Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader
west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing
multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS,
with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure
surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the
Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range
guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement
of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this
weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear
that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8
period.

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 1 08:41:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 1 08:41:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The chance for severe
thunderstorms currently appears very low.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will gradually deepen over the central and
eastern CONUS through the day Wednesday, resulting in widespread
surface high pressure overspreading most of the CONUS. Static
stability accompanying this widespread surface high pressure should
limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The one exception
will be portions of southeast TX into LA, where low-level lee
troughing ahead of the upper trough will support the development of
a southwesterly low-level jet. Warm-air advection will support both
elevated buoyancy and ascent for thunderstorm development through
the day Wednesday into early Thursday morning. If a more appreciable
surface-based airmass can advect inland, a couple of severe storms
cannot be ruled out. However, the confidence in this scenario is
currently too low for the introduction of severe probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western
half of the CONUS, a belt of moderate midlevel westerly flow will
overspread the southern Rockies during the day. In response, a lee
cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, further enhancing
the downslope flow across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle
/South Plains. While around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly
surface winds and 15-25 percent RH are expected, cold antecedent
conditions and limited/marginal fuels should mitigate most
fire-weather concerns. This will also be the case to the southeast
of the lee cyclone over western OK -- where dry/breezy southerly
return flow is expected amid marginal/unreceptive fuels.

..Weinman.. 12/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
On the backside of a positively tilted midlevel trough departing the
Rockies, surface high pressure will build over the Great
Basin/Intermountain West. This will yield an enhanced offshore
pressure gradient across southern CA, where moderate midlevel
northerly flow will be in place on the backside of the trough. These
factors will contribute to dry/breezy east-northeasterly surface
winds across the typical wind-prone mountains/valleys of Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties. While locally elevated conditions are
possible, marginal fuels should tend to limit the overall risk.

..Weinman.. 12/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief
tornado are possible Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Atlantic Coastline, with a
surface low poised to rapidly translate northeast from the eastern
Gulf Coast toward the New England coast tomorrow (Tuesday). During
the first half of the period, low-level warm-air advection ahead of
and to the north of the surface low will support primarily elevated
buoyancy overspreading the Southeast and Carolina coastlines.
Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are likely through
00Z Wednesday. 

...FL Panhandle...
During the first few hours of the period (e.g. 12-16Z Tuesday
morning), a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms (remnant
from the Day 1 period) may be ongoing along the FL Panhandle region.
Large, curved, and elongated hodographs may precede the ongoing
storms amid scant surface-based buoyancy within the warm-air
advection regime. Over 500 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap with 200-400
m2/s2 0-3 km SRH along the western fringes of a departing low-level
jet, supporting a risk for a damaging gust or perhaps a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the
Florida Panhandle late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance eastward from the
central Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MS Valley through the period.
To the south of this predominant feature, a subtle/low-amplitude
impulse will track east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states
-- gradually phasing with the aforementioned trough late in the
period. As this phasing occurs, low-level south-southwesterly flow
will strengthen beneath a belt of 50-kt midlevel westerly flow in
the 06-12Z time frame -- with the strongest low-level mass response
focusing over the Florida Panhandle. In the low-levels, an
increasingly defined frontal wave will develop eastward along an
east/west-oriented marine front draped along the immediate central
Gulf Coast -- approaching the western FL Panhandle by around 08-09Z
(with varying timing/placement among the latest model guidance).

...Florida Panhandle...
As the frontal wave evolves eastward in the vicinity of the FL
Panhandle, most guidance depicts middle/upper 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints overspreading the immediate coast between 08-12Z. Forecast
soundings suggest 67-68F dewpoints will yield weak surface-based
buoyancy over the coast. Any offshore supercells/organized clusters
that can move/develop into this weak (albeit sufficient)
surface-based buoyancy amid enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs will pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind risk over
the immediate coast. Despite a potentially limited spatial/temporal
overlap between the surface-based buoyancy and favorable low-level
shear, 2-percent tornado and 5-percent wind probabilities are
warranted where this overlap should be maximized ahead of the
frontal wave.

..Weinman.. 12/01/2025