SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 17:28:02 UTC 2026
Published: Wed, 21 Jan 2026 at 11:27:05 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 17:28:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 17:28:02 UTC 2026
Published: Wed, 21 Jan 2026 at 11:27:05 AM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 17:28:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Jan 21, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Wed, 21 Jan 2026 at 11:06:36 AM CST
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern
Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development
appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic
latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border,
across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and
contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing
across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle
Atlantic Seaboard.  Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its
wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold
surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the
middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday
night.

It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and
perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of
the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains.  Another is
expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern
Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to
come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the
mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific.

Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement
concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of
the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast.  It is becoming
more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures
associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally
remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland
across northern Baja after 12Z Friday.

...Southern California...
Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures
at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb.  However, based on
the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak
destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm
development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal
areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography
near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges.  Certainty does
not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but
this will continue to be monitored.

...Gulf Coast States...
Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of
both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly
modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the
risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday
through Thursday night.  The primary exception still appears near
southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing
boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing
surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by
forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical
westerlies.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Wed, 21 Jan 2026 at 10:52:26 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Enhanced northwesterly
flow aloft and associated lee surface troughing in the central High
Plains will support breezy west-northwest winds across southeast WY,
southwest NE, and northeast CO, but limited RH reductions to around
20 percent, cooler temperatures and cloud cover should mitigate a
broader fire weather threat today. Farther south, brief and
localized elevated fire weather conditions promoted by dry,
downslope flow are still expected in favored terrain along the CO
Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Although relative
humidity in the single digits will be present, a more expansive
alignment of west winds of 15-20 mph and receptive fuels should
remain limited.

..Williams.. 01/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/

...Synopsis...
A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region.
Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly
surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated
fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE,
and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and
temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front.

Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee
troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally
dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and
Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Jan 21, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Wed, 21 Jan 2026 at 10:20:53 AM CST
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.

...ArkLaTex Region...
The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain
fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today.  A
surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and
eventually into MS.  The air mass ahead of the front is moderately
moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg.  This will result in
occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are
anticipated.

...South FL...
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf
and approach FL late tonight.  This will result in an increase in
the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after
midnight.

..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026

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