SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper low/short-wave trough have advanced inland across interior CA
early this evening. Earlier isolated thunderstorm activity, beneath
this feature, has weakened and further boundary-layer cooling will
not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of generating
lightning.

..Darrow.. 01/02/2026

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

Low amplitude ridging is expected to develop over the central US
this weekend, with low amplitude ridging to quasi-zonal flow over
much of the CONUS early to mid-next week. A jet will like likely
extend east-northeast from off the southern California coast through
the Colorado Rockies this weekend into early next week, which will
increase downslope flow for portions of the southern/central Plains.
While widespread precipitation is expected for the West Coast, much
of the central US, especially the Plains, are likely to remain dry
into mid-next week. Most of the Southeast will also receive little
to no precipitation after Day 3/Saturday. 

...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday: central/southern High Plains...
Downslope flow will increase across the central High Plains on Day
4/Sunday as a westerly mid-level jet impinges on the
central/southern Rockies. Elevated conditions are possible from
southeast Wyoming into southern Colorado along and just east of the
eastern slopes of the Rockies. However, current forecast guidance
indicates misalignment of the strongest winds and lowest RH.
Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding how far down the
eastern slopes of the Rockies the stronger winds will extend.
Despite recent precipitation, fuels remain historically dry for this
time of year across portions of these areas. 

On Day 5/Monday, downslope flow and subsequent lee troughing will
likely result in elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions
in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity as breezy west-southwest winds
strengthen amid a dry airmass across portions of the southern High
Plains. Forecast guidance indicates the possibility of elevated fire
weather conditions continuing on Day 6/Monday in portions of west
Texas extending into central/north Texas, but too much forecast
uncertainty exists to introduce probabilities at this time.

..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The potential for lighting flashes with low-topped convection across
parts of southern CA has generally diminished, as a shortwave trough
continues northeastward across northern/central CA this afternoon
and evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures and modest daytime
heating may still support sufficient MUCAPE for isolated
thunderstorms across parts of central CA for a few more hours this
afternoon, before this potential diminishes this evening.

..Gleason.. 01/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/

...California...
A shortwave trough will continue to move inland along coastal
north-central California early today, and toward the Sierra and
other parts of Nevada late this afternoon into tonight. With minimal
buoyancy noted in 12z observed soundings, convective potential will
further diminish across far southern California coastal areas today
via frontal passage. More immediately preceding the aforementioned
shortwave trough, potential for a few low-topped thunderstorms will
exist through the afternoon across the central Valley.