SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Large scale troughing is expected to predominate the eastern U.S.
through much of next week. Multiple mid-level short wave features,
related surface cold fronts and precipitation should generally keep
fire weather concerns minimal across much of the eastern U.S.
through Day 8/Friday. A period of prolonged above normal
temperatures and dry conditions is expected across the Intermountain
West and High Plains as a mid-level ridge amplifies over the western
U.S. A lack of drier fuels should limit overall impact from
occasional dry and breezy conditions across the Desert Southwest.

...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Florida...
A dry, post-frontal regime across FL should keep breezy northwest
winds across the peninsula Sunday with a diminishing surface
gradient reducing wind magnitude on Monday. However, light
precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Day 2/Saturday
along with abnormally cool temperatures and marginal fuel
receptiveness should mitigate a more expansive fire weather threat
across FL. This precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at
this time.

..Williams.. 01/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Southern Georgia and North Florida...
A strong cold front behind a rapidly deepening low just off the
Carolina Coast will move through the FL Peninsula Saturday. Although
breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph are expected, a lack of
widespread RH reductions below 35%, considerably colder temperatures
as well as effects from recent precipitation along the FL/GA border
will limit a more widespread fire weather threat across the area.

..Williams.. 01/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast
on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast.
While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level
ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should
greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels.

...Southern Georgia into North Florida...
With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the
Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear
possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm
temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to
be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH
is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still
likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation
as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too
high for highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...