
Mesoscale Discussion 0589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...from southern Ohio across Kentucky and into Middle
to western Tennessee
Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 165...167...
Valid 280600Z - 280800Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 165, 167 continues.
SUMMARY...A risk of tornadoes persist from northeast Arkansas into
Middle Tennessee and western Kentucky, with transition to damaging
wind into eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio.
DISCUSSION...A linear structure with damaging gusts and QLCS tornado
risk currently extends from the OH/KY border southwestward across
much of northern Kentucky. Instability drops off rapidly with
eastward extent, and the need for additional watches there is
uncertain.
Farther southwest, supercells are ongoing over much of Middle TN,
near the eastern edge of the stronger instability. Shear remains
quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes with effective values
over 400-500 m2/s2. The tornado risk may extend a bit outside/east
of TOR #0167, and a local expansion may be needed.
Otherwise, the strongest combination of instability currently
extends from far western KY/TN into AR. Although these cells have
generally merged into a line, periodic supercell tornado risk will
remain possible, especially with any rightward moving embedded
cells.
..Jewell.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35348676 35288841 35159139 35549157 35938991 35988918
36428824 37208796 37488695 38248462 38448434 38878410
39038345 38738270 37928287 37538325 36048567 35348676
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic. ...Discussion... Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion. A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region. The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within the guidance concerning this evolution. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast... Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states, conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday. Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with potential to produce severe hail and wind. ...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S. today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day. However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime, supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely, especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN Valley. ...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley... A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between 12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states. Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains, promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS, accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley. ...Portions of central into southern TX... Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that can initiate, mature, and sustain itself should be supercellular in nature, accompanied by a severe hail threat. Any instance of hail with these storms may include stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Since a second, low-amplitude mid-level impulse will overspread western and central TX toward the end of the period, isolated supercell initiation will be possible across portions of central into southwestern TX late this afternoon into early (12Z) Wednesday morning. ..Squitieri/Moore.. 04/28/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon. Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on Wednesday. ...Southwest... Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Georgia and northern Florida... Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and rainfall amounts. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western VT amid a very dry airmass. ...Southern Plains... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires. More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. ...Upstate New York and Western Vermont... As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across upstate NY and western VT. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Northwestern Alabama Far Northeastern Arkansas Southern Illinois Far Southwestern Indiana Western Kentucky Far Southeastern Missouri Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 945 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is expected to continue eastward/southeastward into the Lower OH and Mid MS Valleys, and Mid-South over the next few hours. Strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes are possible within this line. Additional more discrete storms are possible across northern MS and into far northwest AL. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible with any discrete storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 164...WW 165...WW 166... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...MosierRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ARG TO 40 WNW DYR TO 20 NNW DYR TO 30 SW PAH TO 10 N PAH TO 10 NNE OWB TO 35 NE OWB. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-280640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE ARC031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-280640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC127-280640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MASSACRead more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 835 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Indiana North-Central Kentucky Far Western Ohio * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 835 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail will continue in the vicinity of the Ohio River across far southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky. Additionally, the line of storms approaching Indiana from the west is expected to continue quickly eastward. Damaging gusts are possible within this line. There is also a low-probability risk for a brief tornado within the line as it moves eastward across Indiana and eventually into far western Ohio. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Lafayette IN to 35 miles southeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...WW 163...WW 164... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...MosierRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OWB TO 15 WNW SDF TO 35 NE SDF TO 35 SW LUK TO 20 WNW LUK TO 25 S DAY. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC043-061-155-280640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD HARRISON SWITZERLAND KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049- 053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111- 113-117-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-187- 191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-280640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK HARDINRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FSM TO 15 E FLP TO 35 ESE UNO. ..LEITMAN..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-045-051-059-063-065-067-075-083-085-095-097-105-113- 115-117-119-121-125-127-135-137-141-145-147-149-280540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Arkansas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 820 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening across northern and central Arkansas. A strongly unstable airmass is in place, with strong deep-layer vertical shear over the region as well. The environmental conditions will support the development of supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and tornadoes. Strengthening low-level flow over the next few hours could result in an environment that supports strong to intense tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 35 miles south southwest of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...MosierRead more

STATUS REPORT ON WW 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE GYI TO 30 NNE PRX TO 10 ENE HRO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 ..MOORE..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-133-280340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER OKC089-280340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN TXC037-063-067-085-113-119-139-147-159-183-203-213-223-231-257- 277-315-343-379-387-397-423-439-449-459-467-499-280340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARERead more