MD 0150 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI


Mesoscale Discussion 0150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas into western/central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062147Z - 070015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk should gradually increase over the next
few hours. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection is gradually deepening
within a zone of low-level warm advection over southwestern MO and
southeastern KS -- along the southeastern periphery of earlier
thunderstorm clusters. Here, boundary-layer dewpoints are increasing
into the lower 60s amid pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks.
While a low-level warm layer and related inhibition (evident in
earlier nearby soundings and forecast profiles) limits confidence in
thunderstorm evolution/maturation -- especially given weak
large-scale forcing for ascent -- the continued destabilization may
favor gradual intensification through the afternoon into this
evening. If thunderstorms can become surface-based, around 40-50 kt
of effective shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
would support supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. 

Given the uncertainty on timing/evolution of the severe risk in this
corridor, a watch is not expected in the near-term, though
convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37929582 38539555 39269474 39649414 39739362 39609309
            39309281 38809271 38019311 37219385 36939426 36929468
            37069564 37479583 37929582 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS


Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and
northeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062010Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms are possible through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has been gradually
intensifying along a warm front in far southwestern Lower MI this
afternoon, with additional deepening cumulus extending
west-southwestward across northern IN into northeastern IL. Here,
lower 60s dewpoints and diurnal heating has yielded a corridor of
weak surface-based buoyancy along the southern edge of widespread
clouds. Despite the weak buoyancy, strong deep-layer wind field
(sampled by regional VWP) is yielding an elongated hodograph with
enhanced low-level curvature. This environment may promote some
storm organization this afternoon, including small clusters and
brief/transient supercell structures. Locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado risk will accompany the stronger storms that
evolve. The overall severe risk may remain too isolated for a watch,
though trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   42008798 41978736 42018679 42298611 42508548 42508505
            42368463 41968443 41648459 41328490 41088542 40918596
            40738680 40658733 40658787 40678834 40898879 41138907
            41638905 41948858 42008798 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

MD 0148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 0148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and north
central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061957Z - 062230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development may gradually initiate through 3-6 PM CST.  This may
include supercells accompanied by large hail, and at least some risk
for tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Though the dryline may remain relatively diffuse, it
appears to be coming at least a bit better defined near the I-35
corridor of Oklahoma, southward into portions of western North
Texas.  Low-level convergence along it is generally weak, and the
primary short wave perturbation emerging from the southern Great
Basin is tending to slowly pivot northeast of the Colorado Rockies
into the central Great Plains.  However, aided by a corridor of
low-level moistening near the interface of the stronger
boundary-layer warming, notable destabilization is ongoing as
mid-level inhibition erodes.

This is evident in 18Z raobs from Lamont, Norman and Fort Worth, and
it appears that, with continued low-level warm advection, isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms may begin to initiate during the
next few hours.  Within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt
south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, the evolution of a few
supercells appears possible, which should tend to take on a more
prominent easterly propagation as they intensify.  

Given the conditional and convective instability present, these
storms will pose a risk for large hail and localized strong surface
gusts.  Low-level hodographs appear at least conditionally
supportive of tornadoes.  However, the extent of this potential
remains unclear, particularly given the downstream low-level
subsidence and drying forecast in the Rapid Refresh output,
including forecast soundings, through early evening.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33119863 33799849 35479780 36749744 36769563 35989535
            34819582 33679631 32589708 32319832 33119863 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA...AND NORTHWEST MO


Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...central/northeast KS...southeast NE...southwest
IA...and northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 061950Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for increasing severe potential this afternoon.
Initial threat should be large hail and damaging winds, with a
gradually increasing tornado threat. A watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus is evident
over north-central KS into southeast MO -- within a zone of
low-level confluence immediately ahead of a cold front. Continued
diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints should erode remaining
inhibition and favor isolated storm development over the next couple
hours. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kt of effective shear will
promote storm organization, though generally weak large-scale
forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on individual storm longevity
initially. Nevertheless, this environment will favor discrete
supercells with a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time,
storms will spread/develop east-northeastward, where sheltered
boundary-layer moisture and larger clockwise-curved hodographs
(aided by a 50-kt low-level jet sampled by TOP 18Z sounding) will
favor an increasing tornado risk later this afternoon into tonight. 

While timing of thunderstorm development/maturation remains
uncertain, current thinking is that a watch will likely be needed
this afternoon.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40129754 40569695 41119640 41449597 41599526 41579447
            41289398 40549379 39939399 39039492 38309623 37989703
            37849769 37929829 38109877 38319905 38889911 39419874
            39869804 40129754 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

WW 0016 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0016 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 16 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 062115Z - 070400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Iowa
  Central and Northeast Kansas
  Northwest Missouri
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop near a
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front, with additional development
possible into this evening ahead of it. All aspects of severe
weather are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and
tornado potential.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Russell
KS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.

...Guyer

WW 0015 Status Updates


STATUS FOR WATCH 0015 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 15 TORNADO OK TX 062045Z - 070400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 15
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Oklahoma
  North Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including supercells are expected to
develop through mid/late afternoon across the region, with the most
intense storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado
risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Bartlesville OK
to 25 miles southeast of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.

...Guyer

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...20z Update...
No categorical changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook.

