MD 0252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY


Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...Central/Southern Indiana into south central
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 160007Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 01z from
portions of central Indiana, south into south central Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line, with embedded bows and
circulations, is propagating steadily east toward western Indiana.
This LEWP appears to have increased its eastward movement to around
35-40kt, and should exit the current watch into west central Indiana
by 01z. In advance of the squall line, a roughly 50mi wide band of
weak elevated convection has evolved across southeast Illinois into
western Indiana. This activity has struggled to attain intensity,
but is likely a reflection of the adjusting lapse rates in response
to the strong large-scale ascent that is spreading into this region.
New Tornado watch will be issued by 01z.

..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36978684 40108724 39858508 37038492 36978684 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH

MD 0251 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 55... FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI


Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western
Tennessee...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

Valid 152343Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell
structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern
LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have
been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably
unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells
have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving
north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an
increased hail and tornado risk. 

The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing
low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP
forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly
across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours.
The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an
increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to
increase as low-level hodographs enlarge.

..Thornton.. 03/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32749288 33669283 34609170 35879104 37079033 37558951
            37338829 36748767 36438771 36308785 35618809 34758868
            33578967 33059097 32739279 32749288 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0250 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EASTERN MISSISSIPPI


Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Texas...central
Louisiana...eastern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 152311Z - 160115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and
intensity this evening. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging
wind, and a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing along the cold
front moving east across far eastern TX into western LA. Comparison
of 18z to 20z sounding from SHV showed lifting of the MLCIN layer
between 850 and 700mb with the influence of the trough moving
eastward. Though some MLCIN remains across southeast Texas into
central Louisiana, the environment ahead of these storms is
characterized by MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear
around 40-45 kts. Cooling aloft will continue to erode MLCIN through
time this evening. This environment will support line embedded
supercells, capable of damaging wind, large hail, and couple of
tornadoes. Storms to the north have a history of 1-1.5 inch hail and
winds up to 65 mph. A new watch will be needed to cover this threat
over the next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30259614 31229551 32779263 32869244 32849229 32679122
            32459098 32099109 31719122 31209153 30329184 29879229
            29699276 29749570 29949593 30189613 30259614 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 0052 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 52

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SLO
TO 35 SSW DEC.

..SPC..03/15/26

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC005-027-051-121-157-189-160040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOND                 CLINTON             FAYETTE             
MARION               RANDOLPH            WASHINGTON          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 52 TORNADO IL MO 151830Z - 160100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 52
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  West-Central Illinois
  Southern and Eastern Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this afternoon
while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A greater wind threat, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph,
may exist if thunderstorms can form into a line along/ahead of a
cold front over the next several hours. Isolated severe hail may
also occur with the strongest cores.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Alton IL to
40 miles west southwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Gleason

WW 53 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 151850Z - 160200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Arkansas
  Northwest Louisiana
  Far Southeast Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage and
intensity along and ahead of a cold front and dryline this afternoon
into early evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up
to 1-2 inches in diameter, along with some tornado risk. With time,
convection should develop into a squall line with greater threat for
severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph, along with a continued threat
for embedded tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Flippin AR
to 40 miles south southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.

...Gleason

WW 0053 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 53

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LFK TO
25 SW SHV TO 10 W ELD TO 15 NW PBF TO 30 ENE LIT TO 25 SW ARG TO
20 WSW POF.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251

..THORNTON..03/15/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC001-011-013-025-041-043-069-079-095-139-147-160040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS             BRADLEY             CALHOUN             
CLEVELAND            DESHA               DREW                
JEFFERSON            LINCOLN             MONROE              
UNION                WOODRUFF            


LAC013-015-027-031-061-081-111-119-160040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE            BOSSIER             CLAIBORNE           
DE SOTO              LINCOLN             RED RIVER           
UNION                WEBSTER             


TXC073-347-419-160040-

WW 54 TORNADO IL 152045Z - 160300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 54
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central Illinois

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms should pose a threat for
scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes as
it moves quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Springfield IL
to 35 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Gleason

WW 0054 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 54

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SLO
TO 15 N BMI.

