SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...Synopsis...
A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains
as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX
Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast
KS. 

...Southern Plains...
Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains
with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour
observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High
Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already
observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust
low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds
are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the
surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak
overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon.
Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the
development of critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian
Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to
the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east
into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and
southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic
guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under
the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph
possible along/off the Caprock in western TX.

00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS
sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%.
Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full
insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will
promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions
hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible -
especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel
guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area
with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the
KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently
been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically
low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern
Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather
threat. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening
lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast
OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water
content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial
storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and
support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of
fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts
are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire
weather conditions. 

...Midwest...
Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through
the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite
increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote
RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs
are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal
rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a
wind-driven threat.

..Moore.. 03/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 14 06:09:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 14 06:09:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf
Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on
Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and
scattered large hail are likely.

...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday...
...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern
Appalachians/Georgia...
At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will
translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough
moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will
contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of
the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late
morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and
western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly
due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer
shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat
are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the
afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley.

The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move
across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to
late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating.
Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central
Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500
m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms,
with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several
tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by
mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple
long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado
threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening,
with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle
Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into
a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind
gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected
to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern
Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue
into the overnight.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves
into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system,
southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of
rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward
into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely
range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a
cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio
valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage,
isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the
wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass
over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected
by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the
exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and
lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be
possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes,
wind damage and hail.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including
portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could
be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph,
and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.

...Discussion...

Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the
southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to
advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed
max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to
near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to
near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data
suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently
spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense
12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread
across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the
aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a
pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing
from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z.

Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and
convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm
into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low,
SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily
develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the
efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this
convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface,
and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts
with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds
likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should
organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the
afternoon/evening hours.

Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across
eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher
boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle
MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is
supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max,
with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as
the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of
convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection
with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern
MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with
these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce
strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail.

Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced
by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so,
isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced
environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025