
Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into West Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 242117Z - 250115Z
SUMMARY...An increase in precipitation coverage and intensity is
expected into the evening.
DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level shortwave trough can be seen across
northern Mexico on water vapor imagery. This trough is starting to
take on a negative tilt as it advances towards Far West Texas. As
this occurs, large-scale ascent will strengthen across the southern
High Plains.
This will result in an increase in coverage and intensity of
precipitation late this afternoon and into the evening. Regional
radar imagery shows this expansion beginning already with cooling
cloud tops upstream across northern Mexico and Far West Texas.
Forecast soundings support sleet across much of this area late this
afternoon and into early evening. However, the sleet/snow line will
move gradually southeast through the evening as temperatures cool
aloft.
Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snow
accumulations of 1 inch per hour are expected as forcing increases.
Particularly closer to 00Z.
..Bentley.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34160314 34690180 34790008 34479925 32320005 30890161
30150217 30130305 30490430 32110449 34160314
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Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...northern MS to the southern Appalachians
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 241817Z - 242345Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain mixed with sleet is expected to expand
across parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians
through late afternoon. The most likely corridor for appreciable
accretion appears centered on north-central Mississippi, northwest
Alabama, and southeast Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...A broad swath of mixed winter precip is ongoing from
KY/TN southwest to LA. The initial leading activity has largely
remained as sleet and snow, with greater liquid-equivalent rates in
sleet, freezing rain, and rain over LA. This latter plume is
expected to be the most prolific for freezing rain rates as it
shifts northeast through late afternoon. Liquid-equivalent rates of
.05 to .25 in/hr should remain common. Despite ample low-level
isentropic ascent, guidance is quite insistent on expanding the
above-freezing warm nose north-northeast across northern MS to
eastern TN through 00Z. A 15Z UL-Monroe sounding sampled around 12C
at 900 mb, indicative of a classic freezing rain/mixed sleet
profile. The overall setup suggests that these should become the
primary PTYPEs across central/northern MS through northwest AL to
southeast TN.
..Grams.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34209026 35448831 36048675 36338482 36348395 36048318
35708306 35228341 34968374 34838495 34278684 33138962
33659021 34209026
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more