SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Northwest Gulf Coast into the Ark-La-Miss...
The low-level airmass over this region is continuing to slowly
modify after a previous arctic intrusion into the Gulf basin.  Only
limited diurnal destabilization (i.e., mainly 50s surface dewpoints
yielding weak CAPE) is expected within a warm conveyor extending
across the central Gulf Coast states eastward into the southern
Appalachians.  A mid-level trough will approach the region and aid
in pushing a cold front southeast.  Forecast soundings suggest weak,
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over east TX and
the Ark-La-Tex before shifting east-southeast across the lower MS
Valley later this evening into tonight.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/03/2026

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 3 12:39:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 3 12:39:02 UTC 2026.

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry,
offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least
Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will
be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance
depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across
the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern
Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are
that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the
CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe
potential.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A midlevel trough will move from the eastern U.S. into the western
Atlantic, while an amplified upper ridge persists along the Rockies.
This will yield dry/stable conditions and limit thunderstorm
potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026