
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a large scale upper-level troughing pattern should hold across the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. This should facilitate a mostly stable and colder air mass across much of the eastern U.S., limiting the fire weather threat. A mid-level jet and associated ascent in addition to a frontal boundary meandering near the Gulf Coast should bring several rounds of rain to much of the Deep South and Piedmont regions, where severe/extreme drought lingers in portions of southern GA/northern FL. Farther west, model guidance shows a gradually expanding upper-level ridge across building into CA and Desert Southwest through the weekend, allowing dry conditions and above normal temperatures to develop. A short wave within the broader northwest flow aloft translates southeastward into the central/southern Rockies on Day 4/Saturday while a lee cyclone evolves across the central/southern High Plains. Dry and breezy conditions should develop across eastern NM and West TX on Day 4/Saturday but antecedent precipitation tonight into Day 2/Thursday, including accumulating snowfall, should mitigate fire weather impacts overall into the weekend. The Southern Plains will remain the focus for fire weather concerns on Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday with potential lee cyclone/trough development along the central/southern High Plains under robust northwest flow aloft. However, uncertainty in fuels precludes introducing critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A stronger storm or two is possible along the upper Texas Gulf Coast into the Sabine Valley. Marginally severe hail could occur. ...20Z Update... No changes to the outlook are necessary. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 12/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches, which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km) lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX Coastal Plain and central to southern LA. ...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection. However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of small to severe hail.Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire weather concerns across the contiguous U.S. An ongoing offshore wind event from the east-northeast will begin to wane Thursday afternoon across southern CA as surface pressure gradients relax throughout the day. Existing marginal fuel conditions should reduce wildfire spread potential, limiting impacts from the dry and locally breezy winds. ..Williams.. 12/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will favor another day of locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southern CA. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, marginal fuels should limit most concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Friday or Friday night. ...FL Panhandle vicinity... Isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Friday along the western and central Gulf Coast, within a broad swath of low-level isentropic ascent atop a slow-moving offshore surface front. This will spread east during the day across parts of the Southeast. Some of the non-CAM guidance suggest the front may penetrate inland in a portion of the FL Panhandle attendant to a decaying weak surface low. With the synoptic pattern favoring a broad/low-amplitude trough into the south-central states, large-scale ascent and mid-level lapse rates should remain weak, compounding uncertainty in how much surface-based destabilization can occur with any afternoon convection. The bulk of ML guidance outside of the SPC-CSU indicates less than 5 percent severe probs as well. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential mesoscale level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 12/03/2025Read more