Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,
yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.
Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS
signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across
the southern states through late week. While run-to-run
predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective
potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of
the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis
consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears
marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and
yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual
day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast tomorrow (Monday),
resulting in northwesterly upper flow overspreading the Plains
states through the Day 2 period. Northwesterly flow will also
prevail at the surface over the Plains as surface high pressure
settles over the region. Sustained surface north-northwesterly winds
should peak around 15 mph by afternoon, amid 40 F surface
temperatures and 15-25 percent RH. Given drying fuels, the
aforementioned meteorological conditions should support low-end
Elevated conditions. The best chance for these conditions will be
across the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma, where Elevated highlights have been introduced.

..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.

..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...