Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Desert Southwest... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and an associated trough to the west of Baja Calfornia. This disturbance will meander slowly southeast reaching the Baja California/Gulf of California vicinity by the end of the period. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (near -18 deg C at 500 mb) and sufficient moisture will yield weak buoyancy later today across southern AZ. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast mainly for southeast AZ where weak ascent may yield a couple of lightning flashes with deeper convection. Elsewhere across the contiguous United States, quiescent conditions will prevail precluding thunderstorms. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/07/2026Read more