
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower Texas Coast early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should limit updraft intensity over land areas. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2025Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Breezy and marginally dry conditions are beginning to develop behind a weak cold front across portions of western TX. 15-20 mph winds coupled with RH reductions into the 25-35% range may support a few areas of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon - mainly along the I-20 corridor. However, fuels across this region remain only modestly dry with ERC values near the 60-65th percentiles. As such, the overall fire weather potential remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Cold/continental trajectories especially east of the Rockies will generally preclude thunderstorm development. Regarding a potential exception, gradual low-level moisture return will continue to occur over the western Gulf toward coastal Texas ahead of a low-latitude trough over northern Mexico. Convection will probably develop and increase late tonight over the western Gulf, but modest forcing for ascent and marginal thermodynamic profiles aloft should limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas of Texas. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/12/2025Read more