A corridor of more favorable tornado potential is possible this
evening near the interface of the surface low and warm front across
far southeastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. Here,
within the warm sector cells may develop ahead of the cold front
within an region of enhanced low-level shear (given the placement of
the warm front and forecast increase in south-southwesterly
low-level jet). There are some complicating factors, such as ongoing
cloud cover and convection in the warm air advection regime this
morning. Some sheltered heating is ongoing with breaks in the cloud
cover, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg nosing in from the west. The 18z
soundings from Lamont, OK and Topeka, KS show this trend in
instability as well as enlarged/curved hodographs and strong 50 kt
flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict further enlargement of
low-level hodographs this evening, amid steep lapse rates and dew
points in the low to mid 60s, and STP values around 2. Given the
favorable parameter space, tornado probabilities were increased with
this outlook.

Otherwise, the Enhanced remains unchanged. See previous discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/

...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of
the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with
upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon.
Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will
support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into
Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although
such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover
across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast
Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the
surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support
organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This
activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly
quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind
damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as
convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at
least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into
early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan
if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is
forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these
areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong
tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level
shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level
jet.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning
across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating
the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved
short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation
along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a
bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will
be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the
region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day
storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible
into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more
likely to its east potentially related to differential
heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.

Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe
and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm
development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold
front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging
winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the
period.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made to the Day 2/Saturday Outlook. While elevated
criteria is close to being met over portions of the northern High
Plains, cold conditions Day 1/Friday behind the cold front will
mitigate any fire weather threat over that area in the short term.
However, above normal temperatures combined with dry and breezy
conditions Day 2/Saturday will precondition fuels ahead of a
potential fire weather threat on Day 3/Sunday.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow will split on D2/Saturday, with a mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the central Great
Plains and Great Lakes regions while a closed upper-low retrogrades
southwestward across portions of the Southwest, eventually settling
off the coast of northern Baja California. At the surface,
moderately strong high pressure will build into the Great Basin,
with a low pressure center settling over Baja California. Meanwhile,
a second surface low will progress northeastward from the northern
Great Lakes across southeastern Canada, with an attendant cold front
moving southeastward across the eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying this front are
expected to limit fire weather concerns at this time.

...Portions of Southern California...
Aided by strong northeasterly mid-level flow aloft, the placement of
the aforementioned surface features across the West will contribute
to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over portions of
Southern California. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20-25
mph (with gusts as high as 35-45 mph in favored coastal/terrain
areas) are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-20%; however,
unreceptive fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS
TO SOUTHEAST VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave impulse will quickly progress east from the Saint
Lawrence Valley, as a backside shortwave trough rapidly moves from
the Upper Great Lakes across New England by Sunday night. Surface
front trailing southwest from the lead impulse will push off the
coastal Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon, with frontolysis occurring
over the Southeast during the evening/night.  

...Carolinas and southeast VA...
The northern extent of the surface-based warm sector should overlap
the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies atop the trailing
cold front. Guidance consensus suggests weak buoyancy should develop
by midday/early afternoon across the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain and adjacent Piedmont. Both the 12Z NAM and ECMWF depict
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may be present near the
mid-level jetlet across VA. Bulk of guidance indicates isolated to
scattered storm development off the Piedmont to coastal plain
through the afternoon into early evening, before convergence along
the front wanes. While low-level shear should be weak, favorable mid
to upper-level speed shear could support a few cells with transient
mid-level rotation. Isolated severe storms with marginal hail/wind
magnitudes seem plausible. This scenario is supported by at least 5
percent total severe probs in the 12Z SPC-GEFS, along with the 00Z
NSSL-GEFS and both NCAR-ECENS ML products.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN TX TO MS AND
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday
morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great
Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should
occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.

...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Lower CO
Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore
from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cyclone over the
Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to QC. A trailing
cold front will extend southwest from the low across the Lower MO
Valley to central TX at 12Z Saturday. This front will sweep
east/southeast across the Midwest, while the TX portion slows its
southern progression through early Sunday. 

...OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
At least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath
along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the Mid-South to the
central Great Lakes. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening
surface cyclone into ON/QC will support upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints advecting towards western PA/southwest NY. Cloudiness in
vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately
downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop
from the Cumberland Plateau into a portion of the Upper OH Valley.
This should support weak to modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during
the afternoon. Most guidance signals an uptick in convective
intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the
stronger instability by early afternoon. Sufficient low-level speed
shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however
linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly
parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. Scattered
damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard. A tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail
may occur in deeper updrafts.

...TX to the Deep South...
Extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface
front at 12Z Saturday from the Mid-South to the TX Big Country. The
western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous
undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an
initial severe hail threat. Linear convection will be most
predominant from the Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South, sagging east-southeast
across the Lower MS to TN Valleys, as it expands in coverage with
downstream diurnal destabilization. Low-level shear will be
strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. A
brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of
damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated
severe hail. Linear clusters will probably persist into the evening,
but shrink in areal extent on Saturday night, with a diminishing
severe threat towards the central Gulf Coast. 

Over central to southern TX, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater
boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the Rio Grande,
should support a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow
will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist
sector. Transient supercells are expected as the composite
front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the
evening. Large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary
hazards. A more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a
meso-beta corridor of south TX/Brush Country vicinity, capable of
very large hail. This may warrant a level 3-ENH with a CIG2
delineation in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026