Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest, mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day, and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering the overall severe potential. ...Southwest... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/22/2025Read more