
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the mid-Atlantic seaboard this evening, as another trough moves across the northern Plains. Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move across the Southeast as a cold front advances across the central Plains. A cold and dry airmass will remain in place over much of the nation, being unfavorable for thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/16/2026Read more

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The upper-level pattern from this weekend through next week will feature a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Model guidance continues to suggest the possible development/evolution of the trough within the West late next week into the weekend, but model variability--both between models and run-to-run--grows rather large by that time frame. This pattern will promote multiple cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Precipitation appears likely from the Mississippi Valley eastward. The southern High Plains into parts of the central High Plains are expected to remain dry. Depending on how fuels respond to the colder air, some fire risk could increase in these areas where stronger surface winds/downsloping occur. Predictability of where this will occur and how intense these conditions will be is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more