Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the 850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances of hail and strong to severe wind. Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward, with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2026Read more