
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night. ...Pacific Northwest... In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly. Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool, with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front. The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally wet fuels should keep fire concerns low. Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light, which will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason.. 01/29/2026Read more