..SPC..03/15/26

ATTN...WFO...ILX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-079-101-113-115-
139-147-159-173-183-160040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHAMPAIGN            CHRISTIAN           CLARK               
CLAY                 COLES               CRAWFORD            
CUMBERLAND           DE WITT             DOUGLAS             
EDGAR                EFFINGHAM           JASPER              
LAWRENCE             MCLEAN              MACON               
MOULTRIE             PIATT               RICHLAND            
SHELBY               VERMILION           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 55 TORNADO AR IL IN KY LA MO MS TN 152055Z - 160400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 55
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Far Northeast Louisiana
  Southeast Missouri
  Northern and Central Mississippi
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes
    possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...An intense squall line is expected to develop and pose a
substantial threat for widespread severe/damaging winds and several
tornadoes this evening as it moves quickly east-northeastward. Peak
gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. Supercells may develop ahead of the
squall line, with a threat for large to very large hail and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF-2+).

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Mount Vernon
IL to 40 miles southeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Gleason

WW 0055 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 55

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG
TO 15 E POF TO 30 NW CGI TO 10 SW BLV.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251

..THORNTON..03/15/26

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...PAH...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-160040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY               CHICOT              CLAY                
CRAIGHEAD            CRITTENDEN          CROSS               
GREENE               LEE                 MISSISSIPPI         
PHILLIPS             POINSETT            ST. FRANCIS         


ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-160040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER            EDWARDS             FRANKLIN            
GALLATIN             HAMILTON            HARDIN              
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JOHNSON             
MASSAC               PERRY               POPE                
PULASKI              SALINE              UNION               
WABASH               WAYNE               WHITE

WW 56 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 152240Z - 160600Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Illinois
  Northern Indiana
  Southwest Lower Michigan
  Northwest Ohio
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 640 PM
  until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will quickly move
east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. 
Damaging straight-line wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard,
but a brief tornado could accompany bowing segments or inflections
within the squall line.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Danville IL to 25 miles south southeast of Jackson MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW
55...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
24045.

...Smith

WW 0056 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 56

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SPC..03/15/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC053-075-091-105-160040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FORD                 IROQUOIS            KANKAKEE            
LIVINGSTON           


INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089-
091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-
160040-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ALLEN               BENTON              
BLACKFORD            CASS                DE KALB             
ELKHART              FULTON              GRANT               
HUNTINGTON           JASPER              JAY                 
KOSCIUSKO            LAGRANGE            LAKE                
LA PORTE             MARSHALL            MIAMI               
NEWTON               NOBLE               PORTER              
PULASKI              ST. JOSEPH          STARKE              
STEUBEN              WABASH              WELLS               
WHITE                WHITLEY

WW 57 TORNADO LA TX 152335Z - 160500Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 57
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast into Southwest Louisiana
  East Texas

* Effective this Sunday night from 635 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A broken band of severe thunderstorms will continue to
progress east-southeast across the Watch area through the evening. 
A few supercells will be capable of a risk for large hail (1 to 2
inches in diameter).  A tornado risk may accompany the stronger
supercells or mesovortices as the broken band evolves into a squall
line later this evening.  The threat for damaging gusts will
correspondingly increase as the transition to a linear mode occurs.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 60
miles east northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW
55...WW 56...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 30035.

...Smith

WW 0057 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an
upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding
ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to
much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return
to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS
which could introduce another cold front into the central and
southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the
opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain
West and central/southern Plains remains very low.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the
development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central
High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the
Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an
increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and
western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area
was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a
corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big
Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in
RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical
probabilities at this time.

...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing
response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a
multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and
adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some
recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry
conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday
and D6/Friday.

...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but
generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest
will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend.
Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification
and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level
short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could
invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather
concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits
predictability for the weekend time frame.

..Williams.. 03/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.

...20Z Update...
Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across
Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate
and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley
into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is
conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes
still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado
probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly,
higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where
there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of
convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 03/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
Valley/Midwest...
Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.

Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.

General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.

The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...
Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...

Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire
weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on
D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of
surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an
Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX.

...Southern and Central Texas...
Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern
TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and
thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near
and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning,
leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph
and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely
across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels
remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far
southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical
Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across
central/southern TX.

...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure
settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern
NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much
of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds
of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around
15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated
fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as
portions of western TX where dry fuels remain.

..Williams.. 03/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.

...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.

...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...