SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 at 01:57:18 PM CDT
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...Afternoon Update...
Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire
weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across
the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit
deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon.
However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of
10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an
Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds
of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where
exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly
throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and
gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather
conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience
localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of
up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains.
However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong
winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical
highlights at this time.

Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central
NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat
of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the
90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts
receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist.

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels. 

...High Plains...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
early stages of moisture return.

...Southeast...
A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
of elevated fire weather conditions.

...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
lightning ignitions appear possible.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 19 18:58:02 UTC 2026
Published: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 at 01:57:05 PM CDT
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 19 18:58:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 19 18:58:02 UTC 2026
Published: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 at 01:57:04 PM CDT
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 19 18:58:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Apr 19, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Published: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 at 12:22:52 PM CDT
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough within the Northeast will progress offshore on
Monday. A subtle shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will
move into South Texas/middle Texas coast overnight into Tuesday
morning. On the West Coast, a stronger upper trough will into parts
of the Northwest and northern/central California. A surface high
pressure system across much of the east will remain largely in
place. Very modest moisture return is possible into the Rio Grande
Valley and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos regions.

...South Florida...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected across the Peninsula given the
upper trough to the north. Though mid-level temperatures will be
cooling during the day, persistent northeasterly winds at the
surface will lead to a large down-peninsular component at low
levels. Dewpoints will have a tendency to drop during the same time
frame. This pattern, coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should
keep severe potential low.

...Trans-Pecos into Central/South Texas...
With moisture return into the Davis Mountains vicinity, a storm or
two could develop within the terrain. A modest enhancement to
deep-layer shear in association with the subtle perturbation moving
through could allow for a stronger storm. Given how isolated this
activity would be as well as its dependency on sufficient moisture
return, confidence in such a scenario is quite low.

Farther east, warm air advection will increase during the overnight
hours. Elevated buoyancy is expected to increase during this time
frame. Shear will be weaker with northern extent and increasing
southward in closer proximity to the weak shortwave perturbation.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak as will MUCAPE (less than 750
J/kg). Small hail may occur with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 04/19/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Published: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 at 11:02:28 AM CDT
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Across the southern
Plains, morning surface observations depict widespread values of
less than 20 percent RH owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries.
Decreasing high clouds early this afternoon will promote deeper
mixing with RH dropping to 5-15 percent and strong gusts of up to 35
mph mixing down to the surface, maintaining Critical fire weather
concerns. Across the Piedmont/Southeast, a shield of high clouds
will gradually become more transparent with sporadic areas of
partially sunny skies this afternoon. 12z soundings portray a very
dry airmass up to 4-6 km, with 30-45 kt winds just above the
surface. Areas that see breaks in the clouds will likely experience
deeper mixing, contributing to stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph in localized areas. Northwesterly winds are expected to decrease
this evening, however, dry air will persist overnight across much of
the Southeast. This may lead to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
further exacerbating the fire environment into Day 2/Monday. See the
previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
coast. 

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat. 

...Southeast States...
06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Apr 19, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Published: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 at 11:02:06 AM CDT
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today.  This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.  

Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL.  In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.

..Hart/Bunting.. 04/19/2026

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