SPC Forecast Products
SPC Feb 21, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Fri, 20 Feb 2026 at 11:38:56 PM CST
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF
STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts,
large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.

...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast...

Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late
this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward
the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast,
the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS
Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary
corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the
southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights
fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures
will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should
begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.

Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over
northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of
low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and
should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of
the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north
of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across
the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew
points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings
suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized
rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be
particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary
concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection
will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest
risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening
hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 21 05:39:01 UTC 2026
Published: Fri, 20 Feb 2026 at 11:38:05 PM CST
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 21 05:39:01 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Feb 21 05:39:01 UTC 2026
Published: Fri, 20 Feb 2026 at 11:38:04 PM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 21 05:39:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Feb 21, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Fri, 20 Feb 2026 at 06:43:53 PM CST
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is advancing east across eastern CO/NM
early this evening. In response, 850mb flow is beginning to increase
across the southern Plains. Latest satellite/radar imagery support
this with weak convection now developing in response to low-level
warm advection across southern OK/AR. Later this evening, lightning
is expected to develop with this activity downstream across the
lower MS Valley, but forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE/lapse rates
will be a bit too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe
hail. As 850mb flow becomes more westerly late tonight, scattered
convection will spread/develop across the Gulf States, especially
along/north of the synoptic front which will be draped from central
MS/AL into SC.

..Darrow.. 02/21/2026

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