
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Gulf Coast States... An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States... Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day 6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun. Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large spread among guidance.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, approaching the Rio Grand Valley in western TX by early Tuesday. Downstream, upper riding is forecast across the Gulf Basin. As a surface lee trough develops across the central/southern Plains, southerly low-level flow will allow for modified Gulf moisture to spread across southern/southeastern portions of TX toward the Lower MS Valley (dewpoints in the 40s-50s F). Some scant elevated instability may develop across the TX Big Bend vicinity during the afternoon into evening as meager midlevel cooling occurs in proximity to the upper trough over Mexico. However, thunderstorm potential appears low given poor moisture further west across TX and warm 850-700 mb temperatures. ..Leitman.. 02/07/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable moisture return likely over the southern Plains. A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes evident in later guidance. Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains region. Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical highlights appear warranted. Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the southern High Plains. Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS. RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...AZ... Forecast guidance has trended further south with a closed upper low and attendant shortwave trough moving over northwest Mexico on Sunday. As a result, forecast thermodynamic profiles show a somewhat drier profile, especially in the midlevels. While cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates and development of minor elevated instability, thunderstorm potential appears to be somewhat lower compared to this time yesterday. Will maintain the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across southeast AZ for now, but this may be removed in subsequent outlooks if current trends are maintained. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/07/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...AZ/NM... A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to be below 10 percent. In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500 J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more aggressive spectrum. ..Grams.. 02/07/2026Read more