Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most. On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.Read more
