SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low
pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly
low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow
for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the
lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain
offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with
meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any
thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the
western Gulf.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy
northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida
Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized
wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak
for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this
may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field
becomes evident.

..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A
cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS,
with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into
portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern
has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will
continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter,
precluding the need to include any areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into
the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop
over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper
shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK.
Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response,
but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent
modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a
cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS,
precluding thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2026