
Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Areas affected...eastern OH and western PA/NY
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 171600Z - 172000Z
SUMMARY...Snow squalls are likely to accompany a cold front pushing
east across eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania and
New York through this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has recently increased along a
cold front progressing through north-central/northeast into central
Ohio. Both KLPR and KOSU sampled a visibility reduction to
quarter-mile with gusts of 30 and 31 kts respectively, and KMFD
recently dropped to quarter mile as well. The more organized portion
of the snow squalls will probably be confined closer to Lake Erie,
where stronger low-level convergence is anticipated. Steep low-level
lapse rates along/ahead of the front are the primary driver of a
favorable thermodynamic environment with SPC Mesoscale Analysis
estimates of a 2-4 Snow Squall Parameter. This is expected to shift
east with the front, favoring snow squall production throughout the
afternoon.
..Grams.. 01/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41518163 42288020 42907905 43077855 42927810 42427808
41677831 41237869 40577952 40168084 39988148 39978212
40218248 41518163
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday, and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However, negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm motions should further limit the duration of convection over land. ..Moore.. 01/17/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Central and Southern Texas... Very dry, post-frontal flow from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph) will continue across much central/southern Texas through this evening. Despite the cooler temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s, surface dewpoints in the 0-10F range should yield very low relative humidity below 10% across southern TX by peak afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. These conditions aligned with receptive and drought stressed fuels will promote at least elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southern TX through today. A locally critical fire weather threat still exists where winds of 20 mph materialize. A slight expansion of the Elevated highlights was necessary owing to current surface observations and short term model trends. ...West-Central High Plains... Sustained north-northwest winds of 25-35 mph with localized gusts to 50-55 mph this morning should gradually diminish today across southeastern WY, eastern CO, the NE Panhandle and western Kansas. Although the gusty winds will align with minimum relative humidity of 10-20% this afternoon, cold temperatures with highs in the 20s to low 30s should inhibit ignitions across an otherwise receptive fuelscape. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures, some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Central and Southern Texas... Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15% will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions, Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical conditions possible with the most intense surface winds. ...West-Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low 30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 01/17/2026Read more