SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/

...Synopsis...
A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great
Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the
Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight. 
The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the
cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak
forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional
12z soundings.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and
buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast.  A separate area of
sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures
around 600 mb.

A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will
spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds,
but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely. 
Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern
Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient
for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the
threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area.

Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX
through about midday until the cold front moves southward into
Mexico.

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 26 19:40:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 26 19:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward
and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over
the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west
deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states
deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western
KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep
southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern
Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.

...Central TX into southeastern OK...
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly
winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the
western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern
OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool
in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings
show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the
apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough
moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the
northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from
central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western
Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy
is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow
aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the
potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across
TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a
sustained severe risk is low.

..Lyons.. 11/26/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

An Elevated area was added for portions of southeast Georgia and
north/central Florida as dry/breezy conditions are expected behind a
cold front. Northwest sustained winds of 8-15 mph with gusts of
15-25 mph and minimum RH of 15-30% are expected across these areas
tomorrow. Some areas will have elevated fire weather conditions
beginning mid/late morning and lasting through the afternoon.
Confidence is high for RH to be low enough, but confidence is lower
regarding the coverage of sustained 10-15 mph winds. Additionally,
isolated portions of the Elevated area received rain today with
isolated showers and thunderstorms likely to continue moving
east-southeast into the evening across portions of the Elevated
area. This may help mitigate fuel concerns, but several RAWS in/near
the Elevated area are forecast to have near daily record high ERC
values tomorrow. Stronger winds are likely in the lee of the
southern Appalachians and in the vicinity of the Piedmont, but
higher RH and colder temperatures will help mitigate and thus
preclude a risk area.

..Nauslar.. 11/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will likely remain limited for Thursday. Widespread
rain and snowfall across the Midwest and the southern CONUS along
with weak winds across the West will mitigate fire weather concerns
for large portions of the country. Dry conditions are expected
across southern GA into the FL Peninsula in the wake of a cold
frontal passage late Wednesday into early Thursday. Drier solutions
hint that RH reductions into the 25-35% range are possible along
with 10-15 mph winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may improve fuel
moisture across a region with already modest ERC values (between the
50-70th percentiles). As such, highlights are withheld for this
outlook, though fuel trends will be monitored. Breezy offshore winds
along the southern CA coast early Thursday are expected to abate
through the day as the pressure gradient weakens, but a few hours of
localized elevated conditions appear possible between 12-18 UTC.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper low over the eastern third of US is forecast to deepen
considerable Thursday as a large ridge also intensifies over the
central and western parts of the country. A weak secondary shortwave
trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest behind the
building ridge. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore over
south FL with strong high pressure building behind it. This will
force offshore flow over much of the US. The one exception will be
the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening where
isolated thunderstorms are possible before the front clears the
coast. Elsewhere, sporadic lightning is possible in the lee of the
Great Lakes, but coverage should be minimal. No severe weather is
expected.

..Lyons.. 11/26/2025

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great
Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the
Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight. 
The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the
cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak
forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional
12z soundings.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and
buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast.  A separate area of
sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures
around 600 mb.

A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will
spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds,
but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely. 
Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern
Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient
for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the
threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area.

Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX
through about midday until the cold front moves southward into
Mexico.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/26/2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.

..Nauslar.. 11/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the
country. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS along with
snowfall and cold temperatures across the Plains/Midwest will negate
fire weather concerns for much of the country. Dry conditions will
persist across parts of the Southeast, but rain chances may improve
soil moisture over the next 24 hours. Surface observations along the
southern CA coast show winds beginning to increase to 15-25 mph
within the coastal terrain as an offshore pressure gradient becomes
established. This gradient will likely peak this morning with
pockets of 20-25 mph sustained winds likely for wind-prone
locations. Downslope warming/drying may support transient elevated
conditions, but ERCs remain depressed after widespread rainfall in
recent weeks, which should limit fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...