Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the
work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave
and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front
associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push
south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the
eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds
aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe
thunderstorms for the early portion of next week. 

...D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains...
The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support
steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into
the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support
a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which
should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg
across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late
afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm
development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push
southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear
vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially
discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening
hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range
guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective
environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of
both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a
severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and
evening.

...D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley...
Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates
northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday.
Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold
front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH
Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest
few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support
some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to
show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the
front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which
will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe
threat.

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 31 08:54:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 31 08:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions
of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon. The
primary hazard will be severe gusts, but a tornado or two will also
be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it accelerates
northeastward towards the upper MS Valley in tandem with an upper
trough through the day Thursday. Residual thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing across the Ozarks and will track northeast within a
strengthening wind field. Re-intensification appears likely by
mid-afternoon from lower MI southwestward into IL and IN. Additional
thunderstorm development is anticipated along a trailing cold front
across the mid-MS Valley through the afternoon. Elsewhere, more
loosely organized convection is expected across the lower MS Valley
and along the Appalachians. 

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A combination of northward moisture advection and diurnal heating
will likely support a re-intensification of residual convection
emanating out of MO by mid-afternoon. Winds through the 925-850 mb
layer are forecast to increase to 45-55 knots through the day, which
will support organized convective lines with an attendant threat for
damaging/severe gusts. Additionally, forecast soundings generally
depict strong veering above 1 km AGL, which coupled with hodograph
elongation through the lowest 1-3 km, will support effective SRH
values on the order of 250-350 m2/s2 and a tornado threat with the
more intense/robust lines. That said, the degree of destabilization
ahead of this activity remains uncertain with guidance generally
depicting MLCAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg. While somewhat
meager, the strong flow fields will likely compensate and support a
severe wind threat. 15% probabilities were introduced from eastern
IL northeastward into MI where confidence in the overlap of strong
low-level flow and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg is highest. 

Further to the west, additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated along the primary synoptic cold front across the
mid/upper MS Valley. As with the activity further east, this
convection will develop within a modestly buoyant, but strongly
sheared environment that should favor a damaging wind threat.
Confidence in destabilization is somewhat more limited owing to
uncertainty on how quickly early-morning showers/thunderstorms will
exit the region and allow for adequate diurnal destabilization.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow
(Wednesday), resulting in rapid surface low development across the
central Plains. Strong gradient flow will support widespread 20-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds west of a dryline. While
Critical highlights were considered, widespread cloudiness will
dampen boundary-layer mixing to a degree, with RH expected to stay
above Critical thresholds (i.e. 20-25 percent RH). Given the
presence of dry fuels and stronger winds, Elevated highlights have
been introduced.

..Squitieri.. 03/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies today,
supporting surface low development along the TX Panhandle/OK border.
Dry downslope flow will occur along the southern High Plains,
resulting 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH, warranting Elevated highlights. Isolated high-based
thunderstorms may also develop ahead of a frontal boundary atop a
dry boundary layer and receptive fuels. Given the potential for
lightning induced ignitions with these storms, as well as the
potential for ignition exacerbation from erratic thunderstorm wind
gusts, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added.

..Squitieri.. 03/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be
draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will
traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the
southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper
wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western
KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints
(already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX
coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification
of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary
as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late
evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK
into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the
dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins
to eject during the early evening hours.

...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas...
Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC
period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of
diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode
inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete
supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though
uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening).
Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening
hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will
occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an
increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and
maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours. 

...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri...
Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development
of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across
eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours -
likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm
advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds
within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on
the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1
km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very
large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the
weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering
and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could
limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in
guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants
an expansion of probabilities.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled
boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection
by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest
compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation
should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of
posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may
promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for
damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail are expected today into this evening across parts of the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Isolated severe storms may also occur from
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the southern
and central Plains.

...Upper Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes today,
as a more subtle shortwave trough moves through the Midwest. At the
surface, a low will move into Lower Michigan as a trailing cold
front advances southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Ahead of the front, a cluster of storms is expected to move
eastward through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the
morning, reaching Lower Michigan by midday. To the south of this
cluster of storms, surface heating with dewpoints of 55 to 60 F will
contribute to a broad area of instability. An outflow boundary
appears likely to move into northern Indiana and northern Ohio
around midday, where scattered convective initiation should take
place in the early afternoon. These storms are forecast to move
eastward into the central Appalachians during the mid to late
afternoon, with additional storms forming further west across
northern Missouri and central Illinois. As cells gradually increase
in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, MCS
development will be possible.

The greatest chance for severe storms appears likely to occur this
afternoon and evening from far northeast Illinois eastward into
western New York and northern Pennsylvania. Along much of this
east-to-west corridor, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will also
increase across the Midwest as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves
into the Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the jet, lift
and shear will be sufficiently strong for organized storms.
Supercells and short multicell line segments, associated with severe
wind gusts and large hail, are expected from mid afternoon into the
evening. Increasing cell coverage could result in a somewhat larger
severe line segment, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

Further west into the lower Missouri Valley, isolated severe storms
are expected to develop in the late afternoon and early evening.
This area will be located further from the mid-level jet, which will
make deep-layer shear and low-level flow a bit weaker. For this
reason, the severe threat is expected to remain more localized.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the southern
and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across the Texas Panhandle extending northeastward into
southern and eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
in the 55 to 60 F range will contribute to the development of
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE rising into the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. As low-level convergence increases along and to
the south of the front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis late this
afternoon have large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions with
very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will result in
high-based storms that could be capable of producing isolated severe
wind gusts and hail. The threat should persist into the evening.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/31/2026