MD 2243 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY


Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of
the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 020310Z - 020915Z

SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or
in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across
western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3
AM CST).

DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt
of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the
southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard.  Around 500 mb, the
strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau
through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of
increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to
overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley
late this evening into the overnight hours.  

It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift
maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River. 
This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where
saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.  

Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through
northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below
freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal
wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier
precipitation commences.  As precipitable water content increases to
0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at
least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of
Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas
around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.

..Kerr.. 12/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918
            37308815 38238585 39068358

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida
Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Synopsis...
A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley
into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the
low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL
Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being
absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas
southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours.
Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern
Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches
the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame. 

...FL Panhandle...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start
of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level
warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor
deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to
surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across
northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective
shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally
support a couple transient supercell structures and small line
segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be
possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will
diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest
low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts
northeastward into the afternoon hours. 

Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the
western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late
morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective
shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be
well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that
storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the
weak buoyancy. 

...Outer Banks..
As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the
surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where
ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor
supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple
strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during
the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is
too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 12/02/2025