday from D2/Monday, but a few strong
storms capable of small to near-severe hail cannot be ruled out
before the low-level warm-advection regime begins to weaken and
convection moves into a more stable environment. 

Later in the day into Tuesday night, seasonably rich boundary-layer
moisture will stream northward into a larger portion of OK and west
TX, as the initial weak surface boundary effectively becomes a warm
front. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will be
conditionally supportive of organized convection, though most
guidance currently suggests that stronger large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough across the Southwest will
remain west of the expanding buoyancy reservoir through the end of
the period. 

Very isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front
during the afternoon and evening, though any such development may
struggle to intensify in the absence of stronger forcing. A somewhat
greater chance for robust (though likely somewhat elevated) storm
development may evolve late in the period across parts of west TX
into southwest OK, in response to a modestly strengthening low-level
jet. The 16/00Z GFS/RRFS are currently the most aggressive regarding
storm development prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, but if other
guidance trends in that direction, then severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will likely return to parts of the
southern High Plains Monday afternoon with lingering fire weather
concerns possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic. 

...Southern High Plains...
The upper trough currently over southern CA is forecast to
de-amplify as it progresses northeastward into the central Rockies
by Monday evening. Lee troughing will become more pronounced through
Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching wave, resulting in
strengthening winds across much of the Plains. Dry conditions to the
west of the surface trough will likely be exacerbated by increasing
westerly downslope flow, resulting in fairly widespread RH
reductions into the teens to low 20s. Latest ensemble consensus
suggests that 15-20 mph winds are likely across eastern NM into the
TX Panhandle where ERCs range from the 80-90th percentiles.
Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable for at least a few hours Monday afternoon. Similar wind/RH
conditions may emerge across portions of southern CO in the
immediate lee of the Rockies; however, confidence in this potential
is more limited due to spread in wind magnitudes in recent high-res
guidance. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
Northwesterly offshore flow is expected to persist through Monday
afternoon across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, though the
departure of the primary surface low to the northeast and building
high pressure will favor weaker winds compared to today/Sunday.
Regardless, dry conditions will persist with another day of 20-35%
RH minimums expected. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may
develop where winds can reach into the low/mid teens.

..Moore.. 11/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for
portions of central Virginia with more widespread elevated fire
weather conditions likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region as
northwesterly winds increase within a post-frontal regime.
Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Midwest
as an unseasonably dry air mass moves into the region. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
07 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing east across
the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Although light
rain may occur prior to sunrise, most locations are not expected to
receive appreciable rainfall, which will maintain very dry fuel
conditions. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase behind the
frontal passage through mid-afternoon with most guidance suggesting
winds will peak between 15-20 mph across much of the region. Dry air
advecting into the region will promote RH reductions into the 20-35%
range from the Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay area. A 700-500 mb
speed max is forecast to traverse the northern Blue Ridge Mountains
into central VA around peak heating. This will not only regionally
augment winds (which may gust upwards of 35-40 mph), but will
enhance downslope drying and promote a corridor of critical fire
weather conditions. 

...Midwest...
Early-morning surface observations show dry air pushing
southeastward from the upper MS Valley into the Midwest region.
Dewpoints in the teens to low 20s are expected to spread into
eastern IL and IN through peak heating, which will promote RH
reductions into the 20-30% range, and possibly as low as 15% for
some locations. Building surface high pressure will largely limit
wind speeds and negate a more substantial fire weather threat.
However, light fire activity has been noted in recent days owing to
ongoing drought conditions, so localized fire concerns appear
possible where winds can increase to around 10-15 mph.

..Moore.. 11/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday evening into early
Tuesday morning across parts of the central Plains into the Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley. A few strong storms are possible, but
severe-thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
central Plains toward the mid MS Valley through the period. Upstream
of this shortwave, a stronger and more amplified upper trough will
dig southeastward across California. A surface low associated with
the lead shortwave is forecast to move across the central Plains. In
response to this surface low, seasonably rich low-level moisture
will advect northward from TX/LA into parts of OK/AR/MO. 

...Southern/central Plains into parts of the mid MS and OH
Valleys...
Moderate destabilization is expected Monday afternoon from parts of
TX into eastern OK. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized
convection, but there is currently little signal for diurnal storm
development across the warm sector, likely due to lingering capping
and generally weak large-scale ascent (with stronger ascent
displaced to the north). 

Farther north, elevated convection is expected to develop within a
low-level warm-advection regime from parts of the Ozarks into the
mid MS and OH Valleys, mainly during the evening and overnight
hours. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE,
though relatively strong deep-layer flow could support some modest
storm organization. Small to near-severe hail could accompany the
strongest storms. If confidence increases in sufficient
destabilization and robust elevated convection within this regime,
then severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025