Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the
continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and
cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the
central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the
south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is
forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east
of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the
afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the
distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability
will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat
marginal in most areas.

On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to
be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough
moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this
feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The
greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be
across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate
deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range,
uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.

...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.

..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.

...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time. 

Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.

..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...