
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. A broad positive-tilt upper trough will shift more slowly eastward across the West, reaching the northern High Plains to Four Corners by early Friday. Downstream lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO through Thursday afternoon. A warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this cyclone. A separate front will be oriented to the northeast and north, accelerating southeast over the northern Great Plains Thursday night. The dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern NM into far western parts of TX. ...Southern to central Great Plains... Deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO through the day will yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced EML from TX to KS. Initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late afternoon to early evening in the TX Panhandle/northwest TX vicinity and adjacent western OK. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it advances north. The HRRR/RRFS and MPAS runs are much more aggressive compared to the NAM-Nest and NSSL-ARW cores with sustained storms. Differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the effective front/dryline intersection in the western TX Panhandle. Should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points and surface-based instability into Thursday night. The initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile and steep mid-level lapse rates. It is plausible that a longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of western to north-central OK. However, upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the overnight, capable of producing all hazards. But with some weakening of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent. Elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the southwest/central NE vicinity and in a broader swath across the Mid-MO Valley overnight. Isolated severe hail and strong gusts could briefly accompany the more robust storms. ..Grams.. 03/04/2026Read more

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley... Well in advance of an amplifying trough over the Great Basin, a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough over the south-central High Plains will continue east-northeastward over the Lower Missouri Valley through tonight. A base-embedded modestly increasing belt of southwesterly mid-level flow (50+ kt) will maximize from northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas across the Ozarks, in general proximity to a weak surface low/frontal zone across the region where deep-layer/low-level shear are expected to be maximized. South of the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing into generally the low to mid 60s F. While cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent across the warm sector, this increasing moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability should develop across north-central into central Texas where stronger daytime heating is expected, although deep-layer/low-level shear will be notably weaker, while still sufficient for relatively isolated severe storms. Across most of the Slight Risk area, effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt will easily support organized convection regionally, although convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the surface front. Additionally, ongoing mostly elevated convection this morning across northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and southern Illinois may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization downstream, with outflow/existing convection contributing to modal complexity later today. Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists through tonight. An isolated and/or occasional hail threat may persist with ongoing elevated convection from southern Missouri into southern Indiana/northern Kentucky. Surface-based thunderstorm development should otherwise become more probable across the Ozarks into mid/late afternoon closer to the surface front/surface low and modifying outflow. A mix of supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any sustained supercells/clusters, particularly across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/04/2026Read more

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion for details. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the central Great Plains today as a more amplified upper-level trough digs southeastward into the West. At the surface, a nearly stationary boundary is forecast to extend from west Texas into the Midwest and then eastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures, lighter winds, and modestly increased RH within the post-frontal air mass will temper fire weather concerns across much of the central and southern High Plains. A second surface cyclone shifting southeastward from Alberta into Montana may bring a brief period of localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High Plains. Sustained surface winds are forecast to remain light across any areas that do see RH values of 20% or less, however. Given the expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger sustained wind, widespread fire weather concerns are unlikely at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more