SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A potent upper trough will dig southward across the Rockies on
Saturday, emerging over the northern Plains to southern Rockies by
Sunday morning. In response to sharp height falls, a deepening
surface cyclone over the central High Plains will develop eastward
through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower MO Valley
Sunday morning. A prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will
result in only modest moisture return northward across the
south-central U.S., with any deeper boundary-layer moisture
remaining mostly offshore, and across south TX. Given this dry
airmass ahead of the surface low and associated trailing cold front
moving across the Plains, little instability is forecast and
thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday across much of the
warm sector over the south-central U.S. 

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south FL where a
seasonally warm/moist and unstable airmass will reside. Large-scale
ascent will remain nebulous, but isolated thunderstorms could
develop along the sea breeze across the southwest Peninsula. Weak
vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

WW 49 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 120430Z - 121200Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 49
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern and Eastern Alabama
  Florida Panhandle
  Western and Central Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms with embedded
cells and bowing segments will continue east across the Watch during
the overnight and into the early morning.  Low to mid-level flow is
forecast to strengthen coincident with gradual moistening and
destabilization of the airmass.  The environment will support a
continuation of storm organization and an accompanying threat for
scattered damaging wind gusts and a tornado risk with the more
intense embedded cells within the line.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of La Grange GA to
45 miles southeast of Pensacola FL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Smith

WW 0049 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 49

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MOB TO
25 WSW GZH TO 15 WNW MGM TO 40 SSW ANB TO 10 NE ANB.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228

..DEAN..03/12/26

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC003-005-011-013-017-031-035-039-041-045-051-053-061-067-069-
081-085-087-101-109-111-113-123-120740-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN              BARBOUR             BULLOCK             
BUTLER               CHAMBERS            COFFEE              
CONECUH              COVINGTON           CRENSHAW            
DALE                 ELMORE              ESCAMBIA            
GENEVA               HENRY               HOUSTON             
LEE                  LOWNDES             MACON               
MONTGOMERY           PIKE                RANDOLPH            
RUSSELL              TALLAPOOSA          


FLC005-013-033-039-045-059-063-077-091-113-131-133-120740-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY                  CALHOUN             ESCAMBIA            
GADSDEN              GULF                HOLMES

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central
and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing
transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface.
Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is
expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical
conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in
the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes
Critical highlights at this time.

..Halbert.. 03/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and
deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt
mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper
Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy
conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains.

...Central and Southern Great Plains...
Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central
and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope
component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with
winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern
portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily
across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these
stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity
(25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall.
In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH
but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10%
relative humidity and critically dry fuels.

..Halbert.. 03/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

WW 0048 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 48

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM
TO 40 N BVE TO 25 NE MOB TO 30 W GZH TO 20 S SEM TO 40 NNW MGM.

..DEAN..03/12/26

ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC075-120740-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

PLAQUEMINES          


GMZ532-536-538-632-120740-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

MISSISSIPPI SOUND 

CHANDELEUR SOUND 

BRETON SOUND 

MISSISSIPPI SOUND 

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

A diffuse surface boundary will reside across central FL on Friday.
To the south of the boundary, a seasonally warm and moist airmass
will be in place. This will support modest destabilization during
the afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly across
south FL. Poor lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and a lack of
forcing for ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon.
A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity.

Southeast: A well-developed squall line has evolved ahead of a
pronounced low-latitude short-wave trough. This line of convection
currently extends across the central Gulf states and is advancing
steadily east in line with latest model guidance. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a short wave that is becoming a bit more
negative-tilt as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This feature
will eject into AL by the start of the day1 period with substantial
midlevel height falls forecast across much of the Southeast early in
the period. Upper 60s to lower 70s surface dew points have returned
inland across the FL Panhandle and southern AL, and a narrow wedge
of modified Gulf air should be in place across the eastern FL
Panhandle into extreme southwest GA at sunrise. Current trends
suggest the leading edge of strong/severe convection will propagate
into this portion of the Southeast around 12z. Strong deep-layer
shear favors organized updrafts and given the large-scale support
ahead of the trough, activity should remain organized at the start
of the period. Some consideration was given to increasing severe
probabilities for a narrow wedge immediately ahead of the front for
early in the period. If the squall line continues severe this may be
warranted at 13z. Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are
the expected hazards.

Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop along the
progressive front as it spreads across portions of the Carolinas.
Severe threat is primarily before 18z, as the cold front will surge
off the Carolina coast by this time.


Northern Plains: Strong midlevel jet will dig southeast across MT
into SD with 500mb speeds expected in excess of 120kt into the
northern High Plains. AB clipper will dig southeast into the upper
Red River region by late afternoon and northwesterly flow will
strengthen across this region as the cyclone shifts east. Forecast
soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south of the front
across the northern Plains such that shallow convection is expected
to develop, along with the threat of some lightning. While strong
winds will likely develop across eastern MT into SD as lapse rates
steepen, thunderstorms are not expected to be the primary driver of
severe wind gusts. For this reason severe probabilities will not be
introduced.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 03/12/2026