SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening
surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be
accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager
moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential. 

Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of
the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will
initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will
accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but
thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability.

..Dean.. 02/22/2026

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 22 18:45:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 22 18:45:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...17z Update...
Minor changes were made to the prior outlook for the latest forecast
trends. Morning obs show the cold front progressing southward across
the FL Peninsula with isolated thunderstorms and some precipitation.
While initial humidity recoveries are excellent (dewpoints in the
70s F) the arrival of a very dry air mass and breezy north winds
later this afternoon will still support some fire-weather conditions
across the northern half of FL today. Breezy winds and poor humidity
recoveries will expand southward into drier fuels, continuing the
elevated fire-weather risk across the southern half of the State
overnight into Monday.

Across the Gulf Coast states, dry offshore flow has commenced in the
wake of the prior cold front. Northerly winds of 10-15, occasionally
gusting to 20 mph, are expected over much of the region and
especially across southern LA and MS. Elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of far Southern TX
and southern LA. Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly in
both areas to where less rainfall and RH below 25% is expected for
much of this afternoon. See the prior outlook for additional
information.

..Lyons.. 02/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of
the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather
conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas,
southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida
peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger
area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to
the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns
elsewhere.

...Mississippi/Louisiana...
While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected
relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far
southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry
and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there
has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest
likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern
Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However,
uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes
additional highlights at this time. 

...Southeast/Florida Peninsula...
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this
afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative
humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of
the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should
serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly
localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were
withheld (though considered). 

...Far Southern Texas...
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will
support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas.
There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with
fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to
wildfire ignition.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England
coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any
remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be
offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and
stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should
preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS. 

Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across
parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should
generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move
from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during
the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper
ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit
thunderstorm potential with this shortwave.

..Dean.. 02/22/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs.  Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula.  Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft.  In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026