SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas
south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday,
accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the
southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), models
indicate that a vigorous short wave perturbation will undergo
further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast during this period.  It appears that
this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and
force an initially significant downstream trough inland across
California and much of the Great Basin, into the northern Rockies
Monday night.  As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also
forecast to develop inland, centered near the northern Rockies
through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday.

Guidance indicates that the lead perturbation will be accompanied by
an intense mid/upper jet (including a 100-110+ kt maximum around 500
mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four
Corners.  Forcing associated with this feature may be supporting
modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the
beginning of the period.  The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland south of the San Francisco Bay
vicinity during the day Monday.

...Southern California coast...
It appears that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead
of the front trailing the occluding surface low, will gradually
contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening
convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas
south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps
beginning as early as late Monday morning.  Aided by mid/upper
forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, NAM forecast
soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of
thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear.  Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the
850 mb level, with sizable low-level hodographs developing, aided by
orography, south of the western Transverse Ranges into the Los
Angeles Basin, potentially contributing to an environment conducive
to supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to
potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 08:26:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 14 08:26:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to be over the southern
Rockies during the day on Sunday with a weak jet max near the apex
of the ridge over northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This
should result in dry, breezy conditions across parts of the central
and northern High Plains and downslope flow along the Front Range in
Colorado. RH near 15-20% is expected along in the presence of winds
near 15-20 mph with localized higher winds possible near the
mountainous terrain. These factors along with dry fuels in the area
prompted the addition of an Elevated area across portions of the
central and northern High Plains. Precipitation is expected across
parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado, with the much of
the wetting rains expected to remain south of the Elevated risk
area. However, if more or less rain falls than expected, adjustments
may be needed in this area.

..Supinie.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions
of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the
Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range
with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some
uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall
fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry
fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east,
elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region.

..Supinie.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late Sunday afternoon into
early evening across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern
Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple
of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.

...Discussion...
Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, it still
appears that a prominent blocking ridge centered over the
mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W) may undergo further amplification
toward the higher latitudes, across and north-northwest of the
Aleutians in mid/upper levels through this period.  As
this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs
near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level
trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is
forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast.  It
appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the
base of this feature will support modest renewed surface
cyclogenesis, but this is generally forecast to occur and remain
offshore of central and southern California coastal areas through
12Z Monday, as an initial occluding cyclone weakens to the north and
northwest.

Downstream, it appears that flow across the Rockies into the
western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments
within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.
In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden
eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi
Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing
into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Sunday night. 

Spread persists within/among the various model output concerning
this troughing.  In general, guidance suggests that an embedded
mid-level cyclonic circulation and associated surface cyclone will
tend to weaken by the time it progresses offshore by late Sunday
night.  However, at least some guidance, including the NAM and Rapid
Refresh, appear to maintain a stronger mid-level perturbation across
the eastern Gulf Coast states through the day Sunday.

...Eastern Gulf States...
Questions remain concerning the extent to which thermodynamic
profiles may be conducive to continuing severe weather potential, in
association with an initial line of convection which may be in the
process of spreading into Alabama and offshore of the southeastern
Louisiana coast at the outset of the period.  Moist adiabatic or
more stable near surface lapse rates and weak CAPE, particularly
inland of coastal areas, still seem likely to limit the risk for
severe hail, damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes at least into
early afternoon, as activity progresses eastward.

Through mid to late afternoon, it is appearing increasingly probable
that a belt of 40-50+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in
the 850-700 mb layer will overspread the northern Florida/southern
Georgia vicinity.  As this occurs, forecast soundings from the
latest Rapid Refresh and NAM suggest that this may be accompanied by
rapidly moistening and destabilizing thermodynamic profiles rooted
within the boundary layer, coincident with low-level hodographs
becoming rather large and clockwise curved, in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear.  It appears that this environment may
contribute to a re-intensification of the convective line, with
embedded supercells and perhaps preceded by discrete supercell
development.  As this activity tends to propagate eastward toward
the coast into early evening, it may be accompanied by damaging wind
gusts and a risk for tornadoes, including potential for a strong
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley...
Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of
west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably
remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe
hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly
buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the
afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution
into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied
regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much
of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated
severe threat. 

Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response
near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more
organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely
to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley
overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with
eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH
will support development of one or more organized bowing segments,
with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in
tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded
mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf
Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS. 

Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the
stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm
sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief
tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of
the period.

..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026