MD 0130 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL KS


Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX/OK Panhandles...western into
north-central OK...south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040527Z - 040800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and perhaps locally
gusty winds are possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed across parts
of the TX Panhandle, with increasing midlevel cumulus noted into far
northwest OK. A further increase in elevated convection is expected
with time overnight, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently
over the central/southern Rockies begins to impinge upon a reservoir
of moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg). 

Steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in regional 00Z soundings) and
strong mid/upper-level flow (with effective shear of near/above 40
kt) are favorable for organized elevated storms with large hail,
potentially into the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range. However, recent
CAM guidance generally depicts a transition to a cluster or linear
mode with time, which could temper the magnitude and coverage of the
hail threat to some extent. Also, despite a substantial cool/stable
near-surface layer to the north of an advancing cold front, locally
gusty surface winds cannot be ruled out if any substantial
clustering or upscale growth occurs.

..Dean/Mosier.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34269994 34520122 34620239 35670160 36210088 37469902
            37749750 37659652 37449606 36889643 36329688 35229797
            34289978 34269994 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

A compact upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the
central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley today and tonight. As this
occurs, a swath of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the southern Plains to the OH Valley. Height
falls will remain modest with this system, resulting in on a weak
surface wave migrating northeast along a quasi-stationary baroclinic
zone/surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of the front,
southerly return flow will support dewpoints climbing into the low
60s F. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around
7-8 C/km will foster MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg
(possibly higher toward North TX where stronger heating is
expecting).

Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized
convection. However, storm mode may tend to be somewhat messy given
broad ascent within the warm advection regime near the surface
boundary. Additionally, morning convection and cloudiness could
hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization. Nevertheless, a
broad area of severe storm potential exists. First with elevated
convection this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into
MO and southern IL. By afternoon, surface-based convection will be
more likely closer to the surface front. A mix of supercells and
clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Where stronger heating
occurs, some wind damaging potential will also materialize within
steepened low-level lapse rates. A low-end tornado risk will also
accompany supercells near the surface boundary, especially where
stronger heating can occur.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 03/04/2026