Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high
pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern
CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to
some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances. 

Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday
across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas
and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution
of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and
EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper
closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is
more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather
potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once
again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more
amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous
12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well. 

Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern,
but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing
preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the East Coast from the
Northeast to Florida on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...Discussion...
A strong upper-level low will move from the Great Lakes to southern
Quebec on Wednesday. At the surface, a strong surface low will move
slowly east from Lake Superior to western Quebec. A cold front will
extend along the spine of the Appalachians Wednesday morning and
move into the western Atlantic by Wednesday evening. 

Ahead of the cold front, weak instability is forecast from southeast
Georgia to eastern North Carolina. This may be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorms, but weak instability should limit the
overall intensity of these storms. Additional lightning flashes are
possible beneath the cold upper-level temperatures across the
Northeast.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will
dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic
after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through
the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a
closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake
Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it
deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from
the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. 

...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern
Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the
day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm
sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the
morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the
front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day,
despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much
of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which
could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone
during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur
across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast. 

Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater
convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night.
However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe
weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across
the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where
upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate
instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a
few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be
somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak
low-level flow.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather potential will continue to be limited for Tuesday
despite widespread strong winds across the Plains. A surface cyclone
is forecast to develop today across the northern High Plains
followed by a period of steady intensification through Tuesday
evening as it shifts into the upper MS Valley/Midwest. Strong
northwesterly winds are expected to spread across much of the
central Plains behind an attendant cold front. Latest forecast
guidance suggests widespread winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35 mph)
are likely; however, an influx of continental air should modulate RH
reductions for most locations. Furthermore, the spatial extent of
dry fuels across NE into KS (where winds should be strongest)
appears limited due to rainfall over the past 72 hours.

..Moore.. 11/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today.
Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel
status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been
previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying
cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong
westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an
influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH
reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the
Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns.

..Moore.. 11/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated
activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from
eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and
sporadic large hail.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern
Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with
time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an
upper trough exits the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic
during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of
America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend
as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35
corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into
southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of
moisture overnight across MS.

...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss...
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from
North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with
southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift
north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample
deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail
at times.

To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary
layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb
initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well
as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late
afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.

Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold
front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z.
Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with
height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may
produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the
front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as
mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.

At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS
overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering
wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting
a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue
to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.

..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025