
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.Read more

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026Read more

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026Read more

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more