SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast early Saturday morning.

...Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak
moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will
advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In
response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen
boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak
surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast
overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the
higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal
convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a
couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time
frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should
limit updraft intensity over land areas.

..Weinman.. 12/12/2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 12 16:26:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 12 16:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Breezy and
marginally dry conditions are beginning to develop behind a weak
cold front across portions of western TX. 15-20 mph winds coupled
with RH reductions into the 25-35% range may support a few areas of
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon - mainly along the
I-20 corridor. However, fuels across this region remain only
modestly dry with ERC values near the 60-65th percentiles. As such,
the overall fire weather potential remains too limited for
highlights.

..Moore.. 12/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Cold/continental trajectories especially east of the Rockies will
generally preclude thunderstorm development. Regarding a potential
exception, gradual low-level moisture return will continue to occur
over the western Gulf toward coastal Texas ahead of a low-latitude
trough over northern Mexico. Convection will probably develop and
increase late tonight over the western Gulf, but modest forcing for
ascent and marginal thermodynamic profiles aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential over inland areas of Texas.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/12/2025