SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 26 11:54:02 UTC 2026
Published: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 05:53:05 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 26 11:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Feb 26 11:54:02 UTC 2026
Published: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 05:53:04 AM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 26 11:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Feb 26, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Published: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 03:58:55 AM CST
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will
take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest
shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West.
Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it
remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the
period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern
extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3.
Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low
confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture
recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the
upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from
northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the
shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit
the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble
guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an
amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the
timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains
remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains
early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a
northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this
trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of
the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach
the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more
variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second
trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough,
with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave
troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These
discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and
magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing
low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated
cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat
should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the
specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent
of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of
the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the
details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any
specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and
Thursday at this time.

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SPC Feb 26, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 02:31:58 AM CST
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
early Sunday morning.

... Discussion ...

A low-amplitude ridge across the Great Basin/Southwest and broad
troughing across the eastern US will result in a continuation of the
persistent northwest flow regime across the central US. To the west,
moist southwesterly flow across northern California and southern
Oregon will slowly shift south as a Pacific low approaches the
coast.

At the surface, a weak front will sag south across the Florida
peninsula, while a return to southerly winds across the southern
Plains will initiate low-level moisture return into Oklahoma.
Coincident, an arctic front will push south through the central
Plains into the southern Plains as an arctic high builds into the
upper Midwest.

... Florida Peninsula ...

A remnant frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida
peninsula, where conditions will remain favorable for at least
isolated thunderstorms. To the south of the front, surface
temperatures should warm into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs with
surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid-60Fs. This should yield MUCAPE
between 1000-1500 J/kg.

While forecast hodographs are expected to lengthen as compared to
the prior day, supporting some storm organization, several limiting
factors exist. Weak mid-level lapse rates and poor low-level
convergence cast doubt on the overall coverage of thunderstorm
development. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest subsidence
across portions of the peninsula during peak heating, which would
further limit convective development.

... Northern California and Southern Oregon ...

Moist southwesterly advection will increase/persist ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough. Although instability is rather limited,
it does appear to be non-zero. The combination of a moistening
troposphere, increased ascent with the approaching trough, and
non-zero instability may support a couple of thunderstorms.

... Southern Plains ...

Moist warm-air advection is anticipated to become established
Saturday night as a southerly low-level jet develops across the
Plains. Increasing moisture return will drive surface dewpoints
perhaps as high as the upper-50Fs or even low-60Fs. As the arctic
front slows and encounters this moistening airmass, elevated
thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm-air advection
regime.

Kinematic profiles will feature very long hodographs and would
support updraft organization with potential for at least marginally
severe hail. However, this threat is highly conditioned on the
quality and magnitude of the moisture return. At this time will
defer the introduction of hail probabilities to subsequent outlooks.
However, if upper-50F dewpoints are realized, enough elevated
instability may develop to support the introduction of hail
probabilities at a later time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 02:03:26 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

...Synopsis...
...Portions of South-Central Texas...
A weak, dry cold front will bring RH values of 10-20% to portions of
south-central Texas this afternoon as a modest surface low shifts
south and east across Texas. A moderately strong pressure gradient
on the western/southwestern periphery of the low will support
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in
terrain-favored areas). With warm, dry antecedent conditions
yielding receptive fine fuels, this combination of winds and RH will
support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
A low pressure system pushing eastward across southern Canada today
will couple with building high pressure across portions of western
Wyoming and northwestern Colorado to yield a strengthening
cross-terrain surface pressure gradient over portions of the Central
Rockies. This setup will favor dry, northwesterly downslope winds of
15-25 mph with locally higher gusts and RH values of 10-20% atop
receptive fuels. These conditions will support Elevated fire weather
conditions from portions of northeastern New Mexico northward to
southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.

...Central and Southeastern Montana...
Similar to areas farther south across the central High Plains, a
strong, cross-terrain surface pressure gradient will support at
least a few hours of strong downslope winds. However, given recent
light precipitation and forecast RH values of 20-30%, any elevated
fire weather concerns are expected to remain local.

..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 01:51:26 AM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
...Portions of eastern and southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday as strong mid-level flow and a 40-kt northwesterly 700 mb jet
will support strong northwesterly downslope winds in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Guidance is in generally good agreement regarding
20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) overlapping RH values of
15-20%. Some guidance indicates even lower RH values of 10-15%
across this area, but uncertainty regarding how low RH values will
drop precludes the addition of a Critical area at this time.

...Portions of central and east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are expected to be more common from
northeastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico. Winds are
expected to remain generally light across this region, with the
exception being across portions of central into east-central New
Mexico where a belt of modest northwesterly mid-level flow is
expected to support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia
Manzano Mountains. Elevated highlights have been added where
sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher)
are expected to overlap RH values of 10-20% Friday afternoon.

..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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