SPC Forecast Products
SPC Jan 5, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Published: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 at 01:56:53 AM CST
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Coastal WA/OR...
A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by
midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the
Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to
-35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should
yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late
morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the
afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in
the wake of trough passage.

...West TX to the Ozarks...
In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a
low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from
west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z
Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite
consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given
typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in
holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of
guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will
impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX
Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night. 

Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will
initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast
soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated
upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As
such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance
also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective
development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of
preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent.
Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated
thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance
consistency in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 5 07:57:02 UTC 2026
Published: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 at 01:56:05 AM CST
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 5 07:57:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jan 5 07:57:02 UTC 2026
Published: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 at 01:56:05 AM CST
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 5 07:57:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 at 01:44:25 AM CST
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing is expected across the High Plains
tomorrow (Tuesday) beneath zonal westerly flow aloft. While dry
surface air (i.e. 20-25 percent RH) will overspread the central and
southern High Plains, westerly surface winds should be generally too
weak to support widespread wildfire-spread potential over most
locales. One exception may be portions of western Nebraska and
immediate adjacent areas. Here the latest guidance depicts 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the 20-25 percent RH
for several hours Tuesday afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights.

..Squitieri.. 01/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 at 01:27:25 AM CST
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across the central U.S., with
an embedded mid-level impulse poised to impinge on the southern
Rockies today. Gradual surface low deepening will commence across
the central Plains during the afternoon, encouraging both westerly
isallobaric and downslope surface flow along portions of the central
and southern High Plains, where Elevated highlights are in place.
Here, fuels continue to cure given the absence of rain, and
widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-25
percent RH should overspread these fuels for several hours this
afternoon. Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of locally
stronger flow (i.e. 20 mph winds amid 15 percent RH) across portions
of the Texas Panhandle, where Critical highlights have been
maintained.

..Squitieri.. 01/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Jan 5, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Mon, 05 Jan 2026 at 12:37:35 AM CST
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of
very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great
Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief
thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation
swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area
will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards
12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough
should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that
thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

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SPC Jan 5, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Sun, 04 Jan 2026 at 11:03:50 PM CST
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level flow is trending more zonal across
the northern mid-latitudes, from the Pacific to the Atlantic. 
Across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, it appears
likely to remain more amplified through this period, with one
notable short wave trough forecast to continue digging across the
eastern Pacific. Downstream, a lower amplitude short wave trough
emerging from the Intermountain West may contribute to further
suppression of mid-level ridging as far south as the central Great
Plains into middle Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. 
However, mid-level ridging is likely to be maintained across much of
the Gulf Basin and adjacent Gulf Coast, to the north of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high forming near the Yucatan
Peninsula.  Farther east, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to
shift a bit further offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard.

Beneath this regime, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence across
the central Great Plains into Midwest.  This may be accompanied by
some low-level moistening off a Gulf boundary layer only slowly
modifying in the wake of recent cooling and/or drying.  However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture return will be capped
by pronounced warm and dry layers in the lower through
mid-troposphere.

...California...
Stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent downstream of the
digging offshore short wave, which could potentially become
supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorms, may
approach the central California coast this morning before slowly
shifting southward near, but mostly offshore of coastal areas
through the remainder of the period.

...Great Basin into Rockies...
Guidance continues to suggest that mid-level cooling and forcing for
ascent (associated with a short wave perturbation now progressing
northeast and east of the southern Sierra Nevada) could contribute
to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles at least marginally
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, across the
mountains of north central/northeastern Utah this morning into
northwestern Colorado/adjacent southern Wyoming later today.

...Upper Midwest...
Downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, forecast
soundings indicate that steepening lapse rates associated with
mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, coupled with mid-level
moisture return, may support a corridor of destabilization rooted
generally around the 700 mb layer.  It might not be entirely out of
the question that this could support weak convection capable of
producing lightning across the southern Minnesota through southern
Wisconsin vicinity (and adjacent portions of northern Illinois/Iowa)
tonight.  However, probabilities for this still appear below the
minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.

..Kerr.. 01/05/2026

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