MD 0125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


Mesoscale Discussion 0125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 012131Z - 012330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk will increase through late
afternoon/evening. A couple of storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds across central/south-central Oklahoma in the 5 PM - 10
PM time period.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has been expanding across the central
OK vicinity the past couple of hours. Warm, moist advection in the
low and midlevels has allowed surface dewpoints to increase into the
57-60 F range between the I-44 and I-35 corridors south of the OKC
Metro, with more modest boundary layer moisture noted with northeast
extent. Substantial midlevel moistening between the 850-700 mb layer
was noted between 1730z-1830z in midday ACARS/TAMDAR data from OKC.
Furthermore, a 21z sounding from OUN showed only weak capping with
MUCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg amid midlevel lapse rates near 7.5
C/km.

As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 22-00z
time frame near a surface low and cold front oriented from the OKC
area southwestward along the I-44 corridor. The strongest storms may
produce large hail in the 1.5-2.0 inch range, and gusty winds of
45-60 mph. It remains uncertain how many storms may develop, and the
corridor for severe-caliber hail may remain fairly narrow in space
and time. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Smith.. 03/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35089605 34829632 34459680 34299723 34179786 34219840
            34269869 34439882 34599881 34729874 34979849 35279813
            35509773 35629736 35649686 35599659 35489625 35309604
            35089605 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
An approaching mid-level trough and surface low evolution across the
Southern Plains should enhance the fire weather threat across
eastern NM and far west TX on D3/Tuesday. A progressive wave pattern
should remain intact through midweek, with extended model guidance
bringing in another mid-level trough into the Southwest by
D5/Thursday. Subsequent lee surface troughing in the Central Plains
on D5/Thursday will heighten fire weather concerns, promoting dry,
downslope flow across the Southern High Plains. Farther east,
prominent south-southwesterly flow should keep deeper boundary layer
moisture in place across the Southeast and Florida, limiting RH
reductions and leaving a mitigated fire weather environment in place
through the weekend.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft accelerates over the Southern Plains as a
mid-level jet ahead of the parent trough over the Southwest enters
to the region. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO
should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM,
West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. A dry and well mixed 
boundary west of the deeper Gulf moisture plume should support
critically low RH by the afternoon. Receptive fuels combined with
dry and breezy conditions support maintenance of at least 40%
critical probabilities for this region.

...Day 5/Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
A similar synoptic setup as D3/Tuesday is expected to evolve by
D5/Thursday across the Southern Plains. Another, but more amplified
mid-level wave reaches the Southwest by Tuesday as surface
cyclogenesis consolidates in the Central Plains. An expansive swath
of stronger southwest winds and low relative humidity will align
with abundant dry fuels to bring an enhanced fire weather threat to
portions of the central/southern Plains. Sporadic showers associated
with a southward progressing cold front on D4/Wednesday are expected
across the OK/TX Panhandles, southeast CO and western KS, but
widespread rainfall is not likely, keeping a dry fuelscape largely
intact into Thursday. A 40% critical probability was added to
portions of the southern/central Plains owing to higher confidence
in the model guidance consensus.

...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains...
Enhanced downslope flow from the southwest could linger into
D6/Friday under an exiting mid-level jet max across the Southern
Plains. Likely cooler temperatures along with uncertainties in
timing of the next cold front limits the overall fire weather threat
predictability for D6/Friday, with critical probabilities withheld
at this time.

..Williams.. 03/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening.  Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks.  A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK.  Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period. 

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening. 
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL.  Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon.  Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb.  A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in
south Florida.

...Synopsis...
The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin
ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the
mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance
northward through the day in response to lee
cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return
into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should
help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A
southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and
into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in
tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough.
Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances
for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS
between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings
from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and
strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized
thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind,
threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat
low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and
drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal
along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate
buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in
extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.

..Moore.. 03/01/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Elevated Fire Weather Highlights were introduced into portions of
the High Plains of central/southern CO and eastern NM for Monday. A
backdoor cold front will usher in a cooler, but shallow moist
near-surface layer into much of the High Plains through tonight into
D2/Monday. Lee surface trough development in response to increasing
westerly flow aloft is expected ahead of the mid-level trough
entering the Southwest. This will support downslope drying and
breezy west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) within a
narrow corridor along and east of the Southern Rockies, into
south-central NM. Eastward mixing of the dry line and subsequent
evolution of a deep, dry boundary layer should promote afternoon RH
reductions to around 15% by mid-afternoon. The combination of
stronger west-southwest winds, low RH and abundant dry fuels will
boost fire weather concerns for Monday.

...Lower Colorado River Basin and Four Corners....
Although a broad region of dry and breezy conditions will develop
across the Lower CO River Basin and Four Corners ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough, fuel receptiveness remains limited,
which should mitigate broader fire weather impacts along and west of
the Continental Divide.

..Williams.. 03/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and
shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving
from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing
westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds
and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions D2/Monday.

...Northern NM and far southern CO...
Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from
the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains
D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is
likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow
aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected
across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into
central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive
farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some
locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central
and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor
alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should
preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...