
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the Southern Plains through at least Day 5/Saturday. Strong mid-level westerly flow aloft combined with surface lee trough development will support dry and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day 3-4/Thursday and Friday, with fire weather concerns shifting southward into southern TX on Day 5/Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. by early next week, ushering in northwest flow and aiding in bringing a cold front southward towards the Gulf Coast by Day 6/Sunday. Fire weather concerns could emerge across portions of the Southeast and FL by Day 7/Monday, but precipitation could limit overall threat. ...Day 3/Thursday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely to promote continued fire weather concerns across the Southern Plains. Elevated west winds south of a surface low in the Central Plains under a strong 80-90 kt mid-level jet, a dry boundary layer and dry fuels should be conducive to wildfire spread across portions of northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and OK on Day 3/Thursday. Dry and breezy westerly flow aided by favorable downslope conditions are anticipated farther south across far west TX. A slight expansion of the existing 40 percent critical probability area was warranted, primarily into eastern OK. A dry cold front diving southward and subsequent wind shift could impact existing fires Thursday afternoon and evening across the TX Panhandle and OK. ...Day 4/Friday... Another embedded mid-level short wave and associated jet streak pushes into the Southern Plains on Day 4/Friday resulting in dry and breezy downslope flow across the High Plains of eastern NM and western TX. A 40 percent critical probability area was shifted northward based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Day 5/Saturday... Dry, northerly flow in the wake of a pronounced dry cold front is expected across southern TX on Day 5/Saturday, although cooler post-frontal temperatures could somewhat mitigate a more significant fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the dry and breezy north winds along with dry fuels necessitated introduction of 40 percent critical probabilities for much of south-central TX. ...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Upper-level troughing becomes established across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds west of the Continental Divide early next week. Dry, post-frontal flow could bring fire weather concerns back into the Southeast and FL by Day 7/Monday. However, some uncertainty remains in preceding Day 6/Sunday precipitation amounts across this region, which could mitigate fire weather concerns Monday. Critical probabilities were not introduced owing to lower predictability and potential mitigating impacts from rainfall. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA... CORRECTED FOR NDFD COLOR FILL ISSUE ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa... Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced 100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F. While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward extent Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast throughout the day and tonight. ...Coastal California... Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally, there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas. ...Upper Midwest... Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain less than 10%. Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Southern and Central Plains... A strengthening surface low across eastern CO along with strong mid-level flow ahead of an approaching short wave will support another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Less cloud cover aiding in more efficient boundary layer mixing of stronger winds aloft should support drier conditions overall, with single digit relative humidity likely Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles where recent fire activity has emerged. Overall, a broad region of southwest winds of 15-25 mph combined with critically low humidity in the 10 to 20 percent range will promote high-end Critical fire weather conditions across much of Southern High Plains Thursday. Some northward and eastward expansion of Critical Highlights were warranted based on latest short term model guidance and recent fire activity. Similarly, existing Elevated Highlights were extended farther eastward into KS, TX and OK, with fire weather concerns potentially extending well into the evening. ...Portions of the Midwest... A swath of dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the Midwest south of a surface low approaching the Great Lakes, underneath a mid-level jet on the southern periphery of an approaching short wave. West winds of 15-25 mph combined with relative humidity around 20 percent will bring at least Elevated fire weather concerns from eastern NE, much of IA into northwestern IL. Preceding rain showers tonight into Wednesday morning should be sporadic with limited effect on drying fuels. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... A second, pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader and active upper troughing pattern, is poised to eject into the central Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). A surface low will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley while a second surface low develops and quickly deepens over the central High Plains. Strong isallobaric flow over portions of the Midwest, and downslope flow along lee of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, will promote appreciable wildfire spread conditions over both locales. ...Southern High Plains... The deepening of the surface low will augment downslope flow by afternoon, resulting in widespread sustained southwesterly surface winds around 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region continue to cure given a lack of appreciable rainfall prior exposure to dry and windy days, warranting the introduction of Critical highlights for the second day in a row. ...Portions of the Midwest... As a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes, sustained westerly surface winds will reach the 15-25 mph range while advecting dry air from the west. RH may reduce to 15-25 percent by afternoon peak heating. Given an appreciable lack of rainfall from eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and western/northern Illinois over the past month, the aforementioned dry and windy conditions may certainly support wildfire spread, necessitating high-end Elevated highlights. If a greater consensus among guidance members can depict 20+ mph winds better overlapping with 20 percent or lower RH, Critical highlights will be needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis... Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains. ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley... Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is expected to be the focus for convective development during the afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening. ..Wendt.. 02/17/2026Read more