MD 0335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS....SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS


Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Arkansas....southeastern
Missouri...adjacent portions of western Kentucky and 
Tennessee...southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022048Z - 022245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway and
probably will persist into early evening, with potential for
intensification which could be accompanied by at least the risk for
a tornado or two.  It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch
will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently been initiating
in a broken band north of Poplar Bluff MO toward the Carbondale IL
vicinity.  This appears to be occurring along a corridor of better
low-level moisture return and weak developing surface pressure fall
axis, near the southern periphery of the mid-level cold pool
associated with negatively tilted short wave troughing progressing
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley. 

Destabilization has been sufficient to support only weak mixed-layer
CAPE.  This may not improve much through the remainder of the
afternoon, except perhaps across parts of northeastern Arkansas into
the Missouri Bootheel vicinity, based on latest Rapid Refresh
guidance.  Even so, this appears focused along the southeastern
periphery of a strong southerly low-level jet axis, including 40-50
kt speeds around 850 mb.  It appears possible that low-level
hodographs and thermodynamic profiles could become supportive of
supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes.  However, the
extent of this potential remains unclear.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON   38328857 37558852 35189028 35039105 36719087 38388970
            38328857 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MD 0334 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 89... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...FAR NORTHEAST MO


Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northwest IL...far northeast
MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...

Valid 022041Z - 022215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will spread
eastward through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has developed across parts of
central/southern IA and far northern MO, immediately in advance of
an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
surface low. A warm front extending eastward from the low continues
to move quickly northward, with ongoing storms expected to persist
as they move eastward across the warm sector. 

Ahead of the primary broken line of storms, a supercell has recently
intensified near Ottumwa, IA, where 2-hour surface pressure falls
were maximized on the 20Z surface analysis. This supercell recently
produced 2-inch diameter hail. While surface winds south of the warm
front remain somewhat veered, strong flow just above the surface
(50+ kt at 1-2 km AGL per area VWPs) is supporting 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 200 m2/s2, sufficient to support a tornado threat with
this supercell and any other warm-sector supercell through the
afternoon. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
continue to be possible. 

Farther southeast, convection is gradually increasing across far
northeast MO/southeast IA, and a supercell or two could evolve
within this region with time, with an attendant threat of all severe
hazards.

..Dean.. 04/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
            42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
            40299322 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

MD 0333 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN


Mesoscale Discussion 0333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...much of central and eastern Upper
Michigan...adjacent northeastern Wisconsin and portions of northern
Lower Michigan

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 021734Z - 022130Z

SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is likely to continue to
develop and overspread the region through 5-7 PM EDT, with primary
accrual on elevated surfaces and vegetation.

DISCUSSION...As a still sub-1000 mb surface cyclone continues to
migrate east-northeastward into and through portions of
southern/eastern Iowa this afternoon, a fairly sharp warm frontal
zone to its east-northeast is forecast to continue to surge
northward across Wisconsin and Michigan.  This is likely to occur
near the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, with strong
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing
maintaining light and developing embedded bands of moderate
precipitation.

While surface temperatures near or just below 30F are likely to also
be maintained at least into late afternoon or early evening, model
forecast soundings indicate notable warming above freezing in a
deepening layer above the surface, northward through much of central
and eastern Upper Michigan by 21-23Z.  As this occurs, precipitation
rates may support at least occasional hourly freezing rain accrual
in excess of .10 inches, perhaps up to .25 inches.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   45178681 44948770 45388892 46308828 46828705 46538410
            45548285 44678265 44718363 45378519 45178681

WW 0089 Status Updates


STATUS REPORT ON WW 89

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CDJ
TO 15 WNW OTM TO 25 WSW ALO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334

..DEAN..04/02/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...ARX...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 89 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-037-057-063-067-071-073-085-089-093-
095-099-103-109-111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-149-155-161-169-
171-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-022140-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BOONE               BROWN               
BUREAU               CARROLL             CASS                
DE KALB              FULTON              GRUNDY              
HANCOCK              HENDERSON           HENRY               
JO DAVIESS           KANE                KENDALL             
KNOX                 LA SALLE            LEE                 
MCDONOUGH            MCHENRY             MARSHALL            
MASON                MENARD              MERCER              
MORGAN               OGLE                PEORIA              
PIKE                 PUTNAM              ROCK ISLAND         
SCHUYLER             SCOTT               STARK               
STEPHENSON           TAZEWELL            WARREN              
WHITESIDE            WINNEBAGO           WOODFORD            


IAC007-011-019-031-045-051-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-

WW 89 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 021845Z - 030100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 89
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Iowa
  Northwest Illinois
  Northern Missouri
  Southern Wisconsin

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening across the watch area and track rapidly
northeastward.  A few supercells capable of damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Janesville
WI to 55 miles south southeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally,
damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa
northeast into Michigan.

