SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
Florida Peninsula through early evening.

...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.

...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/02/2026

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 2 16:32:04 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Cloud cover is gradually
expanding across the FL Panhandle as a cold front, currently draped
across northern FL and the Gulf Coast, slowly progresses southward
through the afternoon. In southern FL, current surface observations
depict westerly wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values quickly
decreasing as temperatures rise across the interior. Farther north,
a trailing dry cold front beneath a weak surface low is progressing
through eastern MT and northern ND. Mostly clear skies ahead of the
front will promote deeper mixing this afternoon, with surface
observations already depicting RH values declining to 30 percent and
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Behind the front,
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are being
observed with a slight increase of RH. Cloud cover will gradually
expand across the area this afternoon, providing some relief to the
fire environment. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries are
expected, leading to another day of broader fire weather concerns on
Day 2/Sunday.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.

...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.

Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0183 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0183 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 183 TORNADO FL CW 021525Z - 022200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and Central Florida
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
  600 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...A line of storms will move inland across the north-central
Peninsula through the afternoon, with additional strong/severe storm
development possible ahead of it. Damaging winds are expected to be
the most common risk, but a couple of tornadoes could occur.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Saint
Petersburg FL to 25 miles southeast of Daytona Beach FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Guyer

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Northern/Central Florida into far southeast Georgia...
Regional radar imagery shows a broad area of precipitation extending
from the northeast Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing within the southern portion of this
precipitation shield, from the northeast Gulf into central and
eastern FL Panhandle. This region is just downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and in the vicinity of an associated
surface low. Stronger ascent and modest buoyancy is favoring deeper
updrafts across this region compared to areas farther north.

Updrafts in this area have been fairly transient overnight and for
the first few hours this morning, likely resulting from a
combination of modest buoyancy, boundary-parallel deep-layer shear,
and elevated storm structures. Some improvement in storm
organization appears possible over the next few hours as the
low-level flow strengthens and convergence near the surface low
augments large-scale ascent. This better storm organization should
result in stronger updrafts and longer overall updraft persistence,
with an attendant increase in the risk for damaging gusts.
Additionally, there is enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two if surface-based storms can be realized.
Surface-based storms appear most probable over the northwest FL
vicinity and a small 5% tornado probability was delineated to
highlight this potential.

This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #0635.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/02/2026