...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI...
Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front
lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow
temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near
60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear
profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional
RAOBs.

Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and
southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of
the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A
few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts
are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor
belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
is the primary concern.

The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and
severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See
the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/

...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO.  A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low.  Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI.  Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL.  Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor.  However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening.  This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE
MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in
advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from
southeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Upper OH Valley and vicinity...
A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the
OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in
advance of an associated midlevel trough.  The typical uncertainties
surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area,
but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in
cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front
Saturday afternoon/evening.  Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel
flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential
for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the
front.  The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a
gradual weakening of convection expected overnight.

...Southeast TX to the Mid-South...
Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday
into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward
through the day.  Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and
surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning
convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) in the warm sector.  Wind profiles will be a little more
favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL
area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel
westerly flow.  The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind
damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and
midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and
likely influences of morning convection suggest additional
refinements are likely in later updates.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...Afternoon Update...
Portions of the northern and eastern Elevated risk were trimmed from
areas that saw appreciable rainfall in the last 48 hours. A dry cold
front will push through the central/southern High Plains D2/Friday
morning and afternoon, transporting a breezy post-frontal airmass
southward. Behind the front, spotty 15-25 mph sustained
northwesterly winds may overlap with RH below 20 percent. Given
uncertainty in the intersection of strongest winds and low RH,
critical highlights have been withheld, though localized critical
fire weather conditions may occur in east-central CO and northwest
KS. Farther south, a few hours of strong westerly downslope winds of
20+ mph (gusts up to 40 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are expected in
portions of central/eastern CO, which supports the continuation of
Critical fire weather highlights. Existing guidance ambivalence on
timing of the cold front arrival and RH reduction behind the front
enhances uncertainty in fire environment duration. However, due to
the risk of significant wildfire spread with the passage of the cold
front, these weather conditions should be closely monitored for both
new ignitions and any ongoing wildfires. 

...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana wind event will peak D2/Friday afternoon
as north-northeasterly sustained winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 50
mph) and very low RH of 10-15 percent traverse southern NV, the
Low/High Desert of CA, and the wind-prone areas surrounding the Los
Angeles Metro. These conditions support locally elevated fire
weather concerns for areas with drier fine fuels. 

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across
the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant
surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front
associated with this surface low will progress southward across the
central and southern High Plains.

...Central/eastern New Mexico...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the
previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains
will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern
Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow
is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with
sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap
very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of
15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire
weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains.
The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in
the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only
a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should
be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as
it could be problematic for fire spread.

...Central High Plains...
Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH
of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to
locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the
central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with
a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of
overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values
below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this
time, but this potential will continue to be monitored.

...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across
the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf
of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of
20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated
live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire
spread potential.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds.  A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

...Northern MO/southern IA area...
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to
southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by
early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD
during the day and IA/MN overnight.  Lingering steep midlevel lapse
rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and
south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the
cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective
mode evolution.  In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells
will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter).  All hazards will be modulated by the actual
mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode
dominates.  Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence
is low in the forecast details.

...Ozarks to northwest TX...
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather
widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX
along and just ahead of a surface cold front.  Weaknesses in
low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in
combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast
doubt on the potential for sustained supercells.  The more probable
hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind
damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.

...Southwest TX...
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the
Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande.  Isolated large hail/severe gusts
will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell
structures.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.

...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO.  A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low.  Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI.  Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL.  Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor.  However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening.  This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...Morning Update...
Parts of eastern CO and western KS experienced good overnight RH
recoveries, though will quickly dry once again out this afternoon
under peak heating and clear skies. In east-central NM, sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts 30+) are already being measured
this morning. As the surface low develops east of the Rockies,
combined surface lee troughing and gradient flow will support
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and coincident RH drops
below 20 percent across much of the Elevated risk area. A confined
region of Critical fire weather is expected in southeastern CO into
the OK/TX Panhandles where RH will drop below 15 percent as
sustained westerly veering to southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph
(gusts 35+) atop very dry fuels. See the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies
today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the
central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a
downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with
gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High
Plains.

...Central/southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient
flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far
southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values
forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief
periods of critical conditions are also possible farther
south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the
Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended
duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing
high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of
Critical highlights at this time.

Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH
values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across
adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the
northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed
from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...